Category: Uncategorized

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 19

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Traverse City St. Francis vs. the world. Last fall, the Glads placed all seven varsity runners in the top-11, then went onto claim a win at the State Finals. Next week, the competition will be a bit stronger, but this week can be a nice springboard into a repeat. By the way, the projections again have all seven in the top-11.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Traverse City St. Francis	21	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Charlevoix	57	2.0		95+	10
3	Clare	102	3.0		95+	29
4	Roscommon	160	4.1			46
5	Boyne City	182	5.4			57
6	Elk Rapids	189	6.1			58
7	Kalkaska	207	7.2			71
8	Grayling	207	7.4			69
9	Standish-Sterling	234	9.2			77
10	Cheboygan	242	9.7			80
11	Beaverton	290	11.3			89
12	Harrison	303	11.8			100
13	Tawas	344	13.4			108
14	Farwell	348	13.6			107

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Josh Slocum	Traverse City St. Francis	1.3
2	10	William Ready	Traverse City St. Francis	2.2
3	10	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix	2.6
4	12	Owen Read	Traverse City St. Francis	4.9
5	12	Robby Myler	Traverse City St. Francis	5.6
6	10	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix	5.9
7	11	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix	6.9
8	12	Riley Pattinson	Traverse City St. Francis	8.1
9	12	Joseph Carlson	Traverse City St. Francis	8.4
10	11	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids	10.1
11	12	Lewis Walter	Traverse City St. Francis	10.9
12	10	Connor Schmidt	Clare	12.6
13	12	David Dhaseleer	Charlevoix	13.2
14	12	Anthony Cole	Roscommon	14.2
15	10	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City	14.8
16	12	Tristan Demlow	Grayling	19.0
17	9	Owen McGlone	Kalkaska	19.1
18	10	Jake Klemmer	Roscommon	19.9
19	10	Finn Parish	Boyne City	20.9
20	10	Sutton Klaus	Clare	21.1
21	11	Coltrane Paryani	Kalkaska	21.3
22	12	Caidan Gaskill	Clare	23.7
23	9	William (Liam) Mahaffy	Grayling	25.0
24	11	Neiko Ketchum	Clare	25.1
25	11	Clayton Peacock	Clare	25.3
26	10	Christian Villa-Bilton	Clare	26.1
27	11	Carson Kiefer	Cheboygan	27.7
28	11	Gage Spencer	Beaverton	28.5
29	11	Jacob Veurink	Charlevoix	29.5
30	10	Eli Williamson	Standish-Sterling	30.8

Region 20

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Three teams vying for the win. A projected 16 point separate Reed City, Hart, and Benzie Central. The Pirates will come with depth, hoping to displace both the Huskies and ‘Yotes. Of course, Benzie will be at home, using course knowledge to their advantage. And with the reliable Gus Rohde up front, Reed City only has to score four. At Bluejay, the trio came together for one matchup, Hart scoring considerably less than the other two. But you must take into account that depth is a greater advantage in larger fields.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Hart	60	1.3	70	95+	16
2	Reed City	66	2.0	22	95+	15
3	Benzie Central	76	2.7	8	95+	21
4	Lake City	106	4.0			27
5	Leroy Pine River	179	5.5			55
6	Manton	182	5.6			52
7	Manistee	215	7.0			67
8	Kingsley	244	8.5			75
9	Remus Chippewa Hills	262	9.6			81
10	Hesperia	269	10.0			82
11	Shelby	270	10.1			83
12	McBain	303	12.2			91
13	Morley-Stanwood	314	12.8			95
14	Mason County Central	332	13.7			103

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	August Rohde	Reed City	1.0
2	11	Robert Dykhouse	Manton	2.1
3	11	Jackson Schaub	Benzie Central	4.2
4	10	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview	4.9
5	9	Eli Vanpoortfliet	Benzie Central	5.3
6	11	Caiden Helsel	Lake City	6.0
7	9	Silas Ackley	Hart	6.5
8	11	Paul Saladin	Reed City	8.0
9	12	Jacob Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills	9.0
10	11	Jack Slotman	Hart	13.1
11	11	Connor Helsel	Lake City	13.9
12	9	Tanner Dozier	Reed City	14.1
13	10	Aiden Schaner	Hart	14.4
14	9	Abraham Kiaunis	Reed City	15.3
15	10	Pascal Miller	Hart	15.5
16	9	Grant Ackley	Hart	16.8
17	10	Nathan Lenington	Leroy Pine River	20.1
18	10	Mason Opalewski	Hart	20.6
19	12	Benjamin Deridder	Benzie Central	20.6
20	11	Wyatt Vanpoortfliet	Benzie Central	21.4
21	11	Owen Butkovich	Lake City	22.0
22	10	Carson Ackley	Hart	22.8
23	11	Ethan Baker	Leroy Pine River	23.9
24	9	Tristan Hernandez	Kingsley	25.3
25	11	Kaden Worch	Manistee	25.8
26	10	Braydn Winkel	McBain	26.0
27	11	Iziquiel Picon	Shelby	27.4
28	12	Christian Schramski	Manistee	28.0
29	11	Jack Helsel	Manton	29.7
30	11	Kyle Vincent	Benzie Central	30.3

Region 21

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

A rare scenario here where three teams will vie for one spot. Holland Black River, The Potter’s House, and Montague come in closely for the third qualifying place. Black River has been in the driver’s seat all year, Potter’s House is closing fast, especially helped by the progressions of Edward Mugisha and Reed Osterink.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	49	1.0	95+	95+	7
2	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	73	2.0		95+	12
3	Holland Black River	101	3.4		62	20
4	The Potter’s House	110	4.3		18	22
5	Montague	110	4.2		20	23
6	Olivet	199	6.2			41
7	Saranac	219	7.0			51
8	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	248	8.5			59
9	Parchment	260	9.3			63
10	Kent City	268	9.9			64
11	Newaygo	279	10.8			73
12	Grandville Calvin Christian	291	11.3			72
13	Delton-Kellogg	351	13.6			90
14	North Muskegon	351	13.6			96
15	Ravenna	376	14.9			101

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Levi Kamps	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	1.3
2	12	Matthias Morse	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	1.7
3	11	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House	3.5
4	10	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River	3.9
5	10	Micah Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	6.2
6	10	Barrett Nance	North Muskegon	6.6
7	10	David Castrejon	Newaygo	7.5
8	12	Luke Dykstra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	9.9
9	9	Nolan Kessler	Montague	10.3
10	12	Tyler N. Kooienga	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	10.8
11	12	Isaac Edgington	Holland Black River	11.4
12	11	Noah Raeth	Montague	11.4
13	9	Casper Banner	Holland Black River	14.3
14	10	Caleb Swiney	The Potter’s House	14.5
15	10	Owen Sytsema	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	15.3
16	12	Elliot Cole	Parchment	16.8
17	12	Alexander Lawrence	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	17.4
18	12	Alix Draves	Montague	17.8
19	11	Reuben Anderson	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	19.0
20	10	Josiah Scholma	Muskegon Western Michigan Christian	20.5
21	10	Levi Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	22.2
22	11	Kaden Mingerink	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	25.3
23	11	Isaac Struck-Vanderhaak	The Potter’s House	26.1
24	11	Isaac Johnson	Holland Black River	26.5
25	10	Easton McCloy	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	27.2
26	11	Brandon McCullough	Kent City	28.0
27	11	Max McDowell	Olivet	28.4
28	12	Reed Osterink	The Potter’s House	29.1
29	11	Isaac Westra	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	29.4
30	12	Bucky Aney	Montague	29.8

Region 22

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Will Daniel Mandujano complete the process? In three years, he’s gone from 13^th to 5^th to now holding the fastest time of any Region 22 boy. He’s been in the low-16’s for the past month, racing to a 2^nd place finish in the SAC and I believe, a school record. The contender that may give him trouble is Ben Gautsche, who hit a 16:27 at Stockbridge and a 16:21 this past week.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Saugatuck	38	1.0	95+	95+	4
2	Buchanan	62	2.0		95+	11
3	Union City	83	3.0		95+	19
4	Schoolcraft	147	4.1			35
5	Watervliet	180	5.9			48
6	Centreville	181	6.3			54
7	Hartford	190	6.8			53
8	Bangor	206	8.4			61
9	Constantine	209	8.5			60
10	Galesburg-Augusta	216	9.0			62
11	Bloomingdale	259	11.0			78
12	Coloma	327	12.0			98
13	Fennville	388	13.0			112
14	Comstock	420	14.0			115

