Five major championship meets on Saturday and since it’s the season for championship meets, I’m gonna throw down some projections.
The goal of this week was to figure how the heck I did simulations last year. There are a ton of steps and since I have no idea how to write a program, nor any desire to learn how to write a program, this is all in ol’ Excel. I didn’t want to get to regional week and forget how to do these, so this was a good round of practice before my big weeks.
I’ll copy the explanation from last year, but if you don’t wish to read all that, here’s the cliff notes of how the simulations are different than early projections (last week) or a.net simulation:
These simulations/projections use a runner’s consistency and ratings over the course of the season and spit out a random number based on those two factors.
Past weeks and rankings use a weighted average, but don’t take into account a runner’s consistency.
Athleticnet uses a runner’s best time, with no consideration for course, date, or a runner’s consistency.
From last year (with a few edits):
“These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. TullyRunners explains it here.
By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-30 or All-County or whatever, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.
Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.“
GREATER LANSING
Trophies to Top-5 Teams Medals to Top-30 Individuals
Girls
Proj. Place
Girls Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Top 5 %
1
Okemos
53
1.00
95+
95+
2
St. Johns
108
2.14
95+
3
DeWitt
140
3.02
95+
4
Pewamo-Westphalia
170
4.37
93
5
Owosso
175
4.63
95+
6
Alma
207
6.27
8
7
Lansing Catholic
216
6.78
8
Grand Ledge
254
8.58
9
Leslie
274
9.50
10
Mason
289
10.38
11
Haslett
302
11.03
12
Holt
303
11.12
13
Williamston
339
12.47
14
Howell
401
14.45
15
St. Louis
412
14.94
16
Corunna
436
16.07
17
East Lansing
458
16.73
18
Laingsburg
481
17.60
19
Fowlerville
550
19.41
20
Saranac
571
20.21
Proj. Place
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
9
Ava Schafer
St. Johns
1.16
2
12
Tessa Roe
Lansing Catholic
2.44
3
12
Meghan Ford
Mason
2.92
4
12
Shannon Gillahan
Okemos
3.99
5
11
Ezgi Kurt
Alma
6.71
6
11
Whitney Werner
Pewamo-Westphalia
7.26
7
11
Lauren Walker
Holt
7.35
8
12
Abby Young
St. Johns
8.63
9
9
Gabriella Fugazzi
Okemos
8.80
10
12
Clara Fletcher
St. Johns
10.82
11
11
Kayla Williams
DeWitt
12.81
12
12
Lily Salazar
Okemos
13.71
13
11
Joy Evans
Alma
14.95
14
12
Nicole Mays
Okemos
14.99
15
10
October Harns
Okemos
15.29
16
10
Elizabeth Schafer
Okemos
16.92
17
10
Aviana Skinner
Grand Ledge
17.95
18
12
Jaiden Dickman
St. Louis
22.81
19
10
Lydia Jagger
Grand Ledge
23.17
20
12
Libby Summerland
Owosso
24.12
21
11
Abby Minnick
East Lansing
24.39
22
11
Autumn Thompson
DeWitt
25.69
23
11
Josie Jenkinson
Owosso
25.91
24
11
Nicole Schafer
Williamston
26.03
25
10
Emma Crandell
Owosso
27.19
26
11
Ayla Holben
DeWitt
27.35
27
12
Bryna Mead-O’Brien
Okemos
27.89
28
10
Miriam Kloha
St. Johns
28.98
29
12
Dora Henry
Haslett
30.65
30
11
Ella Reaves
Holt
31.00
31
11
Mia Williams
DeWitt
32.04
32
10
Frances Melinn
Lansing Catholic
32.68
33
9
Sophia Schafer
Williamston
32.87
34
9
Alyssa Kramer
Pewamo-Westphalia
34.23
35
12
Melanie Werner
Pewamo-Westphalia
37.32
36
11
Emily Rathka
Laingsburg
38.74
37
9
Jaidyn Nickels
Corunna
39.75
38
9
Grace Wonch
Lansing Catholic
40.36
39
10
Abbie Schneider
Pewamo-Westphalia
41.21
40
10
Madison Aten
Grand Ledge
41.50
41
10
Hailey Creisher
Leslie
41.71
42
11
Hayven Thiel
Corunna
41.83
43
10
Anna Poppema
Bath
41.97
44
10
Abby Russel
Haslett
42.05
45
12
Maura Lichiello
Howell
42.11
46
11
Julionna West
Owosso
43.45
47
11
Erin Lubahn
Leslie
44.21
48
12
Analise Chelotti
DeWitt
51.31
49
10
Reese Supianoski
Williamston
53.12
50
11
Natalie Summerland
Owosso
55.84
Boys
Proj. Place
Boys Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Top 5 %
1
Alma
106
1.51
63
95+
2
Okemos
114
2.03
30
95+
3
Howell
119
2.46
7
95+
4
Pewamo-Westphalia
182
4.39
89
5
Grand Ledge
211
5.64
50
6
East Lansing
230
6.73
31
7
DeWitt
235
7.03
17
8
St. Johns
243
7.43
9
9
Bath
271
9.03
10
Corunna
300
10.34
11
St. Louis
309
10.74
12
Mason
335
11.98
13
Haslett
341
11.97
14
Leslie
419
14.71
15
Ionia
448
15.84
16
Eaton Rapids
451
15.68
17
Lansing Catholic
458
16.29
18
Saranac
481
17.44
19
Williamston
536
19.29
20
Fowlerville
548
19.73
Proj. Place
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Nate Carmody
Haslett
1.57
2
9
Jack MacGregor
Howell
2.80
3
12
Collin Farmer
Pewamo-Westphalia
4.18
4
11
Alex Doneth
Mason
5.54
5
11
Dylan Lydic
Haslett
5.59
6
10
Thomas Larson
Alma
6.91
7
12
Ben March
St. Louis
7.26
8
9
Ezekiel Baltierra
Alma
7.76
9
11
Nolan Inglis
DeWitt
9.17
10
10
Ian Morgan
Okemos
10.76
11
12
Isaac Staib
St. Johns
11.20
12
11
Landon Pestrue
St. Louis
12.38
13
12
Michael Cyrul
East Lansing
13.79
14
12
Jacob Montgomery
Ionia
14.40
15
10
Benjamin Rottier
Grand Ledge
14.74
16
12
Ali Kudmani
Alma
15.16
17
12
Matthew Schrauben
St. Johns
18.77
18
12
Eden Lampi
East Lansing
19.61
19
11
Lucas Wood
Howell
20.73
20
11
Nathan Beemer
Okemos
20.84
21
12
Brennan McKone
DeWitt
25.53
22
12
Carter Holmes
Bath
26.67
23
11
Drake Wallace
Howell
26.87
24
9
Simon Shutt
Okemos
27.22
25
12
Nathan Day
Saranac
27.26
26
10
Noah Devereaux
Laingsburg
27.49
27
11
Nathan Wilkinson
Okemos
28.58
28
11
Conner McCormick
Mason
32.55
29
11
Simon Erfourth
Owosso
33.72
30
12
Noah DeLand
Howell
33.75
31
9
Nolan Lounds
Grand Ledge
34.93
32
10
Elijah Baltierra
Alma
35.03
33
12
Liam Hoover
Howell
35.14
34
12
Hunter Helminski
Saranac
37.96
35
12
Gurshaan Sidhu
Okemos
38.65
36
11
Allan George
Pewamo-Westphalia
39.02
37
9
Wyatt Werner
Pewamo-Westphalia
39.28
38
11
Luke Skidmore
Bath
40.68
39
9
River Fox
Bath
41.35
40
10
Malcolm Cesario
Okemos
41.80
41
10
Payton Chandler
Corunna
42.47
42
11
Elijah Hutchinson
Grand Ledge
42.66
43
11
Bodie Heiss
Alma
42.78
44
12
Andrew Koenigsknecht
Bath
43.81
45
10
Aidan Roka
Corunna
45.44
46
11
Andrew Fugazzi
