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Girls Adjustment: +41
Boys Adjustment: +36

MIXCSR VS. REALITY

I was a solid 12/12 on teams. Off to a great start in my quest for this to be the best year ever. I think my record is 192/216 of the top-three squads.

Normally I’d give mention to a team that surprised, but this is all individuals:

Kyan Deam, Big Rapids – who had never been in the 16’s once before yesterday. Not even 16:59, 16:58, or a 17:00. Coming into this region, his previous best time was a 17:12, achieved last week in the CSAA Finals. Time-wise, this was out of left field, but looking back at Kyan’s career, he had been inching toward this. 32^nd here as a sophomore, 20^th in 2023, finally a 14^th place that earns a trip down south to MIS.

Gus Rohde, Reed City – this section is typically dedicated to those less heralded, but when you’re completing courses in under 900 seconds, you’re gonna get a shoutout. In the athletic.net era, there have are now five boys that have shattered 15-flat on the Benzie track. Hunter Jones, Riley Hough, Nathan Walker, Connor Mora, and now Gus.

Lillian Binger, Gladwin – with a wondrous finishing stretch. Back last year, she was unable to break through the 21’s, and before October of this year, hasn’t gone under 20:00. A 19:50 at the 2^nd JPC Jamboree had to be a welcome confidence boost that only spurred a closing stretch of a top-10 JPC finish and an 11^th place qualifier here.

Faith Helsel, Lake City – listen, I know this Benzie course is fast. But it’s not fast to the point where a freshman can straight up skip over the 20’s. You’ve gotta put in a superhuman regional effort for that to occur. Which is what Faith did, outperforming her projection by 10 spots, dropping her personal best from 21-flat to 19:55, earning a trip to experience the big stage in a week.

BOYS INDIVIDUAL RATINGS

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating	Meet
12	Elijah Christensen	15:28.4	Gladwin	198.5	Region 10
12	Seth Mead	15:41.8	Gladwin	194.1	Region 10
11	Owen Metzger	15:47.0	Sparta	192.3	Region 10
12	Carter Sherman	15:47.4	Fremont	192.2	Region 10
12	Stewart Waters	15:48.7	Whitehall	191.8	Region 10
12	Justin Bradford	15:51.3	Sparta	190.9	Region 10
11	Ethan Shoffner	15:53.4	Cedar Springs	190.2	Region 10
12	Vincent Pollock	15:55.9	Fruitport	189.4	Region 10
12	Peyton Ruel	16:00.6	Muskegon Oakridge	187.8	Region 10
12	Hayden Gould	16:01.8	Big Rapids	187.4	Region 10
12	Blake Taylor	16:11.6	Fremont	184.1	Region 10
11	Ben Verellen	16:12.6	Gladwin	183.8	Region 10
10	Bryce Falbe	16:13.4	Muskegon Oakridge	183.5	Region 10
12	Kyan Deam	16:22.3	Big Rapids	180.6	Region 10
11	Alex Culver	16:25.6	Howard City Tri-County	179.5	Region 10
10	Reeve Oberman	16:27.3	Petoskey	178.9	Region 10
10	Peyton Farrell	16:29.1	Cedar Springs	178.3	Region 10
10	Myles Robinson	16:32.8	Gladwin	177.1	Region 10
12	Cole Lowery	16:36.1	Fremont	176.0	Region 10
11	Aiden Weller	16:37.5	Cedar Springs	175.5	Region 10
11	Lukus Mendoza	16:40.0	Spring Lake	174.7	Region 10
11	Hunter Parsons	16:42.5	Whitehall	173.8	Region 10
12	Andrew Boeringa	16:44.6	Whitehall	173.1	Region 10
9	Kelan Monreal	16:44.6	Howard City Tri-County	173.1	Region 10
10	Owen Adams	16:44.9	Spring Lake	173.1	Region 10
12	Noah Lowman	16:45.4	Ludington	172.9	Region 10
9	Tadhg Shoffner	16:47.9	Cedar Springs	172.0	Region 10
9	Rex Pumford	16:54.2	Whitehall	169.9	Region 10
9	Declan Shoffner	16:56.4	Cedar Springs	169.2	Region 10
10	Samuel Organ	16:56.5	Cedar Springs	169.2	Region 10
10	Gabe Grierson	16:57.0	Ludington	169.0	Region 10
12	David Reisterer	16:57.3	Ludington	168.9	Region 10
12	Parker Fettig	16:57.5	Petoskey	168.8	Region 10
11	Henry Kauffman	16:58.5	Howard City Tri-County	168.5	Region 10
10	Mossen Green	16:58.9	Fremont	168.4	Region 10
12	Christopher Locke	17:02.1	Spring Lake	167.3	Region 10
11	Chase Lowery	17:02.5	Fremont	167.2	Region 10
11	Ryan Ladd	17:05.4	Cedar Springs	166.2	Region 10
11	Simon Licata	17:06.2	Petoskey	165.9	Region 10
11	Rocket Wilson	17:06.6	Howard City Tri-County	165.8	Region 10
12	Andrew Elmore	17:09.1	Cadillac	165.0	Region 10
11	Carson Wood	17:12.2	Sparta	164.0	Region 10
11	Lawson Miller	17:17.5	Muskegon Oakridge	162.2	Region 10
11	Caleb Lamblin	17:19.4	Gaylord	161.5	Region 10
12	Jaxon Lumbert	17:19.7	Howard City Tri-County	161.4	Region 10
10	Alex Flores	17:20.3	Ludington	161.2	Region 10
10	Isaac Stebelton	17:25.3	Petoskey	159.6	Region 10
11	Issac Romero	17:28.4	Fremont	158.5	Region 10
11	Brayden VanOs	17:29.4	Big Rapids	158.2	Region 10
11	Landon Johnson	17:35.8	Fruitport	156.1	Region 10
11	Landon Andrews	17:36.0	Muskegon Orchard View	156.0	Region 10
10	Masyn Wing	17:37.2	Cadillac	155.6	Region 10
9	Isaac Vandlen	17:37.4	Spring Lake	155.5	Region 10
10	Griffin Frentz	17:37.8	Petoskey	155.4	Region 10
10	Lukas Albright	17:39.3	Big Rapids	154.9	Region 10
10	Caleb Kohl	17:40.0	Howard City Tri-County	154.7	Region 10
9	Micah Theis	17:41.6	Ludington	154.1	Region 10
11	Brody Swanson	17:44.6	Cadillac	153.1	Region 10
11	Isaiah Boerema	17:47.4	Ludington	152.2	Region 10
9	Gabriel Piach	17:50.9	Gladwin	151.0	Region 10
11	Zahar Rush	17:51.4	Petoskey	150.9	Region 10
11	Girum Merriman	17:56.2	Sparta	149.3	Region 10
11	Levi Vanderlaan	17:56.2	Spring Lake	149.3	Region 10
12	Tyler Van Antwerp	17:58.7	Whitehall	148.4	Region 10
10	Carson Brey	18:01.0	Petoskey	147.7	Region 10
12	Nathan Koches	18:01.3	Spring Lake	147.6	Region 10
12	Isaac Primm	18:03.5	Spring Lake	146.8	Region 10
10	Andreas Krapp	18:05.3	Fremont	146.2	Region 10
9	Robert Ray	18:06.6	Ludington	145.8	Region 10
9	Corbin Hutchinson	18:07.4	Gaylord	145.5	Region 10
11	Griffin Mis	18:10.5	Sparta	144.5	Region 10
12	Isaac Meyers	18:13.1	Sparta	143.6	Region 10
12	Jacob Krompetz	18:14.8	Gladwin	143.1	Region 10
12	James Griffiths	18:17.5	Gladwin	142.2	Region 10
9	Dylan Winskas	18:22.8	Fruitport	140.4	Region 10
11	Blaine Berson	18:26.7	Whitehall	139.1	Region 10
10	Jaxon Webb	18:33.6	Cadillac	136.8	Region 10
10	Liem Hauserman	18:49.1	Cadillac	131.6	Region 10
