2025 Regional Projections: Division 1

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

At the regional level, the projections were pretty darn accurate. I gave qualifying odds for the top-3 spots and ended up thinking I’d be accurate on 198 of the teams, the final total ended up being 197. The State level was a different story, where a few wholly unexpected teams hit the podium.

With that in mind, these simulations are a bit different than last year. Last year’s sample filtered out a runner’s lesser performances, which was fine in the regional setting, but didn’t account for the otherworldly MIS efforts that the Saline/Saugatuck boys had. In an attempt to capture more of the variant State Final performances, the samples for 2025 contain all of the invites and championship meets, hopefully giving more of an idea of how one performs when going to the well.

I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race over the past 4 weeks. This will attempt to account for injuries.

Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.

Your D1 Regional Projections…

GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
BOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
GIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONS
BOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

I have to warn you. All of the writeups below concern the boys’ races. It’s not as if I don’t care about the girls, I think my volume of work over the years more than speaks for itself. But in many cases, the places appear to be set in stone. In others, the guys projections are more chaotic.

What this also means is that when an unexpected win or qualifier occurs, it’ll be the story of that region or even the division. Check back on Sunday to see who defied the math.

REGION 1

Any Big Battles?

Can a Hudsonville or a Forest Hills Northern pull the upset?

All year, both Grand Haven and Rockford have been a bit of a step above. Their team averages per meet are among the highest of the four teams. At Portage, the two squads finished ahead of Hudsonville and FHN.

But the gap is closing with Hudsonville, who in the OK Red Championship, were 15 points back of Rockford and a mere 6 away from Grand Haven. All of the Eagle scorers found a PR on the Riverside Park course, a definite boost heading into regional action.

Forest Hills Northern will hope for the same breakthrough, having all of their OK White Championship scorers at 17-flat or below.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Hudsonville	49	1.3	77	95+
2	Jenison	64	2.2	18	95+
3	Rockford	69	2.6	5	95+
4	Forest Hills Northern	96	3.9		7
5	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	138	5.3
6	Grand Haven	154	5.8
7	Grandville	205	7.1
8	Greenville	234	8.4
9	Muskegon Mona Shores	235	8.5
10	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	273	10.4
11	Grand Rapids Northview	276	10.5
12	Grand Rapids Union	393	12.0
13	Wyoming	424	13.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Jenison	60	1.0	95+	95+
2	Rockford	94	2.6		88
3	Grand Haven	98	3.0		75
4	Hudsonville	114	4.2		28
5	Grandville	123	5.0
6	Forest Hills Northern	128	5.3		6
7	Grand Rapids Northview	160	7.0
8	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	205	8.4
9	Greenville	211	8.6
10	Muskegon Mona Shores	259	10.0
11	Grand Rapids Union	326	11.0
12	Wyoming	371	12.2
13	Muskegon	402	13.4
14	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	406	13.5

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville	1.5
2	9	Grace Snyder	Hudsonville	2.9
3	11	Paige McMeans	Jenison	3.1
4	11	Daisy Cox	Rockford	5.4
5	10	Morgan Sanders	Rockford	7.4
6	12	Gracelin Martin	Greenville	7.5
7	11	Chloe Purwin	Hudsonville	8.0
8	10	Madeline Aleisa	Jenison	8.9
9	9	Lexie Snyder	Hudsonville	11.2
10	11	Madeleine Hengeveld	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	11.6
11	10	Jillian Lewakowski	Rockford	12.1
12	10	Jaclyn Charbauski	Forest Hills Northern	13.9
13	12	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven	14.0
14	12	Willa Prinsen	Forest Hills Northern	14.2
15	9	Emma Storey	Jenison	16.7
16	11	Rae Defrang	Rockford	17.2
17	10	Cecelia Wojciakowski	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	17.3
18	12	Mackenzie Conner	Jenison	18.3
19	12	Jersi Bilek	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	19.9
20	10	Mackenzie VanStensel	Grand Rapids Northview	20.4
21	9	Gwyn Faber	Forest Hills Northern	21.1
22	12	Andrea Schwartz	Jenison	23.1
23	12	Macy Guikema	Jenison	23.5
24	10	Amelia Danian	Forest Hills Northern	24.8
25	9	Ariana Elzinga	Grandville	25.3
26	11	Abigail Simpson	Forest Hills Northern	25.7
27	9	Sidney Eaton	Hudsonville	27.0
28	10	Claire Watson	Rockford	27.8
29	9	Camryn Gervais	Grand Haven	29.6
30	11	Reese Defrang	Rockford	30.7

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Caden Livermore	Grandville	1.3
2	11	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	1.8
3	12	Aron Gal	Grand Haven	5.3
4	12	Kelton Hoover	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	6.5
5	11	Josiah Derksen	Rockford	7.2
6	11	Bradley Smies	Hudsonville	7.9
7	10	Chase Sherman	Jenison	9.6
8	12	Liam Bingman	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	10.1
9	12	Jacob McDaniel	Grandville	10.2
10	12	Nolan Wenglikowski	Jenison	11.0
11	10	Carter Cooke	Jenison	11.2
12	11	Ethan Burks	Jenison	12.1
13	12	Rhys Holmes	Grand Rapids Northview	16.3
14	10	Luke Bultman	Rockford	16.4
15	12	Hayden Lafferty	Rockford	16.6
16	12	Preston VanOeffelen	Greenville	16.6
17	12	Caleb TeBrake	Grand Rapids Northview	17.9
18	12	Austin Van Ek	Hudsonville	18.0
19	10	Caleb Conner	Jenison	18.3
20	12	Philip Chamberlain	Forest Hills Northern	19.2
21	9	Archer Verhage	Grand Haven	19.6
22	11	Noah Watson	Rockford	20.0
23	9	Sullivan Oberg	Jenison	21.3
24	12	Gabriel Williams	Forest Hills Northern	21.6
25	12	Myles Hendel	Jenison	25.1
26	12	John Truong	Forest Hills Northern	26.2
27	12	Simon Faber	Forest Hills Northern	26.8
28	12	Lucas Dykhouse	Hudsonville	29.4
29	12	Aidan Vermeulen	Hudsonville	30.8
30	11	Aaron Ebels	Grandville	30.9

REGION 2

Any Big Battles?

