I write all this to help both myself and others understand why regionals are the way that they are. In the past, this was bending a little too far towards criticism, this year, it’s all about learning why the assignments are made. As always, I wish the MHSAA was a bit more transparent on their processes, but perhaps this can shed some light on what those processes may be. The work to write this post took some serious time, I can hardly imagine what it took for those that made the decisions.
But those who know me know this: there aren’t many that love maps and running more than I… this was really fun. Hopefully one day, I can assist the MHSAA in these selections.
2023 Regional Assessments
Below are some charts I created to assess 2023’s regionals. The first set contains boys regionals, the second set contains the girls. The first chart in each set are top 27 teams from my 2023 pre-regional rankings. The second chart shows the State Finals places for each team from their respective region. I’m not sure how the MHSAA computes the previous year’s regional strength, but this is what I think would be a quality review. My rankings aren’t perfect, but they take the entire season into account, not just one meet. The State Finals are the only stage where every top team in a division is competing, but it’s a sample size of one. Two imperfect methods, that hopefully when combined, indicate which regionals were stronger or weaker.
Based on these charts, I would conclude that:
Stronger Boys Regions: 6, 11, 19, 31
Stronger Girls Regions: 1, 11, 15, 21, 29
Weaker Boys Regions: 17, 18, 22, 26, 33, 35
Weaker Girls Regions: 6, 7, 10, 18, 22, 26, 30, 32, 34
Overall Stronger Regions: 11
Overall Weaker Regions: 18, 22, 26
Based on this strength, the logical moves would be to:
Split up the strong Region 11 – which is much easier than other areas of the state. Being that the West Side of the state is heavy in Division 2 teams, those teams can go North (10), West (14), South (12), or further South (13).
Move stronger teams into Region 22 – a move made a bit simpler through a traditionally strong Saugatuck team moving back into D3. You can also bring teams from the East (23) or North (21).
Move stronger teams into Region 18 & 26 – geographically difficult. Region 18 is cornered in the SE portion of the state, so they could possibly bring teams from 16 & 17, but neither region was stacked with top teams last year. Same for Region 26, consisting of smaller schools stretching from Lansing to Lake St. Clair. Region 25 is the only choice to strengthen that doesn’t involve teams driving an impossible distance. But Region 25 was about as balanced as you’ll get, so why mess up a perfectly good region?
Division Switches
The chart below shows the teams that are switching divisions and the regions that they are leaving.
How does this help smoothing out the Stronger/Weaker Regions?
Uhhh, not much. You want to move teams out of Region 11. No teams moving up/down divisions from 11. You’ve got a Cedar Springs, which is now a top-20ish D2 team, but you definitely ain’t moving them into there. Well at least you can strengthen 18! Nope, no moves into Division 2 from teams in that area. 26 gains a bit of strength with Marine City. 22 gets bolstered the most with Bauer’s Trailblazers.
In conclusion, due to geographical and enrollment factors, balancing out the regions is a tough task, and will have to result in teams driving a considerable distance. It’ll look like gerrymandering. People won’t be happy. And this is what makes it a tough job.
2024 Assignments and Switches
BOYS ASSIGNMENTS
GIRLS ASSIGNMENTS
What occurred in order to balance Regions?
Region 11: lost Grand Rapids Christian and Spring Lake, moving to 10 and 12 respectively. When teams move out, someone has to move in, and that’s Hopkins.
Region 18: remains almost the same.
Region 22: gains Fennville (who qualified for State from Region 21) and Saugatuck.
Region 26: gains Ann Arbor Greenhills, Almont, and Marine City. All fit in geographically (even if it’s latitudinally long), all have fielded solid teams in recent history.
I cannot argue with many of these moves, with one exception. They may have went a little overboard in the shift from 11. But more on that in the next section.
Regions That Appear Fair
Everything from here on out is based on my pre-track projections. These include incoming freshmen, added to the best of my ability. This part will always devalue the PCEP schools (no clue who gets picked for which school), private schools (other than Traverse City, Divine Child, and Lansing Area Catholic schools), and Ann Arbor (whose middle schools aren’t on athleticnet – probably a really good thing).