12	Donald Thompson	18:50.1	Big Rapids	131.3	Region 10
12	McCoy McGuire	18:58.4	Cadillac	128.5	Region 10
11	Andrew Owens	19:04.5	Whitehall	126.5	Region 10
9	Beckett Swanson	19:10.2	Cadillac	124.6	Region 10
9	Keagon Kostecki	19:12.2	Big Rapids	123.9	Region 10
10	Jayden Mueller	19:31.5	Muskegon Oakridge	117.5	Region 10
11	Preston May	19:35.2	Sparta	116.3	Region 10
10	Zack Zarna	20:45.2	Howard City Tri-County	92.9	Region 10
11	Enzo Aggoune	20:56.2	Fruitport	89.3	Region 10
11	Drew Babinec	21:41.0	Muskegon Oakridge	74.4	Region 10
12	Elias Kinden	21:42.2	Muskegon Oakridge	73.9	Region 10
9	Cadyn Carlson	21:45.8	Big Rapids	72.7	Region 10
11	Josh Vanstelle	21:46.0	Fruitport	72.7	Region 10
9	Drew Powell	21:52.8	Fruitport	70.4	Region 10
11	Landen Peck	21:54.3	Fruitport	69.9	Region 10
9	Colton Hicks	22:14.2	Gaylord	63.3	Region 10
9	Rileigh Schmitz	22:44.6	Muskegon Oakridge	53.1	Region 10
9	Aiden Musall	23:46.2	Gaylord	32.6	Region 10
Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating	Meet
12	August Rohde	14:58.7	Reed City	208.4	Region 20
11	Robert Dykhouse	16:06.1	Manton	186.0	Region 20
11	Jackson Schaub	16:31.2	Benzie Central	177.6	Region 20
9	Eli VanPoortfliet	16:32.1	Benzie Central	177.3	Region 20
9	Tristan Hernandez	16:34.2	Kingsley	176.6	Region 20
11	Wyatt Vanpoortfliet	16:43.9	Benzie Central	173.4	Region 20
10	Cooper Tiffany	16:44.4	Lakeview	173.2	Region 20
11	Caiden Helsel	16:47.0	Lake City	172.3	Region 20
9	Silas Ackley	16:49.8	Hart	171.4	Region 20
11	Connor Helsel	16:51.3	Lake City	170.9	Region 20
10	Aiden Schaner	16:57.5	Hart	168.8	Region 20
10	Cage Edingfield	17:00.5	Benzie Central	167.8	Region 20
11	Paul Saladin	17:01.1	Reed City	167.6	Region 20
12	Jacob Simon	17:01.7	Remus Chippewa Hills	167.4	Region 20
11	Jack Slotman	17:04.8	Hart	166.4	Region 20
11	Ethan Baker	17:11.3	LeRoy Pine River	164.2	Region 20
9	Grant Ackley	17:11.3	Hart	164.2	Region 20
12	Christian Schramski	17:12.1	Manistee	164.0	Region 20
10	Nathan Lenington	17:13.8	LeRoy Pine River	163.4	Region 20
9	Abraham Kiaunis	17:17.0	Reed City	162.3	Region 20
10	Braydn Winkel	17:17.6	McBain	162.1	Region 20
12	McKai Henry	17:18.2	Benzie Central	161.9	Region 20
9	Tanner Dozier	17:20.4	Reed City	161.2	Region 20
12	Benjamin DeRidder	17:22.6	Benzie Central	160.5	Region 20
11	Kaden Worch	17:24.2	Manistee	159.9	Region 20
10	Carson Ackley	17:28.1	Hart	158.6	Region 20
10	Mason Opalewski	17:29.8	Hart	158.1	Region 20
11	Kyle Vincent	17:33.0	Benzie Central	157.0	Region 20
10	Pascal Miller	17:33.2	Hart	156.9	Region 20
11	Aaron Allen	17:51.1	Reed City	151.0	Region 20
11	Joey Kulpa	17:55.9	LeRoy Pine River	149.4	Region 20
10	Nate Ruhstorfer	17:57.6	Hesperia	148.8	Region 20
11	Jack Helsel	17:58.6	Manton	148.5	Region 20
11	Owen Butkovich	17:59.0	Lake City	148.3	Region 20
10	Darren Moore	18:02.2	LeRoy Pine River	147.3	Region 20
11	Iziquiel Picon	18:05.4	Shelby	146.2	Region 20
11	Zack Temple	18:07.4	Hesperia	145.5	Region 20
10	Brayden Spears	18:08.7	Lake City	145.1	Region 20
10	Brady Dozier	18:11.0	Reed City	144.3	Region 20
9	Kollin Spyker	18:13.1	Mason County Central	143.6	Region 20
12	Andrew Sherburn	18:16.4	Hesperia	142.5	Region 20
10	Liam VanScoyoc	18:17.7	Reed City	142.1	Region 20
10	Carter Root	18:19.0	Lake City	141.7	Region 20
10	Brody Wolf	18:22.4	Kingsley	140.5	Region 20
9	Andy Lopez-Garcia	18:27.2	Hesperia	138.9	Region 20
9	Azrael Horvath	18:27.7	Manton	138.8	Region 20
9	Drew Gilde	18:33.8	Kingsley	136.7	Region 20
12	Matthew Rainwater	18:44.2	Morley-Stanwood	133.3	Region 20
9	Edison Huizinga	18:45.1	Manistee	133.0	Region 20
12	Logan Face	18:46.1	Kingsley	132.6	Region 20
9	Ben Mulder	18:48.0	McBain	132.0	Region 20
11	Owen Wemple	18:54.2	LeRoy Pine River	129.9	Region 20
10	Isaiah Morrow	18:59.7	Manton	128.1	Region 20
10	Jackson Poll	18:59.8	Mason County Central	128.1	Region 20
12	Gaven Cornell	19:02.6	Morley-Stanwood	127.1	Region 20
9	Lawton Scarlett	19:02.7	Lakeview	127.1	Region 20
12	Nathan Peters	19:04.9	Kingsley	126.4	Region 20
10	Alex Crowder	19:10.8	Shelby	124.4	Region 20
11	Kody Hazen	19:16.7	Remus Chippewa Hills	122.4	Region 20
10	Dan Youngberg	19:17.8	Lake City	122.1	Region 20
12	Ethan Fessenden	19:19.2	Shelby	121.6	Region 20
11	Caden Hughes	19:23.4	Remus Chippewa Hills	120.2	Region 20
9	Owen Peterson	19:25.6	Manton	119.5	Region 20
10	Travis Kelsey	19:29.6	Lake City	118.1	Region 20
9	Tristin Quist	19:36.6	McBain	115.8	Region 20
11	Corbin Bender	19:41.0	Kingsley	114.3	Region 20
10	Jack Wallender	19:41.1	Manton	114.3	Region 20
10	John Nielsen	19:42.9	Morley-Stanwood	113.7	Region 20
9	Evan Wemple	19:59.5	LeRoy Pine River	108.2	Region 20
9	Keegan Roberson	20:00.9	Hesperia	107.7	Region 20
10	Devin Swihart	20:01.0	Manistee	107.7	Region 20
9	Brock Adamczak	20:01.5	Manistee	107.5	Region 20
10	Josiah Hernandez	20:03.7	Kingsley	106.8	Region 20
10	Tanner Carlson	20:13.8	Remus Chippewa Hills	103.4	Region 20
12	Bryce Thurow	20:23.6	Mason County Central	100.1	Region 20
9	Adam Olson	20:37.7	Manistee	95.5	Region 20
10	Kadence Gunnare	20:41.2	Manton	94.3	Region 20
10	Aubin Allee	20:46.8	LeRoy Pine River	92.4	Region 20
10	Ethan McVicker	20:56.0	Mason County Central	89.3	Region 20
11	Aldolfo Vera-Rangel	21:06.9	Remus Chippewa Hills	85.7	Region 20
12	Avery Cook	21:07.3	Manistee	85.6	Region 20
10	Jesse Petersen	21:24.2	Lakeview	79.9	Region 20
12	Colin Cauffman	21:33.1	Mason County Central	77.0	Region 20
10	Dakota Kline	21:33.9	McBain	76.7	Region 20
11	Kolt Milner	21:43.1	Hesperia	73.7	Region 20
10	John Williamson	21:52.1	Remus Chippewa Hills	70.6	Region 20
11	Ethen Gancarz	21:58.9	Mason County Central	68.4	Region 20
11	Dain Kraus	22:08.5	Hesperia	65.2	Region 20
10	Kyle Johansen	22:21.1	Remus Chippewa Hills	61.0	Region 20
9	Ed Christie	22:26.5	McBain	59.2	Region 20
11	Henry Metzger	22:31.8	Morley-Stanwood	57.4	Region 20
12	Jacob Failor	22:32.7	Mason County Central	57.1	Region 20
9	Max Cubillos	22:37.4	Shelby	55.5	Region 20
12	Tyler Lach	23:23.5	Morley-Stanwood	40.2	Region 20
9	Declan Waller	23:36.2	Shelby	35.9	Region 20
9	Edmund Hayes	24:19.8	Shelby	21.4	Region 20