One of the more chaotic and top-heavy regions you’ll see.

Midland is probably safe. They’ve got seven guys that could score on any of the other teams. Milford is Milford, racing on occasion and being a constant bane of my existence with regard to ratings. Toeing the line on such few instances means that the LVC and Oakland County Championships weigh heavily. The Mavericks won the latter in a rout, beating the closest competition by nearly 40 points. Yet, there’s a world where they don’t advance out of this banger.

Why? Because Traverse City West, Grand Blanc, and Traverse City Central all have teams with top-fives under 17-flat. Central may be a bit underrated, as the most recent major meet for the Trojans involved an upset win over West. The Titans might need to capture a bit of their early-season magic, such as a Pete Moss race where their 4^th and 5^th runners hit PRs. And Grand Blanc KNOWS they can find their best when traveling to mid-Michigan, as the Bobcats can point to a Bluejay race where they cleared TC Central by 45 points.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Traverse City West	68	1.2	86	95+
2	Hartland	90	2.0	12	95+
3	Traverse City Central	119	3.4		60
4	H.H. Dow	128	3.8		36
5	Bay City Western	155	5.1		6
6	Grand Blanc	177	6.4
7	Mt. Pleasant	198	7.4
8	Lapeer	199	7.6
9	Highland-Milford	225	8.8
10	Holly	245	9.9
11	Midland	267	11.0
12	Davison	276	11.4
13	Alpena	366	13.5
14	Flushing	371	13.6
15	Saginaw Heritage	420	15.0
16	Swartz Creek	500	16.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Midland	67	1.2	81	95+
2	Highland-Milford	95	2.9	9	69
3	Traverse City West	106	3.5	6	43
4	Grand Blanc	106	3.5		49
5	Traverse City Central	117	4.0		39
6	Saginaw Heritage	173	6.6
7	Davison	177	6.8
8	Holly	190	7.5
9	Alpena	260	9.9
10	Hartland	261	9.9
11	Midland Dow	271	10.3
12	Mt. Pleasant	345	12.6
13	Flushing	347	12.6
14	Lapeer	382	13.8
15	Swartz Creek	436	15.1
16	Bay City Western	479	15.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Emilia Garces	H.H. Dow	1.4
2	11	Maddie Lindley	Holly	2.3
3	11	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West	2.9
4	12	Elliana Neuer	Hartland	5.1
5	9	Kaitlyn Berg	Midland	5.5
6	11	Ava Goodman	Hartland	9.4
7	12	Abby Veit	Traverse City West	10.5
8	9	Cecelia Jacobson	Traverse City Central	12.5
9	11	Lydia Powers	Lapeer	13.2
10	12	Lilah Weber	Lapeer	13.3
11	12	Payton Lamb	Traverse City West	13.7
12	10	Julia Bambach	Holly	14.2
13	9	Grace Meyers	Bay City Western	14.9
14	11	Micali Teeple	Grand Blanc	19.0
15	12	Sophia Nunnery	Hartland	19.4
16	9	Lilly Pierce	Mt. Pleasant	20.0
17	12	Sienna Cobb	Traverse City Central	21.3
18	10	Emily Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	22.5
19	12	Peyton Tucker	Traverse City West	23.3
20	10	Jessa Skonieczny	Mt. Pleasant	23.5
21	9	Autumn Luick	H.H. Dow	23.6
22	12	Nevaeh Polovina	Davison	24.2
23	12	Reese Smith	Traverse City West	24.6
24	10	Leighton Basile	Traverse City West	25.1
25	9	Brielle Bastionell	Hartland	26.3
26	10	Kelly Comfort	Traverse City Central	27.0
27	11	Taylor Vogel	Highland-Milford	28.6
28	11	Jaclyn Suderman	Bay City Western	28.6
29	12	Mallory Wilcox	Bay City Western	29.9
30	10	Leah Humphrey	Grand Blanc	31.4

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	1.7
2	10	Todd Tobin	Highland-Milford	4.5
3	9	Tommy McCormick	Grand Blanc	5.2
4	12	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central	5.9
5	10	Alexander Allen	Alpena	6.6
6	11	Broden Ladd	Holly	7.1
7	11	Cameron Cochran	Midland	9.4
8	11	Evan Fox	Traverse City Central	9.7
9	12	Hayden Murray	Traverse City West	12.0
10	11	Logan Gessford	Midland	12.0
11	12	Jack Steen	Traverse City Central	13.3
12	11	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West	14.9
13	12	Andrew Worsley	Midland	15.2
14	12	Luke James	Midland	16.3
15	12	Logan Bellinger	Midland	16.6
16	10	Elliot King	Midland	20.2
17	12	William Dean	Grand Blanc	21.2
18	12	Gannon Wheeler	Highland-Milford	21.3
19	12	John Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	22.6
20	12	Noah Linstrom	Davison	22.7
21	10	Finn-Frost Grayson	Traverse City West	22.9
22	10	Cole Heikka	Holly	23.2
23	12	Griffin Good	Flushing	26.1
24	11	Levi Mayer	Davison	28.2
25	12	Maximillian Bladzik	Grand Blanc	29.2
26	11	Connor O’Reilly	Davison	30.5
27	9	Austin Hughes	Traverse City West	30.7
28	9	Aiden Doggett	Highland-Milford	30.8
29	11	Matthew Wortley	Saginaw Heritage	30.9
30	12	Charlie Smith	Grand Blanc	31.0

REGION 3

Any Big Battles?

This is the chaos region.

From the League Week Rankings, you have:

#3 Lowell – RCA Champions
#4 Kalamazoo Central – SMAC Champions
#10 Portage Central – home course advantage
#14 Caledonia – OK Green Champions
#15 Zeeland West – OK Black Champions
#18 East Kentwood – OK Red Champions
#21 Holland West Ottawa – winner of the first OK Red Jamboree

All championship squads or those who’ve shown they can race at a championship level.

There are always scenarios where the 4^th team has 4 boys in the top-20, but when a field is so elite, that percentage is quite low. As a result, at least four deserving teams will have their season end.