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Daniel Mandujano	Watervliet	1.2
2	11	Ben Gautsche	Union City	2.7
3	9	Jackson Bowman	Saugatuck	4.8
4	11	Liam McBeth	Buchanan	5.4
5	10	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck	6.5
6	10	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck	6.5
7	12	Dante Pillot	Schoolcraft	7.0
8	10	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck	8.8
9	11	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan	9.1
10	12	Jason Shoop	Union City	10.7
11	10	John Keser	Buchanan	12.1
12	11	Sammy Gamboa	Saugatuck	12.1
13	12	Landen Bouchard	Galesburg-Augusta	13.5
14	11	Alessandro Avila	Constantine	14.0
15	11	Jacob Kuntz	Buchanan	15.5
16	0	Will Hulin	Centreville	15.7
17	10	Aiden Mcdonald	Hartford	16.3
18	12	Carlos Ruiz	Hartford	19.7
19	12	Coy Weinberg	Buchanan	20.3
20	12	Carter Stevens	Galesburg-Augusta	20.7
21	12	Cohen Burdick	Union City	21.6
22	9	Ira Brown	Saugatuck	22.1
23	12	Robbie King	Constantine	22.9
24	12	Malachi Payne	Union City	24.5
25	9	Ashton Skinner	Saugatuck	26.0
26	12	Tyler Caruso	Bangor	26.4
27	12	Zack Mitchell	Kalamazoo Christian	27.8
28	10	Cullen Decker	Union City	28.1
29	10	Josaias Robles	Hartford	30.2
30	10	Noah June	Union City	31.2

Region 23

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The top end talent in Region 23 is absurd. Mitchell Hiatt would be the heavy favorite in pretty much every region, but here, the odds are a bit tighter. The top-4 seeds in terms of time have gone under 16:00, by my estimation, there are 5 legitimate contenders for top-10 spots at MIS. Hiatt is increasingly looking like a candidate to take it all, but if he has a subpar race here, any of Caleb Blonde, Ziggy Dinverno, Leo Swager, or Landen Boulis could swoop in for the win.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	38	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Hanover-Horton	63	2.0		95+	6
3	Jonesville	84	3.0		95+	14
4	Onsted	130	4.1			30
5	Brooklyn Columbia Central	145	4.9			31
6	Sand Creek	191	6.1			50
7	Homer	219	7.7			68
8	Bronson	220	7.6			70
9	Napoleon	246	9.7			79
10	Quincy	247	9.7			76
11	Hillsdale	254	10.2			84
12	Hudson	304	12.0			99
13	Springport	352	13.0			111
14	Michigan Center	400	14.0			116

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Mitchell Hiatt	Onsted	1.6
2	12	Isaiah Dinverno	Jackson Lumen Christi	2.0
3	12	Landen Boulis	Hanover-Horton	4.0
4	12	Leo Swager	Jackson Lumen Christi	4.0
5	10	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville	4.1
6	11	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi	6.9
7	10	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton	7.1
8	11	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville	7.8
9	10	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale	8.5
10	10	Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi	11.0
11	11	John Edler	Homer	11.2
12	10	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi	14.4
13	10	Silas Daniels	Sand Creek	15.6
14	12	James Bayes	Onsted	15.9
15	10	Chad Tyson	Hanover-Horton	16.0
16	10	Collin Fucile	Jonesville	16.9
17	11	Zach Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	17.9
18	12	Isaac St. John	Hudson	20.5
19	10	Ethan Huff	Homer	21.4
20	9	Wyatt Hassenzahl	Hanover-Horton	21.7
21	9	Chris Durfey	Onsted	21.7
22	11	Wyatt Vowell	Brooklyn Columbia Central	21.8
23	12	Jack Gorton	Brooklyn Columbia Central	22.0
24	9	Ashton Potwin	Jonesville	22.1
25	9	Clint Couchman	Brooklyn Columbia Central	24.7
26	9	Tyler Harris	Hanover-Horton	26.4
27	9	Carson Beach	Hanover-Horton	27.5
28	11	Karl Swager	Jackson Lumen Christi	28.9
29	11	Peter Soltis	Jackson Lumen Christi	28.9
30	11	Nate Ostrosky	Brooklyn Columbia Central	30.8

Region 24

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Depth vs. top end speed. Stanton Central Montcalm is extremely strong through three, even extending to four. Pewamo-Westphalia claims the ability to find seven runners under 18:00. At a larger meet, it’s likely the Pirates. A condensed field at the regional level, Central Montcalm’s odds improve.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Pewamo-Westphalia	48	1.2	81	95+	5
2	Stanton Central Montcalm	53	1.8	19	95+	9
3	Bath	83	3.0		95+	17
4	Ovid-Elsie	133	4.6			36
5	Laingsburg	134	4.7			39
6	Otisville LakeVille	144	5.7			44
7	Montrose	181	7.6			65
8	Chesaning	183	7.6			66
9	New Lothrop	201	8.9			74
10	Perry	252	10.0			93
11	Mt Morris	346	11.0			119

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm	1.0
2	11	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg	2.9
3	11	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille	3.0
4	9	Owen Poppema	Bath	3.5
5	11	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm	6.3
6	10	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia	6.7
7	11	Kyler Fertig	Stanton Central Montcalm	7.5
8	12	Allan George	Pewamo-Westphalia	8.0
9	10	Wyatt Werner	Pewamo-Westphalia	9.1
10	10	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia	10.4
11	12	Clay Powell	Ovid-Elsie	11.4
12	9	Wyatt Roberts	Otisville LakeVille	12.6
13	9	Tate Smith	Bath	13.0
14	9	Johnny Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm	13.6
15	10	River Fox	Bath	14.8
16	10	Nolan Mitchell	Pewamo-Westphalia	15.2
17	12	Jason Weber	Pewamo-Westphalia	19.5
18	12	Connor Kennedy	Otisville LakeVille	19.5
19	12	Lieu Vincke	New Lothrop	21.7
20	12	Luke Skidmore	Bath	21.7
21	12	Sam Muirhead	Pewamo-Westphalia	22.1
22	11	Joshua Miller	Ovid-Elsie	23.5
23	9	Eli Hobson	Montrose	23.9
24	12	Felix Ramirez	Laingsburg	24.3
25	12	James Kelly	Ovid-Elsie	24.6
26	11	Evan Rolston	Stanton Central Montcalm	24.7
27	10	Jaxon Hemgesberg	Chesaning	25.2
28	11	Cole Maier	Chesaning	25.7
29	9	Austin Hodges	Laingsburg	29.1
30	9	Mario Baker	Bath	31.9

Region 25

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

St. Louis vs. the projections. Every year during championship time, those Sharks outperform the numbers. They’ve moved into the three spot here, so I’m safe with regard to qualifying. Absolutely no one will be surprised if they score considerably less than projected.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Ithaca	38	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	Sanford-Meridian	88	2.3		95+	26
3	St. Louis	92	2.7		95+	28
4	Pigeon-Laker	112	4.5			34
5	Midland Bullock Creek	113	4.8			37
6	Reese	123	5.7			42
7	Cass City	221	7.5			94
8	Carrollton	236	8.1			102
9	Millington	237	8.4			106
10	Hemlock	266	10.0			109
11	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	287	11.0			110
12	Vassar	308	12.0			114

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Landen Styka	Ithaca	1.1
2	12	Landon Pestrue	St. Louis	2.5
3	12	Miingen Bertrand	Ithaca	3.0
4	12	Tyler Heal	Sanford-Meridian	4.1
5	10	Luke Herron	Caro	6.0
6	11	Jayden Fox	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	6.2
7	10	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek	7.3
8	12	Brayden Sweeney	Midland Bullock Creek	7.7
9	11	Jacob Mankey	Ithaca	9.6
10	12	Cade Truemner	Pigeon-Laker	11.1
11	10	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker	11.9
12	10	Evan MacLaren	Ithaca	13.3
13	11	Alex Rodriguez	St. Louis	13.8
14	12	Colin Kuhn	St. Louis	13.9
15	11	Thad Whitmore	Ithaca	14.8
16	9	Remyngton Clish	Sanford-Meridian	16.3
17	10	Xander Huckins	Reese	18.3
18	12	Brent DeSaegher	Ithaca	18.4
19	11	Wesley Haines	Reese	18.7
20	11	Logan Brawt	Sanford-Meridian	19.9
21	9	Christopher Shemes	Ithaca	21.4
22	9	Kale Miklovic	Pigeon-Laker	22.4
23	11	Hayden Shattuck	St. Louis	23.2
24	11	James Schroder	Sanford-Meridian	23.7
25	12	Jacob Moore	Caro	24.0
26	10	Sebastian Seifferlein	Sandusky	25.7
27	10	Mayson McIntosh	Caro	26.0
28	12	Nathaniel Seney	Reese	29.2
29	10	Henry Haag	Pigeon-Laker	29.5
30	10	Connor Czolgosz	Midland Bullock Creek	29.7

