2025 Division 4 Finals Projections

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest average score to highest average score
Average Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Place Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top-Ten % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

GIRLS TEAM

If you’ve been watching, this has been coming for years. In the early 2020’s, signs were given that Whitmore Lake would be title contenders for awhile. Speedy underclasswomen, middle schoolers with potential. Led by the ’26 senior class (Sofia Robertson, Elodie Weaver, and Carina Burchi) and supplemented more recently by Kaylie Livingston and Malynda Lambros. Back in ’22 when the storied senior class were freshmen, the Trojans placed 3^rd. Each of the past two years, they’ve taken home the title.

Whitmore Lake is a fairly heavy favorite. They’re a team known for taking on any competition. This year, the Trojans have traveled to Portage, Shepherd, Gabriel Richard, and Holly, amongst many other races. Portage is perhaps the greatest example of their quality. Clearly, the Red n’ White crew has an advantage up front, but even their depth is among the best in the division, as Sofia Robertson was the 2^nd fastest 5^th girl of the D4 race.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Whitmore Lake	115	1st-2nd
2	Hillsdale Academy	182	2nd-6th
3	Kalamazoo Hackett	188	2nd-7th
4	Buckley	205	1st-9th
5	Maple City Glen Lake	213	2nd-9th
6	Grand Traverse Academy	225	2nd-10th
7	Gobles	231	3rd-9th
8	Concord	271	3rd-13th
9	Ubly	278	6th-12th
10	Martin	305	7th-14th
11	Lansing Christian	313	6th-16th
12	Kingston	314	7th-15th
13	Dryden	377	11th-19th
14	Bellaire	381	10th-20th
15	Petoskey St. Michael	393	11th-21st
16	Breckenridge	401	12th-21st
17	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	403	11th-22nd
18	Royal Oak Shrine	425	13th-22nd
19	Petersburg-Summerfield	451	14th-24th
20	Rogers City	452	13th-24th
21	Lutheran Westland	456	17th-23rd
22	Novi Christian Academy	471	16th-24th
23	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	540	19th-26th
24	Fowler	540	22nd-25th
25	Three Oaks River Valley	596	22nd-26th
26	Southfield Christian	651	24th-27th
27	White Pigeon	725	26th-27th

Beyond the Trojans, there are 5-6 teams that have a shot at making the podium:

Hillsdale Academy
Kalamazoo Hackett
Buckley
Maple City Glen Lake
Grand Traverse Academy
Gobles

In common matchups, two stand out. One, pound for pound, the strongest region in the state (Region 29) and Portage, your yearly D4 pre-state meet.

Region 29 featured Buckley, Grand Traverse Academy, and Maple City Glen Lake. In a small region, the Bears’ 14-point margin looms large. The margin was accrued early, three Buckley girls coming in before MCGL’s 2^nd and GTA’s 1^st.

At Portage, Kalamazoo Hackett came out ahead of the rest of the pack. The Irish formula was to have one of the better top-3’s, holding even with Gobles. Adding to the strength up front, having just enough depth that a Hillsdale Academy couldn’t overtake KH.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Whitmore Lake	92	95+	95+
2	Hillsdale Academy		37	95+
3	Kalamazoo Hackett		28	95+
4	Buckley		19	95+
5	Maple City Glen Lake		10	95+
6	Grand Traverse Academy		5	95+
7	Gobles			95+
8	Concord			78
9	Ubly			81
10	Martin			50
11	Lansing Christian			45
12	Kingston			36
13	Dryden
14	Bellaire			6
15	Petoskey St. Michael
16	Breckenridge
17	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
18	Royal Oak Shrine
19	Petersburg-Summerfield
20	Rogers City
21	Lutheran Westland
22	Novi Christian Academy
23	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
24	Fowler
25	Three Oaks River Valley
26	Southfield Christian
27	White Pigeon

Three areas I always look for in a State Finals field:

Who has the best fifth runner? This is often the spot where the most points are exchanged in the shortest segment of time.

Who has the most depth? Better odds are had when you have more athletes capable of impacting the scoring.

Where is the bubble? There’s always a spot where a few seconds = a significant move in the standings. A team with more athletes before/behind the bubble may be less volatile, one with many in the pack may have great variation.

