2025 Regional Projections: Division 2

My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

At the regional level, the projections were pretty darn accurate. I gave qualifying odds for the top-3 spots and ended up thinking I’d be accurate on 198 of the teams, the final total ended up being 197. The State level was a different story, where a few wholly unexpected teams hit the podium.

With that in mind, these simulations are a bit different than last year. Last year’s sample filtered out a runner’s lesser performances, which was fine in the regional setting, but didn’t account for the otherworldly MIS efforts that the Saline/Saugatuck boys had. In an attempt to capture more of the variant State Final performances, the samples for 2025 contain all of the invites and championship meets, hopefully giving more of an idea of how one performs when going to the well.

I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race over the past 4 weeks. This will attempt to account for injuries.

Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.

Your D2 Regional Projections…

GIRLS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
BOYS MID-SEASON PROJECTIONS
GIRLS SUMMER PROJECTIONS
BOYS SUMMER PROJECTIONS

REGION 10

Any Big Battles?

The boys’ side is a bit simpler, the girls’ a little more complex. All year, the Cedar Springs boys have been the class of the region. They’re deep, with a total of ten RedHawks busting through into the 17’s or below. At a tough day over at the BNC Championship, Petoskey showed it has the quality of runners capable of being a bit ahead of the groupings here. Whitehall and Spring Lake seem to be the ones chasing. Whitehall, led by Bobby Jazwinski and followed by Rex Pumford/Hunter Parsons, is exceptionally strong up front. Spring Lake is a bit more even across the board. We saw this play out at Portage, where the Lakers gained 100+ points on the Vikings with their 3^rd through 5^th man. With a huge caveat, of course, no Parsons for Whitehall (he’s been back).

A tad more complexity for the girls, three teams in the running for two spots. Clare takes the trek over from mid-Michigan and also Division 3. They’re the ones on a roll, snapping a decades long JPC streak held by Shepherd, six Pioneers sub-21 on the quick Shepherd course.

Despite 45 min. separating the two schools, Cedar Springs and Fremont have not faced one another. But that’s why we do these ratings – to give our best effort at these scenarios! This isn’t a perfect tool of comparison, but the two squads have the highest top-five averages at a single meet. For Fremont, it was early in the year at home in the WMC Mega, five Packers placing in the top-13. The RedHawks had similar success in a friendly environment, two girls sub-20 and all sub-22 at their home invite. Benzie will be the home for these two plus Clare, and the projections believe that Cedar Springs’ edge lies in the RedHawk top three, just enough of an advantage to be a slight favorite.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Cadillac	63	1.2	80	95+
2	Spring Lake	71	1.8	20	95+
3	Cedar Springs	114	3.7		45
4	Clare	119	4.1		33
5	Fremont	121	4.2		22
6	Fruitport	171	6.3
7	Gaylord	192	7.5
8	Ludington	193	7.5
9	Gladwin	228	9.4
10	Petoskey	229	9.6
11	Howard City Tri-County	254	10.7
12	Whitehall	346	12.2
13	Big Rapids	362	12.9
14	Muskegon Oakridge	397	13.9

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Cedar Springs	86	1.5	64	95+
2	Petoskey	97	2.0	31	95+
3	Whitehall	121	3.4		54
4	Spring Lake	123	3.5		49
5	Howard City Tri-County	152	5.2
6	Fremont	189	7.1
7	Gladwin	198	7.5
8	Clare	202	7.5
9	Ludington	227	9.2
10	Muskegon Oakridge	232	9.4
11	Cadillac	253	10.7
12	Gaylord	272	11.9
13	Big Rapids	281	12.4
14	Fruitport	329	13.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	1.0
2	9	Eliza Schwass	Ludington	2.8
3	11	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	3.3
4	12	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	4.9
5	11	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	5.5
6	12	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	5.5
7	12	Linnea Paige	Fremont	7.8
8	11	Emory Smith	Cedar Springs	8.7
9	9	Hailey Kuhn	Cadillac	10.1
10	11	Cora Parker	Spring Lake	10.9
11	10	Chloe Mazza	Cadillac	13.1
12	10	Kaleigh Clark	Spring Lake	14.4
13	11	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	14.7
14	10	Peyhton Beardsley	Fruitport	15.0
15	10	Addy Nesbitt	Cedar Springs	15.1
16	12	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey	15.9
17	9	Myah Breuker	Fremont	16.6
18	11	Abby Noorman	Cedar Springs	18.8
19	9	Alison Villa-Bilton	Clare	19.2
20	9	Charly Braidwood	Spring Lake	21.6
21	9	Matia Battjes	Spring Lake	22.7
22	11	Zoe German	Fruitport	23.5
23	12	Joelle Patten	Fremont	23.8
24	12	Meghan Guczwa	Spring Lake	26.2
25	11	Elizabeth Letherer	Clare	27.4
26	10	Vivian O’Callaghan	Gladwin	28.0
27	11	Lauren Leis	Clare	30.8
28	9	Natalie Christoffersen	Fremont	31.0
29	9	Evelayna Szajner	Gaylord	31.1
30	12	Anna Pake	Howard City Tri-County	31.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Robert Jazwinski III	Whitehall	1.0
2	12	Ben Verellen	Gladwin	4.2
3	11	Owen Adams	Spring Lake	4.6
4	12	Zahar Rush	Petoskey	5.8
5	12	Aiden Weller	Cedar Springs	5.8
6	11	Gabe Grierson	Ludington	6.4
7	11	Reeve Oberman	Petoskey	9.5
8	10	Rex Pumford	Whitehall	9.9
9	12	Hunter Parsons	Whitehall	12.7
10	11	Lukas Albright	Big Rapids	14.4
11	11	Bryce Falbe	Muskegon Oakridge	14.7
12	12	Alex Culver	Howard City Tri-County	15.1
13	10	Christian Pavlige	Fruitport	15.1
14	11	Samuel Organ	Cedar Springs	15.7
15	11	Peyton Farrell	Cedar Springs	18.2
16	9	Colton Mulder	Cadillac	20.2
17	12	Lukus Mendoza	Spring Lake	20.8
18	11	Myles Robinson	Gladwin	22.2
19	11	Jack Frentz	Petoskey	22.7
20	12	Rocket Wilson	Howard City Tri-County	23.3
21	10	Tadhg Shoffner	Cedar Springs	23.4
22	11	Connor Schmidt	Clare	25.5
23	12	Caleb Lamblin	Gaylord	25.5
24	11	Mossen Green	Fremont	25.8
25	9	Dane Trask	Spring Lake	26.6
26	10	Tate Smith	Fremont	26.9
27	12	Simon Licata	Petoskey	28.5
28	10	Kelan Monreal	Howard City Tri-County	30.1
29	12	Clayton Peacock	Clare	30.4
30	10	Gabe Piach	Gladwin	33.0

REGION 11

Any Big Battles?

