2025 Championship Projections: Upper Peninsula

October 17, 2025 mixcspeedratings

With the coming of championship season comes race projections!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev.
15:30 210
15:45 205
16:00 200
16:15 195
16:30 190 200 7.91
MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev.
16:09 197
16:12 196
16:15 195
16:18 194
16:21 193 195 1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating
1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6
2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1
3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2
4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5
5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7
6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1
7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9
8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9
9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0
10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6
11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5
12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4
13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6
14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1
15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6
16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2
17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2
18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6
19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1
20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

At the regional level, the projections were pretty darn accurate. I gave qualifying odds for the top-3 spots and ended up thinking I’d be accurate on 198 of the teams, the final total ended up being 197. The State level was a different story, where a few wholly unexpected teams hit the podium.

Anyhow, here they are for the Upper Peninsula.

DIVISION THREE

Girls

Projected	Team	Win %	Top-2 %	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	L’Anse	73	95+	1.3	61	1 to 2
2	Newberry	23	76	2.1	70	1 to 3
3	Ewen-Trout Creek		16	3.1	81	2 to 4
4	Stephenson		9	3.6	89	2 to 4
5	Brimley			5.4	142	5 to 6
6	Rapid River			6.1	155	5 to 7
7	St. Ignace			6.6	161	5 to 7
8	Chassell			8.5	201	8 to 9
9	Eben Jct. Superior Central			8.6	202	8 to 9
10	Dollar Bay			10.0	235	10

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Samantha Taylor	Newberry	1.0
2	9	Molly McNamara	Newberry	2.5
3	11	Abby Taylor	Newberry	2.9
4	12	Faith Cappaert	Stephenson	4.5
5	10	Bree Besonen	Ewen-Trout Creek	5.5
6	10	Princess Pierre	L’Anse	7.2
7	10	AJ Feleppa	St. Ignace	7.9
8	9	Evonna LaCosse	Big Bay de Noc	10.2
9	10	Lily Froese	L’Anse	11.5
10	10	Kwynn Voskuhl	L’Anse	11.6
11	9	Sophie Mahoski	Ishpeming	11.7
12	12	Emma Besonen	Ewen-Trout Creek	11.9
13	9	Autumn Broomfield	Watersmeet Township	11.9
14	9	Julia Poma	Rapid River	14.4
15	11	Gabriella Putnam	Stephenson	14.7
16	11	Sylvia Aho	Chassell	15.2
17	11	Bella Tarter	Forest Park	19.4
18	9	Sarah Chapman	Engadine	19.8
19	10	Rylie Cole	Stephenson	20.7
20	10	Aaliyah Maki	L’Anse	21.1

Boys

Projected	Team	Win %	Top-2 %	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Forest Park	95+	95+	1.0	63	1
2	Engadine		61	2.6	108	2 to 4
3	Stephenson		16	4.0	125	2 to 6
4	St. Ignace		8	4.1	127	2 to 6
5	Rock Mid-Peninsula		14	4.7	132	2 to 8
6	Dollar Bay			5.9	144	3 to 8
7	Rapid River			6.7	151	5 to 8
8	Eben Jct. Superior Central			6.9	154	6 to 8
9	Brimley			9.4	212	9 to 10
10	Newberry			9.6	215	9 to 10
11	Holy Name			11.0	252	11
12	Chassell			12.0	278	12

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Canon Kuntze	Stephenson	1.9
2	11	Ethan Snyder	Cedarville	2.7
3	9	Ashdeyn Gerow	Rock Mid-Peninsula	4.1
4	11	Kemper Gearhart	Ishpeming	4.8
5	10	Julian Suriano	Newberry	7.2
6	11	Jon Denkins	Rapid River	8.5
7	12	William Hoffman	Forest Park	8.6
8	10	Wyatt Huhn	St. Ignace	8.7
9	10	Hayden Smith	Forest Park	9.3
10	12	Joey Mainville	Forest Park	11.2
11	9	Eli Stiglitz	Rock Mid-Peninsula	11.8
12	10	Nate Stielstra	Engadine	12.9
13	9	Owen Truitt	Rapid River	12.9
14	11	Jae Poma	Rapid River	16.5
15	12	Duane Krenek	Engadine	17.4
16	8	Niko Reed	Dollar Bay	17.5
17	12	Cody Moore	Eben Jct. Superior Central	17.6
18	9	Reuben Rasner	Forest Park	17.9
19	12	Mateusz Wozniak	Ishpeming	18.4
20	12	Michael Rexford	Holy Name	21.1

DIVISION TWO

Girls

Projected	Team	Win %	Top-2 %	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Rudyard	94	95+	1.1	25	1 to 2
2	Hancock	6	95+	1.9	33	1 to 2
3	Ironwood			3.0	69	3

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Talya Schreiber	Pickford	1.0
2	9	Melissa Kirschner	Rudyard	3.1
3	10	Remi Coponen	Painesdale-Jeffers	4.0
4	10	Addie Bowerman	Munising	4.5
5	12	Olivia Cotey	Munising	6.4
6	12	Jill Berg	Hancock	8.1
7	11	Lauren Larson	Hancock	8.3
8	12	Lydia Pelli	Hancock	9.2
9	9	Ashlynn Mitchell	Rudyard	9.4
10	12	Lindsey Masterson	Rudyard	10.0
11	12	Claire Heltunen	Painesdale-Jeffers	11.2
12	10	Amelia Fountain	Rudyard	11.7
13	11	Kaylee Baldwin	Norway	14.2
14	12	Lauren Adams	Norway	14.3
15	11	Christy Lutch	Pickford	15.9
16	10	Aybri Sorensen	Baraga	17.2
17	11	Marie Thompson	Hancock	18.1
18	9	Emma Folkersma	Rudyard	18.7
19	12	Aubrey Balduc	Ironwood	19.0
20	12	Teryn Firack	Pickford	19.2

