Peering at the weather, it’s about as ideal as you’ll get for MIS. A slight negative may be a tiny headwind in the finishing stretch, but it appears to be similar to 2023’s fast racing environment. Last year’s adjustments hovered around +20, which would make the projected 30th place times:
Obviously, heed your coach’s strategy over these times. And if the weather suddenly turns horrific, block these out of your memory. These are all a prediction that I’m posting beforehand.
Expected Outcomes
If I told you that the Detroit Lions had a 51% chance of beating Green Bay and a 51% chance of beating Houston, the expectation would be that they’d win one game. Yes, they’re favorites in both, but 0.51 + 0.51 add up to 1.02, which is much closer to 1 than 2.
With odds given to winners and the podium, I don’t expect to be completely correct on all teams. We saw this in the regional setting, where the expectation was that I’d predict 198 of the 216 teams (and I was correct on 197 of them). If I had predicted less, perhaps I’d need to increase the uncertainty, if I was correct on all 216, then I was giving higher odds to underdogs than needed.
Anyhow, adding the percentages of the projected winners, I’m expected to be correct on 7 of the 8 winning teams. Where will that upset come from?
For the podium teams, those percentages add up to 13.6, so I’m expecting to be wrong on 2-3 trophy hoisting teams.
Looking Back to Summer
The reason I write the summer previews is I want cross country on your mind for as long a time as possible. But I better be accurate in it. 2018, I’ll throw out ‘cause I didn’t know what I was doing, but from 2019 on, I’ve been at 23/40 in predicting the state champion.
2024’s Summer Preview had:
Division 1 Boys: Northville Division 2 Boys: Allendale Division 3 Boys: Traverse City St. Francis Division 4 Boys: Hillsdale Academy
I just want to stay above .500! Can you throw me a bone?
In Closing
I’ll see you all tomorrow. I’ll be helping in handing out All-State certificates with my fellow MITCA members. When not near the awards, I’ll be sauntering around, kissing babies, and shaking hands. I’ll be wearing the unofficial Speed Ratings shirt (now on its third iteration, one lost to a basement flood, the last one must’ve been left in my hotel room in Grand Rapids). If you see me, say hi, and please don’t be hurt if I take a second to recognize you. This brain is fried, but ready to enjoy a great day in celebration of the best sport in the world.
The creative writing juices tapped out after months of writing, this is titled projections instead of preview. Previous iterations of these have had me writing until the wee hours of the night. I want to be my happy self on Saturday, so I’m gonna rely on the narratives written throughout the season and a few paragraphs here.
Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?
Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
Tanner Time
Tanner Rating
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev.
15:30
210
15:45
205
16:00
200
16:15
195
16:30
190
200
7.91
MIXCSR Time
MIXCSR Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev.
16:09
197
16:12
196
16:15
195
16:18
194
16:21
193
195
1.58
Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
Race
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev
Tanner Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev
MIXCSR Rating
1
200
7.9
202.1
195
1.6
195.6
2
200
7.9
196.2
195
1.6
194.1
3
200
7.9
190.0
195
1.6
199.2
4
200
7.9
193.4
195
1.6
192.5
5
200
7.9
206.8
195
1.6
195.7
6
200
7.9
201.8
195
1.6
196.1
7
200
7.9
171.6
195
1.6
194.9
8
200
7.9
189.2
195
1.6
195.9
9
200
7.9
205.5
195
1.6
197.0
10
200
7.9
203.8
195
1.6
192.6
11
200
7.9
192.3
195
1.6
196.5
12
200
7.9
196.9
195
1.6
196.4
13
200
7.9
198.5
195
1.6
195.6
14
200
7.9
203.2
195
1.6
194.1
15
200
7.9
193.9
195
1.6
192.6
16
200
7.9
199.3
195
1.6
193.2
17
200
7.9
208.7
195
1.6
194.2
18
200
7.9
213.7
195
1.6
194.6
19
200
7.9
212.6
195
1.6
197.1
20
200
7.9
206.3
195
1.6
193.9
I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:
Projected Place – sorted from lowest projected score to highest projected score Projected Score – the average score across all the simulated races Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2 Top 10 % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10
BOYS TEAM
Now three years runnin’, the class of Michigan. Northville, never complacent with their stature, looking to make it to a three-peat. The past formula has been overwhelming depth and that’s the case yet again. Throughout this 2024 season, the Mustangs have found five guys with sub-16’s to their name, the 6th and 7th are close behind. This speed has led to scenarios such as Spartan, where Northville placed all scorers in the top-20 and Portage, with all five in the top-30. Both were victories, but the Portage margin was a bit smaller.
