Category: Regional Previews

(Muskrats, sadly will not be present on the course.  Watch out for that hornets nest in the woods!)

GIRLS

Romeo is the clear favorite here on the girls’ side.  They just reload.  Two years ago, they graduated Hannah Toner.  Last year, they graduate Ashley Quinn and Charlene Yarema.  Ah, the product of talent, an intense middle school program, and good coaching.  Madelyn Malczewski rebounded from XC to put down a great track season.  She showed much improved speed in the 800, dropping 5+ seconds and broke 11:00 for the first time.  My personal opinion is that my numbers have her underrated and she’s deserving of a top-30 spot.  It also doesn’t hurt when your underclassmen are dedicated to the spot.  Sarah Greb and her family have been around the sport for years and the Felstow triplets are apparently potentially great leaders.

Lake Orion is obviously lead by the talented Sophie Novak, but one runner does not a good team make.  You need girls like Abby Locke, who has dropped time all throughout her career.  You need girls like Rochelle Smith to come into the program as an upperclasswoman and drop 2 minutes in 2 months.

Jessie Schamanek from Stoney Creek has always been there in XC, but never to the extent that she was in the 1600 this spring.  Her 5:09 was an 8 second PR, we will see if that carries over.  Stoney benefits much from Clarkston’s move.  This was an extremely tough region with Clarkston in it, now a bit more manageable.  On the other hand, Clarkston moves to a horrifically hard region.

The top girls in this region are full of stories of those who’ve improved throughout their careers.  Heidi Palmer is one where it took awhile longer than others, thus the payoff must be sweet.  Her PR this spring of 12:33 is over a minute better than what she ran last year.  She broke 20:00 for the opfirst-time last year, followed it up 9 days later with an identical performance, finishing 31^st.  If she can run at, or slightly better than that 12:33, she has a great shot of making it out.

BOYS

Romeo vs. Stoney Creek will be a war.  It’s a shame Clarkston isn’t here.  Clarkston’s absence gives Lake Orion, a deserving team, a great shot of advancing.  My projections have Clarkston’s move as fair, at least on the boys’ side.  Girls is a different story.

I work with many people associated with Stoney Creek and Romeo, personally, this will be enjoyable for me to watch on the sidelines. I know Stoney Creek is about as much of a close-knit team you’ll find.  I know the Romeo coaches are great caretakers of the program.  My projections have this coming down to individual battles:

Sam Tarling & Rob Cockfield vs. Charlie Wilson

Name	Sam Tarling	Rob Cockfield	Charlie Wilson
Regionals	16:17	16:09	16:20
States	16:29	16:29	16:28
800m	1:57		2:06
1600m		5:04	4:32
3200m			9:47

 

Matt Medaugh vs. Luke Schwartz

Name	Matt Medaugh	Luke Schwartz
Regionals	16:23	16:17
States	17:03	17:18
800m	2:02	2:02
1600m	4:27	4:25
3200m		9:53

 

Tristan Brandenburg vs. Jack Kelke

Name	Tristan Brandenburg	Jack Kelke
Regionals	16:43	16:51
States	17:13	17:21
800m		2:14
1600m	4:48	4:34
3200m	9:55	9:50

 

Kurt Kehren vs. Zander Cobb

Name	Kurt Kehren	Zander Cobb
Regionals	16:22	16:51
States	18:02	17:03
800m
1600m		4:44
3200m		9:58

 

Whomever takes 3 out of these 4 matchups is likely your regional champion.  Of course, you can always throw 6^th and 7^th runners into the mix.  Jack Wallace, Owen Sharnas, Nick Fringer, and Colin Hanson are all capable of running with these folks.

Andrew Nolan can also challenge Jack Wilson.  Hey, here’s another chart:

Name	Nolan	Jack
Regionals	15:29	15:20
States	15:54	15:54
800m		2:01
1600m	4:17	4:17
3200m	9:32	9:22

 

Lake Orion also has a rising sophomore, Hong Bing Tang.  I’m looking forward to seeing what he can accomplish.  His XC season was solid for a freshman, but not spectacular.  He did finish 51^st here and was on the cusp of a sub-17.  It appears he made a leap in track, running 4:44/10:21, also finishing 3^rd in both long distance events at Freshman Oakland County.

