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With the coming of championship season comes race projections. And better than previous weeks, race simulations!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, larger meets, and faster meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

With these calculated and simulated, without further ado:

DIVISION ONE

Boys

Marquette is a fairly clear favorite. The Sentinels aren’t up to the elite level of previous squads, but can still score a perfect 15 in their recent GNC Championship win.

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-2 %
1	Marquette	23	95+	95+
2	Sault Ste. Marie	82		83
3	Houghton	98		9
4	Gladstone	98		8
5	Negaunee	167
6	Kingsford	178
7	Ishpeming Westwood	180
8	Menominee	202
9	Escanaba	228
10	Manistique	278
11	Powers North Central	296

Lucas Ballard is the class of the field. Ballard showed track prowess early in his career, dipping under 4:20 in the 1600m as a sophomore, winning the UP D1 800m championship as well. This past spring, he took those honors to two events, including the 1600m in his accolades. It’s taken a bit longer for his potential to shine through on the cross course, but this season, it truly has – running as fast as 15:17 at Bluejay.

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lucas Ballard	Marquette	1.0
2	11	Lake Skytta	Marquette	4.0
3	11	William Lindsay	Marquette	5.5
4	12	Chase Aldridge	Sault Ste. Marie	5.7
5	11	Brandon Van Karsen	Houghton	5.8
6	10	Calvin Carlson	Ishpeming Westwood	8.2
7	12	Vasu Esplin	Marquette	8.2
8	12	Welly Fillmore	Marquette	8.9
9	11	Garrett Crimmins	Marquette	9.1
10	9	Bradley Klann	Menominee	10.5
11	12	Charles Cameron	Gladstone	11.0
12	9	Anthony Messina	Marquette	11.4
13	12	Cavan Mulligan	Kingsford	11.5
14	9	Tyler Rule	Houghton	12.1
15	10	Drew Burtt	Sault Ste. Marie	13.5
16	12	Chuck Cameron	Gladstone	16.6
17	12	David Marone	Sault Ste. Marie	18.8
18	10	Charlie Blair	Gladstone	19.3
19	10	Cole Ceane	Houghton	19.5
20	11	Ian Southwell	Sault Ste. Marie	20.0
21	11	Kingston Berube	Escanaba	20.4
22	10	Nicholas Moulds	Gladstone	20.9
23	10	Tyler Rautiola	Negaunee	23.3
24	12	Easton Hills	Sault Ste. Marie	25.1
25	10	Conor Smith	Kingsford	29.6
26	12	Kaden Malone	Powers North Central	29.9
27	12	Hayden Preston	Sault Ste. Marie	30.7
28	12	Cristian Hayen	Gladstone	31.0
29	12	Tristan Wolfe	Houghton	31.8
30	11	Anders Johnston	Negaunee	33.2

Girls

Unfortunately we haven’t seen any head-to-head matchups between Marquette and Sault Ste. Marie. Each of the teams have thrown down performances that could lead to a title – Marquette placing smack dab in the middle of the Bluejay elite field, placing four girls sub-21. Sault Ste. Marie competed in a similar manner at Holly, placing 4^th in the D3 field, their entire varsity squad sub-22:30 on that muddy day. Marquette’s best performances have come a bit more recently and thus, the Sentinels have landed as the favorite.

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-2 %
1	Marquette	48	82	95+
2	Sault Ste. Marie	59	17	91
3	Houghton	72		7
4	Negaunee	82
5	Kingsford	147
6	Calumet	168
7	Menominee	189
8	Escanaba	194

Just as the team race, the same holds true for the individuals. Asia Jones and Charlotte Jones have each had superb performances worthy of a D1 champion. Asia was sub-20 at Holly and Jackson, Charlotte the same at Bluejay. Charlotte holds the better season best. Asia has unlocked some serious improvement, dropping over 2.5 minutes from the 2025 season.

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Charlotte Jones	Marquette	2.3
2	12	Asia Jones	Sault Ste. Marie	2.8
3	10	Emma Ziegler	Marquette	3.8
4	11	Maria Murvich	Kingsford	3.8
5	11	Holly Cooke	Houghton	4.4
6	9	Julia Plaxco	Negaunee	4.9
7	12	Keira Waterman	Negaunee	9.2
8	10	Brooke Hoppe	Houghton	10.1
9	10	Cora Goulet	Sault Ste. Marie	10.6
10	10	Ava Cantway	Marquette	11.0
11	9	Emma Jukuri	Houghton	11.8
12	12	Winley Brandt	Menominee	11.9
13	11	Evelyn Grant	Marquette	13.1
14	11	Isabeau Woodard	Sault Ste. Marie	14.5
15	12	Norah Woodruff	Houghton	15.5
16	11	Isabelle McCord	Sault Ste. Marie	17.2
17	12	Regan Sporte	Sault Ste. Marie	17.5
18	10	Brynn Wiecich	Negaunee	19.2
19	10	Amira Perrier	Marquette	19.3
20	10	Avah Akerley	Escanaba	20.4
21	10	Kelsey Daley	Sault Ste. Marie	20.7
22	12	Joselyn Mills	Gladstone	20.8
23	9	Clara Niebuhr	Sault Ste. Marie	23.0
24	12	Eryn Veverka	Marquette	23.6
25	11	Bethany McParlan	Calumet	24.7
26	11	Elli Harju	Calumet	25.4
27	10	Sophie Coxon	Marquette	26.1
28	11	Eliza Sicotte	Negaunee	29.1
29	9	Amelia Chouinard	Escanaba	30.9
30	10	Aline Norkoli	Powers North Central	32.1

DIVISION TWO

Boys

The closest projection of the day! Rudyard and Munising have hooked up on a few occasions, the most recent of which at Rudyard’s Autumn Classic. The two teams were separated by five points, the main difference coming through Munising’s depth in the final two scoring spots, where they outscored the Bulldogs by nearly 20 pts. I wouldn’t count out Painesdale-Jeffers, competing right down the street, the Jets coming off a WestPAC Final where they were able to put four boys at 19-flat(ish) or faster.

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-2 %
1	Munising	42	50	77
2	Rudyard	44	38	77
3	Painesdale-Jeffers	50	12	46
4	Brimley	108
5	Ironwood	143
6	Newberry	168

Eli Folkersma is a solid favorite, followed by Kemper Gearhart, Brandon Anderson, and Blake Lakosky. Folkersma has the highest ratings of any D2 folk, consistently in the 160’s or higher. He’s also won every matchup against either of the three. On this Houghton course, Anderson did come the closest to Folkersma, trailing by a 15-second gap. Gearhart has won some recent matchups against Anderson and shares Folkersma’s consistency, albeit a little slower. Lakosky has shown the capability of adjusting to tough conditions, running a 18:30 at Holly on less than an ideal day.