Thanks to a Jenison team that wants to claim a podium spot. Seth Conner is a true low-stick and the Wildcats have three others in the sub-16 range or faster. Brighton didn’t have quite as great of a day in early October, though the Bulldogs made up for it in the KLAA Championships. The usually tough Bennett Park course ran a little fast and Brighton was able to take advantage, throwing across four guys quicker than 16:15.
The typical Mustang strategy is to sit and let the race come to them, then pounce in the final mile. Expect some tense live result viewing.
Projected Place
Team
Projected Score
Range
Win %
Podium %
Top-10 %
1
Northville
69
1st-2nd
95+
95+
95+
2
Jenison
181
2nd-4th
51
95+
3
Brighton
186
2nd-5th
48
95+
4
Livonia Churchill
246
3rd-8th
95+
5
Kalamazoo Central
252
3rd-10th
95+
6
Grand Haven
260
3rd-9th
95+
7
Saline
265
4th-9th
95+
8
Clarkston
276
4th-11th
95+
9
Plymouth
309
6th-14th
69
10
Ann Arbor Pioneer
338
9th-15th
30
11
East Kentwood
343
8th-17th
25
12
Forest Hills Central
344
9th-17th
27
13
Oxford
346
8th-18th
18
14
Traverse City Central
349
8th-18th
21
15
Okemos
377
9th-20th
5
16
Highland-Milford
378
9th-19th
10
17
Utica
382
11th-19th
18
White Lake Lakeland
386
11th-20th
19
Midland
442
17th-24th
20
Macomb Dakota
443
15th-23rd
21
Rockford
474
19th-25th
22
Dexter
485
17th-26th
23
Lake Orion
488
18th-26th
24
Romeo
523
19th-27th
25
Detroit Catholic Central
562
23rd-27th
26
Temperance Bedford
569
23rd-27th
27
Ann Arbor Skyline
612
25th-27th
GIRLS TEAM
We’re so blessed to be treated with such elite teams. All year, both Romeo and Holland West Ottawa have been ranked in the nation’s top-20.
At last year’s state finals, the Bulldogs were able to place all scorers in the top-50 and under 19-flat. Returning their top-six, coming off a track season with five girls sub-11 in the 3200m, the Bulldogs came into the season as heavy favorites. Their racing schedule planned with great intention; Romeo has pounced on every opportunity to race with vigor. At Jackson, this was six in the top-20. At Portage, this manifested in a 100+ point win. At Macomb County, they were (I believe) the first girls team since ’96 Stevenson to score a perfect 15.
One thing I’ve appreciated is that with all those accolades, Romeo everywhere you turn, West Ottawa is just won’t lay down. Coming off a track state final with Panther prints all over the track, West Ottawa went to work in providing their best challenge. The result of all that work is a crew of 11 girls that have slipped under 20:00 (with 12 riiight there!). A mix of newcomers, development, and a favorite comeback story. Rising tides such as West Ottawa lift all boats.
Projected Place
Team
Projected Score
Range
Win %
Podium %
Top-10 %
1
Romeo
69
1st-2nd
95+
95+
95+
2
Holland West Ottawa
114
1st-3rd
95+
95+
3
Saline
168
3rd-5th
95+
4
Brighton
181
3rd-7th
95+
5
Ann Arbor Pioneer
206
4th-6th
95+
6
Rochester
246
5th-7th
95+
7
Rockford
307
7th-11th
93
8
Traverse City West
317
6th-12th
73
9
Midland Dow
336
7th-15th
54
10
Grand Haven
338
7th-14th
69
11
Okemos
347
7th-16th
48
12
Jenison
361
6th-18th
35
13
Portage Central
375
9th-16th
11
14
Northville
399
10th-19th
9
15
Rochester Adams
403
10th-20th
4
16
Utica
405
10th-18th
4
17
White Lake Lakeland
429
14th-20th
18
Hartland
450
15th-20th
19
Dexter
461
12th-22nd
20
Ann Arbor Skyline
463
17th-21st
21
Ann Arbor Huron
527
19th-24th
22
GR Ottawa Hills
548
20th-26th
23
Farmington
573
21st-27th
24
Fraser
577
21st-27th
25
Forest Hills Northern
578
21st-28th
26
Novi
597
21st-28th
27
Woodhaven Brownstown
627
23rd-29th
28
Clarkston
646
24th-29th
29
Royal Oak
716
28th-29th
BOYS INDIVIDUAL
This D1 race looks to be one of the more intriguing ones of the day. Kyle O’Rourke has headed the rankings all year. He’s gotten it done on a variety of terrains and settings. Wins on his home course early and in championship season. A rare Milford trip to Jackson saw him pull away mid-race from the best in the state, comfortably winning in 15:08.