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL RATINGS

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating	Meet
11	Katie Berkshire	17:31.1	Gaylord	156.0	Region 10
10	Annabelle Lowman	18:02.3	Ludington	145.6	Region 10
10	Mia May	18:06.8	Sparta	144.1	Region 10
11	Brooklynn Brown	18:07.9	Cadillac	143.7	Region 10
10	Ella McInerney	18:30.0	Cadillac	136.3	Region 10
11	Alexis Kotkowicz	18:31.3	Spring Lake	135.9	Region 10
12	Nadia Grierson	18:33.5	Ludington	135.2	Region 10
9	Kaleigh Clark	19:09.0	Spring Lake	123.3	Region 10
11	Linnea Paige	19:09.9	Fremont	123.0	Region 10
12	Adalyn Britton	19:14.9	Whitehall	121.4	Region 10
12	Lillian Binger	19:16.5	Gladwin	120.8	Region 10
11	Ava Pawlick	19:17.3	Petoskey	120.6	Region 10
12	Abby Robinson	19:22.1	Gladwin	119.0	Region 10
9	Chloe Mazza	19:29.5	Cadillac	116.5	Region 10
12	Valerie Pollock	19:31.6	Fruitport	115.8	Region 10
10	Cora Parker	19:34.8	Spring Lake	114.7	Region 10
12	Mackenzie Baldrica	19:35.0	Sparta	114.7	Region 10
12	Summer Brower	19:36.2	Ludington	114.3	Region 10
11	Joelle Patten	19:37.9	Fremont	113.7	Region 10
10	Emory Smith	19:39.7	Cedar Springs	113.1	Region 10
10	Abby Noorman	19:40.6	Cedar Springs	112.8	Region 10
12	Lexie Ruffing	19:41.3	Spring Lake	112.6	Region 10
9	Addy Nesbitt	19:44.9	Cedar Springs	111.4	Region 10
12	Camille (Cami) Kraai	19:49.5	Whitehall	109.8	Region 10
10	Allison Brandt	19:51.5	Ludington	109.2	Region 10
9	Peyhton Beardsley	19:58.7	Fruitport	106.8	Region 10
11	Meghan Guczwa	20:01.9	Spring Lake	105.7	Region 10
11	Elisabeth Pauls	20:12.0	Petoskey	102.3	Region 10
12	Kylee Johnson	20:16.1	Ludington	101.0	Region 10
12	Autumn Brower	20:18.8	Ludington	100.1	Region 10
12	Bethany Zimmerman	20:18.9	Spring Lake	100.1	Region 10
12	Fiona Scott	20:29.6	Petoskey	96.5	Region 10
12	Ella Spanding	20:33.3	Gaylord	95.2	Region 10
10	Kendall Nester	20:34.0	Cedar Springs	95.0	Region 10
9	Vivian O’Callaghan	20:35.4	Gladwin	94.5	Region 10
9	Ruth Hanson	20:45.0	Cadillac	91.4	Region 10
10	Zoe German	20:49.0	Fruitport	90.0	Region 10
11	Alanis Povey	20:50.2	Gladwin	89.6	Region 10
10	Greta Meisel	20:57.4	Petoskey	87.2	Region 10
11	Carly Gaylord	21:13.2	Cadillac	81.9	Region 10
10	Kira Manchip	21:13.3	Fremont	81.9	Region 10
12	Madison Viau	21:14.4	Cedar Springs	81.5	Region 10
9	Ellie Daniel	21:14.9	Petoskey	81.4	Region 10
10	Kenzie Druce	21:15.9	Cedar Springs	81.0	Region 10
11	Cate Brown	21:16.7	Cadillac	80.8	Region 10
11	Anna Pake	21:18.3	Howard City Tri-County	80.2	Region 10
9	Briella Kohley	21:21.8	Spring Lake	79.1	Region 10
9	Brynley Merkins	21:23.8	Fruitport	78.4	Region 10
9	Alaina Morrell	21:26.8	Gaylord	77.4	Region 10
12	Rachel Maddox	21:31.7	Fremont	75.8	Region 10
12	Alisia Pedrin	21:41.5	Cadillac	72.5	Region 10
9	Nora Kauffman	21:42.9	Howard City Tri-County	72.0	Region 10
10	Treasure Fleese	21:47.9	Fruitport	70.4	Region 10
9	Michaela Bova	21:50.2	Petoskey	69.6	Region 10
9	Shelby McCallum	21:51.1	Ludington	69.3	Region 10
10	Hayden Holloway	21:53.6	Gaylord	68.5	Region 10
10	Emily Costello	22:03.3	Sparta	65.2	Region 10
12	Erin Alster	22:07.0	Sparta	64.0	Region 10
11	Madeline Pacola	22:09.3	Petoskey	63.2	Region 10
12	Samantha Mead	22:17.6	Whitehall	60.5	Region 10
12	Corina Mitteer	22:19.6	Whitehall	59.8	Region 10
10	Michaela O’Callaghan	22:27.8	Gladwin	57.1	Region 10
11	Rocquel Richards	22:33.2	Fremont	55.3	Region 10
12	Kadence Norman	22:34.4	Sparta	54.9	Region 10
10	Rina Graveline	22:35.4	Gladwin	54.5	Region 10
9	Esme Kane	22:39.4	Gaylord	53.2	Region 10
11	Martha Adrian	22:39.9	Gaylord	53.0	Region 10
12	Skylee Ames	22:45.6	Gaylord	51.1	Region 10
9	Kassie Sapp	22:55.9	Whitehall	47.7	Region 10
11	Joslyn Abbott	23:11.3	Howard City Tri-County	42.6	Region 10
11	Madison Louk	23:16.3	Gladwin	40.9	Region 10
12	Keira VanTimmeren	23:18.0	Howard City Tri-County	40.3	Region 10
11	Kassidy Parmley	23:40.3	Whitehall	32.9	Region 10
10	Genevieve Franklin	23:42.3	Fruitport	32.2	Region 10
9	Eliana Aris	23:45.5	Big Rapids	31.2	Region 10
9	Mary Saladin	23:48.2	Big Rapids	30.3	Region 10
11	Aubrey Delabrena	23:53.4	Fruitport	28.5	Region 10
11	Jocelynn Olds	23:55.3	Howard City Tri-County	27.9	Region 10
10	Miriam Hess	23:55.6	Cedar Springs	27.8	Region 10
12	Addyson Moeggenberg	23:56.6	Howard City Tri-County	27.5	Region 10
10	Jessie Kendziorski	24:04.8	Fremont	24.7	Region 10
10	Braylynn Saunders	24:06.0	Ogemaw Heights	24.3	Region 10
11	Kathryn Kober	24:08.3	Sparta	23.6	Region 10
9	Paige Roman	24:13.0	Big Rapids	22.0	Region 10
12	Carly Schaub	24:17.2	Howard City Tri-County	20.6	Region 10
12	Riley Chase	24:31.7	Fremont	15.8	Region 10
10	Sage Brewer	24:41.8	Ogemaw Heights	12.4	Region 10
10	Emma Bowman	24:44.3	Big Rapids	11.6	Region 10
10	Lauren Bradford	24:46.0	Sparta	11.0	Region 10
12	Isabella Caserta	25:00.8	Big Rapids	6.1	Region 10
Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating	Meet
10	Kamryn Salladay	18:20.8	Lakeview	139.4	Region 20
9	Caelyn Torry	18:32.8	McBain	135.4	Region 20
12	Nora Grossnickle	18:54.4	Benzie Central	128.2	Region 20
9	Avery Kelly	19:07.0	Benzie Central	124.0	Region 20
9	Madisyn Wanstead	19:08.2	LeRoy Pine River	123.6	Region 20
12	Megan Gottschall	19:35.1	Lake City	114.6	Region 20
9	Dory Simon	19:37.5	Remus Chippewa Hills	113.8	Region 20
10	Natalie Rosema	19:38.3	Hart	113.6	Region 20
9	Avalynne Allee	19:50.9	LeRoy Pine River	109.4	Region 20
11	Quinn Hatfield	19:51.1	Remus Chippewa Hills	109.3	Region 20
9	Faith Helsel	19:55.3	Lake City	107.9	Region 20
9	Alaina Schaner	19:58.7	Hart	106.8	Region 20
9	Lilly Whaley	19:59.0	Benzie Central	106.7	Region 20
9	Maggie McClellan	20:03.7	Benzie Central	105.1	Region 20
12	Chelsi Eisenga	20:11.0	McBain	102.7	Region 20
12	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	20:20.0	Hart	99.7	Region 20
10	Maylan Sanders	20:21.5	Mason County Central	99.2	Region 20
12	Audrey Huizinga	20:21.7	Manistee	99.1	Region 20
11	Elizabeth Ontis	20:28.0	Remus Chippewa Hills	97.0	Region 20
9	Joselyn Flores	20:28.6	Hart	96.8	Region 20
10	Marlowe Walcott	20:31.1	Reed City	96.0	Region 20
10	Betsy Gooden	20:35.5	Manton	94.5	Region 20
10	Madelyn Reinink	20:39.1	McBain	93.3	Region 20
12	Harriet Kidder	20:46.8	Hart	90.7	Region 20
12	Clara Smoes	20:47.4	Reed City	90.5	Region 20
9	Bryn Riley	20:49.2	Hart	89.9	Region 20
10	Noel Parker	20:49.7	Shelby	89.8	Region 20
10	Kayden Hinton	20:56.1	McBain	87.6	Region 20
11	Georgia Haag	20:59.3	Manistee	86.6	Region 20
9	Peyton Nellis	21:00.8	Remus Chippewa Hills	86.1	Region 20
11	Magdalena Herberger	21:07.6	Manistee	83.8	Region 20
9	Emery Velat	21:13.9	Hart	81.7	Region 20
12	Kennedi Wahmhoff	21:19.3	Manton	79.9	Region 20
9	Kathryn Beyer	21:21.8	Shelby	79.1	Region 20
12	Shauna McLean	21:23.5	McBain	78.5	Region 20
12	Ava Iverson	21:28.4	Benzie Central	76.9	Region 20
11	Adison Thorne	21:42.3	Mason County Central	72.3	Region 20
11	Sahara Davis	21:47.2	Reed City	70.6	Region 20
12	Lauren Booms	21:48.6	Lake City	70.1	Region 20
12	Sadie Larson	21:52.0	Lake City	69.0	Region 20
11	Althea Gaylord	21:53.8	Benzie Central	68.4	Region 20
12	Kate Somsel	21:59.7	Manistee	66.4	Region 20
12	Sayla Bender	22:00.2	Kingsley	66.3	Region 20
12	Augusta Bowman	22:06.2	Remus Chippewa Hills	64.3	Region 20
12	Genesis Wilson	22:13.5	McBain	61.8	Region 20
10	Charity Rogers	22:15.9	Reed City	61.0	Region 20
10	Grace Hasenbank	22:22.8	Shelby	58.7	Region 20
9	Madilynn Fancett	22:27.6	McBain	57.1	Region 20
12	Annabeth Allee	22:32.0	LeRoy Pine River	55.7	Region 20
12	Nevia Chimonas	22:35.9	Benzie Central	54.4	Region 20
12	Natalie Gibson	22:36.8	Remus Chippewa Hills	54.1	Region 20
9	Claira Slezak	22:38.3	Lakeview	53.6	Region 20
12	Natalie Sterk	22:38.6	Kingsley	53.5	Region 20
11	Alayna Edmondson	22:39.2	Manistee	53.3	Region 20
12	Hadley Tiffany	22:40.7	Lakeview	52.8	Region 20
10	Madelyn Sterley	22:43.3	Mason County Central	51.9	Region 20
10	Nevaeh Battice	22:44.3	Mason County Central	51.6	Region 20
12	Carly Carlson	22:52.3	Reed City	48.9	Region 20
11	Taytum Sanford	22:54.1	Reed City	48.3	Region 20
10	Jovi Campbell-Pickard	22:55.4	Mason County Central	47.9	Region 20
12	Mia Belica	22:57.4	Lake City	47.2	Region 20
11	Leah Storey	22:58.6	Remus Chippewa Hills	46.8	Region 20
11	Isabella Bickle	23:12.6	Kingsley	42.1	Region 20
9	Emma Schultz	23:14.6	Manistee	41.5	Region 20
9	Ava Sielski	23:22.3	Manistee	38.9	Region 20
12	Rheanna Gilzene	23:31.1	Manton	36.0	Region 20
12	Mallory Miller	23:31.4	Mason County Central	35.9	Region 20
10	Naomi Allen	23:39.8	Lakeview	33.1	Region 20
10	Hallee Hervey	23:47.0	Reed City	30.7	Region 20
11	April Luna	23:51.4	Shelby	29.2	Region 20
10	Sydney Reed	23:53.4	Shelby	28.5	Region 20
11	Madalyn Morris	23:56.4	LeRoy Pine River	27.5	Region 20
12	Grayslin Walch	23:58.2	Morley-Stanwood	26.9	Region 20
10	Elsie Lucas	24:10.5	LeRoy Pine River	22.8	Region 20
10	Emma Grady	24:20.1	Lake City	19.6	Region 20
11	Sydney Moore	24:21.4	Lakeview	19.2	Region 20
10	Rokhaya Ruhstorfer	24:24.3	Hesperia	18.2	Region 20
9	Elaina Rohloff	24:36.1	Lakeview	14.3	Region 20
10	Martina Servin	24:36.5	Manton	14.2	Region 20
12	Molly Willison	24:40.5	Lakeview	12.9	Region 20
9	Ryleigh Vining	24:41.0	Morley-Stanwood	12.7	Region 20
11	Grace Supanich	24:42.6	Morley-Stanwood	12.1	Region 20
12	Nyvaeh Wendt	24:55.1	Mason County Central	8.0	Region 20
12	Layla Draper	25:01.5	LeRoy Pine River	5.8	Region 20
10	Aubreana Ryno	25:06.7	Manton	4.1	Region 20
11	Mary Bauer	25:13.8	Kingsley	1.7	Region 20