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Eli Folkersma	Rudyard	1.7
2	12	Blake Lakosky	Munising	4.4
3	12	Kemper Gearhart	Ishpeming	4.5
4	11	Branson Anderson	Painesdale-Jeffers	4.7
5	10	Jack LaLone	Rudyard	7.3
6	12	Darren Johnson	Brimley	7.7
7	9	Evan Kelto	Munising	8.3
8	10	Liam Kinnunen	Painesdale-Jeffers	9.0
9	12	Zaine Nichols	Rudyard	11.2
10	9	Orin Shalom	Munising	11.9
11	12	Noah Randell	Painesdale-Jeffers	11.9
12	12	Nolan Dolaskie	Munising	13.6
13	10	Dylan Krause	Munising	13.8
14	10	Liam Hoolsema	Rudyard	15.0
15	12	Tage Rajala	Painesdale-Jeffers	16.4
16	12	Oliver Dankert	Rudyard	16.6
17	10	Carson LEsperance	Painesdale-Jeffers	17.8
18	12	Ben Dryke	Munising	18.2
19	11	Evan Heltunen	Painesdale-Jeffers	19.2
20	11	Jason Parmelee	Hancock	19.5
21	11	Bryce Mitchell	Rudyard	23.1
22	10	Henry Johnson	Painesdale-Jeffers	24.3
23	10	John Green	Gwinn	24.8
24	9	Van Evans	Brimley	26.3
25	10	Kaden McGuire	Brimley	26.9
26	11	Bryce Kevern	Munising	27.1
27	9	Matthew Lupino	Ironwood	27.6
28	10	Axel Hollenbeck	Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer	27.8
29	10	Knox Pulkas	Ironwood	30.4
30	12	Brady Leblanc	Brimley	31.3

Girls

Munising is a good bet. The Mustangs were able to put four girls under 23:00 at the recent Rudyard Autumn Classic, a mini preview between the top-2 projected teams. Munising won that, placing six girls before Rudyard’s fourth.

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-2 %
1	Munising	44	95+	95+
2	Rudyard	66		84
3	Painesdale-Jeffers	75		16
4	Hancock	106
5	Brimley	121
6	Newberry	126
7	Ironwood	195

It’s two teammates, Abby Taylor and Molly McNamara. Taylor has been at the forefront all year, sub-20 in her past five races. She’s also experienced success here, placing in the top-3 of the D3 Finals in each of the past three years. McNamara has been the closest competition, breaking 20:00 a few times, going as low as 19:29 (8 seconds behind Taylor) at Bluejay.

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Abby Taylor	Newberry	1.2
2	10	Molly McNamara	Newberry	2.1
3	9	Emma Conklin	Munising	2.9
4	11	Alena Pietila	Hancock	4.3
5	10	Ashlyn Mitchell	Rudyard	7.0
6	10	Melissa Kirschner	Rudyard	7.2
7	11	Addie Bowerman	Munising	7.7
8	9	Siri Jacobson	Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer	7.9
9	11	Remi Coponen	Painesdale-Jeffers	8.9
10	9	Colleen Rice	Rudyard	9.2
11	10	Sophie Mahoski	Ishpeming	9.9
12	9	Edon Kidd	Munising	13.2
13	9	Natalie Brock	Munising	14.7
14	11	Maya Weiss	Munising	15.1
15	11	Sophia Johnson	Painesdale-Jeffers	15.8
16	11	Zoey Kidd	Munising	16.0
17	12	Lillian Carrick	Brimley	16.2
18	11	Karissa Rautiola	Painesdale-Jeffers	16.3
19	11	Brynn Meyer	Munising	19.8
20	12	Kaylee Baldwin	Norway	21.0
21	10	Jenae Koski	Hancock	22.1
22	10	Evelyn Sturos	Painesdale-Jeffers	22.6
23	12	Audrey Whealy	Brimley	23.0
24	10	Vayda Kinnunen	Painesdale-Jeffers	27.2
25	11	Norah Smart	Brimley	27.3
26	11	Tenley Larson	Painesdale-Jeffers	28.4
27	10	Chloe Asiala	Painesdale-Jeffers	28.8
28	11	Emma DeYoung	Rudyard	29.5
29	11	Annabell Dankert	Rudyard	29.8
30	10	Emma Folkersma	Rudyard	29.9

DIVISION THREE

Boys

Cedarville has the advantage of only needing to score four, Ethan Snyder with a great chance of becoming the individual champion. Rapid River and Forest Park have come together twice in October, with Forest Park winning by single digits each time out. But the Rockets may have had their best performance of the year in a win at the Great Eskymos Chase, putting four boys at 19:20 or faster. St. Ignace, despite being projected 4^th, was only 8 pts. behind Cedarville at the EUP Final. Although there have been some patterns, the smaller field and small margins could lead to upset possibilities.

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-2 %
1	Cedarville	97	61	88
2	Rapid River	110	18	47
3	Forest Park	111	13	38
4	St. Ignace	120	5	16
5	Rock Mid-Peninsula	126		7
6	Stephenson	158
7	Engadine	159
8	L’Anse	168
9	Pickford	173
10	Copper Island Academy	190
11	Eben Jct. Superior Central	237
12	Baraga	306
13	Carney-Nadeau	316

Ethan Snyder has been on a tear all year. Whereas he stayed on the high side of 17:00 throughout his first two cross seasons, he’s been consistently under that mark throughout much of 2026, his senior season. His past five races have all been of the sub-17 variety, including the most recent, becoming an EUP Conference Champion.

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ethan Snyder	Cedarville	1.0
2	10	Ashdeyn Gerow	Rock Mid-Peninsula	2.7
3	12	Jacob Mitchell	Pickford	3.0
4	11	Wyatt Huhn	St. Ignace	5.3
5	9	Liam Bohn	Cedarville	6.8
6	11	Nate Stielstra	Engadine	8.2
7	11	Eddie Franckowiak	Engadine	8.3
8	11	Hayden Smith	Forest Park	9.6
9	9	Niko Reed	Dollar Bay	9.9
10	10	Eli Stiglitz	Rock Mid-Peninsula	11.7
11	10	Owen Truitt	Rapid River	11.9
12	9	Jaxon Klyk	Eben Jct. Superior Central	14.2
13	12	Jae Poma	Rapid River	14.4
14	11	Jack Ruonavaara	Copper Island Academy	16.1
15	11	Rush Hinnen	Cedarville	17.1
16	10	Aiden Gould	St. Ignace	18.7
17	12	Jon Denkins	Rapid River	19.1
18	12	Dietrich Rasner	Forest Park	19.8
19	10	Reuben Rasner	Forest Park	21.3
20	10	Ezra Asher	St. Ignace	22.5
21	11	Kaydan Davidson	L’Anse	22.7
22	9	Brody Denkins	Rapid River	22.8
23	10	Landon Pivatto	Stephenson	23.6
24	9	Trenton Cairns	Stephenson	24.8
25	12	Landon Halkola	Dollar Bay	26.5
26	10	Dominick Williams	Watersmeet Township	29.3
27	9	Colin Geyer	Cedarville	29.6
28	9	Blake Heyboer	Pickford	30.6
29	11	Devin Connor	L’Anse	31.0
30	9	Charlie Johnson	Copper Island Academy	31.1

