Well, I ain’t got much in terms of words here. But the distance folks get all the attention for a good five months of the year, so they shouldn’t complain too much. For once, I get to deviate from the stats and offer my own predictions!
I’m saying the same thing I said in the previous previews. You’re awesome by making it here. If you’re not predicted to win, go win. If you’re not predicted to make All-State, find a way to get on that podium. If you’re predicted to win, show the state what you’ve got. Prove these right or wrong. I’ll be handing out awards for the D1 Finals. I look forward to hearing about how wrong these are 🙂
We’re in the finishing stretch! Sprints are all done, as are the stats. Distance, Relays, and Final Thoughts will be posted tomorrow. I’m gonna be a little more brief with the writeups, naming one thing I’m looking forward to from each gender in each division. There’s much more work that I want to finish before I leave on Friday.
Everyone should be familiar with my cross country work, but to summarize, the main philosophy I have there is twofold:
Different courses and conditions alter times
One race isn’t enough to analyze, one must look to the whole picture, with more weight toward recent performances
I’m bringing a bit of that same flavor to these previews. For most events, I’ll chart an athlete’s top-five marks and their performances in May. Those two stats should give a picture what an athlete can do when they truly bring it and should give a glimpse into their current condition. I’ll also look to common competitions, head-to-head matchups, which should control for various weather conditions that impact performance and show how athletes compare against one another when toeing the same line.
The difference between track and the cross country predictions is that for cross, I have formulae that take those factors and spit out projections. For these previews, I’ll have my own predictions that are based on my own eye test. I’ve been told that last year’s predictions both motivated and gave confidence and those are my intentions once again. I wish that everyone has the day of their life at the State Finals. It’d be quite boring if I was correct on everything.
With regard to the predictions, I’ll say the same thing for everyone. Unless you’re predicted first, I hope they’re wrong. If you’re not predicted to win, I hope you win. If you’re not predicted to be All-State, I hope you step on that podium. If you are in the top spot, go and prove it right.
DIVISION ONE
Can Kamryn Tatum become the next Kaila Jackson? I think so far, she’s satisfied being the first Kamryn Tatum. The West Bloomfield freshman is undefeated in the 100m, 200m, AND 400m. I’m not sure if it was a conscious decision by her and the West Bloomfield coaches, but smart move to head up to the 400m at Regionals. The 100m depth in D1 is astounding, the 400m a tad less so. She has an excellent chance of winning each of her two events.
Will Elizabeth Anderson be able to pull off the sprint triple? She nearly did last year, succumbing to Chaniya Madison in the 100m, then coming back to reign supreme in the 200m and 400m. She’s at the same level as the previous year, in fact even better in the 200m, breaking 25.00 for the first time in a Huron jersey. But again, she’ll have her stiffest test in the 100m, with Keyanna O’Tey exploding toward that 12.00 barrier. Regardless of what happens there, we know from the past that Elizabeth is strong enough to defend her longer sprint titles.
Does Devin Johnston grab her first state title? The senior was twice All-State last year, placing as high as 2nd in the 200m. This year, she’s undefeated in both short sprints, holding a dominating D3 lead in the 200m.
After a year absence, how does Megan Roberts leave her mark? The Colt senior has been All-State 8 (I believe, it’s hard counting that high) times over her illustrious career, but does not have an individual title. Over the past few weeks, she’s running the quickest 400’s of her life – three straight sub-60’s and a personal best of 58.71. She’ll have quality competition though, with All-State returners Kaylee Locke and Kenzie Fedewa vying for that title.
The state leader vs. the oncoming train. In 2023, Damarcus Rouse has held onto the 400m lead for a majority of the year, putting his stamp on it at Elmer Ball, nearly matching it at Farmington, then cementing his solidity at the OAA Red/White Championship. He’s undefeated on the year and also an integral part of their dominating 4×4. But Shamar Heard is coming. Deep into last summer, the Chippewa Valley junior became the fastest Michigan HS 400m runner ever, running 46.48 at AAU Nationals. He’s only has three 400’s under his belt this year, will he have enough time to catch Rouse?
