Boys
Team Projections


Individual Projections

Girls
Team Projections


Individual Projections

Cross Country from a Numerical Perspective






Boys Adjustment: -22
Girls Adjustment: -48
| 11 | Zachary Curd | Fowlerville | 187.8 |
| 12 | Adam Foreman | Marshall | 179.8 |
| 11 | Josh Maurer | Battle Creek Harper … | 178.3 |
| 11 | Tyler Perras | Fowlerville | 170.7 |
| 11 | Liam Harlan | Bath | 167.1 |
| 11 | Owen Gilbert | Battle Creek Harper … | 166.2 |
| 12 | Titus Bretzke | Greenville | 166.0 |
| 10 | Cameron Pierce | Leslie | 165.8 |
| 10 | Daniel Thomas | Capital Homeschool | 164.6 |
| 12 | Aaron Amidon | Greenville | 162.4 |
| 11 | Tyler Hile | Leslie | 159.8 |
| 10 | Brett Marschall | Fowlerville | 157.9 |
| 12 | Lucas Woodruff | Laingsburg | 155.7 |
| 12 | Gabe Weber | Leslie | 155.7 |
| 9 | Jesse Carson | Capital Homeschool | 150.6 |
| 12 | Ethan Smith | Perry | 150.3 |
| 9 | Brian O’Dell | Battle Creek Harper … | 147.9 |
| 12 | Boaz Trudell | Marshall | 146.0 |
| 9 | Liam Kuhlmann | Capital Homeschool | 142.8 |
| 10 | Ethan Lubahn | Leslie | 142.5 |
| 11 | Blake Bess | Battle Creek Harper … | 139.8 |
| 12 | Alexander Hundt | Capital Homeschool | 137.5 |
| 9 | Logan Zahn | Capital Homeschool | 137.0 |
| 12 | Benjamin Hinkley | Perry | 136.6 |
| 9 | Owen Vanderwey | Capital Homeschool | 135.3 |
| 12 | Gavin Weber | Leslie | 135.2 |
| 12 | Trevor Peterson | Fowlerville | 133.7 |
| 12 | Grant Weber | Leslie | 132.1 |
| 11 | Hunter Weller | Battle Creek Harper … | 130.9 |
| 9 | Andrew Koenigsknecht | Bath | 130.2 |
| 11 | Miguel Ramirez | Laingsburg | 129.9 |
| 11 | Brock Howard | Fowlerville | 129.0 |
| 12 | Dylan Thomas | Capital Homeschool | 128.2 |
| 10 | Samuel Torres | Battle Creek Harper … | 127.1 |
| 12 | Dylan Ward | Capital Homeschool | 125.3 |
| 12 | Hunter Ward | Fowler | 123.3 |
| 12 | Joey Rattay | Fulton | 123.0 |
| 10 | Benjamin Showerman | Fowlerville | 122.6 |
| 11 | Dakota Foster | Battle Creek Harper … | 122.0 |
| 11 | Nolan Gregg | Laingsburg | 120.9 |
| 9 | Connor Griffith | Marshall | 120.5 |
| 11 | Blain Wilson | Marshall | 120.1 |
| 11 | Isaac Culp | Marshall | 119.8 |
| 11 | Donovan Cook | East Jackson | 118.4 |
| 12 | Troy Barber | Perry | 116.4 |
| 12 | Lucas Mooney | Leslie | 115.3 |
| 12 | Ayden Rutan | Leslie | 115.2 |
| 10 | Morgan Harman | Fowlerville | 112.0 |
| 11 | Alex Costa | Marshall | 111.7 |
| 11 | Adam Dunn | Marshall | 108.0 |
| 11 | Caleb Clark | Laingsburg | 107.9 |
| 9 | Aidan McPartlin | Marshall | 106.6 |
| 12 | Charlie Weinheimer | Greenville | 103.9 |
| 12 | Bryce Trimm | Battle Creek Harper … | 98.5 |
| 11 | Bronson Bess | Battle Creek Harper … | 96.4 |
| 12 | Kaleb Green | Marshall | 92.9 |
| 9 | Dano Winans | Laingsburg | 90.9 |
| 9 | Michael Allen | East Jackson | 87.7 |
| 11 | Jagger Sullivan | Bath | 85.8 |
| 11 | Jacob Radamacher | Fowler | 85.0 |
| 10 | Nathaniel Cochrane | Perry | 84.4 |