The third spot for both genders. Tiny gaps projected between the Sparta boys and their foes from Grand Rapids Catholic Central, an equal difference thought to be found in the sparring match of the Hudsonville Unity Christian and Holland girls.

For Holland, their final five races have all featured Unity Christian as a counterpart. The first four all ended in the same result – a loss, typically by a single spot in the standings. Smaller fields, bigger fields, conference, invitationals, it didn’t make a difference as the Crusaders were able to come in clutch down the stretch of scorers, their 4^th/5^th girls commonly coming in a minute before the Dutch. At the OK Black Championship, the results flipped, Holland coming in ahead of HUC. Holland was able to match the Crusaders at the four spot, lessening the advantage gained in earlier meets.

Whereas the two above are well familiar with one another, Sparta and Grand Rapids Catholic Central haven’t seen one another. They share similar features and different dynamics. Mitchell Dunlap has been a consistent low stick for the Cougars. Owen Metzger and Carson Wood bring an experienced two-headed force up front for the Spartans. Each squad has a bevy of kids in the mid-18 range. The projections show that the racing bubble could be concentrated in that mid-18 area, whichever depth combination has the better day has a great chance of advancing.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Holland Christian	38	1.0	95+	95+
2	Coopersville	66	2.0		95+
3	Hudsonville Unity Christian	88	3.3		67
4	Holland	95	3.6		33
5	Allendale	147	5.0
6	Sparta	213	6.9
7	Hamilton	219	7.2
8	Hopkins	223	7.3
9	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	251	9.0
10	Grand Rapids West Catholic	266	9.7
11	South Haven	313	11.2
12	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	330	12.2
13	Allegan	334	12.5
14	Wyoming Lee	425	14.4
15	Comstock Park	432	14.7

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Holland Christian	52	1.0	95+	95+
2	Allendale	66	2.0		95+
3	Sparta	116	3.5		65
4	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	122	4.0		26
5	Coopersville	145	5.5
6	Holland	147	5.8		7
7	Hudsonville Unity Christian	162	6.7
8	Hopkins	185	7.6
9	Allegan	246	9.0
10	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	300	10.4
11	South Haven	314	11.0
12	Grand Rapids West Catholic	331	11.7
13	Hamilton	361	12.8
14	Wyoming Lee	411	14.2
15	Comstock Park	422	14.8

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian	1.3
2	11	Johanna Mulder	Holland	3.1
3	10	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville	3.4
4	11	Mia May	Sparta	3.7
5	12	Marie Gates	Hudsonville Unity Christian	4.6
6	11	Olivia Weiss	Holland	6.1
7	11	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian	7.1
8	10	Addison Bixler	Coopersville	9.1
9	11	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	10.2
10	12	Layla Geurink	Holland Christian	10.3
11	10	Annika Stob	Holland Christian	10.5
12	11	Olivia Hollebeek	Holland Christian	12.1
13	9	Breslyn Klein	Coopersville	12.4
14	11	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian	12.9
15	11	Sawyer Reagan	Allendale	15.0
16	12	Jayden VandenAkker	Allegan	19.5
17	12	Lauryn Byker	Hudsonville Unity Christian	20.3
18	12	Katelynn Boyd	Hudsonville Unity Christian	21.2
19	10	Quinn McWilliams	Coopersville	21.4
20	11	Carly Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	22.8
21	12	Sadie Schout	Hudsonville Unity Christian	22.8
22	12	Olivia Droski	Coopersville	23.2
23	9	Megyn Allers	Coopersville	24.5
24	11	Noelle Wielhouwer	Hudsonville Unity Christian	25.4
25	9	Tessa Nienhuis	Holland	25.5
26	9	Addisyn Wood	Sparta	26.8
27	10	Ellery Rietema	Hamilton	27.5
28	10	Lexi Gibson	Holland	28.4
29	11	Riley DenHartigh	Hudsonville Unity Christian	33.3
30	9	Mia Hill	Allendale	33.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Mason Hill	Allendale	1.6
2	11	Mitchell Dunlap	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	2.3
3	12	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	2.7
4	12	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	3.8
5	10	Aiden Lambers	Holland	7.4
6	9	Grant Lampen	Holland Christian	7.7
7	12	Landon Gerritsma	Holland Christian	7.9
8	12	Owen Metzger	Sparta	8.5
9	12	Carson Wood	Sparta	10.1
10	11	Cole Coffman	Holland Christian	12.4
11	10	Macen White	Holland Christian	12.4
12	10	Kash Moored	Hopkins	12.5
13	10	Caelen Gray	Holland	12.7
14	12	Jack Estelle	Hopkins	14.0
15	9	Zander Stewart	Holland Christian	14.0
16	11	Alex Ten Haken	Hudsonville Unity Christian	14.2
17	9	Zach Diller	Holland Christian	15.8
18	12	Will Johnson	Holland Christian	17.0
19	11	Kellen Chalupa	Allegan	20.2
20	12	Grant Hillary	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	20.6
21	10	Cole Raymond	Coopersville	21.8
22	10	Anthony Rushmore	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	22.9
23	9	Reuben Riemersma	Hudsonville Unity Christian	23.2
24	11	Brandon Peterson	Coopersville	27.2
25	10	Braylon Bigorowski	Coopersville	27.6
26	11	Owen VanDyke	Allendale	28.1
27	11	Rian Powers	Holland	28.6
28	10	Hagan Biehl	Sparta	29.4
29	11	Joe Janesak	Sparta	29.9
30	12	Evan Keller	Coopersville	30.4

REGION 12

Any Big Battles?

