Category: Regional Previews

GIRLS

Region 2 is about as well-represented of a region you’ll find.  One team in the top 10, one ranked 11-20, one ranked 21-25.  It’s fair, there’s a battle at the top, but shouldn’t be too much drama past the top three teams.

Bay City Western has been well-documented.  Their distance relays just finished an outstanding season, finishing 1^st in the 4×8 at States and 3^rd in the DMR at NBN.  They return three of those girls, Ashlyn Nagel, Karissa Picard, and Jenna Picard.  The rich even get richer as Ashlyn’s younger sister, Ambria Nagel moves up to join the team.  From their social media, one thing present is the positive accountability their coaches provide, much attention is given to the work their athletes put in.

Fenton returns four girls from a squad that finished 9^th at last year’s State Finals.  What would normally be a tough job to replace over 40% of your top 7 is an afterthought, as they had 9 girls under 21, 4 of which being freshmen.  Emily Grob is probably the most impressive of those, she ended up going 5:38 in track.  The girl I’d expect to outperform her rating is Jessica Adams, her 12:26 in track was a massive PR and no fluke either, as she had multiple performances in the mid-12’s.

The freshman class will have a large impact on Grand Blanc.  Sophia and Lola Thomas were both able to run in the 12’s as middle schoolers last year.  They’d often finish 2^nd or 3^rd, mainly because Skylar Lee was out there winning.  Skylar then ran 5:20/11:35 in track, expect her to be one of the better freshmen girls in the state.

Madi Szymanski is coming off a freshman year where she was able to spend much time in the 19’s.  She had a breakthrough race here, finishing 6^th in 18:37.  That carried over to track, where she ran 5:22 in early April.  Her season was cut short, hopefully she’ll be back in form in a few months.

Can Emma Banning recapture her form from her sophomore year?  Track season indicates that could happen, a 5:29 is definitely in line with the low 19 performances she’s capable of and has run in the past.

BOYS

Fenton could very well possibly place five runners in the top 20.  Adam Jesse is a top 30 runner, but he did this mainly on the back of his track season.  His 9:29 was a bit better than some of his counterparts who finished similarly at MIS.  Two other members of their crew also had excellent 32 times, Gage Bond and Logan Canada.  Gage nearly broke 10 and Logan snuck right under.  As with Jesse, both were improvements in condition in relation to XC.  They’re one of a few teams (Stony Creek, TCC, Cedar Springs) that should be on the cusp of that top 5.

Prior to last year, I may have thought Saginaw Heritage would be in a rebuilding year.  They had potential, but probably underdogs to make it to States.  Lo and behold, they made it again.  I’m curious to see where they’ll place on JFTMichigan’s list of consecutive qualifiers.  They’re a young team that has put many people under 18, meaning my top 7 might not be the top 7 at year’s end.  There’s potential, but there’s also protection against subpar performances or injuries.  Brady Neumann is their top guy.  As a sophomore he was able to finish 8^th here last year and then run 9:55 in track.

Davison is projected as the third team here, largely on the strength of their 5^th-7^th runners.  The race between them and Midland Dow should be equal through their top 4s, but Davison can take the next 3 spots.  That shouldn’t diminish the track season of Jason Millis, which was outstanding.  4:31/9:43, if he continues that form, could put him in the top 3 here.

Jeremy Williams has been begging and pleading for this preview, he should make a leap this fall.  His track profile indicates someone who’s more endurance-based, even if that didn’t show last year.  9:59 as a freshman shows the potential, even with the greater weight applied to XC, he’s still rated top 15 here.  Long story short, he could be higher.

He doesn’t know it, but Cameron Smith has long been a bane of my existence.  Common names screw with Excel sheets (looking at you too, Paige Anderson and Jacob Brown).  He broke the 10 minute barrier this spring.  He was 11^th last year and looks to be putting in mileage already this summer.

