Uncategorized

Championship Season Projections

Started early with the simulations! Maybe I’ll pen another explanation this year, maybe I’ll just continually quote last year’s regional posts. I’m gonna do the latter for now and pray that some free time arises in the next few weeks.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner TimeTanner RatingTanner Avg.Tanner StDev.
15:30210  
15:45205  
16:00200  
16:15195  
16:301902007.91
MIXCSR TimeMIXCSR RatingMIXCSR Avg.MIXCSR StDev.
16:09197  
16:12196  
16:15195  
16:18194  
16:211931951.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

RaceTanner Avg.Tanner StDevTanner RatingMIXCSR Avg.MIXCSR StDevMIXCSR Rating
12007.9202.11951.6195.6
22007.9196.21951.6194.1
32007.9190.01951.6199.2
42007.9193.41951.6192.5
52007.9206.81951.6195.7
62007.9201.81951.6196.1
72007.9171.61951.6194.9
82007.9189.21951.6195.9
92007.9205.51951.6197.0
102007.9203.81951.6192.6
112007.9192.31951.6196.5
122007.9196.91951.6196.4
132007.9198.51951.6195.6
142007.9203.21951.6194.1
152007.9193.91951.6192.6
162007.9199.31951.6193.2
172007.9208.71951.6194.2
182007.9213.71951.6194.6
192007.9212.61951.6197.1
202007.9206.31951.6193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Since this is an election year and if you’re anything like me, following Nate Silver/538/Nate Cohn religiously, you’ll find that election models and speed ratings are very similar! For instance, here’s 538’s national polling average, which would equate to a runner’s average speed rating. Election models weigh polls based on their sample size, margin of error, past biases, and recency. I weigh races based on recency, sample size, and their competitiveness. Election models spit out a forecast, which runs simulations based on the polls, their weights, and other factors. These are essentially a forecast as well, simulations based on weighted average and variability. People get incensed at these statisticians on Twitter and I’m sure kids grumble about me at XC practice. 🙂

I know many of these meets have trophies that are split into divisions, but they’re all run as one single race. It’s a pain to separate, filter, and score those divisions and I’m just getting used to running simulations after 11 months away. So for now, these are scored as they’re run – one race.

OAKLAND COUNTY

Boys

PlaceTeamScore
1Clarkston87
2Oxford118
3Highland-Milford149
4Troy206
5Lake Orion210
6Rochester220
7Detroit Catholic Central223
8Novi263
9Walled Lake Northern273
10Troy Athens322
11Holly337
12Royal Oak382
13Royal Oak Shrine411
14Detroit Country Day412
15Rochester Adams427
16South Lyon441
17South Lyon East524
18Farmington544
19Rochester Hills Stoney Creek557
20Bloomfield Hills559
21Pontiac Notre Dame Prep585
22Rochester Hills Lutheran NW612
23West Bloomfield640
24Beverly Hills Groves641
25Orchard Lake St. Mary’s649
26Auburn Hills Oakland Christian749
27Birmingham Seaholm769
28Berkley785
29Brother Rice799
30North Farmington843
31Waterford Kettering907
32Madison Heights Lamphere935
33Walled Lake Western952
34Novi Christian Academy1013
35Walled Lake Central1044
36Clawson1051
37Waterford Mott1090
38Oak Park1119
39Auburn Hills Avondale1205

PlaceGradeNameTeam
111Kyle O’RourkeHighland-Milford
212Alexander McArthurOxford
312Taye LevensonBloomfield Hills
411Abenezer CeroneRoyal Oak Shrine
512Kian SchneeweisTroy
611Ryan BarnesClarkston
712James CusickOxford
812Cayden DeGrendelClarkston
912Drew AbbottDetroit Catholic Central
1011Max HouvenerLake Orion
1111Nate LindenTroy Athens
1211Dylan PascoeRochester
1312Collin McLaughlinRochester
1412Maxton MyrandOxford
1511David DubeckClarkston
1611Evan OwczarekRochester
179Nole LorenzenRochester Hills Lutheran NW
1811Bastien BeaubienHighland-Milford
1912Raymond Lucero IILake Orion
2010Musa KayWest Bloomfield
2112Nolan TillRoyal Oak
2212Myles LindenTroy Athens
2312Chase GriffithWalled Lake Northern
2410Broden LaddHolly
2510Trevor BaptistNovi
2612Joshua EllingsworthClarkston
2712Blake PeardonLake Orion
2812Isaak BrookPontiac Notre Dame Prep
299Todd TobinHighland-Milford
3012Benjamin PeuraFarmington
3112Jaxson NowikClarkston
3212Jacob HopkinsDetroit Country Day
3311Finn GammerathWalled Lake Northern
3410Briggs WarrenNovi
3511Gavin TischDetroit Catholic Central
3612Aiden BaughWaterford Kettering
3711Cole WisniewskiOrchard Lake St. Mary’s
3811Cayden CanhamOxford
399Cooper McNaughtonClarkston
4010Trevor MurphyHolly
4112Thomas WatsonDetroit Catholic Central
4211Soma SatoNovi
4311Aiden LaVictorBeverly Hills Groves
4410Nathan BrussWalled Lake Northern
4511Alex HamiltonNorth Farmington
4610Omar ElbashirDetroit Country Day
4712Kent WilsonClarkston
4811Nolan CollinsBrother Rice
4911Isaac GermanNovi
5011Isaac ClarkTroy

