2025 Division 1 Finals Projections

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest average score to highest average score
Average Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Place Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top-Ten % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

GIRLS TEAM

Let’s give a shoutout to Romeo. It truly has been a magical few years over in the upper reaches of Macomb County. Back-to-back state titles, a great showing in Oregon, even a runner-up finish in 2022. This fall, the MAC Red title AGAIN, the Macomb County title AGAIN, and the Region 9 title AGAIN. Guaresimo, Clor, Goodsell, Hrabovsky, Rosbolt – these five have sure presided over some memorable years. One final run together in the red n’ white uniforms, that should be special.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	87	1st-2nd
2	Romeo	147	1st-4th
3	Brighton	201	2nd-8th
4	Holland West Ottawa	212	2nd-8th
5	Hudsonville	240	3rd-10th
6	Northville	246	3rd-11th
7	Jenison	277	3rd-13th
8	Traverse City West	284	4th-14th
9	Ann Arbor Skyline	304	4th-16th
10	Rockford	309	4th-15th
11	Hartland	327	6th-17th
12	Okemos	330	6th-18th
13	Rochester Adams	350	9th-18th
14	Portage Central	363	9th-19th
15	Saline	369	6th-21st
16	Traverse City Central	392	9th-22nd
17	Rochester	392	11th-21st
18	Novi	405	11th-22nd
19	Zeeland East	437	12th-24th
20	Woodhaven Brownstown	451	15th-24th
21	Utica	454	13th-25th
22	Macomb Dakota	500	17th-26th
23	White Lake Lakeland	526	20th-26th
24	Clarkston	533	19th-27th
25	Ann Arbor Huron	549	20th-27th
26	Livonia Churchill	565	21st-27th
27	Salem	673	25th-27th

In any other year, the Bulldogs would be the Division 1 favorite, except 2025. Ann Arbor Pioneer has assembled one of the better teams in the country. They’re led by one of the better runners in the country, Natasza Dudek. Her followers have ripped fast times, three other girls busting through into the 17’s. They’ve added 11^th graders, freshmen, each addition bringing forth more quickness. The Pioneers are so deep that you could likely assemble their JV squad and be a favorite to make it out of most regionals. Thus, they are the Division 1 favorite, but I still can’t discount the championship mettle of Romeo.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	95	95+	95+
2	Romeo	5	79	95+
3	Brighton		14	95+
4	Holland West Ottawa		5	95+
5	Hudsonville			95+
6	Northville			91
7	Jenison			77
8	Traverse City West			76
9	Ann Arbor Skyline			60
10	Rockford			53
11	Hartland			37
12	Okemos			39
13	Rochester Adams			17
14	Portage Central			12
15	Saline			21
16	Traverse City Central			10
17	Rochester
18	Novi
19	Zeeland East
20	Woodhaven Brownstown
21	Utica
22	Macomb Dakota
23	White Lake Lakeland
24	Clarkston
25	Ann Arbor Huron
26	Livonia Churchill
27	Salem

Two programs one also can’t discount are Holland West Ottawa and Brighton. The Panthers and Bulldogs are seemingly always present in the top-ten lists and as podium contenders. Each has the possibility of bringing home a trophy. West Ottawa is carried by their strength through four, that quad of quickness sprinting through the Otsego course with times under 18:30. Brighton is a tad weaker through four, but picks up places from their 5^th spot, such as DeWitt Regional where all five scorers were right near 19-flat or faster.

BOYS TEAM

Winning once is hard enough, three years in a row is a dynasty. In Michigan history, plenty of programs have a three-year streak. Only a few extend it beyond three. If my quick research is correct, only three boys’ teams have done so: Dexter from 2002-2006, Charlevoix from 1987-1991, and Dearborn from 1927-1930. For Northville, a chance at history awaits, but the competition is gonna make it tough.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Northville	156	1st-7th
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	173	1st-7th
3	Kalamazoo Central	204	1st-11th
4	Midland	225	2nd-10th
5	Lowell	231	1st-13th
6	Brighton	240	2nd-12th
7	Grand Ledge	263	2nd-15th
8	Highland-Milford	275	1st-15th
9	Clarkston	293	4th-16th
10	Ann Arbor Skyline	311	3rd-18th
11	Caledonia	320	3rd-19th
12	Traverse City West	322	4th-19th
13	Jenison	346	8th-19th
14	Romeo	351	7th-19th
15	Salem	354	7th-20th
16	Saline	355	6th-21st
17	Plymouth	393	8th-23rd
18	Woodhaven Brownstown	410	10th-23rd
19	Grand Haven	437	10th-26th
20	Rochester	463	15th-25th
21	Detroit Catholic Central	486	15th-26th
22	Livonia Churchill	506	17th-26th
23	Macomb Dakota	513	16th-27th
24	Hudsonville	519	18th-27th
25	White Lake Lakeland	519	17th-27th
26	Oxford	575	20th-27th
27	Utica Eisenhower	633	23rd-27th