Okemos
46.98
47
11
Jack Huntington
Eaton Rapids
48.12
48
11
Lucas Moore
Fowlerville
49.15
49
9
John Kowatch
Pewamo-Westphalia
50.76
50
12
Sam Donnellan
East Lansing
52.52
MACOMB COUNTY
Trophies to Top-3 Teams All-County for Top-21 Individuals
Girls
Proj. Place
Team
Avg. Place
Avg. Score
Win %
Top 3 %
1
Romeo
1.00
21
95+
95+
2
Utica
2.43
86
89
3
Fraser
3.28
96
58
4
Macomb Dakota
3.29
97
53
5
Warren Regina
5.05
145
6
Armada
5.95
175
7
Macomb Lutheran North
7.42
256
8
Utica Eisenhower
7.61
258
9
Clinton Twp. Chippewa Valley
9.01
294
10
Richmond
10.47
329
11
Lakeview St. Clair Shores
11.54
344
12
Utica Ford
12.47
354
13
Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers
12.79
359
14
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
13.55
367
15
Sterling Heights Stevenson
14.47
377
Proj. Place
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Jayden Harberts
Macomb Dakota
2.3
2
9
Annie Hrabovsky
Romeo
2.5
3
10
Natalia Guaresimo
Romeo
2.7
4
10
Emmerson Clor
Romeo
3.2
5
11
Violet Hrabovsky
Romeo
5.1
6
12
Mariah Belmont
Macomb Dakota
7.6
7
11
Olivia Purdy
Romeo
8.1
8
11
Grace Grupido
Fraser
8.9
9
11
Lillian Deskins
Romeo
9.2
10
10
Siene Muraszewski
Utica
10.4
11
9
Emma Brown
Utica
10.9
12
12
Lauren Thomas
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
13.1
13
10
Katelyn Frazier
Fraser
13.8
14
12
Ava Baltierra
Armada
14.8
15
12
Gracie Youngblood
Romeo
17.0
16
12
Remi Flanz
Fraser
17.9
17
11
Brooklyn Khon
Armada
18.4
18
10
Brooke McFarland
Utica
19.4
19
12
Kennedy Roskopp
Warren Regina
19.5
20
11
Elizabeth Ambroggio
Warren Regina
19.7
21
10
Olivia Cereska
Fraser
20.0
22
11
Charlotte Long
Utica Eisenhower
20.9
23
10
Lidia Clancy
Macomb Dakota
21.9
24
11
Norah Lesner
Utica
22.5
25
11
Sophia Aquino
Utica
23.2
26
9
Maggie Baginski
Utica Eisenhower
24.7
27
11
Natalie Lentine
Warren Regina
28.0
28
12
Samantha Kook
Armada
29.3
29
9
Aubrey Rizzo
Macomb Dakota
32.0
30
11
Lorelei Mahon
Warren Regina
32.4
31
12
Eleanor Kroetsch
Utica
34.4
32
10
Ryann Smitka
Macomb Dakota
34.7
33
9
Samantha Whitlam
Macomb Lutheran North
35.0
34
10
Eden Fante
Lakeview St. Clair Shores
35.4
35
12
Grace Gutmann
Clinton Twp. Chippewa Valley
35.8
36
11
Shelby Stabile
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
36.0
37
11
Julia Timpa
Macomb Dakota
36.8
38
12
Brianna Albers
Richmond
38.0
39
11
Luciana Rodriguez
Fraser
38.4
40
9
Lilly McNair
Utica
38.9
41
9
Faith Wessel
Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers
39.7
42
10
Jacalyn Yakel
Utica Eisenhower
40.9
43
10
Kate Molloy
Fraser
41.0
44
12
Emma Dell
Lakeview St. Clair Shores
44.5
45
12
Gabby Fernandez
Warren Regina
45.0
46
9
Lilianna Peace
Clinton Twp. Chippewa Valley
49.0
47
10
Paulina Chapman
Richmond
49.7
48
9
Kaitlyn Rizzo
Macomb Dakota
49.8
49
12
Lydia Martoni
Fraser
50.1
50
10
Abigail Denoyer
Armada
50.9
Boys
Proj. Place
Boys Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Top 3 %
1
Romeo
62
1.24
81
95+
2
Macomb Dakota
76
1.95
16
95+
3
Utica
86
2.84
95+
4
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
111
3.97
5
Utica Eisenhower
200
5.29
6
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
225
6.94
7
Warren Cousino
232
7.64
8
Macomb Lutheran North
234
8.05
9
Fraser
235
7.98
10
Utica Ford
253
9.57
11
Clinton Twp. Chippewa Valley
278
10.69
12
Lakeview St. Clair Shores
319
12.14
13
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
342
12.86
14
Sterling Heights Stevenson
381
14.36
15
Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers
386
14.54
Proj. Place
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Thomas Westphal
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
1.3
2
12
Vincent Guaresimo
Romeo
2.5
3
12
Connor Clor
Romeo
3.8
4
10
Harper Wesley
Utica
5.2
5
12
Dylan Penberthy
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
6.5
6
12
Carter Fox
Macomb Dakota
6.6
7
12
Tyler Donovan
Fraser
7.8
8
12
Tyler Brothers
Utica Eisenhower
7.9
9
12
Brewer Snay
Macomb Lutheran North
10.2
10
12
Simon Davis
Macomb Dakota
11.2
11
12
Brandon Penberthy
Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
12.4
12
11
Colton Howell
Macomb Dakota
13.5
13
11
Lucas LaMilza
Macomb Dakota
13.9
14
12
Ethan Muraszewski
Utica
14.0
15
12
Luke Oyster
Utica Eisenhower
16.3
16
12
Jack DeWaele
Clinton Twp. Chippewa Valley
17.9
17
12
Bryce Goodsell
Romeo
17.9
18
12
Zachary Rubicz
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
18.1
19
11
Aidan Daly
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
19.9
20
10
Luke Allen
Romeo
20.7
21
12
Silas Smith
Utica
20.9
22
11
Luke Morehouse
Utica
21.2
23
12
Michael Magnoli
Romeo
21.2
24
10
Charlie Curtis
Utica
26.5
25
12
Aidan Leslie
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
27.3
26
11
Greg Vogt
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
28.1
27
12
Johnathan Mitchell
Utica Ford
28.6
28
12
Paul Gopez
Warren Cousino
28.6
29
11
Gavin Frandle
Utica
30.9
30
10
James Brickel
Romeo
31.9
31
10
Lance Edghill
Fraser
32.6
32
11
Braden Cinato
Warren Cousino
34.6
33
10
Andrew Scheloske
Macomb Dakota
34.7
34
11
John Lonsway
Sterling Heights Stevenson
34.9
35
12
Lucas Shemansky
Fraser
35.9
36
12
Jamison Snay
Macomb Lutheran North
36.3
37
12
Gabe Rusch
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
36.4
38
11
Alex Habarth
Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse
36.6
39
11
Owen Gould
Romeo
36.8
40
11
Noah Redman
Macomb Dakota
40.8
41
10
Aaron Hemstreet
Warren Cousino
40.9
42
12
Rhenier Weeks
Utica Ford
41.1
43
10
Ian Potts
Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers
43.6
44
12
Aaron Franz
Clinton Twp. Chippewa Valley
43.8
45
10
Joseph Kaleto
Macomb Dakota
44.4
46
12
Thomas Perez
Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers
45.2
47
10
Aaron Osterman
New Baltimore Anchor Bay
46.6
48
11
Levi Clair
Utica
48.8
49
11
Jensen McCutcheon
Lakeview St. Clair Shores
51.0
50
11
Colden Gray
Utica Eisenhower
51.1
LENAWEE COUNTY
Trophies to Top-3 Teams Medals to Top-20 Individuals
Girls
Proj. Place