GIRLS

One only has to peek at their athleticnet homepage to realize Ubly’s success over the years.  At States, they were runner-ups two years ago and 8^th last year.  They’re favorites for another regional championship and are in the running for another top-10 finish this year.  They’re led at the top by Josie Gusa.  Josie broke 20 for the first time here last year and went on to finish 23^rd a week later.  For a Division 4 school, they have great numbers and what looks to be a strong MS feeder program.  Two runners coming into 9^th grade should make an impact, Maze Gusa and Abigail Guza.

Breckenridge benefits from moving out of a hellish mid-Michigan region.  They’d undoubtedly be in a battle with Carson City for the final spot there, and it would be a shame to leave out a top-15 team.  Annie Laurenz must be extremely athletic.  She’s a record-setting hurdler for their track team, then turns around to run cross and be an excellent front runner.  Watch out for Elizabeth Snow, she was able to set a significant 3200m PR, and if that carries over, she could be close to the top 10 here.

I feel Deckerville and Owendale-Gagetown both deserve a spot at State finals.  I consider myself a maps nerd and I didn’t even know the towns of Owendale or Gagetown existed.  That’s a credit to their coaches, able to build a program from a little-known area.  They’ll benefit from the Haldane family, Madelyn Haldane being the best runner of the bunch.  Madelyn was able to finish 10^th here last year.  Deckerville benefits from the Sanford family.  The oldest, Abigail, has been a stud for them for her first two years.  She also pole vaults.  We saw a 100/800 double earlier, now a distance/pole vault.  Kids these days.

Riley Ford is the defending regional champion.  She finished 5^th at MIS last year and dropped a significant amount of time from her 1600m, 5:41 to 5:16.

Both Makara Kramer and Haley Rowbotham qualified out of this region last year and ended up finishing All-State.

BOYS

It’s no secret that I feel Breckenridge is the #1 returning team on the boys’ side of Division 4.  They’ve got state meet experience, young runners, and a coach who cares.   Mason Sumner was arguably the best freshman outside of Metro Detroit.  He nearly broke 16:00 at an early MSAC Jamboree and recorded top 10 finishes at Holly, Portage, Carson City, and States.  Not to mention taking some titles at Lancer and Shepherd’s John Bruder Classic.  Speaking of rising sophomores, don’t sleep on Trent Carter, who flirted with the 17 min. barrier in the latter stages of the year.  An athlete that could seal the deal for Breckenridge is Jonathan Markley.  Thanks to my buddy Michigan XC Nerd for pointing his track times out, 4:51 after running in the high 18’s last fall.

Unionville-Sebewaing is another top 5 team in this region.  They follow a similar pattern, a good mix of under and upperclassmen.  Ty Pavlichek had some breakout races last year, his 24^th at Holly and 31^st at Wagener Park stand out.  Bentley Alderson was an All-State performer, finishing 12^th.  That momentum carried into track, where he dropped a 4:35 1600m.  I don’t feel Sumner is touchable here, but if he builds on that, 2^nd place is within reach here.

From there, it’s between Mayville and Deckerville.  Deckerville really has the… deck stacked against them?  Tough to be placed in a region with three top 10 teams.  Deckerville has potential, one runner that could vault them into contention is Kendall Dumaw.  He won some middle school meets, Cass City and Laker.  Finished no lower than 9^th on the season and broke 12:00.  I err on the extremely conservative side when projecting incoming freshman.  I currently have him as Deckerville’s 4^th runner.  For comparison, his brother, Brett Dumaw, ran slightly slower in middle school and 18:14 as a freshman.    Brett Tanton is another one that has shown potential.  He’s gone under 5:20 the last two years, last year it didn’t translate, but could it happen this year?

Beating Mayville will still be tough.  Wyatt Emmons will undoubtedly be top 5 here.  Not only is he fast, he was remarkably consistent in the latter stages of the season, finishing 3^rd here and 14^th at MIS.  Jerry Gilbert threatens to put two runners in front of Deckerville’s first.  The race, as many do, will come down runners 3-7.

