Another year and another crack at the annual Macomb County Prediction Contest. Last year, I captured bronze. In 2022, silver. I think it’s time we complete the trifecta and get gold. Anyway, if you want to join the contest, the rules and regulations are above.
I’ll probably have more projections later in the week for other area meets.
We’re out of Portage, out of the bigger area meets (Oakland and Wayne County), now onto more of championship season. Many of the top teams competed in a meaningful meet and we’re better able to discern their intentions for this final month of the season.
The WEEK 3 RANKINGScontained the best explanation of the year, so click there. But I’ll add another sentence of emphasis: although this past weekend’s meets weigh the largest, they are not the end all be all, these are cumulative.
Eight of the top-10 teams were present at Portage. There wasn’t much movement in the overall standings, save for Grand Rapids Covenant Christian moving up a few spots due to their depth having the best race of the year. Jackson Lumen Christi stayed at #2, but the gap has closed between them and St. Francis.
Why?
Only a minor upset! The Titans defied the usual 5th runner philosophy by having unreal strength up front – three in the top-11. Rocky Bolton and Avery Morrow held as close as possible to the nearby Glads, assisting in Lumen Christi’s 15-point victory. The gap in the overall points has decreased from 116 to 91. The difference in top-5 avg. has dropped from 21 seconds to 16 seconds. Will the trend continue or is this the wakeup call for Traverse City St. Francis? We’ve got a little less than a month to find out.
Looking Forward
The Metro Detroit Catholic schools have much tradition and many trophies in their cases, but new addition Jackson Lumen Christi appears to be the best parochial cross team in southeast Michigan. I have no clue how the Ohio teams in the CHSL will fare, I do know that Detroit Catholic Central is rated slightly behind the Titans.
Lansing Catholic took the weekend off in preparation for Greater Lansing. Pewamo-Westphalia took the opportunity to grab PR’s at Portage, five of their top-7 earning a lifetime best. Both will be at Ledge Meadows, the top contenders of the D3 contingent.
Mentioned in the D4 rankings, Saugatuck will look to fight off the pesky Hacketts and Bridgmans of the world and win the SAC Championship.
Top 27
Rank
Team
Score
Region
Top 5 Avg.
Last Week
1
Traverse City St. Francis
106
19
190.7
1
2
Jackson Lumen Christi
197
23
185.3
2
3
Ithaca
265
25
182.3
3
4
Saugatuck
328
22
174.2
4
5
Pewamo-Westphalia
337
24
174.6
5
6
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
380
21
174.4
8
7
Lansing Catholic
381
26
172.5
6
8
Hanover-Horton
387
23
175.3
7
9
Stanton Central Montcalm
425
24
175.8
9
10
Buchanan
442
22
170.4
10
11
Charlevoix
495
19
173.3
11
12
Flat Rock
526
27
174.8
12
13
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
542
21
168.7
13
14
Jonesville
555
23
169.9
15
15
Benzie Central
593
20
165.5
17
16
Reed City
618
20
168.4
14
17
Hart
643
20
162.6
16
18
Bath
743
24
162.7
18
19
The Potter’s House
750
21
161.0
22
20
Holland Black River
755
21
161.4
20
21
Union City
780
22
161.0
21
22
Leslie
782
26
158.9
19
23
Montague
792
21
159.4
23
24
Monroe St. Mary CC
850
27
158.4
31
25
Sanford-Meridian
859
25
159.4
24
26
Erie Mason
905
27
156.5
25
27
Brooklyn Columbia Central
909
23
155.1
33
Recap
P-Dub played out their name at Portage, their low sticks up front performing as usual, the fastest fourth and the second-fastest fifth. The gap was closed on Lansing Catholic, mainly thanks to an outstanding race from freshman Adelyn Thelen. In merely two weeks, Thelen has dropped 50 sec. from her personal best, now a 3rd Pirate under 20.
