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This is a little list of those who have publicly made their college choices. If you’re aware of any more, please let me know!

2019

GIRLS

Name	Team	Division	High School
Taylor Sempf	Adrian	D3	Peck
Anna Fedewa	Aquinas	NAIA	Spring Lake
Brianna Eisenga	Aquinas	NAIA	McBain
Mia Patria	Arkansas-Little Rock	D1	Clarkston
Elka Machan	Ball State	D1	Coldwater
Madelyn Malczewski	Belmont	D1	Romeo
Makenzie Brownrigg	Bluffton	D3	Davison
Abby Olson	Butler	D1	Holland West Ottawa
Alexa Keiser	CMU	D1	Fenton
Ashlyn Nagel	CMU	D1	Bay City Western
Natalie Newcombe	CMU	D1	Remus Chippewa Hills
Jelena Prescott	CMU	D1	Bad Axe
Emily Paupore	CMU	D1	Negaunee
Michelle Kuipers	Colorado Christian	D2	Holland Christian
Kori Baumann	Cornerstone	NAIA	Allendale
Audrey Conrad	Cornerstone	NAIA	Lowell
Tori Vander Veen	Cornerstone	NAIA	Jenison
Elizabeth Bennett	Cornerstone	NAIA	Rockford
Riley Ford	Dalton State	NAIA	Marlette
Meghan Dieball	DePaul	D1	Grosse Ile
Kiera Snyder	East Tennessee State	D1	Port Huron Northern
Susie Huckle	EMU	D1	Cadillac
Allissa Ash	Ferris St.	D2	Byron
Lauryn Coleman	Ferris St.	D2	Galesburg-Augusta
Taryn Chapko	GVSU	D2	St. Johns
Gillian Fiene	GVSU	D2	Holland Christian
Landyn Howell	GVSU	D2	Forest Hills Eastern
Jessica Schamanek	Hope	D3	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
Olivia Quillan	Hope	D3	Grandville Calvin Christian
Therese Joffre	Hope	D3	Midland
Isabelle Hawkes	Kalamazoo	D3	Kalamazoo Central
Hannah Schurman	Kalamazoo	D3	Rochester
Emily Haigh	Kalamazoo	D3	Portage Central
Annalise Bailey	Kalamazoo	D3	Ann Arbor Skyline
Kennedy VanderLugt	Kellogg CC	NJCAA	Plainwell
Lizzie Sult	Kellogg CC	NJCAA	Battle Creek Harper Creek
Jaden Theis	Michigan	D1	Lansing Catholic
Makenna Veen	MSU	D1	Plainwell
Ellie Kendell	MSU	D1	Royal Oak Shrine
Julia Bajt	MSU	D1	Spring Lake
Margaret Coney	MSU	D1	East Grand Rapids
Raegan Lauinger	Northwood	D2	Goodrich
Kameron Haag	Northwood	D2	Clare
Avery Stadt	Northwood	D2	Boyne City
Molly Dickinson	Northwood	D2	Alpena
Molly Kitson	Northwood	D2	East Jordan
Maryam Sheena	Oakland	D1	Walled Lake Western
Jennifer Ohlsson	Oakland	D1	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
Seanna Schmidt	Oakland	D1	Milan
Barret Schettler	Oakland	D1	Romeo
Sydney Goodrich	Ohio Northern	D3	Romeo
Addie Somers	Olivet	D3	St. Johns
Tonya Tepin	Olivet	D3	Cedar Springs
Taryn Campbell	Olivet	D3	Olivet
Alex DeVault	Olivet	D3	Algonac
Heidi Palmer	Rochester	NAIA	Macomb Dakota
Bailea Kohler	Rochester	NAIA	Bad Axe
Sydney Wofford	Rochester	NAIA	Yale
Nicole Marco	Saint Louis	D1	Forest Hills Central
Lily Connelly	SC4	NJCAA	Croswell-Lexington
Zofia Dudek	Stanford	D1	Ann Arbor Pioneer
Jenna Picard	SVSU	D2	Bay City Western
Emma Banning	SVSU	D2	Saginaw Heritage
Ahna VanderWall	Taylor	NAIA	Petoskey
Isabella Johnson	Toledo	D1	Temperance Bedford
Olivia Kochevar	UDM	D1	Walled Lake Central
Cassie McDougall	UM-Dearborn	NAIA	Livonia Stevenson
Faith Barthnik	UM-Dearborn	NAIA	Ithaca
Morgan Aittema	UNLV	D1	South Lyon East
Emily Esker	Wayne State	D2	Livonia Franklin
Anna Petr	Wisconsin	D1	East Grand Rapids
Brooke Soper	WMU	D1	Okemos
Jenna Kral	WMU	D1	Hudsonville

