Author: mixcspeedratings

The creative writing juices tapped out after months of writing, this is titled projections instead of preview. Previous iterations of these have had me writing until the wee hours of the night. I want to be my happy self on Saturday, so I’m gonna rely on the narratives written throughout the season and a few paragraphs here.

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest projected score to highest projected score
Projected Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top 10 % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

BOYS TEAM

Place significant goals out in the world, work to nail those goals, then reap the consequences. Allendale’s Falcons made it be known that they were shooting for six under 16:00. Their grind apparent, posted for the state to see. Here in 2024, Allendale has brought forth five kids that’ve shot into the 15’s, a sixth extremely close behind. That formula will win in most divisions and has been dominant in D2, where the Falcons have won at Spartan and Portage with considerable margins.

Grand Rapids Christian looks to be the favorite to grab the runner-up trophy and other podium spot. The Eagles are a consistent D2 presence and this year is no different, the baby blue kids placing 2^nd at Portage with five under 16:40. They’re joined by a few other West Side schools such as Holland Christian and Forest Hills Eastern, along with a young Alma team.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Allendale	105	1st-2nd	95+	95+	95+
2	Grand Rapids Christian	174	2nd-4th		77	95+
3	Holland Christian	207	2nd-6th		11	95+
4	Alma	211	2nd-7th		6	95+
5	Forest Hills Eastern	216	2nd-7th		5	95+
6	East Grand Rapids	226	3rd-7th			95+
7	Frankenmuth	261	5th-10th			95+
8	Marshall	284	7th-11th			95+
9	Otsego	301	7th-13th			75
10	Shepherd	313	8th-13th			75
11	Gladwin	335	8th-13th			21
12	Cedar Springs	350	9th-16th			16
13	Freeland	374	10th-19th			6
14	Pinckney	377	9th-20th			8
15	DeWitt	390	11th-19th
16	GR Catholic Central	392	13th-19th
17	Three Rivers	398	12th-20th
18	New Boston Huron	405	13th-19th
19	Fremont	409	12th-20th
20	Parma Western	477	19th-22nd
21	Adrian	518	20th-24th
22	Detroit Country Day	521	20th-25th
23	Chelsea	524	20th-25th
24	Dearborn Divine Child	551	21st-26th
25	Macomb Lutheran North	564	23rd-26th
26	Yale	630	26th-27th
27	St. Clair	641	25th-27th

GIRLS TEAM

The Martians entered the year as the favorite. They’ve had some hiccups along the way, sickness, poor races on the wrong occasion. But just as last year, they’ve found their best material late in the year. Late September at Bluejay is when the Blue n’ Yellow began to turn a new leaf. Five under 19:40, the girls were able to go against D1’s best and win. At Greater Flint and Region 15, depth came through in even more droves, each featuring all seven girls under 20-flat.

Coming into the season, the Chix from Zeeland East were not projected as highly. Projections miss one thing – work in the offseason, and it’s readily apparent that these girls sacrificed all summer. Their junior depth has all dropped considerable time from 2023 and Emma Drnek is reliable as they come. Mix in a freshman that’s been dropping time at every opportunity and you’ve got a team that wins in elite fields such as Portage.

The two teams employ differing methods in their victories. Goodrich relies more on depth and the ability for anyone to step up, Zeeland East is stronger up front.

If there is a chance at a podium upset, the patient DeWitt and the defending champs, Grand Rapids Christian will happily take it.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Goodrich	131	1st-3rd	52	95+	95+
2	Zeeland East	132	1st-4th	46	91	95+
3	Grand Rapids Christian	178	2nd-5th		5	95+
4	DeWitt	196	2nd-6th		7	95+
5	Holland Christian	204	3rd-6th			95+
6	Otsego	219	3rd-7th			95+
7	East Grand Rapids	280	6th-10th			95+
8	Adrian	283	6th-9th			95+
9	Freeland	299	7th-11th			94
10	Hudsonville Unity Christian	325	8th-12th			51
11	Ludington	334	7th-14th			38
12	Spring Lake	356	10th-14th			8
13	Cadillac	379	7th-16th			10
14	GR South Christian	406	12th-18th
15	Frankenmuth	419	12th-19th
16	Sturgis	433	13th-18th
17	Ann Arbor Fr Gabriel Richard	465	15th-21st
18	St. Johns	472	15th-24th
19	Pinckney	474	15th-22nd
20	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	509	17th-25th
21	St. Joseph	511	17th-25th
22	Williamston	515	17th-25th
23	Dearborn Divine Child	516	17th-25th
24	Carleton Airport	522	17th-26th
25	Chelsea	563	22nd-27th
26	Macomb Lutheran North	612	25th-28th
27	Croswell-Lexington	633	26th-28th
28	St. Clair	654	25th-28th

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

The lone returning champion. Last fall, TJ Hansen used a dastardly strong final 1.1 miles (10 seconds faster over that stretch than anyone, all day) to open up a large gap on his D2 competition. Throughout his career, both in Michigan and on the national scene, he’s employed those tactics. Just as great defense and pitching travel well, so does even pacing on the biggest stages.

