There’s so much to report on – STATE RECORDS, unexpected winners, unexpected All-Staters, clutch performers in the final mile. But an easy one to start things off – PROJECTIONS vs. the cold-hearted truth of REALITY.
I didn’t have time (frankly, no clue how I managed time the past two weeks) to write up an expected outcomes post as I did last year. But if you add up the percentages of the 1st place teams, you get an expectation of 5.3 correct. The podium teams, 11.8 correct. The top-10 teams, 67.3 correct. In reality, 5 1st place teams were right (good), 15 podium teams were right (too high), and 68 top-10 teams were right (can’t get much better than that).
The projected range brings in anything but the outliers, the middle 95% of the places a team could get. The expectation is then that those would be correct on 95% of the teams. They were correct on 94.9% of the teams.
Another metric I track is the overall place difference between the projections and reality. 2024’s was the lowest ever at 2.06 places, these were sadly slightly higher at a 2.09 place difference.
The regional ones were pretty equal to last year, the state projections much improved. The main difference in the projections from 2024 to 2025 were the meets I used to generate the simulations. 2024’s version used the upper 2/3 of a runner’s resume with zero regard for which race those came from. 2025’s version used the entire resume, but filtered out for meets of significance (conference finals, weekend invites, regionals). Each version weighed for recency, meet size, and competitiveness. There will always be tweaks, but going forward, the methodology will likely be more similar to this year’s process.
Once again, horrible news for you folk. These are getting even more predictive, so I’ll be around in 2026.
There will be more to come after MITCA. Gotta hold off on those ratings, I want that competitive edge!
Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?
Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
Tanner Time
Tanner Rating
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev.
15:30
210
15:45
205
16:00
200
16:15
195
16:30
190
200
7.91
MIXCSR Time
MIXCSR Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev.
16:09
197
16:12
196
16:15
195
16:18
194
16:21
193
195
1.58
Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
Race
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev
Tanner Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev
MIXCSR Rating
1
200
7.9
202.1
195
1.6
195.6
2
200
7.9
196.2
195
1.6
194.1
3
200
7.9
190.0
195
1.6
199.2
4
200
7.9
193.4
195
1.6
192.5
5
200
7.9
206.8
195
1.6
195.7
6
200
7.9
201.8
195
1.6
196.1
7
200
7.9
171.6
195
1.6
194.9
8
200
7.9
189.2
195
1.6
195.9
9
200
7.9
205.5
195
1.6
197.0
10
200
7.9
203.8
195
1.6
192.6
11
200
7.9
192.3
195
1.6
196.5
12
200
7.9
196.9
195
1.6
196.4
13
200
7.9
198.5
195
1.6
195.6
14
200
7.9
203.2
195
1.6
194.1
15
200
7.9
193.9
195
1.6
192.6
16
200
7.9
199.3
195
1.6
193.2
17
200
7.9
208.7
195
1.6
194.2
18
200
7.9
213.7
195
1.6
194.6
19
200
7.9
212.6
195
1.6
197.1
20
200
7.9
206.3
195
1.6
193.9
I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:
Projected Place – sorted from lowest average score to highest average score Average Score – the average score across all the simulated races Place Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2 Top-Ten % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10
GIRLS TEAM
Let’s give a shoutout to Romeo. It truly has been a magical few years over in the upper reaches of Macomb County. Back-to-back state titles, a great showing in Oregon, even a runner-up finish in 2022. This fall, the MAC Red title AGAIN, the Macomb County title AGAIN, and the Region 9 title AGAIN. Guaresimo, Clor, Goodsell, Hrabovsky, Rosbolt – these five have sure presided over some memorable years. One final run together in the red n’ white uniforms, that should be special.
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Place Range
1
Ann Arbor Pioneer
87
1st-2nd
2
Romeo
147
1st-4th
3
Brighton
201
2nd-8th
4
Holland West Ottawa
212
2nd-8th
5
Hudsonville
240
3rd-10th
6
Northville
246
3rd-11th
7
Jenison
277
3rd-13th
8
Traverse City West
284
4th-14th
9
Ann Arbor Skyline
304
4th-16th
10
Rockford
309
4th-15th
11
Hartland
327
6th-17th
12
Okemos
330
6th-18th
13
Rochester Adams
350
9th-18th
14
Portage Central
363
9th-19th
15
Saline
369
6th-21st
16
Traverse City Central
392
9th-22nd
17
Rochester
392
11th-21st
18
Novi
405
11th-22nd
19
Zeeland East
437
12th-24th
20
Woodhaven Brownstown
451
15th-24th
21
Utica
454
13th-25th
22
Macomb Dakota
500
17th-26th
23
White Lake Lakeland
526
20th-26th
24
Clarkston
533
19th-27th
25
Ann Arbor Huron
549
20th-27th
26
Livonia Churchill
565
21st-27th
27
Salem
673
25th-27th
In any other year, the Bulldogs would be the Division 1 favorite, except 2025. Ann Arbor Pioneer has assembled one of the better teams in the country. They’re led by one of the better runners in the country, Natasza Dudek. Her followers have ripped fast times, three other girls busting through into the 17’s. They’ve added 11th graders, freshmen, each addition bringing forth more quickness. The Pioneers are so deep that you could likely assemble their JV squad and be a favorite to make it out of most regionals. Thus, they are the Division 1 favorite, but I still can’t discount the championship mettle of Romeo.