At leeeeeast most of these squads were at Portage, which can give you a picture of how this chaos might play out:

Or it can point to a scenario where Portage Central, Caledonia, and East Kentwood use revenge as a factor in advancing through this utter gauntlet.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Holland West Ottawa	44	1.0	95+	95+
2	Portage Central	78	2.0		95+
3	Zeeland East	103	3.0		95+
4	Zeeland West	133	4.0
5	Byron Center	186	6.2
6	Portage Northern	190	6.2
7	Caledonia	192	6.4
8	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	217	8.3
9	Forest Hills Central	220	8.8
10	Battle Creek Lakeview	241	9.9
11	East Kentwood	250	10.6
12	Lowell	306	12.1
13	Mattawan	331	12.7
14	Kalamazoo Central	402	14.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Kalamazoo Central	74	1.5	57	95+
2	Lowell	77	1.7	42	95+
3	Zeeland West	129	4.2		34
4	Caledonia	133	4.6		39
5	East Kentwood	136	4.7		12
6	Portage Central	141	5.2		16
7	Holland West Ottawa	156	6.4
8	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	194	8.4
9	Battle Creek Lakeview	201	8.6
10	Mattawan	232	10.0
11	Forest Hills Central	273	11.0
12	Byron Center	320	12.2
13	Portage Northern	352	13.1
14	Zeeland East	375	13.6

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Ainsley Kelm	Portage Northern	1.7
2	10	Adalyn Raab	Zeeland East	3.1
3	12	Lilah Yoder	Forest Hills Central	3.2
4	12	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	3.7
5	11	Collette Wierks	Holland West Ottawa	5.0
6	10	Mary Dolbow	Holland West Ottawa	8.0
7	12	Olivia Stacy	Portage Northern	8.3
8	12	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood	8.4
9	10	Avery Scott	Portage Central	9.4
10	10	Gracie Carlisle	Portage Central	10.2
11	11	Lyla Dowling	Holland West Ottawa	10.8
12	9	Hailey Sieler	Forest Hills Central	10.8
13	10	Caralyn Elkins	Zeeland West	12.0
14	10	Julia Welc	Portage Central	16.0
15	11	Ella Wierks	Holland West Ottawa	16.6
16	12	Kailey Mann	Byron Center	18.3
17	12	Taryn DiLaura	Zeeland East	18.4
18	11	Akaela Daman	Caledonia	18.5
19	12	Rhea Mouw	Portage Central	21.5
20	12	Megan Kuzma	Zeeland East	21.6
21	10	Claire Mouw	Portage Central	22.7
22	9	Tessa Albrecht	Zeeland West	23.5
23	10	Chloe Powers	Holland West Ottawa	24.2
24	11	Kaila Keeler	Zeeland West	25.7
25	11	Delilah Marquez	Holland West Ottawa	26.3
26	9	Londyn Schmidt	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	27.6
27	9	Maddison Guy	Portage Central	28.9
28	12	Evie Kleinheksel	Zeeland West	29.7
29	12	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	30.9
30	11	Olivia Storteboom	Portage Central	30.9

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Marshall Huhn	Lowell	3.0
2	11	Justin Johnson	East Kentwood	3.8
3	12	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	4.5
4	11	Matii Tarekegn	East Kentwood	5.4
5	12	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central	5.8
6	11	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central	6.8
7	9	Avi Elabed	Lowell	8.6
8	12	Owen Fisher	Mattawan	9.1
9	12	Noah Johnston	Caledonia	10.1
10	12	Cooper Byrne	Lowell	11.7
11	12	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central	12.6
12	12	Keagan Smith	Zeeland West	14.3
13	10	Bennett Snapper	Caledonia	14.8
14	12	Marcel Stork	Mattawan	16.9
15	11	Tristan Zhang	Portage Central	18.1
16	10	Karson Lewis	Battle Creek Lakeview	18.7
17	12	Owen Gifford	Portage Central	19.1
18	9	Tanner Smith	Zeeland West	20.5
19	12	Elijah Thompson	Kalamazoo Central	20.8
20	12	Rob Dodd	Zeeland West	21.4
21	10	Marcus Essling	Portage Central	25.4
22	12	Gavin O’Meara	Forest Hills Central	25.7
23	12	Logan Westgate	Portage Central	26.1
24	12	Nicolas Morales – Sanchez	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	26.3
25	12	Jake Follett	Holland West Ottawa	26.9
26	11	Cody Bromley	Lowell	27.5
27	10	Elijah Demlow	Battle Creek Lakeview	27.7
28	9	Tyler Bromley	Lowell	29.4
29	11	Boston Wilkinson	Holland West Ottawa	31.6
30	10	Sean Thompson	Caledonia	32.6

REGION 4

Any Big Battles?

Brighton is the traditional power throughout time. Team Champs in 2019 and 2021, typically always a top-ten team in D1. Ann Arbor Skyline is a program finding its footing. The ups and downs of the new school are generally trending up and you can see where the vision will lead in the near future. Grand Ledge is having the year, a band of upperclassmen making memories and winning championships.

Centering around Brighton, there are a few common competitions. One major one was in early September on the Averill hills, the Bulldogs having the upper hand over the Comets. The difference there was most evident at the fifth spot, Brighton holding a 10 sec. advantage over their GL counterparts.

Even though I think the Averill ratings are a bit undervalued, that wasn’t the best effort of the year from either team. For Grand Ledge, that might be from Bluejay, where all five scorers were sub-16:35 and for Brighton, that could be Gabriel Richard, where it was all orange under 16:15.

