Blog

Boys Adjustment: +5
Girls Adjustment: +5

(These will probably be a bit fast all weekend. Everyone running with their season on the line tends to do that.)

PROJECTIONS

How Right/Wrong Was I? 17 of 18 on the top 3 teams. Cadillac Girls – you got me.

KINGS AND QUEENS OF THE REMUS HILLS

I will highlight one kid from each race for a little writeup. With Regionals and their survive and advance attitude, I’ll try to shout out someone who extended their season another week when they weren’t expected to, or contributed to a team that came in with a clutch performance. Of course, that leaves out many athletes who gave a great effort, and all of the athletes that were winners for toeing the line this weekend. Congrats to all.

Adam Ogg, Sparta: In a narrow, congested top 3, you can point to pretty much anyone as a deciding factor. Adam was perhaps the biggest one in Sparta’s victory, shaving 13 seconds off his previous best. If he had run a 5 second personal best, that wouldn’t have been enough, but every place counts when you win by 2 points.

Avery Mickelson, Cadillac: Coming out of the woods at ~4k, the Vikings looked done for. But Avery, Ellie Cool, and Marisa Mazza just kept picking off girls, nabbing enough bodies to get that 3^rd spot. Avery’s effort here on this difficult track was a 14 second season best.

Logan Patrick, Manton: Matched what he threw down last week at the NW Michigan Meet of Champions. The confidence gained from his 17:13 personal best resulted in another equally impressive effort, 17:19, finishing 9^th (and was projected 16^th).

Elizabeth Rigling, LeRoy Pine River: She had been in the 21’s all three years during her HS career, but other than one race at Roscommon, her senior year wasn’t trending that way. Well, until last week. And then this week. 21:02 yesterday, the best time of her entire career.

Matthew Bannick, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary: Lutheran Seminary as a whole ran incredible, each kid greatly outperforming expectation. Matthew especially so, breaking 20:00 for the first time in his first year of cross country.

Avery Westall, Breckenridge: As a freshman last year, Avery was primarily a low-22 girl and also had a breakout race of 20:44. For the first 1.5 months of the year, she hadn’t reached that form. As October rolled on, she began to find that stride, beginning with a 21:54 at Portage and culminating with a 4^th place finish yesterday.