BOYS

Name	Team	Division	High School
Aiden McLaughlin	Air Force	D1	Morley-Stanwood
Conor McPartlin	Albion	D3	Marshall
Jack Wilson	Butler	D1	Romeo
Jack Leman	Butler	D1	Edwardsburg
Shawn Little	Campbellsville	NAIA	Dowagiac Union
Nick Flegel	Cleary	NAIA	Kent City
Hunter Zartman	CMU	D1	Otsego
Steven St. John	CMU	D1	Hudsonville
Teddy Eising	Concordia	NAIA	Royal Oak
Garrett Melling	Davenport	D2	Hanover-Horton
Kyle Foulk	Detroit-Mercy	D1	Coldwater
Ryan Kachnowski	Ferris St	D2	Walled Lake Western
Dakota Ames	Grace College	NAIA	Mendon
Ashton Brennan	GRCC	NJCAA	Zeeland East
Scott Spaanstra	GVSU	D2	Brighton
Eli Meder	Hope	D3	Lansing Catholic
Ben Lentz	Hope	D3	Charlevoix
Patrick Dunfee	Kalamazoo	D3	Ann Arbor Greenhills
Oliver Rubin	Kalamazoo	D3	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
Joseph Farley	Kent State	D1	Petoskey
Aaron Nachazel	Lake Superior St.	D2	East Jordan
Hunter Richards	Lawrence Tech	NAIA	Yale
Hunter Assenmacher	Lawrence Tech	NAIA	Ida
De’Andre Morris	Lawrence Tech	NAIA	North Huron
Noah Rodriguez	Lawrence Tech	NAIA	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes
Jared Pemberton	Lawrence Tech	NAIA	Yale
Nathan Alton	Lawrence Tech	NAIA	Royal Oak
Daniel Phillips	Loyola	D1	Mattawan
River Jannette	Metro State	D2	Ortonville-Brandon
Jack Spamer	Michigan	D1	Brighton
Zacahry Stewart	Michigan	D1	Brighton
Anthony Hancock	Michigan	D1	Dearborn Divine Child
Michael Hancock	Michigan	D1	Dearborn Divine Child
Jozef Meyers	Michigan	D1	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
Cade Kaighen	Michigan Tech	D2	Hartland
Brendan Favazza	MSU	D1	Clarkston
Alex Penski	MSU	D1	Holt
Owen Huard	MSU	D1	Dexter
Andrew Nolan	MSU	D1	Lake Orion
Luke Perelli	MSU	D1	Detroit Catholic Central
Nathan Larson	MSU	D1	Dexter
Tyler Pritchett	MSU	D1	Midland
Andrew Frohm	Northwood	D2	Vandercook Lake
Thomas Young	Northwood	D2	Ann Arbor Skyline
Carson Laney	Northwood	D2	Jonesville
Jackson Turnbow	Northwood	D2	Grand Blanc
Todd Henley	Northwood	D2	Hopkins
Carter Solomon	Notre Dame	D1	Plymouth
Adam Jesse	Oakland	D1	Fenton
Adam Hill	Oakland	D1	Royal Oak
Trey Plichta	Oakland	D1	Sanford-Meridian
TJ Brooks	Oakland	D1	Clinton Twp. Chippewa Valley
Luke Schwartz	Oklahoma	D1	Romeo
Hayden Germain	Olivet	D3	Pewamo-Westphalia
Cameron Smith	Olivet	D3	Swartz Creek
Fernando Jimenez	Olivet	D3	St. Johns
Shane Sauber	Olivet	D3	Hanover-Horton
Jackson Arkles	Olivet	D3	Leslie
Andrew Lane	Pepperdine	D1	East Lansing
Havi Carroll	Rochester	NAIA	Hamilton
Jaydon Moleski	Rochester	NAIA	Cedar Springs
Carter Owens	Rochester	NAIA	Flint Powers Catholic
Trenton Fagan	Rochester	NAIA	Sterling Heights
Garrett Goulding	Rochester	NAIA	Port Huron
Caleb Carson	Rochester	NAIA	East Jordan
Jonathan Craun	RPI	D3	Romeo
Gideon Howard	Spring Arbor	NAIA	Shepherd
Luke LaPrad	Spring Arbor	NAIA	Monroe Milers
Charlie Wilson	SUNY-Geneseo	D3	Romeo
Noah Verlinde	SVSU	D2	Armada
Bryan Jackson	SVSU	D2	Clio
Tyler Buchanan	Wayne State	D2	Linden
Evan Bishop	Wisconsin	D1	East Grand Rapids

I was bored, okay?

These will be released in four phases:

1. Returning runners (now)
2. Returning runners and their projected improvement (January)
3. Adding in incoming freshmen (March)
4. Post-track (June)

And somewhere in there, divisions will be sorted out and there might be some shifting around.