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 1

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Jenison breaking up what looked to be a locked in region. What the Wildcats did in the OK Green Final was absolutely uncalled for. Nearly a perfect score, five girls under 19:20. If Jenison were to compete in the OK Red Final, held two days later at Riverside under similar conditions, they probably place 2^nd. Though one meet doesn’t a season make, especially when Rockford and Grand Haven have been performing at a high level all fall.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Holland West Ottawa	26	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Rockford	82	2.4		94	8
3	Grand Haven	89	3.0		79	10
4	Jenison	97	3.6		27	12
5	Hudsonville	129	5.0			22
6	Grandville	175	6.2			44
7	Zeeland West	183	6.8			49
8	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	236	8.2			74
9	Muskegon Mona Shores	249	9.2			79
10	Greenville	257	9.6			85
11	Grand Rapids Northview	332	11.0			101
12	Grand Rapids Union	376	12.0			117
13	Wyoming	423	13.0			124

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	1.0
2	10	Daisy Cox	Rockford	2.1
3	12	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	3.1
4	12	Emma Gunnett	Holland West Ottawa	5.0
5	11	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	5.5
6	10	Collette Wierks	Holland West Ottawa	5.7
7	12	Chloe DeRidder	Grandville	8.4
8	10	Paige McMeans	Jenison	8.7
9	12	Addy Smith	Grand Haven	9.8
10	12	Jane Olney	Holland West Ottawa	12.1
11	11	Gracelin Martin	Greenville	13.2
12	12	Jordyn Klaasen	Zeeland West	14.0
13	10	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville	14.4
14	9	Mary Dolbow	Holland West Ottawa	15.1
15	9	Jillian Lewakowski	Rockford	15.3
16	10	Chloe Purwin	Hudsonville	16.2
17	10	Lyla Dowling	Holland West Ottawa	17.7
18	12	Natalie Lewis	Rockford	18.2
19	9	Maddy Aleisa	Jenison	18.3
20	11	Jersi Bilek	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	18.9
21	12	Naomi Diekman	Jenison	20.6
22	9	Morgan Sanders	Rockford	20.6
23	11	Macy Guikema	Jenison	21.9
24	11	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven	22.8
25	12	Abi Albright	Grand Haven	23.8
26	12	Melana Karsten	Rockford	27.8
27	11	Trinity VanderWoude	Rockford	28.2
28	11	Andrea Schwartz	Jenison	28.5
29	10	Ashley Wayne	Hudsonville	28.8
30	12	Gracey Barry	Grand Haven	29.7

Region 2

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Shepherd is the middle ground between Traverse City West and Okemos. One travels from Lansing, the other from Northern Michigan. Despite the differences, these teams have come across each other already. Portage saw TCW finish 11^th in the D1 race, Okemos 16^th. If Rachel Smith had been able to score for the Wolves, chances are the two outfits would be within a few points, as they are expected to be here.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Okemos	60	1.2	82	95+	6
2	Traverse City West	67	1.9	16	95+	9
3	Midland Dow	79	2.9		95+	13
4	Bay City Western	123	4.5			27
5	Traverse City Central	124	4.5			25
6	Grand Ledge	186	6.4			48
7	Midland	197	7.3			50
8	East Lansing	200	7.3			55
9	Mt. Pleasant	239	9.1			63
10	Holt	260	10.1			76
11	Alpena	281	10.9			82
12	Saginaw Heritage	303	11.9			87
13	Lansing Everett	425	13.0			119

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Victoria Garces	Midland Dow	1.2
2	9	Rachel Smith	Okemos	2.0
3	9	Emilia Garces	Midland Dow	2.8
4	12	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	5.1
5	10	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West	5.4
6	11	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge	6.9
7	10	Gabriella Fugazzi	Okemos	7.2
8	11	October Harns	Okemos	7.6
9	11	Abby Veit	Traverse City West	8.6
10	10	Jaclyn Suderman	Bay City Western	11.7
11	9	Emma McLaughlin	Midland	12.7
12	12	Sydney Roberts	Midland Dow	12.8
13	12	Ella Reaves	Holt	13.1
14	9	Ariana Rajah	Traverse City Central	13.7
15	11	Bailey Wenzlick	Traverse City West	15.7
16	9	Jessa Skonieczny	Mt. Pleasant	17.8
17	9	Emily Truszkowski	Traverse City Central	18.4
18	12	Alyssa Fouchey	Traverse City West	19.6
19	11	Sienna Cobb	Traverse City Central	20.3
20	11	Reese Smith	Traverse City West	20.4
21	9	Emily Barrie	East Lansing	22.1
22	9	Alyssa McFall	Okemos	22.3
23	11	Lydia Jagger	Grand Ledge	22.8
24	11	Fiona Whitmyer	Okemos	23.4
25	10	Bridget Raven	Traverse City West	25.2
26	9	Sawyer Lynn	Saginaw Heritage	28.0
27	9	Mya Bower	Okemos	28.6
28	11	Mallory Wilcox	Bay City Western	28.7
29	12	Olivia Tandoc	Okemos	28.9
30	12	Amelia Roznowski	Alpena	30.0

Region 3

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Which unexpected team comes out of this region? Summer projections had Byron Center at 3, Forest Hills Northern at 4, Ottawa Hills at 6, and Caledonia at 8. By those numbers, the most shocking to this point are the Bengals, who just finished 5^th in the OK White, one of the state’s tougher leagues.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Portage Central	53	1.0	95+	95+	11
2	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	100	2.2		95+	26
3	Forest Hills Northern	114	3.2		71	31
4	Byron Center	130	4.2		19	35
5	Caledonia	134	4.3		11	37
6	Forest Hills Central	193	6.2			53
7	Portage Northern	214	7.1			59
8	Kalamazoo Central	227	8.6			61
9	East Kentwood	231	8.8			62
10	Lowell	245	10.4			66
11	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	248	10.6			68
12	Battle Creek Lakeview	256	11.3			73
13	Mattawan	310	13.0			88

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Annie Alkema	Kalamazoo Central	1.2
2	9	Avery Scott	Portage Central	2.0
3	11	Olivia Stacy	Portage Northern	3.9
4	9	Ainsley Kelm	Portage Northern	4.2
5	11	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood	4.3
6	9	Gracie Carlisle	Portage Central	5.6
7	11	Willa Prinsen	Forest Hills Northern	7.7
8	11	Lilah Yoder	Forest Hills Central	9.0
9	12	Hannah Dupuis	Caledonia	10.2
10	9	Cecelia Wojciakowski	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	11.4
11	12	Reese Hansen	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	11.6
12	9	Julia Welc	Portage Central	12.7
13	12	Sofia Bogard	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	13.0
14	11	Rhea Mouw	Portage Central	14.6
15	10	Madeleine Hengeveld	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	14.6
16	9	Jaclyn Charbauski	Forest Hills Northern	17.4
17	11	Kailey Mann	Byron Center	19.7
18	9	Claire Mouw	Portage Central	19.8
19	10	Olivia Storteboom	Portage Central	19.8
20	11	Enna Wainer	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	21.1
21	12	Claire O’Boyle	Lowell	23.5
22	11	Donna Haaksma	Byron Center	24.0
23	11	Lilamae Frank	Battle Creek Lakeview	25.1
24	12	Keira Bommarito	Caledonia	25.8
25	12	Alayna Godfrey	East Kentwood	26.8
26	12	Celia Pollock	Byron Center	29.4
27	9	Emmarie Formsma	Byron Center	30.9
28	12	Kiley Bommarito	Caledonia	31.0
29	12	Samantha McClelland	Forest Hills Northern	32.5
30	11	Kate Barron	Mattawan	32.6

Region 4

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Hartland against Dexter. Hartland holds a bit of an advantage up front, having three girls capable of running in the low-19’s or faster. The Dreadnaughts may not be as quick on the top end, though they bring forth six that can throw down mid-20’s or better. Look to the gaps, if Hartland’s best three are a bit ahead of Dexter’s five, that gap may be enough to counteract the depth.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Brighton	30	1.0	95+	95+	4
2	Ann Arbor Skyline	70	2.2		95+	14
3	Hartland	84	3.2		70	18
4	Dexter	92	3.6		30	20
5	Grand Blanc	134	5.4			36
6	Davison	139	5.6			41
7	Lapeer	204	7.0			64
8	Holly	245	8.1			83
9	Howell	262	8.9			89
10	Fenton	297	10.2			93
11	Flushing	307	10.8			96
12	Swartz Creek	366	12.4			110
13	Jackson	366	12.6			109