Girls

The L’Anse girls are about as deep as you’ll get in the UP D3 world. Their roster consists of 14 girls, impressive considering the school only has around 150 students. Anyhow, six of those girls have been sub-24 on the year, providing the numbers that could lead the Purple Hornets to dominate the D3 field.

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-2 %
1	L’Anse	51	95+	95+
2	Rapid River	86		48
3	Ewen-Trout Creek	87		42
4	Eben Jct. Superior Central	97		10
5	Forest Park	110
6	St. Ignace	124
7	Engadine	126

Edye Burdett has been the class of the division thus far, parlaying an excellent MS season last fall into high school success. She’s run the fastest time in UP D3, 19:32. Bree Besonen could be close competition, as Besonen was only 5 seconds back during their last matchup at Superior Central. Throughout much of September, Burdett held higher ratings, but on the latest race from the two, the ratings were almost identical.

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Edye Burdett	Eben Jct. Superior Central	1.1
2	11	Bree Besonen	Ewen-Trout Creek	2.0
3	10	Evonna LaCosse	Rapid River	3.5
4	9	Ellie Zaupa	Forest Park	5.1
5	11	Kwynn Voskuhl	L’Anse	7.2
6	10	Autumn Broomfield	Watersmeet Township	8.2
7	9	Paget Hinnen	Cedarville	9.1
8	9	Lily Halkola	Dollar Bay	9.1
9	11	Lily Froese	L’Anse	10.8
10	11	Kendra Pederson	Eben Jct. Superior Central	12.0
11	10	Sarah Chapman	Engadine	12.1
12	10	Julia Poma	Rapid River	14.7
13	11	AJ Feleppa	St. Ignace	15.2
14	11	Princess Pierre	L’Anse	15.5
15	11	Annie Haataja	Copper Island Academy	15.9
16	12	Sylvia Aho	Chassell	17.1
17	9	Avryl VanOss	Forest Park	17.4
18	11	Vivian Norden	Rock Mid-Peninsula	19.0
19	10	Genevieve Hanna	Cedarville	19.0
20	11	Aaliyah Maki	L’Anse	19.5
21	8	Arianna Jahfetson	Baraga	21.0
22	10	Erika Tourangeau	Rock Mid-Peninsula	22.0
23	12	Tessa Thor	L’Anse	23.4
24	10	Alyssa DeCremer	Ewen-Trout Creek	23.6
25	12	Gabriella Putnam	Stephenson	24.1
26	11	Karly Grant	St. Ignace	25.5
27	10	Dalanna Connor	L’Anse	26.1
28	11	Ashlynn Thompson	Rapid River	27.9
29	10	Leona Schutz	Ewen-Trout Creek	29.8
30	11	Breyelle Bowers	L’Anse	32.3

LEAGUE WEEK IS HERE! Many league championships are coming about this week, a few area championships as well. This will be the final batch of posted rankings. I’ll compute them for next week to include in the regional projections, but won’t post any of them.

Upper Peninsula Rankings are not included as they’ll be competing in the Upper Peninsula Finals on Saturday. Projections to come later in the week!

Just a reminder, ratings are generated via:

• The top 67% (rounding to the nearest whole number) performances of a runner
  • Runners with three or less rated races have all races counted
• Those are then weighed on recency, meet size, and competitiveness of the meet

Those ratings are then compiled and scored as a hypothetical meet. Every runner that’s run a rated race from September 18th on (Ottawa Hills/Holly weekend) is included.

Yes, athletic.net has simulations. These are different than athletic.net because:

• They account for course conditions and distance
  • If you ran a shorter course, you’re likely to be overrated on there
  • If you ran only hilly, rough courses, you’re likely to be underrated on there
• They take your best performance, I capture more of the resume

Mid-September Rankings
Late September Rankings
Championship Season Rankings

As always, these are for fun and a vehicle to drive interest in the best sport in the world. Enjoy!

Team Championship Contenders

Hillsdale Academy still occupies the top spot, even showing their depth through small meets such as their SCAA Championship. The Colts put a perfect 15 on the board, dominating the standings through placing 11 in the top-13. A nice lil’ respite after their victory at Portage. Whitmore Lake still isn’t letting go, however, with their depth pieces having great days at Gabriel Richard. HA has been a bit more consistent, so we’ll use these final few weeks as evidence as to whether the Trojans can make it four in a row.

Individual Championship Contenders

Two girls have separated, two names we’re well familiar with – Libby Smith and Kaylie Livingston. Livingston, of course, has had great success in the D4 arena and MIS throughout the years. Smith, as well. Smith got the better of the last matchup, a runaway victory at Portage, her first ever at that huge meet. Livingston just responded with two efforts that nearly matched her SB, consecutive 18:08’s at both Gabriel Richard and the MIAC Championship.

