Category: Uncategorized

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 10

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The venerable Spring Lake girls vs. a late-rising Ludington. The Orioles are a bit faster up front, Annabelle Lowman and Nadia Grierson both showing the capability of running in the low-19’s or faster. The Laker strength is in the middle of their lineup. During last week’s OK Black Championship, Spring Lake was able to place six girls under 20:35.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Spring Lake	79	1.5	57	95+	11
2	Ludington	82	1.7	42	95+	13
3	Cadillac	98	2.9		95+	15
4	Cedar Springs	146	4.8			33
5	Petoskey	153	5.2			39
6	Fruitport	157	5.5			38
7	Fremont	185	7.7			50
8	Gladwin	185	7.7			49
9	Whitehall	197	8.7			55
10	Gaylord	211	9.5			58
11	Sparta	242	10.8			80
12	Howard City Tri-County	312	12.0			91
13	Big Rapids	381	13.0			104
14	Ogemaw Heights	458	14.0			115

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord	1.0
2	10	Mia May	Sparta	2.6
3	10	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington	3.2
4	11	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac	4.3
5	12	Nadia Grierson	Ludington	5.2
6	11	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake	6.6
7	10	Ella McInerney	Cadillac	7.3
8	11	Linnea Paige	Fremont	7.6
9	12	Abby Robinson	Gladwin	8.8
10	9	Kaleigh Clark	Spring Lake	10.2
11	12	Camille (Cami) Kraai	Whitehall	11.3
12	11	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey	12.5
13	9	Chloe Mazza	Cadillac	14.1
14	10	Abby Noorman	Cedar Springs	16.7
15	12	Valerie Pollock	Fruitport	16.7
16	12	Lillian Binger	Gladwin	17.0
17	12	Adalyn Britton	Whitehall	18.1
18	9	Addy Nesbitt	Cedar Springs	18.9
19	10	Cora Parker	Spring Lake	20.3
20	11	Meghan Guczwa	Spring Lake	20.7
21	12	Summer Brower	Ludington	22.5
22	12	Lexie Ruffing	Spring Lake	23.9
23	9	Peyhton Beardsley	Fruitport	23.9
24	12	Autumn Brower	Ludington	25.2
25	12	Bethany Zimmerman	Spring Lake	25.8
26	12	Fiona Scott	Petoskey	26.8
27	11	Elisabeth Pauls	Petoskey	30.6
28	9	Briella Kohley	Spring Lake	30.7
29	10	Allison Brandt	Ludington	30.8
30	10	Kendall Nester	Cedar Springs	30.9

Region 11

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Really nothing? The projected top three squads are all so strong that they *shouldn’t* be challenged. Now, watch there be an upset.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Zeeland East	27	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Holland Christian	48	2.0		95+	6
3	Hudsonville Unity Christian	66	3.0		95+	10
4	Coopersville	113	4.0			21
5	Holland	194	5.9			62
6	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	196	6.1			59
7	Hopkins	198	6.6			67
8	Allendale	222	8.3			81
9	Grand Rapids West Catholic	223	8.6			75
10	Hamilton	234	9.5			82
11	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	343	11.0			103
12	Grand River Preparatory	377	12.1			108
13	Comstock Park	394	13.2			111
14	Wyoming Lee	404	13.7			114

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Emma Drnek	Zeeland East	1.0
2	9	Adalyn Raab	Zeeland East	2.6
3	11	Marie Gates	Hudsonville Unity Christian	3.2
4	9	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian	4.0
5	11	Meredith Cook	Zeeland East	4.4
6	9	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville	6.7
7	10	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian	6.7
8	11	Taryn DiLaura	Zeeland East	9.1
9	11	Megan Kuzma	Zeeland East	9.8
10	12	Sierra Grooters	Hudsonville Unity Christian	10.3
11	11	Layla Geurink	Holland Christian	10.3
12	10	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian	12.8
13	9	Lexi Gibson	Holland	14.0
14	9	Annika Stob	Holland Christian	14.3
15	12	Grace Mckinney	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	16.0
16	12	Maddie Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	16.4
17	11	Sadie Schout	Hudsonville Unity Christian	16.7
18	9	Addison Bixler	Coopersville	17.3
19	11	Olivia Droski	Coopersville	21.5
20	10	Carly Bruxvoort	Hudsonville Unity Christian	22.2
21	12	Maya VanSolkema	Hudsonville Unity Christian	23.2
22	9	Ava Knot	Holland Christian	23.5
23	9	Sophie Jones	Holland Christian	25.3
24	12	Kambria Moored	Hopkins	27.1
25	11	Allison Breining	Hopkins	27.3
26	10	Noelle Wielhouwer	Hudsonville Unity Christian	27.4
27	11	Emily Graves	Zeeland East	28.3
28	12	Ellie Francis	Allendale	28.7
29	SR	Ambria Depoy	Holland	28.8
30	12	Katherine Ptak	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	29.9

Region 12

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Can the home course advantage play in the favor of the Sailors? Every year Grand Rapids South Christian seemingly qualifies a team as an underdog. They’re definitely peaking at the right time, eight days off dominating the OK Gold Championship. Forest Hills Eastern will be a tough out, well-coached and battle-tested.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Grand Rapids Christian	37	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	East Grand Rapids	66	2.0		95+	7
3	Forest Hills Eastern	98	3.2		83	12
4	Grand Rapids South Christian	111	3.8		17	14
5	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	169	5.8			28
6	Richland Gull Lake	171	6.0			35
7	Plainwell	175	6.2			29
8	GR West Michigan Aviation	241	8.4			64
9	Portland	247	8.7			60
10	Belding	279	10.0			79
11	Battle Creek Pennfield	320	11.3			90
12	Hastings	342	12.2			96
13	Ionia	357	13.1			95
14	Wayland Union	370	13.4			101
15	Lake Odessa Lakewood	435	15.0			110

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian	1.9
2	10	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	2.3
3	10	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	3.6
4	11	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian	4.0
5	12	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	5.2
6	12	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	6.6
7	11	Annika TerBeek	Grand Rapids Christian	8.0
8	10	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	9.5
9	11	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian	10.5
10	11	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	11.5
11	9	Tiffany DeMaagd	Grand Rapids South Christian	13.3
12	10	Lucy Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian	13.8
13	11	Madelyn Baar	East Grand Rapids	15.5
14	10	Ahna Woltjer	GR West Michigan Aviation	15.8
15	10	Sofia Lewis	GR West Michigan Aviation	16.4
16	10	Caroline Randall	Hastings	18.3
17	12	Marlina Howell	Forest Hills Eastern	18.3
18	11	Rory Workman	East Grand Rapids	18.5
19	12	Claire Vos	Plainwell	18.8
20	10	Ainsley Sullivan	Forest Hills Eastern	19.6
21	9	Lydia Visker	Grand Rapids Christian	21.5
22	12	Avery Wezensky	Portland	22.4
23	9	Lily Phillips	Forest Hills Eastern	22.9
24	10	Clare Assaf	East Grand Rapids	23.7
25	9	Mai Nguyen	Plainwell	25.4
26	9	Vivienne Conflitti	Forest Hills Eastern	25.7
27	12	Mackenzie Zahm	Belding	27.1
28	11	Lydia Huisman	Grand Rapids South Christian	27.4
29	9	Joy Van Wyk	Grand Rapids Christian	31.1
30	11	Catherine Schellhammer	East Grand Rapids	31.6

Region 13

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Paw Paw trying to swoop in and claim that third spot. The Red Wolves really let it rip at last week’s Wolverine Conference meet, receiving a season’s best or better from five girls. 4^th place and a performance that if repeated, could pave the way for a trip east to MIS.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Otsego	31	1.0	95+	95+	5
2	Sturgis	91	2.3		95+	17
3	St. Joseph	108	3.3		65	25
4	Paw Paw	125	4.0		31	36
5	Stevensville Lakeshore	127	4.5		7	34
6	Marshall	179	6.2			52
7	Battle Creek Harper Creek	209	8.0			61
8	Niles	211	8.1			74
9	Three Rivers	216	8.4			68
10	Edwardsburg	231	9.4			78
11	Berrien Springs	278	11.0			86
12	Coldwater	321	12.3			92
13	Dowagiac Union	338	13.2			97
14	Vicksburg	343	13.4			98