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	1.5
2	12	Grace Tykocki	Grand Blanc	2.4
3	9	Lucia Llanes	Ann Arbor Skyline	3.8
4	12	Elle Bissett	Brighton	4.4
5	10	Ava Goodman	Hartland	5.8
6	11	Juliet Lewis	Brighton	6.3
7	9	Ella Lorenz	Brighton	7.9
8	10	Becca Van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline	9.2
9	11	Nevaeh Polovina	Davison	10.0
10	11	Courtney Lince	Brighton	10.6
11	11	Sophia Nunnery	Hartland	10.9
12	12	Alena Blumberg	Dexter	11.4
13	11	Elliana Neuer	Hartland	14.0
14	10	Irie Scrase	Ann Arbor Skyline	14.7
15	10	Kodie Snyder	Dexter	15.0
16	11	Morgan Christopher	Brighton	16.5
17	10	Isla Tharp	Ann Arbor Skyline	18.1
18	11	Maizie Cavanaugh	Brighton	18.2
19	12	Annabel O’Haver	Dexter	21.0
20	12	Addison Bruckman	Dexter	21.0
21	9	Leah Humphrey	Grand Blanc	21.8
22	10	Brooklyn Wiltse	Davison	22.1
23	11	Lilah Weber	Lapeer	24.4
24	9	Layla Blumberg	Dexter	24.5
25	9	Lila Edison	Ann Arbor Skyline	24.6
26	12	Zoe Howard	Hartland	25.7
27	12	Olivia Gartrell	Davison	25.8
28	11	Ivy Forrest	Davison	28.1
29	9	Hannah DePestel	Hartland	28.7
30	10	Maddie Lindley	Holly	29.7

Region 5

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

A yearly tradition: Ann Arbor Pioneer and Saline. According to Jacob Tanner’s wonderful tome of regional history, this Region 5 title has been won by either of the two for each of the past ten years. Currently, Pioneer leads those standings from 2014 on, 7-3. With these two teams sitting straight at the top of the area, depth becomes less of an issue and Saline’s advantage is a bit thwarted. In spite of that, the projections still have the Hornets as a slight favorite.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Saline	31	1.4	57	95+	3
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	32	1.6	43	95+	5
3	Brownstown Woodhaven	90	3.0		95+	32
4	Gibraltar Carlson	152	4.4			69
5	Temperance Bedford	155	4.6			72
6	Wyandotte Roosevelt	189	6.0			84
7	Monroe	247	7.6			94
8	Belleville	259	8.7			103
9	Dearborn	260	8.7			98
10	Allen Park	267	9.4			95
11	Ypsilanti Lincoln	288	10.9			105
12	Southgate Anderson	306	11.8			104
13	Detroit Cass Tech	353	13.1			115
14	Dearborn Fordson	373	14.0			116
15	Detroit Martin Luther King	446	14.9			123

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Natasza Dudek	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	11	Hana Boggess	Ann Arbor Pioneer	2.8
3	9	Sienna Klemmer	Ann Arbor Pioneer	3.2
4	9	McKinley Jones	Saline	3.3
5	9	Savannah Staton	Saline	4.9
6	12	Corynn Gady	Saline	6.3
7	10	Katarina Munson	Saline	7.6
8	9	Charley McKay	Brownstown Woodhaven	8.4
9	11	Lillian (Lilli) Schlack	Saline	9.4
10	10	Nina Moore	Ann Arbor Pioneer	10.0
11	10	Iva Ravindra	Temperance Bedford	11.7
12	12	Grace Roth	Saline	11.9
13	9	Adelynn Turck	Saline	12.2
14	11	Eleanor Grant	Wyandotte Roosevelt	15.6
15	9	Annabelle Chan	Brownstown Woodhaven	15.6
16	12	Clara Peikert	Ann Arbor Pioneer	16.2
17	12	Lucy Pike	Ann Arbor Pioneer	16.7
18	12	Raelyn McLaughlin	Brownstown Woodhaven	18.0
19	11	Bridget Kerber	Ann Arbor Pioneer	18.1
20	10	Adrianna Zub	Allen Park	21.0
21	10	Reagan Reaume	Gibraltar Carlson	22.2
22	10	Hope Noal	Brownstown Woodhaven	22.9
23	9	Giada Fioritto	Gibraltar Carlson	23.0
24	10	Sophia Johnson	Temperance Bedford	25.7
25	11	Elliana Perugi	Brownstown Woodhaven	26.9
26	9	Alexis Kmiecik	Brownstown Woodhaven	27.1
27	9	Joy Schuck	Southgate Anderson	27.7
28	12	Mercedes Dziendziel	Wyandotte Roosevelt	28.0
29	9	Livia Boucher	Gibraltar Carlson	28.0
30	11	Anna Coury	Monroe	28.0

Region 6

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Is Farmington’s late season move enough? The Falcons have benefitted from the return of Catherine Steele and the emergence of Kierra Magner. Farmington traveled down 275 for the Huron Invite in an attempt of a course preview, but they cannot come close to the familiarity that the Salem has with Willow, having raced here on three occasions.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Northville	59	1.0	95+	95+	15
2	Ann Arbor Huron	92	2.1		95+	24
3	Farmington	110	3.2		80	30
4	Salem	128	4.3		15	42
5	Livonia Franklin	139	4.9			40
6	Livonia Churchill	152	5.6			45
7	Plymouth	176	7.1			58
8	Canton	199	8.3			65
9	Farmington Hills Mercy	208	8.8			67
10	Livonia Stevenson	230	9.8			78
11	Detroit Renaissance	312	11.3			97
12	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	324	11.7			99
13	Wayne Memorial	364	13.0			111
14	Westland John Glenn	446	14.0			122

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kaelin Hughes	Livonia Stevenson	1.4
2	10	Annabeth Hazlewood	Salem	3.0
3	12	Lucinda Paliani	Ann Arbor Huron	3.8
4	12	Ava Peters	Livonia Franklin	4.2
5	10	Colette Lozo	Northville	4.9
6	12	Cassie Garcia	Northville	6.3
7	11	Rianna Radulescu	Livonia Churchill	6.9
8	11	Mackenzie Dicken	Plymouth	8.2
9	11	Leena Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	10.8
10	11	Becca Jud	Salem	11.7
11	12	Catherine Steele	Farmington	11.7
12	11	Molly Kate Coates	Northville	14.6
13	12	Molly Baracco	Farmington	15.4
14	10	Samantha Bartell	Salem	16.0
15	9	Sadie Bohnsack	Ann Arbor Huron	17.0
16	11	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy	17.5
17	10	Julie Schuessler	Livonia Churchill	18.5
18	11	Annabelle Beloiu	Northville	18.6
19	12	Ilett Martinez	Wayne Memorial	19.2
20	12	Rosa Brody	Canton	20.4
21	11	Kierra Magner	Farmington	20.6
22	10	Mia Carson	Northville	20.9
23	11	Ellie Jasperson	Northville	21.3
24	10	Lucia Lachapelle	Northville	21.9
25	12	Brooklyn Hannah	Livonia Franklin	23.6
26	9	Mira Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron	25.1
27	11	Kinsey Nordbeck	Livonia Franklin	26.6
28	11	Rachael Halkey	Livonia Churchill	28.4
29	10	Katelyn Parrish	Farmington	29.9
30	9	Lucy Morrow	Livonia Franklin	30.1

Region 7

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Sal’s Magic vs. their LVC foe and the host squad. Coming in at 14^th in Oakland County, Milford was appearing down, out, and out of regional contention. But they’ve put it together in the final few weeks, notching a 2^nd place finish at the LVC Championship, six points ahead of Walled Lake Northern. But they’re both chasing Royal Oak, who’ll hope to use their home track and ability to go six deep to their advantage.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	White Lake Lakeland	40	1.0	95+	95+	17
2	Novi	79	2.2		95+	28
3	Royal Oak	101	3.3		69	33
4	Walled Lake Northern	118	4.4		13	43
5	Highland-Milford	124	4.4		21	46
6	Birmingham Seaholm	161	6.2			54
7	Walled Lake Central	179	7.2			56
8	South Lyon East	223	8.1			70
9	South Lyon	247	8.9			80
10	Berkley	254	9.4			57
11	Beverly Hills Groves	278	11.0			86
12	North Farmington	301	11.9			92
13	West Bloomfield	387	13.0			106
14	Walled Lake Western	412	14.0			114

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ava Alicandro	White Lake Lakeland	1.3
2	10	Katelynn Egli	Novi	2.0
3	10	Maya Pletzer	White Lake Lakeland	5.8
4	10	Jillian Broyles	Highland-Milford	6.0
5	10	Emily Alt	Walled Lake Northern	7.6
6	9	Eliana Fredrick	Walled Lake Northern	9.3
7	11	Lauren Bradley	Highland-Milford	10.0
8	10	Morgan Scally	White Lake Lakeland	10.4
9	11	Mya Tass	Novi	10.8
10	10	Anna Macdonald	Royal Oak	12.0
11	12	Cora Liu	North Farmington	12.1
12	10	Genevieve Connolly	White Lake Lakeland	14.6
13	12	Alena Tiernan	White Lake Lakeland	14.8
14	11	Kayla Ward	South Lyon	15.7
15	9	Olivia Peterson	Royal Oak	16.1
16	9	Alexa Siegel	Walled Lake Central	16.6
17	9	Sam Horton	White Lake Lakeland	18.4
18	10	Allie Gallagher	Walled Lake Northern	18.5
19	10	Jane Meinecke	Royal Oak	19.4
20	10	Paige Haller	Walled Lake Central	20.3
21	10	Kareena Babu	Novi	22.0
22	10	Claire Porinsky	South Lyon East	23.1
23	12	Molly Grubb	Birmingham Seaholm	23.5
24	10	Isabelle Verellen	White Lake Lakeland	23.7
25	9	Claire Galas	Novi	26.6
26	9	Mia Maccani	Royal Oak	26.7
27	10	Olivia Dixon	Birmingham Seaholm	27.9
28	11	Carina Tortelli	Novi	28.5
29	12	Joanna Philip	Novi	29.7
30	11	Emma Viggiano	Royal Oak	30.0

