My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!
The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.
An explanation from previous years that still holds true:
Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
Tanner Time
Tanner Rating
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev.
15:30
210
15:45
205
16:00
200
16:15
195
16:30
190
200
7.91
MIXCSR Time
MIXCSR Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev.
16:09
197
16:12
196
16:15
195
16:18
194
16:21
193
195
1.58
Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
Race
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev
Tanner Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev
MIXCSR Rating
1
200
7.9
202.1
195
1.6
195.6
2
200
7.9
196.2
195
1.6
194.1
3
200
7.9
190.0
195
1.6
199.2
4
200
7.9
193.4
195
1.6
192.5
5
200
7.9
206.8
195
1.6
195.7
6
200
7.9
201.8
195
1.6
196.1
7
200
7.9
171.6
195
1.6
194.9
8
200
7.9
189.2
195
1.6
195.9
9
200
7.9
205.5
195
1.6
197.0
10
200
7.9
203.8
195
1.6
192.6
11
200
7.9
192.3
195
1.6
196.5
12
200
7.9
196.9
195
1.6
196.4
13
200
7.9
198.5
195
1.6
195.6
14
200
7.9
203.2
195
1.6
194.1
15
200
7.9
193.9
195
1.6
192.6
16
200
7.9
199.3
195
1.6
193.2
17
200
7.9
208.7
195
1.6
194.2
18
200
7.9
213.7
195
1.6
194.6
19
200
7.9
212.6
195
1.6
197.1
20
200
7.9
206.3
195
1.6
193.9
I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
At the regional level, the projections were pretty darn accurate. I gave qualifying odds for the top-3 spots and ended up thinking I’d be accurate on 198 of the teams, the final total ended up being 197. The State level was a different story, where a few wholly unexpected teams hit the podium.
With that in mind, these simulations are a bit different than last year. Last year’s sample filtered out a runner’s lesser performances, which was fine in the regional setting, but didn’t account for the otherworldly MIS efforts that the Saline/Saugatuck boys had. In an attempt to capture more of the variant State Final performances, the samples for 2025 contain all of the invites and championship meets, hopefully giving more of an idea of how one performs when going to the well.
I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race over the past 4 weeks. This will attempt to account for injuries.
Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.
Both of the individual races and most of the potential qualifying look to be set in stone. Traditional winner Traverse City St. Francis is in there in both genders, Charlevoix and their devious Hunter Eaton are elite within D3, Harbor Springs hasn’t blinked when moving down a division, Coach King has been a shot in the arm for the Elk Rapids frontrunners. But there’s one spot with a bit of intrigue. Who may be the other girls team to advance?
When there’s a team with 65%+ chance of qualifying, then many with lower odds, that can often mean that the favorite is consistent, then the others either have a single great team effort, or athletes individually finding great efforts on separate occasions. Boyne City has been the most consistent team of the bunch, beating Kalkaska in their home invite, the Northern Shores Championship, and in a regional preview here (also beating Grayling). Although you see three wins over Kalkaska, that one here on the regional course came down to the sixth runner. Two of the Blazers trailed the nearest competitor by less than two seconds, so it’s not as if Kalkaska can’t pull ahead of BC.
Roscommon has shown that they have the goods, evidenced by races at Northern Michigan and Bluejay. In my mind, it’s an added bonus and assurance when a team displays its best efforts in meets with great significance. The Bucks were able to place 6th at Northern Michigan, although they did score below Elk Rapids.
Maybe it’s Standish Sterling, a team that’s had personal bests from all five of their girls at each of their last two meets, Freeland and the JPC Final. Or Grayling, whose depth has shown rapid growth in the past few weeks.
Teams
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Traverse City St. Francis
55
1.1
94
95+
2
Harbor Springs
87
2.0
6
95+
3
Boyne City
130
3.6
66
4
Standish-Sterling
146
5.5
13
5
Roscommon
148
5.7
8
6
Kalkaska
152
6.3
5
7
Elk Rapids
153
6.5
8
Charlevoix
157
7.1
9
Grayling
165
7.5
5
10
Cheboygan
187
9.7
11
Tawas
326
11.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Charlevoix
27
1.0
95+
95+
2
Traverse City St. Francis
97
2.2
95+
3
Harbor Springs
114
2.9
95+
4
Roscommon
148
4.5
5
Grayling
157
5.1
6
Boyne City
174
6.6
7
Kalkaska
185
7.7
8
Fairview
188
7.9
9
Standish-Sterling
195
8.6
10
Mancelona
196
8.6
11
Cheboygan
233
11.0
12
Oscoda
314
12.0
13
Tawas
393
13.0
Individuals
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Brynne Schulte
Elk Rapids
1.3
2
12
Anna Pray
Elk Rapids
2.4
3
11
Nico Triebold
Grayling
5.4
4
11
Molly Kate Hollandsworth
Traverse City St. Francis
5.8
5
10
Emma Kerr
Traverse City St. Francis
6.0
6
10
Aaliyah Hillier
Kalkaska
6.5
7
9
Alaina Civinskas
Roscommon
7.0
8
12
Maryrose Halberg
Charlevoix
9.3
9
11
Stefi Reskevics
Harbor Springs
10.9
10
10
Gabi Rempe
Harbor Springs
12.0
11
11
Emily Dunphy
Traverse City St. Francis
14.0
12
10
Hailee Bertels
Boyne City
14.9
13
9
Ruby Rhein
Traverse City St. Francis
17.4
14
12
Delaney Little
Boyne City
18.1
15
12
Fran Warren
Harbor Springs
18.1
16
11
Laura Janisse
Roscommon
18.2
17
11
Addy Wiers
Charlevoix
19.3
18
9
Isabella Wegener
Kalkaska
20.3
19
11
Stella Houdek
Traverse City St. Francis
20.4
20
12
Christina Pake
Standish-Sterling
21.0
21
11
Briahna Campbell
Cheboygan
22.4
22
11
Cloee Rupp
Cheboygan
22.9
23
10
Sophia Balistreri
Harbor Springs
23.3
24
11
Davylynn Christie
Standish-Sterling
24.1
25
12
Laura Spyker
Standish-Sterling
24.6
26
10
Betty Cordner
Traverse City St. Francis
24.7
27
12
Rachel Dhaseleer
Charlevoix
25.8
28
12
Lizzie Bassett
Harbor Springs
26.5
29
9
Elin Jager
Traverse City St. Francis
27.3
30
9
Allison Kujawski
Boyne City
29.4
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Hunter Eaton
Charlevoix
1.2
2
11
Ryder Hopkins
Charlevoix
2.5
3
12
Matthew Solomon
Charlevoix
3.1
4
12
Qwynn Darnell
Elk Rapids
4.0
5
11
Isaac Dionne
Boyne City
5.3
6
11
Evan Civinskas
Roscommon
6.8
7
10
Grant Corlew
Harbor Springs
7.2
8
11
Carter Toensfeldt
Fairview
9.5
9
11
Thomas Janisse
Roscommon
11.9
10
11
Maxwell Drenth
Charlevoix
12.0
11
10
Aurie Selph
Charlevoix
13.2
12
10
Liam Mahaffy
Grayling
14.4
13
11
William Ready
Traverse City St. Francis
15.7
14
9
Louis Ready
Traverse City St. Francis
16.6
15
12
Coltrane Paryani
Kalkaska
17.1
16
11
Eli Williamson
Standish-Sterling
17.9
17
10
Jacob Muladore
Charlevoix
18.4
18
9
Landon Baas
Harbor Springs
19.0
19
11
Finn Parish
Boyne City
19.4
20
12
Nicholas Trader
Fairview
19.6
21
12
Henry Kruzel
Harbor Springs
20.9
22
10
Harper Mullet
Traverse City St. Francis
21.2
23
11
Nate Gorman
Traverse City St. Francis
21.6
24
9
Liam Piotrowski
Oscoda
22.2
25
10
Owen McGlone
Kalkaska
23.9
26
9
Mathieu Moore
Grayling
29.5
27
10
Charlie Denherder
Elk Rapids
29.5
28
12
Andrew Kiefer
Cheboygan
31.0
29
10
Hayden Mohrhardt
Traverse City St. Francis
31.6
30
10
Elliot Smith
Mancelona
31.8
REGION 20
Any Big Battles?
The preseason projections thought there’d be a struggle between the two squads, but they misfired on the gender. Twice, Benzie Central and Hart have raced in the same division, once in the same meet. When placed on the line together, the Pirates have come out ahead, their biggest gaps often coming later in the scoring. At Bluejay, the Huskies competed earlier in the day and the Pirates late, Benzie Central averaging much faster times in the cooler morning air. But I’m not sure that the heat completely made up for the gap in the two performances. Of course, common invites aren’t the only factor here. Benzie has the home course advantage and recent evidence that they can roll there, winning the final NWC Jamboree with four of their varsity pack racing to personal bests.
