Category: Uncategorized

WEEK THREE
WEEK FOUR
CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON
COUNTY WEEK
LEAGUE WEEK
REGIONAL WEEK

This year’s version of the State Projections and Previews will be lighter on the writing than the previous ones. There’s a reason that I wrote so much for the rankings throughout the year, hopefully you can refer back to those for the backstories on the teams and individuals.

This year, just as the regionals were last week and projections were last year, I worked with the simulations. I liked my regional write-up for that, here’s one for example if you’d like to read. For the State version, I ran through 10x more simulations. Which really doesn’t sound like much, but when you graduate from 1,000 simulations to 10,000, that’s a significant jump. And given that the projected state qualifying teams were higher than ever, perhaps we’re onto something.

Girls Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

Projected Scores by Runner

Analysis

Romeo came into the year as the pre-season favorite, added a All-State caliber transfer, has stayed healthy, and their freshman stud has risen to every moment. Even without the addition of Deskins, they’d be the favorite here. Coach Buslepp has figured out the formula for MIS success, evidenced by their boys win in 2020 and last year, the 2nd place finish from these girls.

Second? Holland West Ottawa is impossible to predict. Yes, the Panthers have been steadily rising, but what can we expect from Helen Sachs? These ratings are great at taking a season’s worth of results and figuring out where someone places, they’re not great at taking one regional race and projecting from there. Either way, this squad has handled the pressure of repeating with grace. Ann Arbor Pioneer has been there all year as well, and they’re another team with big race experience. Whether that’s track nationals or the three-peat from 2019-2021, these girls have been through it all.

Girls Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Rachel Forsyth	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	12	Selma Anderson	GR Ottawa Hills	2.2
3	9	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	3.6
4	12	Jayden Harberts	Macomb Dakota	6.3
5	10	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	6.5
6	11	Lucy Cook	Rochester	8.6
7	10	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	9.0
8	12	Clara James-Heer	Forest Hills Central	10.0
9	11	Cassie Garcia	Northville	11.0
10	12	Morgan Brown	Livonia Churchill	11.4
11	12	Katie Watkins	Midland Dow	11.6
12	10	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	14.2
13	12	Ella Christensen	Northville	14.7
14	11	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	16.5
15	11	Mallory Bigelow	Oxford	19.8
16	12	Lydia Bowman	Ann Arbor Pioneer	21.2
17	10	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	21.4
18	12	Laney Alig	Saline	21.8
19	10	Addie Birkholz	Holland West Ottawa	23.2
20	11	Victoria Garces	Midland Dow	23.4
21	12	Layla Krayem	Livonia Stevenson	25.1
22	12	Shannon Gillahan	Okemos	25.5
23	11	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	28.2
24	9	Anyla Robinson	Detroit Cass Tech	31.3
25	11	Grace Tykocki	Grand Blanc	31.4
26	12	Payton Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	31.9
27	12	Carrigan Eberly	Brighton	33.7
28	11	Ava Alicandro	White Lake Lakeland	34.5
29	12	Braydee Elling	Oxford	36.9
30	11	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	37.3
31	11	Chloe DeRidder	Grandville	37.9
32	12	Natalie Mello	Ann Arbor Pioneer	38.1
33	11	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	38.5
34	12	Mariah Belmont	Macomb Dakota	40.6
35	11	Elle Bissett	Brighton	40.9
36	11	Lillian Deskins	Romeo	41.2
37	12	Hannah DeRoeck	Lake Orion	44.1
38	12	Izzy Fazio	Forest Hills Northern	45.2
39	10	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood	45.9
40	11	Ava Peters	Livonia Franklin	46.0
41	11	Lauren Walker	Holt	46.7
42	12	Paige McArdle	Davison	47.5
43	11	Addy Smith	Grand Haven	47.8
44	12	Ella Kirkwood	Traverse City Central	47.8
45	12	Allison Mayer	Ann Arbor Skyline	49.4
46	11	Annie Alkema	Kalamazoo Central	51.6
47	12	Alisia Olteanu	Walled Lake Western	52.1
48	10	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven	52.3
49	11	Corynn Gady	Saline	52.4
50	11	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	52.8
51	10	Addison Herr	Bloomfield Hills	53.4
52	12	Sylvia Sanok Dufallo	Ann Arbor Pioneer	54.3
53	11	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	54.4
54	11	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	54.6
55	11	Alena Blumberg	Dexter	58.6
56	12	Alexis Ball	Traverse City Central	59.4
57	9	Daisy Cox	Rockford	60.5
58	10	Lillian Schlack	Saline	60.9
59	11	Molly Baracco	Farmington	64.8
60	10	Kayla Ward	South Lyon	65.3
61	12	Emma Hoffmeyer	Walled Lake Western	66.1
62	9	Gabriella Fugazzi	Okemos	66.4
63	10	Abby Veit	TC West	66.9
64	9	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville	67.2
65	12	Madelyn Gordon	Walled Lake Northern	70.0
66	11	Grace Grupido	Fraser	71.0
67	11	Anna Sybenga	Forest Hills Central	73.1
68	9	Ava Goodman	Hartland	74.1
69	12	Katie Hume	Ann Arbor Pioneer	76.3
70	12	Alexandra Brigham	Clarkston	77.3
71	9	Becca van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	78.3
72	12	Ava King	TC West	78.4
73	12	Nina Frost	Fenton	78.5
74	11	Emma Gunnett	Holland West Ottawa	78.9
75	9	Emma Brown	Utica	80.7
76	11	Emma Smith	Rockford	83.0
77	11	Clare Mathison	Forest Hills Central	83.6
78	10	Trinity VanderWoude	Rockford	83.7
79	11	Kaelin Hughes	Livonia Stevenson	84.1
80	10	Audrey Hamilton	Troy	85.3
81	12	Sydney Smith	Davison	86.5
82	12	Emilee Rudlaff	Kalamazoo Central	86.7
83	9	Tessa Mascari	TC West	88.3
84	9	Annabeth Hazlewood	Salem	89.8
85	10	Juliet Lewis	Brighton	90.4
86	11	Abi Albright	Grand Haven	90.8
87	10	Siene Muraszewski	Utica	91.1
88	10	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	91.7
89	9	Colette Lozo	Northville	92.4
90	11	Sydney Roberts	Midland Dow	93.0
91	10	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge	93.8
92	9	Linda Lopez	Lake Orion	94.1
93	10	Quincy Behm	Ann Arbor Pioneer	94.5
94	10	Jersi Bilek	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	96.0
95	10	Katelyn Frazier	Fraser	96.2
96	11	Catherine Steele	Farmington	96.7
97	12	Lily Salazar	Okemos	98.7
98	9	Jillian Broyles	Highland-Milford	99.9
99	12	Nicole Mays	Okemos	100.5
100	11	Taylor Brodeur	Oxford	101.0