Which one of the top-ranked girls’ teams will unfortunately have to stay home? Just like the Traverse City area D4 mecca, the Grand Rapids area is ripe with excellent D2 squads. They’re greatly concentrated here, the League Week Rankings listing:

#3 Grand Rapids Christian
#4 Grand Rapids South Christian
#9 East Grand Rapids
#12 Forest Hills Eastern

As of now, it is appearing that FHE is on the outside looking in. However, not as if there’s zero hope. At Portage, if one filters for Region 12 teams, the Hawks were only three points behind East Grand Rapids, a great advantage coming at the 5^th spot. That wasn’t even the Hawks’ best performance of the year. A week prior at Allendale, the entire FHE scoring lineup was sub-21. On the other hand, East Grand Rapids can look to the past for confidence, as the Pioneers ran up a good margin on the Hawks at the OK White Championship.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Grand Rapids Christian	38	1.0	95+	95+
2	Grand Rapids South Christian	54	2.0		95+
3	East Grand Rapids	87	3.2		81
4	Forest Hills Eastern	102	3.8		19
5	GR West Michigan Aviation	176	5.8
6	Ionia	185	6.5
7	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	187	6.5
8	Wayland Union	197	7.3
9	Hastings	256	9.3
10	Battle Creek Pennfield	269	9.9
11	Portland	292	10.9
12	Grand River Preparatory	363	12.0
13	Lake Odessa Lakewood	395	13.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	East Grand Rapids	32	1.0	95+	95+
2	Grand Rapids Christian	54	2.0		95+
3	Forest Hills Eastern	86	3.0		95+
4	Grand Rapids South Christian	115	4.0
5	GR West Michigan Aviation	155	5.1
6	Portland	183	6.0
7	Grand River Preparatory	214	7.3
8	Wayland Union	232	8.6
9	Ionia	237	8.9
10	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	240	9.2
11	Lake Odessa Lakewood	299	11.0
12	Hastings	335	12.0
13	Battle Creek Pennfield	368	12.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Caroline Randall	Hastings	2.1
2	12	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian	3.6
3	12	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	4.4
4	10	Tiffany DeMaagd	Grand Rapids South Christian	4.4
5	10	Anneliese Passchier	East Grand Rapids	5.0
6	12	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	6.7
7	11	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	7.5
8	11	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	8.3
9	9	Lily VanEyk	Grand Rapids South Christian	10.8
10	12	Annika TerBeek	Grand Rapids Christian	11.1
11	12	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	11.4
12	11	Ahna Woltjer	GR West Michigan Aviation	12.5
13	10	Eva Lindstrom	Grand Rapids Christian	13.0
14	11	Lucy Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	14.2
15	10	Abree VanDenBrink	Wayland Union	16.1
16	10	Maggie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	17.0
17	10	Vivienne Conflitti	Forest Hills Eastern	17.2
18	9	Noelle Hulst	Grand Rapids South Christian	17.5
19	10	Lily Phillips	Forest Hills Eastern	18.6
20	9	Isabelle Oostema	Grand Rapids South Christian	20.7
21	12	Lydia Huisman	Grand Rapids South Christian	21.3
22	9	Madison Bumhoffer	Wayland Union	23.4
23	9	Lucy Straveler	East Grand Rapids	23.9
24	11	Clare Assaf	East Grand Rapids	24.8
25	9	Annalise Wiltjer	Grand Rapids South Christian	25.6
26	11	Iris Zylstra	East Grand Rapids	26.1
27	11	Ainsley Sullivan	Forest Hills Eastern	26.1
28	9	Jovie Overkamp	Ionia	27.7
29	9	Faith Antonini	Forest Hills Eastern	28.5
30	10	Ava Benedict	Ionia	30.2

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	1.3
2	10	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids	2.5
3	12	Shephard Bower	Forest Hills Eastern	4.5
4	12	Sean Ryan	Grand Rapids Christian	5.8
5	12	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids	6.5
6	10	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian	7.1
7	11	Steven Zawacki	Forest Hills Eastern	7.3
8	12	Asher Jager	GR West Michigan Aviation	8.1
9	12	Thad VanderLaan	Grand Rapids South Christian	11.6
10	11	Lucas Aardema	East Grand Rapids	12.0
11	12	Sam Hillary	East Grand Rapids	12.8
12	10	James Scholten-Holcom	Grand Rapids Christian	13.9
13	12	Tyler VanKuiken	East Grand Rapids	14.4
14	12	Micah Small	Grand Rapids Christian	15.4
15	10	James Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	16.9
16	12	Andrew Feldpausch	Portland	17.7
17	11	Thomas Fisher	East Grand Rapids	17.8
18	10	Grayson Michels	Forest Hills Eastern	17.9
19	11	Ben Verlin	Grand Rapids South Christian	18.3
20	11	Mason Fein	Wayland Union	20.6
21	10	Jacob Kornoely	GR West Michigan Aviation	20.7
22	11	Elias DeJong	Grand Rapids Christian	20.9
23	9	Seth Sytsma	Grand Rapids Christian	23.3
24	12	Elijah Lipscomb	Grand River Preparatory	24.5
25	9	Hudson Kemper	Grand Rapids South Christian	24.6
26	11	Josiah Rozema	Grand Rapids South Christian	25.5
27	12	Ethan Manning	Wayland Union	25.6
28	12	Cooper Donovan	Forest Hills Eastern	28.4
29	12	Owen Moore	Portland	28.8
30	12	Jaxxon Thelen	Ionia	28.9

REGION 13

Any Big Battles?

The many boys’ teams that can advance. Otsego is the biggest lock of them all, winning the Wolverine Conference over many of these squads. Three Rivers had a bit of early success, both at Big Hill and Under the Lights, rolling to some of the higher top-five averages of the chase pack. At the Wolverine Conference Final, the Wildcats still held a position ahead of Edwardsburg, with the Eddies right there through four runners. Over at the SMAC Championship, Richland Gull Lake packed up their 3^rd thru 5^th boys, 17:27 to 17:36 to finish 5^th in the D1-centric field.

