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County Week Projections – Greater Lansing, Macomb County, and more

Five major championship meets on Saturday and since it’s the season for championship meets, I’m gonna throw down some projections.

The goal of this week was to figure how the heck I did simulations last year. There are a ton of steps and since I have no idea how to write a program, nor any desire to learn how to write a program, this is all in ol’ Excel. I didn’t want to get to regional week and forget how to do these, so this was a good round of practice before my big weeks.

I’ll copy the explanation from last year, but if you don’t wish to read all that, here’s the cliff notes of how the simulations are different than early projections (last week) or a.net simulation:

These simulations/projections use a runner’s consistency and ratings over the course of the season and spit out a random number based on those two factors.

Past weeks and rankings use a weighted average, but don’t take into account a runner’s consistency.

Athleticnet uses a runner’s best time, with no consideration for course, date, or a runner’s consistency.

From last year (with a few edits):

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-30 or All-County or whatever, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

GREATER LANSING

Trophies to Top-5 Teams
Medals to Top-30 Individuals

Girls

Proj. PlaceGirls TeamAvg. ScoreAvg. PlaceWin %Top 5 %
1Okemos531.0095+95+
2St. Johns1082.1495+
3DeWitt1403.0295+
4Pewamo-Westphalia1704.3793
5Owosso1754.6395+
6Alma2076.278
7Lansing Catholic2166.78
8Grand Ledge2548.58
9Leslie2749.50
10Mason28910.38
11Haslett30211.03
12Holt30311.12
13Williamston33912.47
14Howell40114.45
15St. Louis41214.94
16Corunna43616.07
17East Lansing45816.73
18Laingsburg48117.60
19Fowlerville55019.41
20Saranac57120.21

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
19Ava SchaferSt. Johns1.16
212Tessa RoeLansing Catholic2.44
312Meghan FordMason2.92
412Shannon GillahanOkemos3.99
511Ezgi KurtAlma6.71
611Whitney WernerPewamo-Westphalia7.26
711Lauren WalkerHolt7.35
812Abby YoungSt. Johns8.63
99Gabriella FugazziOkemos8.80
1012Clara FletcherSt. Johns10.82
1111Kayla WilliamsDeWitt12.81
1212Lily SalazarOkemos13.71
1311Joy EvansAlma14.95
1412Nicole MaysOkemos14.99
1510October HarnsOkemos15.29
1610Elizabeth SchaferOkemos16.92
1710Aviana SkinnerGrand Ledge17.95
1812Jaiden DickmanSt. Louis22.81
1910Lydia JaggerGrand Ledge23.17
2012Libby SummerlandOwosso24.12
2111Abby MinnickEast Lansing24.39
2211Autumn ThompsonDeWitt25.69
2311Josie JenkinsonOwosso25.91
2411Nicole SchaferWilliamston26.03
2510Emma CrandellOwosso27.19
2611Ayla HolbenDeWitt27.35
2712Bryna Mead-O’BrienOkemos27.89
2810Miriam KlohaSt. Johns28.98
2912Dora HenryHaslett30.65
3011Ella ReavesHolt31.00
3111Mia WilliamsDeWitt32.04
3210Frances MelinnLansing Catholic32.68
339Sophia SchaferWilliamston32.87
349Alyssa KramerPewamo-Westphalia34.23
3512Melanie WernerPewamo-Westphalia37.32
3611Emily RathkaLaingsburg38.74
379Jaidyn NickelsCorunna39.75
389Grace WonchLansing Catholic40.36
3910Abbie SchneiderPewamo-Westphalia41.21
4010Madison AtenGrand Ledge41.50
4110Hailey CreisherLeslie41.71
4211Hayven ThielCorunna41.83
4310Anna PoppemaBath41.97
4410Abby RusselHaslett42.05
4512Maura LichielloHowell42.11
4611Julionna WestOwosso43.45
4711Erin LubahnLeslie44.21
4812Analise ChelottiDeWitt51.31
4910Reese SupianoskiWilliamston53.12
5011Natalie SummerlandOwosso55.84

Boys

Proj. PlaceBoys TeamAvg. ScoreAvg. PlaceWin %Top 5 %
1Alma1061.516395+
2Okemos1142.033095+
3Howell1192.46795+
4Pewamo-Westphalia1824.3989
5Grand Ledge2115.6450
6East Lansing2306.7331
7DeWitt2357.0317
8St. Johns2437.439
9Bath2719.03
10Corunna30010.34
11St. Louis30910.74
12Mason33511.98
13Haslett34111.97
14Leslie41914.71
15Ionia44815.84
16Eaton Rapids45115.68
17Lansing Catholic45816.29
18Saranac48117.44
19Williamston53619.29
20Fowlerville54819.73

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Nate CarmodyHaslett1.57
29Jack MacGregorHowell2.80
312Collin FarmerPewamo-Westphalia4.18
411Alex DonethMason5.54
511Dylan LydicHaslett5.59
610Thomas LarsonAlma6.91
712Ben MarchSt. Louis7.26
89Ezekiel BaltierraAlma7.76
911Nolan InglisDeWitt9.17
1010Ian MorganOkemos10.76
1112Isaac StaibSt. Johns11.20
1211Landon PestrueSt. Louis12.38
1312Michael CyrulEast Lansing13.79
1412Jacob MontgomeryIonia14.40
1510Benjamin RottierGrand Ledge14.74
1612Ali KudmaniAlma15.16
1712Matthew SchraubenSt. Johns18.77
1812Eden LampiEast Lansing19.61
1911Lucas WoodHowell20.73
2011Nathan BeemerOkemos20.84
2112Brennan McKoneDeWitt25.53
2212Carter HolmesBath26.67
2311Drake WallaceHowell26.87
249Simon ShuttOkemos27.22
2512Nathan DaySaranac27.26
2610Noah DevereauxLaingsburg27.49
2711Nathan WilkinsonOkemos28.58
2811Conner McCormickMason32.55
2911Simon ErfourthOwosso33.72
3012Noah DeLandHowell33.75
319Nolan LoundsGrand Ledge34.93
3210Elijah BaltierraAlma35.03
3312Liam HooverHowell35.14
3412Hunter HelminskiSaranac37.96
3512Gurshaan SidhuOkemos38.65
3611Allan GeorgePewamo-Westphalia39.02
379Wyatt WernerPewamo-Westphalia39.28
3811Luke SkidmoreBath40.68
399River FoxBath41.35
4010Malcolm CesarioOkemos41.80
4110Payton ChandlerCorunna42.47
4211Elijah HutchinsonGrand Ledge42.66
4311Bodie HeissAlma42.78
4412Andrew KoenigsknechtBath43.81
4510Aidan RokaCorunna45.44
4611Andrew FugazziOkemos46.98
4711Jack HuntingtonEaton Rapids48.12
4811Lucas MooreFowlerville49.15
499John KowatchPewamo-Westphalia50.76
5012Sam DonnellanEast Lansing52.52

MACOMB COUNTY

Trophies to Top-3 Teams
All-County for Top-21 Individuals

Girls

Proj. PlaceTeamAvg. PlaceAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Romeo1.002195+95+
2Utica2.438689
3Fraser3.289658
4Macomb Dakota3.299753
5Warren Regina5.05145
6Armada5.95175
7Macomb Lutheran North7.42256
8Utica Eisenhower7.61258
9Clinton Twp. Chippewa Valley9.01294
10Richmond10.47329
11Lakeview St. Clair Shores11.54344
12Utica Ford12.47354
13Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers12.79359
14Macomb L’Anse Creuse North13.55367
15Sterling Heights Stevenson14.47377