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	LW Rating	Region
1	12	Libby Smith	Gobles	153.0	31
2	12	Kaylie Livingston	Whitmore Lake	152.4	33
3	11	Callie Sinke	Onekama	144.0	29
4	12	Veyda Conley	Martin	143.2	31
5	9	Faith Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	136.7	31
6	10	Norah Kiley	Kingston	133.1	35
7	11	Sophie Grinage	Leland	130.3	29
8	12	Evelyn Meyer	Hillsdale Academy	122.3	34
9	9	Grace Jolin	Dansville	121.5	33
10	10	Ryleigh Alderink	Holton	120.8	31
11	12	Ava DeYoung	Gobles	118.9	31
12	12	Lauren Shaffer	Gobles	118.3	31
13	12	Kiera Piper	Kalamazoo Hackett	116.2	32
14	11	Julia White	Portland St. Patrick	114.8	31
15	12	Lindsey Nordyke	Byron Center Zion Christian	114.1	31
16	11	Malynda Lambros	Whitmore Lake	114.1	33
17	9	Madalyn Stolz	Dansville	113.4	33
18	11	Cassidy Bowers	Austin Catholic	113.3	36
19	10	Faith Smith	Genesee Christian	113.2	33
20	11	Taylor Wills	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	110.5	30
21	10	Ava Higley	Frankfort	108.4	29
22	12	Addy Zeller	Onekama	108.4	29
23	11	Ava Bates	Lutheran Westland	108.2	36
24	12	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael	107.4	28
25	9	Amy Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	107.2	33
26	10	Audrey Pyle	Concord	107.1	34
27	11	Melodie Hulinek	Bear Lake	106.2	29
28	11	Maizy Matthews	Breckenridge	105.5	30
29	10	Zakia Wagoner	Onekama	105.1	29
30	10	Heather Morris	Hillsdale Academy	104.1	34
31	11	Zoe Fabing	Fowler	102.9	31
32	11	Mea Wesley	Petoskey St. Michael	102.8	28
33	10	Eliza Roberts	Hillsdale Academy	101.8	34
34	9	Clara Thelen	Fowler	101.7	31
35	9	Sophia Messing	Deckerville	100.1	35
36	9	Gabby Weigold	Breckenridge	98.7	30
37	11	Ella Lamb	Royal Oak Shrine	98.4	36
38	9	Norah Tracy	Hillsdale Academy	97.0	34
39	12	Natalie Burpee	Leland	97.0	29
40	10	Isabella West	Mayville	96.8	35
41	11	Deirdre O’Connell	Allen Park Cabrini	96.4	36
42	11	Lorelei Stemme	Hillsdale Academy	95.3	34
43	11	Anna Howell	Bridgman	94.4	32
44	11	Allison Rodgers	Martin	94.2	31
45	12	Madison Smith	Grand Traverse Academy	93.8	29
46	10	Brooklyn Griffin	Buckley	93.6	29
47	9	June Counts	Whitmore Lake	93.6	33
48	9	Kara Unger	Lutheran Westland	93.5	36
49	12	Tess Hoedel	Grand Traverse Academy	92.7	29
50	9	Sierra Sherer	Whitmore Lake	92.3	33

Team Championship Contenders

The main contender and favorite still resides in Lansing. There was a bit of worry in terms of their depth, but the return of Grace Wonch helps solidify the numbers for Lansing Catholic. Even with Wonch busting rust at Greater Lansing, the Cougars were able to place 3^rd amongst a bevy of D1/2 teams.

Individual Championship Contenders

The intrigue and drama heightens here in D3 (and also D2). Three of the four girls listed in last week’s rankings were in action recently. Samantha Schroeder returned to Hudson Mills, a site that’s kicked off her stretch run for the past few years and ran a lifetime best. Caelyn Torry won her division and finished 3^rd overall at Blue & Gold, breaking a nearly month-long streak of victories. Her 18:26 was another note in the portfolio signaling she’s a contender. Tiya Feldpausch perhaps had the best race of the three, hitting a 18:18 at Greater Lansing, 20+ seconds faster than she was at Ledge Meadows a year prior.

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	LW Rating	Region
1	11	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet	150.8	23
2	11	Caelyn Torry	McBain	148.7	20
3	12	Violet Tetil	Caro	148.4	25
4	12	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	147.7	23
5	10	Alaina Civinskas	Roscommon	147.3	19
6	11	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic	143.9	26
7	12	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	143.1	24
8	11	Elliana Max	Kent City	140.8	21
9	9	Isadora Shaw	Lake City	139.1	19
10	11	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central	139.0	20
11	10	Lily Britton	Olivet	137.7	23
12	10	Anna Drauer	Lansing Catholic	137.6	26
13	11	Madisyn Wanstead	Leroy Pine River	135.3	20
14	11	Maisey Toteff	Hanover-Horton	135.0	23
15	11	Piper Lyon	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	134.4	26
16	11	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central	131.6	20
17	9	Grace Jordan	Chesaning	131.1	24
18	10	Calista George	Pewamo-Westphalia	130.5	24
19	9	Merrick Tacktor	Mason County Central	129.2	20
20	11	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	127.8	26
21	9	Maggie Mohrhardt	Traverse City St. Francis	126.4	19
22	12	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian	124.8	25
23	12	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck	124.7	22
24	11	Shelby Zimmer	Kent City	124.0	21
25	12	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	123.2	22
26	10	Ellyse Heyser	Saugatuck	123.0	22
27	12	Leah Sneller	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	122.5	21
28	12	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	122.0	24
29	12	Shelby Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	120.4	21
30	11	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	120.1	25
31	12	Natalie Rosema	Hart	119.8	20
32	10	Madelynn Patterson	Olivet	119.6	23
33	9	Hannah Muladore	Charlevoix	118.9	19
34	11	Hattie Driver	Manistee	118.7	20
35	9	Aubrey Doan	Lake City	118.0	19
36	12	Anna Hallett	Blissfield	116.6	27
37	10	Katherine Schafer	Pewamo-Westphalia	116.1	24
38	12	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck	115.7	22
39	11	Emma Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis	114.8	19
40	10	Lily Sisson	Leroy Pine River	114.5	20
41	9	Abby Creisher	Leslie	114.4	26
42	10	Avery Haynes	Brooklyn Columbia Central	114.3	23
43	9	Lilly Kimble	Jackson Lumen Christi	114.1	23
44	12	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	114.0	19
45	12	Betsy Gooden	Manton	113.8	20
46	11	Elise Renkiewicz	Lake City	113.7	19
47	9	Annie Lloyd	Lansing Catholic	111.9	26
48	12	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	111.7	26
49	12	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs	111.6	19
50	12	Anna DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	111.4	21

Team Championship Contenders

Holland Christian is still the favorite, although Otsego seems closer than ever. I’m curious to see what the odds look like in a few weeks’ time.

Individual Championship Contenders

The same five featured last week are present here again. Caroline Randall had the week off after her Portage victory, Natalya Hoffman won in a dual against cross-town rivals Otsego, Avery Engbers and her Maroons are preparing, hopeful for another championship-filled stretch run. Two girls raced – Jaelyn Ray and Ava Schafer. Schafer returned to the winners’ circle at Greater Lansing, the recent Michigan State commit turning in one of her better races in the past two seasons. Ray took to the fast track at Hudson Mills and absolutely embraced it, racing to a speedy 17:43 and a 25-second victory.

