My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!
The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.
An explanation from previous years that still holds true:
Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
Tanner Time
Tanner Rating
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev.
15:30
210
15:45
205
16:00
200
16:15
195
16:30
190
200
7.91
MIXCSR Time
MIXCSR Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev.
16:09
197
16:12
196
16:15
195
16:18
194
16:21
193
195
1.58
Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
Race
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev
Tanner Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev
MIXCSR Rating
1
200
7.9
202.1
195
1.6
195.6
2
200
7.9
196.2
195
1.6
194.1
3
200
7.9
190.0
195
1.6
199.2
4
200
7.9
193.4
195
1.6
192.5
5
200
7.9
206.8
195
1.6
195.7
6
200
7.9
201.8
195
1.6
196.1
7
200
7.9
171.6
195
1.6
194.9
8
200
7.9
189.2
195
1.6
195.9
9
200
7.9
205.5
195
1.6
197.0
10
200
7.9
203.8
195
1.6
192.6
11
200
7.9
192.3
195
1.6
196.5
12
200
7.9
196.9
195
1.6
196.4
13
200
7.9
198.5
195
1.6
195.6
14
200
7.9
203.2
195
1.6
194.1
15
200
7.9
193.9
195
1.6
192.6
16
200
7.9
199.3
195
1.6
193.2
17
200
7.9
208.7
195
1.6
194.2
18
200
7.9
213.7
195
1.6
194.6
19
200
7.9
212.6
195
1.6
197.1
20
200
7.9
206.3
195
1.6
193.9
I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
At the regional level, the projections were pretty darn accurate. I gave qualifying odds for the top-3 spots and ended up thinking I’d be accurate on 198 of the teams, the final total ended up being 197. The State level was a different story, where a few wholly unexpected teams hit the podium.
With that in mind, these simulations are a bit different than last year. Last year’s sample filtered out a runner’s lesser performances, which was fine in the regional setting, but didn’t account for the otherworldly MIS efforts that the Saline/Saugatuck boys had. In an attempt to capture more of the variant State Final performances, the samples for 2025 contain all of the invites and championship meets, hopefully giving more of an idea of how one performs when going to the well.
I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race over the past 4 weeks. This will attempt to account for injuries.
Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.
Bellaire and Petoskey St. Michael appear to be favorites. The Guardians are traditionally strong, this year no different, with four girls flashing sub-23 personal bests. The Eagles were Ski Valley champions, reigning over many of the same folk from this region. Ellsworth, Rogers City, and East Jordan also have a chance of qualifying. All were present at Mancelona, where Ellsworth was 2nd in the Small division. The Lancers were better than the Red Devils at pretty much every spot, though East Jordan found PRs from three of their six girls at the following Ski Valley meet. Rogers City didn’t have a full varsity lineup, but has had five girls in the past two meets. Just having numbers is a positive attribute in the far north of D4.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Bellaire
63
1.3
68
95+
2
Petoskey St. Michael
67
1.8
32
95+
3
East Jordan
83
3.8
40
4
Rogers City
86
4.3
36
5
Ellsworth
86
4.2
20
6
Indian River Inland Lakes
95
5.6
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Petoskey St. Michael
30
1.0
95+
95+
2
Mackinaw City
76
2.2
95+
3
Ellsworth
85
3.3
57
4
East Jordan
86
3.5
46
5
Hale
123
5.3
6
Lincoln-Alcona
129
5.7
7
Onaway
167
7.0
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Veronica Paga
Petoskey St. Michael
1.7
2
8
Amelia Hoyt
Bellaire
2.7
3
9
Lillian Coen
Ellsworth
3.3
4
11
Elizabeth Furman
Indian River Inland Lakes
6.3
5
10
Fenlynn Johnson
Rogers City
6.8
6
9
Josephine Furman
Indian River Inland Lakes
7.4
7
11
Danielle Agren
Johannesburg-Lewiston
7.8
8
10
Mea Wesley
Petoskey St. Michael
8.9
9
9
Madalyn Dewey
Bellaire
9.0
10
10
Bristol Skop
East Jordan
9.1
11
11
Avary Bearden
East Jordan
10.9
12
9
Reese Brege
Rogers City
11.3
13
11
Avery Langlois
Rogers City
11.9
14
11
Ruby Pletcher
Ellsworth
13.8
15
9
Grace Campbell
Bellaire
13.9
16
9
Sofia Cadarette
Petoskey St. Michael
15.8
17
12
Ella Nolan
Petoskey St. Michael
15.8
18
9
Nora Inman
East Jordan
18.6
19
11
Isabella Hocking
Bellaire
19.9
20
10
Juliet Inman
East Jordan
20.6
21
11
Margaret Newman
Indian River Inland Lakes
20.9
22
11
Morgan Reh
Bellaire
21.8
23
10
Keri Coolman
Rogers City
23.0
24
11
Ella Sponable
Ellsworth
23.0
25
12
Claire Shooks
Ellsworth
23.9
26
12
Lillyann Cooksey
Onaway
27.6
27
8
Tinly Richards
Boyne Falls
28.1
28
9
Laura Busick
Bellaire
28.7
29
10
Maleeya Hibbard
Ellsworth
28.7
30
9
Helena Ramsey
Petoskey St. Michael
31.2
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Cody Bradley
Petoskey St. Michael
1.3
2
12
Jack Sharar
Rogers City