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Jayden HarbertsMacomb Dakota2.3
29Annie HrabovskyRomeo2.5
310Natalia GuaresimoRomeo2.7
410Emmerson ClorRomeo3.2
511Violet HrabovskyRomeo5.1
612Mariah BelmontMacomb Dakota7.6
711Olivia PurdyRomeo8.1
811Grace GrupidoFraser8.9
911Lillian DeskinsRomeo9.2
1010Siene MuraszewskiUtica10.4
119Emma BrownUtica10.9
1212Lauren ThomasNew Baltimore Anchor Bay13.1
1310Katelyn FrazierFraser13.8
1412Ava BaltierraArmada14.8
1512Gracie YoungbloodRomeo17.0
1612Remi FlanzFraser17.9
1711Brooklyn KhonArmada18.4
1810Brooke McFarlandUtica19.4
1912Kennedy RoskoppWarren Regina19.5
2011Elizabeth AmbroggioWarren Regina19.7
2110Olivia CereskaFraser20.0
2211Charlotte LongUtica Eisenhower20.9
2310Lidia ClancyMacomb Dakota21.9
2411Norah LesnerUtica22.5
2511Sophia AquinoUtica23.2
269Maggie BaginskiUtica Eisenhower24.7
2711Natalie LentineWarren Regina28.0
2812Samantha KookArmada29.3
299Aubrey RizzoMacomb Dakota32.0
3011Lorelei MahonWarren Regina32.4
3112Eleanor KroetschUtica34.4
3210Ryann SmitkaMacomb Dakota34.7
339Samantha WhitlamMacomb Lutheran North35.0
3410Eden FanteLakeview St. Clair Shores35.4
3512Grace GutmannClinton Twp. Chippewa Valley35.8
3611Shelby StabileHarrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse36.0
3711Julia TimpaMacomb Dakota36.8
3812Brianna AlbersRichmond38.0
3911Luciana RodriguezFraser38.4
409Lilly McNairUtica38.9
419Faith WesselMichigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers39.7
4210Jacalyn YakelUtica Eisenhower40.9
4310Kate MolloyFraser41.0
4412Emma DellLakeview St. Clair Shores44.5
4512Gabby FernandezWarren Regina45.0
469Lilianna PeaceClinton Twp. Chippewa Valley49.0
4710Paulina ChapmanRichmond49.7
489Kaitlyn RizzoMacomb Dakota49.8
4912Lydia MartoniFraser50.1
5010Abigail DenoyerArmada50.9

Boys

Proj. PlaceBoys TeamAvg. ScoreAvg. PlaceWin %Top 3 %
1Romeo621.248195+
2Macomb Dakota761.951695+
3Utica862.8495+
4New Baltimore Anchor Bay1113.97
5Utica Eisenhower2005.29
6Macomb L’Anse Creuse North2256.94
7Warren Cousino2327.64
8Macomb Lutheran North2348.05
9Fraser2357.98
10Utica Ford2539.57
11Clinton Twp. Chippewa Valley27810.69
12Lakeview St. Clair Shores31912.14
13Harrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse34212.86
14Sterling Heights Stevenson38114.36
15Michigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers38614.54

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Thomas WestphalNew Baltimore Anchor Bay1.3
212Vincent GuaresimoRomeo2.5
312Connor ClorRomeo3.8
410Harper WesleyUtica5.2
512Dylan PenberthyMacomb L’Anse Creuse North6.5
612Carter FoxMacomb Dakota6.6
712Tyler DonovanFraser7.8
812Tyler BrothersUtica Eisenhower7.9
912Brewer SnayMacomb Lutheran North10.2
1012Simon DavisMacomb Dakota11.2
1112Brandon PenberthyMacomb L’Anse Creuse North12.4
1211Colton HowellMacomb Dakota13.5
1311Lucas LaMilzaMacomb Dakota13.9
1412Ethan MuraszewskiUtica14.0
1512Luke OysterUtica Eisenhower16.3
1612Jack DeWaeleClinton Twp. Chippewa Valley17.9
1712Bryce GoodsellRomeo17.9
1812Zachary RubiczNew Baltimore Anchor Bay18.1
1911Aidan DalyHarrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse19.9
2010Luke AllenRomeo20.7
2112Silas SmithUtica20.9
2211Luke MorehouseUtica21.2
2312Michael MagnoliRomeo21.2
2410Charlie CurtisUtica26.5
2512Aidan LeslieNew Baltimore Anchor Bay27.3
2611Greg VogtNew Baltimore Anchor Bay28.1
2712Johnathan MitchellUtica Ford28.6
2812Paul GopezWarren Cousino28.6
2911Gavin FrandleUtica30.9
3010James BrickelRomeo31.9
3110Lance EdghillFraser32.6
3211Braden CinatoWarren Cousino34.6
3310Andrew ScheloskeMacomb Dakota34.7
3411John LonswaySterling Heights Stevenson34.9
3512Lucas ShemanskyFraser35.9
3612Jamison SnayMacomb Lutheran North36.3
3712Gabe RuschNew Baltimore Anchor Bay36.4
3811Alex HabarthHarrison Twp. L’Anse Creuse36.6
3911Owen GouldRomeo36.8
4011Noah RedmanMacomb Dakota40.8
4110Aaron HemstreetWarren Cousino40.9
4212Rhenier WeeksUtica Ford41.1
4310Ian PottsMichigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers43.6
4412Aaron FranzClinton Twp. Chippewa Valley43.8
4510Joseph KaletoMacomb Dakota44.4
4612Thomas PerezMichigan Athletic Club for Homeschoolers45.2
4710Aaron OstermanNew Baltimore Anchor Bay46.6
4811Levi ClairUtica48.8
4911Jensen McCutcheonLakeview St. Clair Shores51.0
5011Colden GrayUtica Eisenhower51.1

LENAWEE COUNTY

Trophies to Top-3 Teams
Medals to Top-20 Individuals

Girls

Proj. PlaceGirls TeamAvg. PlaceAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Adrian1.76705195+
2Tecumseh2.07752895+
3Clinton2.26762195+
4Onsted4.1092
5Blissfield4.82103
6Hudson5.99135
7Addison7.11191
8Adrian Lenawee Christian7.97205
9Sand Creek8.92220

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Emmry RossOnsted1.0
211Sophy SkeelsAdrian2.3
312Anastee DavisAdrian3.6
411Izzy BrooksAdrian Lenawee Christian4.0
59Ayda SkeelsAdrian4.8
611Madison MorrisTecumseh6.4
710Hope MillerBlissfield6.5
812Cylee ElkinsClinton7.6
912Allison BowlesClinton9.1
1010Hailey SillsBlissfield10.4
1111Stephanie HernandezAddison12.5
1212Samantha CootsClinton13.4
1311Jayla BrightHudson13.6
1410Claire CousineauTecumseh14.8
1511Allie EnglandOnsted16.7
1610Raegan BrosamerOnsted17.6
179Leila MorrisTecumseh18.0
1812Leah RorickMorenci19.3
1911Jessica WarrenTecumseh20.1
209Maya WhelanTecumseh20.4
2112June MillerBlissfield20.5
2211Aubrey ApplemanBritton Deerfield21.1
2310Aurelia BennettClinton21.2
2410Emersyn BachelderMorenci24.3
2510Annabelle CzeiszpergerHudson24.5
269London LandiniTecumseh24.7
279Camryn NowakTecumseh28.3
2812Yoselin Fermin-CamposAdrian29.3
299Izabel RaglowOnsted30.0
3011Sarah KingClinton30.3

Boys

Proj. PlaceBoys TeamAvg. ScoreAvg. PlaceWin %Top 3 %
1Adrian211.0095+95+
2Clinton982.0095+
3Onsted1423.7741
4Hudson1443.8543
5Adrian Madison1555.1615
6Tecumseh1656.27
7Sand Creek1717.20
8Adrian Lenawee Christian1808.25
9Morenci1838.66
10Blissfield1888.84