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	LW Rating	Region
1	12	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	162.8	16
2	12	Caroline Randall	Hastings	162.7	12
3	12	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	160.1	14
4	9	Natalya Hoffman	Plainwell	159.9	13
5	11	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian	159.3	11
6	9	Clara Cook	DeWitt	157.2	14
7	10	Eliza Schwass	Ludington	156.0	10
8	12	Maddie Lindley	Holly	153.0	17
9	11	Julia Bambach	Holly	152.9	17
10	12	Mia May	Sparta	152.6	11
11	11	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville	151.2	11
12	11	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich	149.4	15
13	10	Breslyn Klein	Coopersville	148.9	11
14	12	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	148.1	18
15	12	Addison Josephson	Linden	147.8	14
16	9	Annabel Buggia	Williamston	147.3	14
17	12	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	146.7	10
18	11	Mai Nguyen	Plainwell	145.3	13
19	12	Olivia Weiss	Holland	145.2	11
20	12	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian	145.0	11
21	9	Evelyn Goosen	Spring Lake	144.5	10
22	11	Tiffany DeMaagd	Grand Rapids South Christian	144.5	12
23	11	Courtney Floeter	Linden	144.3	14
24	12	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	142.4	15
25	12	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	142.3	11
26	11	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids	142.3	14
27	11	Madison Petty	Adrian	141.3	18
28	10	Alayna Verhage	Otsego	141.0	13
29	12	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	138.9	15
30	11	Grace Leman	Edwardsburg	138.7	13
31	10	Lydia Dwyer	Stevensville Lakeshore	138.2	13
32	11	Elizabeth Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	137.4	16
33	10	Addelyn Sabatke	Otsego	136.6	13
34	10	Lily VanEyk	Grand Rapids South Christian	136.2	12
35	11	Anneliese Passchier	East Grand Rapids	135.4	12
36	9	Molly White	Holland Christian	135.2	11
37	12	Sawyer Reagan	Allendale	134.9	11
38	12	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	134.3	10
39	10	Adelyn Verhage	Otsego	132.8	13
40	12	Zoe German	Fruitport	132.6	10
41	9	Emi Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	132.2	12
42	11	Natalie Hayes	DeWitt	130.7	14
43	12	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	130.4	12
44	12	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	129.8	13
45	12	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	129.7	15
46	10	Addisyn Wood	Sparta	128.8	11
47	11	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	128.6	10
48	11	Addison Bixler	Coopersville	128.5	11
49	12	Lillian Dewey	Hopkins	128.4	12
50	9	Anna Zietlow	Holland Christian	128.3	11

Team Championship Contenders

Ann Arbor Pioneer had the weekend off, much needed after a 5-week stretch that went: Spartan, Holly, Jackson, Bulldog, Portage. Those five meets proved the Pioneer mettle, another heavy favorite entering championship season.

Individual Championship Contenders

In a weekend off for Natasza Dudek, no one has matched the low-16 performances that she’s shown to throw down. That’s no knock on her competitors, who might have the best depth I’ve seen in the D1 realm. Depending on the MIS conditions, it might again take 18:15 or lower to get on the podium. Anyhow, Dudek is the prohibitive favorite.

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	LW Rating	Region
1	11	Natasza Dudek	Ann Arbor Pioneer	188.2	5
2	10	Keira Von Blon	Ann Arbor Pioneer	179.8	5
3	11	Sienna Klemmer	Ann Arbor Pioneer	177.1	5
4	10	Alexandra Scappaticci	Northville	174.1	7
5	11	Adalyn Raab	Zeeland East	170.2	3
6	11	Rachel Smith	Okemos	166.4	4
7	12	Lucia Lachapelle	Northville	161.9	7
8	10	Grace Snyder	Hudsonville	161.5	1
9	11	Ainsley Kelm	Portage Northern	160.8	3
10	11	Emilia Garces	Midland Dow	160.4	2
11	12	Daisy Cox	Rockford	159.7	1
12	12	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West	159.3	2
13	11	Paige Rohda	Berkley	158.4	7
14	11	Alannah Wessel	Romeo	158.2	9
15	11	Savannah Staton	Saline	156.2	5
16	11	Gabriella Mercier	Macomb Dakota	156.1	9
17	12	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	156.0	9
18	11	Charlotte Jones	Rochester	155.2	9
19	10	Brynn Somers	Northville	154.5	7
20	11	Avery Scott	Portage Central	152.5	3
21	12	Chloe Purwin	Hudsonville	152.5	1
22	11	Charley McKay	Brownstown Woodhaven	152.1	5
23	12	Katarina Munson	Saline	151.2	5
24	11	Alexandra Green	Birmingham Seaholm	149.3	7
25	12	Anyla Robinson	Oak Park	149.1	7
26	12	Reese Rosbolt	Romeo	148.8	9
27	10	Giada Mills	Beverly Hills Groves	148.5	7
28	10	Kaitlyn Berg	Midland	148.3	2
29	12	Kodie Snyder	Dexter	147.8	4
30	12	Paige McMeans	Jenison	147.4	1
31	12	Isla Tharp	Ann Arbor Skyline	147.2	6
32	10	Lexie Snyder	Hudsonville	147.2	1
33	10	Jessica Soldan	Rochester Adams	146.7	9
34	10	Grace Meyers	Bay City Western	146.4	2
35	10	Claire Lawrence	Bloomfield Hills	146.2	7
36	9	Brooklyn Thomasma	East Kentwood	145.6	1
37	9	Claire Cubitt	Utica	145.2	8
38	11	Ella Lorenz	Brighton	145.1	4
39	12	Becca Van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	142.8	6
40	12	Abigail Dobry	Dexter	142.5	4
41	12	Lizzie Wernimont	Ann Arbor Pioneer	141.6	5
42	9	Harper Henderson	Jenison	141.3	1
43	11	Lucia Llanes	Ann Arbor Skyline	141.3	6
44	12	Avery DeGrendel	Clarkston	141.3	8
45	12	Morgan Scally	White Lake Lakeland	140.5	8
46	12	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	140.2	3
47	10	Gwyn Faber	Forest Hills Northern	140.0	1
48	11	Lila Edison	Ann Arbor Skyline	139.9	6
49	10	Eleanor Pilsner	Grosse Pointe South	139.9	6
50	10	Ava Montero	Grand Ledge	139.7	4

What’s up, Homeschool kids? I know you’re not in the “official” rankings, but you’re included here. Simulations and projections coming for your MiHS Championship next week.