Ann Arbor Pioneer will likely provide the stiffest test, but Kalamazoo Central and Lowell both have runners with the ability to make up a state title squad. At Portage, that stiffest test came to fruition, as the Pioneers dominated up front, only needing to score three. Then their depth held serve, which led to a runaway victory. The Mustangs were missing runners from their lineup, but there are no asterisks in cross country, you win or lose with the toes that touch the line. BothKC and Lowell hung with the top-two teams through their 3^rd-4^th runners, but didn’t have the depth needed in the oppressive conditions. Both squads have reason for optimism, as the Giants were without Colby Bartells, who just laid down a 16:24 personal best at Region 3. The Red Arrows didn’t get the greatest race from Cody Bromley, but Bromley has returned with strong efforts, three straight races in the mid-16’s.

The formulas for each of these teams are strikingly similar: a very strong top-2, then who has the best next three? Up front, Ann Arbor Pioneer will almost assuredly have the lowest score. Kamari Ronfeldt and Beckett Crooks are among the top-5, perhaps even the top-3 runners in the entire state. The projections then have Northville, Kalamazoo Central, followed by Lowell.

The depth will decide the fate of who hoists trophies. Lowell, Pioneer, and Northville all seem equal at their 5^th spot. Midland, who I haven’t mentioned, likely has the strongest depth in the field (and they’re consistent, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chemics slide onto the podium with their constant steady efforts). Northville has a bit more to work with, as Manny Coates and Colton Blackburn could each step up.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Northville	46	63	95+
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	20	50	95+
3	Kalamazoo Central	14	28	94
4	Midland		9	95+
5	Lowell	10	17	83
6	Brighton		8	88
7	Grand Ledge		5	75
8	Highland-Milford		6	65
9	Clarkston			55
10	Ann Arbor Skyline			47
11	Caledonia			39
12	Traverse City West			41
13	Jenison			20
14	Romeo			23
15	Salem			23
16	Saline			28
17	Plymouth			14
18	Woodhaven Brownstown			5
19	Grand Haven			6
20	Rochester
21	Detroit Catholic Central
22	Livonia Churchill
23	Macomb Dakota
24	Hudsonville
25	White Lake Lakeland
26	Oxford
27	Utica Eisenhower

To make a long story short, if the teams are evenly matched later in the field, I’d expect Pioneer to prevail. In the case that the Northville/Lowell/KC depth has moved ahead of Pioneer’s, either of the three can win. Northville has more to work with than the latter two teams. And a bit of experience on their side.

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Even her non-descript races are noteworthy. They’re all wins. But some are just 16:47 wins in the SEC Championship. Or 16:16 jaunts through Lake Erie. Nevermind, they’re all impressive and all indicative of one of the better runners we’ve seen roll through these Michigan courses. Natasza Dudek has continued her upward track through her descending times. She entered the season as the top returner from the 2024 race and from a track season where she earned top-4 spots in the D1 1600m & 3200m, to go along with a runner-up finish in the New Balance 5000m.

She’s started her sophomore year on another level, hovering around the 17’s early (a minute faster than comparable races from 2024), before unleashing a 16:29 at Jackson. Unsatisfied with a mid-16 effort, a week later she was contending with an improbable barrier, finally crossing the Otsego line in 16:11. She gapped the field in the Portage heat by over 35 seconds. Each test has brought forth results of time and major margins.

