mixcspeedratings

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#4 Hillsdale Academy
#16 Pittsford

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

20th Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Hillsdale Academy	1.0	34	95+	95+
2	Pittsford	2.0	53		95+
3	Addison	3.0	77		95+
4	Adrian Lenawee Christian	4.0	89
5	Camden-Frontier	5.0	106

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Izzy Brooks	Adrian Lenawee Christian	1.0
2	12	Brooke Smith	Pittsford	2.1
3	11	Ella Walton	Hillsdale Academy	4.3
4	10	Ruth Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	4.8
5	11	Ava Mallar	Pittsford	5.1
6	11	Stephanie Hernandez	Addison	6.7
7	11	Riley McCumber	Pittsford	6.9
8	11	Caroline Roberts	Hillsdale Academy	8.9
9	10	Abby Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	9.2
10	11	Aubrey Appleman	Britton Deerfield	10.8
11	12	Leah Rorick	Morenci	11.3
12	9	Allie Miller	Hillsdale Academy	11.7
13	9	Grace Brownlee	Hillsdale Academy	12.0
14	9	Audrey Nehlsen	Hillsdale Academy	13.3
15	11	Priya Mericle	East Jackson	14.4
16	10	Emersyn Bachelder	Morenci	14.4
17	9	Lillian Jagielski	Pittsford	17.1
18	9	Kendalyn Perry	Addison	18.8
19	11	Taylor Lautermilch	Camden-Frontier	19.5
20	10	Grace Raymond	Petersburg-Summerfield	20.8
21	10	Ayla Hopkins	Camden-Frontier	21.8
22	9	Gigi Masters	Adrian Lenawee Christian	23.7
23	11	Allison Morris	Addison	24.7
24	12	Maggie Frost	Addison	25.2
25	12	Sayra Hernandez	Addison	25.3
26	12	Kariana Carpenter	Jackson Preparatory	25.8
27	11	Sophia Falater	Reading	25.8
28	12	Paige Santi	Reading	27.5
29	12	Faith Secor	Petersburg-Summerfield	27.8
30	11	Averil Miller	Camden-Frontier	28.7

Any Intriguing Battles?

The top three teams seem set, but I might look to what Izzy Brooks can throw down or how Hillsdale Academy’s pack appears. The Colts have seven solid girls that could play a role next week. Izzy had a nice rebound from the Lenawee County race, winning the Class D meet at Shepherd in 19:16. With its gradual downhills, Jackson can run fast. If she goes for it, I wouldn’t be shocked to see another low-19 (or faster) performance.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

Boys

#1 Hillsdale Academy
#16 East Jackson
#25 Adrian Lenawee Christian

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

20th Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Hillsdale Academy	1.0	27	95+	95+
2	East Jackson	2.1	78		95+
3	Adrian Lenawee Christian	3.3	94		74
4	Morenci	4.0	100		25
5	Jackson Preparatory	4.7	108
6	Britton Deerfield	6.4	173
7	Reading	6.6	177
8	Vandercook Lake	8.0	204
9	Addison	9.0	229

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Thomas Holm	Hillsdale Academy	1.0
2	12	Michael Allen	East Jackson	2.4
3	10	Grayson Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	2.7
4	11	Reece Poole	Hillsdale Academy	4.4
5	12	Javin Mericle	East Jackson	4.6
6	11	Joel Lange	Adrian Lenawee Christian	6.9
7	12	Nathan Daniels	Adrian Lenawee Christian	8.4
8	10	Henry Lindley	Hillsdale Academy	9.1
9	12	William Kennedy	East Jackson	9.9
10	9	Landon Wilkins	Morenci	11.2
11	11	Beau Shaffer	Morenci	11.3
12	9	Ryan Miller	Hillsdale Academy	11.4
13	10	James Rahe	Hillsdale Academy	11.7
14	12	Karol Schlueter	Hillsdale Academy	13.7
15	11	Zachary Martinez	Morenci	14.9
16	11	Jameson Watson	Britton Deerfield	16.3
17	12	Noah Blondke	Jackson Preparatory	17.3
18	12	Nathan Blondke	Jackson Preparatory	18.5
19	11	Diego BoCole	Jackson Preparatory	20.4
20	12	Kutter Vanaken	Reading	20.7
21	10	Dallas Swaenepoel	Vandercook Lake	21.1
22	11	Kaleb Richardson	Adrian Lenawee Christian	23.2
23	10	Pierson Cousino	Adrian Lenawee Christian	23.7
24	10	Corey Dubnicki	Jackson Preparatory	25.4
25	9	Noah Lucas	Addison	26.0
26	11	Ryan Good	Britton Deerfield	28.1
27	10	Brayden Wright	Reading	30.5
28	11	Logan Mishaw	Jackson Preparatory	30.7
29	12	Colton Raffensberger	East Jackson	30.9
30	12	Randy Reddick	East Jackson	31.7

Any Intriguing Battles?

