This is the second installment in the preseason rankings. The first version included returning runners only. This version takes those returning runners and adds in their projected improvement.
Projected improvement was calculated in two ways. One, looking at the difference between groups of similar runners (let’s say freshman boys between 170-175), removing anomalies, and then seeing where they rated the next year. The other looked at those who improved their ratings from 2018 to 2019, then assumed they’ll continue on that same pattern for 2020.
These do not include incoming freshman. I’m working on that now and will release another set before track begins. Enjoy!
I felt that given the day and conditions, these were a bit higher. As the season played out, that seemed to be the case. Romeo didn’t perform as highly as the numbers projected, which is odd given their success and ability to peak. Metro Beach has commonly been about 10-15 seconds faster than this at the beginning of October. In coming years, I’ll likely use the reference runner method more often, which will hopefully attain a bit higher accuracy.Â
ACCURACY
Girls Top 10: 9 of 10 Boys Top 10: 9 of 10 Girls Medal Stand: 18 of 21 Boys Medal Stand: 19 of 21
GIRLS
For a few years now, Romeo has been the class of Macomb County. They have a great setup over there, country roads, a strong feeder program, and steady leadership at the top. Projections had them winning the meet, but they scored much lower than anticipated. Maddie Malczewski’s return played a major role in lowering that score. Her track season had been her best (2:16, 10:56) yet, but she suffered an early summer stress fracture. High school injuries aren’t worth derailing a running career, and it appears sitting her out until October was the right call. She ended the season returning to the medal stand at MIS.
Ella Fulmer was a huge reason in Utica’s rise. Her September results bring about an issue with projections. Her 28:12 at Old Skool was a large factor in her 54th place projection. These sort of results, are they part of a larger pattern or just an anomaly? Given Ella’s career, we know it’s more of the latter. Anyhow, at this point in the season, her 20:46 was a 45 second season record. She ended up nabbing the last spot at a competitive Goodells Regional, matching her PR (19:50) in the process.
BOYS
Look at that, Romeo again. One of the great advantages of having depth is the added security in case of subpar, or even average races. That added security can be a solid performance or even an outstanding one. Jack Wilson rebounded from a subpar race at Spartan with a victory here. Joey Tavalieri pulled off an upset last year (recovering from anemia during this season, watch out for him in the spring), Wilson was able to cruise to a win this time around. He ran one of the more patient races at MIS, finishing 8th when he may not have even been top 30 entering the infield.
Romeo may have a challenger next year. As of now, I have Macomb Dakota as #10 in the 2020 Projections (the update will be released after Christmas). The progression of Jacob Harberts is a major factor, his 16:35 here was a 19 second PR. Even that improvement couldn’t have predicted his 9th place regional finish. Many kids hit times that were out of their respective worlds, Harberts may have been the most incredulous. We all know that 4th and 5th runners play an important role in scoring. Both Cameron Stermer and Nathan Vohs ran season PRs, enabling Dakota to move ahead of a crowded pack.
Cross country is made up of runners and coaches and parents and supporters. All of those involved in a program are actual people. People living their day to day lives and showing up to practice, race, cheer, encourage, and lead. I love the numbers, digging deep to make sense of it all, but the people make up the sport.
The last few weeks of the season are a time of championships and trophies and in many of these meets, I attempted some projections. Throughout this offseason, I want to review those projections and share stories of those who performed against those projections. I’ll do so in chronological order, beginning with this Berrien County Meet.Â
Girls Top 5: 4 of 5 Boys Top 5: 4 of 5 Girls Medal Stand: 18 of 25 Boys Medal Stand: 18 of 25
GIRLS
By the time of this preview, Bridgman’s quality had been known. Prior to the season, I had projected them 17th, but by late September, they had risen to the top spot. That rise largely came through two factors, a great showing at the Shamrock Invite and Arie Hackett. I’ll delve into those girls more later, they’re great.Â
Two teams that moved up a bit from the projections were Berrien Springs and St. Joseph. McKenzie Geralds was the big mover for Berrien Springs, she PRed by over a minute. Then the next week at Portage, dropped another minute! Lauren Koch of St. Joseph followed a similar trajectory, PRing by 50 seconds here, then dropping another 85 seconds the next week.
Judging by that, one could assume the course was a little slow. Given that Portage runs fairly close to the baseline, it follows that those two girls continued to improve relative to others as the season wore on.
BOYS
Berrien Springs lived up to these projections. They were hit with some rough news to begin the summer. The Shamrocks had steadily been moving up in the Division 3 ranks, now were fighting for a spot out of regionals in Division 2. Of those 149 teams in Division 2, only one had a lower enrollment. Must have been motivating as they successfully qualified, then finished 18th.
Their top guy, Ashton Sheline, has dropped time in each of his three seasons of cross. Coming into this race, he was projected to win, and win he did. A week later at Portage, he dropped a serious PR (16:22). That 16:22 continued a streak of constant improvement. Ashton has lofty, yet extremely attainable goals for next year.Â
All seven of St. Joseph’s boys outperformed their projections. Throughout his career, Michael Melvoin had been hovering around 19:00, mainly on the higher side of that barrier. Even with the tougher terrain, he was able to drift down into the 18:30’s. That trend continued throughout, PRs happened, sub-18 happened. Hopefully this begets future success.Â
