The above infographs are from last season. I’ll make some new ones with updated stats for 2023.
With the early season ratings, a couple of notes:
Elite, more experienced runners will always be a bit overrated early. They tend to come into the season in better shape relative to the rest of the field, and thus are closer to their championship season fitness compared to someone newer to the sport.
With smaller meets, they’re not as accurate as they may be later in the year. Smaller samples and less ability to compare makes it hard to come up with an adjustment. Which explains why I’ll concentrate on the larger ones early, then work my way back toward the smaller ones.
Adversity tends to have a greater impact early. Whether that’s heat, hills, humidity, or even all three, those less fit will tend to struggle a bit more early, possibly overcooking the course adjustment.
The girls adjustment will typically be a bit more, as they’re spending more time on the course.
These will get weighed less and less as the season rolls on, meaning virtually nothing come October. As a coach, I’d stress not losing sleep over early season times. On here, I’m stressing the same thing.
The above infographs are from last season. I’ll make some new ones with updated stats for 2023.
With the early season ratings, a couple of notes:
Elite, more experienced runners will always be a bit overrated early. They tend to come into the season in better shape relative to the rest of the field, and thus are closer to their championship season fitness compared to someone newer to the sport.
With smaller meets, they’re not as accurate as they may be later in the year. Smaller samples and less ability to compare makes it hard to come up with an adjustment. Which explains why I’ll concentrate on the larger ones early, then work my way back toward the smaller ones.
Adversity tends to have a greater impact early. Whether that’s heat, hills, humidity, or even all three, those less fit will tend to struggle a bit more early, possibly overcooking the course adjustment.
The girls adjustment will typically be a bit more, as they’re spending more time on the course.
These will get weighed less and less as the season rolls on, meaning virtually nothing come October. As a coach, I’d stress not losing sleep over early season times. On here, I’m stressing the same thing.
Girls Adjustment: -22 Boys Adjustment: -15
As always, these writeups below will shoutout someone or a team that stood out from the race. That may not be the best runner or the winning team. Perhaps a team that surprised, a runner breaking through, or a runner contributing to a team victory. Of course, if you come to me nicely and want to brag about a fellow team/competitor/teammate, let me know, and I’ll try to give them love further down the line.
CRUSHED CORUNNA
Emily Rathka, Laingsburg
The junior has a penchant for ending her season on a tear, now she’s beginning her season where she normally closes. Her 20:48 last fall at the Shiawasee County Championship (4th place, mind you) was her first performance in the 20’s. Already in 2023, she’s been there twice. First, a 20:52 opener down the road in St. Johns, then a 20:55 win here, helping her Wolfpack grab the Small School trophy.
Ian Morgan, Okemos
Flying a little under the radar, Ian had one of the better freshman track seasons out there. 10:02 in Region 4, followed up by a 2nd spot in the CAAC Blue and a 3rd at Greater Lansing. That 10:02 ranked #28 amongst all Michigan freshmen. He’s picked up his fall season where the spring left off, running in the very low-17’s, placing 3rd in the Large School, and helping his Chiefs win. Obviously there’s been a bit of progress since then, but for comparison sake, his opener here last year was above 18:30.
Moving this meet to earlier in the day was smart. I always feel like at 4pm, this course gets obscenely hot.
The above infographs are from last season. I’ll make some new ones with updated stats for 2023.
With the early season ratings, a couple of notes:
Elite, more experienced runners will always be a bit overrated early. They tend to come into the season in better shape relative to the rest of the field, and thus are closer to their championship season fitness compared to someone newer to the sport.
With smaller meets, they’re not as accurate as they may be later in the year. Smaller samples and less ability to compare makes it hard to come up with an adjustment. Which explains why I’ll concentrate on the larger ones early, then work my way back toward the smaller ones.
Adversity tends to have a greater impact early. Whether that’s heat, hills, humidity, or even all three, those less fit will tend to struggle a bit more early, possibly overcooking the course adjustment.
The girls adjustment will typically be a bit more, as they’re spending more time on the course.
These will get weighed less and less as the season rolls on, meaning virtually nothing come October. As a coach, I’d stress not losing sleep over early season times. On here, I’m stressing the same thing.
Girls Adjustment: -33 Boys Adjustment: -28
As always, these writeups below will shoutout someone or a team that stood out from the race. That may not be the best runner or the winning team. Perhaps a team that surprised, a runner breaking through, or a runner contributing to a team victory. Of course, if you come to me nicely and want to brag about a fellow team/competitor/teammate, let me know, and I’ll try to give them love further down the line.
CRUISIN’ IN A MUSTANG
Emerson Nordbeck, Livonia Franklin
Each of the past three years, the Patriots have opened with Lamplighter, South Lyon, then Mustang. The past two years, Emerson has hovered around 21:00 or been a bit over that mark. These past few weeks have been different, her 19:46 at Lamplighter was her best opener yet and she’s followed that up with two low-20 efforts. My summer projections had Franklin as the third team from Region 6 and they’ve held that up through the early season, beating many of their regional rivals in head to head matchups. Emerson, her sister McKinnon, and Ava Peters could be a major help there, staying ahead of the masses, forming a formidable top three.
Kamari Ronfeldt, Ann Arbor Pioneer
I can do many things, find solutions to many issues. One thing I cannot do is figure out which freshmen are going where in Ann Arbor:
I knew Kamari existed (how can you not with those times!), but Ann Arbor Track Club could mean Skyline, Pioneer, Huron. Perhaps Catholic Central, maybe Lincoln, who knows!
Anyhow, I found out after the Region 5 projections that Kamari was heading to Pioneer, which by my math vaulted them into the 7th spot or so.
Now, Pioneer has three solid frontrunners (Peterson Sand, Overdier) and a freshman who runs in the low-16’s (best freshman by 75+ seconds) on a historically tough course. Excited to see where Kamari goes and ready for Sleeman to put together another top-10 team.