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Braylon PettyAdrian1.0
210Moises SalazarAdrian2.5
311Mitchell HiattOnsted2.5
412Matthew CanalesAdrian4.6
59Carter FennerAdrian6.2
69Cole HillegondsClinton7.4
712Alex CzeiszpergerHudson7.7
812Chase NyackAdrian9.5
912Jackson NyackAdrian9.9
109Silas SkeelsAdrian11.0
1112Grant FahleTecumseh11.4
1211Ian WaddellBlissfield11.9
1312Lucas GoodmanClinton11.9
1411Gabe ManchesterClinton13.1
1511Joel LangeAdrian Lenawee Christian16.3
1610Trenton FetterAdrian Madison18.4
1712William MarksBlissfield19.8
1810Paul McClureAdrian Madison20.0
1911Isaac St. JohnHudson20.9
209Landon WilkinsMorenci21.8
2111Owen Strieter-ByronTecumseh22.0
2212Nathan DanielsAdrian Lenawee Christian22.1
2311Max MartenTecumseh22.3
2411James BayesOnsted22.4
259Silas DanielsSand Creek22.4
2611Zachary MartinezMorenci24.9
2711Beau ShafferMorenci25.1
2811Eric RamseyClinton27.1
2911Jameson WatsonBritton Deerfield28.1
3010Nicholas SorrowHudson29.6

GMAA

No mention of trophies/medals on the info doc (or I missed it, very likely), so I went 30 deep on individuals

Girls

Proj. PlaceGirls TeamAvg. PlaceAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Muskegon Western Michigan Christian1.003995+95+
2Fruitport2.046695+
3Muskegon Reeths-Puffer3.619347
4Muskegon Mona Shores3.619447
5Whitehall4.761136
6Montague6.01142
7Muskegon Oakridge6.97174
8Muskegon Orchard View8.05242

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Grace VanderKooiMuskegon Western Michigan Christian1.1
212Tatum DykstraFruitport2.6
310Jersi BilekMuskegon Reeths-Puffer3.4
411Cami KraaiWhitehall4.1
512Eleanor KingshottMuskegon Western Michigan Christian8.0
69Leah SnellerMuskegon Western Michigan Christian8.7
712Lauren LeeFruitport9.1
811Valerie PollockFruitport10.2
912Abbie WiegersNorth Muskegon10.3
1012Grace FolkemaMuskegon Western Michigan Christian11.7
1110Ellery HornessMuskegon Mona Shores12.2
1212Merceydez PattonMuskegon Oakridge12.8
1312Cammie EricksonMontague12.9
149Kaylie RiksenMuskegon Western Michigan Christian13.8
1511Adalyn BrittonWhitehall13.9
1611Adrienne FluetteMuskegon Reeths-Puffer14.9
179Gabrielle ChevezMuskegon Reeths-Puffer17.9
1810Sylvia SkujinsNorth Muskegon18.7
1911Morgan LawrenceMuskegon Western Michigan Christian20.5
2011Diamond MadisonMuskegon Mona Shores20.5
2111Logan ClausenMuskegon Mona Shores20.9
2212Raegan RuelMuskegon Oakridge22.0
2310Ella GrimmMuskegon Mona Shores22.8
2411Grace TorschMontague26.1
2510Kaylynn PavligeFruitport26.3
2612Tresa DykstraFruitport26.4
2710Kendall BragintonMuskegon Mona Shores26.5
289Darcy KeefeMuskegon Reeths-Puffer26.6
299Treasure FleeseFruitport27.2
3010Kaylynn PavlichFruitport27.9

Boys

Proj. PlaceBoys TeamAvg. ScoreAvg. PlaceWin %Top 3 %
1Muskegon Reeths-Puffer601.257695+
2Fruitport721.902295+
3Muskegon Western Michigan Christian983.3262
4Whitehall1053.6537
5Montague1315.07
6Muskegon Mona Shores1456.02
7Muskegon Catholic Central1647.10
8North Muskegon1747.69
9Muskegon Oakridge2179.17
10Ravenna2409.83

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Jaxon AllenMuskegon Reeths-Puffer2.5
211Stewart WatersWhitehall2.6
311Matthias MorseMuskegon Western Michigan Christian3.2
411Kye GrantMuskegon Reeths-Puffer3.4
511Vincent PollockFruitport6.1
611Peyton RuelMuskegon Oakridge6.8
712Tate BradleyMuskegon Reeths-Puffer7.2
810Noah RaethMontague9.2
910Hunter ParsonsWhitehall9.7
1012Willem ParsekianMuskegon Mona Shores10.7
1112Clay JohnsonMontague15.3
1212Levi GlynnFruitport15.5
1312Evan Atkinson-MillerNorth Muskegon15.5
1412Ethan HoranFruitport16.2
1512Levi BolFruitport17.1
1612Graeson LawrenceMuskegon Western Michigan Christian18.7
1712Jacob LyonnaisMuskegon Catholic Central19.5
1812Alex WilberFruitport20.9
1911Alix DravesMontague21.4
2010Landon JohnsonFruitport21.4
2111Andrew BoeringaWhitehall23.2
2210Jack YonkmanMuskegon Reeths-Puffer24.0
239Barrett NanceNorth Muskegon24.5
2412Owen LyonnaisMuskegon Catholic Central24.8
2510Hayden FoxMuskegon Mona Shores25.1
2611Jamie NeelMuskegon Reeths-Puffer26.1
279Owen SytsemaMuskegon Western Michigan Christian26.4
2810Reuben AndersonMuskegon Western Michigan Christian26.4
2911Daniel MaresRavenna27.2
3012Jack WalkenhorstMuskegon Catholic Central30.0

DOWNRIVER GABRIEL RICHARD

(But really NEWS HERALD to us OGs)

Trophies to Top-3 Teams
All-Area to Top-25 Individuals

Girls

Proj. PlaceGirls TeamAvg. PlaceAvg. ScoreWin %Top 3 %
1Brownstown Woodhaven1.003295+95+
2Allen Park2.518189
3Wyandotte Roosevelt3.128771
4Riverview4.039227
5Grosse Ile4.399513

Boys

Proj. PlaceBoys TeamAvg. ScoreAvg. PlaceWin %Top 3 %
1Brownstown Woodhaven421.386295+
2Allen Park441.623895+
3Riverview863.0095+
4Wyandotte Roosevelt1094.00
5Riverview Gabriel Richard1295.08

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Logan RuffnerRiverview1.0
210Pierce SchefflerBrownstown Woodhaven2.2
312Caleb WynnAllen Park3.3
411Brady BoroniecAllen Park4.2
510Alex VazquezBrownstown Woodhaven4.3
612Evan SmithBrownstown Woodhaven6.5
712Hayden HolmesRiverview6.9
812Matthew MizziAllen Park8.6
910Rich FantiRiverview Gabriel Richard9.3
1012Ethan JohnsonWyandotte Roosevelt10.5
119Vincent JonesBrownstown Woodhaven12.3
1210Isaiah ClarkAllen Park12.6
139Jacob FerdubinskiRiverview Gabriel Richard15.7
1412Israel GarciaRiverview16.7
1511Jaime SaucedoMelvindale16.7
1612Gabriel NatividadTrenton17.0
1710Jackson RabyAllen Park17.9
1810Matthew CarbajoGrosse Ile19.0
1910Mateo ReyesBrownstown Woodhaven19.0
2012Alessandro FeliciBrownstown Woodhaven20.0
2111Landon HoffmanAllen Park20.1
229Calen AlexanderBrownstown Woodhaven20.8
239Connor BallWyandotte Roosevelt21.3
2411Jack FoxGrosse Ile23.7
259Noah AmoriWyandotte Roosevelt24.1
2612Ian KrampTrenton25.5
2711Aidan KubitzAllen Park25.7
2810Dominic BarrettoRiverview Gabriel Richard28.9
2911Matthew CaudillWyandotte Roosevelt29.6
3011Owen HassettTrenton29.9

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Payton SchefflerBrownstown Woodhaven1.3
212Ava TeedAllen Park Cabrini1.7
312Sparrow CentenoSouthgate Anderson3.5
49Hope NoalBrownstown Woodhaven4.0
510Eleanor GrantWyandotte Roosevelt5.4
612Claire BiretaAllen Park5.9
710Alyssa KorteGrosse Ile9.2
810Elliana PerugiBrownstown Woodhaven9.3
912Daniela HinojosRiverview9.5
1011Raelyn McLaughlinBrownstown Woodhaven9.7
1111Marisa ChueyTrenton12.2
1212Lauren MorenoWyandotte Roosevelt13.3
1310Avery BoggsRiverview13.4
1410Joslyn BechtolBrownstown Woodhaven15.1
159Julianne NadolskiSouthgate Anderson15.7
1611Anahi ChapaAllen Park15.7
179Chiamara OgbonnaBrownstown Woodhaven15.7
1811Mercedes DziendzielWyandotte Roosevelt17.3
1912Keira WoodRiverview18.6
2011Maya JusticeBrownstown Woodhaven20.4
2110Alicia SheltonGrosse Ile21.4
2212Abbie SawickiAllen Park22.5
2311Devyn DoreyTrenton23.1
249Adrianna ZubAllen Park25.5
259Whitney LauraGrosse Ile25.7
2612Nevaeh HarrisAllen Park25.8
2711Taylor KarasinskiGrosse Ile26.7
2811Grace KendziukAllen Park Cabrini27.4
2910Sophia MihalkoGrosse Ile29.5
3012Nicole TeedAllen Park Cabrini30.3
Uncategorized

2023 Rankings: County Week, Division 1

Portage, our great bellwether for the season’s progress, has come and passed. There were many affirmations and a few surprises. You’ll see a bit more movement in these rankings this week, as more recent meets are weighed more, early season meets mean less and less.