The only question is the course record. Lansing Catholic’s Olivia Theis ran a 16:52 in 2016, which is the official course record. In 2009, Megan Goethals ran what may be the most impressive performance, a 16:54 with wind blasting into your face down the home stretch (speed rating of 188.7). Rachel Forsyth has matched that number or gone above it in these past two races. Conditions appear to be optimal, don’t be shocked if sub-16:30 is in the cards.

Boys Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

Projected Scores by Runner

Analysis

These two KLAA squads have been at it all year. Northville vs. Brighton. The scorecard is tied, with one rubber match. The Bulldogs have captured the major invites: Spartan and Portage, placing seven of front of Northville’s third at Portage, four in front at Spartan. In local competition, the Mustangs have come out victorious, splitting up that Brighton pack in their tri and at their conference championships. Look for this: both the bubble and the time gap. If there’s a significant amount of space between each 5th finisher, the advantage tilts to Brighton. If Northville’s boys stick to Brighton like glue, advantage towards the Mustangs. There’s been some distinctly different strategy as well, with Brighton taking it out harder and holding on, Northville picking off bodies as the race wears on.

Boys Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Seth Norder	Grand Haven	2.4
2	12	Brendan Herger	Northville	5.2
3	12	Aiden Moore	BC Lakeview	5.8
4	12	Thomas Westphal	New Baltimore Anchor Bay	6.2
5	12	Vishvaa Ravishankar	Troy	6.4
6	11	Seth Conner	Jenison	7.7
7	12	Vincent Guaresimo	Romeo	7.9
8	11	Ethan Powell	Northville	8.6
9	9	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	10.6
10	12	Brandon Anderson	Dexter	12.1
11	12	Ty Parker	Walled Lake Northern	13.1
12	10	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	13.3
13	11	Taye Levenson	Bloomfield Hills	13.5
14	12	Luke Suliman	Ann Arbor Skyline	15.5
15	12	Sebastian Ramirez	Royal Oak	16.3
16	12	Noah Selvaraj	Bay City Western	17.3
17	12	Tyler Langley	Brighton	18.3
18	12	Jasper Cane	Kalamazoo Central	18.9
19	11	Kian Schneeweis	Troy	21.2
20	11	Alexander McArthur	Oxford	22.3
21	12	Iain Forrest	Davison	24.1
22	12	Mitchell Clark	Canton	25.6
23	9	Jack MacGregor	Howell	25.7
24	10	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	25.7
25	12	Truman Johnson	Saline	25.9
26	12	Carter Fox	Macomb Dakota	27.5
27	12	Pierce Grzymkowski	White Lake Lakeland	28.9
28	10	Harper Wesley	Utica	29.7
29	12	Liam Walters	GR Ottawa Hills	32.2
30	12	Luke Campbell	Brighton	32.5
31	12	Vincent Peterson Sand	Ann Arbor Pioneer	32.7
32	11	Mason Lucas	Jenison	38.0
33	12	Connor Clor	Romeo	40.4
34	10	Benjamin Hartigan	Northville	43.0
35	12	Tyler Brothers	Utica Eisenhower	45.4
36	12	Anirudh Krishnan	Plymouth	45.6
37	12	Evan Rice	Walled Lake Northern	45.6
38	12	Ian Lewis	Livonia Churchill	46.1
39	11	Evan Nickoles	East Kentwood	47.8
40	12	Willem DeGood	TC West	48.2
41	12	Zack Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	48.2
42	12	Oliver Moss	Berkley	49.3
43	11	Ben Eisnor	Grand Haven	50.5
44	12	Logan Begeman	Portage Central	51.1
45	11	Malcolm Spiegle	Livonia Churchill	53.4
46	11	James Cusick	Oxford	54.3
47	11	Tyler Brock	Brighton	54.5
48	11	Carter Livermore	Grandville	54.8
49	12	Jaxon Allen	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	56.8
50	11	Brady Millington	Brighton	58.4
51	9	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	59.8
52	12	Dylan Penberthy	Macomb L’Anse Creuse North	61.7
53	12	Roman Smith	Grand Haven	65.1
54	10	John Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	65.3
55	9	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central	66.8
56	9	Ben Romero	Forest Hills Central	66.8
57	12	Colin MacGregor	Midland Dow	67.1
58	11	Jack Chadwick	Plymouth	67.3
59	11	Nick Barretto	Northville	67.3
60	10	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	68.2
61	12	Mason Jett	Ann Arbor Skyline	68.2
62	12	Bryce Nowik	Clarkston	68.6
63	12	Louis D’Souza	Troy	68.8
64	11	Isaac Tanis	East Kentwood	69.2
65	12	Simon Davis	Macomb Dakota	69.9
66	11	Adam Dicken	Canton	72.7
67	11	Elijah Forbord	Brighton	73.4
68	10	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central	73.5
69	12	Eric Overdier	Ann Arbor Pioneer	74.9
70	10	Ian Morgan	Okemos	75.2
71	11	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	75.8
72	12	Braxton Sipes	Royal Oak	75.8
73	11	Logan Mullan	Detroit U-D Jesuit	76.3
74	11	Mitchell Jeruzal	Byron Center	79.7
75	12	Jack DeWaele	Clinton Twp. Chippewa Valley	80.9
76	11	Cayden DeGrendel	Clarkston	81.1
77	12	Brandon Penberthy	Macomb L’Anse Creuse North	83.2
78	12	Kenny Lewis	Saginaw Heritage	83.8
79	10	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge	85.2
80	12	Luke Oyster	Utica Eisenhower	86.8
81	11	Tyler Outlaw	Brighton	88.0
82	11	Andrew Kaczmarczyk	Bay City Western	88.1
83	10	Nate Linden	Troy Athens	90.5
84	10	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central	91.8
85	10	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	92.9
86	10	Ethan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	93.2
87	11	Colton Howell	Macomb Dakota	94.8
88	11	Napolean Lino	Rochester	95.2
89	10	Robert Dodd	Zeeland West	95.2
90	10	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central	96.5
91	11	Kort Thompson	Caledonia	97.3
92	12	Jack DeKruyter	Zeeland West	98.9
93	12	Bryce Goodsell	Romeo	100.0
94	11	Joseph Spada	Kalamazoo Central	101.7
95	11	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	103.2
96	10	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston	104.4
97	9	Liam Wierzba	TC West	105.1
98	12	Aiden Janes	Rochester Adams	107.0
99	12	Ryan Ward	White Lake Lakeland	107.7
100	12	Andrew Foshag	Monroe	109.0