Teams
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Benzie Central
68
1.5
59
95+
2
Hart
72
1.8
36
95+
3
McBain
91
2.9
5
93
4
Reed City
116
4.0
6
5
Manistee
141
5.1
6
Leroy Pine River
154
6.1
7
Mason County Central
164
6.9
8
Lake City
182
7.8
9
Manton
225
9.2
10
Shelby
239
9.9
11
Morley-Stanwood
304
11.0
12
White Cloud
364
12.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Benzie Central
50
1.0
95+
95+
2
Hart
76
2.3
95+
3
Lake City
82
2.7
95+
4
Reed City
110
4.1
5
5
Manton
133
4.9
6
McBain
195
6.4
7
Leroy Pine River
202
6.8
8
Harrison
230
8.5
9
Manistee
235
9.0
10
Kingsley
243
9.5
11
Mason County Central
273
11.0
12
Shelby
293
11.9
Individuals
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
10
Avery Kelly
Benzie Central
1.9
2
10
Caelyn Torry
McBain
2.7
3
10
Madisyn Wanstead
Leroy Pine River
4.6
4
11
Natalie Rosema
Hart
5.1
5
11
Betsy Gooden
Manton
5.5
6
11
Marlowe Walcott
Reed City
5.6
7
10
Avalynne Allee
Leroy Pine River
8.3
8
11
Hallee Hervey
Reed City
10.7
9
10
Maggie McClellan
Benzie Central
11.0
10
10
Faith Helsel
Lake City
12.1
11
9
Emma Miller
Hart
12.2
12
10
Alaina Schaner
Hart
12.2
13
10
Ingrid Molins Rallo
Benzie Central
12.5
14
10
Hattie Driver
Manistee
15.6
15
9
Kristina Bott
Benzie Central
15.6
16
9
Lily Sisson
Leroy Pine River
16.4
17
11
Maylan Sanders
Mason County Central
17.4
18
9
Mya Bronkema
McBain
18.1
19
12
Georgia Haag
Manistee
18.2
20
10
Bryn Riley
Hart
19.2
21
10
Harlow Hughes
Lake City
20.2
22
11
Madelyn Reinink
McBain
21.3
23
12
Nevaeh Battice
Mason County Central
22.3
24
10
Luisa Vander Zwaag
Hart
23.1
25
11
Kayden Hinton
McBain
26.3
26
11
Noel Parker
Shelby
26.7
27
9
Grace Wilson
McBain
27.3
28
10
Madilynn Fancett
McBain
29.5
29
12
Makayla Watkins
Reed City
30.4
30
12
Sahara Davis
Reed City
30.4
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
10
Eli VanPoortfliet
Benzie Central
1.7
2
12
Caiden Helsel
Lake City
3.6
3
12
Jackson Schaub
Benzie Central
5.1
4
10
Tristan Hernandez
Kingsley
6.2
5
12
Connor Helsel
Lake City
6.6
6
10
Edison Huizinga
Manistee
6.6
7
12
Paul Saladin
Reed City
7.5
8
11
Logan Young
Harrison
7.6
9
10
Timothy Wolff
Hart
13.3
10
12
Kyle Vincent
Benzie Central
13.5
11
11
Aiden Schaner
Hart
14.0
12
10
Azrael Horvath
Manton
14.7
13
11
Brayden Spears
Lake City
16.1
14
11
Cage Edingfield
Benzie Central
16.2
15
9
Liam Plainte
Houghton Lake
16.3
16
12
Robert Dykhouse
Manton
16.7
17
12
Wyatt Vanpoortfliet
Benzie Central
17.0
18
10
Silas Ackley
Hart
18.4
19
11
Mason Opalewski
Hart
19.5
20
11
Braydn Winkel
McBain
20.4
21
12
Ethan Baker
Leroy Pine River
20.7
22
10
Trevor VanderKodde
Hart
20.7
23
10
Grant Ackley
Hart
21.3
24
10
Abraham Kiaunis
Reed City
21.5
25
10
Walter Armstrong
Benzie Central
24.7
26
10
Tanner Dozier
Reed City
24.8
27
11
Owen VanderVlucht
Hart
26.2
28
11
Carter Root
Lake City
28.2
29
12
Aaron Allen
Reed City
28.7
30
11
Jackson Poll
Mason County Central
30.4
REGION 21
Any Big Battles?
Gonna be a fun one for the boys in all facets. For the win, two teams that have hovered around the top-ten rankings – Holland Black River and The Potter’s House. Potentially moving on for another week of bonding and racing as a team – NorthPointe Christian, Western Michigan Christian, and Covenant Christian.
There have been plenty of matchups between the prior two and latter three. Four times have HBR and TPH toed the line together, the Pumas holding a 3-1 edge. Throughout the first three races, the Pumas held the edge in a multitude of ways, but especially on depth late in the scoring. At Portage, Black River was able to pull ahead, although Potter’s House was missing one of their prime scorers.
Of the latter three, Covenant Christian has been the most consistent. The Charger top-five has been able to average the equivalent of a sub-18 in five meets. Western Michigan Christian has occasionally shown the juice, four of the Warrior boys gravitating under 18:00 at Portage, a meet where they were ahead of all but Black River. A week earlier at Allendale, NorthPointe had flipped the above, besting WMC and trailing HBR by only 8 points. Many arguments for state inclusion, but only three spots.
Teams
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
66
1.9
45
95+
2
Grandville Calvin Christian
68
2.0
30
95+
3
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
72
2.4
23
85
4
Kent City
91
3.7
20
5
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
197
6.0
6
Belding
203
6.5
7
Holland Black River
212
7.4
8
Lakeview
215
7.7
9
Newaygo
225
8.7
10
Saranac
227
8.7
11
The Potter’s House
293
11.3
12
North Muskegon
311
12.3
13
Delton-Kellogg
317
12.6
14
Montague
355
14.1
15
Ravenna
371
14.8
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
The Potter’s House
75
1.4
68
95+
2
Holland Black River
85
2.0
25
95+
3
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
111
3.9
45
4
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
114
4.0
28
5
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
114
4.1
27
6
Montague
139
5.6
7
Delton-Kellogg
215
7.6
8
Saranac
223
8.1
9
Kent City
239
8.8
10
Lakeview
261
10.0
11
Belding
279
10.7
12
Newaygo
304
11.8
13
Grandville Calvin Christian
332
13.0
14
Ravenna
365
14.0
15
North Muskegon
438
15.0
Individuals
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
10
Elliana Max
Kent City
1.0
2
11
Kamryn Salladay
Lakeview
2.5
3
12
Aletta Scholten
Grandville Calvin Christian
4.7
4
9
Kylie Zwiep
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
5.0
5
11
Shelby Kuiper
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
5.3
6
10
Shelby Zimmer
Kent City
5.5
7
11
Leah Sneller
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
9.5
8
11
Faith Jenkins
Grandville Calvin Christian
10.0
9
11
Lydia Minderhoud
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
10.2
10
11
Laura Castrejon
Newaygo
11.4
11
10
Lynnae Meengs
Grandville Calvin Christian
11.4
12
10
Ellason Foster
Newaygo
13.8
13
10
Danika Lopez
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
15.5
14
9
Leah Elzinga
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
16.3
15
9
Kate DeVries
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
16.5
16
9
Joselyn Vogel
Kent City
16.7
17
9
Jenny Woznick
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
16.9
18
10
Esther Cahill
Saranac
18.0
19
12
Maria Campbell
Grandville Calvin Christian
20.1
20
12
Dylan Bosma
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
21.0
21
10
Abbie Koole
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
21.0
22
10
Joellah Bouwman
Grandville Calvin Christian
21.5
23
9
Eliana Zwiep
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
22.6
24
12
Jennifer Popp
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
22.7
25
11
Anna DeVries
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
24.0
26
9
Sonya Minderhoud
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
24.6
27
11
Rochelle Liu
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
26.4
28
9
Kyla Zuidema
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
27.7
29
11
Jenna Terpstra
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
29.4
30
10
Naomi Telman
Holland Black River
29.8
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Jonas Ballard
Holland Black River
1.7
2
12
Edward Mugisha
The Potter’s House
1.8
3
12
Jeryn Frisbie
Belding
3.8
4
11
Levi Schimmel
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
8.4
5
11
David Castrejon
Newaygo
9.7
6
11
Cooper Tiffany
Lakeview
9.8
7
11
Owen Sytsema
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
10.4
8
10
Nolan Kessler
Montague
10.6
9
12
Isaac Johnson
Holland Black River
11.2
10
11
Easton McCloy
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
11.4
11
11
Sebastian Zylstra
Holland Black River
12.5
12
11
Gibson Smith
Montague
14.6
13
11
Josiah Scholma
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
14.9
14
12
Isaac Norcross
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
15.4
15
11
Micah Kuiper
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
15.5
16
12
Isaac Struck-VanderHaak
The Potter’s House
15.5
17
11
Caleb Swiney
The Potter’s House
16.0
18
10
Avery Carlson
Holland Black River
17.8
19
9
Luke Worley
Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
19.4
20
12
Reuben Anderson
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
19.5
21
11
Eli Morse
Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
19.7
22
11
Mattias Tuls
The Potter’s House
21.5
23
11
Landon Madden
Delton-Kellogg
23.1
24
11
Evan Buteyn
Grandville Calvin Christian
23.8
25
12
Isaac Westra
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
26.0
26
10
Logan Sicilia
The Potter’s House
27.1
27
11
Nick Leonhard
The Potter’s House
27.4
28
11
Landon Kuperus
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
29.9
29
12
Christopher Delaney
The Potter’s House
32.2
30
12
Kaden Mingerink
Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
33.3
REGION 22
Any Big Battles?
His junior year has almost identically matched the same pattern as his sophomore season, just a minute faster. John Keser hung out in the 18’s for much of the ’24 season, then made a dramatic shift late. He hit a 17:09 at Portage, nearly matched the time with his regional effort, then broke into the 16’s at State. This fall, he began in the mid-17’s, made a breakthrough at Berrien County, then has extended into the very low-16’s. He’s got the top time (and rating), but is closely followed by two Saugatuck boys – Marcus Silva and Grant Rehkopf. Speaking of trends and looking to the past, both of the Trailblazers ran their best to close the previous season and are trending that way again. Regardless of what goes down individually, I know these three will have another gear for MIS.
