The above infographs are from last season. I’ll make some new ones with updated stats for 2023.
With the early season ratings, a couple of notes:
Elite, more experienced runners will always be a bit overrated early. They tend to come into the season in better shape relative to the rest of the field, and thus are closer to their championship season fitness compared to someone newer to the sport.
With smaller meets, they’re not as accurate as they may be later in the year. Smaller samples and less ability to compare makes it hard to come up with an adjustment. Which explains why I’ll concentrate on the larger ones early, then work my way back toward the smaller ones.
Adversity tends to have a greater impact early. Whether that’s heat, hills, humidity, or even all three, those less fit will tend to struggle a bit more early, possibly overcooking the course adjustment.
The girls adjustment will typically be a bit more, as they’re spending more time on the course.
These will get weighed less and less as the season rolls on, meaning virtually nothing come October. As a coach, I’d stress not losing sleep over early season times. On here, I’m stressing the same thing.
The above infographs are from last season. I’ll make some new ones with updated stats for 2023.
With the early season ratings, a couple of notes:
Elite, more experienced runners will always be a bit overrated early. They tend to come into the season in better shape relative to the rest of the field, and thus are closer to their championship season fitness compared to someone newer to the sport.
With smaller meets, they’re not as accurate as they may be later in the year. Smaller samples and less ability to compare makes it hard to come up with an adjustment. Which explains why I’ll concentrate on the larger ones early, then work my way back toward the smaller ones.
Adversity tends to have a greater impact early. Whether that’s heat, hills, humidity, or even all three, those less fit will tend to struggle a bit more early, possibly overcooking the course adjustment.
The girls adjustment will typically be a bit more, as they’re spending more time on the course.
These will get weighed less and less as the season rolls on, meaning virtually nothing come October. As a coach, I’d stress not losing sleep over early season times. On here, I’m stressing the same thing.
Girls Adjustment: -11 Boys Adjustment: -11
As always, these writeups below will shoutout someone or a team that stood out from the race. That may not be the best runner or the winning team. Perhaps a team that surprised, a runner breaking through, or a runner contributing to a team victory. Of course, if you come to me nicely and want to brag about a fellow team/competitor/teammate, let me know, and I’ll try to give them love further down the line.
ENORMOUS EFFORTS AT EASTWOOD
Armada’s Girls
This northern Macomb squad bested a field full of Division 1 teams. Four of the Tigers’ top seven ran personal bests. One of those was Ava Baltierra, who found her way in the 20’s for the first time ever and opened her senior campaign almost 2.5 minutes faster than where she opened her junior season.
Braxton Sipes, Royal Oak
A far cry from the kid who was over 20:00 for his entire freshman year. Has had breakthroughs in his final races in each of the past two years, both at the State Finals and at MITCA, reaching the low-17’s. After a similar effort on the woodchips at Clawson, busted out a career-best 16:43 here at Eastwood. Along with Nolan Till and Sebas, this gives the Ravens a solid top-3. Is it enough to break the top-3 in Region 7? Maybe not, but they’re definitely a candidate to move up from their projected 5th spot.
You may have thought, “where did the ol’ Speed Ratings guy go?'” Well, after a few days off, I’m baaack.
The above infographs are from last season. I’ll make some new ones with updated stats for 2023.
With the early season ratings, a couple of notes:
Elite, more experienced runners will always be a bit overrated early. They tend to come into the season in better shape relative to the rest of the field, and thus are closer to their championship season fitness compared to someone newer to the sport.
With smaller meets, they’re not as accurate as they may be later in the year. Smaller samples and less ability to compare makes it hard to come up with an adjustment. Which explains why I’ll concentrate on the larger ones early, then work my way back toward the smaller ones.
Adversity tends to have a greater impact early. Whether that’s heat, hills, humidity, or even all three, those less fit will tend to struggle a bit more early, possibly overcooking the course adjustment.
The girls adjustment will typically be a bit more, as they’re spending more time on the course.
These will get weighed less and less as the season rolls on, meaning virtually nothing come October. As a coach, I’d stress not losing sleep over early season times. On here, I’m stressing the same thing.
Girls Adjustment: -52 Boys Adjustment: -47
As always, these writeups below will shoutout someone or a team that stood out from the race. That may not be the best runner or the winning team. Perhaps a team that surprised, a runner breaking through, or a runner contributing to a team victory. Of course, if you come to me nicely and want to brag about a fellow team/competitor/teammate, let me know, and I’ll try to give them love further down the line.
MOVIN’ AT MILFORD
Paige McArdle, Davison
Her 2022 shortened, Paige is making the most of her healthiness early in her senior year. Her opener at Lamplighter was a massive PB, dropping 25 seconds from her best time that was attained as a sophomore. I know there were no team awards here, but IF THERE WERE, Paige would’ve been the lead runner on a winning Cardinal team. Perhaps Davison is a candidate to make it out of Region 4? That would be a great cap on Paige’s career.
Evan Loughridge, Pinckney
To find someone that hit the low-16’s at Possum Hollow this early in the season, you’ll have to go back to the 2018 or 2019 season, where names such as Andrew Nolan, James Gedris, Zach Stewart, and Jack Spamer were racing before embarking to play roles on Big Ten teams. Evan’s 16:06 here Thursday was nearly 40 seconds faster than his junior effort, under very similar conditions too. Considering he spent the majority of his junior year in the mid-15’s, the appearance that he’s in better shape is a scary prospect for Division 2.