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
11	Nolan Nixon	16:09.4	Cadillac	195.2
11	Gregory Janesak	16:19.5	Sparta	191.8
12	Andre Richmond	16:26.8	Whitehall	189.4
12	Carter McIlroy	16:27.2	Whitehall	189.3
11	Sean Pettis	16:30.3	Fremont	188.2
12	Owen Westerkamp	16:40.3	Big Rapids	184.9
11	Shane Izzard	16:52.2	Petoskey	180.9
10	Carter Sherman	16:55.6	Fremont	179.8
9	Owen Metzger	16:58.0	Sparta	179.0
12	Ramon Hernandez	16:58.4	Howard City-Tri-County	178.9
10	Peyton Ruel	16:59.4	Muskegon Oakridge	178.6
12	Ben Knuth	17:01.8	Big Rapids	177.7
11	John Christensen	17:03.0	Fremont	177.3
11	Gabe Outman	17:06.0	Cadillac	176.3
11	Jose Flores	17:06.5	Ludington	176.2
11	Brodie Delamater	17:16.3	Grant	172.9
11	Tommy Farley	17:17.5	Petoskey	172.5
11	Jack Lindwall	17:18.6	Petoskey	172.1
12	Noah Momber	17:19.9	Sparta	171.7
11	Trey Keson	17:22.5	Ludington	170.8
10	Stewart Waters	17:26.7	Whitehall	169.4
11	Dylan Odenbach	17:33.4	Petoskey	167.2
10	Parker Fettig	17:35.3	Petoskey	166.6
12	Gavin Towner	17:39.2	Petoskey	165.3
9	Carson Wood	17:39.9	Sparta	165.0
9	Chase Lowery	17:44.7	Fremont	163.4
12	Adam Ogg	17:46.4	Sparta	162.9
9	Simon Licata	17:47.9	Petoskey	162.4
11	JJ Mahan	17:49.9	Cadillac	161.7
12	Logan Ames	17:53.0	Gaylord	160.7
9	Issac Romero	17:54.1	Fremont	160.3
10	Kyan Deam	17:54.6	Big Rapids	160.1
11	Gavin Rykse	17:59.0	Howard City-Tri-County	158.7
10	David Reisterer	18:10.6	Ludington	154.8
10	Andrew Boeringa	18:11.2	Whitehall	154.6
12	Kaden Kolarik	18:14.0	Kingsley	153.7
10	Hayden Gould	18:15.3	Big Rapids	153.2
10	Austin Dalman	18:19.5	Big Rapids	151.8
11	Nevin Slater	18:26.1	Ludington	149.6
10	Jaxon Lumbert	18:27.2	Howard City-Tri-County	149.3
9	Hunter Parsons	18:27.7	Whitehall	149.1
11	Matthew Stilson	18:29.8	Cadillac	148.4
10	Cole Lowery	18:34.8	Fremont	146.7
11	Branden Stock	18:37.5	Kingsley	145.8
12	Avery Jura	18:39.8	Whitehall	145.1
9	Griffin Mis	18:40.7	Sparta	144.8
10	Isaac Meyers	18:44.8	Sparta	143.4
9	Alex Culver	18:49.9	Howard City-Tri-County	141.7
12	Henrik Quist	18:52.2	Fremont	140.9
12	Winston Pelloski	18:54.7	Kingsley	140.1
9	Henry Kauffman	18:58.0	Howard City-Tri-County	139.0
11	Freddie Santangelo	18:58.3	Cadillac	138.9
10	Landon Moore	18:58.6	Howard City-Tri-County	138.8
12	Matthew Cross	19:11.5	Kingsley	136.2
9	Brayden VanOs	19:18.7	Big Rapids	133.8
11	Braxton Zenner	19:19.4	Kingsley	133.5
10	Matt Spedoske	19:24.7	Big Rapids	131.8
11	Mathew Miedema	19:25.7	Newaygo	131.4
12	David Utzinger	19:28.1	Muskegon Oakridge	130.6
11	Jack Jubar	19:29.4	Ludington	130.2
9	Jacob Lewis	19:36.8	Whitehall	127.7
10	Sam Tolkinen	19:42.9	Cadillac	125.7
11	Garrison Klinge	19:43.9	Muskegon Oakridge	125.4
9	Isaiah Boerema	19:50.8	Ludington	123.1
9	Carter Slezak	19:58.3	Gaylord	120.6
9	Caleb Bays	20:03.1	Newaygo	119.0
9	Carson Kiefer	20:18.4	Cheboygan	113.9
11	Curtis Fuller	20:19.7	Ludington	113.4
9	Andrew Kiefer	20:32.3	Cheboygan	109.3
10	Peyton Thomasma	20:39.8	Gaylord	106.7
11	Blake Armstrong	20:47.4	Muskegon Oakridge	104.2
9	Logan Kilbreath	20:49.6	Grant	103.5
12	Jason Peterson	20:51.1	Gaylord	103.0
12	Zach Keiser	20:51.8	Gaylord	102.7
12	Andrei Derental	20:53.8	Gaylord	102.1
10	Logan Face	21:01.9	Kingsley	99.4
11	Trace Laskey	21:08.1	Howard City-Tri-County	97.3
9	Christopher Peterson	21:12.0	Gaylord	96.0
11	Jadon Ryman	21:14.1	Newaygo	95.3
11	Anthony Castillo	21:30.5	Grant	89.8
9	Alex Hudson	21:33.7	Cheboygan	88.8
12	Bryce Grugett	21:38.1	Newaygo	87.3
12	Leon Ventura Neumann	21:42.1	Newaygo	86.0
9	Braxton Esper	21:44.1	Cheboygan	85.3
10	Andrew Elmore	21:46.9	Cadillac	84.4
9	Levi Sterk	21:57.2	Kingsley	80.9
11	Luke Acton	22:32.1	Newaygo	69.3
9	Zachary Spaulding	24:34.5	Newaygo	28.5
12	Hunter Jones	15:12.3	Benzie Central	214.2
12	Clayton Ackley	16:17.2	Hart	192.6
12	Jake O’Neil	16:24.9	Remus Chippewa Hills	190.0
12	Wyatt Dean	16:25.5	Hart	189.9
10	Pol Molins	16:36.1	Benzie Central	186.3
10	August Rohde	16:39.5	Reed City	185.2
12	Seth Ackley	16:57.7	Hart	179.1
11	Ryan Allen	17:14.9	Reed City	173.4
12	Logan Patrick	17:19.3	Manton	171.9
10	Max Stitt	17:23.2	Hart	170.6
11	Paxton Hall	17:26.5	Lake City	169.5
12	Caleb Bitely	17:27.9	Hart	169.0
12	Enzo Gagliardi Ramalho	17:30.6	Lake City	168.1
12	Ty Kailing	17:31.8	Reed City	167.7
11	Jack O’Donnell	17:33.9	Manistee	167.0
11	Tyler Vining	17:34.4	Morley-Stanwood	166.9
12	Dade Allen	17:35.9	Benzie Central	166.4
10	Coleson Cruzan	17:37.9	White Cloud	165.7
11	Claydon Ingleright	17:40.9	McBain	164.7
12	Nathan Ciolk	17:47.7	White Cloud	162.4
11	Anthony Kiaunis	17:53.7	Reed City	160.4
11	Matthew Brownell	17:55.2	Remus Chippewa Hills	159.9
12	Josef Bromley	18:06.2	Hart	156.3
12	Gavin Shirey	18:06.9	Mason County Central	156.0
12	Shelby Hopkins	18:08.4	Morley-Stanwood	155.5
9	Aaron Allen	18:09.7	Reed City	155.1
11	Luke Senters	18:14.5	Manistee	153.5
9	Robert Dykhouse	18:16.7	Manton	152.8
12	Easton Vander Zwaag	18:19.1	Hart	152.0
11	Carson Foondle	18:21.0	White Cloud	151.3
9	Caiden Helsel	18:29.3	Lake City	148.6
12	Dorian Olson	18:31.7	Benzie Central	147.8
9	Iziquiel Picon	18:40.3	Shelby	146.6
11	Tanner Soelberg	18:39.8	Shelby	145.1
11	Gavin Kelso	18:40.9	LeRoy Pine River	144.7
11	Stephen Priese	18:44.5	Hesperia	143.5