Beyond Dudek, this field is deep and full of youth. With optimal conditions, I can see scenarios where up to 20 girls are sub-18.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	10	Natasza Dudek	Ann Arbor Pioneer
2	10	Rachel Smith	Okemos
3	11	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo
4	10	Sienna Klemmer	Ann Arbor Pioneer
5	10	Emilia Garces	Midland Dow
6	11	El McMahan	Rochester Adams
7	11	Maddie Lindley	Holly
8	11	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville
9	9	Keira Von Blon	Ann Arbor Pioneer
10	11	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West
11	12	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo
12	10	Adalyn Raab	Zeeland East
13	12	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton
14	12	Lilah Yoder	Forest Hills Central
15	12	Ella Goodsell	Romeo
16	9	Alexandra Scappaticci	Northville
17	10	Ainsley Kelm	Portage Northern
18	12	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa
19	12	Hana Boggess	Ann Arbor Pioneer
20	9	Grace Snyder	Hudsonville
21	11	Collette Wierks	Holland West Ottawa
22	11	Paige McMeans	Jenison
23	12	Ella Abraham	Rochester
24	12	October Harns	Okemos
25	10	Savannah Staton	Saline
26	12	Elliana Neuer	Hartland
27	12	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
28	12	Siene Muraszewski	Utica
29	9	Jessica Soldan	Rochester Adams
30	11	Daisy Cox	Rockford
31	9	Kaitlyn Berg	Midland
32	12	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge
33	10	Ella Lorenz	Brighton
34	11	Katelynn Egli	Novi
35	11	Lucia Lachapelle	Northville
36	12	Olivia Stacy	Portage Northern
37	10	Morgan Sanders	Rockford
38	9	Maribelle Kofahl	Ann Arbor Huron
39	10	Avery Scott	Portage Central
40	10	Mary Dolbow	Holland West Ottawa
41	12	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood
42	10	Charlotte Jones	Rochester
43	12	Gracelin Martin	Greenville
44	10	Lucia Llanes	Ann Arbor Skyline
45	9	Giada Mills	Beverly Hills Groves
46	10	Gracie Carlisle	Portage Central
47	11	Chloe Purwin	Hudsonville
48	10	Madeline Aleisa	Jenison
49	12	Lilli Schlack	Saline
50	11	Ava Goodman	Hartland
51	9	Grace Meyers	Bay City Western
52	12	Juliet Lewis	Brighton
53	12	Emmie Clor	Romeo
54	9	Abigail Deering	Rochester Adams
55	11	Lyla Dowling	Holland West Ottawa
56	9	Lexie Snyder	Hudsonville
57	11	Lizzie Wernimont	Ann Arbor Pioneer
58	12	Abby Veit	Traverse City West
59	12	Leena Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron
60	10	Julia Bambach	Holly
61	9	Hailey Sieler	Forest Hills Central
62	11	Becca Van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline
63	9	Cecelia Jacobson	Traverse City Central
64	12	Audrey Hamilton	Troy
65	9	Audrey Grosteffon	Temperance Bedford
66	10	Caralyn Elkins	Zeeland West
67	12	Courtney Lince	Brighton
68	12	Mackenzie Dicken	Plymouth
69	12	Payton Lamb	Traverse City West
70	11	Nina Moore	Ann Arbor Pioneer
71	10	Alexandra Green	Birmingham Seaholm
72	11	Isla Tharp	Ann Arbor Skyline
73	11	Madeleine Hengeveld	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills
74	11	Maya Pletzer	White Lake Lakeland
75	10	Paige Rohda	Berkley
76	10	Jillian Lewakowski	Rockford
77	12	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven
78	10	Charley McKay	Woodhaven Brownstown
79	11	Reese Rosbolt	Romeo
80	12	Selena White	Brighton
81	10	Jaclyn Charbauski	Forest Hills Northern
82	12	Annabelle Beloiu	Northville
83	10	Lila Edison	Ann Arbor Skyline
84	11	Alice Foley	Fraser
85	10	Gabriella Mercier	Macomb Dakota
86	12	Willa Prinsen	Forest Hills Northern
87	10	Ruby Petee	Mason
88	12	Kierra Magner	Farmington
89	12	Samantha Langolf	Port Huron Northern
90	10	Adelynn Turck	Saline
91	12	Sophia Nunnery	Hartland
92	10	Jorga Wooledge	Mason
93	11	Katelyn Parrish	Farmington
94	10	Emily Truszkowski	Traverse City Central
95	9	Brynn Somers	Northville
96	9	Emma Storey	Jenison
97	12	Rianna Radulescu	Livonia Churchill
98	9	Laura Forsyth	Ann Arbor Pioneer
99	12	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota
100	10	Kelly Comfort	Traverse City Central

The girls All-State race is a bit more tightly wound than others on the day, with 50 girls in legitimate running for a chance to get on stage.

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

The boys’ field is a little older, but not by much. The same prediction stands. Before 2023 (Thomas Westphal and Seth Norder) and 2024 (Jack Bidwell and TJ Hansen), it was rare for two boys to drop under 15:00 in the same State Final race. In 2025, that possibility exists again. Both Beckett Crooks and Kamari Ronfeldt have done so in multiple races this year. There are candidates to join the two from all across the D1 landscape – Andrew Wright, Kyle O’Rourke, Jack MacGregor, Aiden Pengelly, Caden Livermore, amongst a few others.