Neither of the squads have had the absolute high of Skyline, who at Holly were able to defeat a crowd of ranked teams. Climbing the Holly hills were a pack of Eagles, their first four ripping 16:30’s and below. It’s been awhile since they’ve reached that level, but it exists.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Brighton	38	1.0	95+	95+
2	Ann Arbor Skyline	65	2.3		95+
3	Okemos	74	2.7		95+
4	Grand Ledge	134	4.4
5	Howell	149	5.5
6	Mason	156	6.0
7	Dexter	169	6.9
8	East Lansing	175	7.3
9	South Lyon	246	9.3
10	South Lyon East	265	9.7
11	Holt	327	11.1
12	Jackson	346	11.9
13	Lansing Waverly	432	13.0
14	Lansing Everett	443	14.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Grand Ledge	67	1.7	49	95+
2	Brighton	67	1.8	37	95+
3	Ann Arbor Skyline	80	2.6	14	95+
4	Dexter	138	4.7
5	East Lansing	150	5.8
6	Howell	150	5.9
7	Okemos	151	5.9
8	Holt	176	7.8
9	South Lyon East	256	9.1
10	South Lyon	286	10.1
11	Mason	302	10.8
12	Lansing Waverly	364	12.1
13	Lansing Everett	400	13.3
14	Jackson	405	13.6

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Rachel Smith	Okemos	1.1
2	12	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	2.9
3	10	Ella Lorenz	Brighton	3.5
4	12	October Harns	Okemos	4.1
5	12	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge	6.8
6	10	Lucia Llanes	Ann Arbor Skyline	8.1
7	12	Juliet Lewis	Brighton	10.1
8	12	Courtney Lince	Brighton	10.6
9	11	Isla Tharp	Ann Arbor Skyline	10.6
10	12	Selena White	Brighton	12.9
11	10	Ruby Petee	Mason	13.0
12	11	Becca Van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	14.7
13	10	Lila Edison	Ann Arbor Skyline	15.2
14	10	Jorga Wooledge	Mason	15.6
15	12	Fiona Whitmyer	Okemos	18.0
16	12	Elizabeth Schafer	Okemos	18.1
17	11	Kodie Snyder	Dexter	19.0
18	9	Brooke Wallace	Howell	19.2
19	12	Lydia Jagger	Grand Ledge	19.7
20	11	Ashley Lubowicki	Brighton	19.8
21	12	Adrienne Stewart	Ann Arbor Skyline	20.2
22	9	Olive DiMassa	Howell	20.3
23	12	Annie Hamilton	Brighton	23.4
24	10	Emily Barrie	East Lansing	25.3
25	9	Ava Montero	Grand Ledge	25.7
26	11	Anna Halliday	Howell	26.6
27	11	Morgan Allen	Mason	26.7
28	10	Violet Olley	Ann Arbor Skyline	27.3
29	11	Gwen Stotts-Walshe	Ann Arbor Skyline	28.2
30	12	Amelia Cribbins	Dexter	30.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jack MacGregor	Howell	1.4
2	12	Ian Morgan	Okemos	1.7
3	11	Coen Hill	Dexter	3.6
4	12	Zach Wyderko	Brighton	5.4
5	10	Rylen Richey	Grand Ledge	6.7
6	11	Blake Kulesza	Brighton	7.5
7	10	Nikhil Ball	South Lyon East	10.3
8	12	Liam Preisser	East Lansing	11.3
9	12	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge	12.0
10	11	Caelan Marsh	Grand Ledge	12.6
11	10	Rem Piper	Holt	12.9
12	12	Adrian Abbott-Wallace	Holt	13.6
13	10	Martin Gehrke	Ann Arbor Skyline	14.1
14	9	Hudson Doll	Ann Arbor Skyline	14.6
15	11	Matthew Guikema	Ann Arbor Skyline	16.1
16	11	Nolan Lounds	Grand Ledge	17.5
17	12	Alex McKennon	Grand Ledge	18.0
18	10	Oskar MacArthur	Ann Arbor Skyline	19.7
19	12	Bruno Cifaldi	Ann Arbor Skyline	19.7
20	10	Brendan Williams	Brighton	19.7
21	12	Evan Cummings	Brighton	20.1
22	10	Roarke MacArthur	Brighton	21.1
23	11	Nick Martens	Dexter	22.0
24	9	Josh Keillor-Beale	Brighton	22.7
25	12	Malcolm Cesario	Okemos	24.5
26	11	Garrett Comer	Ann Arbor Skyline	25.0
27	10	Alex Weller	Howell	26.4
28	10	Kilian Boulware-Lopez	East Lansing	26.6
29	9	Grant Kulesza	Brighton	29.3
30	11	David DeLand	Howell	30.1

REGION 5

Any Big Battles?

Woodhaven vs. history. If it comes to fruition, it would be the first ever state qualifier for the Warrior Boys. Individual runner-ups, many News-Herald champs, plenty of All-Staters, and those who went onto run in college. But no team. There’ve been a few occasions throughout the year where the purple crew has solidified their standing. Otsego is the most prominent, when the Warriors placed 3^rd in the D1 field, six boys crossing the line in a sub-17.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	17	1.0	95+	95+
2	Saline	64	2.3		95+
3	Brownstown Woodhaven	70	2.7		95+
4	Gibraltar Carlson	131	4.1
5	Temperance Bedford	153	5.0
6	Wyandotte Roosevelt	190	6.1
7	Dearborn Fordson	213	6.9
8	Dearborn	266	8.3
9	Monroe	293	9.8
10	Allen Park	293	9.8
11	Belleville	307	10.9
12	Ypsilanti Lincoln	318	11.8
13	Ypsilanti Community	336	13.0
14	Southgate Anderson	344	13.3
15	Detroit Martin Luther King	469	15.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	32	1.0	95+	95+
2	Brownstown Woodhaven	63	2.4		95+
3	Saline	68	2.6		95+
4	Temperance Bedford	146	4.1
5	Wyandotte Roosevelt	172	5.1
6	Monroe	200	6.6
7	Dearborn Fordson	214	7.7
8	Allen Park	218	7.7
9	Dearborn	232	8.9
10	Gibraltar Carlson	235	9.1
11	Ypsilanti Community	299	11.0
12	Southgate Anderson	342	12.2
13	Dearborn Edsel Ford	374	13.4
14	Belleville	378	13.4
15	Ypsilanti Lincoln	447	15.2
16	Lincoln Park	466	15.8
17	Detroit Cass Tech	513	17.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Natasza Dudek	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	10	Sienna Klemmer	Ann Arbor Pioneer	2.2
3	9	Keira Von Blon	Ann Arbor Pioneer	3.4
4	12	Hana Boggess	Ann Arbor Pioneer	3.9
5	10	Savannah Staton	Saline	4.9
6	11	Lizzie Wernimont	Ann Arbor Pioneer	7.7
7	12	Lilli Schlack	Saline	8.2
8	11	Nina Moore	Ann Arbor Pioneer	9.0
9	9	Audrey Grosteffon	Temperance Bedford	10.2
10	10	Adelynn Turck	Saline	11.1
11	10	Charley McKay	Brownstown Woodhaven	11.2
12	9	Laura Forsyth	Ann Arbor Pioneer	11.4
13	11	Hope Noal	Brownstown Woodhaven	12.2
14	10	Annabelle Chan	Brownstown Woodhaven	13.4
15	12	Eleanor Grant	Wyandotte Roosevelt	13.5
16	10	Alexis Kmiecik	Brownstown Woodhaven	17.3
17	10	Jaelynn Greene	Brownstown Woodhaven	18.2
18	10	Giada Fioritto	Gibraltar Carlson	19.0
19	9	Caroline Cotner	Saline	19.4
20	9	Madison Slade	Gibraltar Carlson	20.4
21	12	Elliana Perugi	Brownstown Woodhaven	21.6
22	9	Lauren Tomaszewski	Saline	22.1
23	11	Sophie Roth	Saline	23.5
24	11	Sophia Johnson	Temperance Bedford	24.2
25	9	Serenity Clancy	Brownstown Woodhaven	25.0
26	12	Mahalia Staton	Saline	26.7
27	9	Ada Cain	Gibraltar Carlson	29.2
28	11	Maya Elachkar	Dearborn Fordson	29.6
29	10	Livia Boucher	Gibraltar Carlson	30.5
30	9	Emma Puscas	Wyandotte Roosevelt	30.9