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Emma Hoffman	Otsego	1.0
2	11	Berkley Holtz	Sturgis	2.0
3	9	Audrey Kline	St. Joseph	3.9
4	12	Taylor Mitchell	Otsego	4.7
5	10	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego	6.2
6	11	Sydney Bir	Sturgis	7.1
7	12	Madison Johnson	Paw Paw	7.4
8	11	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego	8.3
9	11	Julia Faber	Battle Creek Harper Creek	8.7
10	11	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis	11.9
11	11	Beatrice Perucchetti	St. Joseph	12.4
12	12	Taylor Klimp	Otsego	13.9
13	10	Hayden Lemieux	Paw Paw	14.4
14	10	Madeline Goodwin	Otsego	15.0
15	12	Kaylee Sprague	Stevensville Lakeshore	17.8
16	12	Charlie Drew	Niles	19.4
17	10	Sydney Timmons	Otsego	19.9
18	12	Preslee Perkins	Stevensville Lakeshore	20.1
19	9	Alaina Dillon	Marshall	20.2
20	11	Jayden VandenAkker	Allegan	20.5
21	9	Gweneth Eby	Coldwater	20.6
22	11	Leah McPartlin	Marshall	21.1
23	9	San Juanita Vargas	Paw Paw	24.0
24	9	Rylee Zumer	Battle Creek Harper Creek	24.6
25	12	Annika DeJong	Stevensville Lakeshore	25.2
26	12	Sadie Ebel	St. Joseph	26.3
27	10	Lily Cummings	St. Joseph	27.2
28	11	Kate Ort	Stevensville Lakeshore	29.0
29	10	Eleanor Park	Sturgis	30.7
30	10	Brynn Copenhaver	Three Rivers	31.7

Region 14

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Love the varied teams that could make it one more week. Any combination of DeWitt + Owosso, St. Johns, Williamston, Mason, or even a Charlotte could advance. Perhaps we could look to the CAAC Red, whose final jamboree was won by the Redwings. A low stick in Ava Schafer plus power from the 2^nd and 3^rd spots was enough to hold off Williamson, Mason, and Haslett.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	DeWitt	35	1.0	95+	95+	4
2	Owosso	123	2.7		84	20
3	St. Johns	134	3.7		48	27
4	Williamston	143	4.6		31	30
5	Mason	147	4.9		21	32
6	Alma	156	5.8			43
7	Charlotte	159	6.3		9	44
8	Haslett	173	7.3			46
9	Parma Western	206	9.0			54
10	Corunna	244	10.8			66
11	Fowlerville	248	10.9			76
12	Eaton Rapids	249	11.1			72
13	Lansing Waverly	433	13.4			112
14	Lansing Eastern	436	13.6			113

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Ava Schafer	St. Johns	1.0
2	12	Ayla Holben	DeWitt	2.4
3	9	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids	3.9
4	12	Mia Williams	DeWitt	4.3
5	12	Kayla Williams	DeWitt	5.4
6	12	Joy Evans	Alma	5.5
7	12	Nicole Schafer	Williamston	8.2
8	11	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns	9.0
9	9	Aurora Doepker	DeWitt	11.2
10	10	Sophia Schafer	Williamston	12.2
11	12	Autumn Thompson	DeWitt	14.5
12	12	Josie Jenkinson	Owosso	14.9
13	12	Julionna West	Owosso	15.8
14	10	Morgan Allen	Mason	15.9
15	12	Hayven Thiel	Corunna	16.4
16	11	Isabella Taber	DeWitt	17.9
17	11	Maria Beach	Fowlerville	18.6
18	10	Colette Charchut	Haslett	19.0
19	11	Natalie Kramer	St. Johns	19.6
20	11	Reese Supianoski	Williamston	20.0
21	12	Natalie Summerland	Owosso	21.5
22	11	Chloe Khon	Jackson Northwest	21.8
23	9	Delilah White	Haslett	22.0
24	10	Avery Silvas	Charlotte	23.3
25	12	Morgan Ashcroft	DeWitt	24.3
26	9	Jorga Wooledge	Mason	29.0
27	9	Ruby Petee	Mason	29.0
28	10	Eliza Milarch	Charlotte	30.0
29	10	Jaidyn Nickels	Corunna	30.8
30	10	Helena Goodrich	Charlotte	31.7

Region 15

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Bluejay magic vs. the odds. Frankenmuth has been a reliable team all year, placing 2^nd in the TVC Red, Greater Flint, and Saginaw County. A young Shepherd team has been accelerating towards the finish, buoyed by the emergence of Cailyn Baker, winning the JPC yet again.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Goodrich	34	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Freeland	68	2.0		95+	9
3	Frankenmuth	93	3.1		90	16
4	Shepherd	105	3.9		10	19
5	Flint Powers Catholic	129	5.0			41
6	Imlay City	222	6.4			88
7	Saginaw Swan Valley	230	7.2			87
8	Flint Kearsley	234	7.6			89
9	Birch Run	254	9.1			93
10	Ortonville Brandon	266	10.0			100
11	Essexville-Garber	281	11.3			102
12	Bay City John Glenn	285	11.5			106

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	1.2
2	11	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth	2.4
3	10	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich	3.8
4	12	Grace Evanoff	Flint Powers Catholic	3.9
5	12	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich	5.6
6	12	Layla Jordan	Goodrich	7.0
7	9	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich	7.5
8	10	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	9.0
9	9	Danica Redes	Shepherd	9.1
10	12	Karie Keefer	Freeland	10.1
11	10	Claire Brown	Goodrich	10.7
12	11	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth	12.7
13	12	Avery Byrne	Goodrich	14.1
14	10	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	14.6
15	10	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich	14.8
16	12	Grace Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic	15.0
17	11	Jada Prescott	Freeland	15.8
18	9	Cailyn Baker	Shepherd	16.8
19	12	Reese Beery	Saginaw Swan Valley	19.0
20	9	Gabriella Dallas	Freeland	20.5
21	12	Landrey Kuhn	Freeland	20.8
22	9	Ellie Thering	Freeland	22.7
23	10	Isabel Reinke	Freeland	23.1
24	11	Emilee Young	Shepherd	25.4
25	12	Gracie Warner	Shepherd	26.6
26	9	Sofia Sporman	Flint Kearsley	27.3
27	9	Mila Villarreal	Flint Powers Catholic	28.6
28	11	Megan Gimmey	Shepherd	29.0
29	10	Molly Gaudard	Flint Kearsley	29.4
30	10	Aubrey Hare	Saginaw Swan Valley	29.9

Region 16

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Another region with a ton of teams in the mix to qualify and/or win. This is a rarity though – Pinckney has over a 50% chance to qualify, but they’re slotted in the 4^th spot. This what happens when there are four teams ranked between 22^nd and 26^th.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Dearborn Divine Child	83	1.6	64	95+	22
2	Linden	91	2.8	15	67	23
3	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	91	3.0	6	63	24
4	Pinckney	94	3.3	12	53	26
5	Detroit Country Day	108	4.4		18	37
6	Bloomfield Hills Marian	170	6.9			63
7	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	173	7.1			69
8	Oak Park	187	7.9			73
9	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	190	8.2			77
10	Lake Fenton	224	10.0			84
11	Garden City	330	11.0			107
12	Detroit Cody	392	12.0			119

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney	1.2
2	12	Mea D’Agostino	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	2.4
3	10	Addison Josephson	Linden	3.1
4	12	Madalynn Karsies	Pinckney	5.0
5	10	Melody Meckstroth	Linden	5.8
6	12	Maria Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	5.9
7	12	Nell Stover	Detroit Country Day	8.3
8	12	Skylar Vanhecke	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	9.2
9	10	Sidney Shepard	Linden	9.4
10	12	Kathryn Kurtinaitis	Dearborn Divine Child	10.2
11	9	Janae Coleman	Oak Park	13.2
12	12	Kayla Slade	Dearborn Divine Child	13.8
13	11	Annabelle Ellenbogen	Detroit Country Day	14.9
14	12	Tess Scicluna	Dearborn Divine Child	15.5
15	9	Eastynn Charder	Pinckney	16.3
16	11	Anna Kujansuu	Dearborn Divine Child	16.7
17	10	Diya Goyal	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	17.5
18	12	Claire Heller	Detroit Country Day	18.1
19	9	Ana Lovell	Lake Fenton	18.3
20	10	Paige Willman	Lake Fenton	20.0
21	9	Leah Krzeszewski	Bloomfield Hills Marian	22.0
22	9	Molly Roberts	Linden	23.0
23	12	Dayshana Kellogg	Oak Park	23.5
24	10	Claire Dunn	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	23.8
25	12	Mary Larocca	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	25.3
26	11	Elizabeth Salinas	Dearborn Divine Child	27.4
27	11	Catherine Kipila	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	28.9
28	10	Flora Ramos	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	30.2
29	12	Ella Schueller	Detroit Country Day	30.4
30	10	Lucille Clark	Bloomfield Hills Marian	30.4