10	Kaleb Canning	18:50.8	White Cloud	141.4
12	Cullen Kraus-McCarty	18:55.2	Mason County Central	139.9
9	Jackson Schaub	18:58.4	Benzie Central	138.9
12	Christian Ringler	19:00.5	White Cloud	138.2
9	Ethin Chandler	19:09.4	Benzie Central	136.9
9	Paul Saladin	19:10.2	Reed City	136.6
11	Micah Frye	19:15.2	Shelby	134.9
10	Avery Bowman	19:15.8	White Cloud	134.7
11	Hudson Kiteley	19:16.4	Benzie Central	134.5
10	Jacob Simon	19:20.1	Remus Chippewa Hills	133.3
10	Donald Grovesteen	19:24.7	White Cloud	131.8
9	Zack Temple	19:26.0	Hesperia	131.3
12	Mason Dozier	19:28.9	Reed City	130.4
10	Andrew Sherburn	19:34.7	Hesperia	128.4
9	Kaden Worch	19:37.3	Manistee	127.6
11	Nathan Koetje	19:43.9	McBain	125.4
9	Lance Smith	20:02.5	Hesperia	119.2
12	Ethan Edmondson	20:09.2	Manistee	116.9
12	Peter Maddox	20:10.0	Lake City	116.7
12	Benjamin Ceplina	20:14.3	Manistee	115.2
10	Dallas Chamberlain	20:16.8	McBain	114.4
12	Elliot Hoeflinger	20:18.0	Manistee	114.0
11	Kaden Abrahamson	20:19.5	McBain	113.5
9	Garrin Schneeg	20:19.9	McBain	113.4
11	Kyler Behrenwald	20:31.4	Lakeview	109.5
10	Ethan Fessenden	20:32.2	Shelby	109.3
9	Jack Helsel	20:53.4	Manton	102.2
11	Trey Johnson	21:16.0	Mason County Central	94.7
12	Tug Thuemmel	21:18.2	Manistee	93.9
10	Gaven Cornell	21:28.7	Morley-Stanwood	90.4
11	Jonathon Carballido	21:32.4	Shelby	89.2
9	Owen Butkovich	21:36.2	Lake City	87.9
9	Raiden Sternquist	21:44.2	Remus Chippewa Hills	85.3
10	Sawyer Fink	22:30.6	Evart	69.8
10	Hunter Hoover	22:37.0	Remus Chippewa Hills	67.7
11	Asher Johnson	22:42.0	Mason County Central	66.0
9	Jaiden Carsten	23:04.9	Manton	58.4
10	Brayden Figgins-Newton	23:28.2	Mason County Central	50.6
10	Kyle Bouck	23:41.3	Remus Chippewa Hills	46.2
10	Kayden Kangas	24:12.7	Morley-Stanwood	35.8
9	Matice Nichols	24:36.9	Hesperia	27.7
11	Jordan Rosekrans	24:45.5	Lake City	24.8
12	Sam Johnson	24:54.2	Mason County Central	21.9
9	Kolt Milner	24:57.0	Hesperia	21.0
11	Anthony Balsitis	24:58.1	Morley-Stanwood	20.6
11	Levi Sluiter	25:45.9	McBain	4.7
12	Dakota Dykhuis	16:30.3	Montabella	188.2
11	Owen Patton	16:43.4	Vestaburg	183.9
12	Owen Gross	17:31.4	Beal City	167.9
11	Sawyer Stoneman	17:36.1	Breckenridge	166.3
11	Alex Wanty	17:54.9	Hale	161.7
11	Isaac Humm	17:59.5	Breckenridge	158.5
11	Carter Follett	18:05.5	Merrill	156.5
10	Rodney Iamurri	18:18.3	Saginaw Nouvel	152.3
11	Jeffery Harden	18:25.3	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	149.9
10	Sean O’Grady	18:34.4	Saginaw Nouvel	146.9
10	Camden Fager	18:41.7	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	144.4
11	Jaden Ostrander	18:42.0	Breckenridge	144.3
9	Sean Bernard	18:55.5	Hale	139.8
12	Silas Schultz	19:16.0	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	134.7
12	Jesse Jones	19:18.2	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	133.9
9	Jordan Weber	19:26.6	Beal City	131.1
12	Ethan Sharrow	19:43.6	Charlton Heston Academy	125.5
10	Logan Dudley	19:45.1	Coleman	125.0
12	Caleb Munson	19:47.9	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	124.0
10	Matthew Bannick	19:59.5	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	120.2
12	Colin DeKam	20:08.1	McBain Northern Michigan Christian	117.3
11	Elijah Kimbel	20:12.8	McBain Northern Michigan Christian	115.7
9	Aiden Sprague	20:23.8	Beal City	112.1
10	Aimon Humm	20:27.6	Breckenridge	110.8
10	Austin Gross	20:30.0	Beal City	110.0
12	Cole Aultman	20:40.5	Coleman	106.5
9	Summer Yuan	20:48.1	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	104.0
11	Keegan Shafer	20:59.3	Vestaburg	100.2
9	Dylan Cichowski	21:02.0	Charlton Heston Academy	99.3
12	Thomas Kolleth	21:03.6	Saginaw Nouvel	98.8
12	Caleb Needham	21:07.7	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	97.4
9	Paxton Downing	21:13.0	Hale	95.7
12	Richard Duynslager	21:24.7	Beal City	91.8
12	Chris Tallman	21:25.3	Coleman	91.6
11	Preston Foster	21:33.9	Breckenridge	88.7
10	Matthew Firman	21:39.2	Farwell	86.9
9	Isaiah Greenacre	21:48.9	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	83.7
10	Maddax McCaw	21:49.7	Breckenridge	83.4
8	VanNoord Dries	21:57.9	McBain Northern Michigan Christian	80.7
9	Conner Fenton	22:27.6	Beal City	70.8
10	Eli Zeien	22:33.8	Beal City	68.8
9	Jaden Kiger	22:34.6	Marion	68.5
10	Shane Scheaffer	23:05.5	Farwell	58.2
11	Lawrence Mullins	23:11.2	Hale	56.3
9	Kingsley Gu	23:14.7	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	55.1
12	Ty Murray	23:24.1	Coleman	52.0
9	Jair Martinez	23:28.1	Coleman	50.6
12	Jacob Booher	23:30.1	McBain Northern Michigan Christian	50.0
12	Aidan Timko	23:31.5	Marion	49.5
11	Tim Stocker	23:31.8	Charlton Heston Academy	49.4
12	Trey Davis	23:37.3	Marion	47.6
12	Payton Sheldon	23:43.7	Montabella	45.4
9	Casper Witherspoon	23:55.1	Big Rapids Crossroads Academy	41.6
9	Owen Middleton	24:16.4	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	34.5
11	Michael Harris	24:27.2	Charlton Heston Academy	30.9
10	Dylan Sharrow	24:27.7	Charlton Heston Academy	30.8
10	Kyle Cooter	24:41.9	Big Rapids Crossroads Academy	26.1
11	Ryan Hackney	25:12.5	Charlton Heston Academy	15.8
9	Chris Han	25:22.2	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	12.6
11	Sergey Collings	25:41.5	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	6.2

