Category: Regional Previews

Seven regions in seven days.  That’s all we’ve got left.  I had a great day at the XC Mini Clinic, learned quite a bit for when I eventually coach, but also thought up some things and stats I want to bring forth to promote the sport this season.  But in order to do that, I have to follow through on my promise to preview all regions.  And that involves posting one on a Friday night.  Hopefully some of you stat geeks out there will find this interesting.

GIRLS

The Saugatuck team in general is just a great operation.  Both boys and girls have had recent success.  They move back up to Division 3 this time around after a two-year stint in Division 4.  Their girls have had four straight top-5 finishes in either division.  I don’t think that streak will last, but the program is set up for success.  High participation and a track record of improvement give stability, and of course pressure to live up to previous years should fuel their entire season.  Galesburg-Augusta should be tough to crack.  Their top three can compete with anyone, but it’s not as if it ends there, their 4^th-7^th should place higher than many respective runners from other teams.

Ranked Teams: Galesburg-Augusta (13), Bloomingdale (22), Saugatuck (24)

Highest Rated

• Lauryn Coleman, Galesburg-Augusta

Lauryn’s October was extremely consistent.  Starting at Portage and going through States, her times never deviated more than 20 seconds.  That kind of consistency moves you up in these ratings, it’s much valued as a coach and fellow teammate as well.  She ended up 3^rd here and 40^th at States.  Her 11:57 on the track lends thought to the belief that she’ll be well into the 19’s this time around.

• Abigail Schlabach, Centreville

Abigail and Lauryn may as well be 1a and 1b.  The separating factor seems to be Lauryn’s track season, but don’t discount head to head battles either.  Abigail was 2^nd in this region and 35^th in the State.

• Aubree Sedore, Galesburg-Augusta

At her best, Aubree can be right there with Abigail and Lauryn.  Her 20:00 at Mendon an example of that, as she beat both of them.  The remainder of the year, it’s not as if she ran poorly or inconsistently.  33^rd at Portage, 5^th at regionals, times mainly in the mid to high 20’s.  I’m excited to see if she can build on that Mendon performance this year.

Career achievement/improvement

• Aimee Sustaita, Bloomingdale

Aimee is only a junior, but she’s had a little improvement thus far in her career.  She began her freshman year a tad late, debuting in 25:02.  She ended up dropping almost 3.5 minutes from that time, all in all, a successful start for any freshman girl.  Those drops didn’t stop there, as a sophomore she was able to dip into the 20’s, both at Otsego Bulldog and two SW10 Jamborees.  If course conditions had been a bit drier, that would’ve happened at MIS as well.

Darkhorse

• Jillian Vera, Saugatuck

Another rare case of a senior being a darkhorse.  Jillian had a similar track season in 2019 to her 2017 season, especially in the 1600m.  Following that (freshman) season, she went on to run 19:55 in XC.  Saugatuck will need her to be that kind of frontrunner that she’s capable of becoming.

BOYS

Once again, Saugatuck.  But you have trophies, results, and returning studs, you’ll end up being rated or ranked high.  On the state level, it will likely be between them and Hanover-Horton (the Charlevoix kids are confident they’ll be in the mix too).  As you’ve noticed, I’m scoring it out as I go, but my gut tells me H-H will have a slight edge based on the strength of their 3^rd-5^th.  But the other factor is Saugatuck’s ability to develop runners that are deep into their career.  Through his junior year, was Corey Gorgas NAU material?  Maybe, maybe not.  He answered that with a resounding yes during this past season.  Many of their kids could step up and likely will.

Ranked Teams: Saugatuck (1), Bloomingdale (12)

Highest Rated

• Nik Pettinga, Saugatuck

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• Max Sharnas, Saugatuck

An unfortunate aspect of Saugatuck moving up is we don’t get to see Max and Mason Sumner duel for the next three years.  Going into the season, there was a debate over who was the better runner.  In cross, I believe Sumner won the debate.  In track, the argument could go either way.  Max’s string of performances near or under 17:00 in XC were great, but going 4:34/9:47 on the track shows he’s got more coming.

• Alvaro Martinez, Bangor

With Ashton Sheline and Berrien Springs moving on to the tougher pastures of D2, Alvaro is the highest returning runner here.  His 16:47, a PR, was good for 2^nd here.  He nearly matched that at MIS, a 16:52, good for 26^th.

• Walker Barz, Buchanan

Although he lacked the early season times that Sharnas had, Walker ended at nearly the same level.  Buchanan ran many races last year and it’s impressive that a freshman was able to peak, that peak being very dramatic as well.  After eight early season races near 18:00, Barz ran a 17:33 at Berrien County, not a course that runs particularly fast.  By season’s end, he was at 17:04.  Should also mention his 10:07 on the track.  I have all four of these boys as All-Staters.

Career achievement/improvement

• Zach Trainor, Bangor

It should be very apparent; I love when kids drop serious time.  Maybe it’s realizing talent, could be having no talent other than the ability to work hard.  I’m not sure what happened between Zach’s freshman and sophomore year, but I’d love to find out.  More than 1:30 was subtracted from his previous best.  He ran 17:47 twice, most importantly at this regional, where he placed 13^th.