With the monkey off his back, State 3200m in hand, plus a three race streak of sub-15’s, Seth Norder comes in as the favorite. He’s undefeated this year when facing D1 competition and letting it loose. Combine that with his ability to rise to the occasion (2nd here as a sophomore) and knowing what to anticipate up front, expect him to handle any challenge out there.

Beyond Seth, any number of kids could make a splash into second. Brendan Herger, exemplifying the patient Mustang tactics, will certainly be roaring down the stretch. Thomas Westphal isn’t afraid to stick his nose in any race. Vishvaa Ravishankar ripped a 15:11 at Jackson and has won tough races at OAA Red and Region 8. Seth Conner has answered the question of who’s the best junior. And Aiden Moore has been one of the better high-level, consistent athletes these past few weeks.

WEEK THREE
WEEK FOUR
CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON
COUNTY WEEK
LEAGUE WEEK
REGIONAL WEEK

This year’s version of the State Projections and Previews will be lighter on the writing than the previous ones. There’s a reason that I wrote so much for the rankings throughout the year, hopefully you can refer back to those for the backstories on the teams and individuals.

This year, just as the regionals were last week and projections were last year, I worked with the simulations. I liked my regional write-up for that, here’s one for example if you’d like to read. For the State version, I ran through 10x more simulations. Which really doesn’t sound like much, but when you graduate from 1,000 simulations to 10,000, that’s a significant jump. And given that the projected state qualifying teams were higher than ever, perhaps we’re onto something.

Girls Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

Projected Scores by Runner

Analysis

This is about as straight-forward as you’ll get. Grand Rapids Christian has been dominant in every meet, whether that’s placing four in the top-8 at Otsego and Region 11, winning Portage, or beating Pioneer at Benzie. For second, it’s likely a two horse race between Otsego and Goodrich. It’s very tough coming back as the defending champ, but the Bulldogs have handled it admirably. Goodrich is seeing the realization of all that middle school talent that’s flown into their program these past few years. Goodrich is probably a bit stronger towards the back, though Otsego has three potential All-Staters, meaning they only really have to worry about scoring two.