Region 26

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Noel Lorenzen in his quest to be the best D3 freshman. He’s passed the test thus far, ripping it on fast courses such as Whitmore Lake, double hills at Possum Hollow, and in the heat at Holly. This weekend at Columbus County Park, the latter two characteristics will be present.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Lansing Catholic	33	1.0	95+	95+	8
2	Leslie	74	2.1		95+	18
3	Ann Arbor Greenhills	90	3.0		89	24
4	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	109	3.9		11	33
5	Algonac	153	5.2			49
6	Almont	165	5.8			56
7	Clawson	254	8.3			86
8	Madison Heights Bishop Foley	254	8.5			88
9	Stockbridge	258	8.9			87
10	University Liggett	267	9.7			92
11	Charyl Stockwell Academy	268	9.7			97
12	Marine City	301	11.9			104
13	New Haven	347	13.0			113
14	Communication Media Arts	418	14.0			118

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	1.2
2	11	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic	2.3
3	10	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie	5.2
4	10	William Gancer	Stockbridge	5.3
5	10	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic	5.5
6	11	Julian Walker	Algonac	6.6
7	9	Grady Richey	Lansing Catholic	6.7
8	10	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic	8.3
9	9	Jack Songer	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	8.3
10	11	Owen Beindit	Algonac	12.3
11	12	Joseph Treadwell	Lansing Catholic	12.6
12	10	Finn Korte	Lansing Catholic	12.8
13	11	Henry Beck	Ann Arbor Greenhills	14.7
14	12	Jose Domecq	Leslie	15.9
15	11	Nico Aagesen	Ann Arbor Greenhills	15.9
16	12	Mason Stranahan	Ann Arbor Greenhills	16.6
17	9	Carson Potter	Lansing Catholic	16.9
18	10	Matthew Killeen	Leslie	16.9
19	10	Cooper Schmelter	Leslie	17.5
20	9	Oscar Wordell	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	18.4
21	11	Grason Weber	Leslie	20.7
22	10	Naveen Kulkarni	Ann Arbor Greenhills	21.3
23	11	Parth Ashok	Ann Arbor Greenhills	21.5
24	12	Kyan Isham	Leslie	24.3
25	11	Adam SaintOnge	Almont	25.4
26	10	Colton Grzyb	Almont	25.6
27	10	Owen Windgaston	Clawson	28.9
28	11	Earl Beattie	Marine City	30.0
29	12	Gavin Campbell	Almont	30.2
30	11	Dylan Hile	Leslie	30.2

Region 27

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Flat Rock’s assault on the finish line. The Rams have a very real possibility of their first three crossing the line in succession. Jacob Stanislawski, Nathan Vargo, and Lucas Taraszkiewicz own the fastest three times in the region and the fastest three ratings. A good formula and starting point for regional domination.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Flat Rock	50	1.1	95+	95+	13
2	Erie Mason	73	2.0	5	95+	25
3	Blissfield	106	3.1		90	32
4	Grass Lake	125	4.9		6	40
5	Monroe Jefferson	127	5.0			38
6	Clinton	141	6.4			45
7	Adrian Madison	144	6.7			43
8	Monroe St. Mary CC	146	7.0			47
9	Ottawa Lake-Whiteford	230	9.0			85
10	Ida	257	10.0			105
11	Detroit Northwestern	335	11.0			117

Individual

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock	1.4
2	12	Nathan Vargo	Flat Rock	2.7
3	11	Lucas Taraszkiewicz	Flat Rock	3.8
4	9	Christian Craanen	Monroe St. Mary CC	3.9
5	11	Trenton Fetter	Adrian Madison	4.8
6	12	Austin Sulier	Erie Mason	5.8
7	12	Ian Waddell	Blissfield	6.0
8	12	Gabe Manchester	Clinton	8.2
9	12	Parker Campbell	Erie Mason	8.9
10	11	Luke Masserant	Monroe Jefferson	10.9
11	12	Andrew Hintz	Monroe Jefferson	13.5
12	11	Luke Stanley	Ida	14.1
13	11	Connor Sherwood	Grass Lake	14.3
14	9	Phineas Totten	Monroe St. Mary CC	14.7
15	9	Michael Weidmayer	Blissfield	15.2
16	9	Noah Sills	Blissfield	15.9
17	10	Joseph Colaluca	Erie Mason	17.1
18	12	Adam Brodie	Flat Rock	18.0
19	12	Eric Ramsey	Clinton	20.4
20	11	Paul McClure	Adrian Madison	21.8
21	9	Weston Albright	Erie Mason	22.9
22	10	Connor Boteler	Grass Lake	24.0
23	9	Brayden Brodie	Flat Rock	24.9
24	9	Caleb Healey	Erie Mason	26.0
25	11	Jackson Carner	Erie Mason	26.0
26	11	Alex Holda	Grass Lake	28.9
27	12	Kevin Roberts	Ypsilanti Arbor Preparatory	29.2
28	11	Emmet Van Cleave	Grass Lake	29.3
29	10	Zack Buttigieg	Grass Lake	30.3
30	10	Austin Strand	Clinton	30.7

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 28

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

The quick East Jordan course vs. the depths of girls looking to run under 20:00. Earlier in the year at Party in the Park, Allie Nowak, Jane Manthei, and Stefi Reskevics were all able to slip under the mark. Don’t be too surprised if a few more follow.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Harbor Springs	27	1.0	95+	95+	4
2	Rogers City	74	2.1		95+	25
3	Petoskey St. Michael	83	3.0		95+	29
4	Ellsworth	109	4.1		6	36
5	East Jordan	121	4.8			39
6	Gaylord St. Mary	144	6.0			45
7	Indian River Inland Lakes	159	7.0			53
8	Mancelona	176	7.9			59

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Allie Nowak	Johannesburg-Lewiston	1.3
2	12	Jane Manthei	Petoskey St. Michael	2.0
3	10	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs	3.2
4	10	Harlie Fox	Johannesburg-Lewiston	4.4
5	12	Juniper Rodham	Harbor Springs	5.3
6	10	Avery Langlois	Rogers City	7.0
7	10	Danielle Agren	Johannesburg-Lewiston	8.6
8	10	Genevieve Rodham	Harbor Springs	9.5
9	11	Fran Warren	Harbor Springs	10.1
10	10	Veronica Paga	Petoskey St. Michael	10.8
11	10	Ruby Pletcher	Ellsworth	11.0
12	12	Tara Shouldice	Harbor Springs	12.1
13	9	Fenlynn Johnson	Rogers City	13.4
14	12	McKenzie Bowman	Harbor Springs	13.8
15	9	Sophia Balistreri	Harbor Springs	15.2
16	10	Elizabeth Furman	Indian River Inland Lakes	15.7
17	12	Elke Knauf	East Jordan	16.4
18	11	Taylor Hefele	Rogers City	18.8
19	10	Avary Bearden	East Jordan	20.5
20	11	Ella Nolan	Petoskey St. Michael	22.4
21	10	Isabella Hocking	Bellaire	24.1
22	12	Bailey Ray	Mancelona	25.0
23	9	Keri Coolman	Rogers City	25.1
24	11	Sophia Harding	Gaylord St. Mary	25.6
25	10	Natalie Fitzgerald	Ellsworth	25.6
26	9	Mea Wesley	Petoskey St. Michael	26.9
27	11	Shelby Wisnowski	Charlton Heston Academy	27.8
28	10	Morgan Reh	Bellaire	28.1
29	10	Ella Sponable	Ellsworth	28.6
30	12	Claudia DeLeo	Gaylord St. Mary	28.6