Girls Team
Avg. Place
Avg. Score
Win %
Top 3 %
1
Adrian
1.76
70
51
95+
2
Tecumseh
2.07
75
28
95+
3
Clinton
2.26
76
21
95+
4
Onsted
4.10
92
5
Blissfield
4.82
103
6
Hudson
5.99
135
7
Addison
7.11
191
8
Adrian Lenawee Christian
7.97
205
9
Sand Creek
8.92
220
Proj. Place
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Emmry Ross
Onsted
1.0
2
11
Sophy Skeels
Adrian
2.3
3
12
Anastee Davis
Adrian
3.6
4
11
Izzy Brooks
Adrian Lenawee Christian
4.0
5
9
Ayda Skeels
Adrian
4.8
6
11
Madison Morris
Tecumseh
6.4
7
10
Hope Miller
Blissfield
6.5
8
12
Cylee Elkins
Clinton
7.6
9
12
Allison Bowles
Clinton
9.1
10
10
Hailey Sills
Blissfield
10.4
11
11
Stephanie Hernandez
Addison
12.5
12
12
Samantha Coots
Clinton
13.4
13
11
Jayla Bright
Hudson
13.6
14
10
Claire Cousineau
Tecumseh
14.8
15
11
Allie England
Onsted
16.7
16
10
Raegan Brosamer
Onsted
17.6
17
9
Leila Morris
Tecumseh
18.0
18
12
Leah Rorick
Morenci
19.3
19
11
Jessica Warren
Tecumseh
20.1
20
9
Maya Whelan
Tecumseh
20.4
21
12
June Miller
Blissfield
20.5
22
11
Aubrey Appleman
Britton Deerfield
21.1
23
10
Aurelia Bennett
Clinton
21.2
24
10
Emersyn Bachelder
Morenci
24.3
25
10
Annabelle Czeiszperger
Hudson
24.5
26
9
London Landini
Tecumseh
24.7
27
9
Camryn Nowak
Tecumseh
28.3
28
12
Yoselin Fermin-Campos
Adrian
29.3
29
9
Izabel Raglow
Onsted
30.0
30
11
Sarah King
Clinton
30.3
Boys
Proj. Place
Boys Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Top 3 %
1
Adrian
21
1.00
95+
95+
2
Clinton
98
2.00
95+
3
Onsted
142
3.77
41
4
Hudson
144
3.85
43
5
Adrian Madison
155
5.16
15
6
Tecumseh
165
6.27
7
Sand Creek
171
7.20
8
Adrian Lenawee Christian
180
8.25
9
Morenci
183
8.66
10
Blissfield
188
8.84
Proj. Place
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Braylon Petty
Adrian
1.0
2
10
Moises Salazar
Adrian
2.5
3
11
Mitchell Hiatt
Onsted
2.5
4
12
Matthew Canales
Adrian
4.6
5
9
Carter Fenner
Adrian
6.2
6
9
Cole Hillegonds
Clinton
7.4
7
12
Alex Czeiszperger
Hudson
7.7
8
12
Chase Nyack
Adrian
9.5
9
12
Jackson Nyack
Adrian
9.9
10
9
Silas Skeels
Adrian
11.0
11
12
Grant Fahle
Tecumseh
11.4
12
11
Ian Waddell
Blissfield
11.9
13
12
Lucas Goodman
Clinton
11.9
14
11
Gabe Manchester
Clinton
13.1
15
11
Joel Lange
Adrian Lenawee Christian
16.3
16
10
Trenton Fetter
Adrian Madison
18.4
17
12
William Marks
Blissfield
19.8
18
10
Paul McClure
Adrian Madison
20.0
19
11
Isaac St. John
Hudson
20.9
20
9
Landon Wilkins
Morenci
21.8
21
11
Owen Strieter-Byron
Tecumseh
22.0
22
12
Nathan Daniels
Adrian Lenawee Christian
22.1
23
11
Max Marten
Tecumseh
22.3
24
11
James Bayes
Onsted
22.4
25
9
Silas Daniels
Sand Creek
22.4
26
11
Zachary Martinez
Morenci
24.9
27
11
Beau Shaffer
Morenci
25.1
28
11
Eric Ramsey
Clinton
27.1
29
11
Jameson Watson
Britton Deerfield
28.1
30
10
Nicholas Sorrow
Hudson
29.6
GMAA
No mention of trophies/medals on the info doc (or I missed it, very likely), so I went 30 deep on individuals
Girls
Proj. Place
Girls Team
Avg. Place
Avg. Score
Win %
Top 3 %
1
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
1.00
39
95+
95+
2
Fruitport
2.04
66
95+
3
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
3.61
93
47
4
Muskegon Mona Shores
3.61
94
47
5
Whitehall
4.76
113
6
6
Montague
6.01
142
7
Muskegon Oakridge
6.97
174
8
Muskegon Orchard View
8.05
242
Proj. Place
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Grace VanderKooi
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
1.1
2
12
Tatum Dykstra
Fruitport
2.6
3
10
Jersi Bilek
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
3.4
4
11
Cami Kraai
Whitehall
4.1
5
12
Eleanor Kingshott
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
8.0
6
9
Leah Sneller
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
8.7
7
12
Lauren Lee
Fruitport
9.1
8
11
Valerie Pollock
Fruitport
10.2
9
12
Abbie Wiegers
North Muskegon
10.3
10
12
Grace Folkema
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
11.7
11
10
Ellery Horness
Muskegon Mona Shores
12.2
12
12
Merceydez Patton
Muskegon Oakridge
12.8
13
12
Cammie Erickson
Montague
12.9
14
9
Kaylie Riksen
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
13.8
15
11
Adalyn Britton
Whitehall
13.9
16
11
Adrienne Fluette
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
14.9
17
9
Gabrielle Chevez
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
17.9
18
10
Sylvia Skujins
North Muskegon
18.7
19
11
Morgan Lawrence
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
20.5
20
11
Diamond Madison
Muskegon Mona Shores
20.5
21
11
Logan Clausen
Muskegon Mona Shores
20.9
22
12
Raegan Ruel
Muskegon Oakridge
22.0
23
10
Ella Grimm
Muskegon Mona Shores
22.8
24
11
Grace Torsch
Montague
26.1
25
10
Kaylynn Pavlige
Fruitport
26.3
26
12
Tresa Dykstra
Fruitport
26.4
27
10
Kendall Braginton
Muskegon Mona Shores
26.5
28
9
Darcy Keefe
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
26.6
29
9
Treasure Fleese
Fruitport
27.2
30
10
Kaylynn Pavlich
Fruitport
27.9
Boys
Proj. Place
Boys Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Top 3 %
1
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
60
1.25
76
95+
2
Fruitport
72
1.90
22
95+
3
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
98
3.32
62
4
Whitehall
105
3.65
37
5
Montague
131
5.07
6
Muskegon Mona Shores
145
6.02
7
Muskegon Catholic Central
164
7.10
8
North Muskegon
174
7.69
9
Muskegon Oakridge
217
9.17
10
Ravenna
240
9.83
Proj. Place
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Jaxon Allen
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
2.5
2
11
Stewart Waters
Whitehall
2.6
3
11
Matthias Morse
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
3.2
4
11
Kye Grant
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
3.4
5
11
Vincent Pollock
Fruitport
6.1
6
11
Peyton Ruel
Muskegon Oakridge
6.8
7
12
Tate Bradley
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
7.2
8
10
Noah Raeth
Montague
9.2
9
10
Hunter Parsons
Whitehall
9.7
10
12
Willem Parsekian
Muskegon Mona Shores
10.7
11
12
Clay Johnson
Montague
15.3
12
12
Levi Glynn
Fruitport
15.5
13
12