A huge leap came from Benzie Central, who has all the pieces humming at the right time. Four Huskie scorers achieved personal bests (and those four all erased those bests yesterday). Avery Kelly and Nora Grossnickle are proving reliable up front, the freshmen depth is improving by leaps and bounds. A scary proposition for the teams ahead of them.
Looking Forward
Doing their work at Portage, Pewamo-Westphalia lowered the gap on Lansing Catholic enough so that the top ranking is on the line. Obviously, more important than the top ranking here is how each team performs with three weeks to go. The Cougars and Pirates haven’t met up this year, however, we’ve got a picture of how it may shake out. P-W up front with Werner and Kramer, Lansing Catholic’s 3rd-6th all providing an advantage over their counterparts. The Greater Lansing field is probably a little stronger than the D3 final field, so point totals may be exaggerated later in the race. Regardless, we’ll get an honest picture of how the two teams stack up against one another.
Top 27
Rank
Team
Score
Region
Top 5 Avg.
Last Week
1
Lansing Catholic
195
26
117.8
1
2
Pewamo-Westphalia
210
24
122.0
2
3
Traverse City St. Francis
232
19
117.6
3
4
Stanton Central Montcalm
284
24
121.4
4
5
Benzie Central
315
20
109.3
7
6
Jackson Lumen Christi
317
23
109.0
5
7
Ithaca
354
25
103.7
6
8
Hart
480
20
94.9
10
9
Leslie
489
26
98.8
8
10
McBain
498
20
96.3
11
11
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
500
21
95.4
9
12
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
540
21
99.4
12
13
Remus Chippewa Hills
620
20
88.3
17
14
Clare
636
19
88.9
11
15
Blissfield
637
27
93.1
15
16
Saugatuck
653
22
88.8
13
17
Grass Lake
696
27
82.9
14
18
Midland Bullock Creek
751
25
84.0
16
19
Grandville Calvin Christian
800
21
79.9
18
20
Onsted
803
23
86.8
19
21
Ann Arbor Greenhills
846
26
79.2
20
22
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
867
21
75.3
22
23
Laingsburg
901
24
74.5
21
24
Buchanan
906
22
76.0
28
25
Manistee
910
20
73.3
38
26
Bronson
949
23
80.1
25
27
Schoolcraft
953
22
71.9
24
Individual Rankings
Recap
The award for the most sub-16’s has to go to Mitchell Hiatt, who just keeps quickly winning. There are very little poor efforts in his portfolio. 15:41 at Hudson, 15:22 at Stockbridge, 15:43 in Jackson, even a 15:57 in the rough Spartan conditions. As long as he keeps churning them out, he’ll be in a great spot come early November.
Likely feeling like he’s in a great spot is Gage Hoffman. Gage has returned to his PR form from Under the Lights, vanquishing the D3 Portage field en route to a 10+ second victory.
Gus Rohde moved down a few spots, but don’t be apprehensive, he did enough to win on a rugged Pine River course.
Looking Forward
Championships are on the line! Top-ranked Mitchell Hiatt will be at Lenawee County, no doubt dealing with Moises Salazar.
Ever rising Matthias Morse will look to win at Greater Muskegon, likely competing against Stewart Waters and Vincent Pollock.
I bet neither fathomed competing for these early in their career. As freshman, each finished over 30th place. If you’re newcomer to the sport reading this, dream big, just as these two have.