Region 29

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Although the odds are high for the top-3 ranked teams to graduate to MIS, can any of the other teams slip in there? They’re close in points and in the rankings too, and a team such as Maple City Glen Lake has knocked off those ahead of them.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Bear Lake-Onekama	55	1.0	95+	95+	9
2	Grand Traverse Academy	74	2.5		95+	15
3	Buckley	74	2.5		95+	16
4	Maple City Glen Lake	90	4.0			20
5	Leland	98	5.1			28
6	Mason County Eastern	106	5.9			24

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Callie Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	1.0
2	12	Ella Knudsen	Leland	2.3
3	10	Addy Zeller	Bear Lake-Onekama	3.6
4	10	Amelia McKinney	Grand Traverse Academy	4.3
5	9	Carmella Julian	Maple City Glen Lake	4.8
6	9	Sophie Grinage	Leland	7.7
7	9	Melodie Hulinek	Bear Lake-Onekama	8.2
8	11	Addison Jarosz	Frankfort	8.2
9	11	Leire Mahiques	Buckley	9.0
10	12	Lucy Shoup	Mason County Eastern	9.8
11	10	Addison Patrzik	Grand Traverse Academy	10.6
12	10	Natalie Burpee	Leland	12.0
13	12	Emily Alaimo	Maple City Glen Lake	13.5
14	11	Kinsey Peer	Buckley	14.5
15	9	Claire Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	15.5
16	10	Mikayla Kulawiak	Buckley	15.6
17	10	Madison Smith	Grand Traverse Academy	16.7
18	11	Natalie Brown	Bear Lake-Onekama	18.2
19	10	Bailey Case	Pentwater	18.5
20	9	Alayna Ottenbacher	Maple City Glen Lake	22.5
21	10	Brailyn Johnson	Mason County Eastern	22.7
22	10	Addison Malburg	Mason County Eastern	23.4
23	11	Addisen Harrand	Buckley	23.5
24	11	Alyssa Spicer	Mesick	24.5
25	9	Lili Migazzi	Maple City Glen Lake	26.5
26	11	Willa Roth	Frankfort	26.6
27	11	Shenoah Collier	Grand Traverse Academy	27.3
28	10	Kaylee Swanson	Buckley	28.0
29	10	Stella York	Grand Traverse Academy	30.2
30	9	Aubrey Myers	Mason County Eastern	30.2

Region 30

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Just four points and three spots in the ranking separating the projected 3^rd and 4^th squads. About a month ago at Bluejay, we were witness to a tiny preview of Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary and Beal City. The Aggies prevailed by three points, largely on the strength of Brianna Locke up front. In a smaller field, Beal City will lose a little of that advantage, though the same could be said for Michigan Lutheran Seminary’s depth.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Breckenridge	26	1.0	95+	95+	5
2	Vestaburg	54	2.0		95+	17
3	Beal City	85	3.4		66	27
4	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	89	3.7		33	30
5	St. Charles	112	4.9			37
6	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	164	6.2			47
7	Montabella	175	6.8			56

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Abigail Davis	Vestaburg	1.0
2	12	Danica Aldrich	Breckenridge	2.4
3	11	Ally Schmitz	Breckenridge	2.7
4	12	Brianna Locke	Beal City	4.1
5	12	Avery Westall	Breckenridge	6.2
6	12	Nataly Vine	Breckenridge	7.2
7	9	Maizy Matthews	Breckenridge	7.5
8	12	Jessica Penrod	Vestaburg	9.5
9	11	Olive Wakefield	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	9.7
10	12	Mickiah Allbee	Vestaburg	9.8
11	10	Nolee Leppert	Beal City	10.4
12	9	Piper Schultz	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	12.9
13	9	Skylar Maclennan	Fulton	15.4
14	11	Emma McCarty	Carson City-Crystal	17.0
15	12	Sydney Leslie	Saginaw Nouvel	17.2
16	10	Jessica Stouten	Vestaburg	17.6
17	12	Areyel Weiss	Breckenridge	18.6
18	12	Lilly Leppert	Beal City	19.4
19	10	Kaylie McCracken	Carson City-Crystal	20.9
20	9	Taylor Wills	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	21.5
21	9	Dilyn Colpean	Merrill	21.6
22	9	Anna McCarty	Carson City-Crystal	22.8
23	10	Ryann Ball	Montabella	23.6
24	12	Alexis Graham	St. Charles	24.4
25	10	Cora Carver	Vestaburg	24.6
26	9	Peyton Rohn	Ashley	25.9
27	10	Greta Schroeder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	26.2
28	12	Landry Gomez	St. Charles	27.5
29	9	Nevaeh Parker	Big Rapids Crossroads Academy	29.0
30	12	Elizabeth Kolb	St. Charles	29.9

Region 31

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Martin is a solid favorite to advance for one more week of racing, though Holland Calvary Christian will be a tough out. An advantage for Calvary Christian will be the fresh legs, at the most having raced on six occasions this fall. Martin is on the other side of the spectrum, consistently getting out there and coming off a 6^th place finish in the always tough SAC.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Gobles	35	1.0	95+	95+	8
2	Fowler	51	2.1		95+	14
3	Martin	63	3.1		85	18
4	Holland Calvary Christian	73	3.8		16	23
5	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	133	5.1			55
6	Holton	143	5.9			57

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Libby Smith	Gobles	1.1
2	10	Veyda Conley	Martin	2.7
3	10	Lauren Shaffer	Gobles	2.9
4	12	Kelcie Pung	Fowler	4.1
5	11	Madison Cooley	Gobles	6.3
6	9	Zoe Fabing	Fowler	7.1
7	12	Brielle Voorhees	Tri-Unity Christian	8.2
8	11	Acacia Williams	Holland Calvary Christian	9.0
9	10	Marian Davlin	Portland St. Patrick	11.3
10	12	Madelyn Sillman	Fowler	12.3
11	JR	Alison Rotman	Holland Calvary Christian	12.4
12	10	Ava DeYoung	Gobles	12.7
13	9	Allison Rodgers	Martin	13.4
14	9	Laura Rotman	Holland Calvary Christian	14.8
15	9	Leah Thelen	Fowler	14.9
16	12	Zoie Wood	Gobles	16.4
17	10	Sara Schipper	Martin	17.3
18	12	Olivia Laninga	Holland Calvary Christian	18.0
19	12	Mary Riley	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	18.2
20	11	Olivia Thelen	Fowler	18.8
21	12	Emily King	Martin	19.0
22	9	DuRae Sage	Martin	19.7
23	9	Addison Tomsic	Gobles	22.9
24	12	Aubrey Goyings	Holton	24.8
25	10	Kayden Jager	Martin	25.3
26	12	Annabelle McRae	Holland Calvary Christian	28.7
27	12	Olivia Cleary	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	29.3
28	12	Isabel Emerick	Vermontville Maple Valley	29.7
29	12	Hannah Hysell	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	30.3
30	8	Evelyn Hop	Libertas Christian	30.5

Region 32

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Another gem of a matchup for what looks to be the third spot. White Pigeon and Three Oaks River Valley appear to matchup spot for spot, which should be simple to discern when viewing on the Portage course. The one time these two teams saw each other was at the beginning of October, with the Chiefs finishing 10 points ahead of the Mustangs at the Portage Invite.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Bridgman	25	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	Kalamazoo Hackett	32	2.0		95+	6
3	Three Oaks River Valley	107	3.4		63	41
4	White Pigeon	111	3.9		33	43
5	New Buffalo	120	4.7			44
6	Burr Oak	150	6.0			58
7	Decatur	177	7.0			60

