Hard to fathom, but we’re a month out from Regionals. Championship Season is coming soon, starting this week with the Battle Creek City Meet, Berrien County, then next week with Oakland County and Wayne County, advancing further on with our many area and conference championships. The weather is beginning to turn, mornings becoming cooler, leaves transforming into their beautiful fall hues, and most important – times are quickening and competition is heating up.
Given this juncture, time for another look at the regional projections. These follow many of the same rules as the division rankings. Using an individual’s races from here, a total rating is created by taking the top 75% of a runner’s races and weighing them toward more recent meets. Those ratings are then ranked for each region/division, spitting out a score that is used for the rankings. One added factor this week – filtering out athletes that haven’t competed over the past month, which I sadly have to assume are injured or no longer competing.
These might be much different than the athletic.net hypothetical meet. Anet uses the best performance from the season. I take more races into account, as I feel the entire resume speaks a greater volume about someone. Anet uses jamborees and duals, for which I don’t have time to calculate. Anet doesn’t account for course differences. If you take the 160 boys that ran at both Holly and Jackson, on average the Jackson times were 30 seconds faster. We have great coaches in this state that promote week-to-week improvement, but clearly there are differences in courses (and there are short/questionable ones too)! I’m not saying one is better than the other, just that I prefer my own and my bet is that they’ll be more accurate when we do this again next month.
REGION 17 SUMMER PREVIEW
REGION 9 SUMMER PREVIEW
Major Movers
Those that have moved up a considerable amount or are unforeseen additions
Warren Regina Girls
Madison Heights Lamphere Boys
Samantha Whitlam, Macomb Lutheran North
Lorelei Mahon, Warren Regina
Samantha Kook, Armada
Brynn Hurley, Croswell-Lexington
Lilyana Bratt, St. Clair
Ava Baltierra, Armada
Pete Lutz, Madison Heights Lamphere
Dylan Schumann, St. Clair
Jerry Westrick, St. Clair
Tiny Movers
Those that have moved up just a tiny bit, but have improved nonetheless.
Armada Boys
Darrah Mackenzie, Armada
Natalie Lentine, Warren Regina
Kale Kovach, Yale
Jamison Snay, Macomb Lutheran North
Vinny Schweihofer, St. Clair
Brewer Snay, Macomb Lutheran North
Steady At The Top
May be most impressive of all, teams or individuals that were projected to win or qualify and are still in those spots. Much tougher to be the hunted than the hunter.
Croswell-Lexington Girls
Armada Girls
Yale Boys
St. Clair Boys
Macomb Lutheran North Boys
Eva Thompson, Croswell-Lexington
| Place | Girls Team | Score | Division Rank |
| 1 | Armada | 51 | 22 |
| 2 | Warren Regina | 52 | 16 |
| 3 | Croswell-Lexington | 55 | 19 |
| 4 | St. Clair | 95 | |
| 5 | Macomb Lutheran North | 126 | |
| 6 | Marysville | 147 | |
| 7 | Richmond | 188 | |
| 8 | Marine City | 227 | |
| 9 | Yale | 233 | |
| 10 | Madison Heights Lamphere | 266 | |
| 11 | St. Clair Shores Lake Shore | 344 | |
| 12 | Harper Woods | 383 |
| Place | Grade | Name | Team |
| 1 | 11 | Eva Thompson | Croswell-Lexington |
| 2 | 12 | Ava Baltierra | Armada |
| 3 | 12 | Morgan Newton | Croswell-Lexington |
| 4 | 11 | Brooklyn Khon | Armada |
| 5 | 12 | Lilyana Bratt | St. Clair |
| 6 | 11 | Elizabeth Ambroggio | Warren Regina |
| 7 | 11 | Brynn Hurley | Croswell-Lexington |
| 8 | 12 | Kennedy Roskopp | Warren Regina |
| 9 | 11 | Natalie Lentine | Warren Regina |
| 10 | 12 | Samantha Kook | Armada |
| 11 | 11 | Lillian Rutallie | Marysville |
| 12 | 12 | Darrah Mackenzie | Armada |
| 13 | 11 | Lorelei Mahon | Warren Regina |
| 14 | 9 | Samantha Whitlam | Macomb Lutheran North |
| 15 | 9 | Gabriella Komarowski | St. Clair |
| Place | Boys Team | Score | Division Rank |
| 1 | Yale | 35 | 14 |
| 2 | St. Clair | 36 | 16 |
| 3 | Macomb Lutheran North | 76 | |
| 4 | Madison Heights Lamphere | 151 | |
| 5 | Armada | 170 | |
| 6 | Marysville | 171 | |
| 7 | Marine City | 179 | |
| 8 | Richmond | 196 | |
| 9 | Croswell-Lexington | 237 | |
| 10 | Harper Woods | 240 | |
| 11 | Detroit East English | 334 |
| Place | Grade | Name | Team |
| 1 | 12 | Brewer Snay | Macomb Lutheran North |
| 2 | 12 | Blake Ferguson | Yale |
| 3 | 12 | Giovanni Pardo-Keegan | Yale |
| 4 | 12 | Vinny Schweihofer | St. Clair |
| 5 | 12 | Dylan Distelrath | St. Clair |
| 6 | 12 | Acer Campbell | Yale |
| 7 | 9 | Ethan Kreger | St. Clair |
| 8 | 11 | Jerry Westrick | St. Clair |
| 9 | 12 | Anthony Goatley | Madison Heights Lamphere |
| 10 | 12 | Jamison Snay | Macomb Lutheran North |
| 11 | 11 | Kale Kovach | Yale |
| 12 | 12 | Dylan Schumann | St. Clair |
| 13 | 11 | Wyatt Murtos | Yale |
| 14 | 11 | Teddy Rutkofske | Yale |
| 15 | 11 | Pete Lutz | Madison Heights Lamphere |
Major Movers
Those that have moved up a considerable amount or are unforeseen additions
Macomb Dakota Girls
Utica Eisenhower Girls
Grosse Pointe South Boys
Utica Eisenhower Boys
Lauren Thomas, Anchor Bay
Katelyn Frazier, Fraser
Lilian Deskins, Romeo
Luke Oyster, Utica Eisenhower
David Rochon, Grosse Pointe North
Lucas LaMilza, Macomb Dakota
Colton Howell, Macomb Dakota
Simon Davis, Macomb Dakota
Tiny Movers
Those that have moved up just a tiny bit, but have improved nonetheless.