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	LW Rating
1	12	Gianna Chaignot	GRTC Peregrines	156.3
2	9	Marielle Chaignot	GRTC Peregrines	152.0
3	12	Stephanie DiPiazza	GRTC Peregrines	150.1
4	10	Hailey Sieler	GRTC Peregrines	134.4
5	10	Elise Barber	GRTC Peregrines	132.1
6	10	Eve Webb	GRTC Peregrines	128.9
7	9	Aria Koert	West Michigan Homeschool	123.8
8	12	Ava Skinner	GRTC Peregrines	115.7
9	12	Elyana Davis	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	101.0
10	10	Ava Grosse	West Michigan Homeschool	97.4
11	12	Belle Richardson	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	93.9
12	9	Ellery Novakoski	West Michigan Homeschool	88.6
13	10	Elsie Woldhuis	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	83.6
14	12	Maria Banasky	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	83.0
15	9	Arie Neef	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	81.2
16	10	Beti Kelley	West Michigan Homeschool	80.5
17	11	Gracie Hibma	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	80.3
18	10	Mia Setterington	Capital Homeschool	78.5
19	9	Emma Mast	Capital Homeschool	77.1
20	10	Juliana Nicodemi	MACH	74.3
21	9	Carmella Garritano	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	71.4
22	10	Belle Miller	West Michigan Homeschool	71.3
23	9	Abi Vanderwey	Capital Homeschool	70.7
24	11	Maatje Vanderwey	Capital Homeschool	66.4
25	9	Grace Cogan	Capital Homeschool	61.1

LEAGUE WEEK IS HERE! Many league championships are coming about this week, a few area championships as well. This will be the final batch of posted rankings. I’ll compute them for next week to include in the regional projections, but won’t post any of them.

Upper Peninsula Rankings are not included as they’ll be competing in the Upper Peninsula Finals on Saturday. Projections to come later in the week!

Just a reminder, ratings are generated via:

• The top 67% (rounding to the nearest whole number) performances of a runner
  • Runners with three or less rated races have all races counted
• Those are then weighed on recency, meet size, and competitiveness of the meet

Those ratings are then compiled and scored as a hypothetical meet. Every runner that’s run a rated race from September 18th on (Ottawa Hills/Holly weekend) is included.

Yes, athletic.net has simulations. These are different than athletic.net because:

• They account for course conditions and distance
  • If you ran a shorter course, you’re likely to be overrated on there
  • If you ran only hilly, rough courses, you’re likely to be underrated on there
• They take your best performance, I capture more of the resume

Mid-September Rankings
Late September Rankings
Championship Season Rankings

As always, these are for fun and a vehicle to drive interest in the best sport in the world. Enjoy!

Team Championship Contenders

You’ve got Holland Calvary Christian who is an all-time team, in the argument for one of the better D4 teams ever. Then you’ve got Breckenridge, who would probably win 90% of the years, especially in cases where Calvary (or Potter’s House from ’22) isn’t having a historic season. Thankfully, for Breckenridge and Hillsdale Academy, they’re both youth-driven and will have opportunities down the line.

Individual Championship Contenders

Lincoln Laansma has been the top dawg all year, and rightfully so. He’s turned in sub-16 efforts on numerous occasions – Ottawa Hills, Under the Lights, Portage, Allendale Falcon. He’s won nearly every time out against D4 foes. Anthony Rowe didn’t have his greatest race when facing off against Laansma, running 15:54 in the early morning at Portage. But he did have a great day under less than admirable conditions at Holly, a sign that on a poor weather day, he might gain a bit of an advantage.

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	LW Rating	Region
1	11	Lincoln Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	205.1	31
2	12	Anthony Rowe	Breckenridge	203.1	30
3	10	Abram Fettig	Saginaw Nouvel	200.6	30
4	12	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	199.9	31
5	12	Brady Edwards	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	198.5	30
6	12	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian	198.4	31
7	9	Cooper Burt	Breckenridge	197.4	30
8	12	Kyle Redman	Mesick	195.4	29
9	12	Elias Baldwin	Decatur	189.2	32
10	11	Nolan Koscinski	Bear Lake	188.5	29
11	12	Jacob Ferdubinski	Riverview Gabriel Richard	188.4	36
12	12	Brody VanTuinen	Holland Calvary Christian	186.7	31
13	12	Gibson White	Holland Calvary Christian	186.2	31
14	11	Reagan Downing	Holland Calvary Christian	185.2	31
15	12	Francis Austen	Portland St. Patrick	184.4	31
16	11	Peter Winn	Hillsdale Academy	183.6	34
17	10	Henry Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	183.3	34
18	10	Stephen Holm	Hillsdale Academy	183.3	34
19	12	Owen Ledebuhr	Holland Calvary Christian	182.9	31
20	12	Wesley Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	179.1	30
21	11	Liam Knuth	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	178.8	36
22	12	Timothy Gaebler	Hillsdale Academy	177.6	34
23	12	Dom Chiverton	Breckenridge	176.7	30
24	12	Daniel Chaney	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	176.7	29
25	10	Gus Barr	Breckenridge	176.7	30
26	12	Alec Dodak	Manchester	175.9	34
27	11	Lance Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	175.4	29
28	11	Leo Weaver	Whitmore Lake	174.5	33
29	10	Gavin Bowers	Austin Catholic	173.9	36
30	10	Gabe Schultz	Genesee Christian	173.4	33
31	11	Nolan Stadel	Genesee Christian	171.8	33
32	9	Samuel McIndoe	Novi Christian Academy	171.4	33
33	12	Rush Marsden	Fulton	171.1	30
34	10	James Sanders	Breckenridge	170.8	30
35	10	Fletcher Amos	Gobles	170.6	31
36	11	Christopher Knudsen	Leland	170.4	29
37	11	Owen Jarosz	Frankfort	170.3	29
38	10	Ethan Harrand	Buckley	170.0	29
39	11	Cole Wesley	Petoskey St. Michael	169.5	28
40	9	Linkon Utter	Holland Calvary Christian	169.4	31
41	10	Thomas Sigler	Martin	169.0	31
42	11	Carter Suttmann	Leland	168.9	29
43	9	Benjamin Bolinder	Bridgman	168.9	32
44	11	Campbell Fedderman	Leland	167.1	29
45	11	Joseph Coon	White Cloud	167.0	31
46	11	Jackson Anderson	Muskegon Catholic Central	166.8	31
47	12	Ty Redman	Mesick	166.6	29
48	12	Max Barron	Tekonsha	166.5	32
49	12	Silas Carroll	Ivywood Classical Academy	166.2	36
50	11	Beckett Dennis	Grand Traverse Academy	166.0	29

Team Championship Contenders

Curiously, Hanover-Horton was ranked #2 in the latest iteration of the coaches poll. The Comets haven’t lost a meet against D3 competition all year. The latest of those meets was at Portage, where H-H survived a tough run from Hart, the tremendously deep #2 team in these rankings. Lansing Catholic is probably the best contender to knock either of these two teams off. The Cougars were 3^rd at Greater Lansing, Back a year ago, LC placed 3^rd at Greater Lansing with a 16:43 average. They were just 3^rd with a 16:43 average. Maybe history repeats with the black n’ blue surprise in early November?