Evan Atkinson-Miller
North Muskegon
15.5
14
12
Ethan Horan
Fruitport
16.2
15
12
Levi Bol
Fruitport
17.1
16
12
Graeson Lawrence
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
18.7
17
12
Jacob Lyonnais
Muskegon Catholic Central
19.5
18
12
Alex Wilber
Fruitport
20.9
19
11
Alix Draves
Montague
21.4
20
10
Landon Johnson
Fruitport
21.4
21
11
Andrew Boeringa
Whitehall
23.2
22
10
Jack Yonkman
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
24.0
23
9
Barrett Nance
North Muskegon
24.5
24
12
Owen Lyonnais
Muskegon Catholic Central
24.8
25
10
Hayden Fox
Muskegon Mona Shores
25.1
26
11
Jamie Neel
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
26.1
27
9
Owen Sytsema
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
26.4
28
10
Reuben Anderson
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
26.4
29
11
Daniel Mares
Ravenna
27.2
30
12
Jack Walkenhorst
Muskegon Catholic Central
30.0
DOWNRIVER GABRIEL RICHARD
(But really NEWS HERALD to us OGs)
Trophies to Top-3 Teams All-Area to Top-25 Individuals
Portage, our great bellwether for the season’s progress, has come and passed. There were many affirmations and a few surprises. You’ll see a bit more movement in these rankings this week, as more recent meets are weighed more, early season meets mean less and less.
If you’ve followed these over the past few years, you may know the gist of these, but let’s break it down once again:
The individual ratings take into account all the meets listed here. There are a few meets missing that I’ll link to, but pretty much any meet with a significant number of athletes will have been calculated. An individual’s rating takes their best 75% of rated races (rounding up, so 4 of 5, 5 of 6, etc.), weighs them with more recent races having a higher weight, then spits out a final rating. The team rankings score those individuals as if they were in a meet against their entire division.
As a result of taking into the entire season into account, the rankings will be more conservative and less reactionary than most. Putting together a great performance once will bring about a tiny bit of movement, doing so repeatedly will elicit much greater change.
There are a few changes from previous years:
No more ratings of weekday, conference meets
Why? One, often these aren’t raced all out and end up underrating a runner. Two, to lessen my workload. I’d rather concentrate on these rankings and use the weekend invites that are more likely to be raced hard to determine the rankings.
Using the top 75% of races instead of 67%
Why? If I’m gonna use fewer overall races from a runner’s resume, I have to make up for it in some way.
No more individual rankings posted to social media
Why? I hate instances where a runner stagnates or falls back over the course of the season and it’s posted for the world to see. I recognize people want to know where they’re ranked, so just having it on the website is a happy medium.
More writeups focused on the top teams and individuals, rather than just handpicking one each week
I’ve found that when it comes toward state time, I know all the numbers and what a kid might run, but have a tough time pointing toward a narrative. Hopefully writing a little recap and what to look forward to will help in that regard. I started with three for the first rankings, then five this week, and so on.
But sadly not D1 this week. But as my own boss, I’m giving myself leeway as I’ve already written thousands of pages of material this year.
Posting these one division at a time
If you’ve noticed, I always go Division 4 first, trending towards Division 1. This is done intentionally! Traditional media always focuses on the larger schools. By focusing on the smaller divisions first, they get the love that they might not normally receive.
Unfortunately, the injury rule is in place, where if I don’t have a rating from the past month, that runner is taken out. If you’re willing to share (and I can understand why not – someone’s medical situation doesn’t have to be the public’s business) that your athlete or you yourself are healthy/injured, feel free. There are some exceptions based on situations that make sense. Hopefully these don’t rub salt in the wound of someone who’s already hurting.
Now I need to be serious for a minute. These are for fun. If you don’t like these fun rankings, you don’t need to participate, you don’t need to call me names, talk trash to your fellow competitors, or send rude emails. We good here? Enjoy.
Portage, our great bellwether for the season’s progress, has come and passed. There were many affirmations and a few surprises. You’ll see a bit more movement in these rankings this week, as more recent meets are weighed more, early season meets mean less and less.
If you’ve followed these over the past few years, you may know the gist of these, but let’s break it down once again:
The individual ratings take into account all the meets listed here. There are a few meets missing that I’ll link to, but pretty much any meet with a significant number of athletes will have been calculated. An individual’s rating takes their best 75% of rated races (rounding up, so 4 of 5, 5 of 6, etc.), weighs them with more recent races having a higher weight, then spits out a final rating. The team rankings score those individuals as if they were in a meet against their entire division.
As a result of taking into the entire season into account, the rankings will be more conservative and less reactionary than most. Putting together a great performance once will bring about a tiny bit of movement, doing so repeatedly will elicit much greater change.
There are a few changes from previous years:
No more ratings of weekday, conference meets
Why? One, often these aren’t raced all out and end up underrating a runner. Two, to lessen my workload. I’d rather concentrate on these rankings and use the weekend invites that are more likely to be raced hard to determine the rankings.