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
12	Emma Janesak	18:48.9	Sparta	142.0
11	CamBrie Corey	19:10.7	Petoskey	134.8
9	Katie Berkshire	19:15.9	Gaylord	133.0
10	Madeline Loe	19:23.4	Petoskey	130.5
9	Brooklynn Brown	19:24.5	Cadillac	130.2
12	Ariana Treat	19:24.9	Whitehall	130.0
10	Summer Brower	19:29.2	Ludington	128.6
11	Nora O’Leary	19:32.3	Petoskey	127.6
9	Linnea Paige	19:33.0	Fremont	127.3
11	Remington Arney	19:50.6	Newaygo	121.5
9	Christina Theis	19:53.6	Ludington	120.5
10	Nadia Grierson	19:57.6	Ludington	119.1
12	Regan Hill	20:00.5	Cadillac	118.2
12	Madyson Oudbier	20:05.2	Sparta	116.6
12	Eleanor Cool	20:41.4	Cadillac	104.5
10	Skylee Ames	20:47.6	Gaylord	102.5
9	Lily Sargent	20:51.1	Gaylord	101.3
11	Kennedi Wood	21:01.4	Sparta	97.9
10	Adalyn Britton	21:03.0	Whitehall	97.3
10	Autumn Brower	21:04.8	Ludington	96.7
10	Fiona Scott	21:15.4	Petoskey	93.2
9	Anna Pake	21:19.1	Howard City-Tri-County	92.0
11	Avery Mickelson	21:19.9	Cadillac	91.7
11	Olivia Andersen	21:30.5	Ludington	88.2
12	Annie Kline	21:36.4	Ludington	86.2
11	Mackenzie Keillor	21:38.4	Ludington	85.5
11	Lucy Johnson	21:39.6	Gaylord	85.1
11	Raegan Ruel	21:41.2	Muskegon Oakridge	84.6
11	Marisa Mazza	21:44.4	Cadillac	83.5
11	Oliviah Malloy	21:44.9	Big Rapids	83.4
10	Corina Mitteer	21:51.1	Whitehall	81.3
10	Ella Spanding	21:51.7	Gaylord	81.1
9	Ariana Tanner	21:53.8	Fremont	80.4
11	Lauren Cole	21:54.3	Petoskey	80.2
11	Gwendalynn Rickard	21:54.8	Big Rapids	80.1
12	Allison Tate	21:57.0	Whitehall	79.3
12	Lily Hardenburgh	22:02.3	Sparta	77.6
9	Joelle Patten	22:03.1	Fremont	77.3
12	Kelly Huis	22:08.3	Kingsley	75.6
10	Zoey Walerczyk	22:13.2	Newaygo	73.9
12	Grace Hillier	22:13.5	Kingsley	73.8
10	Sayla Bender	22:13.9	Kingsley	73.7
10	Samantha Harke	22:18.8	Cheboygan	72.1
12	Madison Parmley	22:24.8	Whitehall	70.1
12	Hannah Grahn	22:26.5	Kingsley	69.5
10	Mackenzie Baldrica	22:27.9	Sparta	69.0
9	Aubriana Druckenmiller	22:29.0	Sparta	68.7
10	Amelia Smith	22:29.5	Gaylord	68.5
11	Jade Ryerson	22:31.2	Sparta	67.9
12	Elizabeth Chaffee	22:52.5	Newaygo	60.8
9	Cate (Catherine) Brown	22:55.0	Cadillac	60.0
10	Mara VanWagner	22:56.7	Kingsley	59.4
10	Summer Adams	22:57.7	Big Rapids	59.1
11	Natalie Schulz	23:00.0	Howard City-Tri-County	58.3
10	Keira VanTimmeren	23:02.0	Howard City-Tri-County	57.7
12	Kaylee Schelich	23:02.5	Kingsley	57.5
9	Madeline Pacola	23:07.4	Petoskey	55.9
11	Sydney Hoffman	23:09.9	Petoskey	55.0
11	Cara Morse	23:14.7	Muskegon Oakridge	53.4
11	Hanah Johnson	23:15.7	Cadillac	53.1
10	Rachel Maddox	23:19.9	Fremont	51.7
10	Thalia Pineda	23:21.6	Newaygo	51.1
11	Aamori Paz	23:42.6	Newaygo	44.1
10	Olivia Beauchamp	23:44.0	Big Rapids	43.7
12	Brianna Bender	23:48.1	Kingsley	42.3
11	Elise Pfeiffer	24:00.6	Fremont	38.1
12	Kya Mahoney	24:09.2	Whitehall	35.3
11	Sami Keiser	24:18.9	Gaylord	32.0
11	Milla Hanks	24:30.0	Muskegon Oakridge	28.3
10	Addyson Moeggenberg	24:36.5	Howard City-Tri-County	26.2
9	Addison Ptasnik	24:53.9	Cheboygan	20.4
12	Kris Brandenburg	24:54.5	Whitehall	20.2
9	Rocquel Richards	24:59.9	Fremont	18.4
12	Connelly Hefferan Nordlund	25:03.3	Newaygo	17.3
11	Avary Losee	25:07.2	Grant	15.9
12	Rebecca Grandy	25:07.6	Newaygo	15.8
10	Isabella Caserta	25:38.2	Big Rapids	5.6
10	Bethany Buitenwerf	25:48.5	Howard City-Tri-County	2.2
10	Jessica Jazwinski	17:39.3	Hart	165.2
11	Alyson Enns	18:27.4	Hart	149.2
11	Mylie Kelly	18:55.9	Benzie Central	139.7
11	Miranda McNeil	19:24.8	Morley-Stanwood	130.1
11	Cecilia Postma	20:01.4	Manistee	117.9
12	Emma Soelberg	20:18.9	Shelby	112.0
11	Ava Hollandsworth	20:24.1	Remus Chippewa Hills	110.3
12	Bianca Delogu	20:37.1	Benzie Central	106.0
10	Nora Grossnickle	20:39.4	Benzie Central	105.2
12	Nora Smoes	20:40.9	Reed City	104.7
9	Quinn Hatfield	20:47.8	Remus Chippewa Hills	102.4
10	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	20:49.9	Hart	101.7
12	Savanna Owens	20:50.3	Hart	101.6
12	Abigail Pretty	20:50.6	Hart	101.5
12	Chloe Colton	20:52.5	Manton	100.8
12	Elizabeth Rigling	21:02.5	LeRoy Pine River	97.5
12	Hadley Saylor	21:03.6	Manton	97.1
10	Lauren Pretty	21:18.2	Hart	92.3
9	Kenai Kokx	21:21.0	Hart	91.3
10	Clara Smoes	21:27.5	Reed City	89.2
10	Ava Iverson	21:28.3	Benzie Central	88.9
9	Georgia Haag	21:32.5	Manistee	87.5
10	Chelsi Eisenga	21:35.5	McBain	86.5
11	Cambrie Lawrence	22:08.3	Benzie Central	75.6
10	Shauna McLean	22:25.0	McBain	70.0
12	Amanda Hill	22:29.0	LeRoy Pine River	68.7
11	Haylee Livermore	22:29.5	Remus Chippewa Hills	68.5
12	Claire Johnston	22:33.5	Morley-Stanwood	67.2
9	Adison Thorne	22:35.4	Mason County Central	66.5
10	Augusta Bowman	22:36.5	Remus Chippewa Hills	66.2
12	Rylee Cohoon	22:45.3	Lake City	63.2
10	Megan Gottschall	22:47.1	Lake City	62.6
9	Tessa Buday	22:49.6	Benzie Central	61.8
10	Carly Carlson	22:52.0	Reed City	61.0
11	Brookelynn Webster	22:54.4	Remus Chippewa Hills	60.2
9	Caelynn London	22:55.2	Reed City	59.9
11	Rowan Ensing	22:56.0	McBain	59.7
12	Claire Scott	22:57.5	Manistee	59.2
9	Magdalena Herberger	22:58.7	Manistee	58.8
11	Andrea Feldpausch	23:01.0	White Cloud	58.0
9	Alayna Edmondson	23:14.4	Manistee	53.5
11	Catalina Stong	23:15.5	Shelby	53.2
9	Sophia Bouck	23:17.6	Remus Chippewa Hills	52.5
11	Madison Morris	23:25.3	Manton	49.9
10	Kennedi Wahmhoff	23:25.6	Manton	49.8
9	Briella Walenjus	23:27.9	McBain	49.0
9	Mikayla Blood	23:40.9	McBain	44.7
12	Kiara Edwards	23:57.4	White Cloud	39.2
10	Kate Somsel	23:59.7	Manistee	38.4
9	Makayla Watkins	24:00.4	Reed City	38.2
9	Leah Storey	24:00.7	Remus Chippewa Hills	38.1
11	Lily Fults	24:01.2	Lake City	37.9
12	Jolena Deaton	24:04.3	White Cloud	36.9
10	Brooklyn Foondle	24:07.3	White Cloud	35.9
12	Abbie Robinson	24:09.5	Manistee	35.2
9	Grace Supanich	24:16.1	Morley-Stanwood	33.0
9	Amaya Roper	24:16.8	Benzie Central	32.7
12	Alyssa Baker	24:21.5	Manton	31.2
10	Tessa Ward	24:23.2	Manton	30.6
10	Annabeth Allee	24:23.9	LeRoy Pine River	30.4
9	Olivia Bosscher	24:30.5	McBain	28.2
9	Sahara Davis	24:43.2	Reed City	23.9
11	Jayden Baker	24:48.0	Mason County Central	22.3
10	Mallory Miller	24:51.1	Mason County Central	21.3
10	Madelynne Sterly	24:52.6	LeRoy Pine River	20.8
12	Aubrey Klotz	24:56.1	Shelby	19.6
12	Grace Richards	24:57.3	White Cloud	19.2
9	McKenzie Houtman	25:06.7	Morley-Stanwood	16.1
10	Rheanna Gilzene	25:07.6	Manton	15.8
12	Anna Ponce	25:16.2	Lake City	12.9
9	Emma Roe	25:26.0	Lake City	9.7
10	Molly Willison	25:30.1	Lakeview	8.3
10	Genesis Wilson	25:37.1	McBain	6.0
10	Nyvaeh Wendt	25:38.2	Mason County Central	5.6
12	Kaylee Locke	20:44.0	Beal City	103.7
10	Isabelle Eppert	20:58.0	Farwell	99.0
9	Ally Schmitz	21:28.1	Breckenridge	89.0
10	Avery Westall	21:43.1	Breckenridge	84.0
11	Jacqueline Morton	21:45.1	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	83.3
9	Kaya Rose	21:56.7	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	79.4
10	Abigail Davis	22:01.2	Vestaburg	77.9
9	Shelby Wisnowski	22:15.5	Charlton Heston Academy	73.2
12	Remi Sponseller	22:20.3	Farwell	71.6
12	Raini Sponseller	22:21.2	Farwell	71.3
10	Danica Aldrich	22:25.2	Breckenridge	70.0
11	Tori Most	22:29.0	Breckenridge	68.7
12	Hadyn Armstrong	22:33.7	Beal City	67.1
10	Lilly Leppert	22:38.4	Beal City	65.5
12	Autumn Wakefield	22:44.1	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	63.6
10	Julia Silva	22:52.5	Farwell	60.8
12	Lily Deja	22:54.7	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	60.1
10	Jessica Penrod	23:04.6	Vestaburg	56.8
10	Lauryn Licari	23:13.8	Beal City	53.7
10	Sydney Leslie	23:25.0	Saginaw Nouvel	50.0
9	Laura Bigard	23:30.9	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	48.0
10	Areyel Weiss	23:41.1	Breckenridge	44.6
10	Nataly Vine	23:45.5	Breckenridge	43.2
11	Sarah Kober	23:51.6	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	41.1
10	Addyson Thormeier	23:59.2	Farwell	38.6
11	Amelia Rivera	24:09.3	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	35.2
11	Jackie Cole	24:19.6	Big Rapids Crossroads Academy	31.8
10	Nevaeh Post	24:26.6	Merrill	29.5
10	Brianna Locke	24:32.4	Beal City	27.6
9	Evalynne Bell	24:33.3	Farwell	27.2
11	JoAnna Harden	24:46.6	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	22.8
11	Molly Siler	24:52.8	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	20.7
12	Erin Stevens	24:57.7	Merrill	19.1
12	Selena Quintero	25:00.0	Marion	18.3
12	Rachel McCaughna	25:05.0	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	16.7
12	Madeline Miller	25:08.1	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	15.6
12	Lilly Backus	25:08.9	Beal City	15.4
10	Bella Davis	25:13.5	Beal City	13.8
11	Kayla Wolanin	25:21.2	Hale	11.3
10	Mickiah Allbee	25:25.5	Vestaburg	9.8
9	Wynn Park	25:33.0	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	7.3
10	Ivy Frisch	25:34.0	Farwell	7.0
11	Kaitlin Buys	25:39.4	Big Rapids Crossroads Academy	5.2
9	Elizabeth Wolanin	25:43.7	Hale	3.8