Region 8

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The projections themselves appear pretty dang straight forward. Three teams under 100, well separated from the folks in 4^th and above, projected at nearly 120 points or higher. But projections are thrown out the window in the case of an Oakland County Championship, where both Oxford and Troy come in ahead of Clarkston. Two Thursdays ago, wrongs were righted in the Wolves’ minds, finishing ahead of those two teams in the OK Red Final. I’m sure they’re looking for more of the same, the opposite being true for the Wildcats and Colts.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Rochester	49	1.0	95+	95+	7
2	Rochester Adams	78	2.3		95+	19
3	Clarkston	87	2.7		95+	21
4	Oxford	119	4.4			34
5	Troy	125	4.7			38
6	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	157	6.8			47
7	Lake Orion	159	6.9			51
8	Bloomfield Hills	163	7.2			52
9	Troy Athens	240	9.0			77
10	Utica Ford	291	10.0			90
11	Warren Mott	349	11.0			100
12	Waterford Kettering	394	12.5			113
13	Warren Cousino	394	12.5			112
14	Sterling Heights Stevenson	443	14.1			120
15	Waterford Mott	455	14.9			121
16	Sterling Heights	519	16.0			126

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lucy Cook	Rochester	1.6
2	12	Mallory Bigelow	Oxford	2.1
3	11	Ella Abraham	Rochester	3.0
4	11	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	4.0
5	10	El McMahan	Rochester Adams	5.6
6	10	Linda Lopez	Lake Orion	7.8
7	11	Audrey Hamilton	Troy	8.7
8	12	Taylor Brodeur	Oxford	8.8
9	9	Ava Thomas	Rochester Adams	10.4
10	10	Addison Brigham	Clarkston	11.1
11	11	Addison Herr	Bloomfield Hills	11.2
12	9	Charlotte Jones	Rochester	12.4
13	10	Avery DeGrendel	Clarkston	12.8
14	12	Kaitlyn Kauppila	Rochester Adams	12.8
15	11	Taylor Parsons	Rochester	13.7
16	10	Kendal Russette	Clarkston	14.8
17	12	Madie Miller	Troy	17.4
18	10	Olivia Jenney	Bloomfield Hills	17.7
19	11	Cecilia Kreiter	Rochester Adams	17.8
20	12	Stephanie Bulat	Rochester	19.7
21	12	Mia Snellgrove	Rochester	21.3
22	10	Paityn Sweet	Clarkston	23.3
23	10	Annie Roraff	Rochester	25.1
24	10	Natalie Meldrum	Lake Orion	25.9
25	11	Sydney Fischer	Clarkston	25.9
26	12	Meher Deol	Troy Athens	27.1
27	10	Tessa Kozlowski	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	28.5
28	10	Lauren Giroux	Troy	30.0
29	12	Lia Toltzman	Troy	31.6
30	12	Allison Murray	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	32.6

Region 9

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Fraser trying to do it again. Spurred by huge efforts from Kate Molloy and Alice Foley, the Ramblers defied the odds at Macomb County. Those odds have now doubled, but they’re still considered solid underdogs to Macomb Dakota. Listed in the entries for Saturday’s race is Aubrey Rizzo, who missed the County meet and could be a definite help for the Cougar cause. And I’m sure they’ve been stewing over on 21 Mile.

The nerve-racking battle for me is Romeo staying under 16 points. Every single simulation had the Bulldog girls with a perfect score.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Romeo	15	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Utica	73	2.0		95+	16
3	Macomb Dakota	92	3.1		93	23
4	Fraser	108	4.0		7	29
5	Grosse Pointe South	134	4.9			39
6	Utica Eisenhower	186	6.4			60
7	Chippewa Valley	204	7.2			71
8	Port Huron Northern	209	7.6			75
9	L’Anse Creuse North	238	8.8			81
10	Grosse Pointe North	285	10.0			91
11	Anchor Bay	347	11.1			102
12	L’Anse Creuse	373	12.3			107
13	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	374	12.5			108
14	Warren Woods Tower	436	14.0			118
15	Detroit East English	494	15.0			125

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	1.2
2	10	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	2.3
3	12	Lillian Deskins	Romeo	3.8
4	12	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	4.2
5	12	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	4.8
6	11	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	5.3
7	11	Brooke McFarland	Utica	8.3
8	11	Ella Goodsell	Romeo	8.3
9	12	Grace Grupido	Fraser	9.0
10	11	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota	10.5
11	11	Siene Muraszewski	Utica	11.1
12	10	Emma Brown	Utica	11.5
13	12	Sophia Aquino	Utica	12.9
14	10	Aubrey Rizzo	Macomb Dakota	13.4
15	11	Katelyn Frazier	Fraser	17.2
16	12	Julia Timpa	Macomb Dakota	17.2
17	12	Sarah Koval	Grosse Pointe South	18.8
18	10	Lilianna Peace	Chippewa Valley	19.5
19	10	Maggie Baginski	Utica Eisenhower	20.5
20	11	Jacalyn Yakel	Utica Eisenhower	21.2
21	10	Alice Foley	Fraser	22.2
22	11	Samantha Langolf	Port Huron Northern	22.5
23	12	Chloe Caulfield	Grosse Pointe South	22.7
24	12	Savannah Spangler	Grosse Pointe South	26.5
25	12	Mylene Pham	Macomb Dakota	26.6
26	11	Kate Molloy	Fraser	26.9
27	11	Ryann Smitka	Macomb Dakota	27.2
28	12	Adelina Parikh	Grosse Pointe South	29.3
29	10	Kaitlyn Rizzo	Macomb Dakota	29.5
30	12	Charlotte Long	Utica Eisenhower	30.8

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 1

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Grandville vs. the unexpected. Up front, the Livermore tandem is reliable. The OK Red Championship showed that the Bulldogs can go even deeper – all five scorers under 17:05. The team for them to catch is Rockford, who were able to all fall in under 17-flat. A closer gap between the two later in the race may lead to a Grandville upset.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Jenison	39	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	Grand Haven	60	2.0		95+	8
3	Rockford	93	3.1		93	23
4	Grandville	111	4.0		7	29
5	Holland West Ottawa	139	5.5			42
6	Zeeland West	142	5.9			43
7	Hudsonville	152	6.5			50
8	Grand Rapids Northview	246	8.1			83
9	Greenville	262	8.9			88
10	Grand Rapids Union	321	10.1			105
11	Muskegon Reeths-Puffer	334	11.1			108
12	Muskegon Mona Shores	343	11.8			112
13	Wyoming	374	13.0			118
14	Muskegon	460	14.0			135

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Carter Livermore	Grandville	1.4
2	12	Seth Conner	Jenison	1.8
3	10	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	3.7
4	10	Caden Livermore	Grandville	4.2
5	12	Ben Eisnor	Grand Haven	5.0
6	11	Aron Gal	Grand Haven	6.8
7	12	Parker Strelecki	Jenison	6.8
8	12	Mason Lucas	Jenison	7.5
9	12	Matthew Schwartz	Jenison	8.5
10	12	Noah Schuette	Rockford	10.6
11	11	Robert Dodd	Zeeland West	13.0
12	11	Keagan Smith	Zeeland West	13.4
13	11	Caleb TeBrake	Grand Rapids Northview	13.5
14	11	Preston VanOeffelen	Greenville	14.8
15	11	Nolan Wenglikowski	Jenison	15.1
16	10	Bradley Smies	Hudsonville	15.8
17	11	Hayden Lafferty	Rockford	16.3
18	10	Josiah Derksen	Rockford	16.9
19	12	Carson Berko	Grand Haven	18.8
20	12	Levi Jongekryg	Holland West Ottawa	20.3
21	12	Dominic Otto	Jenison	21.0
22	12	Nathan Loser	Rockford	22.2
23	9	Chase Sherman	Jenison	25.0
24	11	Kasen Todtz	Grand Haven	27.0
25	11	Jake Follett	Holland West Ottawa	27.2
26	10	Aaron Ebels	Grandville	29.4
27	12	Caden Karcher	Rockford	29.5
28	12	Dylan Pfeffer	Hudsonville	30.7
29	12	Aidan Ohanyan	Hudsonville	30.7
30	11	Michael Dummer	Holland West Ottawa	31.0

Region 2

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Midland vs. Traverse City West for a qualifying spot. All year, the Chemics have been a welcome surprise, winning early at Northwood and the SVL Championship meet, racing with the big boys at Holly. Traverse City West travels south, hoping to spoil that year-round party. During last week’s Big North Championship, the Titans used the quick Cadillac course to attain PRs from four of their five scorers, nearly knocking off Traverse City Central in the process.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Traverse City Central	65	1.2	82	95+	10
2	Okemos	85	2.2	16	93	20
3	Midland	93	2.8		88	21
4	Traverse City West	108	3.8		19	25
5	Grand Ledge	139	5.2			32
6	Saginaw Heritage	152	5.8			40
7	H.H. Dow	184	7.0			51
8	Alpena	223	8.6			58
9	Bay City Western	225	8.7			61
10	Mt. Pleasant	249	9.9			65
11	East Lansing	274	10.9			71
12	Holt	302	11.9			81
13	Lansing Everett	432	13.2			119
14	Bay City Central	437	13.8			120

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ian Morgan	Okemos	1.8
2	11	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central	2.7
3	10	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West	4.6
4	11	John Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	4.9
5	11	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge	5.5
6	11	Jack Steen	Traverse City Central	6.6
7	9	Alexander Allen	Alpena	7.6
8	12	Ian Boss	Traverse City Central	7.8
9	11	Andrew Worsley	Midland	10.1
10	12	Logan Gehoski	Bay City Western	10.6
11	10	Cameron Cochran	Midland	12.1
12	11	Logan Bellinger	Midland	12.7
13	12	Nathan Beemer	Okemos	15.0
14	11	Hayden Murray	Traverse City West	18.0
15	12	Andrew Kaczmarczyk	Bay City Western	18.3
16	12	Lawrence Cubitt	Traverse City Central	18.8
17	11	Liam Preisser	East Lansing	19.0
18	11	Aidan Simrau	Traverse City West	19.8
19	12	Sam Scott	H.H. Dow	20.1
20	12	Leyton Minuth	H.H. Dow	21.1
21	9	Rylen Richey	Grand Ledge	22.7
22	10	Matthew Wortley	Saginaw Heritage	23.4
23	12	Nathan Wilkinson	Okemos	24.9
24	12	Spencer Porritt	Midland	25.8
25	12	Finley Markle	Okemos	26.7
26	10	Simon Shutt	Okemos	27.1
27	11	Malcolm Cesario	Okemos	27.3
28	9	Finn-Frost Grayson	Traverse City West	27.6
29	11	David Fiore	Saginaw Heritage	28.7
30	12	Andy Castro	H.H. Dow	29.2