Individual Championship Contenders

Things haven’t changed, this is still as wide open as ever. Thanks to Gabriel Richard, we did get a piece of evidence as to how the standings may play out in early November. The triumvirate of Nole Lorenzen, Logan Youngman, and Caleb Blonde all raced the quick Hudson Mills track, and all produced PR’s. Both Youngman and Blonde raced in the Small Schools race, with Logan pulling out a 9-second victory, 15:18 to 15:27. Lorenzen embraced the opportunity to use the confidence gained from his Oakland County title, ripping a 15:10 while being pulled along in the Large Schools race.

Will Hulin, Luke Herron, Hunter Eaton, and Christian Craanen all did what was necessary for victories throughout the week. All ran a bit slower, but those performances did not do anything to diminish their chances in a few weeks. And Cooper Flick had the weekend off. Lucky guy!

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	LW Rating	Region
1	12	Luke Herron	Caro	210.9	25
2	11	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	210.6	26
3	12	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton	209.1	23
4	12	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale	207.6	23
5	12	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	206.3	19
6	11	Will Hulin	Centreville	205.3	23
7	11	Christian Craanen	Monroe St. Mary CC	203.5	27
8	12	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	202.6	23
9	12	Chad Tyson	Hanover-Horton	200.7	23
10	10	Spencer McNitt	Maple City Glen Lake	200.7	20
11	11	Owen Poppema	Bath	200.2	24
12	12	Owen Windgaston	Clawson	197.5	26
13	10	Asher Putman	Reese	197.4	25
14	10	Isaac Cox	Plymouth Christian Academy	196.4	27
15	12	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River	196.2	22
16	11	Eli VanPoortfliet	Benzie Central	195.5	20
17	12	Evan MacLaren	Ithaca	195.3	24
18	12	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	195.1	24
19	12	Abraham Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	195.0	20
20	11	Soren Crosthwaite	Jackson Lumen Christi	193.9	23
21	12	Naveen Kulkarni	Ann Arbor Greenhills	193.6	27
22	10	Max Reed	Centreville	193.3	23
23	11	Silas Ackley	Hart	192.7	20
24	12	William Gancer	Stockbridge	192.5	26
25	11	Michael Weidmayer	Blissfield	192.4	27
26	9	Nick Overweg	Centreville	192.2	23
27	11	Jackson Bowman	Saugatuck	191.9	22
28	12	William Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	191.4	19
29	12	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic	191.2	26
30	10	Wesley Mair	Montague	191.0	21
31	12	Cage Edingfield	Benzie Central	190.6	20
32	12	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic	190.4	26
33	12	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix	189.5	19
34	12	Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi	189.4	23
35	11	Timothy Wolff	Hart	188.9	20
36	11	Tristan Hernandez	Kingsley	188.5	20
37	11	Edison Huizinga	Manistee	188.5	20
38	11	Noah Sills	Blissfield	188.2	27
39	11	Wyatt Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	187.5	23
40	12	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck	187.3	22
41	11	Nolan Kessler	Montague	187.2	21
42	12	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City	186.5	19
43	12	Collin Fucile	Jonesville	186.0	23
44	9	Coen Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	185.9	26
45	12	Owen Sytsema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	185.5	21
46	12	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck	185.5	22
47	12	Carson Ackley	Hart	184.7	20
48	12	James Tennes	Lansing Catholic	184.4	26
49	12	Landon Madden	Delton-Kellogg	183.9	21
50	11	Aurie Selph	Charlevoix	183.1	19

Team Championship Contenders

Well, there has to be one division where it appears there will be no drama. Holland Christian came in as the #1 team in the pre-season, and while many of the other teams in the division have stepped up, the Maroons still occupy the top spot by a decent margin. The HC boys started off with bangers at Portage Central, UTL, and Ottawa Hills. Their last few meets (Portage and Otsego) haven’t been their strongest, but each resulted in blowout victories over a ton of ranked squads.

Individual Championship Contenders

Just as last week and all year, it’s all Bobby Jazwinski. Jazwinski just had one of his slower efforts of the year, a 14:46 to win the GMAA Championship.

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	LW Rating	Region
1	12	Robert Jazwinski III	Whitehall	229.7	10
2	11	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic	213.1	15
3	11	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids	208.0	12
4	12	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	207.1	16
5	12	Mitchell Dunlap	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	206.6	11
6	12	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	205.0	15
7	12	Broden Ladd	Holly	204.2	17
8	12	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	203.8	13
9	12	Lukas Albright	Big Rapids	203.8	10
10	10	Logan Cristian	Parma Western	203.5	14
11	11	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian	203.3	12
12	12	Mason Hill	Allendale	202.0	11
13	11	Jack Hincks	Detroit Country Day	201.4	16
14	10	Grant Lampen	Holland Christian	200.8	11
15	12	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	200.7	15
16	12	Thomas Fisher	East Grand Rapids	200.5	12
17	12	Nick Parker	Frankenmuth	200.3	15
18	11	Ethan Ferguson	Edwardsburg	200.2	13
19	9	Drew Franken	Holland Christian	199.9	11
20	12	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	198.9	13
21	11	James Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	198.6	12
22	12	Seth Betzold	Essexville-Garber	197.8	15
23	12	Lincoln Reed	Pinckney	197.8	16
24	11	Duncan Palmer	Williamston	197.5	14
25	11	Cole Heikka	Holly	197.4	17
26	12	Bryce Falbe	Muskegon Oakridge	196.5	10
27	10	Zander Stewart	Holland Christian	196.4	11
28	12	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg	196.1	13
29	11	Liam Dewitt	Haslett	195.9	14
30	11	Christian Pavlige	Fruitport	195.7	10
31	11	David Kore	Three Rivers	195.7	13
32	12	Wyeth Angus	Chelsea	195.3	16
33	12	Cole Coffman	Holland Christian	195.0	11
34	12	Cameron Crane	New Boston Huron	194.8	18
35	11	Grayson Michels	Forest Hills Eastern	194.3	12
36	12	Jack Frentz	Petoskey	194.2	10
37	12	Ben Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	193.9	15
38	12	Seth Randall	St. Joseph	193.7	13
39	12	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	193.5	17
40	10	Zach Diller	Holland Christian	193.3	11
41	11	Andrew Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	193.3	17
42	11	Rex Pumford	Whitehall	193.2	10
43	12	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	192.8	13
44	12	Reeve Oberman	Petoskey	192.3	10
45	9	Camden Clevenger	Goodrich	191.4	15
46	12	Connor Pepin	Croswell-Lexington	191.4	17
47	11	Aiden Lambers	Holland	191.3	11
48	9	Connor Charboneau	Saginaw Swan Valley	190.4	15
49	10	Parker Smith	Adrian	190.2	18
50	10	Leland Sowle	Parma Western	190.0	14

Team Championship Contenders

Four teams have separated from the rest of the bunch – Brighton, Jenison, Ann Arbor Skyline, and Traverse City West.