If you’ve followed these over the past few years, you may know the gist of these, but let’s break it down once again:

The individual ratings take into account all the meets listed here. There are a few meets missing that I’ll link to, but pretty much any meet with a significant number of athletes will have been calculated. An individual’s rating takes their best 75% of rated races (rounding up, so 4 of 5, 5 of 6, etc.), weighs them with more recent races having a higher weight, then spits out a final rating. The team rankings score those individuals as if they were in a meet against their entire division.

As a result of taking into the entire season into account, the rankings will be more conservative and less reactionary than most. Putting together a great performance once will bring about a tiny bit of movement, doing so repeatedly will elicit much greater change.

There are a few changes from previous years:

  • No more ratings of weekday, conference meets
    • Why? One, often these aren’t raced all out and end up underrating a runner. Two, to lessen my workload. I’d rather concentrate on these rankings and use the weekend invites that are more likely to be raced hard to determine the rankings.
  • Using the top 75% of races instead of 67%
    • Why? If I’m gonna use fewer overall races from a runner’s resume, I have to make up for it in some way.
  • No more individual rankings posted to social media
    • Why? I hate instances where a runner stagnates or falls back over the course of the season and it’s posted for the world to see. I recognize people want to know where they’re ranked, so just having it on the website is a happy medium.
  • More writeups focused on the top teams and individuals, rather than just handpicking one each week
    • I’ve found that when it comes toward state time, I know all the numbers and what a kid might run, but have a tough time pointing toward a narrative. Hopefully writing a little recap and what to look forward to will help in that regard. I started with three for the first rankings, then five this week, and so on.
    • But sadly not D1 this week. But as my own boss, I’m giving myself leeway as I’ve already written thousands of pages of material this year.
  • Posting these one division at a time
    • If you’ve noticed, I always go Division 4 first, trending towards Division 1. This is done intentionally! Traditional media always focuses on the larger schools. By focusing on the smaller divisions first, they get the love that they might not normally receive.

Unfortunately, the injury rule is in place, where if I don’t have a rating from the past month, that runner is taken out. If you’re willing to share (and I can understand why not – someone’s medical situation doesn’t have to be the public’s business) that your athlete or you yourself are healthy/injured, feel free. There are some exceptions based on situations that make sense. Hopefully these don’t rub salt in the wound of someone who’s already hurting.

Now I need to be serious for a minute. These are for fun. If you don’t like these fun rankings, you don’t need to participate, you don’t need to call me names, talk trash to your fellow competitors, or send rude emails. We good here? Enjoy.

WEEK THREE RANKINGS
WEEK FOUR RANKINGS
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK RANKINGS

Just wanted to get these out before work, so sadly, no writeups 😦

RankTeamRegionScoreChamp WkWeek 4Week 3Summer
1Romeo9881221
2Ann Arbor Pioneer51522113
3Brighton42833334
4Holland West Ottawa13199865
5Okemos23231111118
6Grand Haven13577559
7Northville638144410
8Saline53935972
9Traverse City West243387106
10Forest Hills Central346866815
11Rockford153012121412
12Oxford8577101097
13Davison462318151733
14Utica867622161820
15White Lake Lakeland770115312845
16Traverse City Central272413141616
17Clarkston874430413919
18Jenison175014131218
19Dexter476516212213
20Fraser980019192034
21Walled Lake Northern783227221314
22Rochester883824202637
23Macomb Dakota984217172327
24Ann Arbor Skyline485220293661
25Lake Orion886423281917
26Portage Central386926261528
27Zeeland West189029253042

Just wanted to get these out before work, so sadly, no writeups 😦

RankTeamRegionScoreChamp WkWeek 4Week 3Summer
1Brighton42052222
2Northville62371111
3Grand Haven12983334
4Ann Arbor Pioneer534456511
5Canton635745620
6Kalamazoo Central337887103
7Oxford838674419
8Troy8473617226
9White Lake Lakeland74981081112
10Romeo95099985
11Forest Hills Central35131110178
12Walled Lake Northern7544131477
13Jenison154715151516
14Livonia Churchill657912121326
15Clarkston86132211129
16Macomb Dakota96151413933
17Traverse City Central265317221414
18Plymouth666419163115
19Portage Central369616212610
20Utica870918191613
21Saline572321181818
22Zeeland West173020231921
23Bay City Western273023202437
24Lake Orion884428262023
25East Kentwood386624242145
26Traverse City West289626363428
27Dexter491129322322

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL RANKINGS

Just wanted to get these out before work, so sadly, no writeups 😦

RankGradeNameTeamRegion
112Rachel ForsythAnn Arbor Pioneer5
212Selma AndersonGrand Rapids Ottawa Hills3
311Lucy CookRochester8
412Jayden HarbertsMacomb Dakota9
59Annie HrabovskyRomeo9
610Natalia GuaresimoRomeo9
712Clara James-HeerForest Hills Central3
812Katie WatkinsH.H. Dow2
910Emmerson ClorRomeo9
1012Morgan BrownLivonia Churchill6
1111Cassie GarciaNorthville6
1212Ella ChristensenNorthville6
1310Ava PorrasHolland West Ottawa1
1411Valerie BeeckGrand Haven1
1512Lydia BowmanAnn Arbor Pioneer5
1611Violet HrabovskyRomeo9
179Anyla RobinsonDetroit Cass Tech5
1811Mallory BigelowOxford8
1910Addie BirkholzHolland West Ottawa1
2012Payton SchefflerBrownstown Woodhaven5
2112Layla KrayemLivonia Stevenson6
2211Ava AlicandroWhite Lake Lakeland7
2312Shannon GillahanOkemos2
2412Elaina (Laney) AligSaline5
2512Carrigan EberlyBrighton4
2611Chloe DeRidderGrandville1
2712Hannah DeRoeckLake Orion8
2812Natalie MelloAnn Arbor Pioneer5
2910Lydia LaMarraBrighton4
3011Isabelle BeckerBay City Western2
3111Grace TykockiGrand Blanc4
3211Ava PetersLivonia Franklin6
3311Elle BissettBrighton4
3412Braydee EllingOxford8
3512Ella KirkwoodTraverse City Central2
3612Allison MayerAnn Arbor Skyline4
3710Leah CorbyRochester Hills Stoney Creek9
3811Lauren WalkerHolt2
3912Izzy FazioForest Hills Northern3
4010Ava LawrenceEast Kentwood3
4111Alena BlumbergDexter4
4212Alisia OlteanuWalled Lake Western7
4310Addison HerrBloomfield Hills8
4412Sylvia Sanok DufalloAnn Arbor Pioneer5
459Gabriella FugazziOkemos2
4611Annie AlkemaKalamazoo Central3
4712Paige McArdleDavison4
4811Jordyn KlaasenZeeland West1
4910Cianah Budnik-RamosGrand Haven1
5010Abby VeitTraverse City West2