There will be challengers, those of which he didn’t see at Jackson. Pioneer typically travels west to that superb course, though Kamari Ronfeldt waited a bit later to debut. A little over a week past his debut, Kamari toed the line against Jenison’s Seth Conner. Portage bore witness to a regular season race for the ages, Conner opening up a gap late, Ronfeldt finding just enough real estate to come back for the win.
Given the various, differing strategies of these three (plus a mix of patience and daring front-running from other competitors), this is probably the strategic race of the day.
Projected Place
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Kyle O’Rourke
Highland-Milford
2.3
2
10
Kamari Ronfeldt
Ann Arbor Pioneer
2.6
3
11
Aiden Pengelly
Canton
4.0
4
12
Seth Conner
Jenison
5.0
5
12
Carter Livermore
Grandville
5.1
6
10
Jack MacGregor
Howell
6.7
7
12
Ethan Powell
Northville
7.6
8
12
Joseph Rohmfeld
Livonia Churchill
10.1
9
11
Jackson Lam
Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
10.5
10
12
Alexander McArthur
Oxford
10.6
11
11
Ben Hartigan
Northville
12.0
12
12
Tyler Brock
Brighton
15.0
13
10
Luka Hammond
Grand Haven
16.1
14
12
Taye Levenson
Bloomfield Hills
16.1
15
11
Beckett Crooks
Ann Arbor Pioneer
16.1
16
12
Kian Schneeweis
Troy
21.3
17
12
Ben Eisnor
Grand Haven
23.3
18
12
James Cusick
Oxford
24.2
19
11
Ian Morgan
Okemos
24.7
20
10
Brandon Cloud
Northville
25.3
21
12
Nick Barretto
Northville
25.4
22
10
Samuel Baker
Kalamazoo Central
25.8
23
12
Ishaan Kundapur
Northville
27.9
24
12
Julian Linebaugh
Dexter
28.4
25
11
Ryan Barnes
Clarkston
29.3
26
11
Harper Wesley
Utica
29.5
27
10
Ben Romero
Forest Hills Central
29.9
28
12
Lucas LaMilza
Macomb Dakota
32.1
29
10
Caden Livermore
Grandville
32.5
30
11
Aron Gal
Grand Haven
34.1
31
12
Chase Wolters
Livonia Churchill
34.5
32
12
Kort Thompson
Caledonia
34.9
33
11
Caleb Keller
Traverse City Central
35.9
34
12
Mason Lucas
Jenison
38.7
35
12
Cayden DeGrendel
Clarkston
39.0
36
12
Sawyer McCarthy
Forest Hills Central
41.7
37
11
Andrew Wright
Kalamazoo Central
41.9
38
12
Parker Strelecki
Jenison
42.6
39
12
James Latstetter
Flushing
42.9
40
10
Jacob Szalay
Saline
43.7
41
12
Luke Morehouse
Utica
46.0
42
12
Mitchell Jeruzal
Byron Center
46.8
43
12
Isaac Tanis
East Kentwood
47.0
44
12
Lucas Wood
Howell
48.6
45
11
Nate Linden
Troy Athens
49.0
46
11
Lucas LaPointe
Plymouth
49.3
47
12
Jack Chadwick
Plymouth
52.4
48
12
Spencer Parker
Portage Central
52.9
49
11
Benjamin Rottier
Grand Ledge
53.3
50
12
Matthew Schwartz
Jenison
53.8
51
11
Brennan LaRusso
Saline
55.1
52
12
Evan Nickoles
East Kentwood
55.7
53
9
Gavin Katic
Fenton
57.0
54
12
Jacob Essenmacher
Lapeer
57.1
55
12
Malcolm Speigle
Livonia Churchill
57.5
56
12
Tyler Outlaw
Brighton
58.9
57
12
Drew Abbott
Detroit Catholic Central
59.3
58
11
Zach Wyderko
Brighton
59.7
59
12
Brady Millington
Brighton
62.2
60
11
Ethan Hertza
Northville
63.0
61
10
Blake Kulesza
Brighton
63.2
62
12
Ben Mussen
Plymouth
65.3
63
10
Justin Johnson
East Kentwood
67.3
64
11
Max Houvener
Lake Orion
67.6
65
11
Steven Dusseau
Canton
72.5
66
12
Jaxson Nowik
Clarkston
72.8
67
11
Pierce Scheffler
