2025 Division 3 Finals Projections

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest average score to highest average score
Average Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Place Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top-Ten % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

GIRLS TEAM

The east side of Lansing is teeming with talent. Purely distance girls, mid-distance girls, hurdlers, a combination of which that is speedy on the track and title-worthy on the grass. That combination of ability led to a Lansing Catholic championship in 2024 and has positioned the Cougars as the favorite in 2025. Last year, the Cougars won on their strength from their 5^th girl (Avery Miller), who was the fastest 5^th in the field. Her 38^th place in the team race helped her Cougars come back and pass Pewamo-Westphalia in the team scoring.

The top six have returned from that 2024 MIS squad, enough quality that would have led the Cougars to the #1 spot. Extra insurance has been added in the form of Anna Drauer, a freshman that’s been a consistent presence in the 19’s this latter half of the season. The Cougars as a whole have not been complacent. They’ve captured the CAAC White yet again, keeping the 14-year streak alive. They achieved the lowest score ever in the history of the Michigan Catholic Invite. In the Portage pre-state setting, the team dominated the D3 field enroute to a 80+ point victory. The accomplishments abound in the regular season and can clearly be capped by another championship season title.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Lansing Catholic	81	1st-2nd
2	Pewamo-Westphalia	188	2nd-5th
3	Saugatuck	232	2nd-8th
4	Blissfield	244	2nd-8th
5	Jackson Lumen Christi	248	2nd-10th
6	Olivet	277	3rd-11th
7	Hart	284	2nd-13th
8	Grandville Calvin Christian	305	5th-13th
9	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	306	4th-14th
10	Benzie Central	318	4th-15th
11	Traverse City St. Francis	340	5th-18th
12	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	348	7th-17th
13	Remus Chippewa Hills	356	9th-17th
14	McBain	361	6th-20th
15	Kent City	369	7th-20th
16	Bronson	404	11th-22nd
17	Plymouth Christian Academy	405	13th-20th
18	Caro	428	13th-23rd
19	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	440	12th-24th
20	Stanton Central Montcalm	470	17th-24th
21	Leslie	481	16th-25th
22	Bath	489	17th-26th
23	Harbor Springs	490	17th-25th
24	Bridgman	549	21st-27th
25	Grass Lake	558	20th-28th
26	Boyne City	577	21st-28th
27	Monroe St. Mary CC	622	25th-28th
28	Fennville	637	24th-28th

Although the Cougars aren’t truly 100% favorites to win it (no one is!), the question is: who joins LC on the podium? Four teams have a distinct possibility:

Pewamo-Westphalia
Saugatuck
Jackson Lumen Christi
Blissfield

As these squads are based in different regions of Michigan, common matchups aren’t all that common. One did occur at Portage, where P-W placed 2^nd, ahead of Saugatuck and Lumen Christi. P-W and Saugatuck also faced off at the former’s home invite, with the Pirates once again holding serve.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Lansing Catholic	95+	95+	95+
2	Pewamo-Westphalia		64	95+
3	Saugatuck		12	95+
4	Blissfield		6	95+
5	Jackson Lumen Christi		13	95
6	Olivet			93
7	Hart			82
8	Grandville Calvin Christian			70
9	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian			69
10	Benzie Central			55
11	Traverse City St. Francis			35
12	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian			22
13	Remus Chippewa Hills			17
14	McBain			29
15	Kent City			19
16	Bronson			7
17	Plymouth Christian Academy
18	Caro
19	Saginaw Valley Lutheran			6
20	Stanton Central Montcalm
21	Leslie
22	Bath
23	Harbor Springs
24	Bridgman
25	Grass Lake
26	Boyne City
27	Monroe St. Mary CC
28	Fennville

I’ll refer back to the questions posed yesterday:

Who has the best 5^th girl? Likely either Saugatuck or Pewamo-Westphalia. At the two common invites, the Pirates held a slight edge at the 5^th spot, but Saugatuck still has had five girls sub-21 on the year.

Who holds the greatest depth through all varsity runners? Probably Pewamo-Westphalia, who appears interchangeable in their 4^th-6^th slots.