In Division 1’s 2023 title race, we saw a first – sub-15 NOT winning. It’s a very real possibility that could happen again, as Jack Bidwell has shown the ability to challenge 9-flat on the track and bust through into the 14’s on the cross course. The recent Michigan commit has a 14:56 on his resume, and perhaps even more impressive, a 15:28 on a hot day at Spartan.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	TJ Hansen	Freeland	1.1
2	12	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	2.7
3	12	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	3.9
4	12	Colin Murray	Dearborn Divine Child	4.9
5	11	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	8.7
6	12	Jeb Hillary	GR Catholic Central	9.4
7	12	Simon Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	10.6
8	11	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	10.6
9	12	Dominic Lowrie	Battle Creek Harper Creek	12.0
10	12	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	12.2
11	12	Kilian Whalen	Allendale	13.5
12	10	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	14.5
13	12	Elijah Christensen	Gladwin	16.1
14	11	Moises Salazar	Adrian	16.1
15	11	Thomas Larson	Alma	17.8
16	11	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	19.0
17	11	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	19.3
18	9	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic	19.9
19	11	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	20.3
20	10	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	22.7
21	12	Sullivan Zietlow	Three Rivers	23.0
22	10	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	23.0
23	12	Dylan Lydic	Haslett	23.9
24	12	Nolan Longuski	Shepherd	24.2
25	12	Jack Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley	25.5
26	12	Ben Gross	Allendale	27.4
27	12	Lucas Kuhn	New Boston Huron	27.8
28	12	Seth Mead	Gladwin	28.2
29	12	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	28.6
30	10	Steven Zawacki	Forest Hills Eastern	33.6
31	10	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	33.7
32	12	Alex Doneth	Mason	34.1
33	12	Jacob Draaisma	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	35.0
34	11	Owen Metzger	Sparta	36.0
35	10	Mitchell Dunlap	GR Catholic Central	39.2
36	12	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	41.4
37	10	Mason Hill	Allendale	42.1
38	12	Vincent Pollock	Fruitport	42.4
39	12	Stewart Waters	Whitehall	42.6
40	12	Andrew Commeret	Comstock Park	43.1
41	11	Donovan Ryan	Plainwell	44.5
42	11	Sean Ryan	Grand Rapids Christian	44.9
43	12	Reece Davis	Marshall	45.7
44	11	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids	46.2
45	9	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids	47.6
46	10	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	48.0
47	12	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	49.7
48	11	Luke Dulecki	New Boston Huron	50.0
49	11	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	52.5
50	12	Keegan Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	52.9
51	9	Duncan Palmer	Williamston	54.8
52	11	Ethan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	55.3
53	12	Will Whitmore	Holland Christian	55.6
54	11	Jeryn Frisbie	Belding	57.9
55	12	Carter Sherman	Fremont	59.3
56	12	Holten Mulherin	Otsego	60.9
57	10	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	62.1
58	12	Justin Bradford	Sparta	63.0
59	12	Noah Hernandez	Hamilton	64.0
60	12	Simon Erfourth	Owosso	64.2
61	11	George Scupham	Edwardsburg	64.3
62	10	Nicklas Parker	Frankenmuth	64.8
63	12	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	65.0
64	12	Eli Johansen	St. Joseph	66.9
65	10	Ryan Good	Parma Western	67.8
66	12	Hayden Gould	Big Rapids	68.1
67	11	Cole Wisniewski	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	68.1
68	11	Landon Gerritsma	Holland Christian	69.8
69	12	Brandon Simmons	Hastings	70.4
70	12	Caden Guffey	Zeeland East	70.9
71	12	Zachary Newman	Pinckney	71.6
72	11	Jack Estelle	Hopkins	71.8
73	12	Isaak Rubley	Dundee	72.7
74	12	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	74.0
75	11	Micah Small	Grand Rapids Christian	76.5
76	12	Conner McCormick	Mason	79.1
77	11	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	80.3
78	12	Bobby Donley	Corunna	81.3
79	12	Ethan Sellers	Flint Kearsley	81.9
80	10	Seth Betzold	Essexville Garber	82.8
81	11	Ben Verellen	Gladwin	83.3
82	11	Asher Jager	GR West Mich. Aviation	83.5
83	11	Reagan Ward	St. Johns	84.6
84	11	Elijah Baltierra	Alma	85.2
85	12	Nolan Park	Sturgis	86.5
86	11	Shephard Bower	Forest Hills Eastern	88.8
87	12	Cougar Clark	Frankenmuth	90.8
88	11	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	91.4
89	12	Jackson Walthorn	DeWitt	91.5
90	12	Jacob Hopkins	Detroit Country Day	91.8
91	11	Anthony Plana	Frankenmuth	91.9
92	9	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian	93.0
93	10	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day	93.4
94	12	Aidan Brinks	Holland Christian	96.2
95	10	Kevin Terpstra	Alma	96.5
96	11	Cooper Gardner	Battle Creek Harper Creek	96.5
97	12	Peyton Ruel	Muskegon Oakridge	98.4
98	12	Isaak Brook	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	98.4
99	12	Tyler Endres	Forest Hills Eastern	98.7
100	12	Sam Downing	Zeeland East	99.2

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Coming out of the gates on fire and with a purpose was Emma Hoffman. The Otsego Bulldog, already well accomplished in her career (2^nd here in 2022), wanted more. Having embraced an uptick in training and intensity, she found herself in uncharted waters early in the year. Busting rust early, she was able to slip under 18:00. When time came to run fast, that was overwhelmingly accomplished, as she now sports a personal best of 17:22. And all throughout have been wins – Spartan, Otsego Bulldog, Region 13.

I’ve written this a thousand times, I’d only do that if it were true, Ava Schafer races beyond her years. In last year’s Finals, she moved up from 10^th at the mile to 6^th at two, eventually crossing the line in 4^th. The same strategy was applied in track’s 3200m Final, as Ava hung back the first few laps before winning the D2 title. She too has won all year – Greater Lansing, CAAC Red, Region 14.