Girls Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Natalie VanOtteren	GR Christian	1.8
2	12	Gail Vaikutis	St. Joseph	3.0
3	11	Elena Figueroa	St. Joseph	3.5
4	9	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	5.0
5	12	Emily Tomes	GR Catholic Central	6.1
6	12	Drew Muller	East Grand Rapids	7.0
7	11	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	8.8
8	10	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	9.9
9	12	Mary Richmond	Frankenmuth	10.8
10	10	Ellie Scholma	GR Christian	11.5
11	12	Meghan Ford	Mason	14.4
12	11	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	14.8
13	10	Lilah Poel	GR Christian	15.3
14	11	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich	15.4
15	10	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	15.5
16	12	Logan Brazee	Otsego	15.6
17	11	Ezgi Kurt	Alma	21.7
18	12	Jenna Pilachowski	Monroe Jefferson	22.6
19	11	Summer Brower	Ludington	23.1
20	11	Sophy Skeels	Adrian	23.7
21	12	Payton Holtz	GR Christian	24.4
22	12	Megan Germain	Otsego	24.5
23	11	Natalia DeMea	Chelsea	24.8
24	12	Allison Kuzma	Zeeland East	25.6
25	12	Addison Washler	FHE Ada Forest Hills Eastern	29.9
26	9	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	30.1
27	12	Kyla Meyers	Spring Lake	31.6
28	9	Olivia Hollebeek	Holland Christian	32.9
29	12	Naomi Nelson	GR Christian	33.6
30	12	Emma DeVries	GR West Mich. Aviation	33.8
31	12	Camille DeCola	Marshall	33.9
32	11	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	35.3
33	11	Layla Jordan	Goodrich	35.9
34	10	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	37.5
35	10	Samantha Brown	Clio	37.7
36	9	Caroline Randall	Hastings	38.3
37	12	Anastee Davis	Adrian	38.5
38	12	Nora O’Leary	Petoskey	40.6
39	11	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	41.0
40	12	Tatum Dykstra	Fruitport	41.3
41	12	Abby Young	St. Johns	41.3
42	12	Ellia Agar	GR_South Christian	45.3
43	11	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	46.3
44	9	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian	47.4
45	9	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	48.7
46	9	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	49.0
47	9	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	49.9
48	11	Mea D’Agostino	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	51.6
49	12	Bea Reeser	Spring Lake	51.8
50	9	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	52.1
51	9	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	52.6
52	10	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	54.9
53	12	Maddie Bosch	Hudsonville Unity Christian	55.7
54	9	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	55.9
55	9	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	56.0
56	10	Linnea Paige	Fremont	56.5
57	10	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	57.9
58	11	Madison Morris	Tecumseh	58.4
59	12	Emma Steele	Vicksburg	64.4
60	9	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	65.6
61	11	Joy Evans	Alma	66.3
62	11	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	66.9
63	11	Chloe Josephson	Linden	68.4
64	10	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	69.5
65	10	Chloe Khon	Jackson Northwest	71.3
66	11	Preslee Perkins	Stevensville Lakeshore	71.8
67	12	Ava Baltierra	Armada	72.6
68	11	Maria Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	73.2
69	12	Adia Sikkema	GR Christian	74.5
70	10	Taryn DiLaura	Zeeland East	75.5
71	12	Sparrow Centeno	Southgate Anderson	77.2
72	12	Claire Marosi	GR Catholic Central	77.8
73	9	Lucy Waalkes	GR Christian	78.2
74	12	Clara Fletcher	St. Johns	78.5
75	12	CamBrie Corey	Petoskey	81.7
76	10	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	81.7
77	9	Claire Brown	Goodrich	81.9
78	12	Morgan Newton	Croswell-Lexington	81.9
79	9	Mia May	Sparta	81.9
80	11	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	82.3
81	10	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron	82.5
82	11	Cami Kraai	Whitehall	83.1
83	10	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey	88.0
84	11	Karie Keefer	Freeland	88.3
85	11	Nicole Schafer	Williamston	88.4
86	11	Avery Byrne	Goodrich	89.3
87	9	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	90.1
88	12	Jennifer Hernandez-Medina	Three Rivers	91.3
89	10	Emma Crandell	Owosso	91.7
90	10	Jillian Clason	FHE Ada Forest Hills Eastern	92.5
91	9	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	92.8
92	11	Josie Jenkinson	Owosso	93.6
93	12	Libby Summerland	Owosso	95.7
94	9	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	96.8
95	10	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	97.5
96	9	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	98.1
97	11	Courtney Bovair	Carleton Airport	98.4
98	10	Josie Longcore	Plainwell	98.9
99	10	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron	99.0
100	12	Jade Murdoch	St. Joseph	102.3

It’ll probably be these three girls at the front. They’ve all shown the ability to ratchet things down into the mid-17’s when needed, such as their matchups at Cougar Falcon and Portage. Gail Vaikutis captured Portage, Natalie VanOtteren at Cougar Falcon, and Elena Figueroa was right there in each. The ratings slightly favor VanOtteren, but the ratings aren’t the greatest at taking those who are saving their energy, as it appears the St. Joseph tandem has been doing the past few weeks. Beyond these three, look for freshman Ava Schafer, defending champ Drew Muller, and Emily Tomes to kick down any carnage that presents itself.

Boys Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

Projected Scores by Runner

Analysis

You’re just gonna have to read Jacob Tanner’s excellent, lengthy preview. I told Jacob before the week that I wasn’t going to work on the same subjects that he did and he knocked it out of the park here. Real quick though, it all depends on where the packs are. If there’s a ton of runners between FHE/Allendale/GR Christian’s 4th and 5th and Pinckney’s 4th and 5th, the former will likely stay ahead. If not, Pinckney has a real chance. If so, it comes down to the first three guys of those first three teams, and as of now, it appears that FHE has the strength there.