| 10 | Sawyer Shastal | Laingsburg | 83.7 |
| 9 | Trevor Feldpausch | Fowler | 83.6 |
| 10 | Lucas Goodall | Greenville | 82.7 |
| 12 | Dominic Horak | Fowler | 82.6 |
| 10 | Wyatt Szarejko | Battle Creek Harper … | 81.7 |
| 10 | Justin LaFleur | Battle Creek Harper … | 78.8 |
| 10 | Hunter Back | Leslie | 77.2 |
| 10 | Liam O’Hare | Fowler | 74.9 |
| 9 | Carter Holmes | Bath | 72.4 |
| 9 | Micah Morehouse | Marshall | 71.3 |
| 11 | Noah Miller | Fowlerville | 70.6 |
| 10 | Aden Baynes | Laingsburg | 70.4 |
| 11 | Oliver Sullivan | Greenville | 70.2 |
| 12 | Charlie Mercer | Capital Homeschool | 69.3 |
| 10 | Alex Cleland | Capital Homeschool | 68.1 |
| 9 | Treysen Mead | Battle Creek Harper … | 67.5 |
| 9 | Garrett Mathews | Laingsburg | 67.1 |
| 12 | Korbin Dunham | Bath | 66.5 |
| 9 | Gavin Richards | Greenville | 62.0 |
| 10 | Hayden Vlasic | Bath | 61.3 |
| 9 | George Amidon | Greenville | 61.0 |
| 12 | Jeremiah Adams | East Jackson | 60.0 |
| 9 | Jackson Pollack | Capital Homeschool | 57.1 |
| 10 | Evan Rose | Fowlerville | 54.3 |
| 9 | Travis St Martin | Fowlerville | 53.7 |
| 9 | Javin Mericle | East Jackson | 49.9 |
| 10 | Austin Lamkin | Fulton | 48.0 |
| 10 | Shane Wilson | Bath | 47.8 |
| 10 | Everett Smith | Marshall | 47.7 |
| 12 | Austin McIntyre | Fulton | 47.2 |
| 9 | Robert Munden | Marshall | 40.4 |
| 10 | Colin Scheib | Bath | 40.1 |
| 10 | Korey Crawford | Bath | 38.7 |
| 11 | Connor DuBose | Leslie | 33.4 |
| 12 | Tyler Scanlan | Laingsburg | 26.9 |
| 12 | David Miller | Greenville | 26.5 |
| 11 | Cole Mason | Greenville | 25.8 |
| 9 | Jack VerHeek | Greenville | 24.0 |
| 9 | Jackson Lillirose | Marshall | 22.5 |
| 10 | Brad Dedic | Laingsburg | 18.1 |
| 11 | David Loomis | East Jackson | 17.1 |
| 10 | Jacob Simpson | Fulton | 13.9 |
| 12 | Tyler Lamkin | Fulton | 13.7 |
| 12 | Micah Garcia | Battle Creek Harper … | 13.5 |
| 9 | Logan Hile | Leslie | 13.0 |
| 9 | Liam Sullivan | Greenville | 11.0 |
| 11 | Aaron Norton | Leslie | 7.9 |
| 9 | Wyatt Stanfield | Laingsburg | 3.1 |
| 12 | Maliyah Alexander-… | Marshall | 124.3 |
| 10 | Madison Berning | Battle Creek Harper … | 115.4 |
| 11 | Libby Vanderwey | Capital Homeschool | 114.1 |
| 12 | Sarah Berning | Battle Creek Harper … | 112.3 |
| 12 | Haley Ellis | Leslie | 111.4 |
| 11 | Brooke Waito | Marshall | 107.7 |
| 12 | Anna Zacharski | Marshall | 101.9 |
| 12 | Jena Adams | Battle Creek Harper … | 101.3 |
| 10 | Shawn Brophy | Marshall | 100.1 |
| 9 | Camille DeCola | Marshall | 99.6 |
| 11 | Grace O’Neill | Perry | 92.8 |
| 12 | Lillian Copeland | Fowlerville | 91.8 |
| 10 | Lily Kogut | Capital Homeschool | 84.7 |
| 12 | Lily Robinson | Leslie | 80.9 |
| 12 | Abbie Schoepke | Marshall | 80.3 |
| 9 | Nicole Gale | Greenville | 79.2 |
| 11 | Ella Kloeckner | Perry | 78.9 |
| 12 | Joy Kogut | Capital Homeschool | 75.7 |
| 11 | Brenna Withers | Battle Creek Harper … | 75.6 |