Darkhorse

• Joe Furlan, Bloomingdale

Joe made some serious leaps on the track this spring.  2:14 to 2:04, 4:45 to 4:36, and 11:22 to 10:29.  The 16 and 32 suggest he’s capable of running into the mid-16’s.  His best last year was 17:04 at Otsego.

Looking forward to the mini clinic tomorrow.  Hope to see some of you there!

GIRLS

Not often you see a team battle that may score out this way, but it’ll likely be a unique competition between Marshall and Plainwell.  Plainwell has an outstanding top three, it might even be the best top three in the entire state (if Dudek is truly not coming back).  Marshall likely won’t dent into that, but they can put their next five in front of Plainwell’s fourth.  Of course, there are other teams involved that will impact the scoring.  But both teams are impressive in their own way, Marshall will likely be better in larger meets, Plainwell in smaller meets, relatively speaking.  They’re both great and are the class of this region.

Ranked Teams: Plainwell (3), Marshall (14), Parma Western (19)

Highest Rated

• Makenna Veen, Plainwell

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• Elka Machan, Coldwater

Elka returns from an outstanding outdoor campaign where she set some major PRs.  Hard to pick an event that stands out so I’ll list them all.  2:29 > 2:20, 5:23 > 5:03, 11:39 > 11:06.  Her transformation really started to take part during cross last year, as she dropped nearly two minutes from her best time.  That improvement led to a 2^nd place finish here and 17^th at MIS.

• Grace Pettit, Plainwell

Another impactful incoming freshman, Grace was defeated only once last year.  She hovered around that 12:00 mark, but threw in a few 11:40ish performances.  She ran similar times during track, but her one indoor performance stands out, a 3200m at Grand Valley where she hung with the likes of Lani Bloom and Maddy Malczewski.

• Mackenzie Hill, Plainwell

Mackenzie really came on strong as last season went on.  She spent much of September running over 20:00, then busted out a 19:22 at Otsego Bulldog.  She finished at 18:59, which was good for 16^th at MIS.  Mackenzie showed some mid-distance ability on the track, going 2:22/5:11

Career achievement/improvement

• Kayla Eklund, Richland Gull Lake

For the past two seasons, Kayla has been an individual qualifier over at Gull Lake.  2018 produced her highest regional finish, a 5^th place.  Her race there was also a PR, 19:15.  She’s another one that threw out some major PRs on the track, 5:47 > 5:24 and 13:31 > 12:01.

Darkhorse

• Alyna Lewis, Parma Western

I feel obliged to include a girl from Parma.  They’re a top-20 team, likely to make it out of here.  Alyna stepped in as a freshman last year and went 19:21. She was 7^th here, but really stood out in the 800m, where she ran 2:17.

BOYS

Admittedly, I know very little about Hastings.  They’ve not been a traditional power, at least as far back as I can remember.  One should love their experience, their top seven are all seniors.  And thus, this team race shouldn’t be too much of a competition.  Hastings has both depth and the frontrunners.  Charlotte has a chance to pull into that 3^rd spot if they can find a fifth runner, but I believe GR South Christian and Marshall are pretty impenetrable, they both have enough backup in case one of their top 5 has a bad day.

Ranked Teams: Hastings (13), Grand Rapids South Christian (25)

Highest Rated

• Koby Fraaza, Richland Gull Lake

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• Todd Henley, Hopkins

Gotta love Todd’s gradual progression into a great runner.  He’s steadily dropped time, 17:45 to sub-17 to almost breaking 16:00.  His PR of 16:03 came in a 2^nd place performance at Allendale Falcon.  Times slowed a bit as the season went on, but he did secure another 2^nd place at this regional.

• Kobe Blanco, Charlotte

One thing for sure, Kobe is putting in work this summer.  He’s been Charlotte’s stud for the past two years, with multiple performances in the 16’s.  He may have had better times in 2017, but he was able to finish the season in 2018 with an individual qualifier and an 82^nd place at States.  Like many others, he made a major leap in track, dropping down to 4:29.

• Micah VanderKooi, Grand Rapids South Christian

Micah is an 800m sensation that’s also shown some cross ability.  His best season arguably came as a sophomore, where he went 15:56.  The track is where he really shines, for much of the season, he was in the top 5 in the state.  He finished his season with three straight 1:56.x races and a 4^th place at States.

Career achievement/improvement

• Aidan Makled, Hastings

For the past two seasons, Aidan has finished top-6 at this regional.  Both years, he’s spent the end of the season consistently running in the 16’s.  He should be at the head of the Hastings group this time around.

Darkhorse

• Kyle Foulk, Coldwater

Kyle’s inconsistency last year ended up hurting him when it came to his ratings.  He definitely showed some potential, a 16:42 at Otsego Bulldog being an example.  Some steps were taken in track, starting at Golden Triangle.  A 9:56 there led to a 9:48 at regionals and a 9:51 at States.  If he’s in that form, he’s contending with Henley, Blanco, and VanderKooi for that 2^nd spot.