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Emma Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	1.3
2	12	Presley Allen	Mendon	2.1
3	12	Melanie Warren	Bridgman	3.7
4	11	Rowan Allen	Mendon	4.1
5	12	Clara Fast	Bridgman	4.7
6	10	Brie Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	6.0
7	11	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman	6.7
8	9	Anna Howell	Bridgman	8.2
9	12	Abby Ulbrich	Kalamazoo Hackett	9.3
10	11	Kate Van Es	Kalamazoo Hackett	10.3
11	12	Emily Howell	Bridgman	11.1
12	9	Kaylin Pinkowski	Bridgman	12.5
13	9	Delaney McBride	Kalamazoo Hackett	13.5
14	10	Harper Bowman	New Buffalo	15.0
15	10	Ella Hendrixson	Three Oaks River Valley	15.6
16	9	Abigail Riker	Kalamazoo Hackett	16.7
17	12	Rachel Schelstraete	White Pigeon	19.2
18	10	Anne Gradowski	New Buffalo	19.7
19	10	Emmy Nofs	Battle Creek St. Philip	21.3
20	10	Angel Milam	Bridgman	22.7
21	12	Braylyn Hernandez	Burr Oak	23.0
22	10	Helen Donner	Three Oaks River Valley	23.7
23	12	Maria Bronsink	Athens	23.8
24	12	Jamielynn Delarye	White Pigeon	25.2
25	10	Sarah Stemaly	Athens	25.4
26	11	Rachel Byler	White Pigeon	25.5
27	9	Brittney Hernandez	Three Oaks River Valley	25.6
28	12	Denisse Martinez-Vanegas	Eau Claire	25.9
29	11	Julianne Mounce	Kalamazoo Hackett	28.4
30	9	Linda Ultz	Burr Oak	28.8

Region 33

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

How low can the Trojans go? Last fall, Whitmore Lake provided a great preview of their state success, adding up to a mere 19 points here. They’ll probably be a bit higher this time around, but if their score is near or lower than projected, the Red n’ White will be in a great position to defend their crown.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Whitmore Lake	27	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Lansing Christian	61	2.4		95+	11
3	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	63	2.6		95+	13
4	Genesee Christian Academy	105	4.0			31
5	Livingston Christian	125	5.0			40
6	Webberville	144	6.0			46

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Kaylie Livingston	Whitmore Lake	1.0
2	11	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake	2.3
3	11	Taylor Wiegand	Livingston Christian	3.2
4	11	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake	4.2
5	10	Adrienne Mitchell	Lansing Christian	5.7
6	12	Brooke Sonnenberg	Genesee Christian Academy	5.7
7	12	Erica Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	7.7
8	9	Madison Markowicz	Novi Christian Academy	10.5
9	11	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake	10.5
10	12	Autumn Reynolds	Potterville	11.0
11	9	Allison Schmitt	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	11.5
12	12	Isabella Nelson-Daniels	Whitmore Lake	12.3
13	10	Annie Wernet	Lansing Christian	14.0
14	11	Juliette Tallon	Lansing Christian	14.1
15	10	Susan Nedwick	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	15.6
16	9	Gabriella Wood	Lansing Christian	15.7
17	12	Isabella Page	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	17.2
18	9	Malynda Lambros	Whitmore Lake	17.3
19	11	Alaina Driver	Potterville	17.4
20	12	Maria Saad	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	21.3
21	10	Makenna Bush	Lansing Christian	21.5
22	10	Caroline Darrah	Whitmore Lake	21.7
23	10	Jane Wilder	Webberville	22.8
24	11	Tori Ferguson	Genesee Christian Academy	23.5
25	12	Adriana Fandino	Novi Christian Academy	23.8
26	10	Natasha Mendez	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	26.7
27	12	Rebekah Hallock	Dansville	26.8
28	9	Ariana Stewart	Genesee Christian Academy	27.1
29	11	Anne McNurlen	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	28.8
30	12	Audrey Johnson	Livingston Christian	30.8

Region 34

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

A few weeks back, Petersburg Summerfield placed ahead of an incomplete Addison team at Hudson Booster. The one Panther missing was a key one, Stephanie Hernandez, who just nailed a season’s best to finish 5^th in the Cascades Conference. Of course, a Concord could always be in there, too. The Yellowjackets are missing from here because they’ve competed with a full squad only in Big 8 meets, which are a bit too small for me to perform the math on. Pittsford also has strength up front and the region is small enough that they won’t be hurt on depth. Beyond Hillsdale Academy and possibly Lenawee Christian, every spot is up for grabs.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Hillsdale Academy	25	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	Adrian Lenawee Christian	81	2.2		95+	32
3	Petersburg-Summerfield	88	3.0		88	34
4	Addison	94	3.9		13	38
5	Pittsford	112	5.0			42
6	Manchester	124	6.0			52

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Izzy Brooks	Adrian Lenawee Christian	1.0
2	10	Evelyn Meyer	Hillsdale Academy	3.3
3	12	Ella Walton	Hillsdale Academy	4.0
4	12	Aubrey Appleman	Britton Deerfield	5.2
5	12	Caroline Roberts	Hillsdale Academy	5.8
6	10	Allie Miller	Hillsdale Academy	6.7
7	12	Stephanie Hernandez	Addison	7.2
8	10	Haley Stimer	Concord	8.1
9	12	Riley McCumber	Pittsford	8.1
10	11	Makenzie Wolfe	Petersburg-Summerfield	8.4
11	11	Elizabeth Caspar	Hillsdale Academy	11.0
12	11	Audrey Nehlsen	Hillsdale Academy	11.6
13	11	Cieara Barrett	Concord	13.5
14	10	Moira Beier	Hillsdale Academy	13.6
15	10	Lillian Jagielski	Pittsford	14.4
16	9	Mya Barrett	Concord	16.7
17	10	Caroline Mason	Manchester	18.8
18	9	Ellie Woodring	Addison	18.9
19	11	Grace Raymond	Petersburg-Summerfield	19.3
20	12	Taylor Lautermilch	Camden-Frontier	20.1
21	9	Abby Raymond	Petersburg-Summerfield	20.3
22	10	Gigi Masters	Adrian Lenawee Christian	20.6
23	10	Kendalyn Perry	Addison	21.3
24	10	Kendall Plate	Adrian Lenawee Christian	24.9
25	9	Kendall Micon	Adrian Lenawee Christian	25.7
26	12	Lilly Smith	Manchester	27.8
27	12	Allison Morris	Addison	28.1
28	12	Sophia Falater	Reading	28.4
29	10	Josephine Pederson	Ann Arbor Rudolf Steiner	29.8
30	10	Hannah Ryan	Concord	30.5

Region 35

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Can Lilah Kiley win two in a row? The Kingston mid-distance star has moved from a stellar season on the track to a fall where she’s run her best times in two years. Yes, that’s right, her 19:46 at Ubly was Lilah’s fastest performance since this region’s 2022 race. Dryden’s Cara Prusakiewicz finished a bit back from Kiley at the BTC League Meet, but has brought forth the ability to expediently race, having run 20:17 at Greater Flint.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Ubly	37	1.0	95+	95+	10
2	Harbor Beach	64	2.3		95+	21
3	Unionville-Sebewaing	67	2.7		95+	19
4	Dryden	89	4.0			26
5	Brown City	119	5.0			35
6	Kinde North Huron	164	6.2			48
7	Marlette	172	6.8			54

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Lilah Kiley	Kingston	1.2
2	11	Cara Prusakiewicz	Dryden	2.3
3	9	Alyvia Janke	Unionville-Sebewaing	3.1
4	11	Katie Sweeney	Ubly	4.9
5	12	Julia Rogers	New Life Christian Academy	5.5
6	9	Payton King	Kingston	5.7
7	9	Abbygail Plester	Ubly	6.9
8	12	Reece Wruble	Harbor Beach	8.1
9	9	Myah Peruski	Ubly	10.2
10	9	Taylor Geiger	Ubly	10.6
11	12	Cambree Torma	Unionville-Sebewaing	13.0
12	9	Claire Wright	Dryden	13.0
13	12	Bridget Anderson	Harbor Beach	13.5
14	12	Kyra Beemer	Brown City	14.0
15	10	Aspen Jimkoski	Kinde North Huron	16.7
16	9	Emily Meek	Unionville-Sebewaing	17.2
17	11	HarLee Leasher	Brown City	17.4
18	9	Brooklyn Morell	Ubly	17.6
19	12	Emma Ramisch	Harbor Beach	18.7
20	10	Cailin Spearman	Harbor Beach	20.2
21	10	Spearman Cailin	Harbor Beach	22.4
22	12	Sarah Nimtz	Unionville-Sebewaing	23.6
23	11	Hailey McGuire	Kingston	24.0
24	9	Allison Steeb	Deckerville	24.4
25	9	Esther Bulgrien	Harbor Beach	25.4
26	11	Madison Prowse	Brown City	25.6
27	12	Megan Peter	Unionville-Sebewaing	27.0
28	11	Caila Fitchett	Dryden	27.5
29	9	Lilyana Lasher	Dryden	28.8
30	10	Nicole Klee	Ubly	29.3