Top 50
Rank
Grade
Name
Team
Rating
1
12
Mitchell Hiatt
Onsted
204.5
2
12
Josh Slocum
Traverse City St. Francis
204.8
3
11
Gage Hoffman
Stanton Central Montcalm
204.0
4
12
Gus Rohde
Reed City
203.7
5
11
Landen Styka
Ithaca
202.4
6
12
Isaiah Dinverno
Jackson Lumen Christi
202.1
7
11
Jacob Stanislawski
Flat Rock
200.9
8
12
Levi Kamps
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
196.9
9
12
Matthias Morse
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
196.5
10
10
William Ready
Traverse City St. Francis
195.7
11
12
Landon Pestrue
St. Louis
195.2
12
10
Caleb Blonde
Jonesville
195.2
13
12
Miingen Bertrand
Ithaca
195.2
14
12
Landen Boulis
Hanover-Horton
195.0
15
12
Leo Swager
Jackson Lumen Christi
194.2
16
10
Hunter Eaton
Charlevoix
194.1
17
11
Noah Devereaux
Laingsburg
191.6
18
12
Nathan Vargo
Flat Rock
190.9
19
10
Luke Herron
Caro
190.3
20
12
Tyler Heal
Sanford-Meridian
190.2
21
9
Nole Lorenzen
Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
190.1
22
11
Tyler Leach
Otisville LakeVille
189.8
23
12
Daniel Mandujano
Watervliet
189.0
24
11
Robert Dykhouse
Manton
187.9
25
9
Owen Poppema
Bath
187.9
26
12
Owen Read
Traverse City St. Francis
187.1
27
10
Cooper Flick
Hanover-Horton
186.3
28
12
Robby Myler
Traverse City St. Francis
185.1
29
11
Jayden Fox
Saginaw Valley Lutheran
185.0
30
10
Ryder Hopkins
Charlevoix
184.8
31
11
Gibson Shore
Jackson Lumen Christi
184.7
32
9
Christian Craanen
Monroe St. Mary CC
183.8
33
11
Lucas Taraszkiewicz
Flat Rock
183.7
34
10
Logan Youngman
Hillsdale
183.1
35
11
Matthew Solomon
Charlevoix
182.8
36
11
Lucas Gates
Lansing Catholic
181.8
37
10
Marshall Brandt
Midland Bullock Creek
181.7
38
11
Edward Mugisha
The Potter’s House
181.6
39
11
Ben Gautsche
Union City
181.4
40
10
Jonas Ballard
Holland Black River
180.9
41
11
Nicholas Fowler
Jonesville
180.8
42
11
Liam McBeth
Buchanan
180.6
43
12
Brayden Sweeney
Midland Bullock Creek
180.6
44
12
Joseph Carlson
Traverse City St. Francis
180.2
45
11
Trenton Fetter
Adrian Madison
180.2
46
10
John Kowatch
Pewamo-Westphalia
179.9
47
9
Jackson Bowman
Saugatuck
178.8
48
11
Kyler Fertig
Stanton Central Montcalm
178.4
49
12
Ian Waddell
Blissfield
178.3
50
10
Wyatt Werner
Pewamo-Westphalia
178.2
Recap
Kyah Hoffman continues her hold on the top spot, racing to another sub-18 effort at Portage. Just as last year, Hoffman is winning races at a high clip, with 7 of her 9 efforts resulting in victory. Unlike last year, one of these came at Portage, as she placed 3rd in 2023.
Beyond Hoffman, most of these girls stayed similar to the previous week, with one exception: Betsy Skendzel. The ultra consistent Glad tied her best race of the year (Party in the Park), placing 2nd and earning a Portage PR.
Looking Forward
Championships on the line yet again. Whereas the two mentioned boys had never won at Lenawee County or GMAA, Emmry Ross and Grace VanderKooi have. The two seniors have two area crowns and are looking to triple it up.
Whitney Werner, Alyssa Kramer, and Hailey Creisher will probably linger behind Ava Schafer and Rachel Smith, but a large meet such as Greater Lansing will provide ample opportunity to show worth and speed.
We’re out of Portage, out of the bigger area meets (Oakland and Wayne County), now onto more of championship season. Many of the top teams competed in a meaningful meet and we’re better able to discern their intentions for this final month of the season.
The WEEK 3 RANKINGScontained the best explanation of the year, so click there. But I’ll add another sentence of emphasis: although this past weekend’s meets weigh the largest, they are not the end all be all, these are cumulative.