Teams
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Saugatuck
28
1.0
95+
95+
2
Bridgman
79
2.1
95+
3
Watervliet
99
3.0
91
4
Fennville
136
4.8
5
5
Buchanan
144
5.2
6
Constantine
146
5.3
7
Niles Brandywine
180
7.2
8
Hartford
189
7.6
9
Schoolcraft
234
9.2
10
Bloomingdale
264
10.2
11
Kalamazoo Christian
274
10.5
12
Bangor
344
12.3
13
Coloma
363
13.1
14
Comstock
384
13.7
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Saugatuck
32
1.0
95+
95+
2
Buchanan
57
2.1
95+
3
Schoolcraft
78
2.9
95+
4
Bangor
153
4.5
5
Hartford
155
4.6
6
Watervliet
190
6.6
7
Constantine
200
7.2
8
Fennville
203
7.3
9
Bridgman
235
9.1
10
Parchment
253
10.1
11
Coloma
272
11.3
12
Bloomingdale
276
11.3
13
Kalamazoo Christian
338
13.0
Individuals
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Isabelle Sliter
Fennville
1.5
2
12
Alina Martinson
Saugatuck
2.6
3
9
Tala Carlin
Buchanan
3.6
4
11
Kamryn Sixberry
Saugatuck
3.8
5
11
Lyvia Curtis
Saugatuck
4.5
6
9
Ellyse Heyser
Saugatuck
7.7
7
12
Kandin Shuler
Bridgman
8.1
8
9
Allison Burns
Constantine
8.6
9
12
Savannah VanDenBerg
Saugatuck
9.2
10
10
Alison Murray
Niles Brandywine
10.6
11
9
Daniella Romero
Watervliet
11.8
12
10
Anna Howell
Bridgman
12.1
13
9
Anna Davidhizar
Constantine
12.9
14
10
Kaylin Pinkowski
Bridgman
15.1
15
11
Juliana Morseau
Hartford
16.4
16
10
Miranda Lowell
Watervliet
16.8
17
9
Ryann Monroe
Saugatuck
17.6
18
10
Evangeline Brown
Bridgman
23.3
19
11
Stella Ullig
Bridgman
23.3
20
10
Payton Yeske
Watervliet
23.7
21
10
Katelyn Brown
Watervliet
24.8
22
12
Brianna Zwar
Watervliet
26.3
23
12
Alaina Nagel
Buchanan
26.3
24
11
Paytin Featherstone
Constantine
27.0
25
11
Abigail Mulder
Schoolcraft
27.8
26
12
Samantha Giles
Fennville
28.3
27
11
Anika Weurding
Lawton
28.5
28
10
Abigail Douglass
Bridgman
28.8
29
9
Laila Wogatzke
Niles Brandywine
34.3
30
10
MaKenzie McClintock
Kalamazoo Christian
35.1
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
John Keser
Buchanan
2.6
2
11
Grant Rehkopf
Saugatuck
2.8
3
11
Marcus Silva
Saugatuck
2.9
4
10
Jackson Bowman
Saugatuck
5.5
5
11
Sawyer Monroe
Saugatuck
6.0
6
9
Reese Devisser
Schoolcraft
7.7
7
12
Alessandro Avila
Constantine
8.0
8
12
Liam McBeth
Buchanan
8.3
9
9
Sam Casiano
Watervliet
8.7
10
12
Jack Sherwood
Buchanan
8.8
11
11
Xavier Pompey
Coloma
10.6
12
11
Aiden Mcdonald
Hartford
12.4
13
11
Colin Bauer
Schoolcraft
12.6
14
12
Sammy Gamboa
Saugatuck
15.9
15
12
Ace Drewyor
Schoolcraft
18.8
16
11
Collin Bauer
Schoolcraft
19.3
17
12
Jacob Kuntz
Buchanan
19.4
18
12
Eli Martin
Schoolcraft
19.8
19
10
Carter Brouwer
Bangor
21.2
20
11
Carson Pullins
Bangor
21.6
21
9
Carson Ernsberger
Bridgman
21.8
22
9
Tony Perez
Watervliet
21.9
23
12
Isaac Cruz
Saugatuck
22.3
24
10
Ashton Skinner
Saugatuck
22.8
25
10
Josiah Passig
Buchanan
25.5
26
9
Bentley Molitor
Buchanan
25.8
27
11
Alex Diaz
Hartford
26.6
28
11
Josaias Robles
Hartford
31.4
29
12
Aiden Woods
Comstock
31.7
30
12
Trap Abbott
Bangor
33.0
REGION 23
Any Big Battles?
Will Hulin vs. Caleb Blonde, or whomever wants to slide in there and steal a title. That could be Clint Couchman, who has shown he can handle tough conditions, such as his 16:28 at Spartan. Perhaps Chad Tyson, who has put together solid efforts in two of Michigan’s bigger invites (Bluejay and Portage). Maybe a Logan Youngman, who was ahead of Hulin at Sturgis and the others at Jackson.
Hulin has consistently pushed out the best races of the region. A year ago, the Centreville athlete crept his way into the 16’s by the end of the year. The improvement hasn’t stopped, as he’s been a steady figure in the low-16’s, just on the cusp of breaking into a new time zone. Blonde is the fastest returner from 2024’s region and the 2nd fastest returner in the entire division. He hasn’t quite matched the 15:44 from last fall’s State Finals, but the trend is pointing toward a new PR by season’s end, Caleb racing to three sub-16’s in a row.
Teams
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Jackson Lumen Christi
47
1.2
85
95+
2
Olivet
57
1.9
15
95+
3
Bronson
93
3.0
95+
4
Hanover-Horton
143
4.5
5
Jonesville
155
5.0
6
Napoleon
179
6.3
7
Onsted
188
6.9
8
Union City
203
7.8
9
Centreville
229
9.2
10
Sand Creek
232
9.4
11
Homer
268
10.9
12
Hillsdale
307
12.0
13
Quincy
359
13.1
14
Springport
392
13.9
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Jackson Lumen Christi
47
1.0
95+
95+
2
Hanover-Horton
83
2.4
95+
3
Jonesville
88
2.6
95+
4
Centreville
211
6.0
5
Quincy
213
6.3
6
Sand Creek
223
7.2
7
Onsted
225
7.7
8
Bronson
228
8.2
9
Napoleon
229
8.3
10
Union City
237
9.3
11
Hillsdale
240
9.8
12
Brooklyn Columbia Central
241
9.9
13
Homer
281
12.8
14
Olivet
293
13.6
15
Springport
404
15.1
16
Galesburg-Augusta
434
15.9
Individuals
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Samantha Schroeder
Jackson Lumen Christi
1.2
2
10
Tiya Feldpausch
Olivet
2.0
3
9
Lily Britton
Olivet
3.7
4
12
Ashlynn Harris
Bronson
4.2
5
12
Macy Fazekas
Jackson Lumen Christi
5.4
6
10
Maisey Toteff
Hanover-Horton
6.7
7
9
Avery Haynes
Brooklyn Columbia Central
7.5
8
12
Emily Peters
Olivet
9.3
9
11
Brynlee Swihart
Hanover-Horton
11.2
10
9
Madelynn Patterson
Olivet
11.6
11
9
Mila Scheele
Jackson Lumen Christi
13.3
12
11
Miriam Sanchez
Bronson
14.9
13
9
Ella Worthing
Jackson Lumen Christi
15.1
14
11
Alonna Goodsell
Bronson
15.9
15
11
Allison Gautsche
Union City
16.8
16
11
Helen Lefere
Jackson Lumen Christi
19.8
17
12
Sophie Patrick
Homer
19.9
18
10
Brynleigh Griffiths
Jonesville
20.4
19
12
Lillian Ambler
Homer
20.9
20
10
Sophia Trachsel
Jackson Lumen Christi
21.1
21
12
Raegan Brosamer
Onsted
21.3
22
10
Madisyn Lindemann
Napoleon
23.8
23
11
Keira Knight
Jonesville
23.9
24
11
Joleane Gulledge
Jonesville
24.2
25
11
Rachel Devrie
Jackson Lumen Christi
25.3
26
12
Bryn Biela
Hanover-Horton
27.7
27
9
Piper Grigsby
Bronson
29.6
28
9
Emme Naylor
Napoleon
29.8
29
12
Emma Grulke
Onsted
30.0
30
10
Gabby Gaydosh
Brooklyn Columbia Central
33.6
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
10
Will Hulin
Centreville
2.3
2
11
Caleb Blonde
Jonesville
3.2
3
11
Logan Youngman
Hillsdale
3.5
4
11
Chad Tyson
Hanover-Horton
4.0
5
10
Clint Couchman
Brooklyn Columbia Central
4.9
6
12
Gibson Shore
Jackson Lumen Christi
6.1
7
11
Rocky Bolton
Jackson Lumen Christi
6.2
8
10
Soren Crosthwaite
Jackson Lumen Christi
8.8
9
12
John Edler
Homer
11.6
10
12
Ben Gautsche
Union City
12.1
11
12
Peter Soltis
Jackson Lumen Christi
12.7
12
11
Collin Fucile
Jonesville
12.8
13
11
Cooper Flick
Hanover-Horton
13.3
14
11
Avery Morrow
Jackson Lumen Christi
13.7
15
10
Ashton Potwin
Jonesville
14.6
16
12
Nicholas Fowler
Jonesville
16.5
17
11
Ethan Huff
Homer
16.6
18
10
Tyler Harris
Hanover-Horton
18.0
19
9
Bryce Youngman
Hillsdale
21.3
20
10
Chris Durfey
Onsted
21.3
21
11
Nicklas Holmes
Onsted
24.1
22
10
Jude Wentzloff
Jackson Lumen Christi
24.6
23
10
Hunter Walker
Quincy
25.9
24
11
Cullen Decker
Union City
26.3
25
10
Wyatt Hassenzahl
Hanover-Horton
27.2
26
10
Anderson Cook
Hanover-Horton
27.6
27
12
Andrew Norman
Napoleon
27.8
28
11
Silas Daniels
Sand Creek
28.2
29
11
Brayton Cosby
Bronson
31.2
30
12
Chayse Jensen
Quincy
33.2
REGION 24
Any Big Battles?
Not really! Region 24 appears to be very undramatic. If there are any heroics, I’ll be present to watch.