Using the top 75% of races instead of 67%
Why? If I’m gonna use fewer overall races from a runner’s resume, I have to make up for it in some way.
No more individual rankings posted to social media
Why? I hate instances where a runner stagnates or falls back over the course of the season and it’s posted for the world to see. I recognize people want to know where they’re ranked, so just having it on the website is a happy medium.
More writeups focused on the top teams and individuals, rather than just handpicking one each week
I’ve found that when it comes toward state time, I know all the numbers and what a kid might run, but have a tough time pointing toward a narrative. Hopefully writing a little recap and what to look forward to will help in that regard. I started with three for the first rankings, then five this week, and so on.
Posting these one division at a time
If you’ve noticed, I always go Division 4 first, trending towards Division 1. This is done intentionally! Traditional media always focuses on the larger schools. By focusing on the smaller divisions first, they get the love that they might not normally receive.
Unfortunately, the injury rule is in place, where if I don’t have a rating from the past month, that runner is taken out. If you’re willing to share (and I can understand why not – someone’s medical situation doesn’t have to be the public’s business) that your athlete or you yourself are healthy/injured, feel free. There are some exceptions based on situations that make sense. Hopefully these don’t rub salt in the wound of someone who’s already hurting.
Now I need to be serious for a minute. These are for fun. If you don’t like these fun rankings, you don’t need to participate, you don’t need to call me names, talk trash to your fellow competitors, or send rude emails. We good here? Enjoy.
Week Three: Conquered a strong field at Benzie then turned around and routed a very competitive OK White. Showing much strength early with frontrunners and depth, could very well put all five girls on the podium.
Week Four: More of the same at Ottawa Hills from the Eagle girls. All scoring girls placed in the top-11, with Adia Sikkema and Lucy Waalkes pulling up in the top-20.
Championship Week: Otsego Bulldog is often the first D2 showcase of the season, this year being no different, with 6 of the top 15 ranked teams in appearance. Just as every other meet, the Eagles up front, making up half of the first 8 finishers. Senior Payton Holtz is peaking at the right time to close her career, hitting sub-19 in her past two invites.
Despite missing one of their top girls, won fairly convincingly at Portage. Naomi Nelson’s return to the 18’s didn’t hurt either.
Otsego
Week Three: Sadly, we won’t see the Bulldogs at a major Michigan invitational until Jackson, but when you have the opportunity to run at the legendary Detweiller Park, you take it. Their season is setting up very similarly to last year, a strong top four plus a solid fifth. Though it appears their 5th spot might be improved from 2022.
Week Four: Placed 7th of 61 in the Richard Spring Invite down in Peoria. Now I don’t know much about Illinois XC at the moment, but that field had some legendary and recognizable names – York, Neuqua Valley, Palatine, Downer’s Grove, etc. Illinois Speed Ratings uses a similar methodology, but a different scale. Without getting too deep into it, converting to my scale, Detweiller rates out to about a +69 (+75 for boys) for its 2.97-to-3-mile course (highly debatable distance!) To make a short story long, the Bulldogs ran better than they have this season, even missing Taylor Mitchell.
Championship Week: In her final Bulldog Invite, senior Megan Germain ran her fastest time at Otsego’s signature home meet. Her 18:29 was good for a 6th place finish, fast enough for three consecutive top-10’s, and clutch enough to grant her Bulldogs a 2nd place finish.
Wrapped up Wolverine Conference dual/tri meet action with another 7-0 record.
Goodrich
Week Four: Changed things up on us! The past few years, the Martians have been at Holly, this year they headed further west to East Lansing. And evidenced by their 3rd place finish in the Elite Division, an excellent decision. These girls get it done through their pack, going seven deep, displacing fools left and right.
Championship Week: The Martians marked Shepherd as their territory in prep for Regionals. A 23-point win in a D2-centric field, even with Kamy Lauinger having a rough go of it.
Kamy Lauinger more than made up for Bluejay, coming across the Greater Flint line in first. Her 18:18 was a massive PB and helped the Martians win the Overall title at Cummings Center.
East Grand Rapids
Week Four: After missing Under the Lights, Drew Muller has returned, to EGR’s benefit. Her 3rd spot at Ottawa Hills meant the Pioneers really had to only score four. Combine that with personal bests from Adeline Armstrong and Sadey Seyferth and you have this traditional power rising through the ranks.
Championship Week: Great through three and finding contributors further back. Rory Workman (I swear there are thousands of Waalkes, Workmans, Kuzmas, and VanderKoois up this way) has dropped more than a minute from her Under the Lights debut.
Faced some adversity mid-race, but the performances of their sophomores in the final miles led to a top-10 finish at Portage.
Zeeland East
Week Three: An easy victory in the OK Green was sandwiched between a 2nd place in their division at Under the Lights and a 5th at Bredeweg. Emma Drnek has come into her own this year, giving the Chix a formidable 1-2 combo.
Championship Week: Another OK Green victory to go with a bronze at Otsego Bulldog. Taryn DiLaura has been a key figure on their varsity outfit, breaking 20:00 in two of her past three races, nearly a minute quicker than her freshman form.
CC Kuras masterfully moved up over the course of the Portage hills, going from over 100th at the mile to 68th at the finish as the Chix placed 6th.
St. Joseph
Week Four: The rare case of having two low sticks and needing to score three. Among those three, you could have reliable seniors such as Jade Murdoch or Ceci Ruchti. Or perhaps freshmen that are coming along nicely such as Lydia Johnson or Lily Cummings. Like many West Coast teams, the Bears traveled to Ottawa Hills on Friday, coming away from Session 2 placing 4th of 18.
Championship Week: Make it 4 straight and 13 of the past 14. The Bears have truly established a Berrien County dynasty.
Won the tiebreak over ZE. Sophomore Beatrice Peruchetti didn’t run her fastest race ever, but delivered a performance right in line with many in her initial cross season, in the mid-21’s.
St. Johns
Championship Week: The Redwing top three can hang with anybody. For instance, in the first two CAAC Red Jamborees – Fletcher, Schafer, and Young combined for 17 points. That’s in two meets, folks. SJ has won each of those jamborees.
Skipped the weekend invites, but once again put together a dominating CAAC Red effort. Their 5th and 6th girls (Lily Sackrider and Sylvia Thomas) came in before any other team’s 4th runner as the Redwings rolled.
Holland Christian
Out of any team in the D2 Portage field, the Maroons exemplified the patient racing style best. 285 points at the mile, 253 through two, then 219 at the finish, grabbing the 4th spot. Experience executing a plan in big spots gives this team major sleeper vibes come late October.
Spring Lake
Championship Week: Bea Reeser has been ON IT all year. First, opening with her best debut ever, then parlaying that into a personal best she’s been waiting to snatch since her sophomore year. Twice 6th in the OK Blue Jamborees, contributing to Laker victories each time.
The Lakers brought it to a whole new level at Portage. Personal bests up front + season bests from their depth = a 3rd place finish amongst D2’s best.
