More Predictions, Expected Outcomes, and a Closing Statement

Projected All-State Cutoffs

When running race simulations, one can project team totals, winners, and where 30^th place lies in each race. The average 30^th place ratings were:

Division 1 Boys: 200
Division 2 Boys: 197
Division 3 Boys: 185
Division 4 Boys: 175

Division 1 Girls: 144
Division 2 Girls: 137
Division 3 Girls: 122
Division 4 Girls: 108

Peering at the weather, it’s about as ideal as you’ll get for MIS. A slight negative may be a tiny headwind in the finishing stretch, but it appears to be similar to 2023’s fast racing environment. Last year’s adjustments hovered around +20, which would make the projected 30^th place times:

Division 1 Boys: 15:40
Division 2 Boys: 15:49
Division 3 Boys: 16:25
Division 4 Boys: 16:55

Division 1 Girls: 18:28
Division 2 Girls: 18:51
Division 3 Girls: 19:34
Division 4 Girls: 20:16

Obviously, heed your coach’s strategy over these times. And if the weather suddenly turns horrific, block these out of your memory. These are all a prediction that I’m posting beforehand.

Expected Outcomes

If I told you that the Detroit Lions had a 51% chance of beating Green Bay and a 51% chance of beating Houston, the expectation would be that they’d win one game. Yes, they’re favorites in both, but 0.51 + 0.51 add up to 1.02, which is much closer to 1 than 2.

With odds given to winners and the podium, I don’t expect to be completely correct on all teams. We saw this in the regional setting, where the expectation was that I’d predict 198 of the 216 teams (and I was correct on 197 of them). If I had predicted less, perhaps I’d need to increase the uncertainty, if I was correct on all 216, then I was giving higher odds to underdogs than needed.

Anyhow, adding the percentages of the projected winners, I’m expected to be correct on 7 of the 8 winning teams. Where will that upset come from?

For the podium teams, those percentages add up to 13.6, so I’m expecting to be wrong on 2-3 trophy hoisting teams.

Looking Back to Summer

The reason I write the summer previews is I want cross country on your mind for as long a time as possible. But I better be accurate in it. 2018, I’ll throw out ‘cause I didn’t know what I was doing, but from 2019 on, I’ve been at 23/40 in predicting the state champion.

2024’s Summer Preview had:

Division 1 Boys: Northville
Division 2 Boys: Allendale
Division 3 Boys: Traverse City St. Francis
Division 4 Boys: Hillsdale Academy

Division 1 Girls: Romeo
Division 2 Girls: Goodrich
Division 3 Girls: Pewamo-Westphalia
Division 4 Girls: Whitmore Lake

I just want to stay above .500! Can you throw me a bone?

In Closing

I’ll see you all tomorrow. I’ll be helping in handing out All-State certificates with my fellow MITCA members. When not near the awards, I’ll be sauntering around, kissing babies, and shaking hands. I’ll be wearing the unofficial Speed Ratings shirt (now on its third iteration, one lost to a basement flood, the last one must’ve been left in my hotel room in Grand Rapids). If you see me, say hi, and please don’t be hurt if I take a second to recognize you. This brain is fried, but ready to enjoy a great day in celebration of the best sport in the world.