Region 17

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The dead heat between Armada and Croswell-Lexington. The two BWAC teams have met up in the three conference jamborees. Armada captured the first and third ones, Cros-Lex the middle one. The Pioneers will need someone beyond their top-4 to break up the Tiger pack, which is typically overwhelming enough to buy a victory.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Macomb Lutheran North	65	1.3	71	95+	40
2	St. Clair	73	1.7	29	95+	45
3	Croswell-Lexington	105	3.7		45	51
4	Armada	107	3.9		46	56
5	Warren Regina	117	5.0			65
6	Yale	125	5.5		5	71
7	Marysville	157	7.0			83
8	Madison Heights Lamphere	215	8.1			94
9	Richmond	228	8.9			99
10	Detroit University Prep	293	10.0			109
11	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	350	11.3			117
12	Harper Woods	356	11.7			118
13	Detroit Southeastern Tech	373	13.0			120

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Eva Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	1.0
2	12	Brooklyn Khon	Armada	2.8
3	10	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North	3.0
4	12	Natalie Lentine	Warren Regina	4.7
5	12	Brynn Hurley	Croswell-Lexington	6.0
6	12	Elizabeth Ambroggio	Warren Regina	6.2
7	9	Saige Cole	Yale	8.7
8	10	Ella Thornton	St. Clair	11.0
9	12	Allie Komarowski	St. Clair	11.7
10	10	Hannah Haines	Madison Heights Lamphere	11.8
11	12	Lillian Rutallie	Marysville	12.3
12	10	Evelyn Buckley	Macomb Lutheran North	12.5
13	11	Molly McNabb	St. Clair	13.9
14	10	Gabriella Komarowski	St. Clair	14.8
15	9	Chloe Boright	Macomb Lutheran North	16.1
16	10	Lillian Bender	Yale	16.9
17	11	Abigail Denoyer	Armada	16.9
18	9	Lucy Gump	Macomb Lutheran North	17.3
19	11	Pauline Chapman	Richmond	18.7
20	10	Helena Reiff	Armada	19.5
21	10	Avery Stallmann	Macomb Lutheran North	19.7
22	12	Isabella LaPerriere	Macomb Lutheran North	19.7
23	12	Addison Stevens	Marysville	21.1
24	12	Eden Brewer	St. Clair	23.2
25	9	Madelyn Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	23.5
26	10	Ava Childers	Yale	25.7
27	9	Hailey Morrison	Croswell-Lexington	28.2
28	9	Jade Siy	Madison Heights Lamphere	30.0
29	10	Abbey Morabito	St. Clair	32.2
30	9	Rachel McDonell	St. Clair	32.2

Region 18

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Gonna be a test of who has the better depth, Carleton Airport or Chelsea. Through four runners, the scores appear fairly even. Chelsea’s depth is rapidly improving, Airport’s is senior-laden and experienced.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Adrian	48	1.0	95+	95+	8
2	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	85	2.0		95+	18
3	Carleton Airport	112	3.3		71	31
4	Chelsea	121	3.9		29	42
5	Trenton	144	5.7			47
6	Tecumseh	146	5.9			48
7	New Boston Huron	158	6.9			53
8	Milan	168	7.6			57
9	Dundee	188	8.8			70
10	Grosse Ile	227	10.0			85
11	Ypsilanti Community	308	11.0			105
12	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	389	12.0			116

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Courtney Bovair	Carleton Airport	1.0
2	12	Sophy Skeels	Adrian	2.4
3	10	Ayda Skeels	Adrian	2.7
4	9	Madison Petty	Adrian	4.4
5	11	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron	7.1
6	12	Natalia DeMea	Chelsea	8.6
7	11	Evelyn Kuhn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	8.8
8	10	Monica Lynn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	8.9
9	SR	Marisa Chuey	Trenton	9.1
10	11	Amerie Wilson	Milan	9.5
11	10	Bridget Fidkowski	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	9.9
12	9	Karina Mihai-Grammes	Adrian	10.1
13	9	Ella Baker	Carleton Airport	13.4
14	12	Kaylee Hovey	Dundee	14.3
15	11	Samantha Bieber	Chelsea	15.0
16	11	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron	17.4
17	12	Madison Morris	Tecumseh	17.8
18	9	Allison Ost	Dundee	19.0
19	12	Devyn Dorey	Trenton	19.4
20	9	Jamie Glatfelter	Trenton	19.7
21	11	Kaily McDaniel	Milan	21.5
22	11	Alyssa Korte	Grosse Ile	23.9
23	10	Kayla Christesen	New Boston Huron	24.2
24	12	Lauren Thompson	Chelsea	24.7
25	11	Brenna Baker	Carleton Airport	28.2
26	10	Zora Ziolkowski	Chelsea	28.2
27	10	Ava Pfaffenbach	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	28.7
28	11	Claire Cousineau	Tecumseh	29.1
29	9	Klair Baker	Adrian	29.3
30	9	Jaelynn Greene	Carleton Airport	30.2

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 10

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

As I had anticipated over the summer, Region 10 will be competitive both for attaining a trip to MIS and hoisting a regional championship trophy. Fremont has moved into the 3^rd spot here, greatly helped by the improved efforts of Mossen Green, a sophomore who has moved into the 17’s for his past three races. Sparta had been ranked well all year, but unfortunately seems to be missing one of their top contributors. Though an extremely quick top-three gives them a chance to put some distance on the Packers.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Cedar Springs	92	1.2	80	95+	10
2	Gladwin	105	2.2	15	95+	12
3	Fremont	122	3.1		74	20
4	Sparta	135	4.2		22	21
5	Spring Lake	150	5.4			25
6	Petoskey	157	5.8			27
7	Whitehall	168	6.8			32
8	Howard City Tri-County	186	8.1			33
9	Ludington	202	9.2			40
10	Big Rapids	202	9.2			39
11	Muskegon Oakridge	267	11.1			70
12	Cadillac	289	12.0			62
13	Fruitport	305	12.9			80
14	Gaylord	413	14.0			108
15	Muskegon Orchard View	460	15.0			118

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Elijah Christensen	Gladwin	1.3
2	12	Seth Mead	Gladwin	2.7
3	11	Owen Metzger	Sparta	3.7
4	12	Vincent Pollock	Fruitport	4.1
5	12	Stewart Waters	Whitehall	5.5
6	11	Ethan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	6.6
7	12	Carter Sherman	Fremont	7.7
8	12	Justin Bradford	Sparta	8.6
9	12	Hayden Gould	Big Rapids	9.3
10	12	Parker Woodwyk	Spring Lake	9.8
11	11	Ben Verellen	Gladwin	11.1
12	10	Peyton Farrell	Cedar Springs	14.8
13	12	Peyton Ruel	Muskegon Oakridge	15.1
14	11	Hunter Parsons	Whitehall	16.2
15	10	Reeve Oberman	Petoskey	16.6
16	11	Carson Wood	Sparta	17.2
17	12	Cole Lowery	Fremont	17.4
18	11	Aiden Weller	Cedar Springs	17.5
19	11	Zahar Rush	Petoskey	21.7
20	12	Parker Fettig	Petoskey	22.8
21	12	Andrew Boeringa	Whitehall	24.1
22	10	Bryce Falbe	Muskegon Oakridge	24.4
23	12	Blake Taylor	Fremont	25.3
24	11	Alex Culver	Howard City Tri-County	25.7
25	12	David Reisterer	Ludington	26.5
26	10	Myles Robinson	Gladwin	26.8
27	10	Gabe Grierson	Ludington	27.3
28	9	Tadhg Shoffner	Cedar Springs	27.6
29	9	Declan Shoffner	Cedar Springs	31.5
30	11	Lukus Mendoza	Spring Lake	32.5

Region 11

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The concentration of a great running community bears its head in the individual race, where Jeb Hillary, Kilian Whalen, and Will Engbers are all candidates to win. Portage was home to all three, with Engbers nabbing a PR in his 2^nd place finish. Hillary and then Whalen trekked in close behind. Engbers has been lightly raced in the three weeks since, picking up an OK Black title. Whalen and Hillary have each nabbed PR’s of their own.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Allendale	32	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Holland Christian	62	2.0		95+	4
3	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	111	3.0		95+	23
4	Zeeland East	135	4.2			26
5	Hamilton	146	5.3			35
6	Hudsonville Unity Christian	148	5.6			29
7	Holland	182	7.0			50
8	Hopkins	233	8.0			74
9	Comstock Park	278	9.9			82
10	Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills	286	10.8			87
11	Grand Rapids West Catholic	288	10.8			89
12	Grand River Preparatory	288	10.9			88
13	Coopersville	318	12.6			100