Region 1: 4 top-27 boys, with #24 Holland West Ottawa, #27 Zeeland West, #28 Rockford, and #31 Grandville coming for the 3rd spot. 4 top-27 girls, but with three top-10 teams in Holland West Ottawa, Rockford, and Grand Haven
Region 2: 3 top-27 boys, but 5 top-27 girls. Girls strength mitigated by the fact that 3 of those top-27 are ranked from 20-27
Region 5: 2 top-27 boys, 3 top-27 girls. Boys are slightly weak but have two powerhouses, Saline and Pioneer.
Region 8: 3 top-27 boys, 2 top-27 girls. Girls slightly weaker with the loss of Utica, but Clarkston sitting outside of the top-27 always outperforms early rankings.
Region 9: About as optimal as you’ll get on the girls side, a little weak for the boys. Romeo being ranked #34 will change. The Utica and Stoney swap makes perfect sense. I never understood why Utica is in the MAC and Macomb County, but goes to a majority Oakland County regional, then Stoney is in the OAA and Oakland County, but goes to a Macomb County regional.
Region 11: Split, chopped, diced, and apportioned correctly. 3 top-27 boys squads, 4 top-27 girls squads, with Coopersville being the 4th best team in the region, ranked #25.
Region 13: 3 top-27’s on both, but could have taken on a Plainwell. More on that later.
Region 14: 4 top-27’s each way, but two teams ranked 20th and above for each gender.
Region 15: 3 top-27’s each way, helped by the loss of Alma. But we’re still wondering why Goodrich is here instead of 16.
Region 19: 2 top-10 boys squads, 2 top-10 girls squads. Clare and Grayling boys come in at #28 and #29. Boyne City ranked as 4th best girls team at #27.
Region 22: Addition of Saugatuck worked well for the boys, three top-27 teams. Girls now have four top-27’s, but all range from 17th to 26th.
Region 23: 4 top-27 boys teams, but not unusually strong at the top. 3 top-27’s for the girls.
Region 24: 3 top-10 boys teams, but (I hope I don’t offend anyone) no one else that looks like they can crack that. 4 top-27 girls, with 2 of those above #20.
Region 25: 3 top-27 boys, 3 top-28 girls. I don’t think anyone will lose sleep that #28 Caro isn’t in the top-27.
Region 26: 3 top-27’s on each side. Good work, committee, even if geography is a challenge.
Region 28: One top-5 boys team and that’s it. But Johannesburg-Lewiston and Petoskey St. Michael aren’t that team and each of those squads will add people, they always do. 3 top-27 girls teams.
Region 30: Solid on the girls end, a little weaker for boys, BUT traditional powers such as Breckenridge and Sacred Heart lurk just outside the top-27.
Region 32: A bit weak for girls, with only two top-27 squads, but I don’t mind this because you’re dealing with a SW corner of the state and less options to draw from. Three top-27 boys teams though.
Region 33: Four top-27 girls crews, but three of those range from #20 to #26. Two boys in the top-27, with #32 Potterville and #34 Webberville just on the outskirts.
Region 35: Pretty fair and pretty hemmed in by geography. Region 30 would be a candidate to grab USA, but that makes their girls side a bit strong. Each have four in the top-27, but one at #25 and the other at #27.
Regions That Appear Weaker
Always have to put this caveat in here, because people have a habit of twisting my words. This doesn’t mean the athletes here stink, this just means the rankings don’t have them as high. Go out and prove them wrong!
Region 7: No top-10 teams, and only one top-27 girls team. But it kinda makes sense, because the strength of D1 now appears to lie more on the west side, so in order to make this stronger, you’re taking you’re creating another weaker regional.
Region 16: Girls is fine, but has #21 Divine Child and #23 Notre Dame Prep. Boys only really has Pinckney, then the next highest is in the 40’s. The Goodrich conundrum from last year really doesn’t apply, as their girls are very strong, but guys will need some work. Options are limited on who could come down, because if you bring a Flint Powers, then you have to bring Goodrich, and bringing Goodrich down probably eliminates a deserving team.
Region 17: No top-27’s at all. Once again, Goodrich might be a solid option. With them, you probably have to bring Imlay City. Then perhaps Lamphere to 16 and a team from 16 to 15? See the moving parts that have to happen? But anyhow, given the lack of firepower here, it might be warranted.