Region 3

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Five teams with a real shot of qualifying, three squads with legitimate chances of winning. Samuel Baker’s return has given Kalamazoo Central a major jab in the arm. Filtering for Region 3 teams at both Portage and the SMAC Championship results in a Giant wreck over the competition. Last week, this was all five scorers under 16:15.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Kalamazoo Central	83	1.6	67	88	7
2	East Kentwood	99	2.6	14	78	13
3	Forest Hills Central	99	2.6	13	81	11
4	Portage Central	105	3.4		48	12
5	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	151	5.7		5	30
6	Caledonia	152	5.7			28
7	Lowell	181	7.3			36
8	Forest Hills Northern	183	7.4			35
9	Battle Creek Lakeview	215	8.9			45
10	Byron Center	243	10.0			52
11	Mattawan	274	11.6			63
12	Portage Northern	279	11.8			56
13	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	294	12.6			68

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	1.4
2	10	Ben Romero	Forest Hills Central	4.4
3	12	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	5.3
4	12	Kort Thompson	Caledonia	6.5
5	10	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central	6.8
6	12	Evan Nickoles	East Kentwood	7.4
7	12	Isaac Tanis	East Kentwood	7.9
8	12	Spencer Parker	Portage Central	8.1
9	12	Mitchell Jeruzal	Byron Center	8.6
10	11	Cooper Byrne	Lowell	11.4
11	10	Marshall Huhn	Lowell	12.3
12	10	Justin Johnson	East Kentwood	13.0
13	12	Joseph Spada	Kalamazoo Central	13.5
14	12	Spencer Porter	Forest Hills Northern	14.7
15	11	Owen Fisher	Mattawan	15.0
16	11	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central	16.6
17	11	Nicolas Morales – Sanchez	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	18.1
18	10	Tristan Zhang	Portage Central	19.4
19	11	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central	19.7
20	12	Jacob Sanford	Forest Hills Central	20.3
21	9	Marcus Essling	Portage Central	22.1
22	10	Memphis Connor	Byron Center	22.1
23	10	Matii Tarekegn	East Kentwood	22.8
24	12	Jonah Bills	Battle Creek Lakeview	26.7
25	11	Owen Gifford	Portage Central	27.1
26	11	Logan Westgate	Portage Central	28.1
27	11	Elijah Thompson	Kalamazoo Central	28.6
28	11	Marcel Stork	Mattawan	28.9
29	11	Noah Johnston	Caledonia	29.6
30	11	Nicolas MoralesSan	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	31.2

Region 4

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Howell vs. Ann Arbor Skyline. The top-two spots should go to Brighton, a MIS podium contender and Dexter, an unheralded and reliable team. But Howell has been racing aggressively of late, moving up in the regional rankings thanks to prime performances from David DeLand and Alex Weller. On the other hand, Ann Arbor Skyline comes off an SEC Championship where 30 seconds separated their 1^st and 5^th runners. That sorta pack running can come in handy in a pressure-filled environment.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Brighton	34	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Dexter	100	2.4		95	27
3	Howell	104	2.8		89	26
4	Ann Arbor Skyline	129	4.1		13	41
5	Davison	152	4.9			46
6	Holly	189	6.6			54
7	Grand Blanc	195	6.9			59
8	Hartland	206	7.6			62
9	Flushing	227	9.1			66
10	Fenton	240	9.7			69
11	Lapeer	276	11.0			82
12	Swartz Creek	317	12.1			91
13	Jackson	336	12.9			100

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Jack MacGregor	Howell	1.1
2	12	Tyler Brock	Brighton	2.2
3	12	Julian Linebaugh	Dexter	4.3
4	12	James Latstetter	Flushing	5.5
5	10	Blake Kulesza	Brighton	7.0
6	12	Lucas Wood	Howell	7.2
7	12	Jacob Essenmacher	Lapeer	7.5
8	12	Tyler Outlaw	Brighton	8.3
9	12	Brady Millington	Brighton	8.6
10	11	Zach Wyderko	Brighton	8.7
11	9	Gavin Katic	Fenton	9.3
12	12	Caleb Snyder	Dexter	10.1
13	12	Drake Wallace	Howell	15.1
14	12	Elijah Forbord	Brighton	15.6
15	10	Broden Ladd	Holly	15.8
16	11	Mitchell Cory	Brighton	16.8
17	12	Maxwell Merrill	Grand Blanc	20.9
18	12	Luke Meyer	Davison	21.9
19	10	Coen Hill	Dexter	22.0
20	10	Nicholas Yuan	Ann Arbor Skyline	22.6
21	11	Bruno Cifaldi	Ann Arbor Skyline	24.1
22	11	Noah Linstrom	Davison	24.2
23	11	Braden Shiposh	Hartland	24.6
24	10	Matthew Guikema	Ann Arbor Skyline	24.9
25	10	Trevor Murphy	Holly	25.2
26	12	Landon Whitehead	Dexter	28.0
27	9	Gerard Gilmour	Fenton	28.0
28	11	Jonny Striler	Swartz Creek	29.3
29	10	Levi Mayer	Davison	29.4
30	9	Oskar MacArthur	Ann Arbor Skyline	29.9

Region 5

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Seems… undramatic? Region 5 has always been a story of Saline + Ann Arbor Pioneer, then someone else. That someone else looks to be Temperance Bedford, who placed 4^th in the final SEC Red jamboree. The Mules provide a few frontrunners and then a pack that can work together in the middle of the race.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Saline	36	1.0	95+	95+	4
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	51	2.0		95+	16
3	Temperance Bedford	84	3.0		95+	33
4	Brownstown Woodhaven	105	4.0			47
5	Monroe	136	5.0			57
6	Allen Park	210	6.4			90
7	Dearborn	218	6.9			89
8	Gibraltar Carlson	249	8.1			102
9	Wyandotte Roosevelt	265	8.8			106
10	Dearborn Edsel Ford	305	10.3			116
11	Dearborn Fordson	320	11.0			110
12	Southgate Anderson	337	11.9			117
13	Ypsilanti Lincoln	369	13.6			121
14	Detroit Cass Tech	369	13.6			124
15	Belleville	389	14.6			123
16	Lincoln Park	460	16.0			129
17	Detroit Martin Luther King	553	17.4			136
18	Taylor	555	17.6			137

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	1.0
2	11	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	2.0
3	10	Jacob Szalay	Saline	4.2
4	11	Brennan LaRusso	Saline	4.9
5	11	Pierce Scheffler	Brownstown Woodhaven	6.9
6	9	Mourad Algahmi	Dearborn Fordson	7.0
7	12	Saman Meshinchi	Saline	8.1
8	11	Theo Sacks-Thomas	Ann Arbor Pioneer	8.6
9	10	Cameron Varner	Temperance Bedford	8.7
10	11	Dane Hieronimus	Temperance Bedford	10.5
11	9	Wesley Rogan	Saline	10.6
12	12	Collin Eckermann	Saline	10.7
13	10	John (Jack) Klein	Saline	12.5
14	10	Carlos Basulto	Saline	13.6
15	12	Myles Bray	Monroe	14.9
16	11	Alex Vazquez	Brownstown Woodhaven	15.3
17	11	Quinn Davis	Ann Arbor Pioneer	19.0
18	12	Nicholas (Nick) Balla	Temperance Bedford	19.9
19	10	Vincent Jones	Brownstown Woodhaven	20.9
20	12	Jordan Bunce	Temperance Bedford	21.0
21	11	Parker Bomia-Laberdee	Monroe	21.2
22	11	Thomas DeJesus	Ann Arbor Pioneer	22.1
23	10	Walker Ledbetter	Ann Arbor Pioneer	23.0
24	11	Jason Anderson	Dearborn	26.4
25	10	Logan Thomas	Temperance Bedford	27.0
26	10	Noah Amori	Wyandotte Roosevelt	27.3
27	11	Joshua Riggs	Monroe	29.7
28	12	Maceo Colon	Temperance Bedford	30.4
29	12	Aidan Ortiz	Temperance Bedford	30.5
30	10	Calen Alexander	Brownstown Woodhaven	30.6

Region 6

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Canton vs. the question marks. At the end of September, the Cobras were in the MIS podium conversation. A month later and they’ve had some absences from their team. In spite of those missing, they’ve placed 3^rd in Wayne County and 5^th in the KLAA. With or without runners, Plymouth would be right in the conversation for advancing. I bet if I tracked improvement within a season (and between seasons), the Wildcats would be in contention for the most improved in the state. They find themselves here in the top-10 in the state and seemingly still growing.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Northville	26	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Livonia Churchill	70	2.1		95+	5
3	Plymouth	82	3.2		72	9
4	Canton	88	3.7		29	14
5	Salem	118	5.0			24
6	Ann Arbor Huron	162	6.0			44
7	Livonia Stevenson	240	7.3			73
8	Farmington	251	8.0			79
9	Detroit U-D Jesuit	261	8.7			87
10	Detroit Renaissance	318	10.3			103
11	Livonia Franklin	334	11.6			113
12	Westland John Glenn	341	12.0			109
13	Wayne Memorial	341	12.0			111
14	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	442	14.1			128
15	Ferndale	458	14.9			130
16	Detroit Mumford	510	16.0			138