Teams
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Pewamo-Westphalia
28
1.0
95+
95+
2
Stanton Central Montcalm
90
2.4
95+
3
Bath
93
2.6
95+
4
Chesaning
131
4.3
5
Millington
139
4.8
6
Perry
167
6.6
7
Laingsburg
175
7.2
8
New Lothrop
175
7.2
9
Ovid-Elsie
196
8.8
10
Montrose
215
9.9
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Stanton Central Montcalm
44
1.0
95+
95+
2
Pewamo-Westphalia
73
2.1
95+
3
Montrose
91
3.0
95+
4
Chesaning
130
4.5
5
Otisville LakeVille
139
5.1
6
Laingsburg
153
6.1
7
Ovid-Elsie
157
6.5
8
Bath
186
7.9
9
Millington
225
9.3
10
New Lothrop
231
9.6
Individuals
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Alyssa Kramer
Pewamo-Westphalia
1.2
2
9
Calista George
Pewamo-Westphalia
2.2
3
12
Abigail Reis
Millington
3.2
4
12
Grace Coston
Stanton Central Montcalm
4.5
5
11
Jenna Keilen
Pewamo-Westphalia
5.7
6
12
Anna Poppema
Bath
6.2
7
12
Braelyn Bunting
Stanton Central Montcalm
9.0
8
11
Charlotte Simon
Pewamo-Westphalia
11.1
9
11
Delaney Smith
Pewamo-Westphalia
11.3
10
9
Sydney Knieper
New Lothrop
11.4
11
10
Ruby Gross
Chesaning
11.9
12
9
Katherine Schafer
Pewamo-Westphalia
12.0
13
11
Andrea Rolston
Stanton Central Montcalm
13.3
14
10
Courtney Lawhorne
Bath
14.9
15
12
Lilly Rooks
Pewamo-Westphalia
17.4
16
12
Clarissa Baese
Ovid-Elsie
17.9
17
9
Teagan Kuykendall
Bath
18.2
18
9
Claire Burrows
Millington
19.5
19
9
Olivia Roseberry
Perry
19.8
20
10
Takoda Holicki
Montrose
20.7
21
9
Brynn Burrows
Millington
21.2
22
12
Africa Beltran
Bath
21.5
23
10
Leah Theile
Chesaning
21.6
24
10
Ali Hunt
New Lothrop
25.5
25
10
KiKi Rusz
Laingsburg
25.6
26
10
Alonna Neumann
Chesaning
26.1
27
12
Isabella Nalewyko
Montrose
28.4
28
10
Alonna Schack
Chesaning
29.0
29
11
Claire Schmidtfranz
Perry
29.7
30
12
Hazel Burley
Laingsburg
30.0
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Gage Hoffman
Stanton Central Montcalm
1.0
2
12
Tyler Leach
Otisville LakeVille
2.7
3
10
Owen Poppema
Bath
3.1
4
11
John Kowatch
Pewamo-Westphalia
5.2
5
12
Noah Devereaux
Laingsburg
5.3
6
10
Wyatt Roberts
Otisville LakeVille
6.4
7
12
Kyler Fertig
Stanton Central Montcalm
6.9
8
12
Sylus Wilson
Stanton Central Montcalm
7.2
9
11
Charlie George
Pewamo-Westphalia
9.6
10
10
Eli Hobson
Montrose
10.0
11
11
Wyatt Werner
Pewamo-Westphalia
11.4
12
10
Johnny Coston
Stanton Central Montcalm
13.4
13
11
Jaxon Hemgesberg
Chesaning
14.5
14
12
Jaycob Hipps
Montrose
15.2
15
12
Ayden Hipps
Montrose
15.5
16
9
Mason Bollinger
Stanton Central Montcalm
17.4
17
11
Jobriel Octubre
Chesaning
19.1
18
12
Evan Rolston
Stanton Central Montcalm
19.7
19
10
Austin Hodges
Laingsburg
22.6
20
9
Will Baese
Ovid-Elsie
22.9
21
11
Nolan Mitchell
Pewamo-Westphalia
23.3
22
11
Tyler Rockafellow
Perry
24.0
23
10
Masen O’Neil
Millington
25.4
24
11
Wyatt Linson
Otisville LakeVille
25.5
25
10
Michael Allen
Montrose
26.3
26
12
Reed Schroeder
Pewamo-Westphalia
26.3
27
12
Cole Maier
Chesaning
26.5
28
11
Tyne Evans
Stanton Central Montcalm
27.8
29
9
Jeffery Delong
Montrose
29.8
30
11
Travis Wright
Ovid-Elsie
30.2
REGION 25
Any Big Battles?
This is one of those wild regions, both in geography and a wide range of teams that could advance. Latitudinally, Region 25 is unmatched, 56 miles tall x 140 miles wide. Competitively, it hangs right with the best as well. In the mix for a qualifier are a whopping five boys teams and six(!) girls teams. Within the six girls teams are:
The long trekking Remus Chippewa Hills. They’re the favorite, largely because of their upper three (Dory Simon, Quinn Hatfield, and Peyton Nellis) who should be quick enough to stay out of the fray in the middle.
Ithaca, who’s seemingly always missing a girl. But when combined, their top-six have season bests of 22-flat and faster.
Saginaw Valley Lutheran, who holds TVC wins over the team above and the best team performance of any team sans Chippewa Hills. At Saginaw County, the Chargers placed 3rd behind D2 standouts Freeland and Frankenmuth.
Midland Bullock Creek and Sanford-Meridian, who both had their best conference performance in the final JPC Jamboree. The Lancers outdueled the Mustangs by three points over at Shepherd.
Caro, coming off one of their better efforts of the year at Thumb Area. The Tigers are the queens of the Thumb, winning with three girls reaching under 21:00.
Both Bullock Creek and Caro have Wagener Park experience, with Bullock Creek taking a narrow win over the Tigers at last month’s Wagener Park Invite.
Teams
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Remus Chippewa Hills
78
1.3
75
95+
2
Midland Bullock Creek
94
2.5
13
87
3
Ithaca
111
4.2
5
40
4
Caro
112
4.3
29
5
Sanford-Meridian
118
4.8
19
6
Saginaw Valley Lutheran
122
5.1
22
7
Pigeon-Laker
135
6.0
8
St. Louis
194
8.2
9
Hemlock
229
9.5
10
Sandusky
238
10.1
11
Reese
242
10.3
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Ithaca
37
1.0
95+
95+
2
Midland Bullock Creek
93
2.7
83
3
Caro
96
2.9
76
4
Sanford-Meridian
112
4.3
13
5
Pigeon-Laker
112
4.1
28
6
Reese
151
6.0
7
Beaverton
201
6.9
8
Carrollton
274
8.9
9
Farwell
284
9.6
10
Remus Chippewa Hills
291
9.9
11
Cass City
299
10.6
12
St. Louis
318
11.9
13
Sandusky
339
13.5
14
Pinconning
349
14.2
15
Saginaw Valley Lutheran
354
14.5
16
Hemlock
362
15.0
Individuals
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Violet Tetil
Caro
1.1
2
10
Dory Simon
Remus Chippewa Hills
2.7
3
11
Makinna Foglesong
Ithaca
4.4
4
12
Mattie Gagne
Midland Bullock Creek
4.9
5
10
Khloe Lehnst
Ithaca
7.5
6
9
Jocelyn Tetil
Caro
8.0
7
12
Quinn Hatfield
Remus Chippewa Hills
8.5
8
10
Lindsey Cmeyla
Saginaw Valley Lutheran
8.9
9
10
Peyton Nellis
Remus Chippewa Hills
11.1
10
11
Emily Beethe
Saginaw Valley Lutheran
11.9
11
9
Sage Palmer
Sandusky
12.7
12
11
Mikenna Nagel
Sanford-Meridian
13.1
13
11
Ellie Beach
Sanford-Meridian
14.3
14
10
Sarah Nothstine
Midland Bullock Creek
14.4
15
11
Pyper Braun
Pigeon-Laker
14.6
16
10
Olivia Brown
Bad Axe
15.4
17
10
Averie Stefanovsky
Caro
15.7
18
12
Makenna Gwisdalla
Bad Axe
17.4
19
9
Lexi Kinder
St. Louis
18.5
20
12
Maria Campo-Cossio Calderon
Bad Axe
21.6
21
9
Rebekah Huber
Midland Bullock Creek
26.1
22
11
Lydia Faubert
Hemlock
26.6
23
12
Aubrey Zarnke
Pigeon-Laker
26.7
24
10
Amelia Dawe
Ithaca
27.0
25
10
Bethany Cmeyla
Saginaw Valley Lutheran
27.7
26
11
Adeline Ludwig
Midland Bullock Creek
29.3
27
9
Sara Guest
Midland Bullock Creek
30.3
28
9
Sophi Beach
Sanford-Meridian
30.8
29
11
Olivia Hooper
Pigeon-Laker
32.2
30
10
Charlee MacLaren
Ithaca
32.3
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Luke Herron
Caro
1.5
2
12
Landen Styka
Ithaca
3.0
3
12
Jayden Fox
Saginaw Valley Lutheran
4.6
4
11
Evan Olson
Pigeon-Laker
4.9
5
12
Jacob Mankey
Ithaca
4.9
6
11
Evan MacLaren
Ithaca
5.8
7
9
Asher Putman
Reese
7.4
8
11
Marshall Brandt
Midland Bullock Creek
7.9
9
10
Christopher Shemes
Ithaca
9.6
10
10
Remyngton Clish
Sanford-Meridian
10.7
11
12
Duane Davis
Midland Bullock Creek
12.9
12
12
Thad Whitmore
Ithaca
13.5
13
10
Brendan Plante
Midland Bullock Creek
16.8
14
12
Wesley Haines
Reese
17.4
15
12
James Schroder
Sanford-Meridian
17.6
16
11
Henry Haag
Pigeon-Laker
18.1
17
12
Gage Spencer
Beaverton
18.4
18
11
Mayson McIntosh
Caro
19.0
19
11
Dillon Spilker
Sanford-Meridian
19.1
20
9
Jacob Daisy
Caro
20.8
21
10
Luke Mulder
Midland Bullock Creek
20.9
22
9
Zeke Rickwalt
Caro
22.0
23
11
Sebastian Seifferlein
Sandusky
23.1
24
11
Xander Huckins
Reese
23.2
25
12
Logan Brawt
Sanford-Meridian
24.4
26
10
Kale Miklovic
Pigeon-Laker
26.0
27
9
Walter Haag
Pigeon-Laker
27.3
28
10
Xavier Teneyuque
Carrollton
28.0
29
9
Silas Finney
Beaverton
28.4
30
11
Grady Galbraith
Hemlock
29.4
REGION 26
Any Big Battles?