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jeb Hillary	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	1.8
2	12	Will Engbers	Holland Christian	2.3
3	12	Kilian Whalen	Allendale	2.4
4	11	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale	4.4
5	12	Ben Gross	Allendale	5.2
6	12	Abatu Dykstra	Hamilton	6.4
7	10	Mitchell Dunlap	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	7.5
8	12	Andrew Commeret	Comstock Park	8.8
9	12	Parker Tiethof	Allendale	9.0
10	10	Mason Hill	Allendale	10.7
11	12	Will Whitmore	Holland Christian	10.7
12	12	Noah Hernandez	Hamilton	12.1
13	11	Landon Gerritsma	Holland Christian	13.0
14	12	Caden Guffey	Zeeland East	13.4
15	11	Jack Estelle	Hopkins	14.3
16	11	Aden Ashworth	Allendale	17.5
17	12	Aidan Brinks	Holland Christian	17.8
18	10	Graeson Decker	Hudsonville Unity Christian	18.3
19	12	Sam Downing	Zeeland East	19.4
20	12	Brayden Rynsburger	Holland Christian	19.4
21	12	Aiden Kasprzak	Grand Rapids Catholic Central	20.3
22	12	Nathan Steen	Holland Christian	22.0
23	9	Aiden Lambers	Holland	23.0
24	11	Riley Hart	Holland Christian	23.4
25	10	Nate Davis	Zeeland East	25.4
26	10	Alex Ten Haken	Hudsonville Unity Christian	25.9
27	12	Caleb DenHartigh	Hudsonville Unity Christian	26.3
28	12	Ben Dykstra	Hamilton	27.5
29	12	Jackson Meyers	Allendale	28.8
30	9	Kash Moored	Hopkins	29.7

Region 12

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

You’d think with three top-6 teams, it’d get a bit more exciting. Grand Rapids Christian, Forest Hills Eastern, and East Grand Rapids, all OK White competitors, all positioned as strong favorites to advance. The only question is the order. The Eagles captured all three of the jamborees, the Pioneers finished ahead of the Hawks in two of them. The same general order was the case at Portage. Perhaps the fifth (or more?) time’s the charm?

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Grand Rapids Christian	50	1.1	94	95+	2
2	Forest Hills Eastern	69	2.4	5	95+	5
3	East Grand Rapids	73	2.6		95+	6
4	Plainwell	128	4.0			16
5	Richland Gull Lake	184	5.2			38
6	Wayland Union	212	6.8			54
7	Portland	214	6.7			51
8	GR West Michigan Aviation	234	8.5			60
9	Grand Rapids South Christian	236	8.7			58
10	Belding	249	10.0			69
11	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	251	10.2			73
12	Hastings	294	12.0			81
13	Lake Odessa Lakewood	324	13.4			86
14	Ionia	332	13.6			91

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	1.1
2	11	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	2.4
3	12	Simon Triezenberg	Grand Rapids Christian	2.5
4	10	Steven Zawacki	Forest Hills Eastern	6.0
5	12	Jacob Draaisma	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	6.0
6	11	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids	7.8
7	11	Donovan Ryan	Plainwell	8.0
8	9	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids	8.8
9	11	Sean Ryan	Grand Rapids Christian	9.1
10	12	Keegan Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian	9.4
11	11	Jeryn Frisbie	Belding	12.4
12	12	Brandon Simmons	Hastings	14.0
13	11	Micah Small	Grand Rapids Christian	14.8
14	12	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	14.9
15	9	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian	16.3
16	11	Hiro Nguyen	Plainwell	17.3
17	11	Asher Jager	GR West Michigan Aviation	18.1
18	11	Shephard Bower	Forest Hills Eastern	18.6
19	9	James Scholten-Holcomb	Grand Rapids Christian	20.1
20	12	Tyler Endres	Forest Hills Eastern	20.1
21	11	Thad VanderLaan	Grand Rapids South Christian	23.6
22	11	Gavin Markucki	Richland Gull Lake	24.1
23	11	Tyler VanKuiken	East Grand Rapids	24.5
24	12	Micah Johnson	Hastings	24.9
25	12	Billy Pipkorn	Plainwell	25.2
26	11	Andrew Feldpausch	Portland	26.0
27	11	Cooper Donovan	Forest Hills Eastern	26.4
28	9	James Scholten-Holcom	Grand Rapids Christian	27.2
29	11	Trent Hansen	Plainwell	28.2
30	12	Nick Whitmer	Forest Hills Eastern	28.2

Region 13

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Three Rivers, attempting to hold off Edwardsburg or beat Otsego for the third time. The Wildcats conquered the Otsego giant during the Wolverine Conference season, winning their first league championship in many years. Though the conference season didn’t see the emergence of Gunnar Djerf, who’s suddenly knocking on the sub-17 door. Edwardsburg placed 2^nd in that conference meet, buoyed by the coming out party of a Riley Szalai, a freshman who’s progressed from the 20+ range into the 17’s. Though megafans of the site will know this – the Wildcats are forever underrated.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Marshall	76	1.1	94	95+	8
2	Otsego	96	2.3	6	92	14
3	Three Rivers	103	2.9		81	18
4	Edwardsburg	116	3.7		26	24
5	Battle Creek Harper Creek	139	5.2			30
6	St. Joseph	152	5.7			42
7	Berrien Springs	197	7.7			55
8	Sturgis	203	8.1			56
9	Vicksburg	208	8.5			57
10	Niles	225	9.7			65
11	Paw Paw	261	11.2			76
12	Coldwater	278	11.7			78
13	Dowagiac Union	354	13.0			101
14	South Haven	428	14.3			112
15	Stevensville Lakeshore	440	14.7			116

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	1.0
2	12	Dominic Lowrie	Battle Creek Harper Creek	2.5
3	10	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	3.5
4	12	Sullivan Zietlow	Three Rivers	3.6
5	12	Reece Davis	Marshall	5.5
6	10	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg	5.9
7	11	George Scupham	Edwardsburg	8.2
8	12	Eli Johansen	St. Joseph	9.0
9	12	Maguire Johnson	Edwardsburg	10.0
10	12	Owen Saylor	Dowagiac Union	11.0
11	12	Nolan Park	Sturgis	11.4
12	12	Aidan Goodwin	Otsego	13.4
13	11	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego	14.2
14	11	Cooper Gardner	Battle Creek Harper Creek	14.3
15	11	Charlie Brauer	Three Rivers	14.6
16	12	Matthew Long	Otsego	15.2
17	10	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw	18.0
18	12	Noah Jarvis	Berrien Springs	19.8
19	12	Peyton Eckerley	Berrien Springs	20.9
20	11	Benjamin Morales	Sturgis	22.3
21	10	Kellen Chalupa	Allegan	22.8
22	10	Seth Randall	St. Joseph	23.4
23	11	Reece Howes	Three Rivers	23.9
24	10	Connor Beebe	Berrien Springs	24.5
25	10	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg	25.0
26	10	Christian Ayres	Battle Creek Harper Creek	26.0
27	10	Gunnar Djerf	Otsego	26.7
28	11	Clark Erwin	Marshall	28.4
29	12	Caleb Wesseldyk	Otsego	28.6
30	9	Reed Gates	Edwardsburg	29.4

Region 14

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Seems pretty chalky from the teams, the individuals not so much. Edison Lopeman is known as a championship racer, hitting All-State in track and ripping some mid-15’s come October. Ezekiel Baltierra is making his presence known in important meets, placing 2^nd at Greater Lansing. Dylan Lydic is coming in as the CAAC Red Champion and has stepped into the 15’s on a few occasions too.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Alma	46	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	DeWitt	96	2.0		95+	13
3	Corunna	119	3.0		95+	22
4	Parma Western	144	4.1			28
5	Williamston	164	5.4			36
6	Haslett	174	6.1			44
7	Mason	180	6.5			45
8	Fowlerville	210	8.1			53
9	St. Johns	239	9.2			61
10	Eaton Rapids	253	10.0			66
11	Owosso	269	10.7			75
12	Charlotte	307	12.0			79
13	Jackson Northwest	367	13.5			96
14	Lansing Waverly	369	13.5			97
15	Lansing Eastern	430	15.1			110
16	Lansing Sexton	452	16.0			115

