Back here with the fourth installment of State Finals previews.
Everyone should be familiar with my cross country work, but to summarize, the main philosophy I have there is twofold:
Different courses and conditions alter times
One race isn’t enough to analyze, one must look to the whole picture, with more weight toward recent performances
I’m bringing a bit of that same flavor to these previews. For most events, I’ll chart an athlete’s top-five marks and their performances in May. Those two stats should give a picture what an athlete can do when they truly bring it and should give a glimpse into their current condition. I’ll also look to common competitions, head-to-head matchups, which should control for various weather conditions that impact performance and show how athletes compare against one another when toeing the same line.
The difference between track and the cross country predictions is that for cross, I have formulae that take those factors and spit out projections. For these previews, I’ll have my own predictions that are based on my own eye test. I’ve been told that last year’s predictions both motivated and gave confidence and those are my intentions once again. I wish that everyone has the day of their life at the State Finals. It’d be quite boring if I was correct on everything. Please prove these wrong, unless I have you first.
Also in need of note – keeping on top and staying up to date of track stats is impossible, especially with my lack of programming knowledge and athletic.net’s password protection against web crawling. Both genders stats were compiled Saturday. I know there will results past that date and I know that’ll be the case for other events over these next 5 days. But we’re all armed with the same tools, we can all gravitate to the same site and dive deep into results. When the final predictions are made, those most recent results will be taken into account.
Those predictions will be added to this post by Thursday.
DIVISION ONE
Returning from the 2022 State Finals are a few girls from the Top 8 and others in the mix of competition. You have the hometown girl, Maya Anderson,her string of mid-18’s placing her right in the same spot she was last year. Woodhaven’s Maya Justice didn’t reach the podium last year, a great learning experience for her freshman self. She’s undefeated on the year, going up against the State’s best at Team State and Golden Triangle, large invites that bode well for the big stage. Margaret Monaghan and Sophie Daugard are your all-around athletes, Sophie coming over from Shot Put, Margaret in both the hurdles. And in the mix of all those names, you have the consistent Ashley Richburg, who’s been between 17’ and 17’8 for all of the past five weeks.
Can the freshman shock the world and steal a trophy? Sadie Dykstra has shown no reason that she can’t. She’s only been defeated once this year (to Olivia Findlay, who has a great shot of winning in D4) and has reached 18’1, the best mark of any freshman in the state. She’ll have upper class competition from a multitude of names. Kaitlyn Molnar has been on a roll of late, winning Huron League and Region 16 titles, along with grabbing the D2 state lead at the Metro Classic. Madison Nino, Nyla Reed, Hallie Kooyer, and Brielle Reason all made All-State last year.
In Division Three, Southern Michigan is long jump land. Napoleon, Hillsdale, Hudson, Union City, Hanover-Horton make up five of the top six best jumps in the State. Region 25 at Hillsdale may be a point we can look to, with Mia Hinz narrowly grabbing the championship over Alyssa Budd. Two others placed high there, Adalynn Rumsey and Kaytie Warren. But it appears to be a battle between the first two. Does Hinz in her first year of track at Hillsdale capture the title or does Budd exact revenge?
34 girls! That’s a ton of qualifiers! Among those 34 are 7 that stepped onto the award stand last year. Grace Wolfe and Claire Molnar are having great championship seasons, Grace winning the NWC in a 17’0 PB, Claire sweeping the TCC and Region 35. Mentioned earlier, Olivia Findlay bested freshman sensation Dykstra to take the Blue Water title. And added to all those wonderful returners is Breckenridge’s BayLeigh Clapp, whose 16’8 ranks #5 amongst all freshman girls in the state.
The sophomore’s already turning heads, and if you’re heading to Rockford you may want to take a trek from the stands to the field event area to watch him fly. Quincy Isaac hit a 24’3 long jump at Farmington, a big invitational with a propensity to deliver big performances. As Jeff Hollobaugh noted in his newsletter, there wasn’t a wind gauge, but my sources on the ground corroborate his words, that Isaac has much more in his legs. Of course, in the long jump, technicality is a major factor, and just as Maya Anderson has a familiarity with the Rockford boards, so does Carter Bissell, who was fourth here last year. Look at last year’s results and you’ll see a ton of names that are aching to get on that medal stand, Davis Barr, Dylan Lafontsee, Josh Tiption, Jordan Gutierrez, amongst others. Let’s just put it this way… I know where I’ll be early Saturday morning.
I love the contrast of the Bower brothers. On one hand, a season full of accolades for Wyatt Bower, a majority of his jumps over 21’ with a FML Championship sprinkled in there. Two(!) competitions for Tarick Bower, the latest of which a 22’9 regional win. As he becomes more acquiesced to the event, will he leap even further, far enough to win a title? Or will he be stonewalled by Xavier Davis, who blasted a 23’5 to win the Hazel Park regional. And if anyone doubts that validity, keep in mind Xavier won the Oakland County title this past weekend, beating everyone and anyone from those D1 schools.