Port Huron Northern Girls
Remi Flanz, Fraser
Olivia Purdy, Romeo
Leah Corby, Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
Natalia Guaresimo, Romeo
Annie Hrabovsky, Romeo
Bryce Goodsell, Romeo
Brandon Penberthy, L’Anse Creuse North
Tyler Brothers, Utica Eisenhower
Dylan Penberthy, L’Anse Creuse North
Carter Fox, Macomb Dakota
Steady At The Top
May be most impressive of all, teams or individuals that were projected to win or qualify and are still in those spots. Much tougher to be the hunted than the hunter.
Romeo Girls & Boys
Fraser Girls
Macomb Dakota Boys
Anchor Bay Boys
Jayden Harberts, Macomb Dakota
Thomas Westphal, Anchor Bay
| Place | Girls Team | Score | Division Rank |
| 1 | Romeo | 23 | 1 |
| 2 | Macomb Dakota | 86 | 19 |
| 3 | Fraser | 88 | 17 |
| 4 | Rochester Hills Stoney Creek | 100 | |
| 5 | Grosse Pointe South | 118 | |
| 6 | Port Huron Northern | 219 | |
| 7 | Utica Eisenhower | 225 | |
| 8 | Grosse Pointe North | 237 | |
| 9 | St. Clair Shores Lakeview | 254 | |
| 10 | Chippewa Valley | 258 | |
| 11 | L’Anse Creuse North | 314 | |
| 12 | Anchor Bay | 322 | |
| 13 | L’Anse Creuse | 357 |
| Place | Grade | Name | Team |
| 1 | 12 | Jayden Harberts | Macomb Dakota |
| 2 | 9 | Annie Hrabovsky | Romeo |
| 3 | 10 | Natalia Guaresimo | Romeo |
| 4 | 10 | Emmerson Clor | Romeo |
| 5 | 11 | Violet Hrabovsky | Romeo |
| 6 | 10 | Leah Corby | Rochester Hills Stoney Creek |
| 7 | 12 | Mariah Belmont | Macomb Dakota |
| 8 | 11 | Grace Grupido | Fraser |
| 9 | 11 | Olivia Purdy | Romeo |
| 10 | 11 | Lillian Deskins | Romeo |
| 11 | 10 | Katelyn Frazier | Fraser |
| 12 | 12 | Lauren Thomas | Anchor Bay |
| 13 | 12 | Gracie Youngblood | Romeo |
| 14 | 12 | Remi Flanz | Fraser |
| 15 | 12 | Morgan Deenik | Grosse Pointe South |
| Place | Boys Team | Score | Division Rank |
| 1 | Romeo | 53 | 10 |
| 2 | Macomb Dakota | 57 | 13 |
| 3 | Anchor Bay | 108 | |
| 4 | Grosse Pointe South | 156 | |
| 5 | L’Anse Creuse North | 167 | |
| 6 | Port Huron Northern | 174 | |
| 7 | Utica Eisenhower | 187 | |
| 8 | Grosse Pointe North | 199 | |
| 9 | Rochester Hills Stoney Creek | 221 | |
| 10 | Chippewa Valley | 250 | |
| 11 | Fraser | 285 | |
| 12 | St. Clair Shores Lakeview | 293 | |
| 13 | L’Anse Creuse | 307 | |
| 14 | Warren DeLaSalle | 382 | |
| 15 | Warren Woods Tower | 436 | |
| 16 | Roseville | 525 |
| Place | Grade | Name | Team |
| 1 | 12 | Thomas Westphal | Anchor Bay |
| 2 | 12 | Vincent Guaresimo | Romeo |
| 3 | 12 | Connor Clor | Romeo |
| 4 | 12 | Carter Fox | Macomb Dakota |
| 5 | 12 | Dylan Penberthy | L’Anse Creuse North |
| 6 | 12 | Tyler Brothers | Utica Eisenhower |
| 7 | 12 | Simon Davis | Macomb Dakota |
| 8 | 11 | Colton Howell | Macomb Dakota |
| 9 | 12 | Brandon Penberthy | L’Anse Creuse North |
| 10 | 11 | Lucas LaMilza | Macomb Dakota |
| 11 | 12 | Luke VanderHeuvel | Port Huron Northern |
| 12 | 12 | Bryce Goodsell | Romeo |
| 13 | 12 | David Rochon | Grosse Pointe North |
| 14 | 12 | Jack DeWaele | Chippewa Valley |
| 15 | 12 | Luke Oyster | Utica Eisenhower |
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 