Projected
Team
Win %
Podium %
Top-Ten %
1
Ann Arbor Pioneer
95
95+
95+
2
Romeo
5
79
95+
3
Brighton
14
95+
4
Holland West Ottawa
5
95+
5
Hudsonville
95+
6
Northville
91
7
Jenison
77
8
Traverse City West
76
9
Ann Arbor Skyline
60
10
Rockford
53
11
Hartland
37
12
Okemos
39
13
Rochester Adams
17
14
Portage Central
12
15
Saline
21
16
Traverse City Central
10
17
Rochester
18
Novi
19
Zeeland East
20
Woodhaven Brownstown
21
Utica
22
Macomb Dakota
23
White Lake Lakeland
24
Clarkston
25
Ann Arbor Huron
26
Livonia Churchill
27
Salem
Two programs one also can’t discount are Holland West Ottawa and Brighton. The Panthers and Bulldogs are seemingly always present in the top-ten lists and as podium contenders. Each has the possibility of bringing home a trophy. West Ottawa is carried by their strength through four, that quad of quickness sprinting through the Otsego course with times under 18:30. Brighton is a tad weaker through four, but picks up places from their 5th spot, such as DeWitt Regional where all five scorers were right near 19-flat or faster.
BOYS TEAM
Winning once is hard enough, three years in a row is a dynasty. In Michigan history, plenty of programs have a three-year streak. Only a few extend it beyond three. If my quick research is correct, only three boys’ teams have done so: Dexter from 2002-2006, Charlevoix from 1987-1991, and Dearborn from 1927-1930. For Northville, a chance at history awaits, but the competition is gonna make it tough.
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Place Range
1
Northville
156
1st-7th
2
Ann Arbor Pioneer
173
1st-7th
3
Kalamazoo Central
204
1st-11th
4
Midland
225
2nd-10th
5
Lowell
231
1st-13th
6
Brighton
240
2nd-12th
7
Grand Ledge
263
2nd-15th
8
Highland-Milford
275
1st-15th
9
Clarkston
293
4th-16th
10
Ann Arbor Skyline
311
3rd-18th
11
Caledonia
320
3rd-19th
12
Traverse City West
322
4th-19th
13
Jenison
346
8th-19th
14
Romeo
351
7th-19th
15
Salem
354
7th-20th
16
Saline
355
6th-21st
17
Plymouth
393
8th-23rd
18
Woodhaven Brownstown
410
10th-23rd
19
Grand Haven
437
10th-26th
20
Rochester
463
15th-25th
21
Detroit Catholic Central
486
15th-26th
22
Livonia Churchill
506
17th-26th
23
Macomb Dakota
513
16th-27th
24
Hudsonville
519
18th-27th
25
White Lake Lakeland
519
17th-27th
26
Oxford
575
20th-27th
27
Utica Eisenhower
633
23rd-27th
Ann Arbor Pioneer will likely provide the stiffest test, but Kalamazoo Central and Lowell both have runners with the ability to make up a state title squad. At Portage, that stiffest test came to fruition, as the Pioneers dominated up front, only needing to score three. Then their depth held serve, which led to a runaway victory. The Mustangs were missing runners from their lineup, but there are no asterisks in cross country, you win or lose with the toes that touch the line. BothKC and Lowell hung with the top-two teams through their 3rd-4th runners, but didn’t have the depth needed in the oppressive conditions. Both squads have reason for optimism, as the Giants were without Colby Bartells, who just laid down a 16:24 personal best at Region 3. The Red Arrows didn’t get the greatest race from Cody Bromley, but Bromley has returned with strong efforts, three straight races in the mid-16’s.
The formulas for each of these teams are strikingly similar: a very strong top-2, then who has the best next three? Up front, Ann Arbor Pioneer will almost assuredly have the lowest score. Kamari Ronfeldt and Beckett Crooks are among the top-5, perhaps even the top-3 runners in the entire state. The projections then have Northville, Kalamazoo Central, followed by Lowell.
The depth will decide the fate of who hoists trophies. Lowell, Pioneer, and Northville all seem equal at their 5th spot. Midland, who I haven’t mentioned, likely has the strongest depth in the field (and they’re consistent, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chemics slide onto the podium with their constant steady efforts). Northville has a bit more to work with, as Manny Coates and Colton Blackburn could each step up.
Projected
Team
Win %
Podium %
Top-Ten %
1
Northville
46
63
95+
2
Ann Arbor Pioneer
20
50
95+
3
Kalamazoo Central
14
28
94
4
Midland
9
95+
5
Lowell
10
17
83
6
Brighton
8
88
7
Grand Ledge
5
75
8
Highland-Milford
6
65
9
Clarkston
55
10
Ann Arbor Skyline
47
11
Caledonia
39
12
Traverse City West
41
13
Jenison
20
14
Romeo
23
15
Salem
23
16
Saline
28
17
Plymouth
14
18
Woodhaven Brownstown
5
19
Grand Haven
6
20
Rochester
21
Detroit Catholic Central
22
Livonia Churchill
23
Macomb Dakota
24
Hudsonville
25
White Lake Lakeland
26
Oxford
27
Utica Eisenhower
To make a long story short, if the teams are evenly matched later in the field, I’d expect Pioneer to prevail. In the case that the Northville/Lowell/KC depth has moved ahead of Pioneer’s, either of the three can win. Northville has more to work with than the latter two teams. And a bit of experience on their side.
GIRLS INDIVIDUAL
Even her non-descript races are noteworthy. They’re all wins. But some are just 16:47 wins in the SEC Championship. Or 16:16 jaunts through Lake Erie. Nevermind, they’re all impressive and all indicative of one of the better runners we’ve seen roll through these Michigan courses. Natasza Dudek has continued her upward track through her descending times. She entered the season as the top returner from the 2024 race and from a track season where she earned top-4 spots in the D1 1600m & 3200m, to go along with a runner-up finish in the New Balance 5000m.
She’s started her sophomore year on another level, hovering around the 17’s early (a minute faster than comparable races from 2024), before unleashing a 16:29 at Jackson. Unsatisfied with a mid-16 effort, a week later she was contending with an improbable barrier, finally crossing the Otsego line in 16:11. She gapped the field in the Portage heat by over 35 seconds. Each test has brought forth results of time and major margins.
Beyond Dudek, this field is deep and full of youth. With optimal conditions, I can see scenarios where up to 20 girls are sub-18.