Not many have been on the tear that Mitchel Harrington has been on. He’s undefeated since early May, claiming wins at Region 21 and in the LMC. His 22’9 to win the Clare Regional is the #3 jump in the state as of today. More than a foot victory and that was over some kids that will surely be in the mix, such as Kanye Marineau, Carson Parks, and Karson Tocco. Just down I-75 is a pair of teammates looking to take him down: Sawyer Moloy and Nickolas Metzger. This past week, the two combined for 16 points at the Jack Pine Conference championship and they’re poised to emit similar point totals here. Combine that with their relays and the high jump and the Mustangs have a chance at something bigger.
The Champ is back and he’s rounding into form to defend his title. Twelve months back, he turned a season of sub-20’ leaps through mid-May into 21’s in championship season and 22’3 win in the Finals. He’s on a similar trajectory this year, already hitting 22’3 to take a Blue Water title. He’ll have stiff competition though, mainly from jump savant Mekhi Wingfield and Anthany Buford. Buford holds the D4 lead with his 22’6 at the Metro Classic, where he leapt ahead of all those Downriver D1 kids. Wingfield is undefeated on the year with two 22’+’s on his resume.
Back here with the third installment of State Finals previews.
Everyone should be familiar with my cross country work, but to summarize, the main philosophy I have there is twofold:
Different courses and conditions alter times
One race isn’t enough to analyze, one must look to the whole picture, with more weight toward recent performances
I’m bringing a bit of that same flavor to these previews. For most events, I’ll chart an athlete’s top-five marks and their performances in May. Those two stats should give a picture what an athlete can do when they truly bring it and should give a glimpse into their current condition. I’ll also look to common competitions, head-to-head matchups, which should control for various weather conditions that impact performance and show how athletes compare against one another when toeing the same line.
The difference between track and the cross country predictions is that for cross, I have formulae that take those factors and spit out projections. For these previews, I’ll have my own predictions that are based on my own eye test. Those will be edited in on Wednesday or Thursday next week, mainly to reduce any sort of pressure, but also to gather any last second info. I’ve been told that last year’s predictions both motivated and gave confidence and those are my intentions once again. I wish that everyone has the day of their life at the State Finals. It’d be quite boring if I was correct on everything. Please prove these wrong, unless I have you first.
Also in need of note – keeping on top and staying up to date of track stats is impossible, especially with my lack of programming knowledge and athletic.net’s password protection against web crawling. The girls stats were compiled as of Tuesday, the boys as of Thursday. I know there are results past that date and I know that’ll be the case for other events over these next 10 days. But we’re all armed with the same tools, we can all gravitate to the same site and dive deep into results. When the final predictions are made, those most recent results will be taken into account.
I’ll have predictions loaded on here by Thursday. Please check back then. But read first!
DIVISION ONE
It appears at this point in the year that we have five main competitors. Our defending champ, Abby Russell is back of course, the discus in my mind being the stronger of her two events. At the Metro Classic, she ripped a 149’4, vaulting her into Michigan’s All-Time Top 25 and the #2 rank across the entire state. Ava Wojciechowski just won the Oakland County crown in the discus, beating her Viking teammate Savannah Breitwiser and Elyse Finch. But both Breitwiser and Finch boast throws over 140’ and 135’ respectively, so they’re both capable of making a dent here. Midland’s Lillian Lince is undefeated on the year and Ms. Consistent in May, between 130’ and 141’ on all her best tosses. Along the way of that steadiness has come a SVL and Region 1 title.
2023 has been the year of Maelie Hope. The Whitehall senior opened her season with two massive throws, both over 150’ and has been mega consistent since. She’s undefeated on the year, winning the WMC, West Michigan Meet, and Region 12 along the way. And let’s mention she’s also excellent in the shot, 100m, AND 200m. There are two girls that could give her a run and both are peaking at the right time. Haley Guerrant is another one on an undefeated tear, having just captured the win at MITCA Team State, throwing a personal best along the way. Janae Hudson is also unbeaten and just grabbed a win at the vaunted Blue Water Meet of Champions, the unofficial Port Huron area title.