I’m not too well-versed on the Rochester Adams runners.  Doing my research, Justin Childers really caught my eye.  Justin’s first ever cross country race was a 23:36 at a time trial his freshman year.  His most recent race was a 16:20 here last year.

Scott Masterson had an interesting track season.  It’s not often you see someone pulling off a 100/800 double.  He’s gone sub-12 multiple times in the 100, qualified for States in the 800 (1:57.3), and finished 11^th here last year.  If I’m a college coach, this is intriguing…

 

 

 

GIRLS

For whichever reason, Harbor Springs was omitted from the preseason top 25.  But don’t worry, they’re here!  They’d be ranked 8^th, so if you’re below them, move yourself down a spot.

Harbor Springs will give Traverse City St. Francis a fair race, but the first four St. Francis girls will likely lock it up.  Libby Gorman is the returning champion here, she followed that up with a 16^th place finish at States.  Track season was a success as well, PRs in both long distance events, with a narrow miss at the podium for the 1600m.  A breakthrough candidate could be Megan Arntz.  She mainly concentrated on the 400/800.  She threw down a 2:46 relay split, nothing spectacular, but solid enough that makes you think she could improve from last year.

Harbor Springs gets by on their depth.  They have 6 individuals that could qualify on their own.  Maye Burns could be the frontrunner they need.  She finished 4^th here last year (adding Chmielewski to the mix moves everyone down), then busted out a 11:42 in track.  If she moves up a few spots into TCSF’s top two, that makes things more interesting.  Ella Deegan had some serious breakthroughs in track.  She knocked off more than a minute from her 3200 to 13:01, but a more impressive time in my mind is her 5:39 1600.

Charlevoix, Roscommon, and Kingsley are all top 25 teams (19^th, 13^th, 17^th respectively).  Charlevoix is the favorite here because of the strength of their 3^rd and 4^th girls, Annie Bergmann and Megan Scholten.  We’re going to give Scholten a lifetime achievement award.  Three appearances at MIS in three years of XC.  Bergmann gets an award for most improved, knocking 2:00 off her previous best from 2017.

Two girls that could give Roscommon and Kingsley some hope for a minor upset are Josie Fairbanks and Morisa Schleich.  Fairbanks ran in the mid-13’s consistently during her middle school season.  Schleich set two huge PRs in 6:08 and 12:53. Both times are indicative of a girl capable of finishing top 15 in this race.

The top 20 is so dominated by these 5 teams, but you’ll see one Boyne City jersey in the mix.  Avery Stadt has been top 10 here her whole career.  She also finished 30^th in the state as a sophomore.  She’s coming off a track season that saw her place 4^th in the 800, her highest finish yet.

BOYS

Once again, the boys’ side contains much less drama, at least in the team race.

Charlevoix is another team that excels via its pack.  Their top 5 should all be within 20-30 seconds each race.  They have potential, 3 of their top 5, last fall was their first season of high school XC.  They also have kids who have improved, Blaise Snabes has dropped 30+ seconds each year and Evan Beane improved from 18:12 to 17:30 last year.

Traverse City St. Francis is another top 10 team up here.  They’re led by Thomas Richards, who had a sensational freshman year, finishing 4^th in the region and 10^th at Northern Michigan.  Darkhorse candidate for stepping up is Jacob Heeringa, who dropped a 5:00 1600 (and a few other 5:0x to prove no fluke).  He ran 18:57 last year, expect him to drop a minute at least if (and always a big if) he puts the summer training in.

Harbor Springs unfortunately loses Jeremy Kloss and his valuable contributions to the program, but it seems they won’t take too much of a hit.  Austin Smar finished second here last year, 13^th at Northern Michigan, and broke 17 for the first time.  They are a favorite for the 3^rd spot because, a familiar tale, of their 5^th/6^th runners.  Luke Shehigan is the one to watch, he’s a sophomore who spent considerable time in the 18’s and managed to run 11:00 in track.

It’s extremely tight at the top, so a chart is necessary.  It can go so many ways, so here’s a listing of times and common races between these guys.