BOYS INDIVIDUAL RANKINGS

Just wanted to get these out before work, so sadly, no writeups 😦

RankGradeNameTeamRegion
112Seth NorderGrand Haven1
212Brendan HergerNorthville6
312Thomas WestphalAnchor Bay9
412Vishvaa RavishankarTroy8
512Vincent GuaresimoRomeo9
612Aiden MooreBattle Creek Lakeview3
711Ethan PowellNorthville6
89Kamari RonfeldtAnn Arbor Pioneer5
911Taye LevensonBloomfield Hills8
1010Kyle O’RourkeHighland-Milford7
1112Luke SulimanAnn Arbor Skyline4
1212Brandon AndersonDexter4
1312Ty ParkerWalled Lake Northern7
1412Noah SelvarajBay City Western2
1512Sebastian RamirezRoyal Oak7
1611Seth ConnerJenison1
1712Iain ForrestDavison4
1811Kian SchneeweisTroy8
1912Jasper CaneKalamazoo Central3
2012Tyler LangleyBrighton4
2111Alexander McArthurOxford8
229Jack MacGregorHowell4
2312Vincent Peterson SandAnn Arbor Pioneer5
2412Pierce GrzymkowskiWhite Lake Lakeland7
2512Connor ClorRomeo9
2612Luke CampbellBrighton4
2712Truman JohnsonSaline5
2810Aiden PengellyCanton6
2912Mitchell ClarkCanton6
3012Liam WaltersGrand Rapids Ottawa Hills3
3110Harper WesleyUtica8
3212Anirudh KrishnanPlymouth6
3311Evan NickolesEast Kentwood3
3411Mason LucasJenison1
3512Ian LewisLivonia Churchill6
3612Dylan PenberthyL’Anse Creuse North9
3712Carter FoxMacomb Dakota9
3812Evan RiceWalled Lake Northern7
3912Oliver MossBerkley7
4012Zack TruszkowskiTraverse City Central2
4112Logan BegemanPortage Central3
4211Malcolm SpiegleLivonia Churchill6
4312Willem DeGoodTraverse City West2
4411Ben EisnorGrand Haven1
4511Tyler BrockBrighton4
4611James CusickOxford8
4712Tyler BrothersUtica Eisenhower9
489Luka HammondGrand Haven1
4910John BlaskowskiSaginaw Heritage2
5011Jonah BillsBattle Creek Lakeview3
Uncategorized

2023 Rankings: County Week, Division 2

Portage, our great bellwether for the season’s progress, has come and passed. There were many affirmations and a few surprises. You’ll see a bit more movement in these rankings this week, as more recent meets are weighed more, early season meets mean less and less.

If you’ve followed these over the past few years, you may know the gist of these, but let’s break it down once again:

The individual ratings take into account all the meets listed here. There are a few meets missing that I’ll link to, but pretty much any meet with a significant number of athletes will have been calculated. An individual’s rating takes their best 75% of rated races (rounding up, so 4 of 5, 5 of 6, etc.), weighs them with more recent races having a higher weight, then spits out a final rating. The team rankings score those individuals as if they were in a meet against their entire division.

As a result of taking into the entire season into account, the rankings will be more conservative and less reactionary than most. Putting together a great performance once will bring about a tiny bit of movement, doing so repeatedly will elicit much greater change.

There are a few changes from previous years:

  • No more ratings of weekday, conference meets
    • Why? One, often these aren’t raced all out and end up underrating a runner. Two, to lessen my workload. I’d rather concentrate on these rankings and use the weekend invites that are more likely to be raced hard to determine the rankings.
  • Using the top 75% of races instead of 67%
    • Why? If I’m gonna use fewer overall races from a runner’s resume, I have to make up for it in some way.
  • No more individual rankings posted to social media
    • Why? I hate instances where a runner stagnates or falls back over the course of the season and it’s posted for the world to see. I recognize people want to know where they’re ranked, so just having it on the website is a happy medium.
  • More writeups focused on the top teams and individuals, rather than just handpicking one each week
    • I’ve found that when it comes toward state time, I know all the numbers and what a kid might run, but have a tough time pointing toward a narrative. Hopefully writing a little recap and what to look forward to will help in that regard. I started with three for the first rankings, then five this week, and so on.
  • Posting these one division at a time
    • If you’ve noticed, I always go Division 4 first, trending towards Division 1. This is done intentionally! Traditional media always focuses on the larger schools. By focusing on the smaller divisions first, they get the love that they might not normally receive.

Unfortunately, the injury rule is in place, where if I don’t have a rating from the past month, that runner is taken out. If you’re willing to share (and I can understand why not – someone’s medical situation doesn’t have to be the public’s business) that your athlete or you yourself are healthy/injured, feel free. There are some exceptions based on situations that make sense. Hopefully these don’t rub salt in the wound of someone who’s already hurting.

Now I need to be serious for a minute. These are for fun. If you don’t like these fun rankings, you don’t need to participate, you don’t need to call me names, talk trash to your fellow competitors, or send rude emails. We good here? Enjoy.

WEEK THREE RANKINGS
WEEK FOUR RANKINGS
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK RANKINGS

Grand Rapids Christian

Week Three: Conquered a strong field at Benzie then turned around and routed a very competitive OK White. Showing much strength early with frontrunners and depth, could very well put all five girls on the podium.

Week Four: More of the same at Ottawa Hills from the Eagle girls. All scoring girls placed in the top-11, with Adia Sikkema and Lucy Waalkes pulling up in the top-20.

Championship Week: Otsego Bulldog is often the first D2 showcase of the season, this year being no different, with 6 of the top 15 ranked teams in appearance. Just as every other meet, the Eagles up front, making up half of the first 8 finishers. Senior Payton Holtz is peaking at the right time to close her career, hitting sub-19 in her past two invites.

Despite missing one of their top girls, won fairly convincingly at Portage. Naomi Nelson’s return to the 18’s didn’t hurt either.

Otsego

Week Three: Sadly, we won’t see the Bulldogs at a major Michigan invitational until Jackson, but when you have the opportunity to run at the legendary Detweiller Park, you take it. Their season is setting up very similarly to last year, a strong top four plus a solid fifth. Though it appears their 5th spot might be improved from 2022.

Week Four: Placed 7th of 61 in the Richard Spring Invite down in Peoria. Now I don’t know much about Illinois XC at the moment, but that field had some legendary and recognizable names – York, Neuqua Valley, Palatine, Downer’s Grove, etc. Illinois Speed Ratings uses a similar methodology, but a different scale. Without getting too deep into it, converting to my scale, Detweiller rates out to about a +69 (+75 for boys) for its 2.97-to-3-mile course (highly debatable distance!) To make a short story long, the Bulldogs ran better than they have this season, even missing Taylor Mitchell.

Championship Week: In her final Bulldog Invite, senior Megan Germain ran her fastest time at Otsego’s signature home meet. Her 18:29 was good for a 6th place finish, fast enough for three consecutive top-10’s, and clutch enough to grant her Bulldogs a 2nd place finish.

Wrapped up Wolverine Conference dual/tri meet action with another 7-0 record.

Goodrich

Week Four: Changed things up on us! The past few years, the Martians have been at Holly, this year they headed further west to East Lansing. And evidenced by their 3rd place finish in the Elite Division, an excellent decision. These girls get it done through their pack, going seven deep, displacing fools left and right.

Championship Week: The Martians marked Shepherd as their territory in prep for Regionals. A 23-point win in a D2-centric field, even with Kamy Lauinger having a rough go of it.

Kamy Lauinger more than made up for Bluejay, coming across the Greater Flint line in first. Her 18:18 was a massive PB and helped the Martians win the Overall title at Cummings Center.

East Grand Rapids

Week Four: After missing Under the Lights, Drew Muller has returned, to EGR’s benefit. Her 3rd spot at Ottawa Hills meant the Pioneers really had to only score four. Combine that with personal bests from Adeline Armstrong and Sadey Seyferth and you have this traditional power rising through the ranks.

Championship Week: Great through three and finding contributors further back. Rory Workman (I swear there are thousands of Waalkes, Workmans, Kuzmas, and VanderKoois up this way) has dropped more than a minute from her Under the Lights debut.