She placed 2nd here last year and the results show she’s not looking to let that happen again. Sophia Snellenberger has busted out some awe-inspiring throws, such as a 147’ to win Quincy’s home invitational and a 143’ to win MITS State. She’s also conserved her energy and done just enough to win, 15/15 on victories in her senior season. If anyone were to pull the minor upset, it could be Payton Otto, dropping down from Division 2 (2nd last year) or Gaby Reeve, coming up from Division 4 (3rd last year). Both have season bests above or near 130’
This is likely the most intriguing battle of all the discuses. Natalie Wandrie boasts the furthest personal best, a 130’ early in Harbor Springs. She’s been challenged lately by Kelsey Hansen, who pulled up within 10’ of her to grab 2nd in Region 31. Harley Bear and Emily Stinson both set personal bests to win their regional. Stinson has revenge on her mind from last year, Bear has championship experience, placing 6th and 17th the past two years. Lily Parker boasts the second-best season best (say that a thousand times), placing 2nd behind Janae Hudson in the Blue Water Championship and Emily Carbajal is undefeated on the year, coming into the State Finals on a championship roll. Region 35, TCC, and D4 Team State Titles will be a boost of confidence heading into this loaded competition.
Instead of the paragraphs, I had the idea of including a little fact about each qualifier. It turns out that idea was majorly misguided and took up way too much dang time. If I had done that for other events, I’d be writing these previews into 2024. Boys Discus throwers, please enjoy your extra bit of attention. 😊
I’ll have predictions loaded on here by Thursday. Please check back then. But read first!
DIVISION ONE
Facts
Grade
Name
Team
Info
11
Brycen Anderson
Walled Lake Central
Division 1 leader has won the LVC and Region 9.
12
Gerald Capaccio
St. Joseph
First time qualifier in the discus. SMAC and Region 3 Champion.
12
Demarrio Roetherford
Wyandotte Roosevelt
Madonna commit coming into his own as a senior, improving from 141′ to 165′, winning the Downriver League and Region 5 along the way.
11
Ty Robertson
Saginaw Heritage
Capable of some massive heaves, such as his 164′ at Punch a Hole in the Sky.
11
Merrick Hocking
Midland
Didn’t match his Regional distance, but gained a 2nd straight SVL Discus championship to add to the collection.
12
Andrew Berryhill
Battle Creek Lakeview
His 166′ to win Region 4 marks almost a 15′ improvement from 2022, where he placed 11th at State.
11
Garrett Weeden
Zeeland East
Another one capable of blasting one on a good day, multiple 160’+’s on his resume
12
Lucas Lesher
Holland West Ottawa
After a season full of 140’s and one 150, blasted a 162′ to win Region 2.
12
Lukas Ray
Wyandotte Roosevelt
Superb improvement in the disc, adding 29′ from his junior self, a great second fiddle to Roetherford.
10
Dominic Weatherly
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
Has potential for big discs, evidenced by his 158′ to win at Dakota earlier in the month.
12
Hunter Harding
Brighton
Another one who’s rolled past 150′, doing it in a KLAA Championship win
11
Parker Williams
Zeeland East
Season of gradual progress extended to Metro Health, where Parker nudged past 150′.
11
Nathan Cody
Walled Lake Central
First time ever qualifier, his 3rd place in Region 9 a significant improvement from 18th as a freshman.
12
Luke Eros
Howell
Recovered from a weaker KLAA meet to almost match his lifetime best at Region 4.
12
Josh Kriekaard
Cedar Springs
Rigtht behind Lesher in Region 2, his 159′ toss a 12′ season best.
12
Nathan Cobbs
East Kentwood
11′ season best to capture 2nd in Region 3.
10
Teegan Simmons
Monroe
Has turned it up a notch in championship season, 151′ at Lincoln’s JV meet leading to a 3rd Place in Region 5.
10
Rusty Klaer
St. Joseph
Potential darkhorse, his 154′ at the GR Elite Challenge looming large on his portfolio.
10
Camden Pawlick
Saline
Majorly consistent in May with four of his five finals over 140′.
9
Andre Neumann
White Lake Lakeland
Freshman Oakland County Champ portends well for the future, as does gaining State Finals experience.
10
Max Stoecker
Midland
First year of throwing has been a success, placing 3rd in Region 1 and 2nd in the SVL.
11
Ian Fedewa
Caledonia
From 113′ as a sophomore to 149′ as a junior.
12
Mason Fraley
Salem
Used the confidence gained from getting to State and turned it into 150′ at Churchill on Tuesday.
12
Daniel Yarrington
Utica
Captured his first MAC White title in the discus.
12
Cade Riddle
Brighton
Has added 15′ to his best sophomore disc, qualifying for the first time ever.
10
Case Johnson
Greenville
153′ to place 3rd in Region 3 a 12′ season best.
11
Tyler Marrogy
Walled Lake Central
Rapid progress in the final few weeks, from a season in the 130′ range to 154′ in Region 9.
11
Idrys Cotton
Plymouth
143′ to win Region 6 was first foray into the 140’s.
