Regional Previews – Page 33 – Michigan XC Speed Ratings

An Early Look: Region 10

June 24, 2019June 24, 2019 mixcspeedratings

GIRLS

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Emma Squires and Kendall Schopieray should mutually benefit from one another. I’ve got them rated a second apart. Last season saw Squires win 3 of the 4 matchups, but Schopieray bested her at States. Track seasons were nearly identical, with both running 11:02. Projecting for XC this year, I have the 9^th to 10^th grade transition improving at a faster rate than the 10^th to 11^th grade, so that may be why the numbers have Schopieray slightly ahead.

Both schools have solid programs and culture, and should easily make it another weekend. Petoskey started last season off strong with an incredible performance at the Charlevoix Mud Run. The course must have run fast comparative to previous years, as I doubted its validity. The team backed up their performance with a 3^rd place finish at States. The Northwomen return their entire top 7 and 9 of their top 10. Their top 5 all set PRs in the longer distance events this spring, Caroline Farley, Ahna Vanderwall, Noel Vanderwall, and Sarah Liederbach all in that 12-minute range for the 3200m.

Susie Huckle from Cadillac ran a MARATHON over at Bayshore (3:30, I believe). That base will set her up for fall. Chloie Musta is a girl slated for a huge improvement. Her 2:18 800 gave her a 9^th place finish at States, and it was a 22 second drop from last season. She also ran a 5:47 on April 18^th, but one would believe that would be closer to 5:15 at least if run later in the season. Her XC best is 20:22, and if she continues on that trajectory, 20 minutes will be a mere afterthought.

Sparta’s success here will likely derive from their 2^nd-4^th runners and being able to potentially put their 6^th in front of Fremont, Whitehall, and Ludington’s 5^th. Samantha Huizen let loose some PRs in track, going from 6:09 > 5:45 and 13:18 > 12:25. That may put her closer to the top 15.

Hanna Brock ran mostly 800’s in track and she ended up running 2:27, a nearly 10 second improvement from last year. How that carries over to XC is anyone’s guess, but it sure gives some positive momentum.

Cambrie Smith made some huge leaps last year, breaking 20 for the first time and following that up with a 11:52 in track.

I hope Ruby Strahan can recapture her form from the 2017 season, where she ran 18:40 and then finished 23^rd at States. Her track times suggest that may happen, highlighted by an 11:55 ran in April.

BOYS

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Sparta is ranked as a top 10 team, but you wouldn’t know it by these projections. Fremont is just that good. Nathan Walker has already been profiled. The incredible part of their team is the lack of seniors, a sight rarely seen. Ben Paige has been in the 16’s his first two years, Conor Somers went 4:40/9:56/16:10 as a freshman. Even a guy like Joshua Zerfas, who’s likely their 5^th runner, has been in the 16’s in 9^th/10^th grade.

Sparta benefits from that good ol’ pack running. Projections show around a 30 second gap between their first and fifth runners. Hayden Cook and Chase Wilson are the stars of the group, both running into the 16:40s, but narrowly missing qualifying for States. A 10:16 3200m in track leads me to believe Chase Hubert might be in line for an improvement, in this region, that could be top 12.

Matthew Hardesty and Ethan Fuller will be key factors if Big Rapids advances into November. Their performances rate higher than other 4/5 runners in the teams below them. Ryan Ososki is their freshman sensation, anytime you break 17 as a freshman, you’re in line to do some things later in your career.

Regional Previews

An Early Look: Region 27

June 22, 2019June 27, 2019 mixcspeedratings

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I’m skipping all around here, trying to roll through each division at an equal rate. Now that the computer situation is settled, expect these at least every weekday morning, undecided if I want to post on a weekend.

GIRLS

Blissfield is about one of the younger teams you’re going to find. Emily Bella, Katie Fischer, Angie Hoover, Sarah Brewer, and Haley Brusseau all head an outstanding freshman class. These girls won 5 of the 7 middle school meets that are listed.

Dundee will also benefit from some incoming freshman. Briget Waterstradt and Sydney Curtis both were able to break 14 during last school year. They probably have a good shot of putting 4 in the top 20, which is incredible because they may not even have a top 10 athlete. Harley Hughson is another girl that’s shown some improvement and hopefully will continue to do so, she ran 22:46 as a freshman and 21:43 as a sophomore. She’s run at MIS the past two years, that experience will likely be valuable.

Ann Arbor Greenhills vs. Clinton could be a case where you’re looking at the benefit of a good 6^th runner. Clinton has some fast girls up front, Alissa King who was 3^rd at 2018’s regionals and sub-13 in track, and the ever-improving Makayla Fletcher. Greenhills 5^th-7^th runners may be able to bust into Clinton’s top 5. A good candidate for that is Sonya Zacharek, who as a freshman was able to run 22:48.

Mary Bradshaw is the defending regional champ here. She was unfortunately on the wrong side of All-State last year, though she was able to lower her PR by 10 seconds. She’s coming off a track season where she was able to run 12:14, which is a good omen for improvement.