Frankenmuth
Tuesday, the quick runnin’ Shepherd course was home to personal bests from Lucy Conzelmann and Kaitlyn Miller as the ‘Muth captured the TVC Red title.
Place
Team
Region
Score
Champ Wk
Week 4
Week 3
Summer
1
Grand Rapids Christian
11
66
1
1
1
2
2
Otsego
13
198
2
2
2
1
3
Goodrich
15
282
3
4
4
3
4
East Grand Rapids
12
320
4
3
8
6
5
Zeeland East
11
386
5
7
3
5
6
St. Joseph
13
419
6
5
6
4
7
St. Johns
14
436
7
8
7
7
8
Holland Christian
11
439
11
12
28
10
9
Spring Lake
11
452
8
9
9
11
10
Frankenmuth
15
494
9
6
5
8
11
DeWitt
14
536
13
10
10
14
12
Ludington
10
583
10
15
12
13
13
Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg
12
617
14
13
13
27
14
Hudsonville Unity Christian
11
638
15
14
14
17
15
Linden
16
651
20
26
24
20
16
Owosso
14
671
21
19
18
26
17
Freeland
15
674
12
11
11
12
18
Petoskey
10
724
23
18
15
18
19
Dearborn Divine Child
16
725
18
22
20
19
20
Forest Hills Eastern
12
753
24
24
22
25
21
Warren Regina
17
758
16
20
19
34
22
Croswell-Lexington
17
772
19
17
17
29
23
Alma
15
782
17
16
16
15
24
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
16
897
25
23
25
44
25
Grand Rapids South Christian
12
906
29
29
29
22
26
Chelsea
18
909
26
25
23
21
27
GR West Michigan Aviation
12
948
32
32
38
16
Forest Hills Eastern
Week Three: That’s two years in a row that the Hawks have put the state on notice with an Under the Lights masterpiece. All five scorers were sub-17 on that humid, late August night. With three of those capable of low-16’s or better, much pressure will be placed on other teams to close that gap.
Week Four: Missing Brendan Hoving and Liam Hinman at Sparta, the Hawks still emerged victorious, eking out a 6-point victory over the home team. Youngster Steven Zawacki stepped up in a major way – he’s dropped more than a minute since Under the Lights.
Championship Week: Lost in the TJ Hansen spectacle was the fact that FHE stole the show in the elite race. The field contained tons of top teams from all divisions, yet the Hawks still prevailed. Nearly putting four under 16-flat will tend to lead to those victories.
Another show of their deep team where anyone can pop an amazing race. Lately, Luke Ueland has shown a few of those. Two straight sub-17’s, the latest one a 16:48 at Portage that was a minute faster than his junior effort.
Allendale
Week Four: There were a few doubters last week with the Falcons’ #4 ranking. I think their effort at Spartan proved a few wrong. Three in the top-15, half the points of any other school in the White Division.
Championship Week: Even if Grand Haven had Seth Norder competing, the Allendale Falcons would’ve still won their home invite. If that ain’t a show of how impressive they’ve been of late, I don’t know what is.
Sandwiched between that outstanding Allendale Falcon race and a 3rd place at Portage was another OK Blue conference win.
East Grand Rapids
Week Three: Still missing a piece, but those who have competed have had success. That could come in the form of an Alex Thole, who pulled a massive upset at Under the Lights or a Jack Edison, who navigated his way into the 16’s for the first time ever at the OK White Jamboree.
Week Four: That piece has arrived. Ryan Brinker, with only one race under his belt in ’23 has already raced faster than he had to this point in the ’22 season.
Championship Week: It wasn’t just FHE taking it to those D1 boys, the Pioneers were right there with them. Jonah Workman was a workhorse, reaching wayyyy into the 15’s to sneak into the top-10.
As Davis Christy continues to come back into the form he displayed late last year, continue to expect EGR to be in the hunt for a podium spot. His 16:43 was a 20 sec. season best and 12 seconds faster than his Portage race from 2022.
Grand Rapids Christian
Week Three: Saw FHE throw down the gauntlet on a Friday night, then woke up Saturday and decided to match it. Winners of Pete Moss by 88 points, then put seven guys in the top-16 at a star-filled OK White Jamboree.
Week Four: Probably underrated here because of their cruise through Christian Schools and the fact that we’re comparing against the entire state. In actual competition, the Eagles are undefeated, finding another clear victory this past weekend at Ottawa Hills.
Championship Week: It’s not as strong as in past years, but you can’t help who you run against, you can only aim to win. Which the Eagles did at Otsego, completing the sweep from their boys and girls squads. Senior Dylan Clark with the big breakthrough, knocking 15 seconds off his previous best.
Won another OK White Jamboree, making it 3 for 3 on the season.
Pinckney
Portage victory couldn’t have happened without the efforts of their 4th-6th guys. Zach Newman, Parker Hays, and Kyle Osborne each ran significantly better than they had all season. All personal bests, all sub-17, all valuable contributors on the path to another Portage win.
Alma
Championship Week: Ali Kudmani’s return coincides with the Panthers’ 3 meet victory streak – in conference, at Bluejay against many teams they could see at State, and this week at Birch Run.
After taking the weekend off (but still meeting for their traditional long run!), the Panthers returned to action Tuesday, where they won the TVC Red title. Of their 11 athletes, 7 ran a personal best on the Shepherd course.
Adrian
Championship Week: Carter Fenner and Matthew Canales have been steady as they come, both trending towards the 16’s as the Maples have held their own in the SEC White and picked up a victory at Jackson.
The Nyack brothers brought their senior experience to Portage, filling in the 4th and 5th spots as the Maples snuck into the top-5.
Otsego
Championship Week: The Bulldogs were missing a few of their top boys at home, perhaps Jackson was a better show of their capabilities. On those rolling Ella Sharp hills, the Dawgs packed up between 16:39 and 17:02, placing right in the middle of a field complete with D1 teams.
Thanks to the presence of 16th-ranked Plainwell, the boys side of the Wolverine Conference is a bit tougher than the ladies. At the tail end of conference competition, one of the older rivalries in Michigan HS sports took place, the Bulldog Boys prevailing by a 5 point margin over Plainwell.
Marshall
Week Four: Even missing Kaiden Gore (their five guy) at Holly, the Redhawks triumphed in the D3 race. With five divisions there, you get a mix of D2 and D3 teams in the 3rd Division, but even if Marshall was in the 2nd Division this past weekend, odds are that they’d win. When you have four boys capable of going sub-17, many possibilities are on the table.
Championship Week: These past two years, Connor Griffith has been a kid hellbent on dropping time. From 10th to 11th grade, he stormed from the 18’s to the very low-17’s. Now he’s knocking on the door of the 15’s, hitting 16:05’s at both Stockbridge and Barney Roy.
Gotta appreciate schools that represent their area. Would’ve been easy to travel to Portage for all the hoopla, instead the Redhawks hosted the Calhoun County meet. Taking the first four spots, their boys captured the victory for an excellent kick off to their championship season.
Petoskey
Have been steadily dialing it in, moving down in the ranks these past few weeks. That descent has only been accelerated with the addition of Tommy Farley in the last two weekends.