GIRLS

I mistakenly skipped over Region 13 and instead started on 14 before realizing the error.  But boy am I glad I worked on this one, it is LOADED.  And it’s not just the EGR girls.  Eliminate them and you have to be in the 20:45 range to even think about qualifying.  With them, you’ve gotta break 20.  To be blunt, the team battle will likely be boring.  You have three top-5 teams, and then no one else is ranked.  And of those top-5, East Grand Rapids is clearly in their own league.  I hope they face off against Pioneer at some point this season.

Ranked Teams: East Grand Rapids (1), Lansing Catholic (4), St. Johns (5)

Highest Rated

• Jaden Theis, Lansing Catholic

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• Taryn Chapko, St. Johns

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• Anna Petr, East Grand Rapids

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• Ainsley Workman, East Grand Rapids

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• Margaret Coney, East Grand Rapids

Hard to believe that a girl who’s run multiple 18:3x times isn’t top-3 here, but that’s the reality of this region.  Margaret dropped some serious time to finish her junior year.  Her PR came from the regional race, an 18:34.  More impressively, she was able to go 18:38 at State.  Also, she will kick you down on any homestretch.

• Katie Hessler, East Grand Rapids

Late October, Katie reached down deep and flashed some of her true potential.  Her season had a few great performances, Otsego Bulldog and Bath, but her regional race was her first time under 19:00.  She followed that up with an even better State meet.  All in all, she dropped 52 seconds from her sophomore year, over a minute when adjusting for course.

• Lauren Hunter, Haslett

On the middle school level, Lauren was unbeaten last year.  As we all know, courses run differently.  Different lengths, conditions, competitions.  Lauren was so precise, only one race outside of the 11:50-12:10 range.  She did compete at the Mideast qualifier, running 19:09.  Her track track record was unblemished as well, 2:23/5:19/11:54 (11:35 PR).

Career achievement/improvement

• Faith Schafer, Williamston

Faith hasn’t been a world beater while at Williamston, but her consistency is something to marvel at.  She’s been a state qualifier three times now, all three them from finishes between 10^th and 12^th place.  Last season had her best State performance, where she was 61^st.

Darkhorse

• Lucy Petee, Mason

Lucy has always been a 400/800 star.  She began her career running 60/2:17, she’s now moved to the 58/2:14 realm.  She’s shown some XC ability in the past, breaking 19:00 a few times in 2017.  She’s as good a bet as any to get back there.

BOYS

The boys’ side is similarly stacked.  Not only does one as an individual need to be sub-17 to be in the qualifying conversation, but SIX top-25 teams are present here.  Poor dang Lansing Catholic, Ionia, and Forest Hills Eastern.  There might be some other teams prone to an upset, but the top teams here rely on their pack more than their individuals (even with Evan Bishop).

Ranked Teams: Haslett (2), East Grand Rapids (5), St. Johns (8), Lansing Catholic (15), Ionia (16), Forest Hills Eastern (22)

Highest Rated

• Evan Bishop, East Grand Rapids

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• Ethan Rockburn, Belding

Starting at Shepherd’s Bluejay Invite, Ethan had a steady string of mid-16 races.  Most impressive of which was probably the last one, a 16:23 (20^th) at States.  He’s also your defending regional champ, which obviously will be a tough task to repeat.  It will still take a fight to give that up.  Concentrated more on the 1600m in track, ended up running 4:28.

• Ben Clason, Forest Hills Eastern

Ben would make a good candidate for the massive improvement category.  In most of his freshman races, Ben hovered in the 19:00 range.  By the end of the year, he was able to drop down under 18 at Otsego.  Last season, Ben started in the same time zone but ended in the 16’s.  He had another outstanding race at Otsego, his 16:30 placed 10^th and he was 14^th in the always tough Region 11.  Really showed his mettle in track, going 9:42 in the 3200m.

• Danny Ezzo, Haslett

Danny and his Haslett teammates should be close to interchangeable this season.  He’s their highest returner from States and Greater Lansing.  Greater Lansing was his best race of the season, where he went 16:23 and finished 5^th.

Career achievement/improvement

• Jacob Dennis, St. Johns

Not often I’ll put a junior here, but Jacob made such a dramatic improvement that he warrants mentioning.  He started off his career as a freshman running 20:51 at Spartan.  It was a little into his season this time around, but he ran 17:18 at the same race.  He largely ran around that time for a majority of the season, but made a serious drop at regionals, going 16:35.

Darkhorse

• Josiah Magley, Ionia

Other upcoming sophomores such as Espen Lehnst and Nathan Alford could easily be picked here, this is just the biggest surprise given his XC season.  And it wasn’t much of a surprise, Magley in the high 17’s for a good bit of the year.  Then he turned around and went 4:42/10:04 on the track.  Wouldn’t be shocked if he, along with others, is in the mid-16’s this season.  What a region.