2.7
3
12
Cole Brege
Rogers City
5.0
4
12
Cole Upper
Lincoln-Alcona
5.4
5
10
Caleb Chamberlin
Petoskey St. Michael
5.5
6
10
Zander Chellis
Ellsworth
6.1
7
12
Cole Upper
Alcona
6.4
8
10
Atticus Cadarette
Petoskey St. Michael
8.9
9
11
Jayden Dunnebeck
East Jordan
10.4
10
10
Ethan Sutton
East Jordan
10.8
11
12
Cole Abney
Ellsworth
12.6
12
10
Cole Wesley
Petoskey St. Michael
12.8
13
9
Cooper Feagan
Petoskey St. Michael
13.5
14
9
Knox Wilson
Mackinaw City
13.7
15
10
Logan Holden
Indian River Inland Lakes
15.0
16
12
Braylon Currie
Mackinaw City
15.1
17
9
Abraham Poel
East Jordan
16.1
18
12
Sean Bernard
Hale
18.9
19
9
Thomas Degrez
Hale
19.4
20
12
Paxton Downing
Hale
20.0
21
12
Ben Strittmatter
Mackinaw City
20.7
22
10
Mikey Sullivan
Mackinaw City
22.2
23
9
Mason Dawson
Ellsworth
23.2
24
7
Clayton VanOrman
Mackinaw City
24.4
25
10
Dominik Kranz
Petoskey St. Michael
26.6
26
9
Deacon Szymoniak
Onaway
26.7
27
9
Bjorn Johnson
Rogers City
26.7
28
12
Darren Boyat
Lincoln-Alcona
27.0
29
11
Jack Puroll
Ellsworth
27.1
30
12
Darren Boyat
Alcona
29.3
REGION 29
Any Big Battles?
The Traverse City area is the Mecca of Division 4 running. The NWC and WMD Conferences are at the center of it. In the League Week Rankings, seven teams along the high Lake Michigan coast were present in the top-27. From those seven squads, three stand out: Maple City Glen Lake, Buckley, and Grand Traverse Academy. Each team has their argument for capturing a regional crown. For the Lakers, it’s their league action, where they placed ahead of Buckley on all three occasions. But Buckley knows that in a big field, their Bears can find success, such as Bluejay, where their top-four were all sub-21:30, enroute to a runner-up finish in the Jays division. One point behind there was GTA. However, at Northern Michigan, the Mustangs were able to avenge that narrow defeat, all five of their scorers hitting sub-22, winning the D4 section. The three are projected within three points of one another, each with a fighter’s chance.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Maple City Glen Lake
62
1.8
40
95+
2
Buckley
63
2.0
35
95+
3
Grand Traverse Academy
65
2.2
25
95+
4
Onekama
91
4.1
5
Bear Lake
107
4.9
6
Mason County Eastern
171
6.0
7
Mesick
188
7.2
8
Pentwater
196
7.8
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Maple City Glen Lake
28
1.0
95+
95+
2
Mesick
88
2.4
95+
3
Leland
94
2.9
81
4
Grand Traverse Academy
112
4.6
9
5
Mason County Eastern
114
5.0
10
6
Buckley
117
5.1
7
Lake Leelanau St. Mary
162
7.2
8
Bear Lake
174
7.8
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
10
Callie Sinke
Onekama
1.5
2
10
Sophia Grinage
Leland
1.6
3
10
Carmella Julian
Maple City Glen Lake
4.0
4
9
Ava Higley
Frankfort
4.7
5
11
Addy Zeller
Onekama
5.1
6
12
Mirthe Breuker
Buckley
9.8
7
9
Alyse Cox
Maple City Glen Lake
9.8
8
11
Natalie Burpee
Leland
10.1
9
11
Amelia McKinney
Grand Traverse Academy
10.9
10
10
Melodie Hulinek
Bear Lake
10.9
11
12
Alyssa Spicer
Mesick
12.3
12
11
Addison Patrzik
Grand Traverse Academy
14.1
13
11
Mikayla Kulawiak
Buckley
14.7
14
12
Kinsey Peer
Buckley
15.3
15
12
Addison Jarosz
Frankfort
15.3
16
11
Madison Smith
Grand Traverse Academy
16.7
17
9
Zakia Wagoner
Onekama
16.7
18
10
Alayna Ottenbacher
Maple City Glen Lake
16.8
19
9
Brooklyn Griffin
Buckley
17.5
20
9
Ellie Wright
Maple City Glen Lake
17.6
21
11
Tess Hoedel
Grand Traverse Academy
18.5
22
9
Tessa Rutherford
Bear Lake
19.9
23
12
Willa Roth
Frankfort
23.3
24
11
Bailey Case
Pentwater
25.1
25
10
Maria Schwerin
Grand Traverse Academy
27.2
26
12
Addisen Harrand
Buckley
27.5
27
9
Autumn Patrzik
Grand Traverse Academy
27.6
28
12
Natalie Brown
Bear Lake
28.5
29
11
Tsune DuCheney
Buckley
28.6
30
11
Kaylee Swanson
Buckley
29.2
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Kyle Redman
Mesick
1.7
2
11
Ty Redman
Mesick
2.6
3
9
Spencer McNitt
Maple City Glen Lake
2.9
4
11
Abraham Feeney
Maple City Glen Lake
3.2
5
11
Daniel Chaney
Lake Leelanau St. Mary
5.8
6
9
Christian Feeney
Maple City Glen Lake
6.2
7
12
Liam McCaw
Maple City Glen Lake
6.9
8
11
Lincoln Bailey
Maple City Glen Lake
10.0
9
10
Owen Jarosz
Frankfort
10.3
10
10
Lance Niedzielski
Mason County Eastern
11.3
11
12
Keith Crompton
Frankfort
12.3
12
10
Carter Suttmann
Leland
12.6
13
9
Ethan Harrand
Buckley
12.8
14
10
Campbell Fedderman
Leland
16.4
15
10
Nolan Koscinski
Bear Lake
16.7
16
10
Beckett Dennis
Grand Traverse Academy
17.4
17
10
Christopher Knudsen
Leland
17.7
18
11
Nate Gorman
Traverse City Christian
18.7
19
9
Easton Harrand
Buckley
19.8
20
11
Milo Shoup
Mason County Eastern
20.5
21
10
Kaiden Lague
Mason County Eastern
21.8
22
12
Matthew Bentley
Buckley
24.3
23
9
Kyle Doty
Mesick
25.5
24
9
Jaxon Williams
Grand Traverse Academy
25.7
25
9
Holden Preneta
Leland
26.1
26
12
Isaac Whipple
Grand Traverse Academy
26.3
27
11
Eli Willoughby