But one race may be the greatest preview – Portage. The conditions couldn’t be more drastic. Just look outside your window this week and compare against the overbearing heat of that afternoon. A majority of Region 13’s teams were present and the results defied the projections, St. Joseph and Vicksburg pulling ahead when filtering for this region’s competition. Perhaps all the math is wrong.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Otsego	25	1.0	95+	95+
2	St. Joseph	106	2.2		95+
3	Richland Gull Lake	132	3.4		68
4	Plainwell	153	4.7		13
5	Sturgis	153	4.9		17
6	Stevensville Lakeshore	156	4.9		5
7	Battle Creek Harper Creek	212	7.5
8	Edwardsburg	223	8.1
9	Marshall	247	9.4
10	Niles	264	10.3
11	Vicksburg	279	11.1
12	Paw Paw	290	11.9
13	Three Rivers	291	11.8
14	Berrien Springs	352	14.3
15	Coldwater	356	14.5

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Otsego	93	1.2	81	95+
2	Richland Gull Lake	120	2.9	10	68
3	Three Rivers	125	3.3	9	60
4	Edwardsburg	130	3.6		48
5	Plainwell	143	4.6		19
6	Vicksburg	164	6.4
7	St. Joseph	172	7.3
8	Paw Paw	172	7.3
9	Battle Creek Harper Creek	202	8.9
10	Sturgis	220	9.8
11	Marshall	248	10.8
12	Coldwater	289	12.1
13	Berrien Springs	326	13.2
14	Niles	341	13.6
15	Dowagiac Union	484	15.5
16	Stevensville Lakeshore	485	15.5

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	1.0
2	11	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	2.3
3	9	Alayna Verhage	Otsego	4.2
4	10	Mai Nguyen	Plainwell	5.2
5	9	Addelyn Sabatke	Otsego	5.6
6	9	Adelyn Verhage	Otsego	6.8
7	11	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	8.7
8	9	Vittoria Perucchetti	St. Joseph	9.6
9	12	Beatrice Perucchetti	St. Joseph	9.8
10	10	Audrey Kline	St. Joseph	9.9
11	12	Georgia Babcock	Edwardsburg	11.0
12	12	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	12.7
13	9	Lulu Park	Sturgis	14.1
14	10	Grace Leman	Edwardsburg	14.5
15	12	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis	15.1
16	9	Taylee Fox	Otsego	16.4
17	9	Lydia Dwyer	Stevensville Lakeshore	16.7
18	9	Fiona Ryan	Plainwell	18.9
19	9	Kalynn Young	Richland Gull Lake	21.2
20	10	Alaina Dillon	Marshall	21.9
21	12	Julia Faber	Battle Creek Harper Creek	22.9
22	11	Lillie Kerr	Three Rivers	23.9
23	10	Gwen Eby	Coldwater	26.1
24	10	Molly Bruggink	Plainwell	27.1
25	9	Lena Coulston	Niles	27.9
26	12	Kate Ort	Stevensville Lakeshore	28.0
27	10	Avery Huff	Paw Paw	28.1
28	11	Lily Cummings	St. Joseph	30.9
29	11	Abbie Luckman	Stevensville Lakeshore	32.4
30	11	Hayden Lemieux	Paw Paw	33.0

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	2.8
2	11	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	3.5
3	12	Charlie Brauer	Three Rivers	6.2
4	12	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	7.0
5	11	Seth Randall	St. Joseph	7.0
6	11	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	7.1
7	12	George Scupham	Edwardsburg	8.0
8	11	Christian Ayres	Battle Creek Harper Creek	9.5
9	9	Jackson Pant	Richland Gull Lake	9.5
10	11	Connor Beebe	Berrien Springs	12.8
11	11	Gunnar Djerf	Otsego	13.0
12	12	Benjamin Morales	Sturgis	15.5
13	12	Hiro Nguyen	Plainwell	15.6
14	10	Carson Wiersbe	St. Joseph	16.8
15	12	Trent Hansen	Plainwell	17.3
16	11	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg	17.5
17	10	Ethan Ferguson	Edwardsburg	17.7
18	10	Landon Lindsay	Paw Paw	17.9
19	12	Jonah Zietlow	Three Rivers	18.0
20	12	Donovan Ryan	Plainwell	19.1
21	12	Cooper Gardner	Battle Creek Harper Creek	21.1
22	12	Reece Howes	Three Rivers	22.0
23	12	Gavin Markucki	Richland Gull Lake	22.5
24	9	Ryan Long	Otsego	22.6
25	9	George Whitaker	Otsego	24.6
26	10	Kaleb Koestner	Otsego	26.1
27	12	Finn Tauren	Richland Gull Lake	27.7
28	9	John Brickley	Niles	28.1
29	10	Grant Krause	Paw Paw	29.0
30	11	Grayson Campbell	Vicksburg	30.2

REGION 14

Any Big Battles?

The Capital Area teams do a wondrous job of making sure their competition stays close to home. St. Johns, Williamston, and Haslett all have gotten after one another multiple times in the CAAC Red. Charlotte has competed against them all at Greater Lansing, along with the multitudes of smaller meets across the area.

Both the area and league championships give a bit of a preview of what’s to come. For league action, Haslett was able to overwhelm both St. Johns and Williamston with its depth. The Vikings’ 5^th girl, Izzy Brown, was able to slip ahead of Williamston’s 4^th and had a nearly 2 min. gap on the Redwings’ 5^th.