Following a rough go of it at Forest Akers, Holland Calvary Christian was ready to redeem themselves. The perfect setting at Portage, facing many other top teams in the early morning. 11 of 17 Crusaders attained their best rating of the season and 9 kids hit a PR. The Crusaders took an aggressive mindset from the gun, throwing six boys into the top-25 at the mile. They slightly fell back after that point, yet still held on for 2nd place (and enough juice to move up in the rankings).
Of course in first, it was Hillsdale Academy with their paws all over the race. I’ll often say that the fastest fifth is a predictor of success and James Rahe played that role on Saturday. His 17:16 was 11 sec. clear of anyone else’s fifth and that quick time was ahead of all but one team’s 3rd runner. If that ain’t enough, the Colts are deep, too. They could’ve lost their first two boys and still won. Clearly the favorite at this point in time.
Looking Forward
The lone matchup between two top-10 teams comes at the SAC Championship, with Bridgman and Kalamazoo Hackett going after a high place in their conference. Top-5 D3 team Saugatuck has won the first two, the Bees and Irish have split wins over one another. At Portage, it was Hackett in front.
Hillsdale Academy has its SCAA Championships. The first two league meetings have been routs, the Colts scoring a perfect 15 each time out.
The inaugural Northern Shores Conference Championship will take place on Saturday. My guess is that Charlevoix will be the main contender, perhaps Harbor Springs can grab second?
Top 27
Rank
Team
Score
Region
Top 5 Avg.
Last Week
1
Hillsdale Academy
124
34
179.0
1
2
Holland Calvary Christian
199
31
169.0
3
3
Royal Oak Shrine
247
36
169.2
2
4
Mason County Eastern
319
29
162.7
4
5
Maple City Glen Lake
320
29
165.6
5
6
Harbor Springs
371
28
157.3
6
7
Kalamazoo Hackett
384
32
164.5
7
8
Whitmore Lake
421
33
156.0
8
9
White Cloud
422
31
156.3
9
10
Bridgman
524
32
151.8
11
11
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
558
30
148.0
10
12
Dryden
566
35
146.1
13
13
Petoskey St. Michael
609
28
146.6
20
14
Dansville
626
33
146.9
12
15
Grand Traverse Academy
650
29
140.9
15
16
Frankfort
652
29
140.4
25
17
Harbor Beach
656
35
144.7
14
18
Lutheran Westland
677
36
139.6
21
19
Unionville-Sebewaing
689
35
139.5
16
20
Tri-Unity Christian
695
31
142.4
18
21
Auburn Hills Oakland Christian
702
36
138.8
17
22
Manchester
703
34
139.0
19
23
Riverview Gabriel Richard
725
36
139.2
22
24
Marlette
764
35
133.9
23
25
Three Oaks River Valley
788
32
137.2
30
26
Concord
831
34
130.4
33
27
Webberville
843
33
129.8
26
Recap
With six of the top-seven teams competing at Portage West MS, eyes were locked into those live results. Top-ranked Whitmore Lake took on challengers coming at them in various ways. Packed up from 12th-15th, Bridgman fell just 4 points back at the mile. Charging in the second mile was Hillsdale Academy, who grabbed the lead after sitting in 5th at one. Summoning their championship spirit was the ever-important Sofia Robertson, who moved up 5 spots in the final 1.1, enough for the Trojans to walk away with a victory.
A minor move up came from Bridgman, who overtook Hillsdale Academy in the final mile to place 2nd. A major move came from Bear Lake-Onekama, finally filling out their entire team and reaching the potential that had been thought of in the summer.
Looking Forward
Despite being home to many D3 teams, the SAC’s first two jamborees were conquered by D4 squads. A month ago, it was Bridgman with an 8-point win over Kalamazoo Hackett. Two weeks back, Gobles leapfrogged into first with a very narrow 2-point difference on Bridgman. I don’t know how the SAC weighs its jamborees, but my guess is Bridgman leads, followed by Gobles, then Hackett. Given how the Bees performed on Saturday, you gotta figure they’re in a good spot to win. Then again, look to the gap in scoring and you know it could be anyone.