Grand Traverse Academy
27.0
28
11
Britton Wheeler
Maple City Glen Lake
27.7
29
11
Mason Howell
Marion
28.9
30
So
Mason Jager
Traverse City Christian
28.9
REGION 30
Any Big Battles?
Both individual races. Both involve the Breckenridge Huskies, a team with its paw prints all over D4 in recent years, featuring a 2019 boys state title and multiple girls teams with regional titles. They’ve got two outstanding individuals – Maizy Matthews and Anthony Rowe. Matthews was undefeated in MSAC action and just comes off a personal best, just slightly above 20-flat. Rowe also hit a personal best at Northern Michigan and found wins in the past two MSAC Jamborees. Runner-up to Rowe in the MSAC Championship was Brady Edwards, who owns the fastest PR in the field, a 16:19 in the early morning at Portage. Projected first on the girls side is the girl of many talents, Claire Long. In the spring, Long was one of D4’s best sprinters, division champ in the 400m and 3rd in the 200m. She was 4th here as a freshman, missed much of last season, but is healthy again, ripping a 19:27 at Saginaw County.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
36
1.0
95+
95+
2
Breckenridge
51
2.1
95+
3
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
60
2.9
95+
4
Vestaburg
80
4.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
33
1.0
95+
95+
2
Breckenridge
50
2.0
95+
3
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
97
3.2
88
4
Beal City
127
4.4
10
5
Carson City-Crystal
129
4.5
6
Montabella
166
6.4
7
Saginaw Arts & Science
168
6.6
8
Vestaburg
200
8.4
9
Saginaw Nouvel
202
8.5
10
St. Charles
262
10.0
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Claire Long
Saginaw Nouvel
1.4
2
10
Maizy Matthews
Breckenridge
1.7
3
10
Skylar Maclennan
Fulton
3.4
4
12
Olive Wakefield
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
4.9
5
11
Jessica Stouten
Vestaburg
6.2
6
9
Maezee Humm
Breckenridge
7.3
7
12
Emma McCarty
Carson City-Crystal
10.1
8
9
Natalie Kettler
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
11.3
9
10
Anna McCarty
Carson City-Crystal
12.0
10
10
Piper Schultz
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
12.1
11
12
Laura Bigard
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
12.5
12
10
Dilyn Colpean
Merrill
12.8
13
10
Peyton Rohn
Ashley
13.5
14
11
Nolee Leppert
Beal City
14.0
15
10
Taylor Wills
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
14.4
16
12
Ally Schmitz
Breckenridge
14.9
17
9
Sadie Mueller
St. Charles
16.0
18
11
Greta Schroeder
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
17.1
19
9
Amada Price
Fulton
20.1
20
10
Saralynn Shelley
Montabella
20.1
21
12
Phoebe Schultz
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
21.1
22
11
Aisly Taylor
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
22.8
23
11
Cora Carver
Vestaburg
22.9
24
9
Kacie Chaffee
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
25.0
25
11
Kaylie McCracken
Carson City-Crystal
25.9
26
9
Macie Bush
Breckenridge
26.0
27
12
Johanna Hubble
Beal City
26.2
28
9
Lilly Dubridge
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
28.0
29
11
Ryann Ball
Montabella
28.5
30
11
Ellie Bowerman
Beal City
28.6
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Brady Edwards
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
1.8
2
11
Anthony Rowe
Breckenridge
1.8
3
12
Jonah Pollatz
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
4.2
4
11
Wesley Chaffee
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
5.3
5
11
Amos Norder
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
6.0
6
12
Carter Clark
Carson City-Crystal
6.6
7
9
Oliver Burt
Breckenridge
8.2
8
11
Rush Marsden
Fulton
8.3
9
11
Dominick Chiverton
Breckenridge
9.8
10
11
Noah Dubridge
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
11.6
11
12
Nathan Cromar
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
12.6
12
9
Gus Barr
Breckenridge
13.9
13
9
Eli Baker
Coleman
14.3
14
12
Conner Fenton
Beal City
16.2
15
12
Amos Miller
Saginaw Arts & Science
16.3
16
11
Trevor Dolloff
Ashley
18.2
17
10
Logan Funnell
Beal City
18.5
18
9
Abram Fettig
Saginaw Nouvel
19.4
19
12
Caleb Hebert
Big Rapids Crossroads Academy
20.3
20
12
Demetrius Gondek
Vestaburg
21.2
21
10
MJ Flowers
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
21.9
22
10
Jonathan Egan
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
22.2
23
11
Payton Crawfis
Carson City-Crystal
23.2
24
9
Simon Norder
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
23.7
25
9
James Sanders
Breckenridge
23.9
26
10
Owen Zeien
Beal City
25.8
27
10
Cayd Wohlscheid
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
27.4
28
12
Bryce White
Montabella
27.9
29
11
Logan Whitmer
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
28.4
30
9
Daniel Malott
Saginaw Nouvel
29.7
REGION 31
Any Big Battles?