A few days earlier at Greater Lansing, St. Johns was able to derive an advantage on Ava Schafer being a low-stick, her 3 points driving a 20+ point wedge on the other three squads. Even in the large championship field, these four teams placed one after another in the standings. Friday, they’ll likely do the same, in any kind of order.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	DeWitt	56	1.0	95+	95+
2	Charlotte	109	2.9		75
3	Haslett	111	3.1		64
4	St. Johns	116	3.6		44
5	Williamston	124	4.6		17
6	Parma Western	155	6.3
7	Fowlerville	160	6.6
8	Alma	215	8.4
9	Owosso	217	8.6
10	Corunna	284	10.5
11	Eaton Rapids	288	10.6
12	Jackson Northwest	328	12.4
13	Michigan Center	333	12.6
14	Lansing Sexton	414	14.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Alma	37	1.0	95+	95+
2	Parma Western	61	2.0		95+
3	DeWitt	84	3.0		95+
4	Williamston	126	4.5
5	Owosso	131	4.9
6	Haslett	143	5.7
7	Corunna	180	7.2
8	St. Johns	202	8.0
9	Fowlerville	227	8.8
10	Jackson Northwest	307	10.2
11	Charlotte	325	10.8
12	Michigan Center	404	12.3
13	Lansing Eastern	414	13.1
14	Lansing Sexton	423	13.6

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.2
2	10	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids	2.1
3	12	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	3.7
4	11	Avery Silvas	Charlotte	7.4
5	10	Abby Crandell	Owosso	7.4
6	10	Bridget Fullerton	Parma Western	7.5
7	11	Colette Charchut	Haslett	7.7
8	9	Brooklyn Takagishi	DeWitt	8.2
9	10	Rory Doepker	DeWitt	9.7
10	11	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	11.2
11	9	Cecilia Kelly	Williamston	11.9
12	12	Isabella Taber	DeWitt	12.2
13	11	Natalie Kuhl	Parma Western	12.4
14	12	Maddy Takagishi	DeWitt	15.7
15	9	Dakota Budd	Haslett	15.9
16	12	Emily Agnew	DeWitt	16.3
17	10	Grace Mingerink	DeWitt	17.2
18	10	Emma Cook	DeWitt	18.9
19	12	Chloe Khon	Jackson Northwest	19.0
20	12	Andie Wildern	Charlotte	19.5
21	10	Clara Marschall	Fowlerville	19.5
22	11	Jaidyn Nickels	Corunna	22.2
23	12	Natalie Kramer	St. Johns	23.4
24	12	Abby Russell	Haslett	24.7
25	9	Kendall Dorey	Charlotte	25.1
26	12	Kate Church	Haslett	27.6
27	12	Anna Johnson	Alma	29.6
28	12	Avari Montgomery	Charlotte	29.7
29	10	Reggie Cooke	Williamston	30.1
30	11	Helena Goodrich	Charlotte	30.7

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	1.7
2	12	Thomas Larson	Alma	1.8
3	12	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	3.1
4	10	Duncan Palmer	Williamston	6.0
5	12	Aiden Marple	DeWitt	6.4
6	9	Logan Cristian	Parma Western	6.7
7	11	Ryan Good	Parma Western	9.8
8	12	Luca Lebron	Alma	10.3
9	12	Braylon Lenneman	DeWitt	10.4
10	10	Liam Dewitt	Haslett	10.9
11	10	Samuel Johnson	Alma	11.9
12	10	Teddy Weber	Williamston	12.5
13	12	Raymond Herek	Williamston	14.2
14	12	Reagan Ward	St. Johns	15.3
15	11	Kevin Terpstra	Alma	15.6
16	9	Leonidas Erfourth	Owosso	16.6
17	9	Nico Lebron	Alma	17.0
18	9	Livio Muzzin	DeWitt	18.7
19	12	Elijah Baltierra	Alma	20.1
20	11	Will Chelotti	DeWitt	20.6
21	9	Leland Sowle	Parma Western	20.9
22	11	Caleb Lynd	Parma Western	21.6
23	11	Sawyer Zeman	Haslett	25.1
24	10	Roan VanSumeren	Parma Western	27.3
25	11	Kai Miller	Owosso	27.4
26	10	Isaiah Cates	Haslett	27.9
27	12	Payton Chandler	Corunna	28.2
28	11	Ariston Dallas	Owosso	28.6
29	10	Brady Rappuhn	Owosso	29.2
30	10	Christian LeConte	Owosso	29.6

REGION 15

Any Big Battles?

Two spots for three girls teams.

Freeland and Frankenmuth, two league and county foes, alongside a rising Shepherd. The former two are right there with one another, the largest separation at county and league meets over the past month was a whopping five points. That Freeland five point victory was a month back at the 2^nd TVC Jamboree, since then, Frankenmuth has claimed the two with a lesser margin.

Heck, even at the massive Bluejay Invite, the two squads were seven points apart, but that field isn’t all that comparable to the regional composition. What also isn’t comparable is how Shepherd ran at their home invite and at their final JPC Jamboree, also held in their friendly environs. An average of 33 seconds faster across their top seven, an indicator that the Bluejays are right at the level of the Falcons and Eagles.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Goodrich	48	1.0	95+	95+
2	Frankenmuth	67	2.5		86
3	Freeland	74	3.1		68
4	Shepherd	75	3.4		46
5	Imlay City	210	5.6
6	Birch Run	211	5.8
7	Saginaw Swan Valley	234	7.7
8	Flint Powers Catholic	248	8.9
9	Clio	249	9.1
10	Essexville-Garber	250	9.2
11	Flint Kearsley	257	9.8
12	North Branch	297	12.0
13	Bay City John Glenn	316	12.9

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Flint Powers Catholic	28	1.0	95+	95+
2	Shepherd	82	2.3		95+
3	Frankenmuth	90	3.3		90
4	Saginaw Swan Valley	129	4.1		7
5	Freeland	137	4.4
6	Bay City John Glenn	206	6.4
7	Flint Kearsley	212	6.7
8	Ortonville Brandon	237	8.4
9	North Branch	249	9.2
10	Goodrich	261	10.1
11	Birch Run	271	10.8
12	Imlay City	285	11.5
13	Bay City Central	314	12.9
14	Clio	337	13.9