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western	1.9
2	10	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma	2.1
3	11	Thomas Larson	Alma	2.7
4	12	Dylan Lydic	Haslett	4.4
5	12	Alex Doneth	Mason	4.9
6	12	Nolan Inglis	DeWitt	7.2
7	12	Simon Erfourth	Owosso	7.4
8	9	Duncan Palmer	Williamston	7.8
9	12	Bobby Donley	Corunna	10.9
10	11	Elijah Baltierra	Alma	11.6
11	10	Kevin Terpstra	Alma	12.0
12	10	Ryan Good	Parma Western	12.3
13	12	Jackson Walthorn	DeWitt	12.5
14	12	Conner McCormick	Mason	12.5
15	11	Reagan Ward	St. Johns	13.0
16	12	Bodie Heiss	Alma	18.0
17	10	Ryan Frantz	Haslett	19.2
18	11	Payton Chandler	Corunna	19.2
19	10	Ezra Nellis	Corunna	19.4
20	11	Luca Lebron	Alma	23.5
21	12	Jaxon Strauch	Corunna	24.8
22	10	Thaddeus Overley	Lansing Waverly	25.3
23	9	Teddy Weber	Williamston	25.5
24	12	Ian Goodrich	DeWitt	25.7
25	9	Logan Banner	St. Johns	25.8
26	12	Braylen Eaton	Charlotte	26.5
27	11	Joshua Carpenter	DeWitt	26.5
28	9	Sam Johnson	Alma	26.9
29	11	Raymond Herek	Williamston	27.2
30	12	Jack Huntington	Eaton Rapids	28.0

Region 15

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Four top-15 squads coming for three spots. Shepherd, extremely familiar with their home course, projects to be 3^rd. Freeland, only needing to score four, comes in the third spot. As of this time, it appears that the advantage lies with the 3^rd & 4^th boys, putting enough of a gap on the Falcons to overcome the Hansen advantage.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Frankenmuth	62	1.1	90	95+	7
2	Flint Powers Catholic	73	2.1	10	95+	9
3	Shepherd	81	2.9		91	11
4	Freeland	96	3.9		9	15
5	Flint Kearsley	132	5.1			41
6	Goodrich	149	5.9			49
7	Saginaw Swan Valley	197	7.0			72
8	Bay City John Glenn	243	8.0			83
9	Birch Run	269	9.1			90
10	Essexville-Garber	285	9.9			95
11	Ortonville Brandon	308	11.5			104
12	North Branch	309	11.5			109
13	Imlay City	339	13.0			113

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	TJ Hansen	Freeland	1.0
2	9	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic	3.7
3	11	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich	4.0
4	11	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic	4.3
5	10	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd	4.6
6	12	Jack Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley	5.7
7	12	Nolan Longuski	Shepherd	5.9
8	11	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth	8.4
9	10	Nicklas Parker	Frankenmuth	9.1
10	11	Anthony Plana	Frankenmuth	11.6
11	12	Ethan Sellers	Flint Kearsley	11.8
12	12	Owen Fennelly	Saginaw Swan Valley	12.2
13	10	Seth Betzold	Essexville-Garber	14.1
14	12	Cougar Clark	Frankenmuth	15.7
15	11	Ian McNeel	Shepherd	15.8
16	12	Cole Winter	Goodrich	16.4
17	11	Cole Pergram	Frankenmuth	17.5
18	12	Camden McLeod	Freeland	17.7
19	11	Thomas Beiter	Flint Powers Catholic	18.9
20	12	Sam Nemeth	Freeland	19.3
21	11	Cole Fernandez	Flint Kearsley	19.3
22	11	Henry Schanbeck	Bay City John Glenn	22.1
23	10	Ben Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic	24.4
24	11	Caleb Carignan	Flint Powers Catholic	24.7
25	10	Drew Davis	Shepherd	25.5
26	9	Ryan Rathsburg	Flint Powers Catholic	25.9
27	10	Jackson Horn	Freeland	28.3
28	11	Jacob Hylton	Ortonville Brandon	28.8
29	11	Jagger Clark	Frankenmuth	29.1
30	10	Nathan Anaya	Freeland	29.9

Region 16

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

How will a bunch of flatland Metro Detroit schools handle the Holly hills? According to Jacob Tanner’s maps, charts, and graphs encyclopedic regional preview, only 5 of the region’s 18 squads have competed on this twisted course.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Pinckney	41	1.0	95+	95+	17
2	Detroit Country Day	77	2.3		95+	37
3	Dearborn Divine Child	85	2.7		95+	47
4	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	128	4.9			59
5	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	129	5.0			68
6	Lake Fenton	130	5.1			67
7	Redford Union	186	7.0			84
8	Linden	223	8.4			93
9	Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood	235	8.9			98
10	Oak Park	258	9.6			107
11	Garden City	319	11.0			114
12	Detroit Henry Ford	362	12.0			121
13	Detroit Cody	396	13.0			124

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Colin Murray	Dearborn Divine Child	1.0
2	10	Cole McCraw	Pinckney	2.3
3	12	Zachary Newman	Pinckney	4.0
4	11	Cole Wisniewski	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	4.1
5	12	Jacob Hopkins	Detroit Country Day	5.1
6	10	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day	6.2
7	12	Isaak Brook	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	7.0
8	11	Brodie Licata	Lake Fenton	8.7
9	12	Kyle Osborne	Pinckney	8.8
10	9	Ethan Bray	Detroit Country Day	11.8
11	11	Jake Yono	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	13.1
12	10	Noah Neuman	Pinckney	15.1
13	10	Cooper Steckroth	Lake Fenton	15.5
14	11	Bela Matyus	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	15.8
15	11	Nate Sandula	Pinckney	15.8
16	12	Nicholas Nakic	Dearborn Divine Child	15.9
17	12	Gabe Maciag	Pinckney	16.6
18	9	Jackson Butts	Lake Fenton	16.8
19	11	Wyatt Larson	Pinckney	19.4
20	12	Alex Kitsopanidis	Detroit Country Day	20.0
21	10	Joseph Arriola	Dearborn Divine Child	22.5
22	12	Ryan Wojichowski	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	22.6
23	12	Deric Tavolette	Redford Union	22.7
24	12	Tamer Zahr	Dearborn Divine Child	24.7
25	12	Maximiliano Juarez	Dearborn Divine Child	24.7
26	12	Avery Fsadni	Redford Union	27.8
27	9	Andrew Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	28.1
28	12	Nicholas Mardelli	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	28.5
29	10	Grant Goodwin	Dearborn Divine Child	28.9
30	12	Michael Porter Jr.	Redford Union	30.8

Region 17

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Three proud traditions, one regional trophy. Yale, St. Clair, Macomb Lutheran North. They all come from different walks – the BWAC, MAC Red, Catholic League. Thankfully the Brooks Mid-Season Spectacular has become sort of a regional haven for fast times and competition. Lutheran North placed ahead of St. Clair on that Goodells track. Both St. Clair and Yale traveled to Portage, where Yale finished a solid distance ahead of the Saints. Would appear that the Mustangs and Bulldogs are a bit ahead, though the Saints have nothing to lose.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Yale	42	1.5	61	95+	46
2	Macomb Lutheran North	47	2.2	17	95+	43
3	St. Clair	49	2.3	22	95+	48
4	Madison Heights Lamphere	154	4.6			92
5	Armada	160	4.9			99
6	Richmond	168	5.8			94
7	Croswell-Lexington	183	7.4			102
8	Marysville	184	7.4			103
9	Center Line	291	9.2			120
10	Harper Woods	308	10.0			122
11	Warren Lincoln	337	11.1			123
12	Detroit Southeastern Tech	361	12.2			125
13	Harper Woods Chandler Park	373	13.1			126
14	St. Clair Shores Lake Shore	380	13.5			127