Harbor Springs looks to be the favorite in the first Northern Shores Conference Championship. Potentially an impressive feat, the lone D4 team in the midst and presence of all D3 teams.
The girl Colts have faced a little more competition than their boy counterparts. Hillsdale Academy has only won one of the SCAA jamborees with a perfect score. Don’t sweat, they won the other one as well. The league final comes on Saturday.
Top 27
Rank
Team
Score
Region
Top 5 Avg.
Last Week
1
Whitmore Lake
160
33
110.0
1
2
Hillsdale Academy
197
34
94.1
3
3
Breckenridge
210
30
93.3
2
4
Bridgman
212
32
92.1
5
5
Harbor Springs
215
28
93.5
4
6
Kalamazoo Hackett
285
32
86.7
6
7
Auburn Hills Oakland Christian
302
36
89.4
8
8
Gobles
309
31
91.2
7
9
Bear Lake-Onekama
351
29
86.7
18
10
Grand Traverse Academy
412
29
74.1
10
11
Royal Oak Shrine
415
36
72.5
9
12
Ubly
428
35
71.1
11
13
Buckley
468
29
67.7
15
14
Vestaburg
523
30
71.2
12
15
Lansing Christian
538
33
62.8
13
16
Unionville-Sebewaing
545
35
62.5
14
17
Holland Calvary Christian
565
31
60.2
20
18
Martin
571
31
62.6
16
19
Maple City Glen Lake
571
29
59.9
17
20
Harbor Beach
619
35
56.3
19
21
Beal City
702
30
46.9
22
22
Leland
702
29
40.2
23
23
Clarkston Everest Collegiate
707
33
47.4
21
24
Dryden
707
35
49.1
28
25
Fowler
725
31
35.5
24
26
Rogers City
727
28
44.6
25
27
Plymouth Christian Academy
736
36
49.5
26
Individual Rankings
Recap
Marek Butkiewicz sped out to a blistering early pace and ran away from the Portage field. 4:44 at the mile, a 20+ second gap at two, extended to a more than half minute victory. His 15:24 personal best continued the trend, 1:01 faster than 2023.
Abenezer Cerone showed improvement from his sophomore self. 27 seconds faster on the tough Possum Hollow course, moving up into 7th as well.
Moves into the top-10 came from Brody Karg and Landon Rogers. Both had never been below 16-flat before Saturday. Both came out of the weekend with shiny new 15:5x personal bests. An excellent beginning to the final month for both small school kids.
Looking Forward
The week after EVERYONE runs at Portage, we really don’t get too many individual matchups. Which makes sense, I ain’t complaining. You need that mental break before gearing up to peak. The one face off between top-10 runners will be at Chris Grabowski, with Kyle Redman and Alex Tyndall. The two WMD foes have gone against each other on many occasions. Tyndall got Redman in the first three meetings, Redman has the upper hand in the past two. Then there’s Thursday, a WMD Championship, a regional, and a little State Final too.
Top 50
Extended to 50! Hopefully this can elucidate how close some of you are to All-State.