Rank
Team
Region
Score
Champ Wk
Week 4
Week 3
Summer
1
Forest Hills Eastern
12
187
1
1
1
3
2
Allendale
11
230
3
3
4
4
3
East Grand Rapids
12
264
4
2
3
1
4
Grand Rapids Christian
11
268
2
4
2
2
5
Pinckney
16
388
11
23
29
6
6
Alma
15
427
5
7
5
10
7
Adrian
18
455
6
6
7
5
8
Otsego
13
471
8
9
8
13
9
Marshall
12
489
7
5
6
15
10
Petoskey
10
514
12
16
15
9
11
Holland Christian
11
531
9
8
21
8
12
Sparta
10
577
10
10
10
17
13
Gladwin
10
616
14
12
9
12
14
Frankenmuth
15
626
13
15
13
21
15
Spring Lake
11
642
20
18
18
18
16
Plainwell
13
648
15
11
12
37
17
Yale
17
664
17
13
11
19
18
Flint Powers Catholic
15
696
18
22
20
25
19
Fremont
10
698
19
21
NR
14
20
Hamilton
11
713
16
19
19
16
21
St. Clair
17
735
24
14
14
31
22
Clio
15
788
21
24
17
28
23
Chelsea
18
841
23
20
23
7
24
Parma Western
14
846
22
27
25
27
25
St. Johns
14
921
26
30
28
34
26
Shepherd
15
935
27
28
26
33
27
Flint Kearsley
15
943
28
29
30
45
GIRLS INDIVIDUAL RANKINGS
Gail Vaikutis
Week Three: Her 18-flat at Lakeview was a massive personal best and over 80 seconds faster than her 2022 performance. In track, she was able to display great speed and now we’re witness to her strength.
Week Four: Gail’s just out here stacking personal best after personal best. Similar conditions, similar courses, 22 second improvement from week to week. Gail now owns the fastest time AND best rating in Division 2.
Championship Week: A senior going out with wins all over the place. In conference, in county, and in her college decision, recently committing to Michigan.
The pack of four at the mile turned into a pack of three by two miles, and by the finish, Gail was the only one left standing.
Natalie VanOtteren
Week Four: Sub-18 at Ottawa Hills was the 3rd of her career and 40+ seconds faster than her ’22 effort on the banks of the Grand River.
Championship Week: Four straight wins for this Eagle senior. One of those was a 17:35 personal best at Cougar Falcon, another a 17:43 effort at the Otsego D2 Showcase.
Three years of competing at Portage. Three top-10 finishes, two sub-18’s, and a 16 second improvement from 2022 to 2023.
Elena Figueroa
Week Three: Right alongside Vaikutis at both their home invite and the PC Early Bird. Missed out on a great time at Lakeview, I hope for non-injury reasons. Regardless, her early season best is already an improvement from her sophomore year.
Week Four: Her first race in over three weeks, Elena hopped right back on the wagon with a 17:44 at Riverside. A minute faster than her 2022 effort there and a 35 second personal best.
Championship Week: A slight, ever so slight personal best at Cougar Falcon is still a personal best. 17:44.0 to 17:43.9 counts for me. Elena and Gail have gone 1-2 in both of the SMAC West meets along with Berrien County – all Bear victories.
Portage just another example of how even the fastest of the fast can improve. Her 18:41 last fall was among the best efforts of her sophomore year. Her 17:43 on Saturday is what we’ve come to expect. Funny how those expectations change over time.
Ava Schafer
Week Three: Adjusting very well to the high school scene. After taking her lumps with a second-place finish at Under the Lights, she’s ripped off two consecutive victories. All mid-18 efforts from this young freshman. The Redwings have some light racing in their future, so we’ll see how much she’s improved come late September at Shepherd.
Week Four: The Redwings took the weekend off racing and well, that looks to be to Ava’s benefit. Girl just blasted a 17:48 to capture the first CAAC Red Jamboree.
Championship Week: Stuck her nose right in there at Bluejay, heading out with the lead girls, coming through the mile in 5:34. Ava faded a bit, but got a good look of what she’ll need to do when similar runners race her in a month. Comparing against only D2 girls in that Elite section, Ava did place 1st of all 46, so she’s performing admirably against her competition.
Freshman just quietly winning another CAAC Red Jamboree. Excellent opportunity for some high-level racing this weekend over at Greater Lansing.
Katie Berkshire
Championship Week: Has been a barrier-busting season for Berkshire. She first slipped under 19:00 at the Mud Run of all places, then has ripped off three consecutive low-18 efforts at Cadillac, Shepherd, and Mancelona.
Impressed by her ability to recover. Three low-18 efforts in a seven day stretch. Bluejay, Mancelona, and then Portage.
Drew Muller
Week Four: Just announced her commitment to Virginia, a great institution for its education, history, and distance running (the Hoos are currently ranked #11). I’m sure Drew will contribute there as she does here, consecutive mid-18 efforts to begin her senior year.
Championship Week: I believe her trip to Shepherd was the first of her career, and that initial run through produced her best mark of the year, an 18:16.
Unfortunately had to drop out of the race this past weekend, but I’m sure this proud champ will be back for the upcoming championships.
Emma Hoffman
Championship Week: Think of all the success, all the accomplishments over Otsego’s past ~15 years. Three titles, a runner-up, plenty of state appearances. And atop of them all, time-wise, was Emma’s 18:03 from this past weekend.
Portage pace may have been a little quick early, as she fell back from 9th to 14th. But this sophomore has shown she can learn from midseason races and apply to bigger races down the stretch. This isn’t the last we’ll see of her.
Mary Richmond
Championship Week: Four years of races at Bluejay – all in the low-18’s, all in the top-15. The Frankenmuth senior has taken on a lighter load than in years past and should be ready to roll for the coming month.
The Mary Richmond senior year tour continued this week with the culmination of a historic TVC-8/Red career. By my count, four overall championships for this Tampa-bound senior.
Emma Drnek
Just when you thought she couldn’t go any lower – she does. 18:12 at Otsego Bulldog, another personal best in a season full of them. Back to the expectations mentioned earlier for Elena. If you had told me she’d run 18:29 at Portage, I’d have said that was an outstanding season. Scary that it was only her 3rd best time of the season.
Meghan Ford
Couldn’t be happier to mention this girl here. It’s been quite a four-year journey for Meghan, three All-States, a Greater Lansing title, plenty of finishes in the 17’s and 18’s. A great career.