Boys

Projected	Team	Win %	Top-2 %	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Painesdale-Jeffers	95+	95+	1.0	29	1
2	Rudyard		95+	2.0	41	2
3	Munising			3.0	91	3
4	Manistique			4.1	122	4 to 5
5	Pickford			5.0	139	4 to 5
6	Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer			6.4	166	6 to 8
7	Ironwood			7.1	175	6 to 8
8	Hancock			7.5	183	6 to 8

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Cameron Anderson	Painesdale-Jeffers	1.3
2	12	Steven Kirschner	Rudyard	2.3
3	12	Landon Larson	Painesdale-Jeffers	2.8
4	11	Eli Folkersma	Rudyard	5.3
5	11	Blake Lakosky	Munising	5.4
6	10	Branson Anderson	Painesdale-Jeffers	6.5
7	11	Jacob Mitchell	Pickford	7.2
8	10	Blake Heltunen	Painesdale-Jeffers	7.9
9	12	Seth Templeton	Rudyard	9.3
10	9	John Green	Gwinn	10.6
11	11	Oliver Dankert	Rudyard	12.3
12	11	Brexton Kinnunen	Painesdale-Jeffers	13.9
13	11	Zaine Nichols	Rudyard	14.1
14	11	Tage Rajala	Painesdale-Jeffers	14.8
15	10	Kavin Jackson	Manistique	16.0
16	12	Kasen Helminen	Painesdale-Jeffers	16.2
17	10	Javan Hauswirth	Norway	16.7
18	9	Dylan Krause	Munising	18.9
19	11	Nolan Dolaskie	Munising	19.7
20	10	Bryce Mitchell	Rudyard	21.2

DIVISION ONE

Girls

Projected	Team	Win %	Top-2 %	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Marquette	95+	95+	1.0	34	1
2	Sault Ste. Marie		95+	2.0	60	2
3	Houghton			3.0	90	3
4	Negaunee			4.3	115	4 to 5
5	Calumet			4.7	126	4 to 5
6	Kingsford			6.0	155	6
7	Gladstone			7.1	182	7 to 8
8	Powers North Central			7.9	198	7 to 8
9	Ishpeming Westwood			9.0	223	9

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ella Fure	Marquette	1.0
2	9	Emma Ziegler	Marquette	2.6
3	10	Maria Murvich	Kingsford	2.7
4	11	Keira Waterman	Negaunee	6.0
5	10	Sela Niska	Houghton	6.8
6	10	Holly Cooke	Houghton	7.3
7	11	Winley Brandt	Menominee	8.4
8	10	Isabelle McCord	Sault Ste. Marie	8.5
9	12	Esme Ulland-Joy	Marquette	10.8
10	9	Avah Akerley	Escanaba	11.4
11	12	Stephanie Jones	Sault Ste. Marie	12.0
12	11	Eryn Veverka	Marquette	12.0
13	9	Cora Goulet	Sault Ste. Marie	14.2
14	11	Regan Sporte	Sault Ste. Marie	14.3
15	12	Nori Korsman	Negaunee	15.1
16	10	Evelyn Grant	Marquette	16.4
17	9	Ava Cantway	Marquette	16.8
18	12	Jovie Williams	Houghton	16.8
19	10	Olivia Koren	Marquette	20.0
20	10	Isabeau Woodard	Sault Ste. Marie	20.2

Boys

Projected	Team	Win %	Top-2 %	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Marquette	95+	95+	1.0	26	1
2	Sault Ste. Marie		95+	2.0	50	2
3	Houghton			3.5	107	3 to 5
4	Gladstone			3.7	112	3 to 5
5	Negaunee			5.2	128	4 to 6
6	Ishpeming Westwood			5.6	135	4 to 6
7	Kingsford			7.0	188	7
8	Escanaba			8.0	219	8

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Peter Argeropoulos	Marquette	1.7
2	12	Gabe Litzner	Sault Ste. Marie	2.5
3	12	Rorik Holmquist	Marquette	3.2
4	11	Lucas Ballard	Marquette	4.2
5	12	Henry Plummer	Negaunee	5.8
6	12	Shea Armstrong	Sault Ste. Marie	6.3
7	11	Cavan Mulligan	Kingsford	8.7
8	10	Lake Skytta	Marquette	10.2
9	12	Beepsee Teeple	Marquette	10.2
10	12	Adam Brandt	Sault Ste. Marie	11.0
11	12	Simon Jaklin	Negaunee	11.4
12	12	Benjamin Hemmer	Houghton	11.6
13	9	Calvin Carlson	Ishpeming Westwood	15.1
14	11	Chase Aldridge	Sault Ste. Marie	15.8
15	10	Welly Fillmore	Marquette	17.0
16	12	Daniel Bowerman	Sault Ste. Marie	17.1
17	12	Jared Waterman	Ishpeming Westwood	18.2
18	12	Teagan Reynolds	Gladstone	19.1
19	10	Brandon Van Karsen	Houghton	20.2
20	11	Kaden Malone	Powers North Central	20.6

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