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.3
2	12	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.9
3	10	Mourad Algahmi	Dearborn Fordson	3.7
4	11	Jacob Szalay	Saline	5.3
5	12	Thomas DeJesus	Ann Arbor Pioneer	6.4
6	12	Pierce Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	7.2
7	12	Brennan Larusso	Saline	9.3
8	12	Theo Sacks Thomas	Ann Arbor Pioneer	9.3
9	12	Alex Vazquez	Brownstown Woodhaven	11.8
10	11	Noah Amori	Wyandotte Roosevelt	11.9
11	JR	Noah Amori	Brownstown Woodhaven	12.8
12	11	Cameron Varner	Temperance Bedford	13.0
13	11	Vincent Jones	Brownstown Woodhaven	13.5
14	11	Colin Courage	Ann Arbor Pioneer	13.7
15	12	Dane Hieronimus	Temperance Bedford	14.5
16	11	Jacob Cole	Saline	16.5
17	11	Rami Bazzi	Dearborn	18.0
18	11	Walker Ledbetter	Ann Arbor Pioneer	18.0
19	11	Calen Alexander	Brownstown Woodhaven	19.2
20	10	Asher Sikma	Ann Arbor Pioneer	19.3
21	10	Wes Rogan	Saline	20.3
22	11	Ryan Rummel	Saline	24.7
23	9	Gavin Bast	Saline	24.8
24	10	Zachary Greene	Wyandotte Roosevelt	25.5
25	11	Carter Mitton	Saline	27.0
26	12	Owen Putz	Brownstown Woodhaven	27.6
27	12	Abdu Eljahmi	Dearborn Edsel Ford	28.0
28	11	Maddi Duke	Temperance Bedford	28.4
29	9	Jaden Hill	Allen Park	28.6
30	11	Mohamed Aljahmi	Dearborn Fordson	29.0

REGION 6

Any Big Battles?

Don’t worry, all the schools are included. Aiden Pengelly, quietly on the comeback trail from track, will look to claim another individual championship for Canton. I wouldn’t sleep on Austin Mercado, the Salem junior who is progressing quite quickly.

It’s likely gonna be between Plymouth and Salem for the team title. Plymouth is on its traditional late season rise, hoping to spoil the Rocks, who’ve been at the forefront of Wayne County all season.

Back here in early October, Salem placed six boys under the 17 min. barrier, the white singlets packed up and displacing many fools. A 35+ point win over Churchill and Plymouth. But in a more competitive KLAA field, Plymouth was able to close that gap. 12 points separated the two teams, the lessened difference impacted greatly by Adrian Clarke and Dylan Kosik, running the rare PR on the Bennett Park course.

Whomever wins, it’ll be earned.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Livonia Churchill	43	1.1	92	95+
2	Ann Arbor Huron	62	2.2	7	95+
3	Salem	71	2.8		95+
4	Canton	109	4.5
5	Plymouth	110	4.6
6	Livonia Franklin	138	6.2
7	Livonia Stevenson	147	6.7
8	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	221	8.0
9	Wayne Memorial	304	9.5
10	Westland John Glenn	304	9.5

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Salem	42	1.2	84	95+
2	Plymouth	58	2.0	16	95+
3	Livonia Churchill	74	2.8		95+
4	Canton	115	4.2
5	Ann Arbor Huron	132	4.9
6	Detroit U-D Jesuit	164	6.1
7	Livonia Stevenson	194	7.1
8	Westland John Glenn	215	7.8
9	Livonia Franklin	275	9.1
10	Wayne Memorial	308	10.3
11	Detroit Renaissance	322	10.9
12	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	346	12.3
13	Ferndale	348	12.5
14	Detroit Mumford	447	14.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Leena Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	1.0
2	9	Maribelle Kofahl	Ann Arbor Huron	2.1
3	12	Mackenzie Dicken	Plymouth	3.5
4	12	Rianna Radulescu	Livonia Churchill	4.8
5	12	Becca Jud	Salem	5.7
6	12	Rachael Halkey	Livonia Churchill	6.2
7	9	Ella Hanner	Salem	8.2
8	11	Julie Schuessler	Livonia Churchill	9.4
9	12	Natalie Workman	Livonia Churchill	10.0
10	11	Samantha Bartell	Salem	10.2
11	10	Maddie Vargo	Livonia Churchill	12.9
12	11	Addie Jones	Salem	13.0
13	10	Sadie Bohnsack	Ann Arbor Huron	13.5
14	So	Clare Davidson	Canton	13.8
15	12	Sarah Wazne	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	17.4
16	11	Kerrington Fields-McCurdy	Livonia Stevenson	18.3
17	10	Lucy Morrow	Livonia Franklin	18.4
18	12	Kinsey Nordbeck	Livonia Franklin	19.2
19	12	Mia Fernandez	Canton	20.1
20	11	Liv Brody	Canton	20.3
21	10	Mira Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	20.7
22	11	Isabella Rushlow	Plymouth	21.5
23	9	Khaya Pierson	Livonia Stevenson	23.4
24	9	McKenzie Stearns	Canton	25.5
25	9	Olivia Kelly	Livonia Stevenson	25.7
26	11	Emma Slater	Livonia Franklin	26.9
27	11	Chelsea Lai	Plymouth	27.3
28	11	Jordan Pope	Livonia Franklin	30.3
29	12	Caroline LaPointe	Plymouth	30.6
30	11	Harper Pinto	Ann Arbor Huron	30.7