Races appear fairly straight forward across the board, top-ten squads such as Gobles’ girls or the Holland Calvary Christian boys as heavy favorites to win. Libby Smith is having herself a year, so the main intrigue falls in the boys individual race. Christian Getz and Noah Schipper have been running 1-2 for the Crusaders on their many escapades. Each found a personal best at Bluejay, racing to 16:23 and 16:25, respectively. Lincoln Laansma, a 2024 All-Stater, owns a slightly faster PB and faced off against the two at Autumn Sunrise, coming in 5 sec. ahead of Getz on the Covenant Christian course.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Gobles
31
1.1
91
95+
2
Martin
39
1.9
9
95+
3
Fowler
83
3.1
87
4
St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic
98
4.1
13
5
Vermontville Maple Valley
106
4.8
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Holland Calvary Christian
25
1.0
95+
95+
2
Portland St. Patrick
97
2.4
93
3
Fowler
107
3.2
67
4
Gobles
110
3.5
40
5
Martin
171
5.6
6
Byron Center Zion Christian
174
5.7
7
Tri-Unity Christian
195
7.3
8
Hesperia
201
7.7
9
St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic
225
9.3
10
Muskegon Catholic Central
228
9.6
11
Vermontville Maple Valley
262
11.1
12
Lawrence
278
11.8
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Libby Smith
Gobles
1.1
2
11
Veyda Conley
Martin
2.2
3
8
Faith Schipper
Holland Calvary Christian
3.6
4
9
Ryleigh Alderink
Holton
4.6
5
11
Lauren Shaffer
Gobles
4.7
6
10
Zoe Fabing
Fowler
7.0
7
11
Lindsey Nordyke
Byron Center Zion Christian
7.3
8
11
Ava DeYoung
Gobles
7.7
9
10
Madison Deutschmann
Byron Center Zion Christian
9.5
10
10
Allison Rodgers
Martin
11.1
11
12
Madison Cooley
Gobles
11.9
12
10
DuRae Sage
Martin
14.0
13
11
Sara Schipper
Martin
15.0
14
9
Nora Schultz
St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic
15.6
15
12
Alison Rotman
Holland Calvary Christian
15.8
16
9
Riley Bender
Martin
16.4
17
11
Marian Davlin
Portland St. Patrick
16.5
18
10
Laura Rotman
Holland Calvary Christian
17.9
19
9
Melanie Jones
Vermontville Maple Valley
19.5
20
10
Addison Tomsic
Gobles
21.3
21
11
Rokhaya Ruhstorfer
Hesperia
21.3
22
12
Olivia Thelen
Fowler
21.4
23
8
Ella Blumberg
St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic
21.6
24
11
Kerigan Pung
Fowler
24.4
25
9
Emma Dettmann
Martin
24.6
26
12
Izabelle Soper
Vermontville Maple Valley
27.2
27
9
Taylor Cooley
Gobles
28.8
28
10
Marianna Simon
Fowler
28.9
29
12
Alice Kadlecova
Martin
29.3
30
10
Alyssa Sparks
Gobles
29.4
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Christian Getz
Holland Calvary Christian
1.9
2
11
Noah Schipper
Holland Calvary Christian
2.2
3
10
Lincoln Laansma
Tri-Unity Christian
2.2
4
11
Gibson White
Holland Calvary Christian
4.1
5
12
Timothy Chamberlain
Portland St. Patrick
6.1
6
12
Quentin Smith
Fowler
6.4
7
11
Francis Austen
Portland St. Patrick
8.2
8
11
Brody VanTuinen
Holland Calvary Christian
9.7
9
10
Reagan Downing
Holland Calvary Christian
10.5
10
11
Owen Ledebuhr
Holland Calvary Christian
12.2
11
12
Freddie Bierling
Byron Center Zion Christian
12.4
12
12
Lukas Rennells
Muskegon Catholic Central
12.8
13
11
Caleb Adkins
Holland Calvary Christian
13.0
14
11
Nate Ruhstorfer
Hesperia
14.3
15
9
Fletcher Amos
Gobles
14.4
16
10
Cole Ringel
Gobles
17.3
17
11
Landon Miller
Fowler
17.5
18
12
Isaac FoxElster
Portland St. Patrick
17.7
19
9
Levi Oudbier
Tri-Unity Christian
18.0
20
12
Liam Kamp
Libertas Christian
18.1
21
11
Jadon Dettmann
Martin
21.5
22
11
Jaxon Bunce
Gobles
23.7
23
10
Levi Knoop
Portland St. Patrick
24.8
24
12
Xavier Simon
Fowler
25.7
25
10
Andy Lopez-Garcia
Hesperia
26.4
26
10
Jackson Anderson
Muskegon Catholic Central
26.8
27
9
Dexton Feldpausch
Fowler
27.3
28
10
Levi Collins
Gobles
28.7
29
10
Keannan Marr
Holton
29.3
30
11
Gari Salvador-Garcia
Martin
32.2
REGION 32
Any Big Battles?