Each are unbeaten on the year and have experience in races of this magnitude.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	1.3
2	10	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.9
3	11	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	3.5
4	12	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	3.7
5	12	Courtney Bovair	Carleton Airport	5.7
6	10	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	6.9
7	11	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	10.9
8	11	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	12.1
9	10	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	13.3
10	9	Adalyn Raab	Zeeland East	14.1
11	11	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	14.7
12	12	Ayla Holben	DeWitt	15.3
13	12	Sophy Skeels	Adrian	15.8
14	11	Marie Gates	Hudsonville Unity Christian	17.3
15	10	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	17.8
16	12	Grace Evanoff	Flint Powers Catholic	18.7
17	10	Mia May	Sparta	19.7
18	10	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	20.7
19	9	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian	22.1
20	10	Johanna Mulder	Holland	22.3
21	12	Mea D’Agostino	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	22.6
22	10	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	23.0
23	10	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	23.2
24	10	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	24.6
25	11	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	25.5
26	12	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	26.2
27	9	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids	26.6
28	11	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	27.3
29	11	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	28.8
30	12	Mia Williams	DeWitt	29.1
31	12	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich	31.8
32	10	Addison Josephson	Linden	34.4
33	12	Layla Jordan	Goodrich	36.6
34	9	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich	36.7
35	12	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	38.8
36	12	Nadia Grierson	Ludington	38.9
37	12	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	40.8
38	11	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	41.0
39	12	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	41.4
40	9	Audrey Kline	St. Joseph	42.8
41	12	Joy Evans	Alma	44.8
42	9	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville	44.8
43	10	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	45.0
44	10	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	46.5
45	9	Danica Redes	Shepherd	50.1
46	10	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	51.0
47	9	Madison Petty	Adrian	51.4
48	12	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	51.9
49	11	Annika TerBeek	Grand Rapids Christian	52.7
50	10	Claire Brown	Goodrich	56.5
51	11	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron	56.7
52	11	Linnea Paige	Fremont	56.9
53	12	Karie Keefer	Freeland	58.0
54	10	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	58.1
55	10	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	60.4
56	12	Abby Robinson	Gladwin	62.6
57	12	Madalynn Karsies	Pinckney	64.0
58	11	Taryn DiLaura	Zeeland East	65.2
59	10	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	65.4
60	10	Caroline Randall	Hastings	67.2
61	11	Chloe Rinzema	GR South Christian	67.2
62	12	Nicole Schafer	Williamston	68.6
63	11	Sydney Bir	Sturgis	69.1
64	11	Amerie Wilson	Milan	70.0
65	10	Olivia Hollebeek	Holland Christian	70.0
66	11	Megan Kuzma	Zeeland East	72.0
67	11	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	73.8
68	12	Sierra Grooters	Hudsonville Unity Christian	74.5
69	9	Kaleigh Clark	Spring Lake	74.5
70	11	Samantha Brown	Clio	75.6
71	11	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	75.8
72	11	Layla Geurink	Holland Christian	76.3
73	10	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian	77.2
74	12	Maria Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	78.0
75	9	Tiffany DeMaagd	GR South Christian	78.6
76	11	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth	81.2
77	12	Marisa Chuey	Trenton	81.3
78	11	Evelyn Kuhn	Ann Arbor Fr Gabriel Richard	82.8
79	11	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	83.5
80	12	Natalia DeMea	Chelsea	83.8
81	10	Bridget Fidkowski	Ann Arbor Fr Gabriel Richard	84.4
82	10	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	84.8
83	12	Avery Byrne	Goodrich	86.2
84	9	Lexi Gibson	Holland	87.0
85	12	Grace Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	87.8
86	12	Nell Stover	Detroit Country Day	88.0
87	10	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	90.6
88	10	Monica Lynn	Ann Arbor Fr Gabriel Richard	91.9
89	11	Jada Prescott	Freeland	93.0
90	9	Aurora Doepker	DeWitt	93.2
91	10	Lucy Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	94.3
92	10	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	94.4
93	12	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	94.4
94	11	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey	94.8
95	11	Julia Faber	Battle Creek Harper Creek	95.1
96	11	Madelyn Baar	East Grand Rapids	95.9
97	10	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian	99.0
98	9	Chloe Mazza	Cadillac	99.3
99	9	Karina Mihai-Grammes	Adrian	99.3
100	11	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron	102.3

The creative writing juices tapped out after months of writing, this is titled projections instead of preview. Previous iterations of these have had me writing until the wee hours of the night. I want to be my happy self on Saturday, so I’m gonna rely on the narratives written throughout the season and a few paragraphs here.

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest projected score to highest projected score
Projected Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top 10 % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

BOYS TEAM

Returning from a 2023 Championship is Traverse City St. Francis. Repeating is a tough task for professionals. The complacency, added pressure, and being the hunted team all factors in denying the repeat. The evidence from this year is that the Glads are tougher than professionals. They have the ability to put all seven runners in the 16’s or faster. In meets such as Veterans Serving Veterans and Northern Michigan Meet of Champions, they’ve succeeded against bigger schools.

But one can look to Portage as a crack in their armor. Jackson Lumen Christi came into the year with two frontrunners, then three who would need to see improvement in order to contend. Gibson Shore and Rocky Bolton have considerably cut into the gap behind those top-two, Avery Morrow has been a steady (valuable trait!) 5^th runner. In early October, the Titans halved the Glad score through three, then had enough from depth to win the battle of D3 contenders.

These two are your podium contenders, then you have around 12 other teams that’ll be in the mix for the top-10.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Traverse City St. Francis	98	1st-2nd	90	95+	95+
2	Jackson Lumen Christi	142	1st-3rd	10	95+	95+
3	Ithaca	203	3rd-6th			95+
4	Saugatuck	241	3rd-8th			95+
5	Pewamo-Westphalia	250	3rd-8th			95+
6	Charlevoix	254	2nd-10th			95+
7	Stanton Central Montcalm	283	4th-10th			95+
8	Hanover-Horton	286	3rd-13th			81
9	GR Covenant Christian	295	5th-12th			92
10	Lansing Catholic	321	6th-14th			54
11	Flat Rock	330	9th-14th			35
12	Buchanan	356	8th-17th			20
13	Jonesville	370	10th-16th			8
14	Benzie Central	383	9th-19th			11
15	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	384	12th-17th
16	Reed City	425	14th-20th
17	Union City	441	14th-23rd
18	Hart	447	14th-22nd
19	Bath	456	16th-23rd
20	Holland Black River	460	15th-24th
21	St. Louis	480	18th-24th
22	Leslie	496	17th-26th
23	Brooklyn Columbia Central	534	18th-28th
24	Erie Mason	540	19th-27th
25	Sanford-Meridian	543	21st-27th
26	Pigeon-Laker	567	19th-28th
27	Ann Arbor Greenhills	596	23rd-28th
28	Clare	627	26th-29th
29	Clinton	702	28th-29th

GIRLS TEAM

Kind of unheralded by the coaches, Lansing Catholic has held onto the top spot all year on here. For good reason, the Cougars have some of the best depth in the state. Perhaps the greatest example of that was a state preview of sorts at Greater Lansing, where despite missing their 2^nd/3^rd girl, the Cougs placed all five under 20:35. Fully healthy at a quick Algonac Regional, LC placed five girls in the top-seven, all under 20:15.