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North	1.1
2	11	Xavier Roman	Macomb Lutheran North	2.3
3	10	Ethan Kreger	St. Clair	3.5
4	12	Wyatt Murtos	Yale	5.2
5	11	Brayden Prieskorn	St. Clair	6.0
6	12	Teddy Rutkofske	Yale	6.1
7	12	Jerry Westrick	St. Clair	9.5
8	11	Nolan Korolden	Yale	9.7
9	11	Samuel Kochensparger	Macomb Lutheran North	9.7
10	10	Connor Pepin	Croswell-Lexington	11.3
11	12	Kale Kovach	Yale	11.4
12	10	Logan Rhodes	Yale	11.4
13	9	Mason Pietrykowski	Richmond	12.9
14	11	Luke McDonell	St. Clair	13.6
15	9	Brady VanConant	Yale	14.2
16	12	Jack McMahon	Macomb Lutheran North	15.2
17	12	Georgio Aramouni	Madison Heights Lamphere	17.0
18	12	Korbyn Thornton	St. Clair	18.6
19	12	Pete Lutz	Madison Heights Lamphere	19.0
20	11	Oliver Alef	Macomb Lutheran North	21.3
21	10	Nino Biondo	Macomb Lutheran North	21.3
22	10	Brendan Koza	Marysville	22.2
23	9	Griffin Kreger	St. Clair	23.6
24	9	Elliot Alef	Macomb Lutheran North	24.5
25	12	Sawyer Rosberg	Richmond	25.2
26	12	Jack Nicol	Yale	25.4
27	11	Robert Carrigan	Armada	27.3
28	11	Gavin Bishop	St. Clair	27.3
29	11	Jack Kerrigan	Croswell-Lexington	28.0
30	10	Jeremy Johnson	Marysville	29.9

Region 18

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

New Boston Huron vs. history. The regional favorite looks to end a 35 year drought in state qualifying, as the last boys squad to advance did so in 1979. There will be some demons to smother from last year, thankfully the Chiefs’ dominant top-two is a comforting safety blanket.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	New Boston Huron	55	1.1	94	95+	19
2	Chelsea	73	2.3	5	95+	34
3	Adrian	80	2.7		95+	31
4	Carleton Airport	114	4.2			52
5	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	138	5.2			63
6	Tecumseh	149	5.7			64
7	Grosse Ile	173	6.9			71
8	Dundee	206	8.1			77
9	Ypsilanti Community	234	8.8			85
10	Riverview	304	10.2			105
11	Trenton	319	10.9			106
12	Milan	355	12.0			111
13	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	385	13.4			117
14	Melvindale	389	13.6			119

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Moises Salazar	Adrian	1.2
2	12	Lucas Kuhn	New Boston Huron	1.9
3	11	Luke Dulecki	New Boston Huron	3.2
4	12	Isaak Rubley	Dundee	4.0
5	11	Henry Fredenberg	Chelsea	5.5
6	11	Matthew Carbajo	Grosse Ile	7.6
7	10	Carter Fenner	Adrian	8.0
8	12	Callum Bell	Carleton Airport	10.1
9	12	Kyle Biller	New Boston Huron	10.4
10	9	Harrison Stamper	Tecumseh	10.6
11	10	Jonathan Rapoza	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	13.8
12	10	Owen Thorburn	Chelsea	13.8
13	10	Cameron Crane	New Boston Huron	13.9
14	11	Linus Helzerman	Chelsea	14.1
15	10	Wyeth Angus	Chelsea	16.8
16	9	Eli Morris	Tecumseh	18.3
17	10	Landin Fisher	Adrian	20.1
18	11	Jacob Alt	Ypsilanti Community	20.6
19	11	William Dobbertin	Carleton Airport	21.2
20	12	Jack Fox	Grosse Ile	21.9
21	9	Easton Coscarelli	Adrian	24.0
22	10	Hunter Rodak	Carleton Airport	25.4
23	10	Tanner Kuhn	New Boston Huron	25.8
24	9	Easton Danic	Carleton Airport	26.3
25	9	Nicholas Ranka	Grosse Ile	26.9
26	10	Dylan Hodges	Chelsea	27.1
27	12	Malaki Muhammud	Ypsilanti Community	27.3
28	11	Matthew Wright	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	27.7
29	10	Eddy Hedrick	Adrian	29.7
30	10	Sam Clifton	Chelsea	31.0

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 19

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The pristine NW corner of the state will be home to a fierce competition for a qualifying spot. Elk Rapids has been a presence on the D3 scene for the past few years, Boyne City hasn’t qualified for State in 20+ seasons. Both the Ramblers and Elks are strong up front; thus, this will likely come down to the 3^rd thru 7^th girls.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Traverse City St. Francis	26	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Clare	79	2.0		95+	15
3	Boyne City	133	3.1		87	34
4	Elk Rapids	148	3.9		13	38
5	Charlevoix	182	6.1			53
6	Cheboygan	183	6.2			51
7	Grayling	183	6.4			55
8	Tawas	194	7.5			59
9	Kalkaska	215	9.0			67
10	Farwell	232	10.1			74
11	Standish-Sterling	243	10.7			78
12	Roscommon	272	12.0			86
13	Harrison	347	13.0			99

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Betsy Skendzel	Traverse City St. Francis	1.0
2	10	Sophia Buzzelli	Clare	2.2
3	12	Mary Masserant	Traverse City St. Francis	3.3
4	10	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis	3.7
5	12	Isabelle Eppert	Farwell	6.4
6	10	Nico Triebold	Grayling	8.3
7	10	Emily Dunphy	Traverse City St. Francis	8.5
8	11	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids	9.7
9	11	Paige Ritchie	Traverse City St. Francis	10.5
10	9	Hailee Bertels	Boyne City	11.6
11	11	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids	12.1
12	12	Alyssa Runyan	Tawas	12.4
13	12	Hunter Shellenbarger	Elk Rapids	13.2
14	9	Emma Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis	14.8
15	11	Delaney Little	Boyne City	16.1
16	10	Lauren Leis	Clare	16.2
17	9	Leah Leis	Clare	16.3
18	10	Stella Houdek	Traverse City St. Francis	17.1
19	11	Tierney Hartman	Grayling	17.9
20	12	Maya Rohrer	Charlevoix	22.5
21	11	Olivia Forsberg	Clare	23.2
22	12	Avery Lopez	Oscoda	23.8
23	10	Elizabeth Letherer	Clare	24.0
24	12	Ashley Nguyen	Tawas	24.1
25	9	Aaliyah Hillier	Kalkaska	24.3
26	10	Cloee Rupp	Cheboygan	28.3
27	11	Rachel Dhaseleer	Charlevoix	28.5
28	9	Kylee Jenkins	Kalkaska	29.1
29	10	Catie Janisse	Roscommon	30.3
30	10	Davylynn Christie	Standish-Sterling	31.6

Region 20

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Can Remus Chippewa Hills spark some magic and knock off a Hart or McBain. Three years ago, the Warriors sprung a massive upset on their home course, setting off a streak of three straight state qualifying teams. In order to make it four, they’ll have to go through the traditionally strong Hart team and a McBain outfit that just dominated the Highland Conference.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Benzie Central	52	1.0	95+	95+	5
2	Hart	91	2.5		90	11
3	McBain	96	2.8		83	12
4	Remus Chippewa Hills	110	3.6		27	16
5	Lake City	162	5.4			28
6	Manistee	169	5.7			26
7	Reed City	202	7.2			39
8	Leroy Pine River	221	8.1			58
9	Shelby	235	8.9			54
10	Lakeview	256	10.0			65
11	Mason County Central	272	11.0			71
12	Manton	285	11.7			75
13	Kingsley	333	13.0			88
14	Morley-Stanwood	419	14.0			98

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview	1.1
2	9	Caelyn Torry	McBain	2.8
3	9	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central	3.1
4	12	Nora Grossnickle	Benzie Central	3.3
5	9	Madisyn Wanstead	Leroy Pine River	5.5
6	12	Megan Gottschall	Lake City	6.9
7	9	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	8.6
8	10	Natalie Rosema	Hart	8.7
9	9	Avalynne Allee	Leroy Pine River	9.4
10	12	Nevia Chimonas	Benzie Central	10.6
11	11	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills	10.9
12	10	Lydia Soelberg	Shelby	11.4
13	9	Alaina Schaner	Hart	14.5
14	9	Lilly Whaley	Benzie Central	15.1
15	12	Lexie Beth Nienhuis	Hart	16.1
16	10	Kayden Hinton	McBain	16.4
17	12	Audrey Huizinga	Manistee	19.7
18	9	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central	19.9
19	10	Maylan Sanders	Mason County Central	20.7
20	10	Betsy Gooden	Manton	21.1
21	9	Faith Helsel	Lake City	21.5
22	11	Elizabeth Ontis	Remus Chippewa Hills	21.9
23	12	Chelsi Eisenga	McBain	22.4
24	12	Clara Smoes	Reed City	23.2
25	9	Madilynn Fancett	McBain	27.1
26	9	Joselyn Flores	Hart	28.3
27	11	Georgia Haag	Manistee	28.3
28	9	Bryn Riley	Hart	28.9
29	10	Marlowe Walcott	Reed City	29.0
30	12	Harriet Kidder	Hart	29.5