Lily Green had one of the biggest drops you’re gonna see in 2018. Ran 24:18 as a sophomore, 21:16 at regionals (a 1:13 PR at that) to finish 13^th. In track, she dropped a 5:47 1600 which shows potential to continue to reduce time.

BOYS

It’s a relatively tight battle for the top spots on the boys side.

Clinton has a great shot of putting 4 in the top 20, an added security blanket. They’re young, their top 7 fastest times last year were all underclassmen, 6 of those 7 in 10^th grade or below. I have Gabe Nelson as their top guy. He was able to run 17:32 last year and then 10:38 in track. Matthew Urbanczyk could also be there, as he broke 5 in the 1600, which is much better than his 18:56 last fall.

Erie Mason loses a top runner in Carter Rose, but they’re bolstered by an incoming freshman in Jackson Ansel. Jackson was under 12:00 in XC/track, sub-19 at PROM. His brother, Jacob Ansel, was a young sensation last year, nearly breaking 17.

Ann Arbor Greenhills loses 4 of their top 7. For a D3 school, they have great numbers, at least 19 on the team in 2018. That’s more than some Division 1 schools, so credit to them for creating well-stocked culture. Nathan Koh spent much of his freshman year in the 21-23 minute range, finally broke 19 at the end of the year, and last fall was able to nearly break 18. He continued that in the spring, with a 5:05 in the 1600. It’s that kind of progress that keeps you relevant as a program.

Owen Schassberger’s track season will give Ida hope in cracking the top 3. Following a cross season where he didn’t break 18, he ended up running a 10+ second PR in the 800 and a 20+ second PR in the 1600. If Brock Booth replicates his regional performance from last year, that gives them even more hope.

Cole Cousino might be cut from the same line of Zach White and Colin Kane. He was on the cusp of breaking 18 as a freshman.

Regional Previews

An Early Look: Region 36

June 19, 2019June 27, 2019 mixcspeedratings

GIRLS

Allen Park Cabrini (where a young Matt was confirmed and dominated the Dad’s Club softball league) moves down from Division 3 to Division 4. I’m sad to see enrollment continues to drop, but this is good for their XC prospects. They qualified for States last year, finishing 23^rd. The move down, along with returning 4 of their top 5 puts them in good position to return. They’re headed by Lily Heath, who broke 21:00 as a freshman. She continued that with a fine track season, going 5:43/12:54. Watch out for both Angel and Ania Ghazzawi. They both showed some 800m ability in track.

Plymouth Christian Academy finished 11^th at Division 4 States last year and return 3 of their top 5. Emily Cameron narrowly missed an All-State selection by 5 seconds. She spent much of her season in the 20’s and broke 20 once. Both Emily and Nicole Reinhart were in the 13’s in the 3200m this spring, extrapolated to XC, they should see some improvement.

Clarkston Everest Collegiate returns of all of their top 5 and 6 of their top 7 from a team that finished 25^th last year. Avery Hergott and Theresa Waller are two that would have qualified individually even if Everest didn’t make it. Erin Booms is a freshman who had some 800m success and should be due for improvement.

Ellie Kendell is easily the class of the region. She’s profiled here and will likely defend her regional crown from last year.

I’m assuming that Emmakate Zanoli, who ran for Oakland Christian MS last year, will run for Auburn Hills Oakland Christian this year. She ran 13:27 at the Hansons Invite last year.

Katherine Mutschler finished 16^th last year and I have her projected at 16^th this year. While a worthy position, there are reasons for optimism, as she ran a 2:43 800m this spring.

BOYS

Ethan Rice and Rochester Hills Lutheran Northwest are both projected to finish first here. Rice, son of Oakland’s coach, finished 3^rd here last year and 1^st in 2017. He had a solid track season in line with previous years. Two kids that dropped some time in track are Max Drummelsmith and Austin West. Both nearly broke 5:00 in the 1600m. I have RHLNW ranked #18 in Division 4.

Auburn Hills Oakland Christian qualified both Timothy Dupree and Luke Messing last year. I’d watch out for Ethan McFarland, who dropped a 5:41 mile this spring. Certainly a time not in line with his 20:45 best from XC. I wouldn’t be shocked if he sneaks into the top 20 here.

Lutheran Westland finished 14^th in Division 4 last year. They’re losing their top 3 from last year. While they may not have a front runner, they have depth and are returning a full squad. Logan Betke is a candidate to move up into their top spot, as he dropped 75 seconds from his 3200m PR.

Plymouth Christian Academy is a mainstay in the Division 4 scene. They have three top runners, but only 4 returners. I’m sure they’ll reload, but as of now, I can’t project them making it to Brooklyn. However, I did look into scoring 4 runners deep:

If they can find a fifth runner, they’ll be in the mix.

Both Dylan Ortiz and Cian Dotson could be close with Rice. Dotson, to me, looks like an untapped talent. Only shows results from two XC races last year and went 2:08 in the 800m this spring. I know 800m has little comparison to XC, nevertheless, it seems as if Dotson is young in the sport.

I’ve helped William Hoover and family at the store and he appears to be a runner looking to improve. He did drop his PR by over a minute last year and went 2:05 a few months ago.