The first two answers are both Hillsdale Academy. We saw evidence of this at Portage, where the Colts had the best 5^th girl in the field and by far the best 7^th. My anticipation is that the bubble will be between the ratings of 75-90 (guessing course conditions will be fast, but with a bit more wind than the previous two years), which I estimate will be around 21:20-22:05. Hillsdale Academy once again answers the bell with potentially the most in that range, Gobles looks to be either on either side of it, and the rest should have a few runners in the midst.

BOYS TEAM

Whereas the first race of the day had a more varied setup, the final D4 race of the season appears to be a bit more straight-forward. Three programs should vie for the win – Maple City Glen Lake, Holland Calvary Christian, and Hillsdale Academy. The latter has been here before, winning three of the past four titles. Hillsdale is a town with a running tradition for many years, the Gina Relays and Bill Lundberg having an indelible impact on the sport in Michigan. Holland Calvary Christian is a newcomer, off to a blazing hot start. The program has been present for around a decade, though it has only fielded full teams for the past 5-6 years. During that time span, the Crusaders have risen quickly, ascending to the MIS podium for the past two seasons. The Drowns had been a Tri-Cities staple for many years and recently took a trek up north to revive the Maple City Glen Lake program. The culture there has been completely turned on its head, revamped, and now looks to be a force for years to come.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Maple City Glen Lake	118	1st-3rd
2	Holland Calvary Christian	126	1st-3rd
3	Hillsdale Academy	157	1st-5th
4	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	210	3rd-7th
5	Kalamazoo Hackett	258	4th-10th
6	Royal Oak Shrine	267	4th-11th
7	Whitmore Lake	280	3rd-14th
8	Breckenridge	295	4th-14th
9	Leland	295	5th-12th
10	Petoskey St. Michael	300	4th-16th
11	Mesick	326	7th-15th
12	Three Oaks River Valley	358	6th-20th
13	Portland St. Patrick	374	9th-19th
14	Riverview Gabriel Richard	384	10th-22nd
15	Lutheran Westland	404	10th-23rd
16	Genesee Christian	418	12th-22nd
17	Gobles	420	12th-23rd
18	Webberville	422	10th-24th
19	Ubly	422	10th-24th
20	Dryden	445	13th-25th
21	Manchester	460	15th-25th
22	Concord	468	15th-25th
23	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	474	14th-27th
24	White Pigeon	492	17th-26th
25	Ellsworth	551	22nd-27th
26	Unionville-Sebewaing	557	21st-27th
27	Mackinaw City	570	23rd-27th

Portage, the ever-present D4 preview, featured all three teams. Maple City Glen Lake jumped out to an early lead, halving the score of both Calvary and Hillsdale Academy. At two miles, HCC began to cut into the gap, Hillsdale Academy close behind. At the finish, there was hardly a margin between Maple City Glen Lake and Calvary Christian, though the Lakers did prevail.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Maple City Glen Lake	52	89	95+
2	Holland Calvary Christian	32	76	95+
3	Hillsdale Academy	15	31	95+
4	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart			95+
5	Kalamazoo Hackett			95+
6	Royal Oak Shrine			92
7	Whitmore Lake			75
8	Breckenridge			69
9	Leland			83
10	Petoskey St. Michael			66
11	Mesick			44
12	Three Oaks River Valley			28
13	Portland St. Patrick			9
14	Riverview Gabriel Richard			12
15	Lutheran Westland			7
16	Genesee Christian
17	Gobles
18	Webberville			6
19	Ubly			7
20	Dryden
21	Manchester
22	Concord
23	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
24	White Pigeon
25	Ellsworth
26	Unionville-Sebewaing
27	Mackinaw City

Raising the questions posed above, Maple City Glen Lake appears to have the best 5^th runner. This was the case at Portage, where Lincoln Bailey gained six places on HCC and nearly halved HA’s place. Past the 5^th guy, Calvary Christian ranks above the other two. Evidence of this was had at Portage, where the Crusader 7^th runner bested either team’s 6^th.