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	The Potter’s House	16	95+	95+
2	Three Oaks River Valley	51		95+
3	Muskegon Catholic Central	104		73
4	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	110		27

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lezawe Osterink	The Potter’s House	1.00
2	12	Logan Swiney	The Potter’s House	2.38
3	11	Jackson Rodriguez	The Potter’s House	2.62
4	11	Noah Finton	The Potter’s House	4.43
5	11	Ezra Hagedorn	The Potter’s House	6.01
6	10	Tyler Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	6.40
7	9	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	6.86
8	9	Charlie Gibson	Three Oaks River Valley	8.28
9	10	Adam Slavens	Three Oaks River Valley	8.59
10	9	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House	10.83
11	11	Owen McLoughlin	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	12.12
12	11	Austin York	Three Oaks River Valley	13.50
13	11	Jacob Lyonnais	Muskegon Catholic Central	13.94
14	12	Gavin Hancox	Gobles	14.51
15	10	Ryan Blankenship	Eau Claire	14.83
16	11	Owen Lyonnais	Muskegon Catholic Central	15.26
17	11	Matthew Lage	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	17.94
18	11	Elliot Bourne	New Buffalo	18.85
19	10	Caleb Oudbier	Tri-Unity Christian	19.14
20	11	Owen Slavens	Three Oaks River Valley	22.90
21	11	Braiden Brooks	Three Oaks River Valley	23.41
22	11	Jack Walkenhorst	Muskegon Catholic Central	23.58
23	9	Haylen Buell	Martin	23.61
24	10	Sean Driscoll	Three Oaks River Valley	24.03
25	9	Isaac Struck-VanderHaak	The Potter’s House	24.27
26	12	Edward Lopez	Eau Claire	26.12
27	12	Joshua Schmitz	Libertas Christian	28.40
28	10	Zach Vonk	Holland Calvary Christian	29.04
29	10	Kalen Loebach	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	29.19
30	12	Evan Spriggs	New Buffalo	29.34