Some have put it together on all of the days – Brighton and Jenison in particular have been solid each time out. There was an exception a time or two, Brighton didn’t have their greatest day at Portage (still won) and Jenison faltered a bit there too (4^th place – that’s a high floor). But for the most part, each squad has raced at a consistently high level all year.

Traverse City West has brought it when needed – examples being wins at Bluejay, Ottawa Hills, or Pete Moss. Ann Arbor Skyline has been a bit more inconsistent, but when they’re on, they’re really on. This has come in the forms of various meets like Jackson and Holly, where they won or went toe-to-toe with Brighton, or even just individual performances like Roman Stilwell’s massive PR on Saturday.

Individual Championship Contenders

By the numbers, it’s divided into eight kids and two tiers.

The first one contains Caden Livermore, Kamari Ronfeldt, Jack MacGregor, Samuel Baker, and Luka Hammond. When it’s been a huge meet, Livermore has prevailed, winning both at Spartan and Portage. But the rest are clearly capable, all throwing down sub-15 efforts at some point this fall.

The second tier has Brandon Cloud, Matii Tarekegn, and Marshall Huhn. The former two have shown that on the right day, they can hang with and compete with the top bunch. The prime example would be at Ottawa Hills, where Huhn and Tarekegn pushed each other to a 14:59 photo finish. Cloud’s case rests on his recent prowess, a 15:06 at Portage, but also his championship acumen. He showed much heart in his close of this spring’s 3200m. And at this date last year, he owned a PR >15:30, a mark that was dramatically lowered in the final weeks of the season.

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	LW Rating	Region
1	12	Caden Livermore	Grandville	221.9	1
2	12	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	220.9	5
3	12	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central	219.0	3
4	12	Jack MacGregor	Howell	219.0	4
5	12	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	218.9	1
6	12	Brandon Cloud	Northville	216.4	7
7	12	Matii Tarekegn	East Kentwood	216.1	1
8	12	Marshall Huhn	Lowell	215.0	3
9	12	Jacob Szalay	Saline	213.0	5
10	12	Austin Mercado	Salem	213.0	6
11	10	Archer VerHage	Grand Haven	211.4	1
12	11	Gavin Katic	Fenton	211.3	2
13	11	Xavier Solgot	L’Anse Creuse North	209.0	9
14	11	Rylen Richey	Grand Ledge	208.6	4
15	12	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West	208.6	2
16	12	Coen Hill	Dexter	207.9	4
17	11	Cooper McNaughton	Clarkston	207.9	8
18	11	Alexander Allen	Alpena	205.0	2
19	10	Josh Keillor-Beale	Brighton	204.8	4
20	11	Johnathan Elsea	Mount Pleasant	204.6	2
21	11	Todd Tobin Jr	Highland-Milford	204.4	8
22	12	Logan Gessford	Midland	203.7	2
23	10	Tanner Smith	Zeeland West	203.5	3
24	12	Caelan Marsh	Grand Ledge	203.0	4
25	10	Grant Kulesza	Brighton	202.8	4
26	12	Josiah Derksen	Rockford	202.7	1
27	11	Mourad Algahmi	Dearborn Fordson	202.4	5
28	10	Hudson Doll	Ann Arbor Skyline	202.3	6
29	10	Tucker Asman	Brighton	202.2	4
30	12	Ethan Burks	Jenison	202.1	1
31	11	Roman Stilwell	Ann Arbor Skyline	202.1	6
32	11	Finn Frost-Grayson	Traverse City West	201.6	2
33	11	Lucas Campbell	Rochester	201.4	9
34	12	Justin Johnson	East Kentwood	201.3	1
35	11	Aidan Schwalbach	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	201.3	9
36	11	Carter Cooke	Jenison	201.3	1
37	11	Caleb Conner	Jenison	201.2	1
38	11	Nikhil Ball	South Lyon East	201.2	4
39	10	Tommy McCormick	Grand Blanc	201.1	2
40	11	Kilian Boulware-Lopez	East Lansing	200.9	4
41	11	Chase Sherman	Jenison	200.4	1
42	11	Sean Thompson	Caledonia	200.4	3
43	12	Nick Martens	Dexter	199.9	4
44	11	Rem Piper	Holt	199.7	4
45	11	Marcus Essling	Portage Central	199.7	3
46	12	Colin Stawasz	Lowell	199.2	3
47	11	Luke Bultman	Rockford	199.2	1
48	11	Roarke MacArthur	Brighton	199.0	4
49	10	Lucas Naspinsky	White Lake Lakeland	199.0	8
50	10	Aiden Doggett	Highland-Milford	198.9	8

What’s up, Homeschool kids? I know you’re not in the “official” rankings, but you’re included here. Simulations and projections coming for your MiHS Championship next week.

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	LW Rating
1	11	Abenezer Olson	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	205.8
2	12	Noah Rice	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	198.5
3	12	Evan Armstrong	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	195.4
4	11	Eli Miller	GRTC Peregrines	191.1
5	11	Andrew Egli	GRTC Peregrines	186.1
6	10	Colton Childress	Monroe Milers	185.2
7	12	Anthony Schmitz	GRTC Peregrines	183.6
8	11	Tyler Egli	GRTC Peregrines	182.9
9	10	Calvin Graham	GRTC Peregrines	182.8
10	12	Jacob Ziolkowski	GRTC Peregrines	182.4
11	12	Brennan Ackerman	GRTC Peregrines	181.5
12	12	Brian Artman	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	180.6
13	11	Timothy Adair	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	179.3
14	11	Daniel LaRoy	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	175.6
15	10	Dawson Kolehouse	West Michigan Homeschool	173.9
16	9	Kyle Whitacre	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	169.0
17	12	Riley Weed	West Michigan Homeschool	166.2
18	11	Garrett Potts	MACH	166.1
19	12	Nathan Perez	MACH	163.4
20	12	Caleb Miller	West Michigan Homeschool	162.6
21	9	Zeke Lindell	West Michigan Homeschool	156.9
22	12	Landon Juilleret	North Trails	155.2
23	10	Joel Vanderwey	Capital Homeschool	152.3
24	12	Andrew Urben	MACH	150.5
25	9	Parker Moore	West Michigan Homeschool	149.1