Rank
Grade
Name
Team
Region
1
12
Gail Vaikutis
St. Joseph
13
2
12
Natalie VanOtteren
Grand Rapids Christian
11
3
11
Elena Figueroa
St. Joseph
13
4
9
Ava Schafer
St. Johns
14
5
10
Katie Berkshire
Gaylord
10
6
12
Drew Muller
East Grand Rapids
12
7
10
Emma Hoffman
Otsego
13
8
12
Mary Richmond
Frankenmuth
15
9
11
Emma Drnek
Zeeland East
11
10
12
Meghan Ford
Mason
14
11
12
Emily Tomes
Grand Rapids Catholic Central
11
12
10
Ellie Scholma
Grand Rapids Christian
11
13
12
Logan Brazee
Otsego
13
14
10
Lilah Poel
Grand Rapids Christian
11
15
11
Sadey Seyferth
East Grand Rapids
12
16
11
Summer Brower
Ludington
10
17
12
Naomi Nelson
Grand Rapids Christian
11
18
11
Sophy Skeels
Adrian
18
19
11
Kamryn Lauinger
Goodrich
15
20
12
Jenna Pilachowski
Monroe Jefferson
18
21
12
Payton Holtz
Grand Rapids Christian
11
22
11
Natalia DeMea
Chelsea
18
23
9
Clara Kaczor
Freeland
15
24
12
Allison Kuzma
Zeeland East
11
25
12
Megan Germain
Otsego
13
26
12
Emma DeVries
GR West Michigan Aviation
12
27
11
Ezgi Kurt
Alma
15
28
11
Ava Crews
Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg
12
29
12
Addison Washler
Forest Hills Eastern
12
30
10
Natalie Foltz
Frankenmuth
15
31
11
Eva Thompson
Croswell-Lexington
17
32
9
Olivia Hollebeek
Holland Christian
11
33
11
Layla Jordan
Goodrich
15
34
12
Anastee Davis
Adrian
18
35
9
Caroline Randall
Hastings
12
36
12
Abby Young
St. Johns
14
37
12
Camille DeCola
Marshall
12
38
10
Samantha Brown
Clio
15
39
9
Jaelyn Ray
Pinckney
16
40
9
Eliana Stob
Holland Christian
11
41
12
Tatum Dykstra
Fruitport
11
42
12
Kyla Meyers
Spring Lake
11
43
10
Linnea Paige
Fremont
10
44
9
Johanna Mulder
Holland
11
45
12
Nora O’Leary
Petoskey
10
46
12
Clara Fletcher
St. Johns
14
47
9
Ayda Skeels
Adrian
18
48
10
Brooklynn Brown
Cadillac
10
49
12
Ellia Agar
Grand Rapids South Christian
12
50
11
Mea D’Agostino
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
16
BOYS INDIVIDUAL RANKINGS
Connell Alford
Week Four: Week Three: Cross country is definitely his thing. Facing some fierce competition at Lamplighter, Connell laid down the hammer early en route to a large margin of victory.
Week Four: Unfortunately, couldn’t pull off the win at Spartan, but he did finish first amongst all Michigan competition. His 15:09 nearly matched the 15:06 from last year, and when you’re in the ballpark of your state-winning self, you know you’re in a good place.
Competed in his first SEC White Jamboree of the year, grabbing his third conference win in these past three years. A solid block of training setting up for the future showdowns in the coming months.
Moved up to the D1 race at Portage to test his fitness against the most populated division in Michigan (and some Ohio teams). Came away with a 3rd place finish, his third top-10 placing there.
TJ Hansen
Week Three: Just continuing and building from his track accomplishments. 15:39 at Under the Lights was a personal best, 15:13 at John Bruder was a massive personal best. It’s a shame Freeland is on the smaller side of D2 schools, we sadly avoid a matchup with Evan Loughridge at Holly.
Week Four: Of the 93 boys that ran at both John Bruder and Holly, only 22 ran faster at Holly. TJ was 0.5 seconds slower, showing his 15:14 through the sharp turns and hills at Springfield Oaks can be sub-15 on the right course on the right day.
An absolutely masterful performance at Bluejay, negative splitting to a 14:46. Let’s just put it this way – in early September, Shepherd hosted the Jeff Drenth Memorial COLLEGE meet. TJ’s 14:46 would have won that.
Quickly bounced back from Portage (and even Bluejay the week prior) to capture his third consecutive TVC-8/Red title in as many years as he’s been competing.
Evan Loughridge
Week Three: “Opener at Possum Hollow was a 20+ second win over a ton of talented D1 runners. He’ll be facing some potential D2 All-Staters this weekend at Holly.”
Week Four: 15 seconds at a mile, 30+ at two, and 36 at the finish, Evan’s 15:35 win at Holly was allll on his lonesome. For many that would be a mental grind, but it’s more of the same for this tough-minded kid. His performance on Saturday was over 25 seconds faster than what he raced to in 2022 and given how his October played out last year, big goals are there for the taking.
After working on their toughness at Bennett Park, the Pirates head toward Portage, the site of Evan’s junior breakout race. All indicators show he’s ready to shock us again.
While others left D2 for greener pastures, Evan stuck around with his Pirate teammates. The result is something that can never be taken away. A win for himself and a win for Pinckney, besting his long-standing personal record.
Solomon Kwartowitz
Week Four: Hung in there pretty well for his first real huge effort of the season. A 15:32 in Spartan Elite earned Kwartowitz a 7th place (5th amongst Michiganders) and a massive personal best.
Each year, Cranbrook takes the trip down to Indiana to run in the Culver Academies Invitational. Solomon’s 15:38 there was 40 seconds faster than where he was in 2022, coming back from injury. He placed a second behind Kyle Grove, who just ran a 15:17 at Lavern Gibson. My guess based on limited evidence is that Solomon is ready to head toward the very low-15’s.
Just as his training partner Ethan Pruzinsky, strategically broke away from the pack early at Possum Hollow. His competitors couldn’t make up the distance on the double hill and he had enough momentum on the lengthy downhill to secure a County title.
Alex Thole
Week Four: State Champions, national qualifiers, insane freshmen, talented underclassmen… Alex has won against them all and we’re only in mid-September. Three races, three wins, all considerably better than his 2022 best.
Over the past two years, Alex has surely benefitted from the BluejayBoost. First at the MITCA race, the home of his initial sub-16, the one that paved the way for the enormous success this year. Then again on Saturday, just a show of his progress, 30 seconds quicker than that breakthrough.
Busy week for Alex, nabbing his 2nd OK White win to go along with a 2nd place Portage finish.
Sean Pettis
Nestled in between his past two WMC Lakes wins was a 15:24 at Cougar Falcon, first amongst a bevy of potential All-Staters.
Busy week for Sean as well, winning his 3rd WMC Lakes jamboree, following it up with a 3rd place Portage placing.
Nate Carmody
The Haslett senior has laid low these past few weeks, nabbing his second consecutive win at DeWitt, which was his fourth sub-16 in a row.
Greater Lansing will be as competitive as ever and Nate should be right in the mix. As in past weeks, he’s been laying low on the major invites, just quietly throwing down a 25+ second win at the Country Mill Classic.
Jack Bidwell
Has won all but two of his races this year. Included in those wins have been two I-8 jamborees and a Calhoun County championship.
Braylon Petty
Hard to believe a school as close as Adrian hadn’t traveled to Jackson in three years. But Braylon showed that he remembered how to attack those long, gradual downhills, rolling to a 15:50 victory.
Back-to-back top-10’s at Portage for Braylon, his 15:49 also 5 seconds faster than his 2022 effort.
Noah Lambers
A look at how far Noah has come: between his Portage Invite as a sophomore and as a senior, he improved by over 150 seconds (18:14 to 15:36).