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	54	37	95+
2	Libertas Christian	54	30	95+
3	The Potter’s House	55	33	95+
4	Holland Calvary Christian	72		6

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Allison Glendening	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	1.57
2	10	Hannah Geaney	The Potter’s House	2.11
3	9	Sadie Schout	Libertas Christian	3.19
4	11	Ivy Andreas	The Potter’s House	3.55
5	12	Aliz Pusztai	Libertas Christian	5.52
6	10	Brielle Voorhees	Tri-Unity Christian	6.78
7	9	Madison Cooley	Gobles	8.03
8	9	Acacia Williams	Holland Calvary Christian	8.04
9	11	Abby Kunkle	Libertas Christian	9.21
10	12	Cally Camara	Muskegon Catholic Central	10.00
11	10	Mary Riley	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	10.81
12	12	Kassidy Kleinheksel	Muskegon Catholic Central	13.58
13	12	Vanessa Peltoniemi	Holton	13.70
14	10	Hannah Hysell	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	14.54
15	9	Alison Rotman	Holland Calvary Christian	15.83
16	12	Riley Sinkler	Lawrence	16.04
17	10	Aubrey Goyings	Holton	18.12
18	9	Ana VanZanten	Holland Calvary Christian	18.61
19	12	Emily Folkert	Libertas Christian	19.41
20	12	Madeline Madsen	Lawrence	19.60
21	9	Marisa Toonstra	The Potter’s House	22.23
22	11	Abby Schrauben	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	24.49
23	11	Lydia VerBeek	The Potter’s House	24.83
24	9	Aribel Mills	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	25.90
25	10	Olivia Laninga	Holland Calvary Christian	26.16
26	11	Isabelle Schrauben	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	27.19
27	12	Cristina Avello	St. Joseph Our Lady of the Lake Catholic	27.33
28	11	Sydney Amondson	The Potter’s House	28.67
29	9	Kylie Bobo	The Potter’s House	28.73
30	10	Zoie Wood	Gobles	28.74

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Saranac	63	95+	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	103		94
3	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	113		83
4	North Muskegon	130		23

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Samuel Martini	Kent City	1.07
2	12	Nathan Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian	2.04
3	9	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.07
4	11	Nathan Day	Saranac	4.76
5	11	Graham Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	6.78
6	10	Levi Kamps	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	7.07
7	12	Elijah Powell	Saranac	7.44
8	12	Owen Fairchild	Montague	7.47
9	12	Andrew Hardy	Stanton Central Montcalm	8.04
10	10	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	13.26
11	12	Jude Meldrum-Roy	North Muskegon	14.01
12	11	Jaren Vogel	Kent City	14.13
13	12	Jude Meldrum-Roy	North Muskegon	16.33
14	12	Evan Johnson	Saranac	17.03
15	10	Matthias Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	17.69
16	12	Ben Sluiter	Saranac	18.58
17	9	Luke Tibbe	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	18.64
18	11	Hunter Helminski	Saranac	19.63
19	11	Matthew Anton	Ravenna	20.40
20	12	Roger Hernandez	Holland Black River	20.61
21	12	Jonathan Clausing	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	20.62
22	11	Graeson Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	20.75
23	10	Evan Oosterhouse	Saranac	22.29
24	10	Luke Dykstra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	22.86
25	11	Nick Lubbers	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.00
26	11	Trevor Dornbos	Grandville Calvin Christian	23.62
27	12	Mason Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.97
28	11	Evan Atkinson-Miller	North Muskegon	26.96
29	11	Clay Johnson	Montague	30.51
30	10	Charles Brooks	Grand Rapids West Catholic	31.26

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	71	89	95+
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	85	10	95+
3	Kent City	91		95+
4	Grand Rapids West Catholic	115		6

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Lila Volkers	Kent City	1.09
2	10	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	2.37
3	12	Madeleine Hill	Saranac	3.05
4	10	Grace VanderKooi	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	3.83
5	11	Amber Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	4.94
6	9	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	5.79
7	10	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	7.10
8	12	Jonathah Bouwman	Grandville Calvin Christian	9.24
9	10	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	9.74
10	11	Lily LeSarge	Grand Rapids West Catholic	10.53
11	11	Grace Folkema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	11.58
12	12	Lainey Roth	Grand Rapids West Catholic	12.48
13	12	Carolyn Bennett	North Muskegon	13.09
14	11	Gracie Houtman	Kent City	13.10
15	11	Cammie Erickson	Montague	15.24
16	11	Isabella Max	Kent City	16.42
17	9	Alia Zuidema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	18.17
18	12	Lily LaBurn	Holland Black River	18.38
19	12	Brianna Zuidema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	19.57
20	12	Anna Tubbergen	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	19.92
21	11	Eleanor Kingshott	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	21.09
22	10	Alyssa Possehn	Saranac	23.46
23	11	Lindsay Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.55
24	12	Nathalie Strockis	Grand Rapids West Catholic	24.87
25	9	Dylan Bosma	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	26.94
26	11	Lauren Jousma	Grandville Calvin Christian	27.46
27	9	Amber Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	29.32
28	10	Morgan Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	30.43
29	12	Joelle White	Delton-Kellogg	30.59
30	9	Lydia Howard	Kent City	30.63

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Rapids Christian	38	95+	95+
2	Allendale	97		95+
3	Holland Christian	109		75
4	Hamilton	123		19
5	Spring Lake	129		8

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Simon Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	1.11
2	11	Noah Lambers	Holland	3.10
3	12	Max VanHuis	Hamilton	3.82
4	10	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	4.22
5	12	Adrian Castillo	Holland	7.27
6	11	Joe Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	8.49
7	12	Gavin Wiersma	Zeeland East	9.01
8	12	Reuben Wiering	Grand Rapids Christian	9.57
9	11	Dylan Clark	Grand Rapids Christian	11.20
10	10	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	11.28
11	10	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	13.23
12	10	Keegan Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	13.41
13	10	Jeb Hillary	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	13.49
14	11	Ian Richthammer	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	13.97
15	9	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	14.18
16	11	Peter Kuperus	Grand Rapids Christian	14.19
17	10	Aidan Brinks	Holland Christian	15.00
18	12	Ethan Grevengoed	Spring Lake	16.77
19	9	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	17.22
20	10	Kilian Whalen	Allendale	18.09
21	11	Lucas Ruffing	Spring Lake	21.73
22	10	Vincent Pollock	Fruitport	22.47
23	10	Parker Woodwyk	Spring Lake	24.17
24	12	Nick Riemersma	Zeeland East	25.53
25	10	Aiden Kasprzak	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	26.08
26	12	Nate Oosterhouse	Hudsonville Unity Christian	27.06
27	11	Josh Langeland	Hamilton	28.29
28	10	Brayden Rynsburger	Holland Christian	29.13
29	10	Nathan Steen	Holland Christian	30.38
30	11	Levi Glynn	Fruitport	30.62