Listed here in the summer, fallen a bit by mid-season, now back in the picture are the Ann Arbor Greenhills girls. The Gryphons are coming off an excellent performance at Gabriel Richard, with the majority of their varsity girls attaining a PR. They’re in competition with Leslie, a typical qualifier out of this region. The Blackhawks feature Hailey Creisher, one of the better (if not the best) girls in D3. The benefit of a girl such as Creisher is that Leslie will only need to score four.
Five boys teams vying for three spots. Two, Blissfield and Erie Mason, seem to be a step above the rest of the field. The Hudson Booster Invite is typically a place where the best D3 teams in the area compete, the Eagles and Royals claiming the top-two spots. There was a 5-point difference, with Erie Mason taking the win, largely thanks to their depth through the back end of their scorers.
Anyhow, Grass Lake, Monroe St. Mary CC, and Adrian Madison are in contention for the other spot. SMCC has run the best of late, with four boys in the mid-18’s or under in their 4th place Huron League finish. Two common competitions exist between SMCC and the other two, the Falcons winning over Grass Lake at Portage and Madison at Huron. But much time has transpired since either of the two races. Madison was able to place in the upper half of the field at Lenawee County on the tough Gerber Hill course. Unable to compete for Grass Lake at Portage was Emmet Van Cleave, who busted out a sub-18 PR in his return at Hudson Mills.
My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!
The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.
An explanation from previous years that still holds true:
Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
Tanner Time
Tanner Rating
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev.
15:30
210
15:45
205
16:00
200
16:15
195
16:30
190
200
7.91
MIXCSR Time
MIXCSR Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev.
16:09
197
16:12
196
16:15
195
16:18
194
16:21
193
195
1.58
Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
Race
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev
Tanner Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev
MIXCSR Rating
1
200
7.9
202.1
195
1.6
195.6
2
200
7.9
196.2
195
1.6
194.1
3
200
7.9
190.0
195
1.6
199.2
4
200
7.9
193.4
195
1.6
192.5
5
200
7.9
206.8
195
1.6
195.7
6
200
7.9
201.8
195
1.6
196.1
7
200
7.9
171.6
195
1.6
194.9
8
200
7.9
189.2
195
1.6
195.9
9
200
7.9
205.5
195
1.6
197.0
10
200
7.9
203.8
195
1.6
192.6
11
200
7.9
192.3
195
1.6
196.5
12
200
7.9
196.9
195
1.6
196.4
13
200
7.9
198.5
195
1.6
195.6
14
200
7.9
203.2
195
1.6
194.1
15
200
7.9
193.9
195
1.6
192.6
16
200
7.9
199.3
195
1.6
193.2
17
200
7.9
208.7
195
1.6
194.2
18
200
7.9
213.7
195
1.6
194.6
19
200
7.9
212.6
195
1.6
197.1
20
200
7.9
206.3
195
1.6
193.9
I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
At the regional level, the projections were pretty darn accurate. I gave qualifying odds for the top-3 spots and ended up thinking I’d be accurate on 198 of the teams, the final total ended up being 197. The State level was a different story, where a few wholly unexpected teams hit the podium.
With that in mind, these simulations are a bit different than last year. Last year’s sample filtered out a runner’s lesser performances, which was fine in the regional setting, but didn’t account for the otherworldly MIS efforts that the Saline/Saugatuck boys had. In an attempt to capture more of the variant State Final performances, the samples for 2025 contain all of the invites and championship meets, hopefully giving more of an idea of how one performs when going to the well.
I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race over the past 4 weeks. This will attempt to account for injuries.
Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.
Bellaire and Petoskey St. Michael appear to be favorites. The Guardians are traditionally strong, this year no different, with four girls flashing sub-23 personal bests. The Eagles were Ski Valley champions, reigning over many of the same folk from this region. Ellsworth, Rogers City, and East Jordan also have a chance of qualifying. All were present at Mancelona, where Ellsworth was 2nd in the Small division. The Lancers were better than the Red Devils at pretty much every spot, though East Jordan found PRs from three of their six girls at the following Ski Valley meet. Rogers City didn’t have a full varsity lineup, but has had five girls in the past two meets. Just having numbers is a positive attribute in the far north of D4.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Bellaire
63
1.3
68
95+
2
Petoskey St. Michael
67
1.8
32
95+
3
East Jordan
83
3.8
40
4
Rogers City
86
4.3
36
5
Ellsworth
86
4.2
20
6
Indian River Inland Lakes
95
5.6
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Petoskey St. Michael
30
1.0
95+
95+
2
Mackinaw City
76
2.2
95+
3
Ellsworth
85
3.3
57
4
East Jordan
86
3.5
46
5
Hale
123
5.3
6
Lincoln-Alcona
129
5.7
7
Onaway
167
7.0
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Veronica Paga
Petoskey St. Michael
1.7
2
8
Amelia Hoyt
Bellaire
2.7
3
9
Lillian Coen
Ellsworth
3.3
4
11
Elizabeth Furman
Indian River Inland Lakes
6.3
5
10
Fenlynn Johnson
Rogers City
6.8
6
9
Josephine Furman
Indian River Inland Lakes
7.4
7
11
Danielle Agren
Johannesburg-Lewiston
7.8
8
10
Mea Wesley
Petoskey St. Michael
8.9
9
9
Madalyn Dewey
Bellaire
9.0
10
10
Bristol Skop
East Jordan
9.1
11
11
Avary Bearden
East Jordan
10.9
12
9
Reese Brege
Rogers City
11.3
13
11
Avery Langlois
Rogers City
11.9
14
11
Ruby Pletcher
Ellsworth
13.8
15
9
Grace Campbell
Bellaire
13.9
16
9
Sofia Cadarette
Petoskey St. Michael
15.8
17
12
Ella Nolan
Petoskey St. Michael
15.8
18
9
Nora Inman
East Jordan
18.6
19
11
Isabella Hocking
Bellaire
19.9
20
10
Juliet Inman
East Jordan
20.6
21
11
Margaret Newman
Indian River Inland Lakes
20.9
22
11
Morgan Reh
Bellaire
21.8
23
10
Keri Coolman
Rogers City
23.0
24
11
Ella Sponable
Ellsworth
23.0
25
12
Claire Shooks
Ellsworth
23.9
26
12
Lillyann Cooksey
Onaway
27.6
27
8
Tinly Richards
Boyne Falls
28.1
28
9
Laura Busick
Bellaire
28.7
29
10
Maleeya Hibbard
Ellsworth
28.7
30
9
Helena Ramsey
Petoskey St. Michael
31.2
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Cody Bradley
Petoskey St. Michael
1.3
2
12
Jack Sharar
Rogers City
2.7
3
12
Cole Brege
Rogers City
5.0
4
12
Cole Upper
Lincoln-Alcona
5.4
5
10
Caleb Chamberlin
Petoskey St. Michael
5.5
6
10
Zander Chellis
Ellsworth
6.1
7
12
Cole Upper
Alcona
6.4
8
10
Atticus Cadarette
Petoskey St. Michael
8.9
9
11
Jayden Dunnebeck
East Jordan
10.4
10
10
Ethan Sutton
East Jordan
10.8
11
12
Cole Abney
Ellsworth
12.6
12
10
Cole Wesley
Petoskey St. Michael
12.8
13
9
Cooper Feagan
Petoskey St. Michael
13.5
14
9
Knox Wilson
Mackinaw City
13.7
15
10
Logan Holden
Indian River Inland Lakes
15.0
16
12
Braylon Currie
Mackinaw City
15.1
17
9
Abraham Poel
East Jordan
16.1
18
12
Sean Bernard
Hale
18.9
19
9
Thomas Degrez
Hale
19.4
20
12
Paxton Downing
Hale
20.0
21
12
Ben Strittmatter
Mackinaw City
20.7
22
10
Mikey Sullivan
Mackinaw City
22.2
23
9
Mason Dawson
Ellsworth
23.2
24
7
Clayton VanOrman
Mackinaw City
24.4
25
10
Dominik Kranz
Petoskey St. Michael
26.6
26
9
Deacon Szymoniak
Onaway
26.7
27
9
Bjorn Johnson
Rogers City
26.7
28
12
Darren Boyat
Lincoln-Alcona
27.0
29
11
Jack Puroll
Ellsworth
27.1
30
12
Darren Boyat
Alcona
29.3
REGION 29
Any Big Battles?