A few other runners stand out to my eye.  Ronny Hudson has dropped 3 minutes from his freshman to junior years.  He was 7^th here last year.

Matthew Halifax is similar, to a lesser degree.  20:05 to 18:34 last year.  His 5:05 in track suggests he’s still on an upward trajectory.

GIRLS

As will often happen with Division 4 regions in our great north country, many teams can bunch up near the front. Here, the projections have 5 teams within 40 points of one another. A freshman, a newcomer, or an unseen summer work ethic can all factor in shaking up what we’d expect.

East Jordan has an established team, a fact that will often lead you in divisions of low enrollments. Alie Pennington and Molly Kitson are upperclasswomen, sticking it out with the program for years. They’ve consistently been in the low 21:00 range. Molly was 4^th here last year and spends track season sprinting around. Alie was 8^th and her 1600m time indicates she has some room for improvement in XC.

Johannesburg-Lewiston provides some contrast. Of their projected top 7, nearly all are in their initial 2 years of the program. Incoming freshwoman Adelaida Gascho has run sub-13 a few times as a middle schooler. She also knocked out a 5:42 this track season. Sydney Townsend is the lone upperclasswoman on this squad, she finished 2^nd here last year.

Ellsworth is one of those teams that has dipped into the 8^th grade pool. An example of a successful girl running above her age is Maia Romeyn. Maia finished 7^th here, 18^th at Class D (love this concept of a meet by the way). Her 12:36 in track indicates some improvement has been made, if so, she could make her way into the top 3 this time around.

For Gaylord St. Mary and Rogers City, a girl coming out of nowhere can produce an impact that may not be felt in larger fields. Alivia Zaremba is an example of that, as an 8^th grader she was 5^th last year, she went on to narrowly miss All-State, but run a 13 second PR in the process at 20:36. Can they find another 8^th grader? For Rogers City, it might be Samantha Schlak coming in and having a freshman season similar to Morgan Baller.

After missing out last year, hopefully Teegan Dawson will be able to compete at regionals. She had a slightly better start than her season in 2017, where she qualified for States with a 13^th place finish. I’m confident she can make that happen again. A 6:09 1600m (14 second PR) can extrapolate out to another top-15 finish.
BOYS

East Jordan is likely the main challenger to Breckenridge this fall. They’re a senior-laden team, ready to lay it all on the line in what will be, for many of them, their final race together. I’d worry about being foreboding here, but this is a strong group that should walk through regionals. I’m always looking for those runners who have shown progression throughout their career. Their top 4 are great examples of this and I don’t think one stands out above the other, so I’m listing them all: Ethan Nachazel, Aaron Nachazel, Ben Hardy, and Caleb Carson.

Johannesburg-Lewiston is led by one of the stronger runners Up North in Carlos Gascho. Carlos won this region last year, then finished 8^th at MIS. He followed that up with two All-State performances in track, 5^th in the 800/3200. I always chuckle when people think it’s impossible to double at a State meet. Carlos pulled off one of the harder ones and he’s still kicking.

Indian River Inland Lakes has a small, but capable team. They’ve been helped by two major improvements. Charlie Kennedy dropped 40 seconds last year, breaking 18:00 for the first time at regionals (7^th place), then repeating that performance the following week. Hunter Bishop had the incredible drop from 21+ minutes as a freshman to the 18’s the past two years. He should be in that range again this year.

Now that Troy Athens’s jett li has gone and graduated, it’s time to find a new favorite name and I think I’ve found mine. Hailing from Onaway, none other than Jager Mix! Since this is a high school site, I will not divulge my favorite mixers for a certain beverage, but I will tell you that he ran exceptionally well for a freshman. 18:33 last year, unfortunately he did not have a great race here at regionals, but I’m hoping he redeems himself this year.