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	1.3
2	11	Austin Mercado	Salem	2.7
3	12	Lucas LaPointe	Plymouth	2.7
4	12	Hudson Wojtkowicz	Livonia Churchill	5.2
5	11	Jack Hanner	Salem	6.4
6	11	Samuel Batt	Salem	7.0
7	10	Lucas Brumo	Livonia Stevenson	7.1
8	11	Tyler Bjorklund	Livonia Churchill	10.2
9	12	Adrian Clarke	Plymouth	11.0
10	12	Daniel Niehaus	Plymouth	12.3
11	12	Jaden Ding	Salem	14.5
12	11	Justin Mkrtumian	Detroit U-D Jesuit	16.2
13	11	Owen Dalebout	Salem	16.2
14	11	Kamden O’Donnell	Canton	16.4
15	10	Conrad Marra	Ann Arbor Huron	16.8
16	11	Dylan Kosik	Plymouth	18.0
17	12	Tony D’Orazio	Livonia Churchill	18.7
18	10	Landen Martell	Plymouth	20.0
19	12	Tommy Buckalew	Westland John Glenn	20.5
20	12	Parker Szymczak	Salem	20.6
21	12	Joey Brake	Livonia Churchill	21.8
22	11	Adam Burns	Salem	21.9
23	9	Jack Caveney	Plymouth	22.1
24	12	TJ Conley	Ann Arbor Huron	22.6
25	9	Troy Verhelle	Livonia Churchill	22.8
26	9	Matthew Keefer	Livonia Churchill	24.3
27	10	Aarav Kalantry	Ann Arbor Huron	24.7
28	11	William Balasia	Detroit U-D Jesuit	27.9
29	11	Leonardo Reyes	Plymouth	28.0
30	11	Elliot Condevaux	Livonia Churchill	29.7

REGION 7

Any Big Battles?

Um, really nothing? Of course I say that and a team that always defies the ranks might advance. That’s usually White Lake Lakeland. The Eagles will need their full lineup in action. One of the occasions that occurred was in a tri against Walled Lake Northern and Milford. Given the results there, one can extrapolate a world where Lakeland challenges for a top-three spot.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Northville	41	1.0	95+	95+
2	Novi	80	2.0		95+
3	White Lake Lakeland	111	3.0		95+
4	Royal Oak	151	4.6
5	Bloomfield Hills	156	5.1
6	Walled Lake Northern	175	6.2
7	Farmington	185	7.1
8	Berkley	198	8.0
9	Birmingham Seaholm	203	8.3
10	Beverly Hills Groves	233	9.7
11	Walled Lake Central	279	10.9
12	North Farmington	353	12.2
13	West Bloomfield	391	13.4
14	Walled Lake Western	397	13.4

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Northville	25	1.0	95+	95+
2	Detroit Catholic Central	99	2.3		95+
3	Novi	109	2.8		95+
4	Walled Lake Northern	142	4.5
5	White Lake Lakeland	145	4.7
6	Royal Oak	167	5.7
7	Beverly Hills Groves	232	7.8
8	West Bloomfield	242	8.6
9	Berkley	259	9.6
10	North Farmington	260	9.8
11	Farmington	277	11.0
12	Bloomfield Hills	277	10.9
13	Walled Lake Western	308	13.0
14	Brother Rice	341	13.5
15	Birmingham Seaholm	388	14.8
16	Walled Lake Central	510	16.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Alexandra Scappaticci	Northville	1.2
2	11	Katelynn Egli	Novi	3.5
3	11	Lucia Lachapelle	Northville	4.0
4	9	Giada Mills	Beverly Hills Groves	7.5
5	11	Anna Macdonald	Royal Oak	9.5
6	11	Maya Pletzer	White Lake Lakeland	9.6
7	10	Paige Rohda	Berkley	9.8
8	10	Alexandra Green	Birmingham Seaholm	10.0
9	12	Kierra Magner	Farmington	11.2
10	11	Allie Gallagher	Walled Lake Northern	12.0
11	12	Annabelle Beloiu	Northville	12.0
12	10	Claire Galas	Novi	13.5
13	11	Katelyn Parrish	Farmington	14.0
14	9	Brynn Somers	Northville	14.4
15	12	Mya Tass	Novi	17.5
16	11	Colette Lozo	Northville	18.0
17	10	Maya Zakrzewski	Walled Lake Northern	18.1
18	9	Claire Lawrence	Bloomfield Hills	19.9
19	11	Morgan Scally	White Lake Lakeland	20.7
20	10	Tatum Mooradian	Northville	21.0
21	12	Addison Herr	Bloomfield Hills	22.5
22	9	Ella Corby	Northville	23.8
23	9	Ella German	Novi	23.8
24	11	Gabby Marino	White Lake Lakeland	26.1
25	9	Jessica Philip	Novi	27.0
26	11	Olivia Dixon	Birmingham Seaholm	27.9
27	12	Sarah Stein	North Farmington	28.4
28	11	Olivia Jenney	Bloomfield Hills	28.5
29	12	Laura Jonas	Novi	28.8
30	12	Lucy VanHaerents	Royal Oak	28.9