The third spot on the girls side.
As they’re a podium contender next week, the Kalamazoo Hackett girls will likely win. The host, Three Oaks River Valley, has improved over the course of the season, especially from Helen Donner, who has dropped 1.5 minutes from her freshman best. White Pigeon was the third qualifier from 2024 and Battle Creek St. Philip had three girls hit their season/lifetime best at the Battle Creek City Meet.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Kalamazoo Hackett
17
1.0
95+
95+
2
Three Oaks River Valley
67
2.0
95+
3
Battle Creek St. Philip
86
3.3
74
4
White Pigeon
90
3.8
25
5
Eau Claire
104
4.9
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Kalamazoo Hackett
32
1.0
95+
95+
2
Three Oaks River Valley
53
2.0
95+
3
White Pigeon
89
3.1
87
4
New Buffalo
115
4.5
8
5
Athens
122
4.9
5
6
Eau Claire
137
5.6
7
Colon
161
6.9
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Emma Riker
Kalamazoo Hackett
1.2
2
11
Kiera Piper
Kalamazoo Hackett
2.6
3
12
Rowan Allen
Mendon
3.0
4
11
Brie Siems
Kalamazoo Hackett
4.1
5
12
Kate Van Es
Kalamazoo Hackett
5.9
6
10
Delaney McBride
Kalamazoo Hackett
7.3
7
10
Abigail Riker
Kalamazoo Hackett
8.6
8
11
Ella Hendrixson
Three Oaks River Valley
9.3
9
11
Helen Donner
Three Oaks River Valley
9.8
10
12
Rachel Byler
White Pigeon
10.0
11
12
Bethany Carpenter
Kalamazoo Hackett
11.5
12
11
Harper Bowman
New Buffalo
11.8
13
11
Emmy Nofs
Battle Creek St. Philip
13.5
14
11
Sarah Stemaly
Athens
14.7
15
10
Brittney Hernandez
Three Oaks River Valley
14.9
16
9
Annabell Bent
Marcellus
16.3
17
9
Marnie Wright
Battle Creek St. Philip
18.0
18
12
Sandra Alavrez
Eau Claire
18.8
19
9
Belle Noga
Colon
18.9
20
12
Yuri Ramirez
Eau Claire
20.9
21
9
Soni Stahlschmidt
New Buffalo
21.5
22
11
Elizabeth Martin
White Pigeon
23.5
23
12
Kaitlyn Nealis
Decatur
23.8
24
12
Elliana Fenstermaker
Heritage Christian Academy
24.1
25
10
Maia Cavanaugh
Heritage Christian Academy
26.1
26
11
Elsa Strenge
Battle Creek St. Philip
26.1
27
12
Betzabé Villa
Three Oaks River Valley
27.5
28
12
Alexis Slater
Athens
28.6
29
12
Martha Tran
Decatur
30.0
30
11
Aura Perez
Colon
30.0
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Marek Butkiewicz
Kalamazoo Hackett
1.0
2
12
Landon Rogers
Three Oaks River Valley
2.6
3
12
Sean Siems
Kalamazoo Hackett
3.2
4
9
Mason Rogers
Three Oaks River Valley
3.4
5
12
Jesse Fielis
White Pigeon
6.1
6
11
Elias Baldwin
Decatur
6.4
7
10
Kadin McGee
Decatur
8.3
8
11
Kellen Siems
Kalamazoo Hackett
8.6
9
10
Joseph Edwards
New Buffalo
9.7
10
11
Max Barron
Tekonsha
11.8
11
9
Lukasz Butkiewicz
Kalamazoo Hackett
12.3
12
12
Charlie Gibson
Three Oaks River Valley
14.3
13
11
Kyron Christner
Mendon
14.8
14
10
Nathaneal Karakula
Heritage Christian Academy
15.9
15
11
Colin Gallagher
Kalamazoo Hackett
17.4
16
10
Seth Crown
Heritage Christian Academy
17.6
17
9
Henry Young
Kalamazoo Hackett
18.6
18
12
David Lane
White Pigeon
19.9
19
11
Alejandro Lemus
Eau Claire
22.1
20
10
Leo Lemieux
New Buffalo
23.6
21
11
Jay Bronsink
Athens
23.7
22
12
Parker Volstorf
Three Oaks River Valley
24.9
23
12
Ethan O’Connor
Athens
25.1
24
11
Aiden Jackson
White Pigeon
25.7
25
12
Damien Martinez
Kalamazoo Hackett
25.9
26
9
Mike Hernandez
Three Oaks River Valley
26.0
27
11
Dilan Vargas
Eau Claire
26.3
28
12
Lucas Dudley
Mendon
28.0
29
12
Dalton Williams
Colon
30.1
30
10
William Throw
White Pigeon
30.4
REGION 33
Any Big Battles?