How fast can he go with competition? Vicksburg’s Michael Wright has only lost once on the year (to D1 100/200 contender Trey McGinnis), and in championship season, he’s running as fast as ever. His times at MITCA, 10.68 and 21.68 were both wind-aided, but when converted, are among his best on the year. Hopefully wind will be favorable, but even if not, he’s in great shape to take both crowns.
How will they fit all these boys onto the track? The 100m and 200m are absolutely jampacked with competitors, with little separation between the top boys. Perhaps running the best as of late are Warren Michigan Collegiate’s Jailin Spikes, breaking 11.00 to win the Macomb County title and Brayden Riley, fresh off Region 30 and Jack Pine titles. Riley’s points could be crucial, combined with Metzger and Moloy, the Mustangs have a real chance at State glory.
How many more does he want to grab? Three so far, the 100m and 200m in 2021, the 100m in 2022, and in prime position again in the short sprints. Beecher’s Jaylin Townsend, as hard as it is to believe, is having his best year yet in the 100m. Sub-11 for all of May, reaching a personal best at Goodrich. He’s undefeated on the year and also a part of the Bucs 4×1 and 4×2 that will be right in the mix.
Back here with the sixth installment of State Finals previews.
Everyone should be familiar with my cross country work, but to summarize, the main philosophy I have there is twofold:
Different courses and conditions alter times
One race isn’t enough to analyze, one must look to the whole picture, with more weight toward recent performances
I’m bringing a bit of that same flavor to these previews. For most events, I’ll chart an athlete’s top-five marks and their performances in May. Those two stats should give a picture what an athlete can do when they truly bring it and should give a glimpse into their current condition. I’ll also look to common competitions, head-to-head matchups, which should control for various weather conditions that impact performance and show how athletes compare against one another when toeing the same line.
The difference between track and the cross country predictions is that for cross, I have formulae that take those factors and spit out projections. For these previews, I’ll have my own predictions that are based on my own eye test. I’ve been told that last year’s predictions both motivated and gave confidence and those are my intentions once again. I wish that everyone has the day of their life at the State Finals. It’d be quite boring if I was correct on everything. Please prove these wrong, unless I have you first.
Also in need of note – keeping on top and staying up to date of track stats is impossible, especially with my lack of programming knowledge and athletic.net’s password protection against web crawling. The 300 hurdles stats were compiled on Sunday, the 100/110 hurdles on Monday. I know there will results past that date and I know that’ll be the case for other events over these next few days. But we’re all armed with the same tools, we can all gravitate to the same site and dive deep into results.
I figure it’s about time I added the predictions to each post. I’ll say the same thing for everyone. Unless you’re predicted first, I hope they’re wrong. If you’re not predicted to win, I hope you win. If you’re not predicted to be All-State, I hope you step on that podium. If you are in the top spot, go and prove it right.
DIVISION ONE
Everything changes, yet stays the same. Another June rolls around and another bevy of Oak Park girls are dominating in the hurdles. Nonah Waldron has bounced back from a rough end to the 2022 season, setting a Michigan record in the 300 hurdles. Morgan Roundtree previously held that record and has worked on her speed, lowering her 100 hurdle best from 14.10 to 13.85. Looking ahead to those two has been Carrie VanNoy, who won the Oakland County 300 hurdle title. Of course there are others across the division. Detroit Renaissance will look to extract points here via Celeste Davis, Martia Williams, and Lauren Bickerdt. Cass Tech’s Lindsay Johnson is coming in hot off her 2nd consecutive sweep of the PSL. Off a two year break from hurdling has been Pioneer’s Maya Rollins, she of great hurdling bloodlines, reaching down below 14.00 twice in the spring.
It’s been an abbreviated season for Warren Regina’s Ella Jenkins, but it appears she’s primed to be in position to grab another state title. Last year, it was in the 300 hurdles, this year she’s healthily established herself as the D2 leader in the 100s. For the longer race, similar dominance abounds. Charlotte’s Annabelle Densmore has dropped almost 2.5 seconds from her junior best on her way to stringing along an undefeated season. Riley Gill and Megan Zahnow have been solid in each event and Sadie Dykstra will be coming back from a surefire podium finish in the long jump to compete here as well.