In all divisions, this is the 2^nd lowest odds for a projected winner, with many other teams looking to spoil. Pewamo-Westphalia won at Portage, which had the highest concentration of D3 contenders. Stanton Central Montcalm has perhaps the best top-three in the state. Traverse City St. Francis has stepped on the podium in four of the past nine years. And Benzie Central is ascending quickly, thanks to the wowing improvement of their youngsters.

As with the boys, there are many other teams that can pull off a top-10 placing, the projections show ~13 that are capable of the feat.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Lansing Catholic	137	1st-3rd	78	94	95+
2	Traverse City St. Francis	162	1st-5th	4	30	95+
3	Pewamo-Westphalia	162	1st-5th	8	46	95+
4	Stanton Central Montcalm	175	1st-6th	6	20	95+
5	Benzie Central	196	1st-7th	4	10	95+
6	Jackson Lumen Christi	217	4th-8th			95+
7	Ithaca	236	5th-9th			95+
8	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	282	7th-12th			84
9	Leslie	287	7th-12th			73
10	Hart	290	7th-14th			71
11	GR Covenant Christian	318	9th-13th			33
12	Blissfield	322	8th-15th			22
13	McBain	336	8th-15th			14
14	Saugatuck	372	12th-16th
15	Clare	376	12th-16th
16	Onsted	449	14th-22nd
17	Grandville Calvin Christian	455	15th-22nd
18	Union City	460	15th-22nd
19	Grass Lake	460	16th-22nd
20	Buchanan	487	16th-24th
21	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	496	16th-26th
22	Laingsburg	503	17th-26th
23	Monroe St. Mary CC	523	20th-25th
24	Sanford-Meridian	541	19th-27th
25	Boyne City	563	23rd-27th
26	Jonesville	570	22nd-27th
27	Almont	623	25th-27th

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

Probably a three person race, with a fourth looking to slash through any carnage. Last year, throwing down an incredible kick to finish 2^nd, we learned that Gus Rohde has the makeup of a champion. Biding his time through much of the season, he’s brought his best material toward the end. Two tough courses at Chris Grabowski and Chippewa Hills saw performances indicative of greatness, a 14:58 at Benzie confirmed it.

Mitchell Hiatt has been performing at a high level all year, breaking 16:00 on countless occasions. Just as Rohde last year, we were witness to the fact that he’s unafraid of the moment, sticking his nose in the D3 race before finishing in 6^th. Juuust on the cusp of a sub-16 last year, Gage Hoffman affirmatively dropped a 15:40 to begin the year. He’s displayed that form throughout the year, the largest example being a 15:41 at Portage for the win.

With those three at the forefront and pressing, I wouldn’t be shocked if Landen Styka is there to pick up any bodies falling back. He’s placed in the top-three at every single race this year, hitting the 15:40’s in two large meets at Shepherd.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	August Rohde	Reed City	2.0
2	12	Mitchell Hiatt	Onsted	3.3
3	11	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.6
4	11	Landen Styka	Ithaca	4.4
5	12	Isaiah Dinverno	Jackson Lumen Christi	5.8
6	12	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	8.9
7	12	Levi Kamps	GR Covenant Christian	9.7
8	11	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	10.5
9	12	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis	10.8
10	12	Leo Swager	Jackson Lumen Christi	12.1
11	12	Matthias Morse	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	12.4
12	12	Miingen Bertrand	Ithaca	12.6
13	10	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	12.7
14	12	Landen Boulis	Hanover-Horton	13.0
15	10	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	13.0
16	10	William Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	14.4
17	12	Tyler Heal	Sanford-Meridian	20.4
18	12	Nathan Vargo	Flat Rock	21.5
19	11	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	22.0
20	12	Daniel Mandujano	Watervliet	22.4
21	10	Luke Herron	Caro	23.7
22	11	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille	24.3
23	11	Lucas Taraszkiewicz	Flat Rock	25.3
24	9	Owen Poppema	Bath	26.2
25	11	Robert Dykhouse	Manton	26.9
26	9	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	27.3
27	12	Owen Read	Traverse City St. Francis	27.8
28	12	Robby Myler	Traverse City St. Francis	29.4
29	10	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton	30.0
30	9	Christian Craanen	Monroe St. Mary CC	31.3
31	11	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville	32.0
32	10	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix	32.1
33	11	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	32.2
34	11	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix	35.7
35	11	Ben Gautsche	Union City	37.3
36	11	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic	38.8
37	10	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale	40.3
38	10	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek	41.4
39	11	Trenton Fetter	Adrian Madison	42.5
40	12	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	44.4
41	11	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm	44.7
42	11	Edward Mugisha	Wyoming Potter’s House	44.7
43	10	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River	45.7
44	10	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	46.5
45	12	Joseph Carlson	Traverse City St. Francis	47.7
46	12	Brayden Sweeney	Midland Bullock Creek	48.6
47	11	Liam McBeth	Buchanan	52.4
48	12	Austin Sulier	Erie Mason	55.3
49	9	Jackson Bowman	Saugatuck	56.1
50	11	Kyler Fertig	Stanton Central Montcalm	58.1
51	10	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck	59.3
52	11	Jackson Schaub	Benzie Central	60.1
53	12	Dante Pillot	Schoolcraft	61.7
54	11	Jacob Mankey	Ithaca	62.0
55	11	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids	62.1
56	11	John Edler	Homer	62.6
57	10	Micah Kuiper	GR Covenant Christian	62.8
58	10	Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi	62.9
59	10	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	63.1
60	10	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck	63.8
61	12	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	65.5
62	12	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	66.2
63	10	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker	66.8
64	10	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck	69.1
65	12	Cade Truemner	Pigeon-Laker	69.6
66	11	Julian Walker	Algonac	70.9
67	10	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie	70.9
68	10	David Castrejon	Newaygo	71.1
69	10	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview	73.3
70	12	Ian Waddell	Blissfield	75.5
71	10	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia	75.8
72	9	Eli Vanpoortfliet	Benzie Central	75.8
73	10	William Gancer	Stockbridge	76.1
74	10	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic	76.3
75	11	Caiden Helsel	Lake City	77.9
76	12	Jason Shoop	Union City	79.6
77	11	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan	80.9
78	11	Noah Raeth	Montague	81.9
79	9	Silas Ackley	Hart	82.2
80	12	Gabe Manchester	Clinton	83.0
81	9	Grady Richey	Lansing Catholic	83.7
82	12	James Bayes	Onsted	85.6
83	11	Sammy Gamboa	Saugatuck	86.6
84	9	Wyatt Roberts	Otisville LakeVille	88.3
85	10	Evan MacLaren	Ithaca	89.9
86	12	Luke Dykstra	GR Covenant Christian	90.9
87	10	Connor Schmidt	Clare	92.5
88	9	Nolan Kessler	Montague	92.7
89	10	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi	93.5
90	12	Colin Kuhn	St. Louis	94.4
91	12	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	94.9
92	10	John Keser	Buchanan	96.2
93	11	Paul Saladin	Reed City	96.4
94	9	Johnny Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	97.5
95	12	Tyler N. Kooienga	GR Covenant Christian	97.6
96	9	Tate Smith	Bath	103.0
97	11	Alessandro Avila	Constantine	103.6
98	12	Jacob Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	103.7
99	11	Zach Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	104.9
100	10	River Fox	Bath	105.4