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
1
10
Natasza Dudek
Ann Arbor Pioneer
2
10
Rachel Smith
Okemos
3
11
Annie Hrabovsky
Romeo
4
10
Sienna Klemmer
Ann Arbor Pioneer
5
10
Emilia Garces
Midland Dow
6
11
El McMahan
Rochester Adams
7
11
Maddie Lindley
Holly
8
11
Cassie Karasinski
Hudsonville
9
9
Keira Von Blon
Ann Arbor Pioneer
10
11
Tessa Mascari
Traverse City West
11
12
Natalia Guaresimo
Romeo
12
10
Adalyn Raab
Zeeland East
13
12
Lydia LaMarra
Brighton
14
12
Lilah Yoder
Forest Hills Central
15
12
Ella Goodsell
Romeo
16
9
Alexandra Scappaticci
Northville
17
10
Ainsley Kelm
Portage Northern
18
12
Ava Porras
Holland West Ottawa
19
12
Hana Boggess
Ann Arbor Pioneer
20
9
Grace Snyder
Hudsonville
21
11
Collette Wierks
Holland West Ottawa
22
11
Paige McMeans
Jenison
23
12
Ella Abraham
Rochester
24
12
October Harns
Okemos
25
10
Savannah Staton
Saline
26
12
Elliana Neuer
Hartland
27
12
Leah Corby
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
28
12
Siene Muraszewski
Utica
29
9
Jessica Soldan
Rochester Adams
30
11
Daisy Cox
Rockford
31
9
Kaitlyn Berg
Midland
32
12
Aviana Skinner
Grand Ledge
33
10
Ella Lorenz
Brighton
34
11
Katelynn Egli
Novi
35
11
Lucia Lachapelle
Northville
36
12
Olivia Stacy
Portage Northern
37
10
Morgan Sanders
Rockford
38
9
Maribelle Kofahl
Ann Arbor Huron
39
10
Avery Scott
Portage Central
40
10
Mary Dolbow
Holland West Ottawa
41
12
Ava Lawrence
East Kentwood
42
10
Charlotte Jones
Rochester
43
12
Gracelin Martin
Greenville
44
10
Lucia Llanes
Ann Arbor Skyline
45
9
Giada Mills
Beverly Hills Groves
46
10
Gracie Carlisle
Portage Central
47
11
Chloe Purwin
Hudsonville
48
10
Madeline Aleisa
Jenison
49
12
Lilli Schlack
Saline
50
11
Ava Goodman
Hartland
51
9
Grace Meyers
Bay City Western
52
12
Juliet Lewis
Brighton
53
12
Emmie Clor
Romeo
54
9
Abigail Deering
Rochester Adams
55
11
Lyla Dowling
Holland West Ottawa
56
9
Lexie Snyder
Hudsonville
57
11
Lizzie Wernimont
Ann Arbor Pioneer
58
12
Abby Veit
Traverse City West
59
12
Leena Shelgikar
Ann Arbor Huron
60
10
Julia Bambach
Holly
61
9
Hailey Sieler
Forest Hills Central
62
11
Becca Van Lent
Ann Arbor Skyline
63
9
Cecelia Jacobson
Traverse City Central
64
12
Audrey Hamilton
Troy
65
9
Audrey Grosteffon
Temperance Bedford
66
10
Caralyn Elkins
Zeeland West
67
12
Courtney Lince
Brighton
68
12
Mackenzie Dicken
Plymouth
69
12
Payton Lamb
Traverse City West
70
11
Nina Moore
Ann Arbor Pioneer
71
10
Alexandra Green
Birmingham Seaholm
72
11
Isla Tharp
Ann Arbor Skyline
73
11
Madeleine Hengeveld
Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills
74
11
Maya Pletzer
White Lake Lakeland
75
10
Paige Rohda
Berkley
76
10
Jillian Lewakowski
Rockford
77
12
Cianah Budnik-Ramos
Grand Haven
78
10
Charley McKay
Woodhaven Brownstown
79
11
Reese Rosbolt
Romeo
80
12
Selena White
Brighton
81
10
Jaclyn Charbauski
Forest Hills Northern
82
12
Annabelle Beloiu
Northville
83
10
Lila Edison
Ann Arbor Skyline
84
11
Alice Foley
Fraser
85
10
Gabriella Mercier
Macomb Dakota
86
12
Willa Prinsen
Forest Hills Northern
87
10
Ruby Petee
Mason
88
12
Kierra Magner
Farmington
89
12
Samantha Langolf
Port Huron Northern
90
10
Adelynn Turck
Saline
91
12
Sophia Nunnery
Hartland
92
10
Jorga Wooledge
Mason
93
11
Katelyn Parrish
Farmington
94
10
Emily Truszkowski
Traverse City Central
95
9
Brynn Somers
Northville
96
9
Emma Storey
Jenison
97
12
Rianna Radulescu
Livonia Churchill
98
9
Laura Forsyth
Ann Arbor Pioneer
99
12
Lidia Clancy
Macomb Dakota
100
10
Kelly Comfort
Traverse City Central
The girls All-State race is a bit more tightly wound than others on the day, with 50 girls in legitimate running for a chance to get on stage.
BOYS INDIVIDUAL
The boys’ field is a little older, but not by much. The same prediction stands. Before 2023 (Thomas Westphal and Seth Norder) and 2024 (Jack Bidwell and TJ Hansen), it was rare for two boys to drop under 15:00 in the same State Final race. In 2025, that possibility exists again. Both Beckett Crooks and Kamari Ronfeldt have done so in multiple races this year. There are candidates to join the two from all across the D1 landscape – Andrew Wright, Kyle O’Rourke, Jack MacGregor, Aiden Pengelly, Caden Livermore, amongst a few others.
Ronfeldt and Crooks are probably the favorites, each with legitimate arguments. Crooks has the racing savvy and winning experience, conquering this spring’s 3200m with a stunning final lap. Ronfeldt owns the fastest time of the season and the most impressive performance, his 14:50, 27-second romp over the Portage field during the hottest time of the day.