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	2.2
2	11	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	2.9
3	10	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich	3.9
4	11	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	3.9
5	12	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth	4.2
6	10	Danica Redes	Shepherd	6.1
7	11	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	9.4
8	12	Samantha Brown	Clio	9.7
9	9	Katie Niederquell	Freeland	10.7
10	11	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	11.4
11	11	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	11.8
12	11	Claire Arnold	Essexville-Garber	12.0
13	10	Mila Villarreal	Flint Powers Catholic	12.1
14	11	Claire Brown	Goodrich	12.5
15	10	Cailyn Baker	Shepherd	12.9
16	12	Megan Gimmey	Shepherd	15.8
17	10	Ava Clark	Goodrich	16.7
18	10	Gabriella Dallas	Freeland	17.4
19	12	Emilee Young	Shepherd	18.3
20	9	Grace Kloha	Freeland	20.9
21	10	Sarah Warner	Shepherd	22.8
22	12	Gabby Cleveland	Frankenmuth	24.2
23	11	Isabel Reinke	Freeland	25.0
24	11	Madison Moeggenborg	Shepherd	26.5
25	10	Ellie Thering	Freeland	27.4
26	11	Olivia Mielke	Freeland	27.8
27	11	Aubrey Hare	Saginaw Swan Valley	28.7
28	9	Addyson Campbell	Goodrich	29.0
29	11	Brynn Robinson	Shepherd	29.4
30	12	Madeline Dunn	Goodrich	30.6

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic	2.1
2	12	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	3.7
3	12	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	4.1
4	12	Caleb Carignan	Flint Powers Catholic	6.9
5	12	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	7.2
6	10	Ryan Rathsburg	Flint Powers Catholic	7.7
7	11	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	8.5
8	12	Tommy Beiter	Flint Powers Catholic	10.7
9	11	Nick Parker	Frankenmuth	10.7
10	12	Murphy Wagner	Saginaw Swan Valley	11.2
11	12	Jacob Hylton	Ortonville Brandon	11.6
12	11	Seth Betzold	Essexville-Garber	12.6
13	11	Jakin Whitney	Shepherd	15.3
14	12	Cole Fernandez	Flint Kearsley	17.9
15	11	William McDonald	Shepherd	18.5
16	12	Henry Schanbeck	Bay City John Glenn	19.8
17	10	Griffin Solano	Flint Powers Catholic	20.2
18	12	Anthony Plana	Frankenmuth	20.9
19	11	Ben Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	21.2
20	9	Ryan Brown	Freeland	21.6
21	12	Ian McNeel	Shepherd	22.5
22	12	Jace Thomas	Birch Run	23.7
23	11	Spencer Dammann	Saginaw Swan Valley	25.2
24	10	Leif Briggs-Lind	Bay City John Glenn	25.8
25	12	Adam Howell	Flint Kearsley	27.3
26	11	Jaden Rodriguez	Saginaw Swan Valley	27.9
27	9	Everett Anaya	Freeland	28.9
28	12	Cole Pergram	Frankenmuth	29.0
29	11	Jackson Horn	Freeland	29.1
30	11	Braeden Conger	Frankenmuth	31.1

REGION 16

Any Big Battles?

Fenton vs. Pinckney in the boys’ race. Linden vs. Pinckney in the girls’ race. Each tight knit battle features a race against one another. The first one we’ll see includes the home team, with their course knowledge vs. Pinckney, no stranger to hills in their every day life. The Pirates did take the trek up here for the Linden Classic, defeated by 13 points, though missing Julia Garcia. On the other hand, the Linden of the last few weeks is drastically different than the one from September.

More recently, the boys of Fenton and Pinckney faced off at Gabriel Richard. This is an interesting one, perhaps entirely dependent on where the packs of points lie (side note: this is one aspect of XC I love – how scoring can change in the context of what the rest of the field is doing). Both the Pirate and Tiger frontrunners and 4^th/5^th guys were almost identical. Fenton’s 2^nd man was at 16:08, 14 sec. and 10 places ahead of Pinckney’s #2. Pinckney’s 3^rd was at 16:33, 20 sec. and 13 places ahead of Fenton’s #3. The result of the meet was a 8-point win in favor of Pinckney. The projections think that the latter gap could be greater than the former, not in terms of time, but just how this field is composed. So a bit of a margin at Hudson Mills is lessened to what is essentially a coin flip.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Pinckney	63	1.4	62	95+
2	Linden	64	1.6	38	95+
3	Bloomfield Hills Marian	108	3.1		92
4	Farmington Hills Mercy	146	4.5		6
5	Dearborn Divine Child	175	5.8
6	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	176	6.0
7	Lake Fenton	183	6.3
8	Oak Park	207	7.7
9	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	236	9.5
10	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	247	10.1
11	Fenton	265	11.3
12	Detroit Country Day	269	11.6
13	Madison Heights Lamphere	275	12.1
14	Garden City	437	14.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Fenton	53	1.5	51	95+
2	Pinckney	54	1.6	49	95+
3	Detroit Country Day	93	3.0		95+
4	Dearborn Divine Child	143	4.4
5	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	156	5.3
6	Linden	156	5.3
7	Oak Park	188	7.1
8	Lake Fenton	203	7.8
9	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	236	9.0
10	Madison Heights Lamphere	266	10.2
11	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	291	11.5
12	Garden City	293	11.4
13	Pontiac	403	13.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	1.0
2	10	Ana Lovell	Lake Fenton	3.1
3	12	Julia Garcia	Pinckney	3.2
4	11	Addison Josephson	Linden	3.4
5	12	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	7.1
6	11	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	8.6
7	9	Jordane Falvey	Dearborn Divine Child	10.0
8	10	Molly Roberts	Linden	10.3
9	10	Eastynn Charder	Pinckney	12.2
10	10	Lucy Bott	Fenton	12.6
11	11	Hannah Haines	Madison Heights Lamphere	13.6
12	12	Annabelle Ellenbogen	Detroit Country Day	14.0
13	10	Courtney Floeter	Linden	14.4
14	11	Lucille Clark	Bloomfield Hills Marian	17.4
15	10	Jade Siy	Madison Heights Lamphere	18.9
16	12	Roisin Whelan	Bloomfield Hills Marian	19.2
17	10	Gabby Schuff	Bloomfield Hills Marian	19.7
18	11	Elliana Hufton	Lake Fenton	22.1
19	10	Valyntina Garcia	Pinckney	23.1
20	9	Julia Geisz	Bloomfield Hills Marian	24.8
21	12	Brooklyn Reason	Pinckney	25.5
22	12	Elizabeth Salinas	Dearborn Divine Child	26.2
23	11	Isabella Kaminskas	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	26.7
24	10	Zahiya Khan	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	26.7
25	11	Diya Goyal	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	26.8
26	11	Leah Thomas	Oak Park	27.0
27	10	Elizabeth Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	27.0
28	11	Paige Willman	Lake Fenton	28.7
29	11	Sidney Shepard	Linden	29.7
30	10	Morgan Hamilton	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	30.2