Boys Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Connell Alford	Chelsea	2.0
2	11	TJ Hansen	Freeland	2.4
3	12	Evan Loughridge	Pinckney	2.8
4	12	Solomon Kwartowitz	Cranbrook Kingswood	4.3
5	12	Alex Thole	East Grand Rapids	6.4
6	11	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	7.5
7	12	Noah Lambers	Holland	9.2
8	12	Paul Moore	Pinckney	9.3
9	11	Colin Murray	Dearborn Divine Child	12.3
10	11	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	12.7
11	12	Nate Carmody	Haslett	13.8
12	12	Sean Pettis	Fremont	13.9
13	12	Braylon Petty	Adrian	15.3
14	10	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	17.8
15	11	Simon Triezenberg	GR Christian	18.9
16	12	Ryan Brinker	East Grand Rapids	20.8
17	12	Logan Ruffner	Riverview	20.8
18	12	Elliott Sirianni	Clio	21.0
19	12	Brendan Hoving	Forest Hills Eastern	24.0
20	12	Liam Hinman	Forest Hills Eastern	24.9
21	10	Thomas Larson	Alma	25.8
22	12	Gregory Janesak	Sparta	26.3
23	10	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	26.5
24	11	Dominic Lowrie	BC Harper Creek	26.5
25	10	Owen Metzger	Sparta	26.6
26	12	Nolan Pinion	Lake Fenton	27.2
27	11	Alex Doneth	Mason	27.3
28	11	Dylan Lydic	Haslett	29.2
29	12	Ethan Sandula	Pinckney	29.7
30	11	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	30.7
31	11	Kilian Whalen	Allendale	31.6
32	12	Caleb Palmreuter	Gladwin	32.2
33	9	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	34.3
34	10	Moises Salazar	Adrian	35.5
35	12	David Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	40.1
36	12	Aiden Krueger	Niles	40.5
37	12	Isaac Staib	St. Johns	41.3
38	12	Brewer Snay	Macomb Lutheran North	41.8
39	11	Seth Mead	Gladwin	42.3
40	11	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	43.1
41	9	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	43.9
42	11	Nolan Longuski	Shepherd	44.1
43	11	Henry Cox	Plainwell	44.5
44	11	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	45.0
45	11	Jeb Hillary	GR Catholic Central	47.0
46	12	Cooper Jacobsen	Forest Hills Eastern	47.2
47	12	Shay White	St. Joseph	47.7
48	12	Connor Griffith	Marshall	49.4
49	12	Andrew Yax	Clio	50.5
50	11	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	50.6
51	12	Shane Izzard	Petoskey	50.7
52	12	Nolan Nixon	Cadillac	51.0
53	12	Dylan Clark	GR Christian	51.3
54	11	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	55.4
55	10	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	55.9
56	11	Keegan Hoekstra	GR Christian	56.9
57	11	Elijah Christensen	Gladwin	58.2
58	10	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	58.5
59	11	Stewart Waters	Whitehall	61.8
60	11	Ben Gross	Allendale	62.2
61	11	Sullivan Zietlow	Three Rivers	65.4
62	12	Blake Ferguson	Yale	65.9
63	12	Luke Glasgow	Spring Lake	66.0
64	10	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	66.9
65	12	Cooper Singleton	Parma Western	67.1
66	12	Giovanni Pardo-Keegan	Yale	67.1
67	12	Jacob Montgomery	Ionia	69.7
68	11	Carter Sherman	Fremont	74.6
69	11	Landen Wise	Frankenmuth	75.2
70	12	Ali Kudmani	Alma	76.8
71	11	Jack Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley	78.2
72	11	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	78.3
73	12	Matthew Schrauben	St. Johns	78.9
74	9	Ryan Good	Parma Western	79.5
75	12	Jonathan Koetje	GR Christian	80.9
76	12	Tommy Farley	Petoskey	81.6
77	12	Ian Richthammer	GR Catholic Central	85.0
78	11	Jacob Hopkins	Detroit Country Day	85.0
79	11	Reece Davis	Marshall	85.2
80	11	Isaak Rubley	Dundee	85.4
81	12	Acer Campbell	Yale	85.7
82	12	Tate Miller	Forest Hills Eastern	86.1
83	10	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	86.2
84	12	Isaac Veen	Plainwell	87.4
85	10	Murphy Wagner	Saginaw Swan Valley	87.7
86	12	Peter Kuperus	GR Christian	88.1
87	12	Dane Bailey	Edwardsburg	88.7
88	12	William O’Dell	BC Harper Creek	88.8
89	9	Mason Hill	Allendale	90.0
90	10	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	91.2
91	11	Cougar Clark	Frankenmuth	93.7
92	12	Matthew Canales	Adrian	95.3
93	10	Micah Small	GR Christian	95.9
94	10	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids	96.6
95	12	Joe Waalkes	GR Christian	97.6
96	11	Aidan Goodwin	Otsego	97.7
97	11	Will Whitmore	Holland Christian	98.3
98	11	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	98.4
99	9	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	98.5
100	12	Dylan Distelrath	St. Clair	100.6

The odds have Connell Alford as the slight favorite. Those odds don’t take into account that he’s won here before, which in my opinion plays a bit of a role. But he hasn’t won here before with this level of competition. Results this year show that he can – whether that’s low-15’s at Portage and Spartan or a dominant win in his opener at Lamplighter. TJ Hansen probably has the most pop, highest wow factor of any competitor. Those who were at Bluejay say that he looked completely under control during his negative-splitted 14:46. Following a defeat at Portage, he’s cruised into the meet here, can he now summon that effort from a month ago? Evan Loughridge has been the most consistent of the bunch, steadily running the equivalent of 15:20’s each time out. One of those times was a win over Alford, another a win over Kwartowitz. Solomon Kwartowitz has the fastest 3200m PB of the bunch and his resume this season consists of hills, hills, and more hills. MIS should appear like a pancake compared to this past month, so there’s a great chance he outperforms his ranking just like last year.