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
1
11
Kamari Ronfeldt
Ann Arbor Pioneer
2
12
Beckett Crooks
Ann Arbor Pioneer
3
11
Caden Livermore
Grandville
4
11
Jack MacGregor
Howell
5
12
Kyle O’Rourke
Highland-Milford
6
12
Ian Morgan
Okemos
7
11
Brandon Cloud
Northville
8
11
Luka Hammond
Grand Haven
9
11
Justin Johnson
East Kentwood
10
12
Aiden Pengelly
Canton
11
12
Benjamin Hartigan
Northville
12
12
Jackson Lam
Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
13
11
Samuel Baker
Kalamazoo Central
14
11
Marshall Huhn
Lowell
15
12
Andrew Wright
Kalamazoo Central
16
11
Coen Hill
Dexter
17
12
David Dubeck
Clarkston
18
11
Austin Mercado
Salem
19
12
Lucas LaPointe
Plymouth
20
10
Todd Tobin
Highland-Milford
21
11
Matii Tarekegn
East Kentwood
22
12
Zach Wyderko
Brighton
23
9
Avi Elabed
Lowell
24
11
Jacob Szalay
Saline
25
9
Tommy McCormick
Grand Blanc
26
10
Mourad Algahmi
Dearborn Fordson
27
12
Caleb Keller
Traverse City Central
28
10
Xavier Solgot
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
29
12
Owen Fisher
Mattawan
30
12
Noah Johnston
Caledonia
31
12
Ryan Barnes
Clarkston
32
12
Max Houvener
Lake Orion
33
12
Thomas DeJesus
Ann Arbor Pioneer
34
12
Ty Billings
Kalamazoo Central
35
10
Rylen Richey
Grand Ledge
36
12
Nathaniel Linden
Troy Athens
37
11
Blake Kulesza
Brighton
38
12
Ethan Hertza
Northville
39
10
Alexander Allen
Alpena
40
11
Cameron Cochran
Midland
41
11
Broden Ladd
Holly
42
10
Brady Glon
Detroit Catholic Central
43
12
Cooper Byrne
Lowell
44
11
Logan Gessford
Midland
45
10
Bennett Snapper
Caledonia
46
12
Marcel Stork
Mattawan
47
12
Jack Steen
Traverse City Central
48
12
Dylan Pascoe
Rochester
49
12
Benjamin Rottier
Grand Ledge
50
12
Evan Owczarek
Rochester
51
12
Pierce Scheffler
Woodhaven Brownstown
52
10
Karson Lewis
Battle Creek Lakeview
53
12
Liam Preisser
East Lansing
54
10
Nikhil Ball
South Lyon East
55
12
Aron Gal
Grand Haven
56
12
Hayden Murray
Traverse City West
57
12
Logan Bellinger
Midland
58
12
Hudson Wojtkowicz
Livonia Churchill
59
11
Trevor Baptist
Novi
60
12
Adrian Abbott-Wallace
Holt
61
12
Owen Perry
Romeo
62
12
Luke James
Midland
63
11
Liam Wierzba
Traverse City West
64
10
Rem Piper
Holt
65
12
Brennan Larusso
Saline
66
11
Josiah Derksen
Rockford
67
12
Harper Wesley
Utica
68
12
Ryan Stojov
Northville
69
11
Bradley Smies
Hudsonville
70
12
Theo Sacks Thomas
Ann Arbor Pioneer
71
12
Finn Gammerath
Walled Lake Northern
72
11
Caelan Marsh
Grand Ledge
73
12
Andrew Worsley
Midland
74
10
Chase Sherman
Jenison
75
12
Gannon Wheeler
Highland-Milford
76
12
Gavin Wilkins
Rochester Adams
77
12
Jacob McDaniel
Grandville
78
12
Luke Allen
Romeo
79
12
Gavin Johns
White Lake Lakeland
80
10
Elliot King
Midland
81
11
Nolan Lounds
Grand Ledge
82
12
Nolan Wenglikowski
Jenison
83
10
Carter Cooke
Jenison
84
11
Matthew Guikema
Ann Arbor Skyline
85
12
Alex McKennon
Grand Ledge
86
10
Finn-Frost Grayson
Traverse City West
87
12
Noah Linstrom
Davison
88
12
Bruno Cifaldi
Ann Arbor Skyline
89
10
Roman Stilwell
Ann Arbor Skyline
90
10
Elijah Demlow
Battle Creek Lakeview
91
10
Oscar Wordell
Rochester Adams
92
12
Evan Cummings
Brighton
93
12
Alex Vazquez
Woodhaven Brownstown
94
10
Lucas Brumo
Livonia Stevenson
95
11
Noah Amori
Wyandotte Roosevelt
96
11
Jack Hanner
Salem
97
10
Martin Gehrke
Ann Arbor Skyline
98
12
Adrian Clarke
Plymouth
99
11
Samuel Batt
Salem
100
12
Gavin Tisch
Detroit Catholic Central
This D1 field is almost as high in variance as the D2 one – approximately 70 boys who could earn a medal.
I’m exhausted. Many of these posts are chart-driven, so I think of it like a scientific textbook. But over 500,000 words have made their way onto the site this year (track, summer, XC), which would add up to about a 2000 page book. The stories have been well-written. Let’s just get out there and race. See you tomorrow!
Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?
Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
Tanner Time
Tanner Rating
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev.
15:30
210
15:45
205
16:00
200
16:15
195
16:30
190
200
7.91
MIXCSR Time
MIXCSR Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev.