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Gavin Katic	Fenton	1.6
2	11	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	2.2
3	12	Cole Wisniewski	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	4.1
4	10	Jack Hincks	Detroit Country Day	5.0
5	11	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day	6.2
6	12	Brodie Licata	Lake Fenton	6.7
7	10	Gerard Gilmour	Fenton	7.1
8	9	John Rochowiak	Pinckney	8.9
9	10	Andrew Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	10.6
10	10	Jackson Butts	Lake Fenton	11.1
11	11	Lincoln Reed	Pinckney	12.6
12	11	Ben Panter	Fenton	13.5
13	9	Alex Hagerty	Pinckney	17.0
14	11	Jackson Defina	Fenton	17.1
15	11	Caleb Maciag	Pinckney	17.4
16	12	Nate Sandula	Pinckney	19.6
17	11	Joseph Arriola	Dearborn Divine Child	20.0
18	11	Jackson Martin	Fenton	20.0
19	11	Grant Goodwin	Dearborn Divine Child	20.1
20	10	Bo Cooke	Pinckney	20.4
21	10	Landen Bermudez	Dearborn Divine Child	20.5
22	10	Abram Larsen	Fenton	20.8
23	12	Shondell Warren	Oak Park	20.9
24	11	Grant Hunault	Fenton	21.7
25	9	Hari Varma	Detroit Country Day	24.3
26	10	Ethan Bray	Detroit Country Day	26.7
27	9	Ben Socia	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	28.4
28	10	Ben Sushynski	Linden	28.9
29	9	Kipton Smyth	Linden	32.1
30	12	Carter Johnston	Linden	33.2

REGION 17

Any Big Battles?

Wow, these teams are close. Each gender, too! A projected six points separate 2^nd through 4^th on the boys’ side, 14 are between 1^st and 4^th for the girls. St. Clair and Yale are in the mix of it for both, Macomb Lutheran North and Armada will feel the pressure in the girls’ race, and the Grosse Pointe North boys have a chance of advancing for another week.

Common competitions can give you a semblance of a clue. For instance, Yale’s girls were able to best Armada in the past two BWAC Jamborees. Or they could confuse you, as St. Clair used their depth to beat Yale at the Marysville Invite. But then if you look at a deep Holly field, St. Clair and Armada were neck and neck.

On the boys’ side, similar confusion abounds. During MAC Red meets and at Gabriel Richard, St. Clair held a significant margin over Grosse Pointe North. The most recent event for the two, Haunted Harvest, featured a GPN win, their pack tightly-wound with four boys between 17:50 and 18:10. Where St. Clair has gone, Yale has followed, extremely close in margin. Less than 5 points separated the squads at Brooks and Muskrat, the gap was 3 places at Portage. Extrapolating from that, you gotta assume that Yale > GPN, but not if it’s last week’s GPN.

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Armada	64	1.7	53	95+
2	Macomb Lutheran North	72	2.6	26	69
3	St. Clair	75	2.7	14	73
4	Yale	78	3.1	7	60
5	Marysville	107	4.9
6	Croswell-Lexington	154	6.0
7	Warren Regina	194	7.3
8	Grosse Pointe North	203	7.7
9	Detroit University Prep	257	9.0
10	Harper Woods	309	10.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Macomb Lutheran North	45	1.1	94	95+
2	St. Clair	71	2.9		74
3	Yale	72	2.9		77
4	Grosse Pointe North	77	3.2		49
5	Marysville	106	4.9
6	Croswell-Lexington	151	6.0
7	Armada	179	7.0
8	Eastpointe	262	8.2
9	Harper Woods	272	8.8

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North	1.2
2	9	Claire Albrecht	Armada	2.8
3	10	Saige Cole	Yale	3.3
4	10	Madelyn Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	5.4
5	12	Abigail Denoyer	Armada	5.9
6	12	Molly McNabb	St. Clair	8.4
7	9	Katelyn Schweihofer	Yale	8.5
8	11	Lillian Bender	Yale	9.6
9	10	Lucy Gump	Macomb Lutheran North	10.5
10	12	Joselyn Chapman	Marysville	11.1
11	9	Kamille Fitzpatrick	Armada	12.7
12	11	Ella Thornton	St. Clair	13.0
13	10	Malani May	Detroit University Prep	16.7
14	11	Avery Stallmann	Macomb Lutheran North	16.8
15	11	Abbey Morabito	St. Clair	18.2
16	11	Kenzie LeVey	Marysville	20.1
17	9	Josie Komarowski	St. Clair	20.6
18	11	Evelyn Buckley	Macomb Lutheran North	20.6
19	11	Gabriella Komarowski	St. Clair	21.1
20	11	Helena Reiff	Armada	21.8
21	11	Ava Childers	Yale	22.1
22	10	Hailey Morrison	Croswell-Lexington	22.2
23	10	Peyton Simmons	Marysville	22.4
24	9	Stella Bishop	St. Clair	23.0
25	12	Lydia McBride	Marysville	25.3
26	11	Addison Noteboom	Armada	25.5
27	10	Maylin Parish	Grosse Pointe North	25.6
28	12	Pauline Chapman	Richmond	26.5
29	10	Rachel McDonell	St. Clair	26.9
30	9	Ariana Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	27.7