These last few weeks, we’ve got a few examples of the impending Adrian Lenawee Christian vs. Morenci matchup on the boys side. Lenawee Christian took the first two battles at the TCC Final and the Lenawee County Championship, while Morenci came through up at Class D this past weekend. Beau Schaffer easily had his best effort of the year, coming in before any ALC athlete. Could that be enough to lead the Bulldogs into the 3^rd spot?

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#1 Jackson Lumen Christi
#13 Hanover-Horton
#23 Onsted

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

20th Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	1.0	28	95+	95+
2	Hanover-Horton	2.0	70		95+
3	Onsted	3.0	99		95+
4	Hudson	4.4	142
5	Quincy	4.7	145
6	Bronson	6.3	172
7	Napoleon	6.6	175
8	Jonesville	8.3	214
9	Hillsdale	9.2	232
10	Homer	9.5	238
11	Sand Creek	11.2	277
12	Michigan Center	11.8	293

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Madison Osterberg	Jackson Lumen Christi	1.1
2	11	Emmry Ross	Onsted	1.9
3	9	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	3.1
4	12	Olivia Perrine	Hanover-Horton	4.8
5	10	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	5.8
6	10	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	7.1
7	12	Sophia Reynolds	Hanover-Horton	7.7
8	11	Chloe Stalhood	Hillsdale	8.4
9	11	Layla Lopez	Jackson Lumen Christi	8.8
10	11	Ava Hathaway	Bronson	9.0
11	12	Sydney Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	9.7
12	11	Thia Tello	Jackson Lumen Christi	12.2
13	9	Kendyl Musielewiez	Quincy	13.1
14	12	Julianna Debozy-Crawford	Hanover-Horton	15.5
15	11	Jayla Bright	Hudson	16.6
16	9	Brynlee Swihart	Hanover-Horton	17.0
17	10	Brookelyn Parker	Quincy	17.4
18	11	Allie England	Onsted	17.6
19	10	Raegan Brosamer	Onsted	17.9
20	11	Karly Page	Jonesville	19.7
21	10	Annabelle Czeiszperger	Hudson	22.9
22	12	Sadie Miller	Quincy	23.5
23	10	Sophie Patrick	Homer	24.3
24	11	Lauren McLain	Napoleon	24.7
25	12	Lily Mason	Hanover-Horton	25.6
26	11	Mia Sanchez	Jackson Lumen Christi	26.6
27	10	Makenzy Lindemann	Napoleon	27.5
28	12	Madelyn Norman	Napoleon	28.7
29	9	Izabel Raglow	Onsted	28.8
30	11	Pierce Pibbles	Hudson	31.3

Any Intriguing Battles?

Not especially, as the top three girls teams appear to be heavy favorites to make it out. This region benefitted from the loss of Leslie, a school in the vicinity of Jackson that moved to Region 26. This opened the door for teams such as Onsted and Hanover-Horton to have a greater chance at qualifying.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#4 Hanover-Horton
#8 Jonesville
#9 Jackson Lumen Christi

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

18th Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Hanover-Horton	1.1	53	93	95+
2	Jonesville	2.4	71	7	95+
3	Jackson Lumen Christi	2.5	73		95+
4	Hillsdale	4.2	152
5	Brooklyn Columbia Central	5.9	177
6	Hudson	6.0	178
7	Onsted	7.8	196
8	Adrian Madison	7.9	197
9	Bronson	8.1	199
10	Homer	9.5	214
11	Napoleon	11.2	239
12	Sand Creek	11.4	240
13	Michigan Center	13.0	349
14	Quincy	14.0	405