16:09
197
16:12
196
16:15
195
16:18
194
16:21
193
195
1.58
Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
Race
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev
Tanner Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev
MIXCSR Rating
1
200
7.9
202.1
195
1.6
195.6
2
200
7.9
196.2
195
1.6
194.1
3
200
7.9
190.0
195
1.6
199.2
4
200
7.9
193.4
195
1.6
192.5
5
200
7.9
206.8
195
1.6
195.7
6
200
7.9
201.8
195
1.6
196.1
7
200
7.9
171.6
195
1.6
194.9
8
200
7.9
189.2
195
1.6
195.9
9
200
7.9
205.5
195
1.6
197.0
10
200
7.9
203.8
195
1.6
192.6
11
200
7.9
192.3
195
1.6
196.5
12
200
7.9
196.9
195
1.6
196.4
13
200
7.9
198.5
195
1.6
195.6
14
200
7.9
203.2
195
1.6
194.1
15
200
7.9
193.9
195
1.6
192.6
16
200
7.9
199.3
195
1.6
193.2
17
200
7.9
208.7
195
1.6
194.2
18
200
7.9
213.7
195
1.6
194.6
19
200
7.9
212.6
195
1.6
197.1
20
200
7.9
206.3
195
1.6
193.9
I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:
Projected Place – sorted from lowest average score to highest average score Average Score – the average score across all the simulated races Place Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2 Top-Ten % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10
GIRLS TEAM
Every few years, a new generation of girls comes to the forefront in Otsego, bringing forth the possibility of taking hardware home. In the mid-2010’s, the Bulldogs took home a pair of state titles. A few years later, their 2019 squad had a day at the Finals, placing 3rd. Their frontrunner, Emma Hoffman, surely remembers her runner-up finish from her freshman year, one that led Otsego to another state title. Emma has now gone through the gauntlet and improved mightily, leading once again, this time with a pack of freshmen tailing.
The Bulldogs entered the season as the #1 projected team and they’ve not disappointed. The Bulldogs once again won in the Wolverine Conference, their streak now lasting from 2013-2025. Portage, Regionals, their home invite, and a trek to Minnesota – all wins.
Otsego is one of a strong west side tradition. Of the past 25 team champions, 21 hail from the west coast, Grand Rapids area and below. Present in contention for the podium and the win are a host of other area schools: Holland Christian, Grand Rapids Christian, and Grand Rapids South Christian.
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Place Range
1
Otsego
108
1st-3rd
2
Holland Christian
136
1st-4th
3
Grand Rapids Christian
158
1st-5th
4
Grand Rapids South Christian
190
2nd-6th
5
Cadillac
268
4th-12th
6
Goodrich
285
4th-13th
7
Coopersville
293
5th-13th
8
East Grand Rapids
298
5th-13th
9
Pinckney
299
5th-13th
10
Linden
340
5th-17th
11
Spring Lake
340
5th-16th
12
Holland
358
5th-19th
13
DeWitt
363
6th-18th
14
Frankenmuth
374
7th-19th
15
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
386
9th-19th
16
St. Joseph
390
10th-19th
17
Freeland
431
11th-24th
18
Shepherd
469
13th-26th
19
Fremont
474
14th-26th
20
Macomb Lutheran North
493
17th-27th
21
Bloomfield Hills Marian
495
16th-26th
22
Sturgis
506
16th-26th
23
Adrian
510
17th-25th
24
Charlotte
517
18th-27th
25
Marysville
547
26th-28th
26
New Boston Huron
553
17th-26th
27
Williamston
635
19th-27th
28
Yale
708
25th-28th
These squads in close proximity, you get many instances of common competitions. A few are fairly recent – Bulldog, Portage, and Region 12. The order of the first two meetups was the same – Otsego in front, Holland Christian, Grand Rapids Christian, then Grand Rapids South Christian. Gaps were found between the former two and the latter two. At Portage, Otsego had it all covered, bringing in the lowest stick and the best 5th. Holland Christian trailed at nearly every spot, though the margins were as small as you could get. South Christian hung right behind GRC and then at Region 12, moved ahead.
The projections follow this pattern, although they take into account the rest of the season, especially what has occurred throughout the rest of October.
Projected
Team
Win %
Podium %
Top-Ten %
1
Otsego
73
93
95+
2
Holland Christian
18
68
95+
3
Grand Rapids Christian
8
33
95+
4
Grand Rapids South Christian
6
95+
5
Cadillac
92
6
Goodrich
82
7
Coopersville
79
8
East Grand Rapids
77
9
Pinckney
76
10
Linden
43
11
Spring Lake
39
12
Holland
32
13
DeWitt
26
14
Frankenmuth
19
15
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
14
16
St. Joseph
10
17
Freeland
7
18
Shepherd
19
Fremont
20
Macomb Lutheran North
21
Bloomfield Hills Marian
22
Sturgis
23
Adrian
24
Charlotte
25
Marysville
26
New Boston Huron
27
Williamston
28
Yale
The three posed questions:
Who has the best fifth?
Most likely Otsego, with upperclasswomen leadership potentially owning those spots. From Portage, it was Rebekah Stachura owning the final scoring spot. Or it could be Skylar Mejeur. Each of the two girls has been in the mid-19’s a bunch this fall.
Who has the best depth?
Holland Christian, followed by Otsego and Grand Rapids Christian. Both the Maroons and Eagles have had seven girls find their way under 19:30. The Bulldogs trail closely behind, with a Taylee Fox firing off PR after PR of late.
Who steers clear of the bubble?
The projections think there will be a high concentration of girls with ratings between 110-120, which I believe will be 19:45-20:15. The projected top-three should have most of their girls ahead of this, with Grand Rapids South Christian perhaps having a few in the mix. Which leads to a bit more certainty from the top-three, but also a Sailor upset if their depth continues what they did at Region 12.
BOYS TEAM
At various points in the past three years, we’ve seen the main contenders make their rise. From East Grand Rapids and Alma, the signs were present a few years back. Continuing in the Pioneer tradition, yet starting off with a stunner, the ’22 East Grand Rapids squad winning the title as an underdog. That team featured a young Jonah Workman, new to the high school scene, but racing as if he’d been here for years. Alma was a bit less known and wasn’t even thought to bring a team to those State Finals. But a few impactful freshmen ensured a spot from a tough Region 15, allowing those 9th grade Panthers to gain valuable experience that they’ve used over the past few seasons.