Region 36

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Will the Auburn Hills Oakland Christian momentum continue? Watching the rankings throughout the fall, the Lancers have gradually moved up the D4 ranks. At last week’s MIAC Championship, the girls were about as close as a team will get to Whitmore Lake. A sneaky candidate to step onto the MIS medal stand.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	37	1.2	83	95+	7
2	Royal Oak Shrine	50	1.8	17	95+	12
3	Plymouth Christian Academy	72	3.0		95+	22
4	Allen Park Cabrini	100	4.0			33
5	Southfield Christian	141	6.0			50
6	Academy of the Sacred Heart	142	5.9			49
7	Austin Catholic	144	6.1			51

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	1.1
2	12	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper	2.5
3	11	Eleanor Cole	Lutheran Westland	3.8
4	11	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	4.4
5	10	Lydia Gleason	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	5.6
6	9	Cassidy Bowers	Austin Catholic	6.0
7	11	Stella Behnan	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	7.7
8	9	Deirdre O’Connell	Allen Park Cabrini	9.1
9	12	Rose Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	10.4
10	12	Bridget Miller	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	11.0
11	10	Louisa Denks	Royal Oak Shrine	11.2
12	9	Nora Tillman	Royal Oak Shrine	12.0
13	11	Raley Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	14.6
14	12	Tess Tillman	Royal Oak Shrine	16.0
15	11	Maya Ferguson	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	16.8
16	9	Ava Bates	Lutheran Westland	18.0
17	12	Sarah Goodwin	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	18.2
18	11	Alexa Ross	Academy of the Sacred Heart	18.5
19	9	Katie Vick	Plymouth Christian Academy	19.1
20	12	Ella Poulton	Royal Oak Shrine	19.3
21	10	Sydney Erickson	Lutheran Westland	19.5
22	12	Lauren Baxendale	Plymouth Christian Academy	19.9
23	10	Kassie Kozlo	Allen Park Cabrini	23.0
24	10	Ella Clarke	Southfield Christian	23.4
25	12	Blythe Drotman	Plymouth Christian Academy	25.8
26	10	Elsa Jeromin	Southfield Christian	25.9
27	12	Chloe Surhigh	Royal Oak Shrine	26.1
28	11	Zipporah Tran	Plymouth Christian Academy	26.8
29	12	Annaliese Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	26.8
30	9	Isabella Sparling	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	30.5

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Is this the same intro from last year? Heck yeah. Let’s roll through these regionals!

Region 28

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Can Cody Bradley hold off all challengers? The Guardian senior was 2^nd here last year, then 21^st at MIS. When needed, he’s raced into the mid-16’s. An Austin Sneed looks to be the main challenger, as he just recently popped a 16:35 to win the Ski Valley.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Harbor Springs	35	1.0	95+	95+	6
2	Petoskey St. Michael	60	2.1		95+	15
3	Ellsworth	86	3.0		95+	30
4	Mancelona	116	4.4			39
5	Fairview	118	4.7			40
6	Mackinaw City	141	5.9			59
7	Hale	162	7.0			71
8	Wolverine	209	8.0			82

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Cody Bradley	Petoskey St. Michael	1.4
2	12	Austin Sneed	East Jordan	3.0
3	12	Jeremiah Witt	Johannesburg-Lewiston	4.2
4	9	Grant Corlew	Harbor Springs	4.9
5	11	Khadar Jama	Ellsworth	5.2
6	12	Teddy Krieger	Harbor Springs	5.8
7	12	Russell Vandermus	Petoskey St. Michael	7.2
8	11	Cole Brege	Rogers City	7.9
9	11	Henry Kruzel	Harbor Springs	10.1
10	9	Atticus Cadarette	Petoskey St. Michael	11.8
11	11	Jack Sharar	Rogers City	12.7
12	11	Cole Upper	Lincoln-Alcona	15.4
13	11	Nicholas Trader	Fairview	15.9
14	11	Max Vroman	Harbor Springs	16.0
15	11	Cole Abney	Ellsworth	16.1
16	11	Paxton Downing	Hale	17.0
17	9	Zander Chellis	Ellsworth	17.5
18	11	Adam Ferguson	Harbor Springs	17.6
19	11	Sean Bernard	Hale	18.7
20	10	Carter Toensfeldt	Fairview	19.1
21	10	Jayden Dunnebeck	East Jordan	20.6
22	12	Jacob Chamberlain	East Jordan	21.0
23	11	Braylon Currie	Mackinaw City	23.0
24	9	Elliot Smith	Mancelona	24.2
25	12	Tanner Major	Fairview	25.7
26	9	Jacob Vroman	Harbor Springs	26.7
27	11	Matt Waggoner	Mancelona	27.3
28	9	Cole Wesley	Petoskey St. Michael	29.4
29	11	Ben Strittmatter	Mackinaw City	31.0
30	11	Darren Boyat	Lincoln-Alcona	32.2

Region 29

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Maple City Glen Lake and Mason County Eastern for the team title. The Lakers and Cardinals have gone head-to-head on three occasions this year – Pete Moss, Buckley, and Glen Lake. MCE took the first two, Glen Lake prevailed on their home course. But it’s been more than a month since then, plenty of time for individual improvement. Either way, both will likely represent the region well if they advance to the State Finals.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Mason County Eastern	55	1.1	88	95+	4
2	Maple City Glen Lake	61	1.9	12	95+	5
3	Leland	98	3.1		92	11
4	Grand Traverse Academy	123	4.5			20
5	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	133	5.4			29
6	Frankfort	135	5.3			27
7	Mesick	147	6.7			35
8	Forest Park	199	8.0			53
9	Pentwater	237	9.2			68
10	Traverse City Christian	243	9.8			75

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Kyle Redman	Mesick	1.7
2	12	Colebrook Sutherland	Maple City Glen Lake	2.4
3	12	Mason Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	3.2
4	12	Alex Tyndall	Mason County Eastern	3.6
5	10	Ty Redman	Mesick	4.6
6	10	Abraham Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	5.8
7	11	Liam McCaw	Maple City Glen Lake	7.7
8	9	Lance Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	8.1
9	10	Milo Shoup	Mason County Eastern	10.2
10	9	Beckett Dennis	Grand Traverse Academy	11.2
11	9	Carter Suttmann	Leland	12.3
12	9	Owen Jarosz	Frankfort	14.5
13	12	Parker Rubin	Grand Traverse Academy	14.7
14	9	Kaiden Lague	Mason County Eastern	14.9
15	11	Cody Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	16.5
16	10	Evan Keen	Leland	17.5
17	11	Matthew Bentley	Buckley	18.7
18	12	Greyson Hoeflinger	Bear Lake-Onekama	18.8
19	11	Oliver Mitchell	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	18.8
20	11	Keith Crompton	Frankfort	19.7
21	10	Lincoln Bailey	Maple City Glen Lake	19.8
22	12	Elijah Bauer	Traverse City Christian	21.2
23	9	Christopher Knudsen	Leland	24.8
24	9	Campbell Fedderman	Leland	25.3
25	10	Daniel Chaney	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	27.2
26	10	Cy Kosmowski	Mason County Eastern	27.6
27	10	Afton Shoup	Mason County Eastern	27.9
28	12	Henry Malburg	Mason County Eastern	28.6
29	9	Tamrak McEachern	Buckley	28.8
30	11	Garrick Collins	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	29.2

Region 30

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Can Wesley Chaffee take it over his MSAC brothers? Chaffee was the victor in the latest two league jamborees. The sophomore has improved mightily from his freshman form, consistently hitting the 16’s for the past month. Carter Clark took the first league gathering and was only 8 sec. back in last week’s final. He’s flatlined a bit here in the finishing stretch, though I’ve never learned to never count Breckenridge kids out, so don’t be shocked if Anthony Rowe is in the mix as well.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	38	1.0	95+	95+	12
2	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	69	2.1		95+	34
3	Beal City	86	3.0		95+	43
4	Breckenridge	118	4.6			55
5	Saginaw Arts & Science	118	4.7			60
6	Saginaw Nouvel	153	6.1			66
7	Montabella	166	6.7			74
8	St. Charles	191	8.0			78
9	Big Rapids Crossroads Academy	212	9.1			79
10	Vestaburg	225	9.8			81