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Isaiah Dinverno	Jackson Lumen Christi	1.1
2	11	Mitchell Hiatt	Onsted	2.1
3	11	Landen Boulis	Hanover-Horton	4.3
4	12	Evan Shepherd	Hanover-Horton	4.6
5	12	Gavin VanKampen	Jonesville	5.2
6	12	Nolan Grant	Hillsdale	6.1
7	12	Gannon Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	6.9
8	9	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	7.3
9	12	Alex Czeiszperger	Hudson	9.3
10	10	Zach Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	11.4
11	10	John Edler	Homer	11.4
12	10	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	14.0
13	10	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville	14.7
14	12	Owen Brown	Hanover-Horton	14.8
15	9	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale	15.4
16	12	Kyler Pequet	Napoleon	16.3
17	9	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton	18.3
18	11	Jack Gorton	Brooklyn Columbia Central	19.9
19	10	Trenton Fetter	Adrian Madison	19.9
20	11	Isaac St. John	Hudson	20.5
21	12	David Fowler	Jonesville	21.9
22	9	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi	22.0
23	9	Silas Daniels	Sand Creek	24.9
24	9	Collin Fucile	Jonesville	25.2
25	10	Paul McClure	Adrian Madison	25.9
26	10	Wyatt Vowell	Brooklyn Columbia Central	26.7
27	11	James Bayes	Onsted	27.0
28		Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi	29.4
29	12	Caleb Dickinson	Homer	30.3
30	11	Owen Lambarth	Brooklyn Columbia Central	30.8

Any Intriguing Battles?

Another thing to add to the list of Michigan XC Maxims (St. Louis comes through at the end of the year, watch out for Pinckney at Portage, always believe in Sal’s Magic) is to always count on Hanover-Horton. Ranked outside the top-10 to begin the year, the Comets have been a steady presence in the upper echelon of the D3 rankings.But beware, Jonesville is living up to those rankings, winning the Cascades Conference thanks to a huge performance from David Fowler. Lingering a bit behind the two were the Lumen Christi boys, but I always feel like the LC teams live on the Sharp Park course.

Uncategorized

2023 Regional Projections: Shepherd Regional

October 24, 2023October 24, 2023 mixcspeedratings

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#7 Caro
#10 Ithaca
#22 St. Louis

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15th Place

Projected Place	Girls Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Caro	1.2	48	76	95+
2	Ithaca	1.8	56	24	95+
3	St. Louis	3.0	100		95+
4	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	4.6	138
5	Sanford-Meridian	5.2	147
6	Pigeon-Laker	6.1	156
7	Midland Bullock Creek	6.3	159
8	Cass City	8.2	186
9	Pinconning	8.7	202
10	Millington	10.1	263
11	Bad Axe	10.9	293
12	Carrollton	12.0	364

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jenna Sweeney	Reese	1.9
2	11	Kaya Vrable	Caro	3.0
3	12	Liliana Lehnst	Ithaca	3.1
4	12	Jaiden Dickman	St. Louis	3.8
5	12	Kinsie Jacques	Pinconning	4.6
6	12	Paige Herron	Caro	6.3
7	10	Myleigh Hephner	Ithaca	8.0
8	12	Claire Neumann	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	8.4
9	10	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek	8.9
10	9	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	9.1
11	9	Pyper Braun	Pigeon-Laker	11.2
12	12	Faith Swenor	Caro	13.3
13	12	Rachael Walch	Caro	14.0
14	11	Maddie Huysentruyt	Sandusky	15.1
15	9	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian	15.2
16	10	Alexis Fabbro	Vassar	17.5
17	12	Alexa Long	Caro	17.9
18	11	Abby Dice	St. Louis	18.7
19	9	Olivia Hooper	Pigeon-Laker	19.5
20	10	Carla Cortes	Cass City	23.5
21	10	Aubrey Zarnke	Pigeon-Laker	24.7
22	10	Braylee Rice	Reese	25.1
23	10	Emma Dawe	Ithaca	26.6
24	12	Emma Haynes	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	26.9
25	10	Izabelle LaLone	Ithaca	26.9
26	11	Autumn Fransen	Midland Bullock Creek	28.2
27	9	Lilly Mann	St. Louis	28.6
28	12	Natalie Lemert	St. Louis	28.8
29	9	Haley Fitzgibbon	Sanford-Meridian	28.9
30	10	Emma Fisher	Reese	30.5

Any Intriguing Battles?

Caro and Ithaca for the championship. The Yellowjackets have been coming on strong lately, placing 4^th in the TVC Overall Meet, their top-5 all hitting a season or personal best. The teams have only matched up once – early in the season here at John Bruder, where Caro was ahead by nearly 100 points, the majority of those points coming from the 4^th and 5^th spots. These projections show a bit closer gap for their 4^th spot, but still a considerable one at 5.