Region 21

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Who can make it back between Grandville Calvin Christian and Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian. Calvin Christian had been a mainstay for forever in D3, hitting a bit of a lull these past few years. NorthPointe hasn’t made it to the Finals since 2012. A week ago in the OK Silver Final, the Squires bested the Mustangs by 9 points, largely on the strength of their top-2 girls who hit sub-20’s.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	70	1.3	74	95+	9
2	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	76	1.7	26	95+	10
3	Grandville Calvin Christian	116	3.4		59	19
4	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	122	3.6		41	23
5	Saranac	186	6.0			50
6	Olivet	187	5.6			45
7	Newaygo	199	6.9			52
8	The Potter’s House	215	8.4			60
9	Kent City	220	8.9			62
10	Holland Black River	227	9.2			66
11	Montague	270	11.0			77
12	Delton-Kellogg	302	12.4			83
13	North Muskegon	306	12.6			84
14	Ravenna	362	14.1			95
15	Grant	383	14.8			97

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lila Volkers	Kent City	1.4
2	12	Grace Vanderkooi	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	1.9
3	9	Elliana Max	Kent City	3.0
4	10	Shelby Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	3.8
5	12	Morgan Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	6.9
6	10	Laura Castrejon	Newaygo	6.9
7	10	Leah Sneller	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	7.6
8	12	Lola Bryce	Grandville Calvin Christian	7.7
9	9	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet	8.5
10	12	Hannah Geaney	The Potter’s House	9.5
11	11	Emily Peters	Olivet	11.2
12	10	Lydia Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	13.8
13	10	Marnath Tuol	Grandville Calvin Christian	14.9
14	9	Ellason Foster	Newaygo	15.6
15	10	Anna DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	16.3
16	10	Kaylie Riksen	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	16.6
17	9	Danika Lopez	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	17.4
18	12	Ava Wilson	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	18.5
19	9	Esther Cahill	Saranac	20.2
20	9	Abbie Koole	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	21.7
21	12	Kylie Main	Delton-Kellogg	22.9
22	11	Amber Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	23.2
23	10	Jenna Terpstra	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	23.7
24	12	Alyssa Possehn	Saranac	24.6
25	10	Ava Langerak	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	26.0
26	11	Sylvia Skujins	North Muskegon	26.6
27	11	Dylan Bosma	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	27.1
28	9	Joellah Bouwman	Grandville Calvin Christian	28.3
29	12	Grace Torsch	Montague	28.7
30	10	Faith Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian	28.8

Region 22

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Which of the two will make it between Buchanan, Schoolcraft, and Union City? Both Schoolcraft and Buchanan have more depth, though Parker Williams is coming strong for Union City.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Saugatuck	64	1.1	90	95+	14
2	Buchanan	79	2.5	7	89	22
3	Schoolcraft	86	3.1		68	29
4	Union City	92	3.5		41	25
5	Kalamazoo Christian	121	4.9			40
6	Niles Brandywine	162	6.2			57
7	Fennville	178	6.9			61
8	Watervliet	216	8.3			76
9	Centreville	243	9.5			82
10	Bangor	245	9.5			79
11	Hartford	276	10.7			91
12	Constantine	348	12.0			96
13	Bloomingdale	405	13.4			100
14	Comstock	405	13.6			101

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville	1.0
2	12	Alaina Klooster	Kalamazoo Christian	3.6
3	12	Skyler Fraley	Union City	3.6
4	10	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck	4.2
5	12	Madeline Young	Buchanan	4.6
6	11	Alina Martinson	Saugatuck	5.9
7	10	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck	6.1
8	10	Allison Gautsche	Union City	7.4
9	12	Ariana Pillot	Schoolcraft	9.2
10	9	Alison Murray	Niles Brandywine	11.8
11	11	Alaina Nagel	Buchanan	13.8
12	9	Olivia Bays	Schoolcraft	14.9
13	12	Alissa Skirka	Union City	15.1
14	9	Avery Mollberg	Buchanan	16.6
15	12	Miley Young	Niles Brandywine	18.3
16	12	Ava Vlietstra	Kalamazoo Christian	18.7
17	12	Christina Mendoza	Fennville	18.7
18	12	Addison Blodgett	Schoolcraft	18.8
19	11	Makynna Williams	Buchanan	20.2
20	9	Alyda Leep	Schoolcraft	21.9
21	12	Kara Kerwin	Kalamazoo Christian	22.7
22	12	Alayah Nieuwsma	Saugatuck	23.1
23	12	Kimberly Romero	Watervliet	23.2
24	10	Emma Schoonmaker	Saugatuck	25.1
25	9	Avery McCrum	Schoolcraft	26.2
26	12	Isabelle Overmyer	Buchanan	26.8
27	12	Samantha Pavlak	Schoolcraft	27.2
28	12	Aubree Murray	Niles Brandywine	27.4
29	10	Parker Williams	Union City	29.1
30	11	Adyson Baker	Buchanan	30.5

Region 23

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Three teams separated by eight points, all with somewhat equal chances of making it to another week: Jonesville, Hanover-Horton, and Bronson. The former two have faced off in the Cascades Conference, Hanover-Horton holding serve in the conference final (if their points were counted). The wild card is Bronson, who has two low sticks, an added advantage here.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	40	1.0	95+	95+	6
2	Onsted	94	2.1		95+	21
3	Bronson	125	3.8		36	30
4	Jonesville	128	4.0		43	36
5	Hanover-Horton	133	4.4		21	35
6	Hudson	162	6.6			46
7	Hillsdale	165	6.9			47
8	Quincy	170	7.4			49
9	Napoleon	198	9.1			64
10	Sand Creek	213	9.8			70
11	Homer	281	11.0			90

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Emmry Ross	Onsted	1.1
2	10	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi	1.9
3	12	Ava Hathaway	Bronson	3.5
4	12	Chloe Stalhood	Hillsdale	3.9
5	11	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson	5.3
6	9	Maisey Toteff	Hanover-Horton	6.4
7	11	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi	6.8
8	12	Layla Lopez	Jackson Lumen Christi	8.2
9	12	Thia Tello	Jackson Lumen Christi	9.4
10	10	Brynlee Swihart	Hanover-Horton	12.0
11	10	Kendyl Musielewicz	Quincy	13.3
12	9	Brynleigh Griffiths	Jonesville	13.4
13	10	Helen Lefere	Jackson Lumen Christi	15.5
14	12	Lainey Yearling	Quincy	16.2
15	10	Kiera Knight	Jonesville	16.9
16	11	Annabelle Czeiszperger	Hudson	18.3
17	9	Madalynn Trame	Sand Creek	18.4
18	12	Allie England	Onsted	19.3
19	12	Mia Sanchez	Jackson Lumen Christi	19.8
20	10	Alonna Goodsell	Bronson	20.7
21	11	Raegan Brosamer	Onsted	21.6
22	9	Madisyn Lindemann	Napoleon	22.5
23	12	Jayla Bright	Hudson	23.8
24	12	Jordyn Taylor	Onsted	24.3
25	10	Joleane Gulledge	Jonesville	24.6
26	12	Charlotte Crabbs	Quincy	25.4
27	11	Abby Frederick	Jackson Lumen Christi	25.5
28	11	Makenzy Lindemann	Napoleon	26.2
29	10	Kendahl Drake	Jonesville	27.7
30	10	Izabel Raglow	Onsted	29.8

Region 24

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Another Pewamo-Westphalia and Stanton Central Montcalm matchup. Pretty much the same formula as the boys, though the Hornets may be even more imposing up front. The Pirates can match that with Whitney Werner and Alyssa Kramer. Does the Blue n’ Yellow depth overwhelm or does a girl such as Braelyn Bunting continue her rise? Maybe both as these two squads focus in on podium finishes in the coming weeks.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	36	1.2	83	95+	3
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	40	1.8	17	95+	4
3	Laingsburg	88	3.0		95+	20
4	Bath	111	4.1			33
5	Ovid-Elsie	137	5.2			48
6	Chesaning	146	5.7			56
7	New Lothrop	172	7.0			69
8	Montrose	234	8.0			94