Flint Powers Catholic has been a late comer, the Chargers only qualifying a full team once from 2022-2024. The 2023 squad did and the current contenders feature three of those boys. From last fall to now, the Chargers have improved the most out of any team in D2, perhaps any team in the state. Four boys were sub-4:40 and sub-10:05 in track. Their 4×8 threw down a 7:53, good for 5th in D2. That spring was a major factor in their #4 pre-season ranking.
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Place Range
1
Flint Powers Catholic
128
1st-4th
2
East Grand Rapids
138
1st-4th
3
Alma
184
1st-7th
4
Parma Western
244
2nd-11th
5
Grand Rapids Christian
250
2nd-11th
6
Holland Christian
268
3rd-12th
7
Forest Hills Eastern
299
3rd-16th
8
Shepherd
309
4th-16th
9
Allendale
319
5th-15th
10
Fenton
331
5th-18th
11
Otsego
343
5th-19th
12
Pinckney
347
6th-20th
13
DeWitt
375
7th-21st
14
Chelsea
384
8th-21st
15
Adrian
391
8th-22nd
16
Cedar Springs
400
7th-24th
17
Three Rivers
405
7th-25th
18
Richland Gull Lake
412
9th-24th
19
Frankenmuth
413
8th-23rd
20
Petoskey
422
10th-24th
21
Spring Lake
435
10th-25th
22
Detroit Country Day
458
10th-26th
23
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
477
15th-26th
24
Macomb Lutheran North
490
16th-26th
25
Yale
584
21st-27th
26
St. Clair
586
22nd-27th
27
Coopersville
629
23rd-27th
The three squads occupied a great chunk of the pre-season rankings. Powers continued on their path upward, Alma and East Grand Rapids each ran at a high level before a mid-season meeting at Portage Bluejay (not Portage, that’s rare!). Michigan’s favorite course hosted all three squads in a mini state preview. The Pioneers were missing Workman, although as a D2 contender, he’s easy to slot into the standings. Even in his absence, Flint Powers would’ve won the battle of the trio. The Charger depth was key, 16:15 and 16:24 from the final two scoring spots, around a 20 sec. gap on comparable spots from EGR and 35 sec. before the Panthers.
But one thing a performance like that does is set a mark and make you the hunted. In the past month, East Grand Rapids has won at Portage, the OK White, and Region 12. Alma has won the TVC, placed 2nd at Greater Lansing, and overwhelmed the Region 14 competition.
Projected
Team
Win %
Podium %
Top-Ten %
1
Flint Powers Catholic
50
85
95+
2
East Grand Rapids
37
74
95+
3
Alma
9
27
95+
4
Parma Western
6
94
5
Grand Rapids Christian
5
89
6
Holland Christian
89
7
Forest Hills Eastern
66
8
Shepherd
62
9
Allendale
58
10
Fenton
48
11
Otsego
37
12
Pinckney
36
13
DeWitt
18
14
Chelsea
13
15
Adrian
13
16
Cedar Springs
19
17
Three Rivers
19
18
Richland Gull Lake
11
19
Frankenmuth
9
20
Petoskey
5
21
Spring Lake
7
22
Detroit Country Day
6
23
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
24
Macomb Lutheran North
25
Yale
26
St. Clair
27
Coopersville
The three posed questions:
Who has the best 5th man?
At this point, I think it has to be Flint Powers, with Bluejay as the main piece of evidence.
Who has the best depth?
I’m going with East Grand Rapids. Both Sam Hillary and Thomas Fisher have capabilities of pushing toward the mid-16’s, hitting 16:22 and 16:42 at the OK White Championship.
Who steers clear of the bubble?
One main pack seems like it’ll exist between 16:45-17:10ish and another could be ahead of it between 16:20-16:35ish. These are two spots where athletes may coagulate. Seemingly most entrenched in either are Alma and Flint Powers. East Grand Rapids has athletes either ahead or between the two. Thus, you could see a little more variability with the Panthers and Chargers, a few seconds equaling many points. Every point matters.
GIRLS INDIVIDUAL
First, I must mention Ava Schafer. The St. Johns Redwing is the defending champ. I’ve always praised her racing savvy and it appears that her junior has featured many of her same positive characteristics. She’s won five of her seven races, and again slipped into the 17’s with a 17:50 at John Bruder. Last year proved that her best material comes during championship season, PRs coming here and at MITCA. I wouldn’t be shocked if another late-season time descent occurs.
By the numbers and with the results, Emma Hoffman and Katie Berkshire have surged to the front of the D2 standings. Berkshire hasn’t even been ABOVE 18:00 this fall, racing and winning with her typical vigor. She’s unbeaten on the year, with wins coming at Holly (17:37), Bluejay (16:58), and at Region 10 (16:32).
That 16:32 ranks 2nd in Division 2. In any year other 2023, that would’ve been the best time in Michigan. I know XC isn’t all about time, because with Emma Hoffman occupying the 2nd fastest slot, winning is of importance too. The Bulldog senior has won a ton over the past two years. Back-to-back victories at home, conference, and regional action. A dominant Portage performance. An impressive D2 gold track double. When given the opportunity to rip it this fall, she has, lowering her Otsego record even further, all the way down to 16:20.
Watching these two compete will be a worthy post-Halloween treat.