(And you might be wondering why each of their 1^st girls are projected to be 2^nd. Essentially, Vrable and Lehnst are inseparable and since these are based off simulations of many races, both of their average finishing places in the team race are near 2^nd)

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#11 St. Louis
#13 Ithaca
#15 Midland Bullock Creek

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15th Place

Projected Place	Boys Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	St. Louis	1.1	58	89	95+
2	Ithaca	2.1	72	8	95+
3	Midland Bullock Creek	2.8	84		95+
4	Sanford-Meridian	4.4	118
5	Pigeon-Laker	4.8	125
6	Caro	5.8	139
7	Reese	7.0	174
8	Otisville LakeVille	8.0	210
9	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	9.1	248
10	Hemlock	10.7	280
11	Cass City	11.0	284
12	Vassar	11.3	286
13	Millington	12.9	304
14	Carrollton	14.0	363

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ben March	St. Louis	1.2
2	11	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis	2.3
3	10	Landen Styka	Ithaca	3.4
4	11	Tyler Heal	Sanford-Meridian	4.0
5	12	Bailey Wiggins	Midland Bullock Creek	7.1
6	12	Matthew Pattullo	Caro	7.3
7	11	Brayden Sweeney	Midland Bullock Creek	7.7
8	11	Cade Truemner	Pigeon-Laker	8.5
9	11	Miingen Bertrand	Ithaca	8.9
10	9	Luke Herron	Caro	9.0
11	10	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille	9.7
12	10	Jacob Mankey	Ithaca	14.8
13	9	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker	16.0
14	11	Jacob Moore	Caro	16.2
15	12	Elliot Noyes	Sanford-Meridian	16.5
16	10	Duane Davis	Midland Bullock Creek	17.6
17	10	Hayden Shattuck	St. Louis	17.9
18	10	Alex Rodriguez	St. Louis	17.9
19	11	Colin Kuhn	St. Louis	19.1
20	10	Jayden Fox	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	20.7
21	11	Brent DeSaegher	Ithaca	21.7
22	11	Connor Kennedy	Otisville LakeVille	22.5
23	12	Marc Woods	Midland Bullock Creek	23.3
24	10	Logan Brawt	Sanford-Meridian	23.7
25	10	Thad Whitmore	Ithaca	24.0
26	12	Matthew Johnston	Hemlock	26.2
27	12	Konnor Olson	Pigeon-Laker	26.9
28	9	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek	29.3
29	9	Robby Samborn	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	29.4
30	10	Wesley Haines	Reese	30.7

Any Intriguing Battles?

St. Louis vs. Ithaca for the top spot. Although the Sharks have taken all of the matchups in league competition this year, the 2^nd TVC Jamboree shows a pathway to a Yellowjacket victory. In late September, Ithaca put five guys in front of St. Louis’s 4^th, coming within 4 points of the Sharks. Though the firepower from March and Pestrue up front may be too much of a gap to come back from.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#3 Goodrich
#7 Frankenmuth
#13 Freeland
#19 Alma

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21st Place… but top-15 is automatic

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Goodrich	1.0	43	95+	95+
2	Frankenmuth	2.1	64		95+
3	Freeland	3.0	80		95+
4	Alma	4.0	97
5	Shepherd	5.3	192
6	Flint Powers Catholic	6.2	206
7	Flint Kearsley	6.7	217
8	Saginaw Swan Valley	8.0	245
9	Clio	9.7	284
10	Birch Run	10.5	295
11	Imlay City	11.2	304
12	Essexville-Garber	12.0	315
13	Ortonville Brandon	12.5	318
14	North Branch	13.2	326
15	Bay City John Glenn	14.7	361

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Mary Richmond	Frankenmuth	1.4
2	11	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich	2.4
3	11	Ezgi Kurt	Alma	3.4
4	9	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	4.5
5	10	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	5.9
6	11	Layla Jordan	Goodrich	6.3
7	10	Samantha Brown	Clio	6.6
8	9	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	8.2
9	9	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	8.9
10	9	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	9.4
11	11	Joy Evans	Alma	10.7
12	9	Claire Brown	Goodrich	12.9
13	11	Karie Keefer	Freeland	13.5
14	11	Avery Byrne	Goodrich	14.2
15	10	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth	18.4
16	10	Jada Prescott	Freeland	18.8
17	9	Grace Mahaffy	Goodrich	18.9
18	9	Molly Gaudard	Flint Kearsley	19.3
19	9	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	19.6
20	11	Grace Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	19.9
21	12	Ava Boggs	Flint Kearsley	20.7
22	11	Landrey Kuhn	Freeland	20.8
23	12	Paige Kloha	Freeland	22.4
24	9	Alexa Palmer	Alma	24.8
25	12	Hannah Raglin	Alma	26.0
26	11	Reese Beery	Saginaw Swan Valley	26.8
27	11	Heather Brownlee	Essexville-Garber	31.6
28	12	Madison Gimmey	Shepherd	31.9
29	11	Vivian Wickes	Alma	33.4
30	10	Sophia Ciesla	Essexville-Garber	34.2

Any Intriguing Battles?