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Wesley Chaffee	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	1.5
2	10	Anthony Rowe	Breckenridge	2.5
3	11	Carter Clark	Carson City-Crystal	2.5
4	11	Jonah Pollatz	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	4.7
5	10	Rush Marsden	Fulton	5.2
6	12	Camden Fager	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	6.3
7	10	Amos Norder	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	6.9
8	12	Logan Dudley	Coleman	8.6
9	12	Sean O’Grady	Saginaw Nouvel	10.8
10	10	Noah Dubridge	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	11.2
11	12	Rodney Iamurri	Saginaw Nouvel	11.5
12	12	Cole Tilmann	Beal City	11.7
13	11	Amos Miller	Saginaw Arts & Science	12.5
14	10	Trevor Dolloff	Ashley	14.3
15	10	Brady Edwards	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	15.0
16	9	Jonathan Egan	Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart	18.0
17	9	Logan Funnell	Beal City	18.2
18	10	Zayden Buskirk	Carson City-Crystal	18.4
19	10	Logan Whitmer	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	20.7
20	10	Jared Samyn	St. Charles	21.6
21	10	Dominick Chiverton	Breckenridge	22.0
22	11	Conner Fenton	Beal City	22.9
23	11	Jordan Weber	Beal City	26.0
24	12	Aimon Humm	Breckenridge	26.0
25	10	Payton Crawfis	Carson City-Crystal	26.4
26	11	Jakob Mueller	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	27.2
27	10	Brennan Dunn	Saginaw Arts & Science	27.6
28	11	Jacob Vanderveen	Fulton	28.5
29	10	Paul Kim	Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary	29.1
30	11	Jareth Shappee	Montabella	30.6

Region 31

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Appears to be a dead heat between Tyler Laansma and Coleson Cruzan. You have to go back to last fall’s State Finals to find a matchup between the two, and even then, there’s not much discernment, with Cruzan finishing three spots and three seconds ahead of Laansma. Here in 2024, each have found their way into the mid-16’s, Laansma grabbing a 16:26 at Allegan and Cruzan, a 16:31 at Shepherd.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Holland Calvary Christian	35	1.0	95+	95+	2
2	White Cloud	67	2.0		95+	9
3	Tri-Unity Christian	104	3.2		85	21
4	Portland St. Patrick	114	3.9		15	24
5	Fowler	155	5.2			37
6	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	168	6.6			45
7	Byron Center Zion Christian	178	7.3			50
8	Gobles	179	7.4			54
9	Martin	190	8.4			56
10	Vermontville Maple Valley	243	10.3			72
11	Holton	253	10.7			76

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Tyler Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	1.5
2	12	Coleson Cruzan	White Cloud	1.5
3	10	Noah Schipper	Holland Calvary Christian	3.7
4	10	Christian Getz	Holland Calvary Christian	5.3
5	9	Lincoln Laansma	Tri-Unity Christian	5.5
6	12	Kaleb Canning	White Cloud	5.6
7	11	Timothy Chamberlain	Portland St. Patrick	6.7
8	10	Riley Weed	Holland Calvary Christian	9.2
9	10	Caleb Adkins	Holland Calvary Christian	9.4
10	10	Brody VanTuinen	Holland Calvary Christian	9.5
11	10	Gibson White	Holland Calvary Christian	9.7
12	11	Quentin Smith	Fowler	11.7
13	10	Francis Austen	Portland St. Patrick	13.5
14	11	Freddie BIERLING	Byron Center Zion Christian	16.4
15	12	Alex Morin	Martin	17.3
16	10	Elijah Laninga	Holland Calvary Christian	17.4
17	12	Wyatt Karnes	White Cloud	17.4
18	11	Isaac FoxElster	Portland St. Patrick	18.9
19	11	Lukas Rennells	Muskegon Catholic Central	18.9
20	8	Eli Schout	Libertas Christian	22.0
21	12	Kalen Loebach	St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic	22.1
22	10	Angelo Hinson	White Cloud	22.2
23	11	David Sager	Gobles	22.3
24	10	Landon Miller	Fowler	22.6
25	9	Joseph Coon	White Cloud	23.4
26	8	Levi Oudbier	Tri-Unity Christian	24.8
27	9	Jack Feenstra	Byron Center Zion Christian	27.4
28	12	Luke Baird	Tri-Unity Christian	28.1
29	9	Eli Metcalf	Libertas Christian	30.0
30	9	Cole Ringel	Gobles	31.2

Region 32

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Very strong teams and very strong individuals lessen the drama, so I guess we ask, where is the qualifying cut off? It’s appearing as if it’ll hover around the 16^th spot, so the emphasis has to be getting into the top-15.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Kalamazoo Hackett	45	1.0	95+	95+	7
2	Bridgman	57	2.0		95+	10
3	Three Oaks River Valley	79	3.0		95+	23
4	White Pigeon	123	4.4			38
5	New Buffalo	128	4.6			41
6	Athens	156	6.0			58
7	Eau Claire	174	7.1			63
8	Colon	194	8.1			69
9	Heritage Christian Academy	208	8.8			77

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Marek Butkiewicz	Kalamazoo Hackett	1.0
2	11	Landon Rogers	Three Oaks River Valley	2.3
3	11	Sean Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	3.1
4	12	Andrew Mabry	Bridgman	3.9
5	12	Teddy Ippel	Bridgman	4.7
6	12	Ben Iobe	Mendon	6.6
7	11	Jesse Fielis	White Pigeon	6.7
8	9	Joseph Edwards	New Buffalo	9.0
9	12	Ryan Blankenship	Eau Claire	9.5
10	12	Alexander Dumont	Kalamazoo Hackett	10.6
11	10	Kellen Siems	Kalamazoo Hackett	12.0
12	11	Ethan O’Connor	Athens	12.1
13	11	Charlie Gibson	Three Oaks River Valley	13.6
14	10	Max Barron	Tekonsha	14.3
15	12	Ethan Devries	Bridgman	15.6
16	10	Elias Baldwin	Decatur	18.0
17	10	August Johnson	New Buffalo	18.7
18	10	Kyron Christner	Mendon	18.9
19	11	Beck Ytterberg	Bridgman	20.8
20	10	Jay Bronsink	Athens	21.2
21	12	Jerome Bastian	Battle Creek St. Philip	23.0
22	12	Sean Driscoll	Three Oaks River Valley	23.2
23	12	Jack Williams	White Pigeon	23.9
24	12	Carter Ernsberger	Bridgman	24.8
25	11	Clark Douglas	Bridgman	25.4
26	10	Colin Gallagher	Kalamazoo Hackett	26.1
27	12	Owen Nofs	Battle Creek St. Philip	26.2
28	10	Aiden Jackson	White Pigeon	26.8
29	9	Nathaneal Karakula	Heritage Christian Academy	28.9
30	11	Parker Volstorf	Three Oaks River Valley	30.0

Region 33

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Can Whitmore Lake strike the four-peat? Thanks to an influx of ready freshmen, the Trojans find themselves as the heavy favorite.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Whitmore Lake	43	1.0	95+	95+	8
2	Dansville	69	2.0		95+	13
3	Webberville	93	3.0		95+	28
4	Novi Christian Academy	142	4.9			46
5	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes	144	5.4			44
6	Lansing Christian	151	6.0			51
7	Livingston Christian	152	6.2			49
8	Byron	174	7.5			64
9	Genesee Christian Academy	201	9.0			67
10	Morrice	258	10.0			80

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Theodore Davis	Dansville	1.0
2	11	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake	2.0
3	9	Nolan Collins	Whitmore Lake	4.7
4	11	Josiah Johncox	Byron	4.7
5	11	Reuben Jiran	Novi Christian Academy	5.2
6	11	Ethan West	Webberville	6.8
7	11	Gavin Howery	Webberville	8.4
8	12	Aaron Crittenden	Potterville	8.9
9	9	Nathan West	Webberville	9.5
10	10	Ayden Mayr	Dansville	10.0
11	9	Anderson Karkau	Dansville	10.4
12	9	Leo Weaver	Whitmore Lake	11.4
13	11	Dan Birmingham	Whitmore Lake	14.9
14	12	Karl Wegner	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes	15.2
15	12	Nate Dillon	Whitmore Lake	15.8
16	11	Matias Greve	Lansing Christian	16.0
17	11	Nathan Camilleri	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes	17.2
18	10	Benjamin Fox	Whitmore Lake	18.2
19	10	Eric Junker	Whitmore Lake	18.6
20	12	Samuel Hubbard	Livingston Christian	18.8
21	11	Ian Ferguson	Genesee Christian Academy	19.8
22	9	Jackson Onofre	Novi Christian Academy	21.5
23	9	Randolf Schneider	Dansville	21.9
24	10	Noah Torosian	Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes	23.6
25	9	Nolan Stadel	Genesee Christian Academy	24.6
26	9	Caleb Call	Lansing Christian	27.6
27	9	Trey Johnson	Livingston Christian	27.8
28	12	Ethan Root	Dansville	29.7
29	10	Luke Meyer	Lansing Christian	29.8
30	11	Matthew Howery	Webberville	30.6