Woodhaven Brownstown
74.2
68
12
Collin McLaughlin
Rochester
74.3
69
12
Joseph Spada
Kalamazoo Central
76.0
70
9
Alexander Allen
Alpena
76.2
71
12
Noah Schuette
Rockford
77.1
72
12
Saman Meshinchi
Saline
77.1
73
11
Owen Fisher
Mattawan
78.1
74
12
Blake Peardon
Lake Orion
80.6
75
11
David Dubeck
Clarkston
80.8
76
12
Maxton Myrand
Oxford
80.9
77
11
Evan Owczarek
Rochester
81.4
78
12
Caleb Snyder
Dexter
82.7
79
12
Ian Boss
Traverse City Central
82.8
80
11
Jack Steen
Traverse City Central
83.3
81
11
Adrian Clarke
Plymouth
83.4
82
12
Walker Brose
Ann Arbor Huron
84.5
83
11
Dylan Pascoe
Rochester
85.0
84
11
Gavin Johns
White Lake Lakeland
85.3
85
11
Nicolas Morales-Sanchez
Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
86.8
86
11
Theo Sacks-Thomas
Ann Arbor Pioneer
86.9
87
11
Ty Billings
Kalamazoo Central
87.4
88
12
Gavin Frandle
Utica
91.8
89
9
Mourad Algahmi
Dearborn Fordson
91.9
90
11
Andrew Worsley
Midland
92.3
91
10
Cameron Varner
Temperance Bedford
94.2
92
12
Logan Gehoski
Bay City Western
95.1
93
11
Bastien Beaubien
Highland-Milford
97.5
94
12
Collin Eckermann
Saline
97.6
95
11
James Brickel
Romeo
98.0
96
11
Keagan Smith
Zeeland West
98.7
97
12
Matthew Verellen
White Lake Lakeland
99.9
98
10
Cameron Cochran
Midland
100.7
99
10
Musa Kay
West Bloomfield
102.8
100
11
Dane Hieronimus
Temperance Bedford
104.1
GIRLS INDIVIDUAL
The boys race has intrigue from many angles, this girls race is the climactic capper, the elite race of the day. Helen Sachs and Victoria Garces.
As the rest of us were wiping our eyes, getting acquainted with the new season, Helen was ripping the bandage off and shooting to a sub-17. Her Under the Lights performance was a precursor to a season full of wins. Every race – OK Red, down in Indiana, Otsego Bulldog, Portage. Typically quick too, sub-17’s on three occasions.
Victoria Garces was a bit more judicious in her scheduling, though very aggressive in her racing. Just as Sachs, she wasted no time in getting up to speed, winning in Cadillac in 17:17. She too is unbeaten with sub-17’s to her name. Two of ‘em, both very recently.
The two haven’t locked heads on the cross course, but we can look back to track to see how they might compare. In early June’s D1 State Final, Garces finished just ahead of Sachs in both the 1600m and 3200m. You have to take that in the context of the day, as Sachs already had a strenuous 800m in her legs. These two will be extremely close and this race will be a great way to end our 2024 season.
The creative writing juices tapped out after months of writing, this is titled projections instead of preview. Previous iterations of these have had me writing until the wee hours of the night. I want to be my happy self on Saturday, so I’m gonna rely on the narratives written throughout the season and a few paragraphs here.
Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?
Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
Tanner Time
Tanner Rating
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev.
15:30
210
15:45
205
16:00
200
16:15
195
16:30
190
200
7.91
MIXCSR Time
MIXCSR Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev.