Rank
Grade
Name
Team
Rating
1
11
Marek Butkiewicz
Kalamazoo Hackett
208.6
2
11
Abenezer Cerone
Royal Oak Shrine
204.3
3
12
Theodore Davis
Dansville
199.3
4
10
Kyle Redman
Mesick
198.1
5
12
Colebrook Sutherland
Maple City Glen Lake
195.6
6
11
Landon Rogers
Three Oaks River Valley
195.2
7
12
Mason Sinke
Bear Lake-Onekama
192.9
8
11
Brody Karg
Harbor Beach
192.8
9
12
Alex Tyndall
Mason County Eastern
191.8
10
11
Grayson Rorick
Hillsdale Academy
191.5
11
11
Landen Livingston
Whitmore Lake
189.2
12
11
Sean Siems
Kalamazoo Hackett
188.9
13
11
Cody Bradley
Petoskey St. Michael
188.3
14
12
Tyler Laansma
Tri-Unity Christian
186.2
15
12
Coleson Cruzan
White Cloud
185.1
16
10
Ty Redman
Mesick
184.7
17
12
Andrew Mabry
Bridgman
183.5
18
10
Wesley Chaffee
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
182.8
19
10
Jacob Ferdubinski
Riverview Gabriel Richard
182.7
20
12
Reece Poole
Hillsdale Academy
182.0
21
12
Austin Sneed
East Jordan
181.9
22
12
Teddy Ippel
Bridgman
180.7
23
10
Abraham Feeney
Maple City Glen Lake
180.3
24
10
Noah Schipper
Holland Calvary Christian
178.0
25
11
Luke Molenkamp
Hillsdale Academy
178.0
26
11
Carter Clark
Carson City-Crystal
176.5
27
10
Anthony Rowe
Breckenridge
175.7
28
11
Grant Johnson
Manchester
174.3
29
12
Jeremiah Witt
Johannesburg-Lewiston
174.2
30
11
Emmanuel Mehari
Plymouth Christian Academy
173.9
31
9
Lincoln Laansma
Tri-Unity Christian
173.7
32
10
Christian Getz
Holland Calvary Christian
173.4
33
12
Kaleb Canning
White Cloud
172.9
34
10
Vern Clyne
Auburn Hills Oakland Christian
172.3
35
11
Carson Burgess
Brown City
172.2
36
10
Timothy Gaebler
Hillsdale Academy
172.1
37
9
Grant Corlew
Harbor Springs
172.0
38
11
Liam McCaw
Maple City Glen Lake
171.6
39
12
Zack Becker
Unionville-Sebewaing
171.2
40
11
Henry Lindley
Hillsdale Academy
171.2
41
12
Teddy Krieger
Harbor Springs
169.5
42
11
Michael Bowker
Royal Oak Shrine
167.6
43
11
James Rahe
Hillsdale Academy
167.5
44
12
Ben Iobe
Mendon
167.1
45
10
Caleb Adkins
Holland Calvary Christian
167.1
46
12
Russell Vandermus
Petoskey St. Michael
166.0
47
9
Lance Niedzielski
Mason County Eastern
165.9
48
12
Joel Lange
Adrian Lenawee Christian
165.6
49
11
Josiah Johncox
Byron
165.5
50
10
Gibson White
Holland Calvary Christian
165.2
Recap
The Kaylie Livingston Show continued, this time with a bit more fireworks and excitement. In her dominance, Kaylie often leaves no doubt, vanquishing her competitors early and cruising to victory. Saturday, she was joined by Libby Smith. The Gobles sophomore hung with Livingston through two miles, each hitting that split around 11:35. Kaylie pulled away in the final mile, winning her second consecutive Portage race. Smith, with her 18:26, has now hit personal bests in her past two races. I can only imagine her confidence growing exponentially.
The other girl on her way up is highly-touted freshman Callie Sinke. Back in 8th grade, Sinke was a consistent figure in the 11’s and had even experimented with the 5k distance, racing to a 18:29 at Region 29’s PROM race. She was held out early in the season, but that’s no matter now, Callie has well acquitted herself to the high school scene, hitting 19:30 at Bluejay and 19:07 on Saturday.
Looking Forward
Izzy Brooks first started to make a name for herself in 2021 with her win in the Lenawee County Championship. Competition has gotten a bit tougher on the Ohio border (Emmry Ross), but Brooks’ presence up front has never wavered. She’ll be going for her fourth top-5 finish. Even before shifting her sights higher, Libby Smith was winning SAC races. It’s been 5 straight for the Gobles standout, on Thursday, she’ll be looking to clinch her 2nd league title in as many years.
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 