It’s underclassmen galore over here! Mazie Robison is someone that caught my eye as a freshman, placing 3rd here in the high hurdles. She’s stepped it up a notch in championship season, hitting sub-16 in 2 of her past 3 races. Back in early May, I particularly liked her win at Shepherd. Her prelim wasn’t the most optimal race, she put that behind her to win in the final. That sort of mental fortitude could pay dividends in a pressure-filled environment. The youth movement is even more apparent in the longer hurdles, where the four best times in the event are taken by 9th graders. Emily Peters has the top spot and she’s had a marvelous season, defeated only by Densmore, and reaching into the 46’s come championship season.
Let’s put it this way: on the track surface in 2023, she’s undefeated. All running events. 100m, 200m, high hurdles, low hurdles. Molly Brown has knocked a whole 1.7 seconds from her 2022 freshman self in the 100s, dipping under 15.00 once and nearly hitting it on the nose on other occasions. That is perhaps her most dominant event, but she’ll be lacing it up in the 300 as well. Where she might find an adversary. Anna Plum is on track to defend her crown. She ran in the low-47’s to gain the gold last year and has dropped more than 1.5 seconds off that mark as we’ve ran it back.
The past two years, we’ve seen varying levels of hurdle races for Braxton Brann. As a sophomore he placed 10th in the 300h, as a junior he concentrated on the short sprints, nabbing All-State in each. As a senior, it appears he’s all-in on the high hurdles. He still has that 100/200m speed, ranking among the best in the State for each respective event. But the hurdles are where we’ve seen the most progress. Undefeated on the year and in his regional championship, he blasted through the 14.00 barrier. Hurdle and Cass Tech Technician Michael Davis-Hawkins has had a year in the longer race, sub-40 each time out, even reaching down as low as sub-38 to capture the Region 7 crown. There are plenty of other competitors right there in the mix, doubling in both: Wallace Tupper II, Kayenn Mabin, Seneca Moore, Nakia Willis, Josh Hurt, amongst many others.
Jaxson Tober was ranked as 2022’s top all-around athlete, prominent in a few sprints, the long jump, and especially the hurdles. In that junior campaign, he placed 2nd in the 110’s and was unable to qualify in the 300. Boy, he’s more than made up for that in 2023. He’s been unbeaten in that event and ranks #2 in the entire state. The high hurdles may be more of a thrill. Tober still holds the top time, but he’ll be fending off an Andrew Miller who beat him at Region 12, Mill Coleman who blasted a 14.78 to win in Region 13, and Tyler Baker, another multi-event marvel.
It’s been all green for Napoleon’s Holden Van Poppel in the high hurdles. The junior has been undefeated in the regular season, blasting below 15.00 on multiple occasions, a considerable D3 lead. The 300’s are about as wide open as you’ll see among both genders, all divisions. There are plenty of candidates to win, such as Dominick Hernandez, whose 40.50 to win in Region 30 grabbed the D3 lead. Dominick was defeated at MITCA Team State by Mitchell Vaske, who will be making his first voyage to the State level in his career. Don’t be shocked when Cameron Tigner sticks his nose in there, as he’s been sub-42 all throughout May.
I love the mix of all-around success and individual event greatness. For Brady Feldpausch, it’s debatable as to what’s his hurdle specialty. In each of the two hurdle events, he’s unbeaten, running his best to close the year, has top-2 times in the division, and has dropped considerable time since 2022. Also, is it just me or does Fowler always have hurdlers, sprinters, and mid-distance athletes? He’ll be running into Tayshawn Bester in the high hurdles, Tayshawn having snuck under 15.00 earlier in the year, and hoping to avenge his 2022 Regional DQ. Landon Bennett is the other guy in the 300’s. Bennett hasn’t been beat since late-April and has given sub-40 a serious challenge on one occasion. He’ll be in the same boat as Bester, hoping to avenge some demons, if anything I know he’ll improve on his 25th place finish from last June.
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 