16:09
197
16:12
196
16:15
195
16:18
194
16:21
193
195
1.58
Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
Race
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev
Tanner Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev
MIXCSR Rating
1
200
7.9
202.1
195
1.6
195.6
2
200
7.9
196.2
195
1.6
194.1
3
200
7.9
190.0
195
1.6
199.2
4
200
7.9
193.4
195
1.6
192.5
5
200
7.9
206.8
195
1.6
195.7
6
200
7.9
201.8
195
1.6
196.1
7
200
7.9
171.6
195
1.6
194.9
8
200
7.9
189.2
195
1.6
195.9
9
200
7.9
205.5
195
1.6
197.0
10
200
7.9
203.8
195
1.6
192.6
11
200
7.9
192.3
195
1.6
196.5
12
200
7.9
196.9
195
1.6
196.4
13
200
7.9
198.5
195
1.6
195.6
14
200
7.9
203.2
195
1.6
194.1
15
200
7.9
193.9
195
1.6
192.6
16
200
7.9
199.3
195
1.6
193.2
17
200
7.9
208.7
195
1.6
194.2
18
200
7.9
213.7
195
1.6
194.6
19
200
7.9
212.6
195
1.6
197.1
20
200
7.9
206.3
195
1.6
193.9
I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:
Projected Place – sorted from lowest projected score to highest projected score Projected Score – the average score across all the simulated races Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2 Top 10 % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10
BOYS TEAM
Place significant goals out in the world, work to nail those goals, then reap the consequences. Allendale’s Falcons made it be known that they were shooting for six under 16:00. Their grind apparent, posted for the state to see. Here in 2024, Allendale has brought forth five kids that’ve shot into the 15’s, a sixth extremely close behind. That formula will win in most divisions and has been dominant in D2, where the Falcons have won at Spartan and Portage with considerable margins.
Grand Rapids Christian looks to be the favorite to grab the runner-up trophy and other podium spot. The Eagles are a consistent D2 presence and this year is no different, the baby blue kids placing 2nd at Portage with five under 16:40. They’re joined by a few other West Side schools such as Holland Christian and Forest Hills Eastern, along with a young Alma team.
Projected Place
Team
Projected Score
Range
Win %
Podium %
Top-10 %
1
Allendale
105
1st-2nd
95+
95+
95+
2
Grand Rapids Christian
174
2nd-4th
77
95+
3
Holland Christian
207
2nd-6th
11
95+
4
Alma
211
2nd-7th
6
95+
5
Forest Hills Eastern
216
2nd-7th
5
95+
6
East Grand Rapids
226
3rd-7th
95+
7
Frankenmuth
261
5th-10th
95+
8
Marshall
284
7th-11th
95+
9
Otsego
301
7th-13th
75
10
Shepherd
313
8th-13th
75
11
Gladwin
335
8th-13th
21
12
Cedar Springs
350
9th-16th
16
13
Freeland
374
10th-19th
6
14
Pinckney
377
9th-20th
8
15
DeWitt
390
11th-19th
16
GR Catholic Central
392
13th-19th
17
Three Rivers
398
12th-20th
18
New Boston Huron
405
13th-19th
19
Fremont
409
12th-20th
20
Parma Western
477
19th-22nd
21
Adrian
518
20th-24th
22
Detroit Country Day
521
20th-25th
23
Chelsea
524
20th-25th
24
Dearborn Divine Child
551
21st-26th
25
Macomb Lutheran North
564
23rd-26th
26
Yale
630
26th-27th
27
St. Clair
641
25th-27th
GIRLS TEAM
The Martians entered the year as the favorite. They’ve had some hiccups along the way, sickness, poor races on the wrong occasion. But just as last year, they’ve found their best material late in the year. Late September at Bluejay is when the Blue n’ Yellow began to turn a new leaf. Five under 19:40, the girls were able to go against D1’s best and win. At Greater Flint and Region 15, depth came through in even more droves, each featuring all seven girls under 20-flat.
Coming into the season, the Chix from Zeeland East were not projected as highly. Projections miss one thing – work in the offseason, and it’s readily apparent that these girls sacrificed all summer. Their junior depth has all dropped considerable time from 2023 and Emma Drnek is reliable as they come. Mix in a freshman that’s been dropping time at every opportunity and you’ve got a team that wins in elite fields such as Portage.
The two teams employ differing methods in their victories. Goodrich relies more on depth and the ability for anyone to step up, Zeeland East is stronger up front.
If there is a chance at a podium upset, the patient DeWitt and the defending champs, Grand Rapids Christian will happily take it.