Me vs. the site selection committee. No one really responded to my lengthy writeup over the summer. I really wish there was more transparency and communication as to why teams have to travel 1.5+ hours to regionals when there’s one right down the street.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#6 Alma
#13 Frankenmuth
#17 Flint Powers Catholic
#23 Clio
#25 Flint Kearsley

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15th Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Alma	1.0	65	95+	95+
2	Frankenmuth	2.2	88		95+
3	Flint Powers Catholic	2.9	100		87
4	Clio	4.0	117		14
5	Flint Kearsley	5.5	136
6	Shepherd	5.9	139
7	Freeland	6.5	147
8	Saginaw Swan Valley	8.1	207
9	Goodrich	8.9	230
10	Birch Run	10.1	264
11	Ortonville Brandon	10.9	282
12	Bay City Central	12.0	316
13	Imlay City	13.0	371
14	North Branch	14.0	398
15	Bay City John Glenn	15.0	434

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	TJ Hansen	Freeland	1.0
2	12	Elliott Sirianni	Clio	2.6
3	10	Thomas Larson	Alma	3.4
4	9	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	4.6
5	12	David Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	6.1
6	9	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	6.5
7	11	Nolan Longuski	Shepherd	7.3
8	12	Andrew Yax	Clio	8.1
9	10	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	8.8
10	11	Landen Wise	Frankenmuth	11.0
11	12	Ali Kudmani	Alma	12.2
12	10	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	12.4
13	11	Jack Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley	12.6
14	10	Murphy Wagner	Saginaw Swan Valley	14.1
15	11	Cougar Clark	Frankenmuth	15.9
16	11	Owen Fennelly	Saginaw Swan Valley	16.3
17	10	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	16.4
18	10	Anthony Plana	Frankenmuth	16.5
19	12	Peter Huey	Flint Powers Catholic	20.2
20	11	Ethan Sellers	Flint Kearsley	21.0
21	11	Camden McLeod	Freeland	21.2
22	10	Elijah Baltierra	Alma	21.6
23	11	Bodie Heiss	Alma	23.6
24	10	Ian McNeel	Shepherd	27.8
25	12	Jack Rumptz	Birch Run	27.8
26	12	Alex Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley	28.1
27	12	Evan Yax	Clio	28.8
28	12	Keiran Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	29.4
29	10	Cole Fernandez	Flint Kearsley	31.2
30	11	Sam Nemeth	Freeland	31.9

Any Intriguing Battles?

Flint Powers Catholic vs. Clio for the third team qualifier. Despite being 20 miles apart from one another, the two aren’t in the same league nor did they lock heads at Greater Flint. The most recent matchup was at Shepherd, which had a similar result to the what the projections project. Clio is strong up front, led by Sirianni and Yax, while Powers gains an advantage at their 3^rd – 5^th finishers. The factor, as always in cross country scoring, is one of gaps and bubbles. Will there be a large enough gap at the front to mitigate Powers toward the middle of the pack?

SUMMER
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#8 Okemos
#9 Traverse City West
#22 Traverse City Central

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

21st Place, but as always, top-15 is guaranteed

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Okemos	1.3	52	75	95+
2	Traverse City West	1.8	61	25	95+
3	Traverse City Central	3.4	111		59
4	Bay City Western	3.6	114		41
5	H.H. Dow	5.1	159
6	Grand Ledge	6.5	190
7	Holt	7.4	203
8	Alpena	7.6	205
9	Midland	8.4	218
10	Mt. Pleasant	10.5	270
11	East Lansing	11.2	280
12	Greenville	11.7	291
13	Saginaw Heritage	12.7	319
14	Lansing Everett	14.0	467

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Katie Watkins	H.H. Dow	1.3
2	12	Shannon Gillahan	Okemos	2.7
3	11	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	4.6
4	12	Ella Kirkwood	Traverse City Central	5.7
5	11	Lauren Walker	Holt	6.1
6	9	Gabriella Fugazzi	Okemos	6.7
7	10	Abby Veit	Traverse City West	7.7
8	12	Ava King	Traverse City West	8.8
9	12	Alexis Ball	Traverse City Central	9.3
10	9	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West	12.3
11	10	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge	14.2
12	12	Lily Salazar	Okemos	14.6
13	10	October Harns	Okemos	15.7
14	12	Nicole Mays	Okemos	15.9
15	10	Reese Smith	Traverse City West	16.0
16	9	Jaclyn Suderman	Bay City Western	17.0
17	11	Sydney Roberts	H.H. Dow	17.2
18	10	Elizabeth Schafer	Okemos	18.0
19	11	Alyssa Fouchey	Traverse City West	20.1
20	10	Payton Lamb	Traverse City West	20.8
21	10	Lydia Jagger	Grand Ledge	21.6
22	11	Ella Reaves	Holt	22.0
23	11	Abby Minnick	East Lansing	22.2
24	10	Gracelin Martin	Greenville	22.4
25	10	Peyton Tucker	Traverse City West	22.9
26	12	Bryna Mead-O’Brien	Okemos	25.4
27	12	Emma Dickins	Alpena	26.4
28	10	Sienna Cobb	Traverse City Central	27.4
29	12	Samantha Zolnierek	Alpena	29.4
30	10	Madison Aten	Grand Ledge	30.1