| 12 | Sara Derrick | Bath | 74.9 |
| 10 | Avery Copeland | Fowlerville | 72.8 |
| 10 | Annie Beach | Fowlerville | 69.0 |
| 12 | Shaily Baynes | Laingsburg | 66.1 |
| 12 | Emma Cochrane | Perry | 66.1 |
| 11 | Karli Rzepka | Battle Creek Harper … | 63.6 |
| 10 | Grace Piggott | Fowler | 62.2 |
| 12 | Angie DeMass | Capital Homeschool | 59.9 |
| 10 | Zariah Harris | Marshall | 57.5 |
| 9 | Jaydan Courtright | Battle Creek Harper … | 56.2 |
| 9 | Kayla Creisher | Leslie | 56.2 |
| 11 | Emma Kribs | Laingsburg | 54.0 |
| 12 | Rachel Nimtz | Capital Homeschool | 51.8 |
| 10 | Bridget Crombie | Capital Homeschool | 47.5 |
| 12 | Kyleigh Mills | Greenville | 47.3 |
| 12 | Jahayza Choat | Leslie | 46.7 |
| 11 | Reagan Esch | Fowlerville | 44.4 |
| 10 | Alaina Borowy | Fowlerville | 44.3 |
| 9 | Alivia DeMass | Capital Homeschool | 44.0 |
| 9 | Olivia Ellenwood | Battle Creek Harper … | 43.0 |
| 10 | Rachel Epkey | Fowler | 41.9 |
| 9 | Eliza MacQuaig | Marshall | 40.2 |
| 11 | Gabby Damerow | Fowlerville | 39.1 |
| 11 | Molly Klemmer | Leslie | 34.0 |
| 11 | Jenna Gill | Fowlerville | 32.6 |
| 10 | Grace O’Hare | Fowler | 28.3 |
| 10 | Maggie Spencer | Capital Homeschool | 26.3 |
| 9 | Katie Behnke | Battle Creek Harper … | 25.1 |
| 10 | Lydia Austin | Capital Homeschool | 23.4 |
| 10 | Trisha Seiter | Fowlerville | 22.4 |
| 10 | Zoe Robinet | Greenville | 19.6 |
| 9 | Nora Longest | Greenville | 19.5 |
| 12 | Tammy Billingsly | Bath | 19.2 |
| 11 | Kady Stoddard | Leslie | 12.5 |
| 9 | Lucy Gench | Marshall | 9.3 |
| 11 | Reva Lance | Fowler | 6.4 |
| 12 | Rebecca Hundt | Capital Homeschool | 5.5 |
| 9 | Isabella Damerow | Fowlerville | 5.2 |
| 11 | Danielle Winans | Laingsburg | 5.0 |
| 11 | Kaitlyn Wilcox | Perry | 4.1 |
| 12 | Macy Spicer | Fowler | 3.7 |
| 12 | Avery Ellenwood | Battle Creek Harper … | 3.3 |
Last year around this time, I put together this post. The goal was to give our runners a guide, what they need to run to fit in and compete at the next level. Obviously, there are many more factors and I’ll just rehash them here:
Good people – those who treat others with respect, are genuine, have good relationships with those close to them. What are they doing in their community to better the lives of others?
Hard workers – those who continue to work hard, grind away in all circumstances. Could even be at home or their jobs. But especially in their training.
Academics – consistency would be huge. Would take the student who has 6 B’s over the one with 3 A’s, 2 C’s, and a D. I’d also love someone who took on challenges, tougher classes or at a local college.
Leadership – were they captain? If not, why?
Training environment – I hem and haw on this, but I’d go for someone who has untapped potential and less people to train with. Someone running a 16:30 from a farm town is more impressive than the same time from a glamorous suburban school with every resource in the book.