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	1.3
2	12	Xavier Roman	Macomb Lutheran North	3.7
3	11	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair	4.6
4	12	Nolan Korolden	Yale	5.0
5	12	Brayden Prieskorn	St. Clair	6.3
6	10	Brady VanConant	Yale	8.7
7	11	Connor Pepin	Croswell-Lexington	9.8
8	12	Neil Orlowski	Grosse Pointe North	11.3
9	10	Mason Pietrykowski	Richmond	11.8
10	11	Brendan Koza	Marysville	11.8
11	11	Antonino Biondo	Macomb Lutheran North	11.8
12	12	Sam Parish	Grosse Pointe North	12.6
13	11	Logan Rhodes	Yale	12.8
14	10	Elliot Alef	Macomb Lutheran North	13.5
15	9	Caleb McBride	Marysville	14.5
16	12	Paul Stephens	Grosse Pointe North	15.0
17	11	Jeremy Johnson	Marysville	17.7
18	9	David Matthews	St. Clair	18.2
19	10	Dylan Phillips	Grosse Pointe North	18.4
20	12	Samuel Kochensparger	Macomb Lutheran North	19.1
21	12	William Haskins	Macomb Lutheran North	19.4
22	10	Griffin Kreger	St. Clair	23.4
23	12	Luke McDonell	St. Clair	23.5
24	12	Leo Bearss	Yale	23.7
25	12	Robert Carrigan	Armada	25.1
26	12	Jack Kerrigan	Croswell-Lexington	27.2
27	10	Logan Carrier	Yale	27.7
28	10	Cole Carless	Yale	27.9
29	10	William Henze	Grosse Pointe North	29.0
30	11	Korey LeVey	Marysville	29.5

REGION 18

Any Big Battles?

Chelsea vs. Adrian boys, with a hint of Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard. Luckily, we’ve got plenty of SEC White runs between the first two and Jackson/Portage between all three.

Between the Maples and Bulldogs, Adrian was able to carry the SEC White action. Barely, scraping by with small margins over Chelsea. The common theme of separation was in the middle of the pack, with kids such as Easton Coscarelli and Landin Fisher driving enough of a gap to gain enough of a point advantage.

Outside of SEC play, the Jackson Invite appears to be the closest comparison to a regional field. And there, Chelsea’s depth stepped up and closed the gap on Adrian, allowing the Bulldogs to place 2^nd, just ahead of both Adrian and Gabriel Richard. And then there’s the Gabriel Richard Invite, where AAGR’s depth was ahead of Chelsea’s, enough to open up a 10-point gap in the Medium Schools division.

Legitimate arguments for each school!

Team

Girls

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	47	1.0	95+	95+
2	New Boston Huron	73	2.0		95+
3	Adrian	99	3.0		95+
4	Chelsea	138	4.7
5	Tecumseh	142	4.9
6	Carleton Airport	150	5.4
7	Milan	199	7.5
8	Grosse Ile	202	7.7
9	Monroe Jefferson	219	8.8
10	Trenton	253	10.1
11	Dundee	267	10.8
12	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	375	12.0

Boys

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %
1	Chelsea	71	1.6	55	95+
2	Adrian	77	2.0	30	95+
3	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	88	2.6	15	92
4	Tecumseh	119	4.2		6
5	New Boston Huron	147	5.7
6	Carleton Airport	148	5.8
7	Flat Rock	164	6.7
8	Monroe Jefferson	187	7.8
9	Grosse Ile	216	8.9
10	Milan	286	10.4
11	Dundee	309	11.0
12	Riverview	324	11.6
13	Trenton	398	13.0

Individual

Girls

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	1.2
2	10	Madison Petty	Adrian	2.7
3	11	Monica Lynn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	4.3
4	12	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron	4.9
5	11	Bridget Fidkowski	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	5.4
6	10	Claire Miller	Monroe Jefferson	7.0
7	10	Ella Baker	Carleton Airport	7.3
8	12	Evelyn Kuhn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	8.0
9	12	Amerie Wilson	Milan	9.3
10	9	Zoey Cheney	New Boston Huron	10.7
11	12	Samantha Bieber	Chelsea	11.4
12	10	Regan Faut	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	14.0
13	12	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron	14.1
14	11	Zora Ziolkowski	Chelsea	14.1
15	10	Karina Mihai-Grammes	Adrian	15.3
16	12	Kaily McDaniel	Milan	15.5
17	11	Ava Pfaffenbach	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	16.5
18	12	Alyssa Korte	Grosse Ile	16.7
19	11	Maya Whelan	Tecumseh	20.0
20	12	Avery Faut	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	22.1
21	10	Jamie Glatfelter	Trenton	22.6
22	9	Loretta Frasca	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	24.3
23	10	Ellia Egle	New Boston Huron	24.9
24	10	Virginia Barrett	Tecumseh	25.6
25	11	Kayla Christesen	New Boston Huron	26.2
26	9	Randee Mulherin	Monroe Jefferson	26.8
27	10	Isa Vargo	New Boston Huron	27.9
28	10	Alexis White	New Boston Huron	28.1
29	11	Ella McFarlane	Riverview	29.4
30	10	Morgan McMichael	Tecumseh	33.9

Boys

Projected	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Moises Salazar Jr.	Adrian	1.2
2	12	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	2.8
3	12	Henry Fredenberg	Chelsea	4.2
4	12	Luke Dulecki	New Boston Huron	5.5
5	11	Wyeth Angus	Chelsea	6.5
6	12	Matthew Carbajo	Grosse Ile	6.7
7	9	Parker Smith	Adrian	8.4
8	10	Eli Morris	Tecumseh	10.9
9	11	Jonathan Rapoza	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	12.4
10	11	Cameron Crane	New Boston Huron	12.9
11	12	Matthew Wright	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	13.9
12	12	Lucas Taraszkiewicz	Flat Rock	14.2
13	12	Joseph Horn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	15.2
14	11	Samuel Clifton	Chelsea	16.2
15	10	Harrison Stamper	Tecumseh	17.4
16	9	Mason Martin	Milan	17.5
17	10	Easton Coscarelli	Adrian	17.5
18	9	Mason Tulik	Monroe Jefferson	17.8
19	10	Dempsey Barrett	Tecumseh	20.5
20	11	Carter Fenner	Adrian	21.4
21	10	Easton Danic	Carleton Airport	21.7
22	12	Miles Dell	Chelsea	24.3
23	11	Leo Alafita	Chelsea	25.8
24	10	Nicholas Ranka	Grosse Ile	26.1
25	10	Ben Kuhn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	26.4
26	11	Conley Poole	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	26.6
27	12	Linus Helzerman	Chelsea	27.7
28	9	Jonathan Love	Chelsea	29.0
29	11	Hunter Rodak	Carleton Airport	29.5
30	11	Tanner Kuhn	New Boston Huron	30.4