Any Intriguing Battles?

Okemos vs. Traverse City West for the regional championship. Two teams that get it done in largely the same manner, strong packs with a ton of depth. I can see both teams outperforming their state projections given their strength through all varsity runners. Last year it was the Chiefs who were able to place all five scorers in the top-21 en route to a victory.

Traverse City Central vs. Bay City Western for the final qualifying spot. Two teams with tons of tradition and experienced coaches to have their runners performing their best come late October. Last year, it was Traverse City Central. At Portage, the two teams finished a spot away from one another.

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#17 Bay City Western
#19 Traverse City Central
#27 Traverse City West

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15th Place

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Place	Avg. Score	Win %	Qualify %
1	Traverse City Central	1.4	62	67	95+
2	Bay City Western	1.7	70	32	95+
3	Traverse City West	3.4	103		58
4	Okemos	3.5	107		44
5	Saginaw Heritage	5.8	161
6	Midland	6.0	161
7	East Lansing	7.4	179
8	Grand Ledge	7.5	181
9	H.H. Dow	8.4	190
10	Alpena	10.0	247
11	Mt. Pleasant	11.0	298
12	Greenville	12.0	334
13	Holt	13.0	382
14	Lansing Everett	14.0	447

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Noah Selvaraj	Bay City Western	1.0
2	12	Willem DeGood	Traverse City West	3.1
3	12	Zack Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	3.2
4	12	Colin MacGregor	H.H. Dow	5.9
5	10	John Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	6.0
6	10	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central	6.0
7	10	Ian Morgan	Okemos	7.1
8	9	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West	9.8
9	10	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge	10.0
10	12	Kenny Lewis	Saginaw Heritage	10.3
11	11	Andrew Kaczmarczyk	Bay City Western	10.6
12	12	Michael Cyrul	East Lansing	11.8
13	12	Miles Killips	Bay City Western	14.9
14	9	Luke Byland	Traverse City Central	16.1
15	10	Preston VanOeffelen	Greenville	16.6
16	11	Ian Boss	Traverse City Central	17.8
17	12	Eden Lampi	East Lansing	19.4
18	12	Sam King	Traverse City West	20.1
19	11	Nathan Wilkinson	Okemos	21.2
20	11	Logan Grills	Bay City Western	21.4
21	11	Logan Gehoski	Bay City Western	22.4
22	10	Andrew Worsley	Midland	23.8
23	12	Jon Kurowski	Alpena	24.9
24	11	Nathan Beemer	Okemos	26.4
25	12	Logan Northrop	Mt. Pleasant	26.8
26	12	Mateo Reyes	Midland	26.9
27	10	Ben Irwin	Traverse City West	27.3
28	10	Malcolm Cesario	Okemos	28.7
29	12	Alex Morey	Traverse City Central	28.9
30	12	Alex Durocher	Traverse City Central	29.0

Any Intriguing Battles?

Flip the script from the girls, keep the same teams.

Traverse City Central vs. Bay City Western for the boys win. BCW always, and I mean ALWAYS outperforms these projections. They’re experienced up front and have great memories here, last year coming together for an upset to grab the third spot. TC Central is quite a bit younger, but led by the steady Zach Truszkowski up front. At Portage, BCW put their 5^th and 6^th boys ahead of TCC’s 5^th, with a 30 second gap between their final scorers. A big difference there and perhaps enough here even in a smaller field.

Traverse City West vs. Okemos boys for the third spot. Once again, we can look to Portage, where Okemos was able to throw four guys under 17:00. Their 5^th and 6^th runners were in the mid-17’s, but both had a significant gap over TCW’s 5^th. It all depends where runners are concentrated. If a huge percentage of the field comes in between 17:00 and 17:20, TCW might have enough firepower up front. 17:20 and 17:45, Okemos’ depth reigns supreme. Guess we’ll find out Friday…

Uncategorized

2023 Rankings: Regional Week

October 23, 2023October 23, 2023 mixcspeedratings

Okay, I sorta lied when I let you all know that last week would be the final week of rankings. Over the weekend, it dawned on me that knowing a team’s rank will be essential while reviewing and penning these Regional Projections. As I just wanted to get this out early, these are very simple, cutting out all of the writing and other charts. So here you are, one final batch of rankings.