Hard to pick between the girls and boys races.
Both feature a rising Novi Christian Academy, both of the Warrior outfits having a breakout performance at Larry Steeb and in the MIAC Championship. Genesee Christian has moved into the 3rd spot in the girls race, mainly thanks to the emergence of Tori Ferguson, who has found the 21’s after an early season string of 23 min.+ performances. Webberville’s boys also had a strong showing at Larry Steeb, a mere 20 points behind Whitmore Lake. The Spartans rely on a very strong top-three, all under 17:45. That may be more advantageous further down the line, but definitely an aid here.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Whitmore Lake
21
1.0
95+
95+
2
Lansing Christian
62
2.0
95+
3
Genesee Christian Academy
99
3.4
62
4
Novi Christian Academy
103
3.7
36
5
Clarkston Everest Collegiate
124
5.1
6
Dansville
134
5.7
7
Byron
180
7.4
8
Webberville
182
7.6
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Whitmore Lake
45
1.0
95+
95+
2
Genesee Christian Academy
77
2.5
92
3
Webberville
81
3.0
72
4
Novi Christian Academy
92
3.6
36
5
Lansing Christian
125
5.3
6
Dansville
142
6.0
7
Byron
156
6.8
8
Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes
177
7.9
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Kaylie Livingston
Whitmore Lake
1.1
2
12
Carina Burchi
Whitmore Lake
2.9
3
10
Malynda Lambros
Whitmore Lake
3.3
4
11
Adrienne Mitchell
Lansing Christian
6.9
5
12
Elodie Weaver
Whitmore Lake
6.9
6
12
Sofia Robertson
Whitmore Lake
7.3
7
10
Andi Kirkman
Genesee Christian Academy
8.5
8
12
Delaney Richardson
Byron
9.1
9
10
Allison Schmitt
Clarkston Everest Collegiate
10.4
10
9
Cassa Minnis
Dansville
10.4
11
11
Annie Wernet
Lansing Christian
10.6
12
10
Madison Markowicz
Novi Christian Academy
13.0
13
12
Tori Ferguson
Genesee Christian Academy
13.6
14
11
Evelyn McIndoe
Novi Christian Academy
14.0
15
10
Gabriella Wood
Lansing Christian
14.1
16
12
Alaina Driver
Potterville
15.2
17
12
Juliette Tallon
Lansing Christian
17.2
18
12
Nadia Barnes
Novi Christian Academy
20.2
19
11
Makenna Bush
Lansing Christian
20.5
20
11
Caroline Darrah
Whitmore Lake
22.1
21
12
Bree DeLano
Dansville
22.7
22
12
Evie Kirkman
Genesee Christian Academy
23.6
23
11
Natasha Mendez
Clarkston Everest Collegiate
24.0
24
10
Mariah Diaz
Lansing Christian
24.9
25
11
Amy Yong
Ann Arbor Rudolf Steiner
25.2
26
11
Jane Wilder
Webberville
26.1
27
10
Ariana Stewart
Genesee Christian Academy
28.1
28
12
Yazmine Beverly
Webberville
29.0
29
9
Ella Baron
Clarkston Everest Collegiate
31.0
30
12
Abigail Yatooma
Novi Christian Academy
31.4
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Landen Livingston
Whitmore Lake
1.2
2
12
Reuben Jiran
Novi Christian Academy
3.8
3
10
Nathan West
Webberville
3.9
4
12
Ian Ferguson
Genesee Christian Academy
5.1
5
10
Nolan Stadel
Genesee Christian Academy
5.3
6
12
Ben Young
Lansing Christian
8.1
7
11
Brody Jeruzal
Ann Arbor Christian
8.3
8
9
Gabe Schultz
Genesee Christian Academy
10.1
9
12
Gavin Howery
Webberville
10.2
10
10
Nolan Collins
Whitmore Lake
11.3
11
12
Nathan Camilleri
Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes
13.5
12
11
Kasey Springer
Whitmore Lake
14.2
13
10
Jackson Onofre
Novi Christian Academy
14.8
14
12
Ethan West
Webberville
15.6
15
10
Leo Weaver
Whitmore Lake
16.2
16
11
Joseph White
Ann Arbor Rudolf Steiner
16.4
17
11
Benjamin Fox
Whitmore Lake
16.7
18
9
Carter Castilla
Dansville
18.0
19
10
Richard Lewis
Whitmore Lake
20.3
20
11
Brayden Steele
Byron
20.4
21
12
Elijah Ozenbaugh
Whitmore Lake
20.8
22
10
Evan Klish
Novi Christian Academy
23.5
23
10
Reid Hacker
Dansville
24.0
24
9
Ryan Stewart
Genesee Christian Academy
25.9
25
11
Luke Meyer
Lansing Christian
27.6
26
11
Jonah Spencer
Byron
28.5
27
11
Halston Hooley
Byron
28.6
28
9
Jack Bell
Novi Christian Academy
30.2
29
12
Matthew Howery
Webberville
30.5
30
9
Kai Hopkins
Potterville
30.8
REGION 34
Any Big Battles?