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Rapids Christian	31	95+	95+
2	Spring Lake	64		95+
3	Zeeland East	71		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Natalie VanOtteren	Grand Rapids Christian	1.12
2	11	Allison Kuzma	Zeeland East	1.88
3	9	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	4.39
4	11	Naomi Nelson	Grand Rapids Christian	4.72
5	12	Lily Parker	Spring Lake	5.09
6	9	Marie Gates	Hudsonville Unity Christian	6.24
7	11	Emily Tomes	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	7.63
8	11	Payton Holtz	Grand Rapids Christian	7.96
9	12	Alisa Mason	Holland	8.32
10	10	Lexie Ruffing	Spring Lake	8.78
11	9	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	11.31
12	11	Bea Reeser	Spring Lake	14.40
13	9	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	15.23
14	10	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	15.44
15	12	Ava Buhlman	Allendale	16.76
16	12	Sarah Timmer	Grand Rapids Christian	18.01
17	10	Maddie Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	18.17
18	9	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	18.73
19	12	Anna Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	19.88
20	11	Addie Grill	Zeeland East	21.25
21	10	Valerie Pollock	Fruitport	21.73
22	9	Meghan Guczwa	Spring Lake	21.80
23	9	Megan Kuzma	Zeeland East	24.57
24	12	Trina Farris	Hamilton	25.07
25	12	Hayley Heinrich	Zeeland East	25.55
26	9	Charlene Kuras	Zeeland East	26.77
27	12	Jessie Postma	Hudsonville Unity Christian	26.98
28	11	Katie Riemersma	Spring Lake	28.10
29	12	Alyssa Gerritsma	Holland Christian	28.67
30	10	Sophie Bukrey	Coopersville	29.42

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Grand Haven	63	88	95+
2	Zeeland West	76	7	95+
3	Jenison	88	5	85
4	Rockford	102		15

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Seth Norder	Grand Haven	1.17
2	12	Caleb Branch	Muskegon Mona Shores	2.58
3	12	Colin Graham	Rockford	3.55
4	12	Jaben Bakker	Hudsonville	4.11
5	12	Chase Holwerda	Zeeland West	6.73
6	12	Espen Wood	Cedar Springs	7.63
7	10	Seth Conner	Jenison	10.12
8	10	Mason Lucas	Jenison	10.41
9	10	Ben Held	Grand Haven	10.56
10	12	Caleb Smith	Zeeland West	11.14
11	12	Logan Vining	Grand Haven	11.50
12	11	Jaxon Allen	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	12.11
13	10	Carter Livermore	Grandville	12.57
14	12	Brendan Wangler	Jenison	13.80
15	12	Charles Lewis	Rockford	14.87
16	12	Nathan Golding	Zeeland West	14.97
17	10	Carson Berko	Grand Haven	16.01
18	11	Nate Fahey	Rockford	16.89
19	12	Austin O’brien	Grand Rapids Kenowa hills	19.05
20	9	Robert Dodd	Zeeland West	20.91
21	11	Jack DeKruyter	Zeeland West	22.09
22	9	Ethan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	24.00
23	9	Aron Gal	Grand Haven	24.71
24	12	Connor Wooley	Holland West Ottawa	25.88
25	9	Caleb TeBrake	Grand Rapids Northview	27.62
26	9	Keagan Smith	Zeeland West	28.26
27	10	Noah Schuette	Rockford	28.48
28	11	Roman Smith	Grand Haven	28.52
29	12	Will Marth	Jenison	29.08
30	11	Carson Hauch	Zeeland West	29.10

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Holland West Ottawa	36	95+	95+
2	Jenison	88		95+
3	Grand Haven	93		90
4	Rockford	114		12

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	1.19
2	12	Arianne Olson	Holland West Ottawa	1.84
3	12	Allison Arnsman	Grandville	2.97
4	12	Maya Guikema	Jenison	4.84
5	10	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	5.01
6	10	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	5.47
7	12	Megan Postma	Holland West Ottawa	7.69
8	9	Trinity VanderWoude	Rockford	8.10
9	12	Bella Hoffer	Zeeland West	11.44
10	9	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	11.89
11	10	Natalie Lewis	Rockford	12.06
12	12	Maggie Otto	Jenison	12.43
13	10	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	13.22
14	9	Ellery Horness	Muskegon Mona Shores	13.98
15	11	Madelyn Vande Bunte	Jenison	14.47
16	10	Addison Smith	Grand Haven	16.23
17	12	Larissa McGrath	Cedar Springs	17.14
18	9	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven	19.87
19	12	Robyn Hunt	Muskegon Mona Shores	21.35
20	12	Cecilia Conrad	Muskegon Mona Shores	22.87
21	9	Addie Birkholz	Holland West Ottawa	24.11
22	10	Emma Smith	Rockford	24.36
23	12	Elise Conkel	Hudsonville	24.92
24	10	Abi Albright	Grand Haven	26.62
25	10	Abbey Scholma	Hudsonville	27.23
26	11	Payton Hosley	Grand Haven	28.25
27	10	Naomi Diekman	Jenison	28.75
28	11	Annalise Elliott	Cedar Springs	29.57
29	10	Devin Fisher	Rockford	29.61
30	10	Emma Gunnett	Holland West Ottawa	31.20

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Saugatuck	82	93	95+
2	Buchanan	104	6	95+
3	Kalamazoo Christian	117		84
4	Bridgman	141		7
5	Bloomingdale	143		8