WEEK THREE
WEEK FOUR
CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON
COUNTY WEEK
LEAGUE WEEK
REGIONAL WEEK

This year’s version of the State Projections and Previews will be lighter on the writing than the previous ones. There’s a reason that I wrote so much for the rankings throughout the year, hopefully you can refer back to those for the backstories on the teams and individuals.

This year, just as the regionals were last week and projections were last year, I worked with the simulations. I liked my regional write-up for that, here’s one for example if you’d like to read. For the State version, I ran through 10x more simulations. Which really doesn’t sound like much, but when you graduate from 1,000 simulations to 10,000, that’s a significant jump. And given that the projected state qualifying teams were higher than ever, perhaps we’re onto something.

Girls Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

This is something new. I’ve always had odds for winning or placing, but I never thought to give odds for each place. Hopefully this will better show the range of places for each team and better elucidate teams that are more consistent and those who have a slight propensity for the chance at a major day.

Place and Score by Runner

Analysis

The Division 4 Preview had a little look into whether the Fastest Fifth Theory is true. Essentially, the idea goes that if you have the first fifth finisher, you have the best chance at winning a State Meet. I’ve had it told to me that every D1 girls winner at MIS has had the fastest fifth in the field, I wondered if that was the case for all divisions. This is only going back to 2019, with the technology these days, it’s a quick look. Prior to 2019, it’s a slower look, but definitely ripe for off-season inspection.

What I can glean from this data is that having the first fifth finisher is important, but not 100% necessary to win. If you have four elite runners such as Hart’s girls from 2019-2021 or Otsego’s girls last year, you can build up enough of a gap to overcome a pack finishing before your final scorer. If you don’t have those elite four, your 5th runner better be within 20 seconds of the fastest 5th in the field, or else you’re accumulating too many points in a hurry.

For Division 3’s girls, there’s five teams that could come in before anyone else: Lumen Christi, Traverse City St. Francis, GR Covenant Christian, and Elk Rapids. With that said, the race may be won by firepower up front. Each team has a potential All-Stater, some have two, some even have three. As the race unfolds, I might look more at who is coming in early, as each of these teams have the depth late.

Another one of my theories, one that’s completely untested and I’m not even sure how I’d research, is that teams that move up throughout the race tend to do better in big race environments. Maybe I’m influenced by the MSU Women, who have won consecutive Big Ten titles using this strategy. But it makes sense, in that teams that are fading are giving away places and teams that are moving up are usually running even/negative splits and catching people. My assumption is that teams that score lower and lower points with each mile are less apt to get too excited and amped up in the moment.

Spartan
Holly
Bluejay
Portage

There have been some common races between the bunch. At Shepherd, the only team missing was Lumen Christi. At Portage, the only team missing was Elk Rapids. Lumen Christi won Portage by placing all five girls in the top-30, St. Francis won at Bluejay with the same array of places. The Elk girls mastered moving up throughout the Bluejay race, scoring 140 at the mile and 92 at the finish. If conditions favor heavy amounts of places being exchanged late, don’t be shocked if the ER girls move into the top-3.