Region 34

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Gradually moving up year by year, will Grayson Rorick win his first regional? 8^th as an 8^th grader, 5^th being a freshman, 3^rd in 2023, now the favorite. In terms of place both here and at State, in terms of time including this fall, Rorick keeps it ticking. Recently, he set a lifetime best and won his first SCAA Championship. Everything is pointing towards the continued honors.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Hillsdale Academy	18	1.0	95+	95+	1
2	Manchester	71	2.0		95+	17
3	Concord	91	3.0		95+	32
4	Jackson Preparatory	122	4.7			48
5	Adrian Lenawee Christian	124	4.8			47
6	Morenci	132	5.5			57
7	Britton Deerfield	164	7.0			73

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Grayson Rorick	Hillsdale Academy	1.3
2	12	Reece Poole	Hillsdale Academy	2.4
3	11	Grant Johnson	Manchester	3.7
4	11	Luke Molenkamp	Hillsdale Academy	5.0
5	10	Timothy Gaebler	Hillsdale Academy	5.5
6	11	Henry Lindley	Hillsdale Academy	6.3
7	11	James Rahe	Hillsdale Academy	6.5
8	12	Joel Lange	Adrian Lenawee Christian	7.3
9	12	Seth Plummer	Hillsdale Academy	8.0
10	12	Beau Shaffer	Morenci	10.7
11	12	Jesse Sangster	Manchester	13.4
12	11	Paul Herendeen	Concord	13.7
13	12	Jameson Watson	Britton Deerfield	14.2
14	10	Alec Dodak	Manchester	15.0
15	12	Diego BoCole	Jackson Preparatory	15.6
16	11	Maddox Hutchinson	Concord	16.2
17	11	Dallas Swaenepoel	Vandercook Lake	16.4
18	12	Dustin Hamilton	Concord	19.2
19	10	Keaton Smith	Concord	20.0
20	10	Harper Doyle	Manchester	21.1
21	10	Michael Navitskis	Manchester	22.4
22	11	Corey Dubnicki	Jackson Preparatory	22.4
23	12	Kaleb Richardson	Adrian Lenawee Christian	25.7
24	12	Logan Mishaw	Jackson Preparatory	26.3
25	12	Darran Drake	Camden-Frontier	27.8
26	12	Wyatt Berger	Morenci	28.6
27	10	Noah Lucas	Addison	28.8
28	10	Colin Brown	Petersburg-Summerfield	29.7
29	10	Dylan McCallister	Reading	30.3
30	9	Tony Gudakunst	Addison	30.7

Region 35

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Gotta love a good battle for a qualifying spot. This one seems to include Unionville-Sebewaing and Marlette. Close in proximity and with Thumb teams often competing close to home, these two squads have toed the line on four separate occasions. Early on, the Red Raider pack overwhelmed the Patriots. Recently, USA has been splitting Marlette’s 3^rd & 4^th runners, which has closed the gap in terms of points.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Dryden	55	1.1	94	95+	14
2	Harbor Beach	68	2.1	6	95+	16
3	Unionville-Sebewaing	78	3.2		64	22
4	Marlette	83	3.6		37	25
5	Mayville	139	5.0			52
6	Deckerville	163	6.5			62
7	Kingston	163	6.6			65
8	Brown City	184	7.9			70

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Brody Karg	Harbor Beach	1.1
2	11	Carson Burgess	Brown City	2.6
3	12	Zack Becker	Unionville-Sebewaing	3.2
4	12	Matthew Pasiak	Harbor Beach	4.3
5	11	Logan Romain	Dryden	5.6
6	9	Levi Fitchett	Dryden	6.2
7	11	Michael Walsh	Ubly	7.5
8	12	Turlough Bennett	Marlette	9.1
9	6	Nino Perna	Marlette	9.5
10	10	Brennan Robinson	Kingston	10.0
11	10	Owen Wruble	Harbor Beach	10.6
12	12	Isaac Bignall	Unionville-Sebewaing	13.0
13	12	Joel Enos	Mayville	13.4
14	12	Noah Hall	Dryden	15.8
15	10	Thijs Van Rijn	Kingston	16.7
16	11	Nick Abromaitis	Dryden	17.2
17	11	Evan Gobie	Deckerville	18.2
18	12	Sean Finnigan	Dryden	18.4
19	–	Caden Meyer	Marlette	20.7
20	9	Brendan Aeder	Unionville-Sebewaing	20.8
21	11	Jacob Campbell	New Life Christian Academy	21.5
22	9	Lukas Brown	Unionville-Sebewaing	24.1
23	–	Anthony Rosario	Marlette	24.3
24	12	Mark Bulgrien	Harbor Beach	26.0
25	9	Zachary Crumby	Unionville-Sebewaing	26.3
26	9	Jaycen Roberts	Dryden	26.8
27	11	Dylan Lasher	Dryden	27.3
28	12	Nate Carey	Mayville	28.2
29	11	Luke Thomas	Marlette	28.4
30	9	Maksim Kohl	Unionville-Sebewaing	28.9

Region 36

Summer Projections
Mid-Season

What’s the Battle?

Coming off a runner-up finish in the PSL, can Frederick Douglass ride the momentum to a state berth? The Ibis have two low sticks, Jeremiah Thurman and Joel Johnson, each showing the ability to race into the 17’s. If they’re able to find more improvement from the young folks behind those two, an upset could brew at Royal Oak.

Team

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Qualify %	State Rank
1	Royal Oak Shrine	45	1.0	95+	95+	3
2	Lutheran Westland	105	2.4		95+	18
3	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	107	2.8		88	19
4	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	124	4.7			26
5	Riverview Gabriel Richard	126	4.9		7	33
6	Detroit Frederick Douglass	132	5.5		7	31
7	Plymouth Christian Academy	143	6.8			36
8	Allen Park Cabrini	161	8.0			42
9	Austin Catholic	184	9.0			61
10	Detroit Davis Aerospace	288	10.1			83
11	Detroit Crockett	324	10.9			84

Individual

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	1.0
2	10	Jacob Ferdubinski	Riverview Gabriel Richard	2.3
3	11	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy	3.5
4	10	Vern Clyne	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	5.1
5	11	Michael Bowker	Royal Oak Shrine	6.6
6	11	Max Brannan	Lutheran Westland	7.4
7	11	Rich Fanti	Riverview Gabriel Richard	8.4
8	9	Simon Reed	Plymouth Christian Academy	8.7
9	11	Andrew Lopez	Royal Oak Shrine	9.3
10	11	Joel Johnson	Detroit Frederick Douglass	10.6
11	12	Nico DiPonio	Austin Catholic	11.4
12	11	Carter Russelburg	Allen Park Cabrini	14.2
13	11	Caesar Soma	Royal Oak Shrine	14.4
14	12	Evan Jacobs	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	14.7
15	12	Tom Shafer	Lutheran Westland	14.7
16	12	Joseph Kemp	Royal Oak Shrine	15.5
17	11	jeremiah Thurman	Detroit Frederick Douglass	16.0
18	11	Dominic Barretto	Riverview Gabriel Richard	20.7
19	12	Andrew Gerrits	Birmingham Roeper	21.2
20	10	Finn Kneer	New Haven Merritt Academy	21.3
21	9	Liam Knuth	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	21.4
22	12	Charlie Radziszewski	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	22.1
23	9	Will Bernacki	Royal Oak Shrine	23.7
24	10	Aaron Lenn	Cardinal Mooney Catholic	25.0
25	10	Uzziel Thomassen	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	25.5
26	11	Andrew Rosso	Austin Catholic	26.2
27	9	Barron Denham	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	26.3
28	10	Ian Scott	Lutheran Westland	26.8
29	11	Seth Witte	Lutheran Westland	28.0
30	12	Brock Morris	Southfield Christian	28.1