12
Logan Costello
Grand Ledge
Rapid rise late, capped recently by CAAC Blue trophy.
12
Ryan Mitchell
Cedar Springs
Stepped up in a big way, ripping a 150’er when his previous best landed short of 130′.
12
David Rolands
Berkley
Placed second in Region 8, throwing a 4′ personal best in the process.
11
David Osagiede
Lakeview St. Clair Shores
Massive improvements abound, 40′ from his sophomore to junior years.
11
Nnaemeka Ikechi
Warren DeLaSalle
Has added 10′ between his sophomore and junior years.
11
William McPherson
Rochester Adams
After a season primarily in the 110’s, has gone 130’+ in two of his last three meets.
Back here with the second installment of State Finals previews.
Everyone should be familiar with my cross country work, but to summarize, the main philosophy I have there is twofold:
Different courses and conditions alter times
One race isn’t enough to analyze, one must look to the whole picture, with more weight toward recent performances
I’m bringing a bit of that same flavor to these previews. For most events, I’ll chart an athlete’s top-five marks and their performances in May. Those two stats should give a picture what an athlete can do when they truly bring it and should give a glimpse into their current condition. I’ll also look to common competitions, head-to-head matchups, which should control for various weather conditions that impact performance and show how athletes compare against one another when toeing the same line.
The difference between track and the cross country predictions is that for cross, I have formulae that take those factors and spit out projections. For these previews, I’ll have my own predictions that are based on my own eye test. Those will be edited in on Wednesday or Thursday next week, mainly to reduce any sort of pressure, but also to gather any last second info. I’ve been told that last year’s predictions both motivated and gave confidence and those are my intentions once again. I wish that everyone has the day of their life at the State Finals. It’d be quite boring if I was correct on everything. Please prove these wrong, unless I have you first.
Also in need of note – keeping on top and staying up to date of track stats is impossible, especially with my lack of programming knowledge and athletic.net’s password protection against web crawling. The girls stats were compiled as of Monday, the boys on Wednesday. I know there are results past that date and I know that’ll be the case for other events over these next 10 days. But we’re all armed with the same tools, we can all gravitate to the same site and dive deep into results.
Somewhere in the time frame between compiling the girls info on Monday and the boys on Wednesday (don’t worry, I was planning ahead or working on other events), I figured I’d write a bit more info for each boy. I’d rather give little bits of info and if you’re reading, you can take that info and create your own story, rather than write paragraphs. So the girls have less writing, but I’ll fill that in when I make predictions. 🙂
DIVISION ONE
Facts
Name
Team
Info
Andrew Berryhill
Battle Creek Lakeview
2022 Champ. Over 57′ in every final this year.
Gerald Capaccio
St. Joseph
Region 3 Champ. 9th Place in 2022.
Lukas Ray
Wyandotte Roosevelt
Region 5 Champ. 10’+ improvement from 2022.
Ben Przytula
Gibraltar Carlson
Downriver League champ in showdown with Lukas Ray.
Merrick Hocking
Midland
SVL and Region 1 Champ.
Parker Williams
Zeeland East
OK Green Champ, 2nd Place Region 2.
Garrett Weeden
Zeeland East
Region 2 Champ. Above 50′ in 2 of last 3 meets.
Idrys Cotton
Plymouth
Region 6 Champ, setting a PR along the way.
Jaxson Wilson
Hartland
13th Place – 2022. 2x KLAA Champ
David Rolands
Berkley
OAA Blue/Gold Champ, consistently near 50′ all year.
Jesse Lietzow
Warren DeLaSalle
CHSL Bishop Champ with two 50′ throws on his resume.
Case Johnson
Greenville
OK White Champ. Has improved 10’+ from his freshman campaign.
Omari Hairston
Beverly Hills Groves
Region 8 Champ and PR in the same meet.
Ty Robertson
Saginaw Heritage
7th Place – 2022, has added a foot to his previous best
Daniel Yarrington
Utica
2x MAC White Champ, also steady from 47′ to 49′.
John Dixner
Fenton
FML Champ, then first throw above 50′ at Region 1.
Garrod Alexander
Walled Lake Central
Region 9 and LVC Champ
Mason Fraley
Salem
2nd Place in Region 6. Consistent 45′ to 48′ thrower.
Max Stoecker
Midland
4th Place – Region 1. Has thrown 48′ in his first year of shot putting.
Reinaldo Williams
Grosse Pointe North
MAC Red and Region 7 Champ.
Liam Vaughan
Walled Lake Western
2nd Place in Region 9. Has also improved, this time by almost 10′.
Dominic Weatherly
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
Region 10 Champ, setting a PB along the way.
Miland Weatherspoon
Jackson
45′ in Region 4 a significant improvement from his early season marks.