Girls Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jessica Jazwinski	Hart	1.1
2	12	Madison Osterberg	Jackson Lumen Christi	2.3
3	11	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.4
4	11	Emmry Ross	Onsted	3.9
5	11	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	6.3
6	12	Tessa Roe	Lansing Catholic	6.7
7	11	Lila Volkers	Kent City	7.3
8	12	Mylie Kelly	Benzie Central	7.9
9	11	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	8.7
10	12	Miranda McNeil	Morley-Stanwood	8.7
11	9	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	12.9
12	12	Amber Koole	GR Covenant Christian	13.0
13	11	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	13.0
14	9	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	16.2
15	12	Jenna Sweeney	Reese	19.8
16	11	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	21.9
17	10	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	23.9
18	12	Liliana Lehnst	Ithaca	24.1
19	12	Kinsie Jacques	Pinconning	25.2
20	12	Olivia Perrine	Hanover-Horton	25.4
21	11	Kaya Vrable	Caro	25.7
22	9	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	27.1
23	10	Hope Miller	Blissfield	27.2
24	10	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	27.9
25	9	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	28.0
26	12	Cylee Elkins	Clinton	28.5
27	9	Shelby Kuiper	GR Covenant Christian	28.6
28	12	Isabella Max	Kent City	29.1
29	12	Jaiden Dickman	St. Louis	30.0
30	10	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	30.1
31	12	Cecilia Postma	Manistee	31.1
32	12	Avelina Hollandsworth	Remus Chippewa Hills	32.3
33	11	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	32.5
34	12	Gracie Houtman	Kent City	34.9
35	10	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	36.2
36	11	Mary Masserant	Traverse City St. Francis	36.2
37	10	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	36.8
38	11	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	38.3
39	11	Ava Hathaway	Bronson	38.7
40	12	Paige Herron	Caro	38.8
41	9	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	39.0
42	11	Megan Woelkers	Flat Rock	42.3
43	10	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	47.5
44	12	Allison Bowles	Clinton	48.1
45	12	Sophia Reynolds	Hanover-Horton	49.5
46	10	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	49.6
47	12	Claire Neumann	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	49.9
48	11	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	50.2
49	12	Maddie Gallagher	Traverse City St. Francis	50.2
50	11	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	51.3
51	10	Myleigh Hephner	Ithaca	54.5
52	11	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	54.7
53	11	Layla Lopez	Jackson Lumen Christi	55.2
54	9	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	57.9
55	9	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	58.7
56	9	Libby Schuster	Ann Arbor Greenhills	59.1
57	9	Lydia Soelberg	Shelby	61.4
58	10	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek	61.6
59	12	Abbie Wiegers	North Muskegon	63.1
60	11	Chloe Stalhood	Hillsdale	63.5
61	10	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic	63.7
62	9	Alli Gautsche	Union City	64.9
63	9	Reagan Lees	Wixom St. Catherine	64.9
64	12	Angel Miller	Parchment	65.0
65	12	Melanie Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	65.6
66	11	Hunter Shellenbarger	Elk Rapids	67.3
67	12	Nidia Martinez	Fennville	70.6
68	9	Pyper Braun	EPBP Laker	71.2
69	12	Sydney Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	72.3
70	10	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	74.3
71	10	Abbie Schneider	Pewamo-Westphalia	75.8
72	11	Erin Lubahn	Leslie	77.6
73	12	Tessa Wohlschlegel	Beaverton	78.5
74	10	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	78.8
75	9	Lydia Minderhoud	GR Covenant Christian	78.9
76	11	Emma Miller	Buchanan	81.0
77	10	Anna Poppema	Bath	81.4
78	12	Emily Anger	Mancelona	82.3
79	12	Faith Swenor	Caro	83.4
80	12	Lindsay Minderhoud	GR Covenant Christian	84.5
81	12	Jaida Schulte	Elk Rapids	84.9
82	9	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	85.0
83	10	Sarah Trojanowski	Traverse City St. Francis	85.7
84	9	Anna DeVries	GR Covenant Christian	87.7
85	12	Morgan Lowell	Watervliet	88.0
86	11	Hannah Geaney	Wyoming Potter’s House	88.4
87	9	Marnath Tuol	Grandville Calvin Christian	88.6
88	12	Eva Pray	Elk Rapids	90.0
89	10	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	93.6
90	10	Delaney Little	Boyne City	94.3
91	12	Olivea Gessner	Olivet	95.1
92	11	Clara Fast	Bridgman	95.2
93	9	Natalie Rosema	Hart	95.3
94	9	Jenna Keilen	Pewamo-Westphalia	96.1
95	11	Madeline Young	Buchanan	96.7
96	11	Emily Rathka	Laingsburg	97.3
97	12	Rachael Walch	Caro	97.6
98	12	Samantha Coots	Clinton	98.0
99	12	Anika Bery	Ann Arbor Greenhills	98.2
100	11	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	99.3

Jessica Jazwinski is clearly the favorite coming in here and for good reason, when she’s on her game, she races with extreme toughness. The problem for others in that previous sentence is that she’s almost always on her game, especially at the longer distances. She’s rattled off low-17 efforts each time this year when put to the test – whether that’s Bluejay, Cougar Falcon, or at Chippewa Hills.

There seem to be three that have separated themselves beyond Jazwinski. Madison Osterberg has added strength to her impressive mid-distance resume. The D3 winner in the 1600m, she’s taken where she left off from last year’s MITCA race and has raced to a multitude of sub-18’s. She’s done it on fast courses and in the mud at Hudson Mills. Emmry Ross (your defending D3 400/800m champ) had some mid-season battles with Osterberg and Kaylie Livingston, pushing to a 17:29 personal best at Stockbridge. Kyah Hoffman has lost when facing Osterberg or Ross, but has the most consistency of the bunch, dipping below 18:00 on occasion and hitting the equivalent of low-18 marks each time out.

Boys Team Projections

Projected Place Ranges

Place and Score by Runner

Analysis

Traverse City St. Francis is clearly the favorite. The Gladiators have it all, the GladPack in the middle, low sticks up front. They won by significant margins at the mid-season, state preview meets such as Bluejay or Portage, scoring seven boys before many teams’ 4^th or even 3^rd.

What’s wide open is the race for the other podium spot, the other trophy. Reed City may have languished behind some of these folks at Bluejay and may have the weakest depth, but the Yotes collectively had the best race of their season at Region 20, adding up to only 20 points while bringing all five boys home before 18-flat. Covenant Christian and Pewamo-Westphalia have more depth than Reed City and have shown the ability to pass in droves late. And Hanover-Horton has the tradition of always outperforming these numbers. The Comets are projected 5^th here, that’s almost a guarantee they’ll be at least 3^rd.