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Brandon Cloud	Northville	1.6
2	12	Benjamin Hartigan	Northville	2.1
3	12	Ethan Hertza	Northville	4.9
4	11	Trevor Baptist	Novi	5.1
5	10	Brady Glon	Detroit Catholic Central	6.1
6	12	Ryan Stojov	Northville	10.5
7	11	Devin Lau	Farmington	11.4
8	12	Colton Blackburn	Northville	11.5
9	12	Gavin Tisch	Detroit Catholic Central	11.7
10	12	Nikola Dahlgren	Walled Lake Northern	11.8
11	12	Finn Gammerath	Walled Lake Northern	11.8
12	10	Emmanuel Coates	Northville	12.7
13	9	Lucas Naspinsky	White Lake Lakeland	12.8
14	12	Alex Hamilton	North Farmington	13.0
15	12	Brenden Humitz	White Lake Lakeland	15.2
16	11	Musa Kay	West Bloomfield	15.5
17	11	Beckett Sipes	Royal Oak	17.6
18	9	Luke Kramer	Detroit Catholic Central	18.6
19	11	Keats Rosenbrock	Royal Oak	19.8
20	11	Jack Lewis	Northville	20.3
21	10	Aarush Vijay	Novi	21.7
22	10	John McCann	Novi	23.8
23	12	Liam Aiuto	Royal Oak	24.0
24	10	Owen Nelms	White Lake Lakeland	24.1
25	11	Tyler Hennessey	Berkley	27.7
26	10	Asher Lawson	Walled Lake Northern	28.3
27	10	Oliver Borek	Detroit Catholic Central	33.0
28	12	Isaac German	Novi	33.3
29	11	Coplin Serota	Brother Rice	33.7
30	10	Josh Hilliard	Berkley	33.9

REGION 8

Any Big Battles?

What do you base it on?

Is it the OAA Red Championship, where Rochester and Oxford were 2^nd and 3^rd, operating at a 10+ point gap over 4^th through 6^th.

Do you look back to the Oakland County Championship, where Troy and Rochester Adams split the spots between Oxford and Rochester.

One aspect you can seemingly count on is the Wildcat ability to pack up. At both the county and league level, Oxford was able to have, at the most, a 22 sec. difference between their 1^st and 5^th. Also, Oxford’s 5^th runner was the best of both competitions.

By the numbers, neitherTroy or Rochester ran their best at either meet. For the Falcons, one of their better efforts on the year was at Jackson, with four boys sub-16:50, finishing just ahead of Troy. The Colts may have been behind there, but excel on the tougher courses such as Holly, where they actually beat Oxford, all scorers under 17:30 through those tight turns and steep hills.

Clintonwood is fast and it’ll be burning for those seeking another week of action.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Rochester	42	1.1	86	95+
2	Rochester Adams	53	1.9	14	95+
3	Clarkston	78	3.0		95+
4	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	106	4.0
5	Troy	158	6.0
6	Lake Orion	159	6.0
7	Oxford	174	7.1
8	Utica Ford	175	7.0
9	Troy Athens	256	9.0
10	Warren Mott	337	10.8
11	Sterling Heights Stevenson	345	11.2
12	Waterford Kettering	349	11.6
13	Warren Cousino	359	12.4
14	Waterford Mott	420	14.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Clarkston	53	1.0	95+	95+
2	Troy	98	3.0		66
3	Oxford	99	3.1		61
4	Rochester	99	3.1		68
5	Rochester Adams	120	4.9		5
6	Lake Orion	138	6.0
7	Troy Athens	166	7.0
8	Utica Ford	205	8.5
9	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	210	8.7
10	Sterling Heights Stevenson	243	9.8
11	Waterford Kettering	381	11.2
12	Warren Mott	399	13.1
13	Waterford Mott	405	12.8
14	Warren Cousino	407	13.0
15	Sterling Heights	425	14.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	El McMahan	Rochester Adams	1.1
2	12	Ella Abraham	Rochester	2.5
3	9	Jessica Soldan	Rochester Adams	3.5
4	12	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	3.9
5	9	Abigail Deering	Rochester Adams	5.4
6	10	Charlotte Jones	Rochester	6.0
7	12	Audrey Hamilton	Troy	7.2
8	11	Avery DeGrendel	Clarkston	8.8
9	12	Taylor Parsons	Rochester	9.8
10	11	Adrienne Jones	Rochester	12.5
11	11	Linda Lopez	Lake Orion	13.0
12	12	Sydney Fischer	Clarkston	13.2
13	10	Sienna Chapin	Oxford	14.4
14	10	Maren Greve	Rochester	16.2
15	12	Cecilia Kreiter	Rochester Adams	16.9
16	10	Amelia Garvin	Clarkston	17.1
17	9	Annabelle Shaw	Clarkston	18.8
18	11	Tessa Kozlowski	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	20.3
19	11	Addison Brigham	Clarkston	21.2
20	10	Riah Guoin	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	22.1
21	11	Natalie Meldrum	Lake Orion	23.7
22	10	Hailey Lan	Troy	24.8
23	12	Gianna D’Angelo	Utica Ford	26.7
24	9	Clare O’Reilly	Troy Athens	27.1
25	11	Lexi Schwartz	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	27.6
26	12	Emma Miller	Utica Ford	27.9
27	11	Kendal Russette	Clarkston	28.4
28	9	Aryana Givans	Rochester	28.9
29	9	Maddie Deering	Rochester Adams	29.2
30	11	Annie Roraff	Rochester	30.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	David Dubeck	Clarkston	1.9
2	12	Max Houvener	Lake Orion	3.1
3	12	Nathaniel Linden	Troy Athens	3.8
4	12	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston	4.3
5	12	Dylan Pascoe	Rochester	5.1
6	12	Evan Owczarek	Rochester	6.0
7	12	Gavin Wilkins	Rochester Adams	9.8
8	10	Asa Konwinski	Troy	10.4
9	10	Oscar Wordell	Rochester Adams	10.4
10	9	Avery Clinton-Barnett	Oxford	13.6
11	11	Vern Clyne	Clarkston	13.7
12	10	Lucas Campbell	Rochester	13.8
13	12	Anthony Dubeck	Clarkston	16.3
14	10	Aidan Schwalbach	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	17.0
15	12	Isaac Clark	Troy	17.9
16	10	Ricardo Guajardo	Lake Orion	19.4
17	12	Cayden Canham	Oxford	19.6
18	11	Ethan Christoff	Oxford	20.1
19	10	Cooper McNaughton	Clarkston	20.1
20	12	Matthew Buchanan	Oxford	20.3
21	11	Colin Blachford	Troy Athens	20.6
22	11	Jack Witt	Troy	21.0
23	11	Henry Witt	Troy	21.6
24	11	Jesse Reed	Rochester Adams	23.9
25	9	Luis Nava	Lake Orion	24.7
26	10	Brady Bigelow	Oxford	25.9
27	12	Joey Light	Troy	27.2
28	11	Luke Nagy	Rochester Adams	27.6
29	11	Miles Foster	Clarkston	28.1
30	11	Conner McLaughlin	Rochester	30.3

REGION 9

Any Big Battles?