With regard to the bubble, I anticipate the main pack ranging from 140-160 in the ratings, or 18:10-19:10 (I’d expect a +10 adjustment environment). The three squads should all have their scorers cross the line before this range, so expect other racers to have less of an impact on the trophy scoring – this will be scorching showdown.

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

This fall, two girls have stood above the rest, Kaylie Livingston and Libby Smith.

Livingston is the defending champion and previous year’s runner-up. She’s had her usual workup of elite races all throughout the state, facing whomever is out there from whichever division. She’s been in the 17’s on six separate occasions (the most she’s had in any season prior to November). Although she hasn’t hit her absolute personal best, she’s been close, the best effort being a 17:44 to win the MIAC for the 3^rd consecutive year.

Smith is having the best year of her career. The Gobles junior has twice been a prominent figure here, placing 7^th and 3^rd the past two seasons. Late September featured her first ever sub-18, a 17:46 at Otsego. Even disregarding that quick course, other accomplishments abound, such as a 3^rd place finish at Portage and an 18:11 at the Allendale Regional, another best across her three-year career.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Kaylie Livingston	Whitmore Lake
2	11	Libby Smith	Gobles
3	10	Sophia Grinage	Leland
4	10	Callie Sinke	Onekama
5	11	Veyda Conley	Martin
6	8	Faith Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian
7	12	Emma Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett
8	11	Claire Long	Saginaw Nouvel
9	12	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake
10	10	Carmella Julian	Maple City Glen Lake
11	12	Cara Prusakiewicz	Dryden
12	9	Norah Kiley	Kingston
13	9	Ryleigh Alderink	Holton
14	9	Ava Higley	Frankfort
15	11	Addy Zeller	Onekama
16	10	Ella Lamb	Royal Oak Shrine
17	10	Maizy Matthews	Breckenridge
18	11	Evelyn Meyer	Hillsdale Academy
19	11	Lauren Shaffer	Gobles
20	10	Malynda Lambros	Whitmore Lake
21	12	Lilah Kiley	Kingston
22	11	Kiera Piper	Kalamazoo Hackett
23	12	Katie Sweeney	Ubly
24	10	Alyvia Janke	Unionville-Sebewaing
25	10	Cassidy Bowers	Austin Catholic
26	11	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael
27	9	Audrey Pyle	Concord
28	12	Mirthe Breuker	Buckley
29	12	Eleanor Cole	Lutheran Westland
30	10	Deirdre O’Connell	Allen Park Cabrini
31	11	Amelia McKinney	Grand Traverse Academy
32	11	Natalie Burpee	Leland
33	12	Rowan Allen	Mendon
34	10	Melodie Hulinek	Bear Lake
35	9	Alyse Cox	Maple City Glen Lake
36	8	Amelia Hoyt	Bellaire
37	9	Lillian Coen	Ellsworth
38	10	Zoe Fabing	Fowler
39	11	Adrienne Mitchell	Lansing Christian
40	11	Lindsey Nordyke	Byron Center Zion Christian
41	10	Payton King	Kingston
42	12	Alyssa Spicer	Mesick
43	11	Ava DeYoung	Gobles
44	11	Addison Patrzik	Grand Traverse Academy
45	12	Kinsey Peer	Buckley
46	10	Claire Wright	Dryden
47	11	Haley Stimer	Concord
48	10	Alayna Ottenbacher	Maple City Glen Lake
49	11	Brie Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett
50	10	Skylar Maclennan	Fulton
51	11	Elizabeth Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes
52	12	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake
53	11	Mikayla Kulawiak	Buckley
54	12	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake
55	9	Eliza Roberts	Hillsdale Academy
56	10	Fenlynn Johnson	Rogers City
57	10	Abbygail Plester	Ubly
58	9	Zakia Wagoner	Onekama
59	9	Josephine Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes
60	9	Heather Morris	Hillsdale Academy
61	12	Elizabeth Caspar	Hillsdale Academy
62	11	Madison Smith	Grand Traverse Academy
63	12	Annabelle Czeiszperger	Hudson
64	11	Cailin Spearman	Harbor Beach
65	9	Brooklyn Griffin	Buckley
66	10	Andi Kirkman	Genesee Christian
67	12	Madison Prowse	Brown City
68	9	Audrey Rinehart	Concord
69	10	Allison Schmitt	Clarkston Everest Collegiate
70	9	Ellie Wright	Maple City Glen Lake
71	11	Allie Miller	Hillsdale Academy
72	12	Olive Wakefield	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
73	11	Tess Hoedel	Grand Traverse Academy
74	9	Cassa Minnis	Dansville
75	12	Delaney Richardson	Byron
76	10	Mea Wesley	Petoskey St. Michael
77	10	Bristol Skop	East Jordan
78	12	Makenzie Wolfe	Petersburg-Summerfield
79	11	Maren Gehrke	Hillsdale Academy
80	11	Danielle Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston
81	11	Annie Wernet	Lansing Christian
82	12	Mary Schlueter	Hillsdale Academy
83	9	Madalyn Dewey	Bellaire
84	12	Kate Van Es	Kalamazoo Hackett
85	10	Myah Peruski	Ubly
86	10	Madison Deutschmann	Byron Center Zion Christian
87	10	Allison Ost	Petersburg-Summerfield
88	10	Ava Bates	Lutheran Westland
89	9	Ella Gustner	Dryden
90	11	Jessica Stouten	Vestaburg
91	11	Avary Bearden	East Jordan
92	9	Reese Brege	Rogers City
93	10	Gabriella Wood	Lansing Christian
94	10	Allison Rodgers	Martin
95	10	Madison Markowicz	Novi Christian Academy
96	9	Maezee Humm	Breckenridge
97	10	Delaney McBride	Kalamazoo Hackett
98	11	Avery Langlois	Rogers City
99	12	Cieara Barrett	Concord
100	12	Juliette Tallon	Lansing Christian