Projected Place
Team
Projected Score
Range
Win %
Podium %
Top-10 %
1
Goodrich
131
1st-3rd
52
95+
95+
2
Zeeland East
132
1st-4th
46
91
95+
3
Grand Rapids Christian
178
2nd-5th
5
95+
4
DeWitt
196
2nd-6th
7
95+
5
Holland Christian
204
3rd-6th
95+
6
Otsego
219
3rd-7th
95+
7
East Grand Rapids
280
6th-10th
95+
8
Adrian
283
6th-9th
95+
9
Freeland
299
7th-11th
94
10
Hudsonville Unity Christian
325
8th-12th
51
11
Ludington
334
7th-14th
38
12
Spring Lake
356
10th-14th
8
13
Cadillac
379
7th-16th
10
14
GR South Christian
406
12th-18th
15
Frankenmuth
419
12th-19th
16
Sturgis
433
13th-18th
17
Ann Arbor Fr Gabriel Richard
465
15th-21st
18
St. Johns
472
15th-24th
19
Pinckney
474
15th-22nd
20
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
509
17th-25th
21
St. Joseph
511
17th-25th
22
Williamston
515
17th-25th
23
Dearborn Divine Child
516
17th-25th
24
Carleton Airport
522
17th-26th
25
Chelsea
563
22nd-27th
26
Macomb Lutheran North
612
25th-28th
27
Croswell-Lexington
633
26th-28th
28
St. Clair
654
25th-28th
BOYS INDIVIDUAL
The lone returning champion. Last fall, TJ Hansen used a dastardly strong final 1.1 miles (10 seconds faster over that stretch than anyone, all day) to open up a large gap on his D2 competition. Throughout his career, both in Michigan and on the national scene, he’s employed those tactics. Just as great defense and pitching travel well, so does even pacing on the biggest stages.
In Division 1’s 2023 title race, we saw a first – sub-15 NOT winning. It’s a very real possibility that could happen again, as Jack Bidwell has shown the ability to challenge 9-flat on the track and bust through into the 14’s on the cross course. The recent Michigan commit has a 14:56 on his resume, and perhaps even more impressive, a 15:28 on a hot day at Spartan.
Projected Place
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
TJ Hansen
Freeland
1.1
2
12
Jack Bidwell
Marshall
2.7
3
12
Henry Dixon
Forest Hills Eastern
3.9
4
12
Colin Murray
Dearborn Divine Child
4.9
5
11
Jonah Workman
East Grand Rapids
8.7
6
12
Jeb Hillary
GR Catholic Central
9.4
7
12
Simon Triezenberg
Grand Rapids Christian
10.6
8
11
Edison Lopeman
Parma Western
10.6
9
12
Dominic Lowrie
Battle Creek Harper Creek
12.0
10
12
Will Engbers
Holland Christian
12.2
11
12
Kilian Whalen
Allendale
13.5
12
10
Ezekiel Baltierra
Alma
14.5
13
12
Elijah Christensen
Gladwin
16.1
14
11
Moises Salazar
Adrian
16.1
15
11
Thomas Larson
Alma
17.8
16
11
Ronnie Silveira
Allendale
19.0
17
11
Bryce Gross
Flint Powers Catholic
19.3
18
9
Lennox Naswell
Flint Powers Catholic
19.9
19
11
Vincent Pattison
Goodrich
20.3
20
10
Bryce Cahoon
Shepherd
22.7
21
12
Sullivan Zietlow
Three Rivers
23.0
22
10
Abraham McHugh
Marshall
23.0
23
12
Dylan Lydic
Haslett
23.9
24
12
Nolan Longuski
Shepherd
24.2
25
12
Jack Lillywhite
Flint Kearsley
25.5
26
12
Ben Gross
Allendale
27.4
27
12
Lucas Kuhn
New Boston Huron
27.8
28
12
Seth Mead
Gladwin
28.2
29
12
Abatu Dykstra
Hamilton
28.6
30
10
Steven Zawacki
Forest Hills Eastern
33.6
31
10
Cole McCraw
Pinckney
33.7
32
12
Alex Doneth
Mason
34.1
33
12
Jacob Draaisma
Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg
35.0
34
11
Owen Metzger
Sparta
36.0
35
10
Mitchell Dunlap
GR Catholic Central
39.2
36
12
Parker Tiethof
Allendale
41.4
37
10
Mason Hill
Allendale
42.1
38
12
Vincent Pollock
Fruitport
42.4
39
12
Stewart Waters
Whitehall
42.6
40
12
Andrew Commeret
Comstock Park
43.1
41
11
Donovan Ryan