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Two seniors have separated themselves here in D3, Kyah Hoffman and Emmry Ross. Every year, Hoffman gets quicker as the season wears on, this iteration no different. She’s run in the 17’s on many occasions, but none as expediently as her 17:25 at the Northern Michigan Meet of Champions. With the onslaught of Onsted races, Ross has been a bit more judicious in her efforts to go all-out. Still, five sub-18 efforts and a winning streak dating back to mid-September comprise her portfolio. We have one race of evidence between the two, a three second difference at Spartan, Emmry’s 18:19 to Kyah’s 18:22.

This race will also be a celebration of a squad of D3 seniors that have had their names all over the scene for years now. Grace VanderKooi, Lila Volkers, Betsy Skendzel, Whitney Werner, and Eliza Bush all have numerous All-States to their names. With that heavy concentration of graduating girls, perhaps we’ll get a preview of 2025’s contenders.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	1.6
2	12	Emmry Ross	Onsted	2.8
3	12	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	4.8
4	12	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	5.1
5	12	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	5.3
6	12	Grace Vanderkooi	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	5.9
7	12	Lila Volkers	Kent City	7.1
8	10	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	8.3
9	10	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.8
10	12	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	10.6
11	10	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	11.0
12	11	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	11.0
13	11	Hope Miller	Blissfield	13.0
14	9	Elliana Max	Kent City	14.3
15	11	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	17.6
16	10	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	18.7
17	10	Shelby Kuiper	GR Covenant Christian	18.8
18	9	Caelyn Torry	McBain	18.9
19	9	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic	19.9
20	12	Ava Hathaway	Bronson	20.6
21	11	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	20.7
22	12	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	22.3
23	9	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central	23.4
24	10	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	23.9
25	12	Chloe Stalhood	Hillsdale	24.8
26	12	Kaya Vrable	Caro	30.0
27	12	Mary Masserant	Traverse City St. Francis	31.5
28	9	Madisyn Wanstead	LeRoy Pine River	32.0
29	9	Khloe Lehnst	Ithaca	33.5
30	10	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	33.9
31	10	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	34.2
32	10	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	35.3
33	12	Skyler Fraley	Union City	35.7
34	11	Abigail Reis	Millington	36.8
35	11	Anna Poppema	Bath	36.9
36	11	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	38.5
37	9	Madison Wils	Bath	38.9
38	9	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic	42.4
39	12	Megan Gottschall	Lake City	44.0
40	12	Morgan Lawrence	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	44.3
41	10	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck	45.6
42	11	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic	46.1
43	9	Maisey Toteff	Hanover-Horton	46.5
44	10	Laura Castrejon	Newaygo	46.6
45	12	Madeline Young	Buchanan	46.7
46	12	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	47.7
47	11	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	47.8
48	10	Natalie Rosema	Hart	48.1
49	9	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	49.3
50	9	Addison Gregg	Ann Arbor Greenhills	52.6
51	10	Leah Sneller	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian	53.2
52	9	Adelyn Thelen	Pewamo-Westphalia	54.8
53	9	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet	55.8
54	12	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	56.4
55	11	Alina Martinson	Saugatuck	58.5
56	9	Avalynne Allee	LeRoy Pine River	58.8
57	12	Emily Rathka	Laingsburg	61.8
58	11	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	62.1
59	10	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck	64.2
60	12	Nevia Chimonas	Benzie Central	64.4
61	12	Hannah Geaney	Wyoming Potter’s House	64.8
62	11	Myleigh Hephner	Ithaca	65.5
63	11	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	65.6
64	9	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	65.8
65	12	Megan Woelkers	Flat Rock	68.2
66	12	Layla Lopez	Jackson Lumen Christi	68.2
67	9	Adalyn Jarchow	Grass Lake	68.9
68	10	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic	69.4
69	10	Nico Triebold	Grayling	74.5
70	9	Alaina Schaner	Hart	74.7
71	11	Emily Peters	Olivet	75.5
72	12	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	75.7
73	10	Allison Gautsche	Union City	76.0
74	9	Claire Miller	Monroe Jefferson	76.1
75	10	Reagan Lees	Wixom St. Catherine	76.8
76	10	Pyper Braun	EPBP Laker	77.0
77	12	Erin Lubahn	Leslie	77.1
78	9	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	82.3
79	10	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian	83.2
80	11	Abbie Schneider	Pewamo-Westphalia	83.9
81	10	Emily Dunphy	Traverse City St. Francis	85.4
82	9	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro	86.5
83	12	Abby Dice	St. Louis	87.6
84	12	Thia Tello	Jackson Lumen Christi	88.3
85	12	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	88.7
86	10	Andrea Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	88.8
87	9	Margaret Guerra-Harrison	Leslie	91.3
88	9	Lilly Whaley	Benzie Central	92.8
89	12	Hunter Shellenbarger	Elk Rapids	95.3
90	10	Lydia Minderhoud	GR Covenant Christian	96.5
91	9	Ellason Foster	Newaygo	96.9
92	11	Clarissa Baese	Ovid-Elsie	97.8
93	10	Marnath Tuol	Grandville Calvin Christian	100.0
94	9	Isabelle Strand	Ithaca	100.8
95	9	Hailee Bertels	Boyne City	101.4
96	10	Anna Hallett	Blissfield	101.6
97	11	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	102.6
98	11	Ella Heffner	Charyl Stockwell Academy	103.0
99	12	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	103.7
100	9	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central	103.9