In the past, I used to delve deep into an individual’s odds, how they fared against each other. As the years wear on, I don’t feel this is productive before a major race. I’d much rather celebrate accomplishments and call out breakthroughs after.

If I had to anticipate where the All-State cutoff may lie, I’d bet on 20:30 being the absolute slowest time required to get on the podium. The numbers have approximately 60 girls (not in the order above) with a decent chance of earning a medal. Past MITCA, when I pen a breakdown, I’ll get into which %’s I had tabulated for everyone.

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

It’s Marek Butkiewicz and his merry band of seniors. Butkiewicz arrived late in his freshman year and has been a D4 presence ever since. His first title came on the track as a sophomore and he’s been winning ‘em ever since, one of the crowns including 2024’s cross title. He’s found a bit more competition this year, racing at Jackson and Gabriel Richard, being pulled along by those Pioneer boys. A Sharp Park crack at a sub-15 fell a little short, but the Hudson Mills attempt was well-realized, as Butkiewicz nabbed a 14:59. That 14:59 leads the division by a considerable margin.

Which is impressive because this is one of the better D4 years and fields I’ve ever seen. At this point prior to November, 8 boys have found their way into the 15’s. This is an upward trend, as at this point in 2024, there were 7 boys sub-16. 2023, 6 boys sub-16. 2022, 4 boys sub-16. At the tail end of the pattern, a group of seniors – Abenezer Cerone, Brody Karg, Landon Rogers, Landen Livingston, Grayson Rorick. Even those rapidly coming up on these kids, such as Carson Burgess and Sean Siems.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Marek Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett
2	12	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine
3	12	Brody Karg	Harbor Beach
4	12	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley
5	11	Kyle Redman	Mesick
6	12	Grayson Rorick	Hillsdale Academy
7	12	Carson Burgess	Brown City
8	12	Sean Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett
9	12	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake
10	11	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian
11	11	Ty Redman	Mesick
12	9	Mason Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley
13	9	Spencer McNitt	Maple City Glen Lake
14	11	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian
15	11	Brady Edwards	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
16	10	Lincoln Laansma	Tri-unity Christian
17	11	Anthony Rowe	Breckenridge
18	12	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael
19	11	Abraham Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake
20	12	Joel Johnson	Detroit Frederick Douglass
21	11	Gibson White	Holland Calvary Christian
22	11	Daniel Chaney	Lake Leelanau St. Mary
23	12	Max Brannan	Lutheran Westland
24	9	Christian Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake
25	12	Jack Sharar	Rogers City
26	12	Liam McCaw	Maple City Glen Lake
27	10	Nathan West	Webberville
28	12	Michael Bowker	Royal Oak Shrine