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Kyah Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	1.0
2	12	Whitney Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	2.4
3	10	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia	3.0
4	12	Ashley Choponis	Stanton Central Montcalm	3.7
5	11	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	5.0
6	11	Anna Poppema	Bath	6.6
7	9	Madison Wils	Bath	7.4
8	9	Adelyn Thelen	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.0
9	12	Emily Rathka	Laingsburg	8.8
10	11	Abbie Schneider	Pewamo-Westphalia	10.8
11	11	Clarissa Baese	Ovid-Elsie	11.8
12	10	Andrea Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	12.9
13	10	Charlotte Simon	Pewamo-Westphalia	13.0
14	11	Lilly Rooks	Pewamo-Westphalia	13.9
15	10	Delaney Smith	Pewamo-Westphalia	15.3
16	12	Evelyn Logghe	Laingsburg	17.8
17	9	KiKi Rusz	Laingsburg	17.9
18	11	Braelyn Bunting	Stanton Central Montcalm	18.2
19	10	Lilli Morrill	Laingsburg	23.2
20	9	Leah Theile	Chesaning	23.3
21	11	Logan Trygstad	Stanton Central Montcalm	23.8
22	9	Kendal Tokar	Ovid-Elsie	24.1
23	12	Lexy Andres	New Lothrop	24.8
24	9	Alonna Schack	Chesaning	25.0
25	10	Samantha Gutzman	Laingsburg	26.1
26	11	Hazel Burley	Laingsburg	27.1
27	12	Makayla Reiber	Chesaning	27.6
28	12	Ally Andres	New Lothrop	28.1
29	12	Addison Rusz	Laingsburg	28.2
30	12	Amelie Bertels	Bath	28.9

Region 25

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Saginaw Valley Lutheran and Sanford-Meridian. Both were able to use the Bluejay Invite as a course preview. Unfortunately for us previewers and prognosticators, the two squads were in separate races. Comparing times, the Mustangs were a bit stronger at the 4^th spot. Which might look to be an advantage, until you consider how well the Chargers ran at the Saginaw County Championship, putting three girls in the top-20 and placing 3^rd.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Ithaca	41	1.0	95+	95+	7
2	Midland Bullock Creek	84	2.0		95+	17
3	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	110	3.4		70	27
4	Sanford-Meridian	115	3.8		28	31
5	St. Louis	131	5.2			37
6	Caro	142	6.1			44
7	Pigeon-Laker	145	6.5			41
8	Sandusky	181	8.0			68
9	Millington	240	9.0			89
10	Cass City	254	10.0			93
11	Pinconning	324	11.0			102
12	Carrollton	347	12.0			105

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek	1.3
2	10	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca	3.0
3	9	Khloe Lehnst	Ithaca	3.3
4	11	Abigail Reis	Millington	4.2
5	12	Kaya Vrable	Caro	5.3
6	9	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	6.6
7	11	Myleigh Hephner	Ithaca	7.1
8	10	Mikenna Nagel	Sanford-Meridian	9.3
9	10	Pyper Braun	Pigeon-Laker	9.7
10	9	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro	10.4
11	12	Abby Dice	St. Louis	10.4
12	9	Isabelle Strand	Ithaca	12.6
13	12	Maddie Huysentruyt	Sandusky	14.5
14	10	Emily Beethe	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	14.5
15	12	Autumn Fransen	Midland Bullock Creek	15.2
16	9	Sarah Nothstine	Midland Bullock Creek	19.1
17	11	Alexis Fabbro	Vassar	20.0
18	11	Izabelle LaLone	Ithaca	20.1
19	9	Amelia Dawe	Ithaca	20.5
20	10	Ellie Beach	Sanford-Meridian	20.8
21	9	Olivia Brown	Bad Axe	21.3
22	11	Halle Hoyt	St. Louis	21.5
23	11	Emma Dawe	Ithaca	23.5
24	10	Haley Fitzgibbon	Sanford-Meridian	23.7
25	9	Samantha Skym	Midland Bullock Creek	24.0
26	11	Makenna Gwisdalla	Bad Axe	24.1
27	9	Bethany Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	24.4
28	11	Aubrey Zarnke	Pigeon-Laker	26.7
29	10	Bayleigh Finney	Sanford-Meridian	29.4
30	11	Braylee Rice	Reese	31.3

Region 26

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Lansing Catholic vs. the long bus ride. The Cougars will have plenty of time to stew over traveling across half the state and will likely take out their frustration on the field. They’ve been packed up at the front of races all year, this region seeming to be no different.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Lansing Catholic	24	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Leslie	52	2.0		95+	8
3	Ann Arbor Greenhills	91	3.0		95+	24
4	Almont	127	4.0			42
5	Marine City	166	5.5			72
6	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	169	5.7			73
7	Algonac	199	7.7			80
8	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	199	7.7			81
9	Wixom St. Catherine	210	8.6			87
10	Stockbridge	228	9.8			92
11	Detroit Osborn	321	11.0			103

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Hailey Creisher	Leslie	1.0
2	9	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic	2.1
3	10	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic	4.2
4	9	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic	4.3
5	11	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic	5.2
6	9	Addison Gregg	Ann Arbor Greenhills	6.6
7	10	Reagan Lees	Wixom St. Catherine	8.7
8	12	Erin Lubahn	Leslie	9.1
9	10	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic	9.4
10	9	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	10.1
11	9	Margaret Guerra-Harrison	Leslie	11.3
12	10	Libby Schuster	Ann Arbor Greenhills	12.2
13	11	Ella Heffner	Charyl Stockwell Academy	13.3
14	9	Madisyn Hunter	Leslie	13.5
15	12	Kaitlin Ludwig	Lansing Catholic	15.1
16	11	Laila Evola	Almont	16.4
17	11	Janaan Rehman	Ann Arbor Greenhills	18.3
18	12	Jaidyn Smith	Leslie	18.9
19	9	Taylor Stanczak	Almont	19.0
20	11	Greta Schwarberg	Almont	21.3
21	10	Nina Malani	Ann Arbor Greenhills	23.0
22	10	Aubrey Pilon	Marine City	23.5
23	12	Maddie Szlachta	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	23.7
24	12	Ava Vaccaro	Stockbridge	24.0
25	11	Jasmine Walker	Algonac	24.4
26	12	Kate Bennett	Algonac	25.9
27	12	Elizabeth Ballor	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	28.1
28	10	Emma Reimer	New Haven	28.9
29	9	Violet Massaglia	Marine City	29.3
30	11	JayLee Chapman	Stockbridge	30.5

Region 27

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Eliza Bush vs. the record books. The Oakland bound senior has won twice here and is a strong favorite to make it three in a row. She’s lost only twice this year, hitting her first sub-18 at Stockbridge. To this point, it’s been her best season yet in a career that’s contained 3 All-State finishes.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Blissfield	35	1.0	95+	95+	13
2	Grass Lake	47	2.0		95+	18
3	Monroe St. Mary CC	70	3.0		95+	32
4	Erie Mason	91	4.0			43
5	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	118	5.0			63
6	Ida	147	6.0			85
7	Detroit Cristo Rey	220	7.0			104

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Eliza Bush	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	1.0
2	11	Hope Miller	Blissfield	2.2
3	11	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC	2.8
4	11	Hailey Sills	Blissfield	5.5
5	12	Megan Woelkers	Flat Rock	5.7
6	9	Adalyn Jarchow	Grass Lake	5.8
7	9	Claire Miller	Monroe Jefferson	6.2
8	10	Anna Hallett	Blissfield	9.0
9	12	Mia Schroeder	Monroe Jefferson	9.1
10	10	Kaleea Braun	Blissfield	11.5
11	11	Julia Hughes	Ida	13.1
12	12	Autumn Pernell	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	13.3
13	9	Ella Claus	Clinton	14.7
14	12	Grace Bullock	Grass Lake	15.0
15	12	Kim Miller	Monroe Jefferson	15.6
16	12	Elizabeth Lambert	Erie Mason	15.8
17	10	Makenzie Hilberer	Grass Lake	17.4
18	12	Alaina McClain	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	17.6
19	10	Adeline Stormont	Grass Lake	17.6
20	10	Elise Bullock	Grass Lake	18.1
21	10	Juleigh Husby	Monroe St. Mary CC	19.9
22	12	Claire Lisker	Monroe St. Mary CC	19.9
23	12	Bailey Meiring	Erie Mason	24.4
24	9	Kate Otting	Erie Mason	24.7
25	11	Leona Knudsen	Monroe St. Mary CC	24.7
26	11	Natalie Benitez	Blissfield	26.3
27	10	Braelynn Chiotti	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	27.2
28	11	Taylor Hoppe	Grass Lake	30.7
29	9	Jaelynn Horton	Erie Mason	31.1
30	11	Riley England	Erie Mason	31.2