Track times – usually the end all, be all. The most easily identifiable and measurable, both in times of distance and surface. Can be compared in many ways.
| Division | SR Avg | SR Max | Top 25% | Top 75% | SR Min | Sample Size |
| Division 1 | 201.4 | 220.3 | 209.2 | 192.3 | 161.2 | 69 |
| Division 2 | 187.5 | 206.5 | 196.0 | 183.1 | 137.1 | 75 |
| Division 3 | 169.4 | 199.7 | 183.1 | 158.8 | 119.1 | 54 |
| NAIA | 167.5 | 202.1 | 184.4 | 157.7 | 13.9 | 68 |
| NJCAA | 161.8 | 200.2 | 184.8 | 152.0 | 47.0 | 42 |
Avg = the average rating of all runners running at that level
Max = the best rating of all at that level
Top 25% and 75% = shows the middle 50. If you’re running between these ratings, you’re definitely capable of competing at that college division.
Min = the lowest rating of all at that level
| Division | JR Avg | JR Max | Top 25% | Top 75% | JR Min | Sample Size |
| Division 1 | 195.2 | 218.3 | 206.9 | 185.9 | 157.4 | 47 |
| Division 2 | 181.0 | 203.3 | 192.1 | 174.1 | 133.1 | 51 |
| Division 3 | 165.9 | 195.8 | 180.4 | 158.2 | 88.9 | 32 |
| NAIA | 158.8 | 200.3 | 182.6 | 148.4 | -53.9 | 44 |
| Division | SO Avg | SO Max | Top 25% | Top 75% | SO Min | Sample Size |
| Division 1 | 185.8 | 209.9 | 199.2 | 171.4 | 155.3 | 24 |
| Division 2 | 176.8 | 199.2 | 184.4 | 169.0 | 152.8 | 11 |
| Division 3 | 157.2 | 187.7 | 175.7 | 136.6 | 96.8 | 12 |
| NAIA | 151.6 | 193.4 | 170.6 | 122.8 | 102.7 | 16 |
Luke Schwartz is the kid that ran 155.3 as a sophomore. He broke 18:00 late that year, then was an outstanding leader for Romeo, running in the low 16’s in his final two years. Now, he’ll be competing for Oklahoma, a Power 5 school. Anything can happen.
GIRLS SENIOR YEAR RATINGS
| Division | SR Avg | SR Max | Top 25% | Top 75% | SR Min | Sample Size |
| Division 1 | 136.0 | 180.5 | 152.7 | 121.2 | 45.1 | 114 |
| Division 2 | 119.8 | 155.2 | 136.8 | 107.9 | 19.1 | 81 |
| Division 3 | 89.5 | 145.8 | 112.0 | 69.7 | -26.5 | 49 |
| NAIA | 93.2 | 146.5 | 118.6 | 80.9 | -31.0 | 67 |
| NJCAA | 68.3 | 132.3 | 100.2 | 44.4 | -109.0 | 42 |
| Division | SR Avg | SR Max | Top 25% | Top 75% | SR Min | Sample Size |
| Division 1 | 133.1 | 171.9 | 146.3 | 119.8 | 47.0 | 76 |
| Division 2 | 118.9 | 152.1 | 135.6 | 107.0 | 45.5 | 45 |
| Division 3 | 83.3 | 153.3 | 118.5 | 66.7 | -136.4 | 31 |
| NAIA | 94.7 | 139.9 | 116.2 | 77.8 | 31.7 | 39 |
| NJCAA | 54.5 | 133.3 | 98.9 | 32.3 | -51.3 | 24 |
| Division | SR Avg | SR Max | Top 25% | Top 75% | SR Min | Sample Size |
| Division 1 | 127.4 | 156.9 | 144.9 | 111.8 | 71.2 | 24 |
| Division 2 | 116.5 | 146.4 | 126.3 | 104.6 | 91.3 | 12 |
| Division 3 | 83.3 | 114.8 | 94.2 | 66.2 | 51.3 | 10 |
| NAIA | 96.7 | 132.2 | 116.7 | 87.6 | 50.3 | 13 |
Jenna Kral is that girl rated at a 71.2 as a sophomore. Her 2017 was a roller coaster; she had a few solid races in the low 21’s, but in major meets, she was above 23:00. As a senior, she was able to break 20:00, more importantly those quick times came at important moments, as she nearly PRed at her regional. In the future, she’ll be under the tutelage of my good friend Coach Filipek at Western Michigan. Anything can happen.