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	William Winter	Parchment	2.38
2	11	Jaden Barnes	Bloomingdale	2.56
3	12	Logan Weis	Centreville	2.98
4	11	Boden Genovese	Coloma	3.00
5	12	Ethan Glick	Constantine	5.20
6	12	John Sanderson	Bridgman	7.27
7	10	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	7.50
8	11	Russell Vande Poel	Saugatuck	9.96
9	12	Joe Stocchiero	Bloomingdale	11.01
10	12	Isaac Bogard	Kalamazoo Christian	11.35
11	12	Charlie Stormer	Saugatuck	11.49
12	12	Luke Gorgas	Saugatuck	12.30
13	10	Dante Pillot	Schoolcraft	14.22
14	9	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan	14.88
15	11	Britain Philip	Buchanan	16.41
16	9	Jacob Kuntz	Buchanan	17.76
17	12	Kam Rinker	Kalamazoo Christian	18.89
18	12	Nick Mitchell	Kalamazoo Christian	19.81
19	9	Liam McBeth	Buchanan	20.94
20	9	Chayse Ciborski	Bloomingdale	21.19
21	10	Daniel Mandujano	Watervliet	21.28
22	10	Ethan Miller	Centreville	24.13
23	10	Carter Stevens	Galesburg-Augusta	24.64
24	9	Sammy Gamboa	Saugatuck	24.78
25	10	Eddy Granados	Coloma	24.81
26	9	Brennan Nor	Saugatuck	27.03
27	10	Elliot Cole	Parchment	28.10
28	10	James VanderDussen	Kalamazoo Christian	30.30
29	11	Mason Gardea	Fennville	30.93
30	11	Loch Rigozzi	Saugatuck	31.44

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Kalamazoo Christian	52	95+	95+
2	Schoolcraft	85		95+
3	Buchanan	123		68
4	Lawton	136		15
5	Bridgman	136		17

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kendra Koster	Lawton	1.02
2	10	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	2.69
3	12	Sofia Oertel	Lawton	2.97
4	12	Annika Sytsma	Kalamazoo Christian	4.30
5	12	Caley Kerwin	Schoolcraft	6.04
6	12	Lydia Kruis	Comstock	6.26
7	10	Madeline Young	Buchanan	6.86
8	11	Angel Miller	Parchment	6.88
9	10	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	9.90
10	10	Clara Fast	Bridgman	10.03
11	12	Aubrey Herder	Kalamazoo Christian	10.87
12	11	Nidia Martinez	Fennville	12.83
13	12	Bethany Brown	Parchment	15.22
14	12	Rachel Allabaugh	Kalamazoo Christian	15.27
15	12	Autumn Major	Centreville	15.89
16	11	Morgan Lowell	Watervliet	16.23
17	9	Adyson Baker	Buchanan	16.54
18	12	Hope Zichterman	Kalamazoo Christian	19.35
19	11	Jenna VanDussen	Schoolcraft	20.53
20	10	Jaelynn Little	Bangor	22.10
21	11	Merissa Mendoza	Fennville	22.82
22	9	Ellie Reed	Centreville	23.26
23	11	Natalie Glerum	Schoolcraft	24.56
24	10	Kimberly Romero	Watervliet	26.08
25	12	Summer Fast	Bridgman	26.38
26	12	Camryn Brown	Coloma	26.92
27	11	Alyssa VanDussen	Schoolcraft	27.45
28	9	Makynna Williams	Buchanan	27.83
29	10	Christina Mendoza	Fennville	29.54
30	9	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	31.15

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Otsego	29	95+	95+
2	Berrien Springs	113		79
3	Paw Paw	120		63
4	St. Joseph	125		34
5	Plainwell	135		18
6	Vicksburg	143		6

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Colin Wesseldyk	Otsego	1.21
2	10	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	3.20
3	12	Luke Morrison	Berrien Springs	3.74
4	12	Will Vanderbor	Paw Paw	5.14
5	11	Aiden Kruger	Niles	5.46
6	12	Luke Aldrich	Otsego	6.31
7	9	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	9.22
8	12	Austin Williford	Paw Paw	9.29
9	10	Skye Smith	Vicksburg	10.70
10	12	Pierce Bentley	Otsego	10.89
11	10	Sulley Zietlow	Three Rivers	11.35
12	10	Noah Jarvis	Berrien Springs	13.22
13	11	Dane Bailey	Edwardsburg	15.13
14	12	Will Fiesbeck	St. Joseph	16.01
15	12	Thai Nguyen	Plainwell	16.50
16	12	Haroon Omar	Coldwater	16.52
17	12	Tucker Radgens	Vicksburg	17.56
18	11	Shay White	St. Joseph	17.73
19	12	Sam Markle	Berrien Springs	17.94
20	10	Aidan Goodwin	Otsego	18.19
21	11	Isaac Veen	Plainwell	20.43
22	10	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	21.55
23	11	Matthew Schreiner	Otsego	22.25
24	10	Nolan Park	Sturgis	25.66
25	10	Henry Cox	Plainwell	26.60
26	10	Eli Johansen	St. Joseph	27.37
27	12	Johnathan Pant	Three Rivers	28.67
28	11	Brayden Odell	Vicksburg	29.05
29	11	Aden Webber	Paw Paw	29.97
30	11	Alex Moyer	St. Joseph	31.32

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Otsego	28	95+	95+
2	St. Joseph	45		95+
3	Vicksburg	127		51
4	Stevensville Lakeshore	134		31
5	Plainwell	136		18

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Megan Germain	Otsego	1.29
2	10	Elena Figueroa	St. Joseph	2.88
3	9	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	3.31
4	11	Gail Vaikutis	St. Joseph	4.11
5	11	Logan Brazee	Otsego	4.45
6	10	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	5.21
7	12	Olivia Ippel	St. Joseph	8.09
8	11	Emma Steele	Vicksburg	8.11
9	10	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	10.03
10	9	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	10.32
11	11	Cecilia Ruchti	St. Joseph	11.59
12	9	Josie Longcore	Plainwell	12.33
13	12	Grace Pettit	Plainwell	13.42
14	9	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	14.70
15	10	Preslee Perkins	Stevensville Lakeshore	17.33
16	11	Anezka Pradna	Three Rivers	18.02
17	11	Jennifer Hernandez	Three Rivers	18.32
18	11	Jade Murdoch	St. Joseph	19.99
19	12	Amanda Laughery	Vicksburg	20.24
20	10	Kaylee Sprague	Stevensville Lakeshore	20.31
21	12	Maeline Dehanne	Otsego	20.42
22	12	Claire Ritchey	Edwardsburg	21.14
23	12	Molly Young	Vicksburg	23.64
24	9	Sydney Bir	Sturgis	25.16
25	9	Hannah Wier	St. Joseph	26.47
26	10	Taylor Klimp	Otsego	26.91
27	10	Lainey Yearling	Coldwater	27.07
28	9	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis	31.63
29	12	Sabrina Mills	Allegan	33.03
30	10	Annika DeJong	Stevensville Lakeshore	33.17