Ronfeldt and Crooks are probably the favorites, each with legitimate arguments. Crooks has the racing savvy and winning experience, conquering this spring’s 3200m with a stunning final lap. Ronfeldt owns the fastest time of the season and the most impressive performance, his 14:50, 27-second romp over the Portage field during the hottest time of the day.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer
2	12	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer
3	11	Caden Livermore	Grandville
4	11	Jack MacGregor	Howell
5	12	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford
6	12	Ian Morgan	Okemos
7	11	Brandon Cloud	Northville
8	11	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven
9	11	Justin Johnson	East Kentwood
10	12	Aiden Pengelly	Canton
11	12	Benjamin Hartigan	Northville
12	12	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
13	11	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central
14	11	Marshall Huhn	Lowell
15	12	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central
16	11	Coen Hill	Dexter
17	12	David Dubeck	Clarkston
18	11	Austin Mercado	Salem
19	12	Lucas LaPointe	Plymouth
20	10	Todd Tobin	Highland-Milford
21	11	Matii Tarekegn	East Kentwood
22	12	Zach Wyderko	Brighton
23	9	Avi Elabed	Lowell
24	11	Jacob Szalay	Saline
25	9	Tommy McCormick	Grand Blanc
26	10	Mourad Algahmi	Dearborn Fordson
27	12	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central
28	10	Xavier Solgot	Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
29	12	Owen Fisher	Mattawan
30	12	Noah Johnston	Caledonia
31	12	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston
32	12	Max Houvener	Lake Orion
33	12	Thomas DeJesus	Ann Arbor Pioneer
34	12	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central
35	10	Rylen Richey	Grand Ledge
36	12	Nathaniel Linden	Troy Athens
37	11	Blake Kulesza	Brighton
38	12	Ethan Hertza	Northville
39	10	Alexander Allen	Alpena
40	11	Cameron Cochran	Midland
41	11	Broden Ladd	Holly
42	10	Brady Glon	Detroit Catholic Central
43	12	Cooper Byrne	Lowell
44	11	Logan Gessford	Midland
45	10	Bennett Snapper	Caledonia
46	12	Marcel Stork	Mattawan
47	12	Jack Steen	Traverse City Central
48	12	Dylan Pascoe	Rochester
49	12	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge
50	12	Evan Owczarek	Rochester
51	12	Pierce Scheffler	Woodhaven Brownstown
52	10	Karson Lewis	Battle Creek Lakeview
53	12	Liam Preisser	East Lansing
54	10	Nikhil Ball	South Lyon East
55	12	Aron Gal	Grand Haven
56	12	Hayden Murray	Traverse City West
57	12	Logan Bellinger	Midland
58	12	Hudson Wojtkowicz	Livonia Churchill
59	11	Trevor Baptist	Novi
60	12	Adrian Abbott-Wallace	Holt
61	12	Owen Perry	Romeo
62	12	Luke James	Midland
63	11	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West
64	10	Rem Piper	Holt
65	12	Brennan Larusso	Saline
66	11	Josiah Derksen	Rockford
67	12	Harper Wesley	Utica
68	12	Ryan Stojov	Northville
69	11	Bradley Smies	Hudsonville
70	12	Theo Sacks Thomas	Ann Arbor Pioneer
71	12	Finn Gammerath	Walled Lake Northern
72	11	Caelan Marsh	Grand Ledge
73	12	Andrew Worsley	Midland
74	10	Chase Sherman	Jenison
75	12	Gannon Wheeler	Highland-Milford
76	12	Gavin Wilkins	Rochester Adams
77	12	Jacob McDaniel	Grandville
78	12	Luke Allen	Romeo
79	12	Gavin Johns	White Lake Lakeland
80	10	Elliot King	Midland
81	11	Nolan Lounds	Grand Ledge
82	12	Nolan Wenglikowski	Jenison
83	10	Carter Cooke	Jenison
84	11	Matthew Guikema	Ann Arbor Skyline
85	12	Alex McKennon	Grand Ledge
86	10	Finn-Frost Grayson	Traverse City West
87	12	Noah Linstrom	Davison
88	12	Bruno Cifaldi	Ann Arbor Skyline
89	10	Roman Stilwell	Ann Arbor Skyline
90	10	Elijah Demlow	Battle Creek Lakeview
91	10	Oscar Wordell	Rochester Adams
92	12	Evan Cummings	Brighton
93	12	Alex Vazquez	Woodhaven Brownstown
94	10	Lucas Brumo	Livonia Stevenson
95	11	Noah Amori	Wyandotte Roosevelt
96	11	Jack Hanner	Salem
97	10	Martin Gehrke	Ann Arbor Skyline
98	12	Adrian Clarke	Plymouth
99	11	Samuel Batt	Salem
100	12	Gavin Tisch	Detroit Catholic Central

This D1 field is almost as high in variance as the D2 one – approximately 70 boys who could earn a medal.

I’m exhausted. Many of these posts are chart-driven, so I think of it like a scientific textbook. But over 500,000 words have made their way onto the site this year (track, summer, XC), which would add up to about a 2000 page book. The stories have been well-written. Let’s just get out there and race. See you tomorrow!