Who steers clear of the bubble? The numbers guess that the main pack of girls will be rated 80-95, or what I would anticipate to be 21:00-21:50. Saugatuck, Blissfield, and Pewamo-Westphalia will all likely have 3-4 girls clear of the pack, Jackson Lumen Christi will have many entrenched in the mix. So there are scenarios where the Titans punch above their projection with the possibility of a few seconds meaning multiple places.

BOYS TEAM

This D3 boys’ race could be the race of the day. Three teams in close proximity, the top trio projected within 8 points of one another. And a non-zero chance that a major upset occurs from the projected 4^th, 5^th, or even 6^th spot. Traverse City St. Francis, 2024’s Division 3 Champion and commonly found outfit up here in the standings left quite a void, returning only one athlete from their title squad. Thus, this championship was always up for grabs.

Saugatuck has always been thought of a contender, both from this season’s work and last fall’s impressive runner-up finish. The Trailblazers weren’t projected anywhere near the 2024 podium, yet were able to pack up and bring home a trophy. The team, fully comprised of underclassmen, set their top-five between 16:19 and 16:46, barreling their way into the 2^nd spot through their tremendous depth.

Jackson Lumen Christi perhaps didn’t have the best day last year, but you can imagine that has spurred their inclusion in this conversation. Especially when one peeks at the improvement of their varsity boys, many impactful time drops by multiple minutes.

Apparent in the spring was the progress of Charlevoix. Three underclassmen that were sub-10 in the 3200m. A State Title in the same event from Hunter Eaton. State qualifiers and a pair of 11^th place finishes from Ryder Hopkins and Matthew Solomon.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	175	1st-6th
2	Charlevoix	179	1st-7th
3	Saugatuck	187	1st-8th
4	Lansing Catholic	211	1st-8th
5	Ithaca	215	1st-9th
6	Hanover-Horton	266	1st-14th
7	Stanton Central Montcalm	274	4th-13th
8	Jonesville	282	4th-14th
9	Benzie Central	283	3rd-14th
10	The Potter’s House	313	5th-16th
11	Buchanan	332	4th-19th
12	Holland Black River	342	7th-18th
13	Hart	344	7th-18th
14	Ann Arbor Greenhills	352	7th-20th
15	Plymouth Christian Academy	375	9th-21st
16	Lake City	381	8th-21st
17	Pewamo-Westphalia	429	13th-24th
18	Erie Mason	441	12th-26th
19	Midland Bullock Creek	445	13th-26th
20	Caro	453	15th-26th
21	Blissfield	456	14th-25th
22	Montague	468	15th-27th
23	Traverse City St. Francis	509	18th-27th
24	Montrose	511	16th-27th
25	Schoolcraft	512	17th-27th
26	Harbor Springs	521	19th-27th
27	Monroe St. Mary CC	526	17th-27th

Unlike the first D3 race of the day, common matchups are easy to find. Plenty took place throughout mid-September. Two prominent ones occurred just before championship season: Portage and Bluejay. And Region 23 gives a little hope of what could be an incredible upset.

Bluejay was one of the few races that we saw Charlevoix in action against the other top teams. The Rayders were the top D3 team in the elite section, placing 9^th out of 35 teams. Ithaca and Central Montcalm also competed there, placing 21^st and 22^nd – the Rayders cleared either squad by approximately 200 points. That wasn’t Ithaca’s day, as some of the Yellowjackets’ better performances have come of late.

A week later, at the Portage bonanza, Hanover-Horton, Lansing Catholic, and Saugatuck all jumped out the gate, nearing the lead at the mile. In the middle mile, the Titans surged to the lead, one they wouldn’t relinquish. It’s that kind of strategy that gives confidence for state, pouncing as the adrenaline wears off from the excited and anxious field. But with only a 24-point gap to Saugatuck and 20 more to Lansing Catholic, it showed that there isn’t a huge gap at the top end of the contenders.