Plainwell
44.5
42
11
Sean Ryan
Grand Rapids Christian
44.9
43
12
Reece Davis
Marshall
45.7
44
11
Jack Edison
East Grand Rapids
46.2
45
9
Micah Becker
East Grand Rapids
47.6
46
10
Caiden Caswell
Vicksburg
48.0
47
12
Nolan Inglis
DeWitt
49.7
48
11
Luke Dulecki
New Boston Huron
50.0
49
11
Brett Magnus
Frankenmuth
52.5
50
12
Keegan Hoekstra
Grand Rapids Christian
52.9
51
9
Duncan Palmer
Williamston
54.8
52
11
Ethan Shoffner
Cedar Springs
55.3
53
12
Will Whitmore
Holland Christian
55.6
54
11
Jeryn Frisbie
Belding
57.9
55
12
Carter Sherman
Fremont
59.3
56
12
Holten Mulherin
Otsego
60.9
57
10
Joshua Macri
Macomb Lutheran North
62.1
58
12
Justin Bradford
Sparta
63.0
59
12
Noah Hernandez
Hamilton
64.0
60
12
Simon Erfourth
Owosso
64.2
61
11
George Scupham
Edwardsburg
64.3
62
10
Nicklas Parker
Frankenmuth
64.8
63
12
Owen Saylor
Dowagiac Union
65.0
64
12
Eli Johansen
St. Joseph
66.9
65
10
Ryan Good
Parma Western
67.8
66
12
Hayden Gould
Big Rapids
68.1
67
11
Cole Wisniewski
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
68.1
68
11
Landon Gerritsma
Holland Christian
69.8
69
12
Brandon Simmons
Hastings
70.4
70
12
Caden Guffey
Zeeland East
70.9
71
12
Zachary Newman
Pinckney
71.6
72
11
Jack Estelle
Hopkins
71.8
73
12
Isaak Rubley
Dundee
72.7
74
12
Dylan Pallett
Wayland Union
74.0
75
11
Micah Small
Grand Rapids Christian
76.5
76
12
Conner McCormick
Mason
79.1
77
11
Aden Ashworth
Allendale
80.3
78
12
Bobby Donley
Corunna
81.3
79
12
Ethan Sellers
Flint Kearsley
81.9
80
10
Seth Betzold
Essexville Garber
82.8
81
11
Ben Verellen
Gladwin
83.3
82
11
Asher Jager
GR West Mich. Aviation
83.5
83
11
Reagan Ward
St. Johns
84.6
84
11
Elijah Baltierra
Alma
85.2
85
12
Nolan Park
Sturgis
86.5
86
11
Shephard Bower
Forest Hills Eastern
88.8
87
12
Cougar Clark
Frankenmuth
90.8
88
11
Kenny Sheffer
Otsego
91.4
89
12
Jackson Walthorn
DeWitt
91.5
90
12
Jacob Hopkins
Detroit Country Day
91.8
91
11
Anthony Plana
Frankenmuth
91.9
92
9
Ashton Fink
Grand Rapids Christian
93.0
93
10
Omar Elbashir
Detroit Country Day
93.4
94
12
Aidan Brinks
Holland Christian
96.2
95
10
Kevin Terpstra
Alma
96.5
96
11
Cooper Gardner
Battle Creek Harper Creek
96.5
97
12
Peyton Ruel
Muskegon Oakridge
98.4
98
12
Isaak Brook
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
98.4
99
12
Tyler Endres
Forest Hills Eastern
98.7
100
12
Sam Downing
Zeeland East
99.2
GIRLS INDIVIDUAL
Coming out of the gates on fire and with a purpose was Emma Hoffman. The Otsego Bulldog, already well accomplished in her career (2nd here in 2022), wanted more. Having embraced an uptick in training and intensity, she found herself in uncharted waters early in the year. Busting rust early, she was able to slip under 18:00. When time came to run fast, that was overwhelmingly accomplished, as she now sports a personal best of 17:22. And all throughout have been wins – Spartan, Otsego Bulldog, Region 13.
I’ve written this a thousand times, I’d only do that if it were true, Ava Schafer races beyond her years. In last year’s Finals, she moved up from 10th at the mile to 6th at two, eventually crossing the line in 4th. The same strategy was applied in track’s 3200m Final, as Ava hung back the first few laps before winning the D2 title. She too has won all year – Greater Lansing, CAAC Red, Region 14.
Each are unbeaten on the year and have experience in races of this magnitude.
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 