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
1
12
Emma Hoffman
Otsego
2
12
Katie Berkshire
Gaylord
3
11
Jaelyn Ray
Pinckney
4
10
Avery Engbers
Holland Christian
5
11
Ava Schafer
St. Johns
6
12
Natalie Foltz
Frankenmuth
7
11
Mia May
Sparta
8
11
Johanna Mulder
Holland
9
11
Lane Isom
Richland Gull Lake
10
9
Eliza Schwass
Ludington
11
11
Caroline Randall
Hastings
12
11
Ayda Skeels
Adrian
13
12
Marie Gates
Hudsonville Unity Christian
14
12
Chloe Rinzema
Grand Rapids South Christian
15
11
Clara Kaczor
Freeland
16
10
Oakley Osterhart
Coopersville
17
11
Annabelle Lowman
Ludington
18
10
Kayla Shellenbarger
Goodrich
19
10
Tiffany DeMaagd
Grand Rapids South Christian
20
12
Lilah Poel
Grand Rapids Christian
21
12
Julia Garcia
Pinckney
22
11
Olivia Weiss
Holland
23
10
Anneliese Passchier
East Grand Rapids
24
9
Alayna Verhage
Otsego
25
10
Mai Nguyen
Plainwell
26
11
Alivia Ottinger
Goodrich
27
12
Elise Barden
Frankenmuth
28
11
Addison Josephson
Linden
29
10
Ana Lovell
Lake Fenton
30
10
Remie Ellis
Eaton Rapids
31
11
Eliana Stob
Holland Christian
32
12
Brooklynn Brown
Cadillac
33
9
Addelyn Sabatke
Otsego
34
12
Alexis Kotkowicz
Spring Lake
35
11
Ella McInerney
Cadillac
36
9
Adelyn Verhage
Otsego
37
11
Zoe Hoekstra
Grand Rapids Christian
38
10
Madison Petty
Adrian
39
12
Ellie Scholma
Grand Rapids Christian
40
11
Adeline Armstrong
East Grand Rapids
41
12
Miriam Kloha
St. Johns
42
10
Annika Stob
Holland Christian
43
11
Ellery Lampen
Holland Christian
44
12
Linnea Paige
Fremont
45
10
Addison Bixler
Coopersville
46
9
Vittoria Perucchetti
St. Joseph
47
12
Layla Geurink
Holland Christian
48
12
Beatrice Perucchetti
St. Joseph
49
11
Skylar Mejeur
Otsego
50
9
Hailey Kuhn
Cadillac
51
11
Monica Lynn
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
52
12
Jillian Clason
Forest Hills Eastern
53
11
Ahna Woltjer
Grand Rapids West Mich. Aviation
54
10
Audrey Kline
St. Joseph
55
9
Lily VanEyk
Grand Rapids South Christian
56
11
Samantha Whitlam
Macomb Lutheran North
57
10
Eva Lindstrom
Grand Rapids Christian
58
11
Lucy Waalkes
Grand Rapids Christian
59
9
Breslyn Klein
Coopersville
60
12
Annika TerBeek
Grand Rapids Christian
61
11
Mackenzie Huizenga
Holland Christian
62
11
Bridget Fidkowski
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
63
12
Rebekah Stachura
Otsego
64
10
Abree VanDenBrink
Wayland Union
65
10
Danica Redes
Shepherd
66
12
Georgia Babcock
Edwardsburg
67
9
Lulu Park
Sturgis
68
10
Grace Leman
Edwardsburg
69
10
Abby Crandell
Owosso
70
10
Bridget Fullerton
Parma Western
71
11
Cora Parker
Spring Lake
72
11
Colette Charchut
Haslett
73
12
Avery Turk
New Boston Huron
74
11
Melody Meckstroth
Linden
75
11
Avery Silvas
Charlotte
76
10
Sophie Jones
Holland Christian
77
12
Samantha Brown
Clio
78
12
Tessa Hatt
Sturgis
79
10
Peyhton Beardsley
Fruitport
80
12
Nora Gerzema
Farmington Hills Mercy
81
9
Noelle Hulst
Grand Rapids South Christian
82
10
Chloe Mazza
Cadillac
83
10
Kaleigh Clark
Spring Lake
84
9
Taylee Fox
Otsego
85
9
Brooklyn Takagishi
DeWitt
86
11
Kylie Mausolf
Birch Run
87
10
Claire Miller
Monroe Jefferson
88
10
Aurora (Rory) Doepker
DeWitt
89
9
Jordane Falvey
Dearborn Divine Child
90
11
Sawyer Reagan
Allendale
91
10
Maggie Scholma
Grand Rapids Christian
92
10
Vivienne Conflitti
Forest Hills Eastern
93
10
Eastynn Charder
Pinckney
94
10
Lily Phillips
Forest Hills Eastern
95
12
Ava Pawlick
Petoskey
96
10
Addy Nesbitt
Cedar Springs
97
9
Isabelle Oostema
Grand Rapids South Christian
98
11
Lucy Conzelmann
Frankenmuth
99
10
Courtney Floeter
Linden
100
9
Claire Albrecht
Armada
The projections show a little less variability toward potential All-Staters, around 45 girls (not in the above order) with a fighter’s change.
BOYS INDIVIDUAL
A season on the sidelines, the fire must have burned deep. Although he raced unattached on many occasions, Robert Jazwinski never got the chance to make a return trip to MIS, never got a chance to prove his training during his sophomore season. During the 2025 fall, he’s more than verified his work. Undefeated on the year, yet he’s picked his spots for the supreme efforts. A 15:15 at Under the Lights announced his return. A 15:28 at Spartan was the fastest time of the day. And a 14:56 at Benzie was the fastest time of his life. The margin on Saturday will undoubtedly be smaller than previous meets, but there’s been nothing to prove that he’s not up for the challenge.
As stated prior, throughout his career, Jonah Workman has shown he’s up for the challenge. His freshman effort here was integral to the Pioneer title. Two years later, his 15:17 was a personal best and 5th place finish. This spring, he was 3rd in the D2 3200m. He’s demonstrated the wheels via a 14:58 at Sparta. A mid-season sickness prevented a true showdown at Portage, but gives motivation for revenge.