If you’ve followed these over the past few years, you may know the gist of these, but let’s break it down once again:

The individual ratings take into account all the meets listed here. There are a few meets missing that I’ll link to, but pretty much any meet with a significant number of athletes will have been calculated. An individual’s rating takes their best 75% of rated races (rounding up, so 4 of 5, 5 of 6, etc.), weighs them with more recent races having a higher weight, then spits out a final rating. The team rankings score those individuals as if they were in a meet against their entire division.

As a result of taking into the entire season into account, the rankings will be more conservative and less reactionary than most. Putting together a great performance once will bring about a tiny bit of movement, doing so repeatedly will elicit much greater change.

Unfortunately, the injury rule is in place, where if I don’t have a rating from the past month, that runner is taken out. If you’re willing to share (and I can understand why not – someone’s medical situation doesn’t have to be the public’s business) that your athlete or you yourself are healthy/injured, feel free. There are some exceptions based on situations that make sense. Hopefully these don’t rub salt in the wound of someone who’s already hurting.

Now I need to be serious for a minute. These are for fun. If you don’t like these fun rankings, you don’t need to participate, you don’t need to call me names, talk trash to your fellow competitors, or send rude emails. We good here? Enjoy.

Rank	Girls Team	Region	Score
1	Whitmore Lake	33	106
2	Johannesburg-Lewiston	28	130
3	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	31	147
4	Hillsdale Academy	34	282
5	Harbor Springs	28	289
6	Gobles	31	297
7	Saugatuck	31	305
8	Kingston	35	329
9	Buckley	29	331
10	Breckenridge	30	340
11	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	36	434
12	Grand Traverse Academy	29	448
13	Mason County Eastern	29	522
14	Novi Christian Academy	33	564
15	Concord	32	568
16	Pittsford	34	583
17	Kalamazoo Hackett	32	600
18	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	30	624
19	Royal Oak Shrine	36	630
20	Unionville-Sebewaing	35	632
21	Lansing Christian	33	637
22	Allen Park Cabrini	36	680
23	Ubly	35	753
24	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	31	779
25	Fowler	33	781
26	Leland	29	814
27	Livingston Christian	33	838

Rank	Boys Team	Region	Score
1	Hillsdale Academy	34	200
2	Johannesburg-Lewiston	28	263
3	Saugatuck	31	281
4	Holland Calvary Christian	31	339
5	Mason County Eastern	29	353
6	Three Oaks River Valley	32	365
7	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	31	375
8	Kalamazoo Hackett	32	409
9	Harbor Springs	28	445
10	Harbor Beach	35	568
11	Maple City Glen Lake	29	600
12	White Cloud	30	632
13	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	36	636
14	Royal Oak Shrine	36	645
15	Breckenridge	30	668
16	East Jackson	34	681
17	Lutheran Westland	36	683
18	Tri-Unity Christian	31	689
19	Frankfort	29	691
20	Petoskey St. Michael	28	716
21	Muskegon Catholic Central	31	737
22	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	36	752
23	Whitmore Lake	33	809
24	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	30	819
25	Adrian Lenawee Christian	34	831
26	Battle Creek St. Philip	32	853
27	Pentwater	29	890

Rank	Girls Team	Region	Score
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	23	146
2	Traverse City St. Francis	19	178
3	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	21	259
4	Pewamo-Westphalia	24	273
5	Elk Rapids	19	291
6	Stanton Central Montcalm	24	340
7	Caro	25	348
8	Lansing Catholic	26	395
9	Hart	20	428
10	Ithaca	25	451
11	Leslie	26	467
12	Remus Chippewa Hills	20	492
13	Hanover-Horton	23	505
14	Monroe St. Mary CC	27	545
15	Clinton	27	573
16	Kent City	21	609
17	Fennville	21	678
18	Buchanan	22	722
19	Grass Lake	27	725
20	Ann Arbor Greenhills	27	752
21	McBain	20	763
22	St. Louis	25	794
23	Onsted	23	813
24	Blissfield	27	816
25	Grandville Calvin Christian	21	844
26	Benzie Central	20	867
27	Bridgman	22	878