Gotta be Petersburg-Summerfield vs. Hudson. Despite the small 35-mile separation between the schools, the two haven’t faced off against each other this fall. What I can say is that both sets of girls have had some of their better team efforts of late. For the Tigers, it was at their home invite, where they were 3rd in the lower division. Last week, Petersburg-Summerfield was able to capture the TCC Championship. Placing four girls in the top-six was dominating enough early to clinch the victory no matter what happened late. Present there was a common opponent between the two – Sand Creek, a team that bested Hudson at Hudson Booster.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Hillsdale Academy
24
1.0
95+
95+
2
Concord
50
2.0
95+
3
Petersburg-Summerfield
92
3.3
75
4
Hudson
98
3.8
25
5
Manchester
142
5.1
6
Pittsford
152
5.9
7
Jackson Preparatory
171
7.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Hillsdale Academy
18
1.0
95+
95+
2
Manchester
85
2.3
95+
3
Concord
91
2.8
94
4
Jackson Preparatory
107
3.9
9
5
Hudson
134
5.0
6
Petersburg-Summerfield
170
6.4
7
Addison
174
6.8
8
Vandercook Lake
187
7.8
9
Reading
233
9.0
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Evelyn Meyer
Hillsdale Academy
1.3
2
9
Audrey Pyle
Concord
3.8
3
9
Heather Morris
Hillsdale Academy
6.1
4
11
Haley Stimer
Concord
6.4
5
9
Eliza Roberts
Hillsdale Academy
6.5
6
12
Annabelle Czeiszperger
Hudson
6.7
7
12
Elizabeth Caspar
Hillsdale Academy
7.2
8
11
Allie Miller
Hillsdale Academy
7.8
9
9
Audrey Rinehart
Concord
9.0
10
11
Maren Gehrke
Hillsdale Academy
9.2
11
12
Mary Schlueter
Hillsdale Academy
9.2
12
12
Makenzie Wolfe
Petersburg-Summerfield
10.1
13
10
Allison Ost
Petersburg-Summerfield
11.6
14
12
Cieara Barrett
Concord
14.8
15
10
Abby Raymond
Petersburg-Summerfield
16.1
16
10
Ellie Woodring
Addison
16.6
17
12
Grace Raymond
Petersburg-Summerfield
16.6
18
12
Naika Rath
Hudson
17.8
19
10
Mya Barrett
Concord
18.5
20
11
Lillian Jagielski
Pittsford
19.2
21
9
Braelynn Thorrez
Concord
19.3
22
9
Danaja Williams
Pittsford
22.8
23
11
Caroline Mason
Manchester
23.0
24
12
Taylor Kopin
Hudson
23.3
25
11
Teagan Clarke
Manchester
26.5
26
11
Miley Rising
Hudson
26.6
27
9
Elizabeth Falater
Reading
27.4
28
12
Valorie Hieber
Manchester
27.6
29
11
Hannah Ryan
Concord
28.3
30
12
Gabriela Harvel
Jackson Preparatory
30.2
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Grayson Rorick
Hillsdale Academy
1.0
2
12
Luke Molenkamp
Hillsdale Academy
3.3
3
11
Timothy Gaebler
Hillsdale Academy
4.1
4
12
Henry Lindley
Hillsdale Academy
4.8
5
10
Peter Winn
Hillsdale Academy
5.6
6
12
Grant Johnson
Manchester
6.8
7
11
Alec Dodak
Manchester
7.3
8
12
Corey Dubnicki
Jackson Preparatory
7.3
9
12
Maddox Hutchinson
Concord
9.1
10
9
Henry Rorick
Hillsdale Academy
10.0
11
12
Paul Herendeen
Concord
11.4
12
11
Drake Fenstermaker
Camden-Frontier
12.0
13
11
Carson Van Sickle
Hillsdale Academy
13.9
14
9
Blake Aube
Hudson
15.0
15
12
Dallas Swaenepoel
Vandercook Lake
15.0
16
10
Jacob Tatsak
Adrian Lenawee Christian
15.4
17
11
Keaton Smith
Concord
16.6
18
11
David Bauer
Morenci
20.1
19
9
Brayden Patrick
Jackson Preparatory
22.1
20
9
Asher Church
Hillsdale Will Carleton
22.9
21
11
Mohamed Adow
Morenci
23.3
22
9
Braydn Patrick
Jackson Preparatory
23.4
23
10
David Arbogast
Vandercook Lake
23.8
24
So
Tony Gudakunst
Addison
24.4
25
9
Connor Evans
Addison
24.8
26
11
Michael Navitskis
Manchester
26.6
27
12
Justin Gale
Manchester
27.3
28
9
Thomas Bastian
Jackson Preparatory
27.9
29
11
Colin Brown
Petersburg-Summerfield
28.2
30
10
Jericho Borck
Hudson
32.4
REGION 35
Any Big Battles?