DIVISION 4

Boys	Rank	Girls
Unionville-Sebewaing	1	Kalamazoo Christian
Carson City-Crystal	2	St Philip Catholic Central
Webberville	3	Bridgman
Mason County Eastern	4	Hillsdale Academy
Concord	5	Clarkston Everest Collegiate
Dansville	6	Johannesburg-Lewiston
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	7	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
Beal City	8	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
Deckerville	9	Allen Park Cabrini
The Potter’s House	10	Adrian Lenawee Christian

DIVISION 3

Boys	Rank	Girls
Traverse City St. Francis	1	Hart
Hart	2	Grandville Calvin Christian
Charlevoix	3	Shepherd
St. Louis	4	Benzie Central
Caro	5	Ithaca
Saugatuck	6	Charlevoix
Grandville Calvin Christian	7	Clare
Bronson	8	St. Louis
Ithaca	9	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
McBain	10	Traverse City St. Francis

DIVISION 2

Boys	Rank	Girls
Fremont	1	Petoskey
Otsego	2	East Grand Rapids
St. Johns	3	Otsego
Sparta	4	Grand Rapids Christian
St. Clair	5	Frankenmuth
Yale	6	Cadillac
Battle Creek Harper Creek	7	Tecumseh
Chelsea	8	Warren Regina
Flint Powers Catholic	9	Forest Hills Eastern
Spring Lake	10	Grand Rapids South Christian

DIVISION 1

Boys	Rank	Girls
Romeo	1	Traverse City Central
Ann Arbor Pioneer	2	Northville
Caledonia	3	Brighton
Salem	4	Salem
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	5	Ann Arbor Pioneer
Highland-Milford	6	Plymouth
Northville	7	Saline
Rockford	8	Canton
Hartland	9	Troy
Traverse City Central	10	Romeo

Above are the graphs from the Boys MITCA race this past weekend. The line hits the y-intercept at 943, so the adjustment is 54 seconds faster than AF2018.

So for Brendan Favazza, the formula is:

(1560-(931.1+54))/3 = 191.6

He won the race, one loaded with all-state talent. THIS DOESN’T MAKE ANY SENSE. IT SHOULD BE HIGHER.

Here is the problem with the graphing method. It assumes that the field you’re comparing is equal.

Allendale Falcon is a pretty fair representation of an invitational. MITCA is not. Neither are States or Regionals. The faster runners are competing and many below our top sevens are not. The line for these races ends up trending towards too low of a number.

That’s where I use REFERENCE RUNNERS.

This late in the year, there are 35,000+ performances from either boys or girls, on average of about 6-7 rated races per runner. There is a built in expectation of one’s rating, and that’s what I used to determine the adjustment for MITCA.

Name	MITCA Time	Unadjusted Rating	Name	2019 Rating	Difference
Aidan Hollandsworth	19:35.2	128.3	Aidan Hollandsworth	162.9	-34.6
Akshay Reddy	16:44.3	185.2	Akshay Reddy	194.4	-9.1
Alan Atkinsmith	17:37.0	167.7	Alan Atkinsmith	169.4	-1.7
Alex Lawhorne	20:18.1	114.0	Alex Lawhorne	135.5	-21.5
Alex Mathews	19:14.9	135.0	Alex Mathews	151.2	-16.2
Andrew Daniels	19:13.7	135.4	Andrew Daniels	140.6	-5.2
Andrew Grier	19:43.5	125.5	Andrew Grier	117.8	7.7
Andrew Lane	15:56.1	201.3	Andrew Lane	204.5	-3.2
Andrew Nolan	15:44.7	205.1	Andrew Nolan	207.5	-2.4
Andrew Sesti	16:20.9	193.0	Andrew Sesti	194.9	-1.9
Armaan Lehal	21:56.1	81.3	Armaan Lehal	98.8	-17.5
Austin Aldrich	19:06.8	137.7	Austin Aldrich	159.3	-21.6
Austin Smelker	17:51.8	162.7	Austin Smelker	173.2	-10.4
Bo Anderson	18:48.8	143.7	Bo Anderson	151.9	-8.1
Braxton Shutko	19:03.7	138.8	Braxton Shutko	147.5	-8.7
Brendan Favazza	15:31.1	209.6	Brendan Favazza	216.7	-7.1
Brenden Schroeder	17:58.3	160.6	Brenden Schroeder	176.6	-16.0
Brenden Wallace	20:59.6	100.1	Brenden Wallace	118.0	-17.9
Bryce Brown	17:07.6	177.5	Bryce Brown	178.3	-0.8
Bryce Mathews	18:53.9	142.0	Bryce Mathews	142.8	-0.7

Here, I am determining how much slower Shepherd ran compared to the average rating. I had 143 matches, showing Shepherd was 7.9 rating points slower than the average rating.

But as with the graphing method, I want to eliminate outliers. Taking the average of the data points between the two lines, Shepherd ran 7.3 points (or 22 seconds slower) than the average rating.

So again, for Favazza:

(1560-(931.1-22))/3 = 217.0

Personally, I prefer using the graphing method first, especially in larger fields. We’re blessed here to have large meets opening the season, such as your Ann Arbor Early Bird, Pete Moss, Corunna, Portage Early Bird, or Under the Lights. Those help set a standard for using reference runners to begin the season. For the record, reference runners were the primary method used for Regionals and State.