The creative writing juices tapped out after months of writing, this is titled projections instead of preview. Previous iterations of these have had me writing until the wee hours of the night. I want to be my happy self on Saturday, so I’m gonna rely on the narratives written throughout the season and a few paragraphs here.

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest projected score to highest projected score
Projected Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top 10 % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

BOYS TEAM

Hillsdale Academy is far and away the favorite. The Colts have returned four of their five scorers and five of their varsity runners from 2023’s state championship. This fall, they’ve taken part in three meets with a decent range of D4 competition: Holly, Portage, and Class D. Each were significant victories. Fast and deep, they’ve shown the ability to place all scorers in the low-17’s or faster.

Following a rough showing at Spartan, Holland Calvary Christian has been able to move up and then stabilize. Perhaps the greatest example of that stability comes again from Portage, where the Crusaders packed up in the mid-17’s, opening up a 40-point gap on the rest of the D4 field.

These two teams are the overwhelming favorites to grab spots on the podium. Beyond the two, it appears that 3^rd thru 9^th places are up for grabs, then a few teams will be in contention for the 10^th spot.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Hillsdale Academy	104	1st-2nd	95+	95+	95+
2	Holland Calvary Christian	158	1st-3rd		95+	95+
3	Royal Oak Shrine	217	2nd-6th		3	95+
4	Maple City Glen Lake	224	3rd-6th			95+
5	Mason County Eastern	231	3rd-7th			95+
6	Harbor Springs	252	3rd-8th			95+
7	Kalamazoo Hackett	267	5th-9th			95+
8	White Cloud	295	5th-10th			95+
9	Whitmore Lake	303	7th-11th			95
10	Bridgman	335	8th-13th			49
11	Leland	344	8th-15th			37
12	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	358	9th-15th			13
13	Petoskey St. Michael	369	11th-16th
14	Dansville	376	10th-18th			5
15	Harbor Beach	400	11th-20th
16	Dryden	414	13th-21st
17	Tri-unity Christian	414	13th-20th
18	Riverview Gabriel Richard	417	14th-21st
19	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	430	15th-22nd
20	Manchester	436	15th-23rd
21	Three Oaks River Valley	458	16th-24th
22	Webberville	479	20th-24th
23	Ellsworth	502	17th-26th
24	Marlette	509	22nd-25th
25	Concord	534	21st-26th
26	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	556	24th-26th
27	Beal City	645	26th-27th

GIRLS TEAM

Another returning champion that is in the driver’s seat. Whitmore Lake lost a three-time All-Stater from their 2023 squad and has had girls step up in her absence. The Trojans are unafraid of competition, traveling to Shepherd on multiple occasions to face off against teams from higher divisions. At Portage and Holly, they stuck to their own division, walking away with victories at each spot.

If the Trojans were to fall, likely contenders are Hillsdale Academy and Bridgman. The two squads placed within three points of each other at Portage and have each shown signs that they’re capable of pulling an upset. For the Bees, it was Christian Comet; the Colts, Region 34. Those two races saw the teams place all scorers under 21:30, which would give the hope that they can create enough of a gap on Whitmore Lake’s depth.

I love the combinations of teams that could get on the podium. The most intriguing is Auburn Hills Oakland Christian. Their regional course ran about as fair as one can imagine, yet the Lancer trio of frontrunners were able to slip under 20-flat. Math could work out in their favor if their score through three is low enough.

Projected Place	Team	Projected Score	Range	Win %	Podium %	Top-10 %
1	Whitmore Lake	135	1st-3rd	80	93	95+
2	Hillsdale Academy	169	1st-7th	12	42	95+
3	Harbor Springs	175	2nd-5th		24	95+
4	Bridgman	179	1st-6th	6	24	95+
5	Breckenridge	190	2nd-7th		11	95+
6	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	224	2nd-9th		6	95+
7	Kalamazoo Hackett	237	6th-9th			95+
8	Gobles	241	4th-10th			95+
9	Bear Lake-Onekama	263	7th-10th			95+
10	Ubly	334	10th-15th			35
11	Grand Traverse Academy	343	9th-18th			22
12	Lansing Christian	351	10th-17th			17
13	Vestaburg	360	10th-18th			15
14	Royal Oak Shrine	363	10th-18th			11
15	Fowler	364	11th-18th
16	Buckley	377	11th-17th
17	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	385	12th-18th
18	Martin	417	15th-20th
19	Unionville-Sebewaing	451	18th-21st
20	Harbor Beach	477	19th-23d
21	Rogers City	480	18th-23rd
22	Beal City	517	20th-26th
23	Plymouth Christian Academy	538	20th-26th
24	Concord	538	21st-26th
25	Ellsworth	553	19th-26th
26	Petersburg-Summerfield	555	22nd-26th
27	White Pigeon	749	26th-27th

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

The experience gained from track titles, the endurance gained from ultras, Marek Butkiewicz hit the season blazing and hasn’t let up. Butkiewicz took an early loss at Michigan Catholic against D2’s Colin Murray and has been winning ever since. The times have come too – 15:27 at Otsego, 15:24 at Portage, and 15:11 at Gabriel Richard. He’s a solid favorite.