Region 23 furthered that point, three top-ten teams present at Sharp Park – Lumen Christi, Hanover-Horton, and Jonesville. The former Comets nearly pulled off the upset, a huge performance (35+ second SB) from Zach Hassenzahl pulling H-H to within a point of Lumen Christi.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	29	52	95+
2	Charlevoix	24	47	95+
3	Saugatuck	28	44	95+
4	Lansing Catholic	7	19	95+
5	Ithaca	8	20	95+
6	Hanover-Horton		8	76
7	Stanton Central Montcalm			81
8	Jonesville			73
9	Benzie Central			73
10	The Potter’s House			50
11	Buchanan			38
12	Holland Black River			25
13	Hart			26
14	Ann Arbor Greenhills			28
15	Plymouth Christian Academy			13
16	Lake City			12
17	Pewamo-Westphalia
18	Erie Mason
19	Midland Bullock Creek
20	Caro
21	Blissfield
22	Montague
23	Traverse City St. Francis
24	Montrose
25	Schoolcraft
26	Harbor Springs
27	Monroe St. Mary CC

The three posed questions:

Who has the best 5^th runner?

Most likely Lumen Christi, with a lesser chance of Lansing Catholic. At Portage, Avery Morrow handled the heat better than any other D3 5^th kid and was the main driver behind the Titan win. Lansing Catholic had the 2^nd best 5^th performance there and all of their top-five has been sub-17.

Who has the best depth?

There isn’t really any exceptional team here, most have a considerable drop off between their scorers and their 6-7. Lansing Catholic has smallest gap between the two.

Who steers clear of the bubble?

I’d anticipate the main pack crossing the line between 17:00 and 17:40. Lansing Catholic, Saugatuck and Ithaca are the most avoidant of this area. Lumen Christi, Charlevoix, and Hanover-Horton will likely be sparring with others in this range of times. The former two will likely have three come in before it, Hanover-Horton could have many in the mix.

Where am I getting with this? Hanover-Horton could be most variant from their projected spot. Charlevoix, Lumen Christi, and Saugatuck will have many spots to gain (and points to lose) from their depth. Lansing Catholic and Ithaca appear the most stable and could move up on any potential subpar performance from the above teams.

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

A few names have had excellent careers to date and have come to the forefront this season:

Hailey Creisher – defeated only twice this season, victorious on 14 occasions. At Greater Lansing, was able to slip under 18:00 for the 2^nd time in her career. Back-to-back winner of the Cascades Conference and Region 26.

Samantha Schroeder – has followed the same pattern that led to last year’s 8^th place finish. Has put forth her best material in recent weeks, winning the CHSL Bishop title and finishing first in the D3 race at Portage. Following those wins, the times have come, hitting a season’s best of 18:14 in her Region 23 win.