The Traverse City area is the Mecca of Division 4 running. The NWC and WMD Conferences are at the center of it. In the League Week Rankings, seven teams along the high Lake Michigan coast were present in the top-27. From those seven squads, three stand out: Maple City Glen Lake, Buckley, and Grand Traverse Academy. Each team has their argument for capturing a regional crown. For the Lakers, it’s their league action, where they placed ahead of Buckley on all three occasions. But Buckley knows that in a big field, their Bears can find success, such as Bluejay, where their top-four were all sub-21:30, enroute to a runner-up finish in the Jays division. One point behind there was GTA. However, at Northern Michigan, the Mustangs were able to avenge that narrow defeat, all five of their scorers hitting sub-22, winning the D4 section. The three are projected within three points of one another, each with a fighter’s chance. Â
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Maple City Glen Lake
62
1.8
40
95+
2
Buckley
63
2.0
35
95+
3
Grand Traverse Academy
65
2.2
25
95+
4
Onekama
91
4.1
5
Bear Lake
107
4.9
6
Mason County Eastern
171
6.0
7
Mesick
188
7.2
8
Pentwater
196
7.8
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Maple City Glen Lake
28
1.0
95+
95+
2
Mesick
88
2.4
95+
3
Leland
94
2.9
81
4
Grand Traverse Academy
112
4.6
9
5
Mason County Eastern
114
5.0
10
6
Buckley
117
5.1
7
Lake Leelanau St. Mary
162
7.2
8
Bear Lake
174
7.8
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
10
Callie Sinke
Onekama
1.5
2
10
Sophia Grinage
Leland
1.6
3
10
Carmella Julian
Maple City Glen Lake
4.0
4
9
Ava Higley
Frankfort
4.7
5
11
Addy Zeller
Onekama
5.1
6
12
Mirthe Breuker
Buckley
9.8
7
9
Alyse Cox
Maple City Glen Lake
9.8
8
11
Natalie Burpee
Leland
10.1
9
11
Amelia McKinney
Grand Traverse Academy
10.9
10
10
Melodie Hulinek
Bear Lake
10.9
11
12
Alyssa Spicer
Mesick
12.3
12
11
Addison Patrzik
Grand Traverse Academy
14.1
13
11
Mikayla Kulawiak
Buckley
14.7
14
12
Kinsey Peer
Buckley
15.3
15
12
Addison Jarosz
Frankfort
15.3
16
11
Madison Smith
Grand Traverse Academy
16.7
17
9
Zakia Wagoner
Onekama
16.7
18
10
Alayna Ottenbacher
Maple City Glen Lake
16.8
19
9
Brooklyn Griffin
Buckley
17.5
20
9
Ellie Wright
Maple City Glen Lake
17.6
21
11
Tess Hoedel
Grand Traverse Academy
18.5
22
9
Tessa Rutherford
Bear Lake
19.9
23
12
Willa Roth
Frankfort
23.3
24
11
Bailey Case
Pentwater
25.1
25
10
Maria Schwerin
Grand Traverse Academy
27.2
26
12
Addisen Harrand
Buckley
27.5
27
9
Autumn Patrzik
Grand Traverse Academy
27.6
28
12
Natalie Brown
Bear Lake
28.5
29
11
Tsune DuCheney
Buckley
28.6
30
11
Kaylee Swanson
Buckley
29.2
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Kyle Redman
Mesick
1.7
2
11
Ty Redman
Mesick
2.6
3
9
Spencer McNitt
Maple City Glen Lake
2.9
4
11
Abraham Feeney
Maple City Glen Lake
3.2
5
11
Daniel Chaney
Lake Leelanau St. Mary
5.8
6
9
Christian Feeney
Maple City Glen Lake
6.2
7
12
Liam McCaw
Maple City Glen Lake
6.9
8
11
Lincoln Bailey
Maple City Glen Lake
10.0
9
10
Owen Jarosz
Frankfort
10.3
10
10
Lance Niedzielski
Mason County Eastern
11.3
11
12
Keith Crompton
Frankfort
12.3
12
10
Carter Suttmann
Leland
12.6
13
9
Ethan Harrand
Buckley
12.8
14
10
Campbell Fedderman
Leland
16.4
15
10
Nolan Koscinski
Bear Lake
16.7
16
10
Beckett Dennis
Grand Traverse Academy
17.4
17
10
Christopher Knudsen
Leland
17.7
18
11
Nate Gorman
Traverse City Christian
18.7
19
9
Easton Harrand
Buckley
19.8
20
11
Milo Shoup
Mason County Eastern
20.5
21
10
Kaiden Lague
Mason County Eastern
21.8
22
12
Matthew Bentley
Buckley
24.3
23
9
Kyle Doty
Mesick
25.5
24
9
Jaxon Williams
Grand Traverse Academy
25.7
25
9
Holden Preneta
Leland
26.1
26
12
Isaac Whipple
Grand Traverse Academy
26.3
27
11
Eli Willoughby
Grand Traverse Academy
27.0
28
11
Britton Wheeler
Maple City Glen Lake
27.7
29
11
Mason Howell
Marion
28.9
30
So
Mason Jager
Traverse City Christian
28.9
REGION 30
Any Big Battles?
Both individual races. Both involve the Breckenridge Huskies, a team with its paw prints all over D4 in recent years, featuring a 2019 boys state title and multiple girls teams with regional titles. They’ve got two outstanding individuals – Maizy Matthews and Anthony Rowe. Matthews was undefeated in MSAC action and just comes off a personal best, just slightly above 20-flat. Rowe also hit a personal best at Northern Michigan and found wins in the past two MSAC Jamborees. Runner-up to Rowe in the MSAC Championship was Brady Edwards, who owns the fastest PR in the field, a 16:19 in the early morning at Portage. Projected first on the girls side is the girl of many talents, Claire Long. In the spring, Long was one of D4’s best sprinters, division champ in the 400m and 3rd in the 200m. She was 4th here as a freshman, missed much of last season, but is healthy again, ripping a 19:27 at Saginaw County.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
36
1.0
95+
95+
2
Breckenridge
51
2.1
95+
3
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
60
2.9
95+
4
Vestaburg
80
4.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
33
1.0
95+
95+
2
Breckenridge
50
2.0
95+
3
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
97
3.2
88
4
Beal City
127
4.4
10
5
Carson City-Crystal
129
4.5
6
Montabella
166
6.4
7
Saginaw Arts & Science
168
6.6
8
Vestaburg
200
8.4
9
Saginaw Nouvel
202
8.5
10
St. Charles
262
10.0
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Claire Long
Saginaw Nouvel
1.4
2
10
Maizy Matthews
Breckenridge
1.7
3
10
Skylar Maclennan
Fulton
3.4
4
12
Olive Wakefield
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
4.9
5
11
Jessica Stouten
Vestaburg
6.2
6
9
Maezee Humm
Breckenridge
7.3
7
12
Emma McCarty
Carson City-Crystal
10.1
8
9
Natalie Kettler
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
11.3
9
10
Anna McCarty
Carson City-Crystal
12.0
10
10
Piper Schultz
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
12.1
11
12
Laura Bigard
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
12.5
12
10
Dilyn Colpean
Merrill
12.8
13
10
Peyton Rohn
Ashley
13.5
14
11
Nolee Leppert
Beal City
14.0
15
10
Taylor Wills
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
14.4
16
12
Ally Schmitz
Breckenridge
14.9
17
9
Sadie Mueller
St. Charles
16.0
18
11
Greta Schroeder
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
17.1
19
9
Amada Price
Fulton
20.1
20
10
Saralynn Shelley
Montabella
20.1
21
12
Phoebe Schultz
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
21.1
22
11
Aisly Taylor
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
22.8
23
11
Cora Carver
Vestaburg
22.9
24
9
Kacie Chaffee
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
25.0
25
11
Kaylie McCracken
Carson City-Crystal
25.9
26
9
Macie Bush
Breckenridge
26.0
27
12
Johanna Hubble
Beal City
26.2
28
9
Lilly Dubridge
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
28.0
29
11
Ryann Ball
Montabella
28.5
30
11
Ellie Bowerman
Beal City
28.6
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Brady Edwards
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
1.8
2
11
Anthony Rowe
Breckenridge
1.8
3
12
Jonah Pollatz
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
4.2
4
11
Wesley Chaffee
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
5.3
5
11
Amos Norder
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
6.0
6
12
Carter Clark
Carson City-Crystal
6.6
7
9
Oliver Burt
Breckenridge
8.2
8
11
Rush Marsden
Fulton
8.3
9
11
Dominick Chiverton
Breckenridge
9.8
10
11
Noah Dubridge
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
11.6
11
12
Nathan Cromar
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
12.6
12
9
Gus Barr
Breckenridge
13.9
13
9
Eli Baker
Coleman
14.3
14
12
Conner Fenton
Beal City
16.2
15
12
Amos Miller
Saginaw Arts & Science
16.3
16
11
Trevor Dolloff
Ashley
18.2
17
10
Logan Funnell
Beal City
18.5
18
9
Abram Fettig
Saginaw Nouvel
19.4
19
12
Caleb Hebert
Big Rapids Crossroads Academy
20.3
20
12
Demetrius Gondek
Vestaburg
21.2
21
10
MJ Flowers
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
21.9
22
10
Jonathan Egan
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
22.2
23
11
Payton Crawfis
Carson City-Crystal
23.2
24
9
Simon Norder
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
23.7
25
9
James Sanders
Breckenridge
23.9
26
10
Owen Zeien
Beal City
25.8
27
10
Cayd Wohlscheid
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
27.4
28
12
Bryce White
Montabella
27.9
29
11
Logan Whitmer
Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
28.4
30
9
Daniel Malott
Saginaw Nouvel
29.7
REGION 31
Any Big Battles?