If there is someone to compete with Marek, it’s Abenezer Cerone. Last year’s 3^rd place finisher has won quite a bit himself – at Hansons, Brooks, and a 2^nd consecutive regional championship. He’s also faced off against stronger competition, placing 7^th in the ever-tough Oakland County Championship. His time there was 16:34, 27 sec. faster than 2023 under similar conditions. A definite candidate to run in the mid-15’s on Saturday.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Marek Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett	1.3
2	11	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	2.4
3	12	Theodore Davis	Dansville	4.4
4	10	Kyle Redman	Mesick	5.5
5	12	Colebrook Sutherland	Maple City Glen Lake	7.5
6	11	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	7.5
7	11	Brody Karg	Harbor Beach	9.6
8	12	Mason Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	10.9
9	11	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake	11.4
10	11	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael	11.5
11	11	Grayson Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	12.3
12	11	Sean Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	12.6
13	12	Tyler Laansma	Tri-unity Christian	13.4
14	12	Alex Tyndall	Mason County Eastern	13.5
15	12	Coleson Cruzan	White Cloud	14.5
16	10	Ty Redman	Mesick	15.3
17	12	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	16.1
18	10	Wesley Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	19.8
19	10	Jacob Ferdubinski	Riverview Gabriel Richard	20.3
20	12	Reece Poole	Hillsdale Academy	20.4
21	12	Austin Sneed	East Jordan	21.6
22	10	Abraham Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	21.9
23	12	Teddy Ippel	Bridgman	22.6
24	10	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	25.3
25	11	Grant Johnson	Manchester	30.9
26	11	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy	31.5
27	10	Anthony Rowe	Breckenridge	31.7
28	10	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian	31.7
29	12	Jeremiah Witt	Johannesburg-Lewiston	31.9
30	11	Luke Molenkamp	Hillsdale Academy	32.9
31	11	Carter Clark	Carson City-Crystal	34.8
32	12	Kaleb Canning	White Cloud	37.2
33	9	Lincoln Laansma	Tri-unity Christian	39.2
34	11	Carson Burgess	Brown City	39.4
35	11	Timothy Chamberlain	Portland St. Patrick	39.9
36	11	Liam McCaw	Maple City Glen Lake	40.4
37	11	Henry Lindley	Hillsdale Academy	40.7
38	9	Grant Corlew	Harbor Springs	41.4
39	10	Vern Clyne	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	41.8
40	11	James Rahe	Hillsdale Academy	42.0
41	10	Timothy Gaebler	Hillsdale Academy	42.7
42	9	Lance Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	44.5
43	12	Teddy Krieger	Harbor Springs	49.0
44	11	Khadar Jama	Ellsworth	49.1
45	12	Ben Iobe	Mendon	49.2
46	12	Joel Lange	Adrian Lenawee Christian	49.7
47	12	Zack Becker	Unionville-Sebewaing	51.2
48	11	Jesse Fielis	White Pigeon	51.6
49	11	Jonah Pollatz	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	51.8
50	11	Michael Bowker	Royal Oak Shrine	52.0
51	10	Riley Weed	Holland Calvary Christian	52.3
52	11	Rich Fanti	Riverview Gabriel Richard	54.2
53	12	Russell Vandermus	Petoskey St. Michael	54.3
54	10	Gibson White	Holland Calvary Christian	58.1
55	11	Max Brannan	Lutheran HS Westland	58.6
56	12	Matthew Pasiak	Harbor Beach	59.3
57	10	Brody VanTuinen	Holland Calvary Christian	62.3
58	11	Cole Brege	Rogers City	62.7
59	10	Caleb Adkins	Holland Calvary Christian	62.9
60	10	Milo Shoup	Mason County Eastern	64.6
61	9	Simon Reed	Plymouth Christian Academy	65.3
62	9	Carter Suttmann	Leland	67.3
63	9	Owen Jarosz	Frankfort	67.5
64	10	Ryan Miller	Hillsdale Academy	67.5
65	9	Nolan Collins	Whitmore Lake	67.8
66	10	Rush Marsden	Fulton	68.4
67	11	Josiah Johncox	Byron	68.7
68	11	Reuben Jiran	Novi Christian Academy	69.5
69	9	Joseph Edwards	New Buffalo	69.9
70	9	Beckett Dennis	Grand Traverse Academy	72.6
71	11	Andrew Lopez	Royal Oak Shrine	72.8
72	9	Atticus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	75.2
73	11	Ethan West	Webberville	75.9
74	11	Henry Kruzel	Harbor Springs	77.4
75	11	Jack Sharar	Rogers City	78.7
76	11	Logan Romain	Dryden	78.7
77	11	Quentin Smith	Fowler	79.8
78	12	Nico DiPonio	Austin Catholic	80.1
79	9	Levi Fitchett	Dryden	81.2
80	11	Nicholas Trader	Fairview	81.2
81	9	Kaiden Lague	Mason County Eastern	81.4
82	12	Ryan Blankenship	Eau Claire	83.5
83	11	Joel Johnson	Detroit Frederick Douglass	87.3
84	10	Amos Norder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	88.2
85	12	Camden Fager	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	89.1
86	11	Michael Walsh	Ubly	90.3
87	11	Gavin Howery	Webberville	91.0
88	9	Nathan West	Webberville	91.6
89	10	Carter Toensfeldt	Fairview	92.1
90	11	Keith Crompton	Frankfort	92.4
91	11	Matthew Bentley	Buckley	93.9
92	12	Aaron Crittenden	Potterville	93.9
93	12	Tom Shafer	Lutheran HS Westland	94.4
94	12	Beau Shaffer	Morenci	96.6
95	10	Ayden Mayr	Dansville	98.5
96	11	Caesar Soma	Royal Oak Shrine	98.6
97	11	Carter Russelburg	Allen Park Cabrini	99.4
98	10	Evan Keen	Leland	99.7
99	12	Alexander Dumont	Kalamazoo Hackett	100.1
100	9	Anderson Karkau	Dansville	100.8

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Over the past two years, Kaylie Livingston has displayed a wonderful ability to remain undaunted by the circumstances. Traveling here and there, running non-descript conference meets, heading to the indoor track in the middle of basketball season. Through this, she’s picked up a track title, indoor title, and placed 2^nd here last year. She’s been the class of D4 this time, running into the 17’s in five of her past seven meets. She’s likely the favorite.