Faced some adversity mid-race, but the performances of their sophomores in the final miles led to a top-10 finish at Portage.

Zeeland East

Week Three: An easy victory in the OK Green was sandwiched between a 2nd place in their division at Under the Lights and a 5th at Bredeweg. Emma Drnek has come into her own this year, giving the Chix a formidable 1-2 combo.

Championship Week: Another OK Green victory to go with a bronze at Otsego Bulldog. Taryn DiLaura has been a key figure on their varsity outfit, breaking 20:00 in two of her past three races, nearly a minute quicker than her freshman form.

CC Kuras masterfully moved up over the course of the Portage hills, going from over 100th at the mile to 68th at the finish as the Chix placed 6th.

St. Joseph

Week Four: The rare case of having two low sticks and needing to score three. Among those three, you could have reliable seniors such as Jade Murdoch or Ceci Ruchti. Or perhaps freshmen that are coming along nicely such as Lydia Johnson or Lily Cummings. Like many West Coast teams, the Bears traveled to Ottawa Hills on Friday, coming away from Session 2 placing 4th of 18.

Championship Week: Make it 4 straight and 13 of the past 14. The Bears have truly established a Berrien County dynasty.

Won the tiebreak over ZE. Sophomore Beatrice Peruchetti didn’t run her fastest race ever, but delivered a performance right in line with many in her initial cross season, in the mid-21’s.

St. Johns

Championship Week: The Redwing top three can hang with anybody. For instance, in the first two CAAC Red Jamborees – Fletcher, Schafer, and Young combined for 17 points. That’s in two meets, folks. SJ has won each of those jamborees.

Skipped the weekend invites, but once again put together a dominating CAAC Red effort. Their 5th and 6th girls (Lily Sackrider and Sylvia Thomas) came in before any other team’s 4th runner as the Redwings rolled.

Holland Christian

Out of any team in the D2 Portage field, the Maroons exemplified the patient racing style best. 285 points at the mile, 253 through two, then 219 at the finish, grabbing the 4th spot. Experience executing a plan in big spots gives this team major sleeper vibes come late October.

Spring Lake

Championship Week: Bea Reeser has been ON IT all year. First, opening with her best debut ever, then parlaying that into a personal best she’s been waiting to snatch since her sophomore year. Twice 6th in the OK Blue Jamborees, contributing to Laker victories each time.

The Lakers brought it to a whole new level at Portage. Personal bests up front + season bests from their depth = a 3rd place finish amongst D2’s best.

Frankenmuth

Tuesday, the quick runnin’ Shepherd course was home to personal bests from Lucy Conzelmann and Kaitlyn Miller as the ‘Muth captured the TVC Red title.

PlaceTeamRegionScoreChamp WkWeek 4Week 3Summer
1Grand Rapids Christian11661112
2Otsego131982221
3Goodrich152823443
4East Grand Rapids123204386
5Zeeland East113865735
6St. Joseph134196564
7St. Johns144367877
8Holland Christian1143911122810
9Spring Lake1145289911
10Frankenmuth154949658
11DeWitt1453613101014
12Ludington1058310151213
13Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg1261714131327
14Hudsonville Unity Christian1163815141417
15Linden1665120262420
16Owosso1467121191826
17Freeland1567412111112
18Petoskey1072423181518
19Dearborn Divine Child1672518222019
20Forest Hills Eastern1275324242225
21Warren Regina1775816201934
22Croswell-Lexington1777219171729
23Alma1578217161615
24Pontiac Notre Dame Prep1689725232544
25Grand Rapids South Christian1290629292922
26Chelsea1890926252321
27GR West Michigan Aviation1294832323816

Forest Hills Eastern

Week Three: That’s two years in a row that the Hawks have put the state on notice with an Under the Lights masterpiece. All five scorers were sub-17 on that humid, late August night. With three of those capable of low-16’s or better, much pressure will be placed on other teams to close that gap.

Week Four: Missing Brendan Hoving and Liam Hinman at Sparta, the Hawks still emerged victorious, eking out a 6-point victory over the home team. Youngster Steven Zawacki stepped up in a major way – he’s dropped more than a minute since Under the Lights.

Championship Week: Lost in the TJ Hansen spectacle was the fact that FHE stole the show in the elite race. The field contained tons of top teams from all divisions, yet the Hawks still prevailed. Nearly putting four under 16-flat will tend to lead to those victories.

Another show of their deep team where anyone can pop an amazing race. Lately, Luke Ueland has shown a few of those. Two straight sub-17’s, the latest one a 16:48 at Portage that was a minute faster than his junior effort.

Allendale

Week Four: There were a few doubters last week with the Falcons’ #4 ranking. I think their effort at Spartan proved a few wrong. Three in the top-15, half the points of any other school in the White Division.

Championship Week: Even if Grand Haven had Seth Norder competing, the Allendale Falcons would’ve still won their home invite. If that ain’t a show of how impressive they’ve been of late, I don’t know what is.

Sandwiched between that outstanding Allendale Falcon race and a 3rd place at Portage was another OK Blue conference win.

East Grand Rapids

Week Three: Still missing a piece, but those who have competed have had success. That could come in the form of an Alex Thole, who pulled a massive upset at Under the Lights or a Jack Edison, who navigated his way into the 16’s for the first time ever at the OK White Jamboree.

Week Four: That piece has arrived. Ryan Brinker, with only one race under his belt in ’23 has already raced faster than he had to this point in the ’22 season.

Championship Week: It wasn’t just FHE taking it to those D1 boys, the Pioneers were right there with them. Jonah Workman was a workhorse, reaching wayyyy into the 15’s to sneak into the top-10.

As Davis Christy continues to come back into the form he displayed late last year, continue to expect EGR to be in the hunt for a podium spot. His 16:43 was a 20 sec. season best and 12 seconds faster than his Portage race from 2022.

Grand Rapids Christian

Week Three: Saw FHE throw down the gauntlet on a Friday night, then woke up Saturday and decided to match it. Winners of Pete Moss by 88 points, then put seven guys in the top-16 at a star-filled OK White Jamboree.

Week Four: Probably underrated here because of their cruise through Christian Schools and the fact that we’re comparing against the entire state. In actual competition, the Eagles are undefeated, finding another clear victory this past weekend at Ottawa Hills.

Championship Week: It’s not as strong as in past years, but you can’t help who you run against, you can only aim to win. Which the Eagles did at Otsego, completing the sweep from their boys and girls squads. Senior Dylan Clark with the big breakthrough, knocking 15 seconds off his previous best.

Won another OK White Jamboree, making it 3 for 3 on the season.

Pinckney

Portage victory couldn’t have happened without the efforts of their 4th-6th guys. Zach Newman, Parker Hays, and Kyle Osborne each ran significantly better than they had all season. All personal bests, all sub-17, all valuable contributors on the path to another Portage win.

Alma

Championship Week: Ali Kudmani’s return coincides with the Panthers’ 3 meet victory streak – in conference, at Bluejay against many teams they could see at State, and this week at Birch Run.

After taking the weekend off (but still meeting for their traditional long run!), the Panthers returned to action Tuesday, where they won the TVC Red title. Of their 11 athletes, 7 ran a personal best on the Shepherd course.

Adrian

Championship Week: Carter Fenner and Matthew Canales have been steady as they come, both trending towards the 16’s as the Maples have held their own in the SEC White and picked up a victory at Jackson.

The Nyack brothers brought their senior experience to Portage, filling in the 4th and 5th spots as the Maples snuck into the top-5.

Otsego

Championship Week: The Bulldogs were missing a few of their top boys at home, perhaps Jackson was a better show of their capabilities. On those rolling Ella Sharp hills, the Dawgs packed up between 16:39 and 17:02, placing right in the middle of a field complete with D1 teams.

Thanks to the presence of 16th-ranked Plainwell, the boys side of the Wolverine Conference is a bit tougher than the ladies. At the tail end of conference competition, one of the older rivalries in Michigan HS sports took place, the Bulldog Boys prevailing by a 5 point margin over Plainwell.