Races appear fairly straight forward across the board, top-ten squads such as Gobles’ girls or the Holland Calvary Christian boys as heavy favorites to win. Libby Smith is having herself a year, so the main intrigue falls in the boys individual race. Christian Getz and Noah Schipper have been running 1-2 for the Crusaders on their many escapades. Each found a personal best at Bluejay, racing to 16:23 and 16:25, respectively. Lincoln Laansma, a 2024 All-Stater, owns a slightly faster PB and faced off against the two at Autumn Sunrise, coming in 5 sec. ahead of Getz on the Covenant Christian course.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Gobles
31
1.1
91
95+
2
Martin
39
1.9
9
95+
3
Fowler
83
3.1
87
4
St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic
98
4.1
13
5
Vermontville Maple Valley
106
4.8
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Holland Calvary Christian
25
1.0
95+
95+
2
Portland St. Patrick
97
2.4
93
3
Fowler
107
3.2
67
4
Gobles
110
3.5
40
5
Martin
171
5.6
6
Byron Center Zion Christian
174
5.7
7
Tri-Unity Christian
195
7.3
8
Hesperia
201
7.7
9
St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic
225
9.3
10
Muskegon Catholic Central
228
9.6
11
Vermontville Maple Valley
262
11.1
12
Lawrence
278
11.8
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Libby Smith
Gobles
1.1
2
11
Veyda Conley
Martin
2.2
3
8
Faith Schipper
Holland Calvary Christian
3.6
4
9
Ryleigh Alderink
Holton
4.6
5
11
Lauren Shaffer
Gobles
4.7
6
10
Zoe Fabing
Fowler
7.0
7
11
Lindsey Nordyke
Byron Center Zion Christian
7.3
8
11
Ava DeYoung
Gobles
7.7
9
10
Madison Deutschmann
Byron Center Zion Christian
9.5
10
10
Allison Rodgers
Martin
11.1
11
12
Madison Cooley
Gobles
11.9
12
10
DuRae Sage
Martin
14.0
13
11
Sara Schipper
Martin
15.0
14
9
Nora Schultz
St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic
15.6
15
12
Alison Rotman
Holland Calvary Christian
15.8
16
9
Riley Bender
Martin
16.4
17
11
Marian Davlin
Portland St. Patrick
16.5
18
10
Laura Rotman
Holland Calvary Christian
17.9
19
9
Melanie Jones
Vermontville Maple Valley
19.5
20
10
Addison Tomsic
Gobles
21.3
21
11
Rokhaya Ruhstorfer
Hesperia
21.3
22
12
Olivia Thelen
Fowler
21.4
23
8
Ella Blumberg
St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic
21.6
24
11
Kerigan Pung
Fowler
24.4
25
9
Emma Dettmann
Martin
24.6
26
12
Izabelle Soper
Vermontville Maple Valley
27.2
27
9
Taylor Cooley
Gobles
28.8
28
10
Marianna Simon
Fowler
28.9
29
12
Alice Kadlecova
Martin
29.3
30
10
Alyssa Sparks
Gobles
29.4
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Christian Getz
Holland Calvary Christian
1.9
2
11
Noah Schipper
Holland Calvary Christian
2.2
3
10
Lincoln Laansma
Tri-Unity Christian
2.2
4
11
Gibson White
Holland Calvary Christian
4.1
5
12
Timothy Chamberlain
Portland St. Patrick
6.1
6
12
Quentin Smith
Fowler
6.4
7
11
Francis Austen
Portland St. Patrick
8.2
8
11
Brody VanTuinen
Holland Calvary Christian
9.7
9
10
Reagan Downing
Holland Calvary Christian
10.5
10
11
Owen Ledebuhr
Holland Calvary Christian
12.2
11
12
Freddie Bierling
Byron Center Zion Christian
12.4
12
12
Lukas Rennells
Muskegon Catholic Central
12.8
13
11
Caleb Adkins
Holland Calvary Christian
13.0
14
11
Nate Ruhstorfer
Hesperia
14.3
15
9
Fletcher Amos
Gobles
14.4
16
10
Cole Ringel
Gobles
17.3
17
11
Landon Miller
Fowler
17.5
18
12
Isaac FoxElster
Portland St. Patrick
17.7
19
9
Levi Oudbier
Tri-Unity Christian
18.0
20
12
Liam Kamp
Libertas Christian
18.1
21
11
Jadon Dettmann
Martin
21.5
22
11
Jaxon Bunce
Gobles
23.7
23
10
Levi Knoop
Portland St. Patrick
24.8
24
12
Xavier Simon
Fowler
25.7
25
10
Andy Lopez-Garcia
Hesperia
26.4
26
10
Jackson Anderson
Muskegon Catholic Central
26.8
27
9
Dexton Feldpausch
Fowler
27.3
28
10
Levi Collins
Gobles
28.7
29
10
Keannan Marr
Holton
29.3
30
11
Gari Salvador-Garcia
Martin
32.2
REGION 32
Any Big Battles?
The third spot on the girls side.
As they’re a podium contender next week, the Kalamazoo Hackett girls will likely win. The host, Three Oaks River Valley, has improved over the course of the season, especially from Helen Donner, who has dropped 1.5 minutes from her freshman best. White Pigeon was the third qualifier from 2024 and Battle Creek St. Philip had three girls hit their season/lifetime best at the Battle Creek City Meet.
Both feature a rising Novi Christian Academy, both of the Warrior outfits having a breakout performance at Larry Steeb and in the MIAC Championship. Genesee Christian has moved into the 3rd spot in the girls race, mainly thanks to the emergence of Tori Ferguson, who has found the 21’s after an early season string of 23 min.+ performances. Webberville’s boys also had a strong showing at Larry Steeb, a mere 20 points behind Whitmore Lake. The Spartans rely on a very strong top-three, all under 17:45. That may be more advantageous further down the line, but definitely an aid here.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Whitmore Lake
21
1.0
95+
95+
2
Lansing Christian
62
2.0
95+
3
Genesee Christian Academy
99
3.4
62
4
Novi Christian Academy
103
3.7
36
5
Clarkston Everest Collegiate
124
5.1
6
Dansville
134
5.7
7
Byron
180
7.4
8
Webberville
182
7.6
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Whitmore Lake
45
1.0
95+
95+
2
Genesee Christian Academy
77
2.5
92
3
Webberville
81
3.0
72
4
Novi Christian Academy
92
3.6
36
5
Lansing Christian
125
5.3
6
Dansville
142
6.0
7
Byron
156
6.8
8
Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes
177
7.9
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Kaylie Livingston
Whitmore Lake
1.1
2
12
Carina Burchi
Whitmore Lake
2.9
3
10
Malynda Lambros
Whitmore Lake
3.3
4
11
Adrienne Mitchell
Lansing Christian
6.9
5
12
Elodie Weaver
Whitmore Lake
6.9
6
12
Sofia Robertson
Whitmore Lake
7.3
7
10
Andi Kirkman
Genesee Christian Academy
8.5
8
12
Delaney Richardson
Byron
9.1
9
10
Allison Schmitt
Clarkston Everest Collegiate
10.4
10
9
Cassa Minnis
Dansville
10.4
11
11
Annie Wernet
Lansing Christian
10.6
12
10
Madison Markowicz
Novi Christian Academy
13.0
13
12
Tori Ferguson
Genesee Christian Academy
13.6
14
11
Evelyn McIndoe
Novi Christian Academy
14.0
15
10
Gabriella Wood
Lansing Christian
14.1
16
12
Alaina Driver
Potterville
15.2
17
12
Juliette Tallon
Lansing Christian
17.2
18
12
Nadia Barnes
Novi Christian Academy
20.2
19
11
Makenna Bush
Lansing Christian
20.5
20
11
Caroline Darrah
Whitmore Lake
22.1
21
12
Bree DeLano
Dansville
22.7
22
12
Evie Kirkman
Genesee Christian Academy
23.6
23
11
Natasha Mendez
Clarkston Everest Collegiate
24.0
24
10
Mariah Diaz
Lansing Christian
24.9
25
11
Amy Yong
Ann Arbor Rudolf Steiner
25.2
26
11
Jane Wilder
Webberville
26.1
27
10
Ariana Stewart
Genesee Christian Academy
28.1
28
12
Yazmine Beverly
Webberville
29.0
29
9
Ella Baron
Clarkston Everest Collegiate
31.0
30
12
Abigail Yatooma
Novi Christian Academy
31.4
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Landen Livingston
Whitmore Lake
1.2
2
12
Reuben Jiran
Novi Christian Academy
3.8
3
10
Nathan West
Webberville
3.9
4
12
Ian Ferguson
Genesee Christian Academy
5.1
5
10
Nolan Stadel
Genesee Christian Academy
5.3
6
12
Ben Young
Lansing Christian
8.1
7
11
Brody Jeruzal
Ann Arbor Christian
8.3
8
9
Gabe Schultz
Genesee Christian Academy
10.1
9
12
Gavin Howery
Webberville
10.2
10
10
Nolan Collins
Whitmore Lake
11.3
11
12
Nathan Camilleri
Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes
13.5
12
11
Kasey Springer
Whitmore Lake
14.2
13
10
Jackson Onofre
Novi Christian Academy
14.8
14
12
Ethan West
Webberville
15.6
15
10
Leo Weaver
Whitmore Lake
16.2
16
11
Joseph White
Ann Arbor Rudolf Steiner
16.4
17
11
Benjamin Fox
Whitmore Lake
16.7
18
9
Carter Castilla
Dansville
18.0
19
10
Richard Lewis
Whitmore Lake
20.3
20
11
Brayden Steele
Byron
20.4
21
12
Elijah Ozenbaugh
Whitmore Lake
20.8
22
10
Evan Klish
Novi Christian Academy
23.5
23
10
Reid Hacker
Dansville
24.0
24
9
Ryan Stewart
Genesee Christian Academy
25.9
25
11
Luke Meyer
Lansing Christian
27.6
26
11
Jonah Spencer
Byron
28.5
27
11
Halston Hooley
Byron
28.6
28
9
Jack Bell
Novi Christian Academy
30.2
29
12
Matthew Howery
Webberville
30.5
30
9
Kai Hopkins
Potterville
30.8
REGION 34
Any Big Battles?