You can always find a close battle between these Thumb teams. This year’s version could be for the third girls qualifier, between Dryden and Harbor Beach. The Pirates have been on their best behavior in October, hitting their highest team average at Ubly, then following that up with a 2nd place finish in the BTC Black. Winner however, was Dryden in the BTC Blue/Red (which color, I have no clue). The two have faced off this fall, won by Harbor Beach, although Dryden wasn’t able to field a full squad. Luckily, the Cardinals have added to their lineup and are now in the discussion to advance.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Ubly
49
1.1
91
95+
2
Kingston
63
2.2
9
95+
3
Harbor Beach
76
3.2
66
4
Dryden
80
3.6
37
5
Kinde North Huron
122
5.3
6
Brown City
128
5.7
7
Marlette
154
7.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Dryden
79
1.5
54
95+
2
Ubly
81
1.6
46
95+
3
Unionville-Sebewaing
107
3.1
83
4
Harbor Beach
134
4.8
7
5
Brown City
142
5.5
8
6
Mayville
150
6.1
7
Marlette
153
6.2
8
Kingston
168
7.6
9
Vassar
197
8.9
10
Deckerville
232
10.8
11
Caseville
237
11.0
12
Peck
238
11.0
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
9
Norah Kiley
Kingston
2.0
2
12
Cara Prusakiewicz
Dryden
2.4
3
12
Lilah Kiley
Kingston
3.2
4
12
Katie Sweeney
Ubly
4.4
5
10
Alyvia Janke
Unionville-Sebewaing
4.8
6
10
Payton King
Kingston
6.7
7
10
Claire Wright
Dryden
8.2
8
10
Abbygail Plester
Ubly
8.9
9
12
Madison Prowse
Brown City
9.4
10
11
Cailin Spearman
Harbor Beach
9.5
11
10
Myah Peruski
Ubly
11.7
12
9
Ella Gustner
Dryden
13.7
13
9
Rachel Becker
Unionville-Sebewaing
15.2
14
10
Brooklyn Morell
Ubly
15.7
15
10
Esther Bulgrien
Harbor Beach
16.2
16
10
Taylor Geiger
Ubly
16.2
17
11
Aspen Jimkoski
Kinde North Huron
16.6
18
10
Emily Meek
Unionville-Sebewaing
18.0
19
9
Isabella West
Mayville
19.1
20
9
Kayden Parker
Harbor Beach
20.7
21
12
HarLee Leasher
Brown City
21.0
22
10
Sophia Lawrence
Memphis
22.8
23
11
Lani Dimock
Harbor Beach
24.7
24
10
Allison Steeb
Deckerville
26.7
25
11
Elizabeth Schultz
Peck
26.8
26
10
Peyten Albertson
Marlette
27.0
27
9
Lyla Holdwick
Harbor Beach
27.3
28
10
Alexa Robbins
Harbor Beach
27.9
29
10
Kayle Talaski
Kinde North Huron
30.4
30
12
Loryn Nowiski
Harbor Beach
31.5
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Brody Karg
Harbor Beach
1.1
2
12
Carson Burgess
Brown City
2.0
3
11
Owen Wruble
Harbor Beach
5.1
4
12
Logan Romain
Dryden
5.1
5
9
Weston Guza
Ubly
6.4
6
12
Gianino Perna
Marlette
7.0
7
10
Levi Fitchett
Dryden
7.3
8
11
Brennan Robinson
Kingston
7.5
9
12
Michael Walsh
Ubly
7.6
10
9
Lucas Volmering
Ubly
8.9
11
10
Maksim Kohl
Unionville-Sebewaing
13.1
12
11
Thijs Van Rijn
Kingston
13.7
13
10
Wyatt Blohm
Vassar
14.1
14
12
Evan Gobie
Deckerville
14.2
15
12
Kale Beemer
Brown City
16.9
16
10
Jaycen Roberts
Dryden
18.8
17
12
Lincoln Haag
Unionville-Sebewaing
18.9
18
10
Brayden Kirkpatrick
Marlette
19.1
19
12
Tyler Pruitt
Mayville
20.0
20
9
Steven Budreau
Mayville
21.7
21
10
Lukas Brown
Unionville-Sebewaing
23.8
22
11
Beckett Hagen
Ubly
24.0
23
11
Wesley Kosinski
Kinde North Huron
24.2
24
12
Brenden Peter
Dryden
26.3
25
12
Jacob Campbell
New Life Christian Academy
27.2
26
10
Zachary Crumby
Unionville-Sebewaing
27.4
27
11
Tyler Roberts
Dryden
29.2
28
12
Dylan Lasher
Dryden
29.8
29
11
Donovan Glasgow
Capac
30.4
30
10
Brendan Aeder
Unionville-Sebewaing
30.6
REGION 36
Any Big Battles?
Unlike a few of the other matchups, Southfield Christian and Austin Catholic have met with a full varsity squad. The issue is that was a lifetime ago, way back in September. At that OCS Small School Invite, Austin Catholic put together a 16 pt. margin on Southfield Christian. In the six weeks that have passed SC’s Eagles have added impactful girls and had a few drop more than a minute from their Eastwood Beach effort. Speaking of Eastwood, that’s where the AC frontrunner Cassidy Bowers was recently able to place All-County and grab a lifetime best.
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 