Rank	Boys Team	Region	Score
1	Traverse City St. Francis	19	167
2	Pewamo-Westphalia	24	296
3	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	21	312
4	Hanover-Horton	23	347
5	Reed City	20	347
6	Stanton Central Montcalm	24	440
7	The Potter’s House	21	454
8	Jonesville	23	473
9	Jackson Lumen Christi	23	479
10	Clare	19	480
11	St. Louis	25	480
12	Hart	20	481
13	Ithaca	25	578
14	Bath	24	588
15	Midland Bullock Creek	25	650
16	Charlevoix	19	672
17	Buchanan	22	681
18	Flat Rock	27	727
19	Kalkaska	19	784
20	Clinton	27	822
21	Leslie	26	829
22	Olivet	22	831
23	Ann Arbor Greenhills	27	851
24	Holland Black River	21	858
25	Lansing Catholic	26	899
26	Elk Rapids	19	932
27	Benzie Central	20	963

Rank	Girls Team	Region	Score
1	Grand Rapids Christian	11	68
2	Otsego	13	210
3	Goodrich	15	269
4	East Grand Rapids	12	324
5	Zeeland East	11	361
6	Spring Lake	11	423
7	Frankenmuth	15	465
8	Holland Christian	11	466
9	DeWitt	14	474
10	St. Joseph	13	482
11	St. Johns	14	499
12	Ludington	10	545
13	Freeland	15	556
14	Hudsonville Unity Christian	11	618
15	Owosso	14	643
16	Linden	16	670
17	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	12	685
18	Dearborn Divine Child	16	705
19	Alma	15	726
20	Petoskey	10	732
21	Forest Hills Eastern	12	764
22	Croswell-Lexington	17	826
23	Chelsea	18	847
24	Grand Rapids South Christian	12	851
25	Warren Regina	17	870
26	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	16	947
27	Armada	17	997

Rank	Boys Team	Region	Score
1	Forest Hills Eastern	12	187
2	Allendale	11	230
3	Grand Rapids Christian	11	259
4	East Grand Rapids	12	276
5	Pinckney	16	322
6	Alma	15	421
7	Adrian	18	448
8	Marshall	12	485
9	Otsego	13	491
10	Petoskey	10	503
11	Holland Christian	11	544
12	Gladwin	10	558
13	Frankenmuth	15	576
14	Sparta	10	600
15	Spring Lake	11	621
16	Plainwell	13	622
17	Flint Powers Catholic	15	628
18	Fremont	10	717
19	Yale	17	740
20	Hamilton	11	748
21	St. Clair	17	786
22	Chelsea	18	790
23	Clio	15	807
24	Parma Western	14	855
25	Flint Kearsley	15	938
26	St. Johns	14	946
27	DeWitt	14	960

Rank	Girls Team	Region	Score
1	Romeo	9	75
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	5	171
3	Brighton	4	247
4	Holland West Ottawa	1	291
5	Grand Haven	1	360
6	Northville	6	383
7	Saline	5	384
8	Okemos	2	385
9	Traverse City West	2	443
10	Forest Hills Central	3	469
11	Oxford	8	520
12	Rockford	1	521
13	Ann Arbor Skyline	4	570
14	Macomb Dakota	9	668
15	Davison	4	669
16	Fraser	9	681
17	Clarkston	8	723
18	Utica	8	732
19	White Lake Lakeland	7	735
20	Dexter	4	808
21	Jenison	1	814
22	Traverse City Central	2	852
23	Rochester	8	868
24	Walled Lake Northern	7	879
25	Livonia Franklin	6	911
26	Lake Orion	8	925
27	Zeeland West	1	985

Rank	Boys Team	Region	Score
1	Northville	6	211
2	Brighton	4	212
3	Grand Haven	1	295
4	Canton	6	339
5	Ann Arbor Pioneer	5	340
6	Kalamazoo Central	3	403
7	Oxford	8	434
8	Romeo	9	494
9	Troy	8	512
10	Forest Hills Central	3	515
11	Jenison	1	519
12	White Lake Lakeland	7	524
13	Walled Lake Northern	7	546
14	Macomb Dakota	9	551
15	Livonia Churchill	6	579
16	Clarkston	8	619
17	Bay City Western	2	661
18	Utica	8	663
19	Traverse City Central	2	665
20	Saline	5	685
21	Portage Central	3	703
22	Zeeland West	1	715
23	East Kentwood	3	776
24	Plymouth	6	787
25	Anchor Bay	9	831
26	Lake Orion	8	847
27	Traverse City West	2	918

Author: mixcspeedratings

2023 Regional Projections: Sharp Park Regional

GIRLS

BOYS

GIRLS

BOYS

2023 Regional Projections: Shepherd Regional

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GIRLS

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GIRLS

BOYS

2023 Rankings: Regional Week