Gotta be Petersburg-Summerfield vs. Hudson. Despite the small 35-mile separation between the schools, the two haven’t faced off against each other this fall. What I can say is that both sets of girls have had some of their better team efforts of late. For the Tigers, it was at their home invite, where they were 3rd in the lower division. Last week, Petersburg-Summerfield was able to capture the TCC Championship. Placing four girls in the top-six was dominating enough early to clinch the victory no matter what happened late. Present there was a common opponent between the two – Sand Creek, a team that bested Hudson at Hudson Booster.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Hillsdale Academy
24
1.0
95+
95+
2
Concord
50
2.0
95+
3
Petersburg-Summerfield
92
3.3
75
4
Hudson
98
3.8
25
5
Manchester
142
5.1
6
Pittsford
152
5.9
7
Jackson Preparatory
171
7.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Hillsdale Academy
18
1.0
95+
95+
2
Manchester
85
2.3
95+
3
Concord
91
2.8
94
4
Jackson Preparatory
107
3.9
9
5
Hudson
134
5.0
6
Petersburg-Summerfield
170
6.4
7
Addison
174
6.8
8
Vandercook Lake
187
7.8
9
Reading
233
9.0
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Evelyn Meyer
Hillsdale Academy
1.3
2
9
Audrey Pyle
Concord
3.8
3
9
Heather Morris
Hillsdale Academy
6.1
4
11
Haley Stimer
Concord
6.4
5
9
Eliza Roberts
Hillsdale Academy
6.5
6
12
Annabelle Czeiszperger
Hudson
6.7
7
12
Elizabeth Caspar
Hillsdale Academy
7.2
8
11
Allie Miller
Hillsdale Academy
7.8
9
9
Audrey Rinehart
Concord
9.0
10
11
Maren Gehrke
Hillsdale Academy
9.2
11
12
Mary Schlueter
Hillsdale Academy
9.2
12
12
Makenzie Wolfe
Petersburg-Summerfield
10.1
13
10
Allison Ost
Petersburg-Summerfield
11.6
14
12
Cieara Barrett
Concord
14.8
15
10
Abby Raymond
Petersburg-Summerfield
16.1
16
10
Ellie Woodring
Addison
16.6
17
12
Grace Raymond
Petersburg-Summerfield
16.6
18
12
Naika Rath
Hudson
17.8
19
10
Mya Barrett
Concord
18.5
20
11
Lillian Jagielski
Pittsford
19.2
21
9
Braelynn Thorrez
Concord
19.3
22
9
Danaja Williams
Pittsford
22.8
23
11
Caroline Mason
Manchester
23.0
24
12
Taylor Kopin
Hudson
23.3
25
11
Teagan Clarke
Manchester
26.5
26
11
Miley Rising
Hudson
26.6
27
9
Elizabeth Falater
Reading
27.4
28
12
Valorie Hieber
Manchester
27.6
29
11
Hannah Ryan
Concord
28.3
30
12
Gabriela Harvel
Jackson Preparatory
30.2
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Grayson Rorick
Hillsdale Academy
1.0
2
12
Luke Molenkamp
Hillsdale Academy
3.3
3
11
Timothy Gaebler
Hillsdale Academy
4.1
4
12
Henry Lindley
Hillsdale Academy
4.8
5
10
Peter Winn
Hillsdale Academy
5.6
6
12
Grant Johnson
Manchester
6.8
7
11
Alec Dodak
Manchester
7.3
8
12
Corey Dubnicki
Jackson Preparatory
7.3
9
12
Maddox Hutchinson
Concord
9.1
10
9
Henry Rorick
Hillsdale Academy
10.0
11
12
Paul Herendeen
Concord
11.4
12
11
Drake Fenstermaker
Camden-Frontier
12.0
13
11
Carson Van Sickle
Hillsdale Academy
13.9
14
9
Blake Aube
Hudson
15.0
15
12
Dallas Swaenepoel
Vandercook Lake
15.0
16
10
Jacob Tatsak
Adrian Lenawee Christian
15.4
17
11
Keaton Smith
Concord
16.6
18
11
David Bauer
Morenci
20.1
19
9
Brayden Patrick
Jackson Preparatory
22.1
20
9
Asher Church
Hillsdale Will Carleton
22.9
21
11
Mohamed Adow
Morenci
23.3
22
9
Braydn Patrick
Jackson Preparatory
23.4
23
10
David Arbogast
Vandercook Lake
23.8
24
So
Tony Gudakunst
Addison
24.4
25
9
Connor Evans
Addison
24.8
26
11
Michael Navitskis
Manchester
26.6
27
12
Justin Gale
Manchester
27.3
28
9
Thomas Bastian
Jackson Preparatory
27.9
29
11
Colin Brown
Petersburg-Summerfield
28.2
30
10
Jericho Borck
Hudson
32.4
REGION 35
Any Big Battles?
You can always find a close battle between these Thumb teams. This year’s version could be for the third girls qualifier, between Dryden and Harbor Beach. The Pirates have been on their best behavior in October, hitting their highest team average at Ubly, then following that up with a 2nd place finish in the BTC Black. Winner however, was Dryden in the BTC Blue/Red (which color, I have no clue). The two have faced off this fall, won by Harbor Beach, although Dryden wasn’t able to field a full squad. Luckily, the Cardinals have added to their lineup and are now in the discussion to advance.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Ubly
49
1.1
91
95+
2
Kingston
63
2.2
9
95+
3
Harbor Beach
76
3.2
66
4
Dryden
80
3.6
37
5
Kinde North Huron
122
5.3
6
Brown City
128
5.7
7
Marlette
154
7.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Dryden
79
1.5
54
95+
2
Ubly
81
1.6
46
95+
3
Unionville-Sebewaing
107
3.1
83
4
Harbor Beach
134
4.8
7
5
Brown City
142
5.5
8
6
Mayville
150
6.1
7
Marlette
153
6.2
8
Kingston
168
7.6
9
Vassar
197
8.9
10
Deckerville
232
10.8
11
Caseville
237
11.0
12
Peck
238
11.0
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
9
Norah Kiley
Kingston
2.0
2
12
Cara Prusakiewicz
Dryden
2.4
3
12
Lilah Kiley
Kingston
3.2
4
12
Katie Sweeney
Ubly
4.4
5
10
Alyvia Janke
Unionville-Sebewaing
4.8
6
10
Payton King
Kingston
6.7
7
10
Claire Wright
Dryden
8.2
8
10
Abbygail Plester
Ubly
8.9
9
12
Madison Prowse
Brown City
9.4
10
11
Cailin Spearman
Harbor Beach
9.5
11
10
Myah Peruski
Ubly
11.7
12
9
Ella Gustner
Dryden
13.7
13
9
Rachel Becker
Unionville-Sebewaing
15.2
14
10
Brooklyn Morell
Ubly
15.7
15
10
Esther Bulgrien
Harbor Beach
16.2
16
10
Taylor Geiger
Ubly
16.2
17
11
Aspen Jimkoski
Kinde North Huron
16.6
18
10
Emily Meek
Unionville-Sebewaing
18.0
19
9
Isabella West
Mayville
19.1
20
9
Kayden Parker
Harbor Beach
20.7
21
12
HarLee Leasher
Brown City
21.0
22
10
Sophia Lawrence
Memphis
22.8
23
11
Lani Dimock
Harbor Beach
24.7
24
10
Allison Steeb
Deckerville
26.7
25
11
Elizabeth Schultz
Peck
26.8
26
10
Peyten Albertson
Marlette
27.0
27
9
Lyla Holdwick
Harbor Beach
27.3
28
10
Alexa Robbins
Harbor Beach
27.9
29
10
Kayle Talaski
Kinde North Huron
30.4
30
12
Loryn Nowiski
Harbor Beach
31.5
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Brody Karg
Harbor Beach
1.1
2
12
Carson Burgess
Brown City
2.0
3
11
Owen Wruble
Harbor Beach
5.1
4
12
Logan Romain
Dryden
5.1
5
9
Weston Guza
Ubly
6.4
6
12
Gianino Perna
Marlette
7.0
7
10
Levi Fitchett
Dryden
7.3
8
11
Brennan Robinson
Kingston
7.5
9
12
Michael Walsh
Ubly
7.6
10
9
Lucas Volmering
Ubly
8.9
11
10
Maksim Kohl
Unionville-Sebewaing
13.1
12
11
Thijs Van Rijn
Kingston
13.7
13
10
Wyatt Blohm
Vassar
14.1
14
12
Evan Gobie
Deckerville
14.2
15
12
Kale Beemer
Brown City
16.9
16
10
Jaycen Roberts
Dryden
18.8
17
12
Lincoln Haag
Unionville-Sebewaing
18.9
18
10
Brayden Kirkpatrick
Marlette
19.1
19
12
Tyler Pruitt
Mayville
20.0
20
9
Steven Budreau
Mayville
21.7
21
10
Lukas Brown
Unionville-Sebewaing
23.8
22
11
Beckett Hagen
Ubly
24.0
23
11
Wesley Kosinski
Kinde North Huron
24.2
24
12
Brenden Peter
Dryden
26.3
25
12
Jacob Campbell
New Life Christian Academy
27.2
26
10
Zachary Crumby
Unionville-Sebewaing
27.4
27
11
Tyler Roberts
Dryden
29.2
28
12
Dylan Lasher
Dryden
29.8
29
11
Donovan Glasgow
Capac
30.4
30
10
Brendan Aeder
Unionville-Sebewaing
30.6
REGION 36
Any Big Battles?
Unlike a few of the other matchups, Southfield Christian and Austin Catholic have met with a full varsity squad. The issue is that was a lifetime ago, way back in September. At that OCS Small School Invite, Austin Catholic put together a 16 pt. margin on Southfield Christian. In the six weeks that have passed SC’s Eagles have added impactful girls and had a few drop more than a minute from their Eastwood Beach effort. Speaking of Eastwood, that’s where the AC frontrunner Cassidy Bowers was recently able to place All-County and grab a lifetime best.
Kandin Shuler, Bridgman – each of the last three years, typically toward the end of the season, the Bridgman Bee finds her way into the 20’s. On Saturday, she didn’t just barely scrape in there, she ran a bold 20:32.
Dory Simon, Remus Chippewa Hills – she’s broken 20:00 on four separate occasions this year, and each time she’s run between 19:46-19:49. The latest three in the heat or on rainy days, some fast times are sure coming.
Alex Hamilton, North Farmington – after being on the high side of 17-flat all three of his previous seasons, Hamilton has made a living below it in his senior campaign. Yesterday was Hamilton’s 5th sub-17 of the year and the fastest to date, a 16:34.
Ben Gautsche, Union City – your Big 8 individual champion, winning three of the four conference jamborees. Following the rigors of league play, got a chance to truly rip it, which he did to the tune of a 16:46 season’s best. Now onto regionals, a place where he’s had great success, placing in the top-10 during of his high school seasons.
Nathan West, Webberville – the sophomore leap is occurring up in Webberville. West has dropped nearly a minute from his freshman best, his 16:16 at Larry Steeb representing the latest drop. Last fall’s experience at State will be a point in his favor, as West can undoubtedly mix it up in the front pack at MIS.
Meet
Boys Adj.
Girls Adj.
Average
Christian Comet
+8
+9
+9
Dryden Cardinal Classic
-6
-4
-5
Gobles
-14
-18
-16
Haunted Harvest
-22
-20
-21
Larry Steeb
+29
+33
+31
Late Season Warrior
-12
-16
-14
Mel Hall
-7
-13
-10
*** = State Title Contender ** = Top Ten Contender * = State Qualifying Contender WAB = Weighted Average Before. A listing of the previous week’s Top 5 Average. Not a perfect comparison as a team may not run their five best runners. But a show of how one ran relative to expectation.