Hope Miller – following the departure of Emmry Ross, finally has come to claim SE side supremacy. Winner of the Lenawee County, LCAA, and Region 27 titles. Has ventured into the mid-18’s in her past three meets. If track is any indication, 2025 championship meets are her time to shine, as Miller was 2^nd in the 800m and 3^rd in the 1600m.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Hailey Creisher	Leslie
2	11	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi
3	12	Hope Miller	Blissfield
4	10	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet
5	10	Elliana Max	Kent City
6	11	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia
7	11	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic
8	10	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic
9	11	Violet Tetil	Caro
10	9	Calista George	Pewamo-Westphalia
11	11	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville
12	10	Caelyn Torry	McBain
13	12	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids
14	9	Anna Drauer	Lansing Catholic
15	10	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills
16	9	Lily Britton	Olivet
17	10	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central
18	12	Abigail Reis	Millington
19	12	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC
20	10	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic
21	11	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview
22	12	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson
23	12	Alina Martinson	Saugatuck
24	12	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids
25	9	Tala Carlin	Buchanan
26	12	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek
27	12	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi
28	11	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca
29	10	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic
30	11	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck
31	10	Madisyn Wanstead	LeRoy Pine River
32	12	Aletta Scholten	Grandville Calvin Christian
33	11	Shelby Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
34	11	Natalie Rosema	Hart
35	12	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm
36	11	Marlowe Walcott	Reed City
37	9	Anamaria Brazdau	Plymouth Christian Academy
38	9	Jocelyn Tetil	Caro
39	12	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy
40	9	Kylie Zwiep	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
41	12	Ella Heffner	Charyl Stockwell Academy
42	11	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck
43	11	Betsy Gooden	Manton
44	10	Shelby Zimmer	Kent City
45	12	Hailey Sills	Blissfield
46	10	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran
47	9	Avery Haynes	Brooklyn Columbia Central
48	9	Alaina Civinskas	Roscommon
49	9	Emma Miller	Hart
50	11	Jenna Keilen	Pewamo-Westphalia
51	12	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills
52	11	Anna Hallett	Blissfield
53	12	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic
54	12	Anna Poppema	Bath
55	10	Emma Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis
56	11	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis
57	10	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central
58	10	Alaina Schaner	Hart
59	10	Peyton Nellis	Remus Chippewa Hills
60	10	Aaliyah Hillier	Kalkaska
61	11	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic
62	10	Faith Helsel	Lake City
63	12	Maryrose Halberg	Charlevoix
64	11	Emily Beethe	Saginaw Valley Lutheran
65	11	Lydia Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
66	11	Nico Triebold	Grayling
67	9	Sage Palmer	Sandusky
68	11	Faith Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian
69	9	Lily Sisson	LeRoy Pine River
70	12	Emily Peters	Olivet
71	11	Brynlee Swihart	Hanover-Horton
72	12	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman
73	11	Laura Castrejon	Newaygo
74	10	Lynnae Meengs	Grandville Calvin Christian
75	9	Madelynn Patterson	Olivet
76	11	Ellie Beach	Sanford-Meridian
77	10	Ellason Foster	Newaygo
78	10	Adalyn Jarchow	Grass Lake
79	12	Braelyn Bunting	Stanton Central Montcalm
80	10	Ingrid Molins Rallo	Benzie Central
81	10	Sarah Nothstine	Midland Bullock Creek
82	10	Olivia Brown	Bad Axe
83	9	Ellyse Heyser	Saugatuck
84	12	Georgia Haag	Manistee
85	9	Sydney Knieper	New Lothrop
86	11	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs
87	9	Joselyn Vogel	Kent City
88	9	Allison Burns	Constantine
89	10	Esther Cahill	Saranac
90	9	Kate DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
91	9	Mya Bronkema	McBain
92	9	Jenny Woznick	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
93	11	Delaney Smith	Pewamo-Westphalia
94	11	Alonna Goodsell	Bronson
95	10	Taylor Stanczak	Almont
96	10	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro
97	12	Makenna Gwisdalla	Bad Axe
98	9	Katherine Schafer	Pewamo-Westphalia
99	9	Leah Elzinga	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
100	11	Kaleea Braun	Blissfield

As I stated in the D4 preview, I don’t anticipate the conditions will be *as* optimal as in 2023 or 2024, so I’d expect times to be a little slower. If I had to fathom a guess toward the All-State cutoff, I’d be antsy if I were above 19:30. The projections give around 55 girls (not in the above order) a fighter’s chance of stepping onto that podium.

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

That void does and doesn’t exist for the D3 boys. Although outgoing seniors took the top-two spots, underclassmen had their presence felt throughout the standings.

Gage Hoffman was the top non-senior, hitting a personal best in his 3^rd place finish.

Christian Craanen and Nole Lorenzen established themselves as youngsters to be reckoned with.

Landen Styka hit another sub-16 in a season full of ‘em.

Caleb Blonde was the fastest sophomore.

Hunter Eaton hit a season best and set the stage for his track heroics.

There doesn’t seem to be great differences or tiers between the top runners. Appearing to have the greatest chances of coming out on top are:

Hunter Eaton – who when faced with the opportunity, has brought his best material. The greatest example of that being his 15:22 from Bluejay.

Gage Hoffman – winner of Portage and Region 24 for the 2^nd year in a row.

Nole Lorenzen – two straight Region 26 titles but also ripping some fast times, such as his 15:24 from Larry Steeb.

Christian Craanen – entered MIS last year with a personal best of 16:20. Enters it this year having already run 15:42. Given his performance at the speedway last November, that gives great hope for another breakout.

Luke Herron – had a dramatic jump toward the end of last year (16:01 and 20^th here) and has continued it further, dipping into the 15’s at John Bruder and Brooks Mid-Season.