The numbers show a single point separating the UCS schools. I wouldn’t count out Fraser, who in 2024 was a constant thorn in the projections’ side. The Ramblers have had the occasional meet where they’ve shown the ability to qualify. Otsego is an example, all five Fraser boys at 17:15 or below.

But in this Macomb County centric region (side note: is it weird that Utica Ford is over at Region 8?), we look to the Macomb County Championship. Five points separated Utica Eisenhower and Utica. The Chieftains gained an advantage early and held on through their 4^th and 5^th guys. Eisenhower gained 6 points from their final two scorers, not enough to overcome the 11 point difference between each top-three. But it’s so dang close, as the average gap between the two at each spot was 7 seconds. It might not even be the two above schools that determine their place, another random runner could slide in or out of those gaps and send a team into frenzy when the results come in.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Romeo	21	1.0	95+	95+
2	Utica	69	2.1		95+
3	Macomb Dakota	92	3.2		77
4	Fraser	109	3.9		23
5	Utica Eisenhower	139	5.3
6	Port Huron Northern	150	6.1
7	Grosse Pointe South	158	6.4
8	Anchor Bay	220	8.5
9	L’Anse Creuse North	224	8.6
10	Chippewa Valley	266	9.9
11	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	369	11.1
12	L’Anse Creuse	390	12.0
13	Port Huron	407	13.0
14	Roseville	433	14.3
15	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	441	14.6

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Romeo	34	1.0	95+	95+
2	Macomb Dakota	75	2.0		95+
3	Utica Eisenhower	126	3.8		38
4	Utica	127	3.8		46
5	Fraser	143	5.0		12
6	Warren DeLaSalle	153	5.6
7	Anchor Bay	186	7.1
8	L’Anse Creuse North	205	7.8
9	Chippewa Valley	241	9.3
10	Grosse Pointe South	252	9.9
11	Port Huron Northern	267	10.8
12	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	327	12.1
13	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	414	13.5
14	Roseville	426	13.7
15	Warren Woods Tower	452	15.0
16	L’Anse Creuse	473	15.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	1.1
2	12	Ella Goodsell	Romeo	2.6
3	12	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	2.8
4	12	Siene Muraszewski	Utica	4.1
5	12	Emmie Clor	Romeo	6.2
6	11	Reese Rosbolt	Romeo	8.7
7	11	Alice Foley	Fraser	9.2
8	12	Samantha Langolf	Port Huron Northern	9.7
9	11	Emma Brown	Utica	10.3
10	12	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota	11.0
11	10	Gabriella Mercier	Macomb Dakota	11.0
12	11	Maggie Baginski	Utica Eisenhower	11.5
13	12	Jacalyn Yakel	Utica Eisenhower	12.0
14	10	Kylie Brown	Utica	15.8
15	9	Grace Mathers	Macomb Dakota	16.2
16	12	Brooke McFarland	Utica	19.6
17	12	Kate Molloy	Fraser	20.1
18	9	Eleanor Pilsner	Grosse Pointe South	20.8
19	11	Haley Sharp	Port Huron Northern	22.1
20	12	Olivia Cereska	Fraser	22.1
21	10	Ava Knight	L’Anse Creuse North	22.8
22	10	Codianne Palczewski	Utica	23.7
23	12	Ava Tow	Utica	23.8
24	9	Audra Krause	Anchor Bay	27.2
25	12	Jewel Zschernig	Fraser	28.0
26	10	Riley Owen	Port Huron Northern	28.0
27	11	Kaitlyn Rizzo	Macomb Dakota	29.8
28	10	Layla Gendernelle	Macomb Dakota	30.6
29	11	Morgan Costello	Grosse Pointe South	31.3
30	12	Katelyn Frazier	Fraser	31.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Xavier Solgot	L’Anse Creuse North	3.0
2	12	Owen Perry	Romeo	3.3
3	12	Harper Wesley	Utica	5.3
4	12	Luke Allen	Romeo	5.4
5	9	Rio Hrabovsky	Romeo	5.5
6	12	Joseph Kaleto	Macomb Dakota	7.6
7	12	James Brickel	Romeo	9.9
8	12	Malcolm Richardson	Warren DeLaSalle	10.0
9	12	Andrew Scheloske	Macomb Dakota	10.2
10	11	Carson Hlavin	Romeo	11.3
11	12	Anthony Frei	Utica Eisenhower	11.3
12	12	Drew Pietraszkiewicz	Utica Eisenhower	12.7
13	12	Aaron Osterman	Anchor Bay	13.6
14	12	Nathan Kafoury	Warren DeLaSalle	15.7
15	10	Logan LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	15.9
16	11	Tyler Williams	Fraser	17.5
17	10	Wesley LaFever	Macomb Dakota	18.8
18	10	Federico Moreno-Padilla	Utica Eisenhower	19.0
19	12	Lucas Gizoni	Romeo	19.8
20	12	Charlie Curtis	Utica	20.9
21	10	Jacob Solomon	Utica	22.2
22	11	Grant Davis	Port Huron Northern	22.3
23	11	Brody Empson	Romeo	22.8
24	10	Cameron Martin	Fraser	23.2
25	11	Brandon Ziehmer	Anchor Bay	24.5
26	12	Jacob Giovannini	Macomb Dakota	25.9
27	12	Oliver Davis	Macomb Dakota	25.9
28	12	Mario Carducci	Chippewa Valley	26.3
29	10	Sebastian Azar	Anchor Bay	31.6
30	11	Lucien Lamothe	Warren DeLaSalle	33.2