I should also mention a few seniors who have given much to the sport and will be present here:
Thomas Larson – hitting the mid-15’s in his past three races, including a Region 14 win.
Moises Salazar Jr. – 3x All-State and Lenawee County Champion.
Edison Lopeman – 8th here a year ago. Has been battling this year, showing hope with his effort these past few weeks.
Bryce Gross – in tandem with Lennox Naswell, but nonetheless impactful. 20th here last year with a personal best, one that he’s nearing towards in his past two races.
Ronnie Silveira – twice All-State here and holder of four consecutive sub-16’s.
And if you’re looking forward to 2027, a Gavin Katic/Lennox Naswell showdown. The two sophomores are closely-knit in residence, time, and age. Half a second separated the two at Greater Flint, one of many future battles from these exciting 10th graders.
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
1
11
Robert Jazwinski III
Whitehall
2
12
Jonah Workman
East Grand Rapids
3
10
Lennox Naswell
Flint Powers Catholic
4
10
Gavin Katic
Fenton
5
12
Thomas Larson
Alma
6
11
Ezekiel Baltierra
Alma
7
11
Mason Hill
Allendale
8
11
Mitchell Dunlap
Grand Rapids Catholic Central
9
12
Edison Lopeman
Parma Western
10
10
Micah Becker
East Grand Rapids
11
12
Ronnie Silveira
Allendale
12
12
Moises Salazar Jr.
Adrian
13
12
Bryce Gross
Flint Powers Catholic
14
12
Shephard Bower
Forest Hills Eastern
15
11
Caiden Caswell
Vicksburg
16
11
Bryce Cahoon
Shepherd
17
12
Aden Ashworth
Allendale
18
11
Cole McCraw
Pinckney
19
12
Vincent Pattison
Goodrich
20
11
Abraham McHugh
Marshall
21
12
Sean Ryan
Grand Rapids Christian
22
12
Asher Jager
Grand Rapids West Mich. Aviation
23
12
Jack Edison
East Grand Rapids
24
12
Jacob Stanislawski
Flat Rock
25
10
Ashton Fink
Grand Rapids Christian
26
10
Duncan Palmer
Williamston
27
12
Brett Magnus
Frankenmuth
28
12
Aiden Marple
DeWitt
29
12
Ben Verellen
Gladwin
30
11
Seth Randall
St. Joseph
31
9
Logan Cristian
Parma Western
32
12
Kenny Sheffer
Otsego
33
11
Owen Adams
Spring Lake
34
10
Ryan Rathsburg
Flint Powers Catholic
35
12
Charlie Brauer
Three Rivers
36
11
Seth Betzold
Essexville Garber
37
12
Henry Fredenberg
Chelsea
38
12
Caleb Carignan
Flint Powers Catholic
39
12
Cole Wisniewski
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
40
12
Tommy Beiter
Flint Powers Catholic
41
10
Jack Hincks
Detroit Country Day
42
10
Aiden Lambers
Holland
43
12
George Scupham
Edwardsburg
44
12
Owen Metzger
Sparta
45
11
Joshua Macri
Macomb Lutheran North
46
11
Omar Elbashir
Detroit Country Day
47
9
Jackson Pant
Richland Gull Lake
48
11
Christian Ayres
Battle Creek Harper Creek
49
12
Brodie Licata
Lake Fenton
50
11
Gabe Grierson
Ludington
51
9
Grant Lampen
Holland Christian
52
11
Christopher Vogt
Paw Paw
53
11
Nick Parker
Frankenmuth
54
12
Landon Gerritsma
Holland Christian
55
11
Ryan Good
Parma Western
56
11
Steven Zawacki
Forest Hills Eastern
57
10
Liam Dewitt
Haslett
58
11
Lucas Aardema
East Grand Rapids
59
12
Luke Dulecki
New Boston Huron
60
11
Wyeth Angus
Chelsea
61
10
Gerard Gilmour
Fenton
62
12
Thad VanderLaan
Grand Rapids South Christian
63
12
Aiden Weller
Cedar Springs
64
11
Gunnar Djerf
Otsego
65
12
Jacob Hylton
Ortonville Brandon
66
12
Matthew Carbajo
Grosse Ile
67
12
Zahar Rush
Petoskey
68
11
Reeve Oberman
Petoskey
69
12
Murphy Wagner
Saginaw Swan Valley
70
10
Rex Pumford
Whitehall
71
10
Teddy Weber
Williamston
72
12
Tyler VanKuiken
East Grand Rapids
73
12
Carson Wood
Sparta
74
12
Braylon Lenneman
DeWitt
75
10
Carson Wiersbe
St. Joseph
76
12
Sam Hillary
East Grand Rapids
77
11
Hunter Smith
Vicksburg
78
12
Raymond Herek
Williamston
79
12
Benjamin Morales
Sturgis
80
12
Hiro Nguyen
Plainwell
81
12
Luca Lebron
Alma
82
12
Reagan Ward
St. Johns
83
9
Parker Smith
Adrian
84
9
John Rochowiak
Pinckney
85
12
Andrew Feldpausch
Portland
86
10
Kash Moored
Hopkins
87
10
Samuel Johnson
Alma
88
10
Macen White
Holland Christian
89
12
Hunter Parsons
Whitehall
90
10
Grayson Michels
Forest Hills Eastern
91
11
Ben Verlin
Grand Rapids South Christian
92
11
Cole Coffman
Holland Christian
93
12
Micah Small
Grand Rapids Christian
94
12
Jonah Zietlow
Three Rivers
95
12
Cooper Gardner
Battle Creek Harper Creek
96
12
Jack Estelle
Hopkins
97
10
Andrew Nunning
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
98
10
Eli Morris
Tecumseh
99
10
Christian Pavlige
Fruitport
100
11
Jakin Whitney
Shepherd
This looks to be a wild one, with upwards of 75 boys (not in the above order – some boys are more consistent, others have had occasional bouts of greatness) in contention for the All-State spots.