Allie Nowak and Libby Smith are two others to watch. Nowak is lightly raced, but she’s well used to these championship races, having won one of her own during track. Smith has been consistently rising over the course of the season, hitting the mid-18’s in five of her past six efforts.

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Kaylie Livingston	Whitmore Lake	1.3
2	10	Libby Smith	Gobles	3.1
3	12	Allie Nowak	Johannesburg-Lewiston	3.2
4	12	Abigail Davis	Vestaburg	4.6
5	12	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	5.2
6	12	Jane Manthei	Petoskey St. Michael	6.3
7	9	Callie Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	7.1
8	12	Izzy Brooks	Adrian Lenawee Christian	7.3
9	11	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake	11.0
10	12	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper	12.7
11	11	Taylor Wiegand	Livingston Christian	13.3
12	10	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs	13.4
13	11	Emma Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	16.2
14	12	Ella Knudsen	Leland	17.0
15	11	Eleanor Cole	Lutheran HS Westland	19.2
16	12	Presley Allen	Mendon	20.9
17	10	Veyda Conley	Martin	21.9
18	10	Lauren Shaffer	Gobles	23.9
19	11	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake	25.0
20	11	Lilah Kiley	Kingston	25.4
21	12	Danica Aldrich	Breckenridge	25.4
22	10	Addy Zeller	Bear Lake-Onekama	25.4
23	10	Harlie Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	25.9
24	11	Ally Schmitz	Breckenridge	26.0
25	10	Amelia McKinney	Grand Traverse Academy	26.4
26	9	Carmella Julian	Maple City Glen Lake	26.8
27	11	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	27.0
28	10	Lydia Gleason	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	29.3
29	12	Brooke Sonnenberg	Genesee Christian Academy	30.8
30	12	Ella Walton	Hillsdale Academy	34.9
31	12	Juniper Rodham	Harbor Springs	35.1
32	12	Melanie Warren	Bridgman	35.4
33	10	Evelyn Meyer	Hillsdale Academy	37.0
34	9	Cassidy Bowers	Austin Catholic	37.1
35	11	Rowan Allen	Mendon	37.3
36	11	Cara Prusakiewicz	Dryden	38.9
37	12	Clara Fast	Bridgman	39.0
38	10	Adrienne Mitchell	Lansing Christian	39.1
39	11	Addison Jarosz	Frankfort	41.3
40	12	Kelcie Pung	Fowler	41.6
41	10	Brie Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	44.2
42	12	Caroline Roberts	Hillsdale Academy	45.0
43	12	Aubrey Appleman	Britton Deerfield	45.3
44	9	Sophie Grinage	Leland	46.9
45	9	Melodie Hulinek	Bear Lake-Onekama	47.1
46	9	Alyvia Janke	Unionville-Sebewaing	47.9
47	12	Brianna Locke	Beal City	48.5
48	10	Avery Langlois	Rogers City	49.3
49	12	Stephanie Hernandez	Addison	50.6
50	11	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	53.3
51	10	Ruby Pletcher	Ellsworth	55.6
52	11	Stella Behnan	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	55.9
53	11	Makenzie Wolfe	Petersburg-Summerfield	56.2
54	9	Anna Howell	Bridgman	57.8
55	10	Danielle Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	58.7
56	12	Erica Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	60.5
57	12	Lucy Shoup	Mason County Eastern	60.5
58	11	Katie Sweeney	Ubly	62.5
59	11	Raley Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	66.1
60	11	Leire Mahiques	Buckley	66.1
61	12	Riley McCumber	Pittsford	66.7
62	12	Julia Rogers	Kimball New Life Christian	67.8
63	10	Allie Miller	Hillsdale Academy	68.7
64	9	Madison Markowicz	Novi Christian Academy	68.9
65	10	Haley Stimer	Concord	69.7
66	12	Avery Westall	Breckenridge	70.4
67	9	Payton King	Kingston	71.2
68	10	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael	73.0
69	11	Madison Cooley	Gobles	73.1
70	12	Rose Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	75.9
71	10	Genevieve Rodham	Harbor Springs	76.2
72	10	Addison Patrzik	Grand Traverse Academy	76.6
73	11	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake	77.3
74	11	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	78.7
75	12	Nataly Vine	Breckenridge	79.3
76	9	Sophia Balistreri	Harbor Springs	79.7
77	9	Zoe Fabing	Fowler	80.3
78	12	Abby Ulbrich	Kalamazoo Hackett	82.8
79	9	Abbygail Plester	Ubly	82.9
80	10	Louisa Denks	Royal Oak Shrine	83.7
81	12	Brielle Voorhees	Tri-unity Christian	83.7
82	11	Kinsey Peer	Buckley	84.3
83	12	Autumn Reynolds	Potterville	86.3
84	12	Bridget Miller	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	87.5
85	11	Kate Van Es	Kalamazoo Hackett	89.3
86	9	Nora Tillman	Royal Oak Shrine	89.4
87	11	Elizabeth Caspar	Hillsdale Academy	90.2
88	12	Mickiah Allbee	Vestaburg	90.5
89	12	Reece Wruble	Harbor Beach	92.7
90	11	Acacia Williams	Holland Calvary Christian	93.6
91	10	Elizabeth Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes	94.7
92	9	Maizy Matthews	Breckenridge	94.8
93	10	Madison Smith	Grand Traverse Academy	95.2
94	9	Allison Schmitt	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	96.1
95	11	Juliette Tallon	Lansing Christian	96.1
96	12	Isabella Nelson-Daniels	Whitmore Lake	97.0
97	12	McKenzie Bowman	Harbor Springs	97.2
98	9	Claire Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	97.3
99	12	Emily Howell	Bridgman	97.5
100	10	Mikayla Kulawiak	Buckley	101.8