Marshall

Week Four: Even missing Kaiden Gore (their five guy) at Holly, the Redhawks triumphed in the D3 race. With five divisions there, you get a mix of D2 and D3 teams in the 3rd Division, but even if Marshall was in the 2nd Division this past weekend, odds are that they’d win. When you have four boys capable of going sub-17, many possibilities are on the table.

Championship Week: These past two years, Connor Griffith has been a kid hellbent on dropping time. From 10th to 11th grade, he stormed from the 18’s to the very low-17’s. Now he’s knocking on the door of the 15’s, hitting 16:05’s at both Stockbridge and Barney Roy.

Gotta appreciate schools that represent their area. Would’ve been easy to travel to Portage for all the hoopla, instead the Redhawks hosted the Calhoun County meet. Taking the first four spots, their boys captured the victory for an excellent kick off to their championship season.

Petoskey

Have been steadily dialing it in, moving down in the ranks these past few weeks. That descent has only been accelerated with the addition of Tommy Farley in the last two weekends.

RankTeamRegionScoreChamp WkWeek 4Week 3Summer
1Forest Hills Eastern121871113
2Allendale112303344
3East Grand Rapids122644231
4Grand Rapids Christian112682422
5Pinckney163881123296
6Alma1542757510
7Adrian184556675
8Otsego1347189813
9Marshall1248975615
10Petoskey105141216159
11Holland Christian1153198218
12Sparta1057710101017
13Gladwin106161412912
14Frankenmuth1562613151321
15Spring Lake1164220181818
16Plainwell1364815111237
17Yale1766417131119
18Flint Powers Catholic1569618222025
19Fremont106981921NR14
20Hamilton1171316191916
21St. Clair1773524141431
22Clio1578821241728
23Chelsea188412320237
24Parma Western1484622272527
25St. Johns1492126302834
26Shepherd1593527282633
27Flint Kearsley1594328293045

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL RANKINGS

Gail Vaikutis

Week Three: Her 18-flat at Lakeview was a massive personal best and over 80 seconds faster than her 2022 performance. In track, she was able to display great speed and now we’re witness to her strength.

Week Four: Gail’s just out here stacking personal best after personal best. Similar conditions, similar courses, 22 second improvement from week to week. Gail now owns the fastest time AND best rating in Division 2.

Championship Week: A senior going out with wins all over the place. In conference, in county, and in her college decision, recently committing to Michigan.

The pack of four at the mile turned into a pack of three by two miles, and by the finish, Gail was the only one left standing.

Natalie VanOtteren

Week Four: Sub-18 at Ottawa Hills was the 3rd of her career and 40+ seconds faster than her ’22 effort on the banks of the Grand River.

Championship Week: Four straight wins for this Eagle senior. One of those was a 17:35 personal best at Cougar Falcon, another a 17:43 effort at the Otsego D2 Showcase.

Three years of competing at Portage. Three top-10 finishes, two sub-18’s, and a 16 second improvement from 2022 to 2023.

Elena Figueroa

Week Three: Right alongside Vaikutis at both their home invite and the PC Early Bird. Missed out on a great time at Lakeview, I hope for non-injury reasons. Regardless, her early season best is already an improvement from her sophomore year.

Week Four: Her first race in over three weeks, Elena hopped right back on the wagon with a 17:44 at Riverside. A minute faster than her 2022 effort there and a 35 second personal best.

Championship Week: A slight, ever so slight personal best at Cougar Falcon is still a personal best. 17:44.0 to 17:43.9 counts for me. Elena and Gail have gone 1-2 in both of the SMAC West meets along with Berrien County – all Bear victories.

Portage just another example of how even the fastest of the fast can improve. Her 18:41 last fall was among the best efforts of her sophomore year. Her 17:43 on Saturday is what we’ve come to expect. Funny how those expectations change over time.

Ava Schafer

Week Three: Adjusting very well to the high school scene. After taking her lumps with a second-place finish at Under the Lights, she’s ripped off two consecutive victories. All mid-18 efforts from this young freshman. The Redwings have some light racing in their future, so we’ll see how much she’s improved come late September at Shepherd.

Week Four: The Redwings took the weekend off racing and well, that looks to be to Ava’s benefit. Girl just blasted a 17:48 to capture the first CAAC Red Jamboree.

Championship Week: Stuck her nose right in there at Bluejay, heading out with the lead girls, coming through the mile in 5:34. Ava faded a bit, but got a good look of what she’ll need to do when similar runners race her in a month. Comparing against only D2 girls in that Elite section, Ava did place 1st of all 46, so she’s performing admirably against her competition.

Freshman just quietly winning another CAAC Red Jamboree. Excellent opportunity for some high-level racing this weekend over at Greater Lansing.

Katie Berkshire

Championship Week: Has been a barrier-busting season for Berkshire. She first slipped under 19:00 at the Mud Run of all places, then has ripped off three consecutive low-18 efforts at Cadillac, Shepherd, and Mancelona.

Impressed by her ability to recover. Three low-18 efforts in a seven day stretch. Bluejay, Mancelona, and then Portage.

Drew Muller

Week Four: Just announced her commitment to Virginia, a great institution for its education, history, and distance running (the Hoos are currently ranked #11). I’m sure Drew will contribute there as she does here, consecutive mid-18 efforts to begin her senior year.

Championship Week: I believe her trip to Shepherd was the first of her career, and that initial run through produced her best mark of the year, an 18:16.

Unfortunately had to drop out of the race this past weekend, but I’m sure this proud champ will be back for the upcoming championships.

Emma Hoffman

Championship Week: Think of all the success, all the accomplishments over Otsego’s past ~15 years. Three titles, a runner-up, plenty of state appearances. And atop of them all, time-wise, was Emma’s 18:03 from this past weekend.

Portage pace may have been a little quick early, as she fell back from 9th to 14th. But this sophomore has shown she can learn from midseason races and apply to bigger races down the stretch. This isn’t the last we’ll see of her.

Mary Richmond

Championship Week: Four years of races at Bluejay – all in the low-18’s, all in the top-15. The Frankenmuth senior has taken on a lighter load than in years past and should be ready to roll for the coming month.

The Mary Richmond senior year tour continued this week with the culmination of a historic TVC-8/Red career. By my count, four overall championships for this Tampa-bound senior.

Emma Drnek

Just when you thought she couldn’t go any lower – she does. 18:12 at Otsego Bulldog, another personal best in a season full of them. Back to the expectations mentioned earlier for Elena. If you had told me she’d run 18:29 at Portage, I’d have said that was an outstanding season. Scary that it was only her 3rd best time of the season.

Meghan Ford

Couldn’t be happier to mention this girl here. It’s been quite a four-year journey for Meghan, three All-States, a Greater Lansing title, plenty of finishes in the 17’s and 18’s. A great career.

RankGradeNameTeamRegion
112Gail VaikutisSt. Joseph13
212Natalie VanOtterenGrand Rapids Christian11
311Elena FigueroaSt. Joseph13
49Ava SchaferSt. Johns14
510Katie BerkshireGaylord10
612Drew MullerEast Grand Rapids12
710Emma HoffmanOtsego13
812Mary RichmondFrankenmuth15
911Emma DrnekZeeland East11
1012Meghan FordMason14
1112Emily TomesGrand Rapids Catholic Central11
1210Ellie ScholmaGrand Rapids Christian11
1312Logan BrazeeOtsego13
1410Lilah PoelGrand Rapids Christian11
1511Sadey SeyferthEast Grand Rapids12
1611Summer BrowerLudington10
1712Naomi NelsonGrand Rapids Christian11
1811Sophy SkeelsAdrian18
1911Kamryn LauingerGoodrich15
2012Jenna PilachowskiMonroe Jefferson18
2112Payton HoltzGrand Rapids Christian11
2211Natalia DeMeaChelsea18
239Clara KaczorFreeland15
2412Allison KuzmaZeeland East11
2512Megan GermainOtsego13
2612Emma DeVriesGR West Michigan Aviation12
2711Ezgi KurtAlma15
2811Ava CrewsMiddleville Thornapple-Kellogg12
2912Addison WashlerForest Hills Eastern12
3010Natalie FoltzFrankenmuth15
3111Eva ThompsonCroswell-Lexington17
329Olivia HollebeekHolland Christian11
3311Layla JordanGoodrich15
3412Anastee DavisAdrian18
359Caroline RandallHastings12
3612Abby YoungSt. Johns14
3712Camille DeColaMarshall12
3810Samantha BrownClio15
399Jaelyn RayPinckney16
409Eliana StobHolland Christian11
4112Tatum DykstraFruitport11
4212Kyla MeyersSpring Lake11
4310Linnea PaigeFremont10
449Johanna MulderHolland11
4512Nora O’LearyPetoskey10
4612Clara FletcherSt. Johns14
479Ayda SkeelsAdrian18
4810Brooklynn BrownCadillac10
4912Ellia AgarGrand Rapids South Christian12
5011Mea D’AgostinoOrchard Lake St. Mary’s16

BOYS INDIVIDUAL RANKINGS

Connell Alford

Week Four: Week Three: Cross country is definitely his thing. Facing some fierce competition at Lamplighter, Connell laid down the hammer early en route to a large margin of victory.