Boys Individual Projections

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Robert Jazwinski III	Hart	1.9
2	12	Collin Farmer	Pewamo-Westphalia	2.5
3	11	Isaiah Dinverno	Jackson Lumen Christi	5.5
4	12	Ben March	St. Louis	7.8
5	12	Samuel Martini	Kent City	9.5
6	12	Keegan Masters	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	9.8
7	10	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	10.0
8	12	Brad White	Clare	10.4
9	11	Mitchell Hiatt	Onsted	11.1
10	11	August Rohde	Reed City	11.8
11	11	Theodore Davis	Dansville	12.2
12	12	Jackson Rodriguez	Wyoming Potter’s House	12.5
13	12	Boden Genovese	Coloma	13.3
14	11	Leo Swager	Traverse City St. Francis	14.3
15	10	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	15.4
16	11	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis	15.4
17	12	Anthony Kiaunis	Reed City	16.6
18	12	Lucas Hopkins	Olivet	18.9
19	11	Levi Kamps	GR Covenant Christian	21.2
20	12	Jaden Barnes	Bloomingdale	22.1
21	11	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	23.0
22	12	Ryan Allen	Reed City	23.8
23	12	Gavin Guggemos	Kalkaska	24.4
24	12	Graham Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	24.6
25	10	Landen Styka	Ithaca	24.7
26	11	Tyler Heal	Sanford-Meridian	27.4
27	11	Landen Boulis	Hanover-Horton	28.2
28	9	Graeson Decker	GR Covenant Christian	29.5
29	11	Daniel Mandujano	Watervliet	31.1
30	12	Evan Shepherd	Hanover-Horton	33.0
31	12	Gavin VanKampen	Jonesville	35.0
32	11	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	38.0
33	10	Ben Gautsche	Union City	38.9
34	12	Brodie Delamater	Grant	39.9
35	12	Tucker Krumm	Traverse City St. Francis	40.3
36	12	Nolan Grant	Hillsdale	41.9
37	12	Nathan Day	Saranac	42.3
38	12	Carter Holmes	Bath	43.6
39	12	Gannon Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	43.6
40	10	Lucas Taraszkiewicz	Flat Rock	44.8
41	9	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	45.7
42	9	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	46.6
43	11	Nathan Vargo	Flat Rock	46.9
44	12	Trevor Dornbos	Grandville Calvin Christian	47.0
45	10	Robert Dykhouse	Manton	47.7
46	12	Andrew Klaus	Clare	48.6
47	10	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	49.2
48	11	Owen Read	Traverse City St. Francis	49.7
49	11	Robby Myler	Traverse City St. Francis	51.1
50	10	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm	52.0
51	12	Alex Czeiszperger	Hudson	55.3
52	11	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	56.2
53	12	Bailey Wiggins	Midland Bullock Creek	56.8
54	10	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids	59.4
55	12	Ezra Hagedorn	Wyoming Potter’s House	61.0
56	9	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	61.2
57	11	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	61.7
58	11	Luke Dykstra	GR Covenant Christian	62.4
59	9	Cole Hillegonds	Clinton	62.8
60	9	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River	62.8
61	11	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	64.7
62	11	Cade Truemner	EPBP Laker	64.7
63	11	Miingen Bertrand	Ithaca	64.8
64	11	Brayden Sweeney	Midland Bullock Creek	65.6
65	12	Drew Moore	Grayling	67.2
66	11	Dante Pillot	Schoolcraft	67.6
67	12	Hunter Helminski	Saranac	69.3
68	12	Anthony Urbaniak	Charyl Stockwell Academy	70.9
69	12	Conner Fountain	Olivet	72.5
70	10	Grant Johnson	Manchester	72.8
71	12	Lincoln Cha	Ann Arbor Greenhills	73.7
72	11	Tristan Demlow	Grayling	73.9
73	9	Luke Herron	Caro	74.1
74	10	Julian Walker	Algonac	75.8
75	11	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	77.4
76	12	Nic Porter	Clare	78.6
77	10	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille	79.9
78	10	John Edler	Homer	80.0
79	11	Ian Waddell	Blissfield	80.5
80	11	Luke Skidmore	Bath	81.4
81	10	Zach Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	84.7
82	9	River Fox	Bath	86.9
83	12	Andrew Koenigsknecht	Bath	87.2
84	11	Clay Powell	Ovid-Elsie	88.0
85	11	Gabe Manchester	Clinton	88.7
86	11	Austin Sulier	Erie Mason	90.5
87	11	Sam Muirhead	Pewamo-Westphalia	90.8
88	10	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville	92.8
89	12	Grant Koole	GR Covenant Christian	93.5
90	9	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	93.6
91	12	Lucas Goodman	Clinton	94.4
92	10	Jack Slotman	Hart	97.1
93	11	Parker Campbell	Erie Mason	97.2
94	10	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	97.4
95	10	Jayden Fox	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	102.1
96	11	Max Stitt	Hart	102.4
97	12	Adam Williams	Kalkaska	102.9
98	12	Owen Brown	Hanover-Horton	103.3
99	12	Tanner Soelberg	Shelby	104.2
100	12	Noah Finton	Wyoming Potter’s House	105.1

When June came and passed, I (and maybe many) wondered if there’d ever be another Hunter Jones. Well, we didn’t have to wait long for the answer, as Bobby Jazwinski is putting up the same kind of numbers that Hunter did as a freshman. Opening with a 15:48 at Benzie, continuing to multiple 15:3x efforts and even faster. Of course, when anyone freshman bursts onto the scene, there are seniors looking to hold them off, and Collin Farmer has done the best of the bunch. Head-to-head, Farmer has won, with a narrow victory at Bluejay, then a significant margin at Portage. This begs the question that the ratings attempt to capture: were those two matchups an example of the differing speeds of the two or was it a combination of Jazwinski having poor races/Farmer having great races? We’ll find out on Saturday.