Caleb Blonde – battle-tested down in the Jackson area. Winner of the Cascades Conference for the second year in a row and captured Region 23 for the first time ever. Sub-16 for the past four races.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix
2	12	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm
3	10	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
4	10	Christian Craanen	Monroe St. Mary CC
5	11	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville
6	11	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale
7	11	Luke Herron	Caro
8	11	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix
9	11	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River
10	11	Chad Tyson	Hanover-Horton
11	12	Landen Styka	Ithaca
12	10	Owen Poppema	Bath
13	12	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House
14	12	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille
15	10	Will Hulin	Centreville
16	11	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck
17	11	Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi
18	12	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix
19	10	Eli VanPoortfliet	Benzie Central
20	10	Clint Couchman	Brooklyn Columbia Central
21	12	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi
22	11	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck
23	11	John Keser	Buchanan
24	12	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids
25	11	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker
26	12	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy
27	12	Jayden Fox	Saginaw Valley Lutheran
28	12	Jeryn Frisbie	Belding
29	11	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City
30	11	Evan MacLaren	Ithaca
31	11	James Tennes	Lansing Catholic
32	10	Soren Crosthwaite	Jackson Lumen Christi
33	12	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic
34	12	Jacob Mankey	Ithaca
35	10	Michael Weidmayer	Blissfield
36	11	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia
37	9	Isaac Cox	Plymouth Christian Academy
38	11	William Gancer	Stockbridge
39	12	John Edler	Homer
40	10	Jackson Bowman	Saugatuck
41	11	Naveen Kulkarni	Ann Arbor Greenhills
42	12	Maxwell Durham	New Haven
43	12	Trenton Fetter	Adrian Madison
44	12	Kyler Fertig	Stanton Central Montcalm
45	12	Jackson Schaub	Benzie Central
46	11	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic
47	10	Tristan Hernandez	Kingsley
48	12	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm
49	11	Levi Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
50	11	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek
51	11	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton
52	12	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg
53	11	Collin Fucile	Jonesville
54	12	Ben Gautsche	Union City
55	12	Peter Soltis	Jackson Lumen Christi
56	10	Noah Sills	Blissfield
57	9	Asher Putman	Reese
58	10	Jack Songer	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
59	11	Evan Civinskas	Roscommon
60	9	Reese Devisser	Schoolcraft
61	10	Edison Huizinga	Manistee
62	11	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck
63	12	Caiden Helsel	Lake City
64	12	Connor Helsel	Lake City
65	12	Alessandro Avila	Constantine
66	12	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville
67	12	Paul Saladin	Reed City
68	10	Ashton Potwin	Jonesville
69	12	Liam McBeth	Buchanan
70	12	Owen Beindit	Algonac
71	11	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview
72	11	David Castrejon	Newaygo
73	10	Nolan Kessler	Montague
74	12	Nico Aagesen	Ann Arbor Greenhills
75	11	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi
76	11	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic
77	12	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan
78	11	Logan Young	Harrison
79	10	Simon Reed	Plymouth Christian Academy
80	11	Easton McCloy	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
81	12	Isaac Johnson	Holland Black River
82	11	Owen Sytsema	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian
83	10	Grant Corlew	Harbor Springs
84	11	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia
85	11	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie
86	9	Sam Casiano	Watervliet
87	11	Gibson Smith	Montague
88	10	Christopher Shemes	Ithaca
89	10	Eli Hobson	Montrose
90	11	Ethan Huff	Homer
91	11	Joseph Colaluca	Erie Mason
92	11	Sebastian Zylstra	Holland Black River
93	10	Tyler Harris	Hanover-Horton
94	10	Grady Richey	Lansing Catholic
95	10	Timothy Wolff	Hart
96	12	Isaac Norcross	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
97	12	Henry Beck	Ann Arbor Greenhills
98	11	Maxwell Drenth	Charlevoix
99	10	Remyngton Clish	Sanford-Meridian
100	12	Isaac Struck-VanderHaak	The Potter’s House

I’d guesstimate 16:30 being the slowest time required for an All-State finish. This is a highly variant mix of kids, around 75 boys having a good shot of earning a medal.