Week Four: Unfortunately, couldn’t pull off the win at Spartan, but he did finish first amongst all Michigan competition. His 15:09 nearly matched the 15:06 from last year, and when you’re in the ballpark of your state-winning self, you know you’re in a good place.

Competed in his first SEC White Jamboree of the year, grabbing his third conference win in these past three years. A solid block of training setting up for the future showdowns in the coming months.

Moved up to the D1 race at Portage to test his fitness against the most populated division in Michigan (and some Ohio teams). Came away with a 3rd place finish, his third top-10 placing there.

TJ Hansen

Week Three: Just continuing and building from his track accomplishments. 15:39 at Under the Lights was a personal best, 15:13 at John Bruder was a massive personal best. It’s a shame Freeland is on the smaller side of D2 schools, we sadly avoid a matchup with Evan Loughridge at Holly.

Week Four: Of the 93 boys that ran at both John Bruder and Holly, only 22 ran faster at Holly. TJ was 0.5 seconds slower, showing his 15:14 through the sharp turns and hills at Springfield Oaks can be sub-15 on the right course on the right day.

An absolutely masterful performance at Bluejay, negative splitting to a 14:46. Let’s just put it this way – in early September, Shepherd hosted the Jeff Drenth Memorial COLLEGE meet. TJ’s 14:46 would have won that.

Quickly bounced back from Portage (and even Bluejay the week prior) to capture his third consecutive TVC-8/Red title in as many years as he’s been competing.

Evan Loughridge

Week Three: “Opener at Possum Hollow was a 20+ second win over a ton of talented D1 runners. He’ll be facing some potential D2 All-Staters this weekend at Holly.”

Week Four: 15 seconds at a mile, 30+ at two, and 36 at the finish, Evan’s 15:35 win at Holly was allll on his lonesome. For many that would be a mental grind, but it’s more of the same for this tough-minded kid. His performance on Saturday was over 25 seconds faster than what he raced to in 2022 and given how his October played out last year, big goals are there for the taking.

After working on their toughness at Bennett Park, the Pirates head toward Portage, the site of Evan’s junior breakout race. All indicators show he’s ready to shock us again.

While others left D2 for greener pastures, Evan stuck around with his Pirate teammates. The result is something that can never be taken away. A win for himself and a win for Pinckney, besting his long-standing personal record.

Solomon Kwartowitz

Week Four: Hung in there pretty well for his first real huge effort of the season. A 15:32 in Spartan Elite earned Kwartowitz a 7th place (5th amongst Michiganders) and a massive personal best.

Each year, Cranbrook takes the trip down to Indiana to run in the Culver Academies Invitational. Solomon’s 15:38 there was 40 seconds faster than where he was in 2022, coming back from injury. He placed a second behind Kyle Grove, who just ran a 15:17 at Lavern Gibson. My guess based on limited evidence is that Solomon is ready to head toward the very low-15’s.

Just as his training partner Ethan Pruzinsky, strategically broke away from the pack early at Possum Hollow. His competitors couldn’t make up the distance on the double hill and he had enough momentum on the lengthy downhill to secure a County title.

Alex Thole

Week Four: State Champions, national qualifiers, insane freshmen, talented underclassmen… Alex has won against them all and we’re only in mid-September. Three races, three wins, all considerably better than his 2022 best.

Over the past two years, Alex has surely benefitted from the BluejayBoost. First at the MITCA race, the home of his initial sub-16, the one that paved the way for the enormous success this year. Then again on Saturday, just a show of his progress, 30 seconds quicker than that breakthrough.

Busy week for Alex, nabbing his 2nd OK White win to go along with a 2nd place Portage finish.

Sean Pettis

Nestled in between his past two WMC Lakes wins was a 15:24 at Cougar Falcon, first amongst a bevy of potential All-Staters.

Busy week for Sean as well, winning his 3rd WMC Lakes jamboree, following it up with a 3rd place Portage placing.

Nate Carmody

The Haslett senior has laid low these past few weeks, nabbing his second consecutive win at DeWitt, which was his fourth sub-16 in a row.

Greater Lansing will be as competitive as ever and Nate should be right in the mix. As in past weeks, he’s been laying low on the major invites, just quietly throwing down a 25+ second win at the Country Mill Classic.

Jack Bidwell

Has won all but two of his races this year. Included in those wins have been two I-8 jamborees and a Calhoun County championship.

Braylon Petty

Hard to believe a school as close as Adrian hadn’t traveled to Jackson in three years. But Braylon showed that he remembered how to attack those long, gradual downhills, rolling to a 15:50 victory.

Back-to-back top-10’s at Portage for Braylon, his 15:49 also 5 seconds faster than his 2022 effort.

Noah Lambers

A look at how far Noah has come: between his Portage Invite as a sophomore and as a senior, he improved by over 150 seconds (18:14 to 15:36).

RankGradeNameTeamRegion
112Connell AlfordChelsea18
211TJ HansenFreeland15
312Evan LoughridgePinckney16
412Solomon KwartowitzBloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood16
512Alex TholeEast Grand Rapids12
612Sean PettisFremont10
712Nate CarmodyHaslett14
811Jack BidwellMarshall12
912Braylon PettyAdrian18
1012Noah LambersHolland11
1111Simon TriezenbergGrand Rapids Christian11
1211Colin MurrayDearborn Divine Child16
1312Logan RuffnerRiverview18
1411Henry DixonForest Hills Eastern12
1510Jonah WorkmanEast Grand Rapids12
1612Brendan HovingForest Hills Eastern12
1712Caleb PalmreuterGladwin10
1812Elliott SirianniClio15
1912Gregory JanesakSparta10
2010Ronnie SilveiraAllendale11
2111Kilian WhalenAllendale11
2210Owen MetzgerSparta10
2311Alex DonethMason14
2412Liam HinmanForest Hills Eastern12
2511Dylan LydicHaslett14
2612Ryan BrinkerEast Grand Rapids12
2712Nolan PinionLake Fenton16
2811Dominic LowrieBattle Creek Harper Creek12
2910Thomas LarsonAlma15
3011Will EngbersHolland Christian11
319Ezekiel BaltierraAlma15
3212Aiden KruegerNiles13
3312Paul MoorePinckney16
3410Moises SalazarAdrian18
3511Nolan InglisDeWitt14
3612David MurphyFlint Powers Catholic15
3711Nolan LonguskiShepherd15
3811Parker TiethofAllendale11
3911Abatu DykstraHamilton11
4012Shane IzzardPetoskey10
4112Cooper JacobsenForest Hills Eastern12
429Bryce CahoonShepherd15
4312Shay WhiteSt. Joseph13
4411Seth MeadGladwin10
4512Brewer SnayMacomb Lutheran North17
4611Henry CoxPlainwell13
4712Ethan SandulaPinckney16
4812Isaac StaibSt. Johns14
4912Connor GriffithMarshall12
5012Luke GlasgowSpring Lake11