29	12	Luke Molenkamp	Hillsdale Academy
30	12	Jonah Pollatz	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
31	12	Timothy Chamberlain	Portland St. Patrick
32	11	Jacob Ferdubinski	Riverview Gabriel Richard
33	12	Quentin Smith	Fowler
34	11	Lincoln Bailey	Maple City Glen Lake
35	9	Gavin Bowers	Austin Catholic
36	11	Timothy Gaebler	Hillsdale Academy
37	12	Reuben Jiran	Novi Christian Academy
38	10	Lance Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern
39	12	jeremiah Thurman	Detroit Frederick Douglass
40	11	Amos Norder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
41	11	Brody VanTuinen	Holland Calvary Christian
42	11	Wesley Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
43	12	Carter Clark	Carson City-Crystal
44	12	Logan Romain	Dryden
45	11	Owen Wruble	Harbor Beach
46	12	Keith Crompton	Frankfort
47	10	Peter Winn	Hillsdale Academy
48	12	Jesse Fielis	White Pigeon
49	11	Francis Austen	Portland St. Patrick
50	10	Carter Suttmann	Leland
51	12	Grant Johnson	Manchester
52	10	Nolan Stadel	Genesee Christian
53	12	Ian Ferguson	Genesee Christian
54	11	Rush Marsden	Fulton
55	9	Weston Guza	Ubly
56	11	Elias Baldwin	Decatur
57	11	Alec Dodak	Manchester
58	9	Ethan Harrand	Buckley
59	9	Oliver Burt	Breckenridge
60	12	Cole Brege	Rogers City
61	12	Corey Dubnicki	Jackson Preparatory
62	11	Carter Toensfeldt	Fairview
63	10	Caleb Chamberlin	Petoskey St. Michael
64	12	Cole Upper	Alcona
65	11	Silas Carroll	Ivywood Classical Academy
66	12	Nicholas Trader	Fairview
67	10	Zander Chellis	Ellsworth
68	12	Rich Fanti	Riverview Gabriel Richard
69	12	Michael Walsh	Ubly
70	12	Gianino Perna	Marlette
71	12	Freddie Bierling	Byron Center Zion Christian
72	12	Maddox Hutchinson	Concord
73	10	Levi Fitchett	Dryden
74	11	Brennan Robinson	Kingston
75	10	Nolan Koscinski	Bear Lake
76	12	Ben Young	Lansing Christian
77	10	Reagan Downing	Holland Calvary Christian
78	11	Dominick Chiverton	Breckenridge
79	11	Caleb Adkins	Holland Calvary Christian
80	10	Campbell Fedderman	Leland
81	11	Micah Arlow	Cardinal Mooney Catholic
82	10	Hannes Graebel	Leland
83	11	Brody Jeruzal	Ann Arbor Christian
84	10	Christopher Knudsen	Leland
85	12	Lukas Rennells	Muskegon Catholic Central
86	10	Kadin McGee	Decatur
87	12	Paul Herendeen	Concord
88	11	Owen Ledebuhr	Holland Calvary Christian
89	10	Atticus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael
90	9	Easton Harrand	Buckley
91	9	Henry Rorick	Hillsdale Academy
92	11	Kellen Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett
93	11	Noah Dubridge	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
94	9	Lucas Volmering	Ubly
95	11	Nate Ruhstorfer	Hesperia
96	9	Gabe Schultz	Genesee Christian
97	12	Joseph Stevens	Southfield Christian
98	9	Fletcher Amos	Gobles
99	10	Will Bernacki	Royal Oak Shrine
100	12	Gavin Howery	Webberville

My guess is that the course is a bit slower (you can’t have better wind than the past two years) and that the All-State cutoff could be a bit slower than in year’s past. But I wouldn’t feel safe above 16:45. As with the girls, approximately 60 boys (not in the order listed above) have a decent chance of stepping on the podium.