Region 18: One top-27 boys team, two top-27 girls teams. Geography again, who are you drawing from? 16 and 17 are closer, but already on the weaker side.
Region 27: Again, the issue of geography. 26’s teams are a bit far north for these folks. 23 is probably the best option, but 23’s looking decently assigned this year. A positive is that although only 2 top-27 boys teams exist, 5 are ranked from #33 to #39. Girls only have one top-27 team, but three from #29 to #35.
Region 31: Two top-27 squads for each, including the #1 team right now for both genders. The loss of WMC particularly hurts and there’s really no one you can bring down. I mean, maybeee a Bear Lake, but that’s a little bit of a trek.
Region 34: Two top-20 teams, then a few just beyond the 27th rank cutoff. Once again, no real good options to bring down. Region 32 looks good, Region 36 is on the other side of an already far away Metro area. Maybe a Whitmore Lake from 33, but I don’t love that either, as that takes a ton of strength from 33’s boys.
Stronger in one, Weaker in the other
Region 3: Okay, the girls aren’t actually *that* weak, with three top-27 teams. But the guys are a bit stronger. Four top-20 teams, all with strong western ties. In the past, I know that a Lakeview has been in Region 4. But with that region at Holly, an impossible ask.
Region 4: Four top-27 girls teams, two in the top-10, and a 5th of Grand Blanc sitting at #31. Brighton looks to hold down the fort for boys, but beyond them, only one in the top-27. The logical move to bolster the boys side would be to take a western team from 7, particularly one that appears stronger as a boys team (or doesn’t have a girls team). Right now that appears to be Milford or Catholic Central. Then move a Lapeer/Davison to Clarkston and another Oakland County team into 7.
Region 6: Three top-10 boys teams and you know Plymouth will be better than I have them. Two top-27 girls teams, with one of those sitting at #26. Strengthening Region 4 from 7 had a scenario that worked, sadly I can’t say the same for the girls here.
Region 20: This is perfectly on the fence of a little strong and a little fair. Boys are good, one in the top-10, one in the teens, one in the twenties. The girls have four in the top-27, three of those between #11 and #19. Chippewa Hills is the logical move and perhaps they could go to 25, although a region stretching from Cass City to Canadian Lakes is a strettttch. Literally.
Region 21: Probably should’ve been in the fair category. Three top-27 girls, four boys. But those boys are ranked #18, #19, and #20. I don’t mind it.
Region 36: Three boys teams ranging from #14 to #19, then a top-5 team in Shrine. But the girls only contains a #15 Shrine. Kinda wonder if a Novi Christian or an Everest Collegiate could’ve been placed here. Dryden moving from 35 would make sense for girls, but overcorrects for the boys.
The Strongest of the Strong
Before I get into these regions, note that these are just Divisions 2 & 4 regions. Division 1 and Division 3 are pretty close to optimal. And there’s only three regions listed.
Region 10: The girls side is okay, was really great until Cedar Springs moved down into the muddy middle. For the guys, now we’re faced with 7(!!!) teams from #12 to #27. And then Ludington at #28. Which is great and wide open. With the region now at Benzie, a bit of an oddball in terms of geography is Gladwin. With their proximity to Shepherd, conference ties, and a stronger boys team, this could’ve made a less convoluted Region 10 without making 15 too strong.
Region 12: Poor Plainwell. The boys win their region in 2023, then as a #9 returning team, get placed in a region with the defending champs, 2022’s champs, and Grand Rapids Christian. Four top-10 teams. Ain’t like the girls are weak either. Four top-20 squads. The Grand Rapids area is tough to split up, but this may have been an overcorrection from last year’s Region 11.
Region 29: Have you ever run in this area? Very understandable why it’s a hotbed for distance talent. Hills, dirt roads, and all the scenery. Six top-27 squads on each side. With Chippewa Hills no longer hosting a regional, that eliminates the thought of Mason County Eastern heading to Region 30. Most of these squads are in close proximity to Benzie, so I don’t like many moves other perhaps GTA to Region 28.
If you’ve made it this far, here are the pre-track rankings
Once I get through the best crews and best athletes, I’ll get started on the summer preview.
All this said, go out and prove these rankings wrong!
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 