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	1.0
2	12	Ethan Powell	Northville	2.2
3	12	Joseph Rohmfeld	Livonia Churchill	3.2
4	11	Ben Hartigan	Northville	3.8
5	10	Brandon Cloud	Northville	6.6
6	12	Nick Barretto	Northville	6.7
7	12	Ishaan Kundapur	Northville	6.8
8	12	Chase Wolters	Livonia Churchill	8.1
9	11	Lucas LaPointe	Plymouth	10.5
10	12	Jack Chadwick	Plymouth	10.6
11	12	Ben Mussen	Plymouth	11.9
12	12	Malcolm Speigle	Livonia Churchill	12.8
13	11	Steven Dusseau	Canton	13.4
14	11	Ethan Hertza	Northville	13.7
15	12	Walker Brose	Ann Arbor Huron	16.8
16	10	Jack Hanner	Salem	17.1
17	11	Adrian Clarke	Plymouth	17.5
18	11	Ryan Stojov	Northville	18.2
19	12	Ben Clark	Canton	19.1
20	10	Austin Mercado	Salem	20.5
21	12	Adam Dicken	Canton	20.8
22	12	Isaac Demetter	Salem	22.3
23	11	Hudson Wojtkowicz	Livonia Churchill	22.7
24	12	Jonah Kraft	Ann Arbor Huron	23.6
25	12	Benjamin Peura	Farmington	23.7
26	12	Ethan Morche	Livonia Churchill	23.9
27	12	Aaron Messing	Livonia Stevenson	28.5
28	12	Teo Condevaux	Livonia Churchill	29.8
29	11	Max Frentner	Salem	30.7
30	11	Daniel Niehaus	Plymouth	31.2

Region 7

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

True proximity in these rivalries. White Lake Lakeland and Highland-Milford are LVC foes. This year’s iteration of the LVC was won by Lakeland, winning both their dual and the championship meet, where the Eagles were able to dot the top-seven with four of their athletes. Close in the mid-season, even closer now, Novi has snuck by Detroit Catholic Central in the projections.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	White Lake Lakeland	51	1.4	60	95+	17
2	Highland-Milford	55	1.6	40	95+	18
3	Novi	100	3.5		53	39
4	Detroit Catholic Central	102	3.5		47	34
5	Walled Lake Northern	134	5.0			49
6	Royal Oak	165	5.9			55
7	South Lyon	213	7.1			70
8	South Lyon East	238	8.0			75
9	Beverly Hills Groves	267	8.9			86
10	West Bloomfield	301	10.0			92
11	Birmingham Seaholm	342	11.4			101
12	Brother Rice	347	11.8			97
13	Berkley	369	13.1			104
14	North Farmington	381	13.9			107
15	Walled Lake Western	422	15.2			115
16	Walled Lake Central	443	15.5			122

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	1.0
2	12	Drew Abbott	Detroit Catholic Central	2.4
3	11	Gavin Johns	White Lake Lakeland	5.2
4	12	Matthew Verellen	White Lake Lakeland	5.4
5	11	Bastien Beaubien	Highland-Milford	6.2
6	10	Trevor Baptist	Novi	8.1
7	9	Todd Tobin	Highland-Milford	9.9
8	12	Nolan Till	Royal Oak	9.9
9	10	Musa Kay	West Bloomfield	10.0
10	12	Ayden McDonald	White Lake Lakeland	11.0
11	11	Soma Sato	Novi	11.6
12	11	Finn Gammerath	Walled Lake Northern	12.2
13	11	Nolan Collins	Brother Rice	12.5
14	12	Jacob Kosidlo	White Lake Lakeland	13.8
15	12	Chase Griffith	Walled Lake Northern	15.3
16	10	Briggs Warren	Novi	17.2
17	11	Gavin Tisch	Detroit Catholic Central	18.0
18	12	Michael Nivala	White Lake Lakeland	18.6
19	12	Thomas Watson	Detroit Catholic Central	19.3
20	10	Josh Sanchez	Highland-Milford	21.7
21	11	Dylan Doggett	Highland-Milford	22.6
22	11	Isaac German	Novi	24.2
23	11	Brenden Humitz	White Lake Lakeland	24.9
24	10	Nathan Bruss	Walled Lake Northern	25.0
25	11	Aiden LaVictor	Beverly Hills Groves	26.1
26	12	Ryan Carrannanto	Highland-Milford	26.1
27	12	Liam Wyman	South Lyon	26.4
28	9	Nikhil Ball	South Lyon East	27.4
29	12	Evan Kelly	Highland-Milford	28.2
30	12	Jacob Mack	South Lyon East	29.7

Region 8

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Troy and Rochester going at it for the final spot. Ranked right near each other in the state standings, separated a bit with regard to the region. Troy finds a major advantage by having six boys that could contend for four scoring spots, insurance in the case of a poor race. I wouldn’t discount the Falcons though, as they’re coming off an OAA White victory and they showed the ability in track to show up on regional day.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Clarkston	54	1.1	89	95+	6
2	Oxford	67	1.9	11	95+	15
3	Troy	103	3.1		87	38
4	Rochester	115	3.9		13	37
5	Lake Orion	143	5.1			48
6	Troy Athens	162	5.9			53
7	Utica Ford	229	7.7			72
8	Rochester Adams	234	8.0			77
9	Sterling Heights Stevenson	252	9.6			80
10	Bloomfield Hills	254	9.6			76
11	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	260	10.2			85
12	Warren Cousino	304	12.0			94
13	Waterford Kettering	382	13.0			114
14	Waterford Mott	439	14.1			125
15	Warren Mott	466	14.9			126
16	Auburn Hills Avondale	501	16.2			131
17	Sterling Heights	509	16.9			133

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Alex McArthur	Oxford	1.7
2	12	Taye Levenson	Bloomfield Hills	2.3
3	12	Kian Schneeweis	Troy	3.2
4	11	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston	4.6
5	12	James Cusick	Oxford	4.7
6	12	Cayden DeGrendel	Clarkston	6.1
7	11	Nate Linden	Troy Athens	8.5
8	11	Max Houvener	Lake Orion	8.8
9	12	Collin McLaughlin	Rochester	10.0
10	12	Maxton Myrand	Oxford	11.1
11	11	David Dubeck	Clarkston	11.3
12	11	Dylan Pascoe	Rochester	11.5
13	12	Jaxson Nowik	Clarkston	11.5
14	11	Evan Owczarek	Rochester	11.6
15	12	Raymond Lucero II	Lake Orion	15.6
16	12	Myles Linden	Troy Athens	16.0
17	12	Aiden Baugh	Waterford Kettering	18.0
18	12	Akshat Arora	Troy	19.8
19	9	Cooper McNaughton	Clarkston	20.9
20	11	Cayden Canham	Oxford	22.3
21	11	Aaron Hemstreet	Warren Cousino	22.9
22	12	John Lonsway	Sterling Heights Stevenson	23.0
23	12	Jack Tultz	Clarkston	24.5
24	12	Kent Wilson	Clarkston	25.1
25	11	Isaac Clark	Troy	26.1
26	12	Braden Cinato	Warren Cousino	28.5
27	10	Zach Shaffer	Utica Ford	28.9
28	9	Ricardo Guajardo	Lake Orion	29.5
29	12	Jack Dysarz	Oxford	29.6
30	10	Henry Witt	Troy	30.5
31	12	Austin Xiao	Troy	31.7

Region 9

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Utica, hoping to repeat the feat from two weeks back. At Eastwood in mid-October, spurred by a dominant top-two, the Chieftains were able to capture the County crown. With two weeks to celebrate and bask in the glory of their accomplishment, they could benefit from the gained confidence. On the other hand, a Romeo or Macomb Dakota may have spent these past two weeks stewing and concocting a strategy to pull an upset.  

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Utica	59	1.4	68	95+	19
2	Macomb Dakota	65	1.9	29	95+	22
3	Romeo	81	2.8		95+	31
4	Grosse Pointe South	167	4.5			60
5	Utica Eisenhower	178	5.3			64
6	Fraser	180	5.3			67
7	Anchor Bay	222	7.7			74
8	Warren DeLaSalle	222	7.9			78
9	Grosse Pointe North	231	8.3			84
10	L’Anse Creuse North	273	10.6			95
11	L’Anse Creuse	287	11.6			93
12	Chippewa Valley	292	12.0			96
13	Port Huron Northern	300	12.8			99
14	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	301	13.0			98
15	Roseville	467	15.0			127
16	Warren Woods Tower	515	16.2			132
17	Detroit East English	527	16.8			134

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Harper Wesley	Utica	1.8
2	12	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	1.8
3	12	Luke Morehouse	Utica	2.8
4	11	James Brickel	Romeo	6.1
5	12	Gavin Frandle	Utica	8.7
6	11	Owen Perry	Romeo	9.1
7	12	Jack Martin	Grosse Pointe South	9.3
8	11	Luke Allen	Romeo	10.9
9	11	Lance Edghill	Fraser	12.2
10	12	Aidan Daly	L’Anse Creuse	12.5
11	11	Charlie Curtis	Utica	13.1
12	11	Anthony Frei	Utica Eisenhower	13.2
13	12	Jensen McCutcheon	St. Clair Shores Lakeview	13.9
14	11	Joseph Kaleto	Macomb Dakota	14.5
15	11	Andrew Scheloske	Macomb Dakota	15.1
16	12	Greg Vogt	Anchor Bay	15.3
17	11	Oliver Davis	Macomb Dakota	15.8
18	11	Aaron Osterman	Anchor Bay	17.7
19	12	Colden Gray	Utica Eisenhower	19.2
20	9	Xavier Solgot	L’Anse Creuse North	19.8
21	12	Noah Redman	Macomb Dakota	21.3
22	11	Jacob Giovannini	Macomb Dakota	22.2
23	12	Alex Habarth	L’Anse Creuse	23.0
24	12	Tethyan McKenzie	Grosse Pointe South	23.2
25	12	Caleb Kosel	Grosse Pointe North	26.3
26	11	Nathan Kafoury	Warren DeLaSalle	27.3
27	11	Malcolm Richardson	Warren DeLaSalle	28.0
28	11	Eric DeWaele	Chippewa Valley	28.9
29	10	Carson Hlavin	Romeo	29.7
30	12	Colton Howell	Macomb Dakota	29.8