Name	Thomas Richards	Austin Smar	Xander Civinskas	Tyler Guggemos	Blaise Snabes	Ben Lentz	Tyler Mcclure
East Jordan		5th		26th	13th	3rd	16th
Mud Run		4th		29th	8th	10th	16th
HotH		5th	4th				9th
Hot Dog			2nd			3rd	6th
BlueJay	15th		8th		12th	4th
LMC	3rd	2nd		8th	5th
NMC	10th	13th	31st	29th			35th
Regionals	4th	2nd	6th	5th	3rd	7th	11th
States	114th	48th	51st	72nd	64th	82nd	109th
800	2:04	2:03	2:05	2:18		2:15	2:05
1600	4:48	4:37	4:37	4:53			4:34
3200	11:08	10:12	10:22	10:30			10:24

 

GIRLS

Wow, this is a tough spot to be in on the girls’ side.  5 teams in the top 25, 6 in the top 27, and New Boston Huron is right there as well.  There will be some very good, deserving teams staying at home in November.

Dearborn Divine Child graduated luminaries such as Kaitlin Murray and Audrey Renaud, luckily they’re rife with young talent ready to carry on their tradition.  Kudos to Mif for really giving this program a jolt. Coming off successful track seasons are Erin Hegarty, Brooke Aho, and Haley Aho.  They were all close or below 12:00 in the 3200.

Tecumseh brings in some middle school talent that will bolster their program.  They had 3 8^th graders, Chesney Wilke, Kelsey Knape, and Kaylee Pesta under 13:00 at one point or another last fall.  Kelsey’s older sister, Kaitlin Knape, set some huge PRs last fall en route to a 37^th place finish at States.

It could go many ways from there.  I have Chelsea and Grosse Ile very close to one another.  They’ll likely go about it in different scenarios.  Chelsea has the pack, and could put 5, maybe 7, in front of Grosse Ile’s 4^th girl.  Two runners from each team that could give some optimism heading into this heated battle are Chelsea’s Natalie Davies, who dropped a 12:07 3200m after a cross season where she nearly broke 21 and Grosse Ile’s incoming freshman, Avery Brooks.

Unfortunately, Madison Price’s season was cut short last year.  She rebounded with some nice times on the track, running 5:19/11:57.

Seanna Schmidt has been All-State her past three years.  She’s been top 10 at this region, but never a winner.  She’s the best in this field, will be excited to see if she gets to wear that crown this fall.

BOYS

I’m not seeing much drama on the boys’ race.  Chelsea has great depth, Dearborn Divine Child has the Hancocks and some solid runners to back them up, and Adrian should be able to put their top 5 under 18:30 on this traditionally slow (probably the toughest flat course in the state) course.  Fun fact, I was a part of creating this course way back in 2008.  Completely forgot about that day prior to writing this.

Will Scott has made tremendous leaps each season for Chelsea.  Completely unexpected top-15 finish at States last year, followed by a track season that saw him go 9:42.  Expect him to be a sub-16 candidate if he continues to put in the work.  Nearly all of their projected top 7 has steadily progressed, but a special shout out goes to Erik Reiber, who was able to drop nearly 2 minutes last season.  He followed that up by running 4:45 this spring.

If Divine Child is going to move into the top 10, it will come on the backs of their 3^rd-7^th runners.  Adam Polakowski could be slated for growth, running 10:22 early this spring.  Another one to watch is Peter Ciarelli, who saved his best race for last, running 17:48 at States.  He’s bound to improve given last year was his first racing on the grass.

Adrian hasn’t sent an individual since 2016 and hasn’t sent their team since 2010.  Incoming freshman Aiden Smith is a huge factor in why they may break those streaks.  He broke 11:00 in both XC and track, and was also able to run 4:56 on the track.  Riley Malarney dropped some considerable time, his 4:43 indicative of an athlete capable of being top-10 here.

Always have liked seeing kids succeed from schools you wouldn’t expect.  D’Anthony Shaw was well into the 17’s many times last season, then followed it up with 4:44/10:21 in track.

A sleeping giant of a school is New Boston Huron.  They have dirt roads all around, Willow right across the street, and the Downriver population is slowly settling toward that area.  They’re probably a few years away.  Ayden Roupe and Drew Bean are two candidates to make it to Brooklyn.  They both broke 5:00 in track and 18:00 in XC.