Girls

PlaceTeamScore
1Rochester99
2Rochester Adams146
3Clarkston173
4Farmington228
5Royal Oak238
6Oxford242
7Novi248
8Troy259
9Walled Lake Northern276
10Pontiac Notre Dame Prep327
11Rochester Hills Stoney Creek388
12Birmingham Seaholm389
13Lake Orion394
14Walled Lake Central411
15Bloomfield Hills415
16Highland-Milford428
17Berkley431
18Detroit Country Day447
19Auburn Hills Oakland Christian486
20South Lyon East559
21Farmington Hills Mercy578
22Holly609
23Troy Athens614
24Bloomfield Hills Marian624
25Royal Oak Shrine624
26South Lyon684
27Orchard Lake St. Mary’s696
28Beverly Hills Groves735
29Oak Park748
30North Farmington807
31Madison Heights Lamphere969
32West Bloomfield997
33Wixom St. Catherine998
34Rochester Hills Lutheran NW1020
35Walled Lake Western1042
36Waterford Kettering1093
37Novi Christian Academy1115
38Southfield Christian1178
39Academy of the Sacred Heart1187
40Waterford Mott1226

PlaceGradeNameTeam
112Lucy CookRochester
212Mallory BigelowOxford
311Leah CorbyRochester Hills Stoney Creek
412Mea D’AgostinoOrchard Lake St. Mary’s
510Katelynn EgliNovi
610El McMahanRochester Adams
712Eliza KeithAuburn Hills Oakland Christian
89Paige RohdaBerkley
912Catherine SteeleFarmington
1011Ella AbrahamRochester
1112Taylor BrodeurOxford
1211Audrey HamiltonTroy
139Ava ThomasRochester Adams
1410Addison BrighamClarkston
1511Addison HerrBloomfield Hills
1612Kaitlyn KauppilaRochester Adams
1712Maria NunningPontiac Notre Dame Prep
1811Taylor ParsonsRochester
199Eliana FredrickWalled Lake Northern
2011Cecilia KreiterRochester Adams
2110Emily AltWalled Lake Northern
2210Jillian BroylesHighland-Milford
2310Avery DeGrendelClarkston
249Charlotte JonesRochester
2512Madie MillerTroy
2610Kendal RussetteClarkston
2710Allie GallagherWalled Lake Northern
2811Nora GerzemaFarmington Hills Mercy
2910Linda LopezLake Orion
3012Cora LiuNorth Farmington
319Alexa SiegelWalled Lake Central
3210Claire PorinskySouth Lyon East
3312Natalie GibbsBirmingham Roeper
3410Anna MacdonaldRoyal Oak
3512Molly BaraccoFarmington
3611Kierra MagnerFarmington
3712Stephanie BulatRochester
3812Skylar VanheckePontiac Notre Dame Prep
3911Mya TassNovi
4012Nell StoverDetroit Country Day
4110Olivia JenneyBloomfield Hills
429Olivia PetersonRoyal Oak
439Alexa SiegalWalled Lake Central
4410Jane MeineckeRoyal Oak
4510Paige HallerWalled Lake Central
4610Paityn SweetClarkston
4712Mia SnellgroveRochester
4811Kayla WardSouth Lyon
4911Annabelle EllenbogenDetroit Country Day
5010Maddie LindleyHolly

GREATER FLINT

Boys

PlaceTeamScore
1Frankenmuth82
2Flint Powers Catholic93
3Davison129
4Corunna158
5Hartland191
6Grand Blanc204
7Fenton210
8Flint Kearsley224
9Goodrich253
10Flushing254
11Lapeer294
12Lake Fenton360
13Otisville LakeVille399
14Swartz Creek400
15Owosso403
16Dryden411
17Ovid-Elsie461
18Almont491
19Ortonville Brandon513
20Linden518
21Montrose570
22New Lothrop570
23Chesaning594
24Genesee Christian Academy690
25Burton-Bendle753
26Genesee828
27Mt Morris864

PlaceGradeNameTeam
111Bryce GrossFlint Powers Catholic
29Lennox NaswellFlint Powers Catholic
311Vincent PattisonGoodrich
412James LatstetterFlushing
512Jack LillywhiteFlint Kearsley
612Simon ErfourthOwosso
79Gavin KaticFenton
812Jacob EssenmacherLapeer
910Nicklas ParkerFrankenmuth
1011Tyler LeachOtisville LakeVille
1111Brett MagnusFrankenmuth
1212Ethan SellersFlint Kearsley
1312Bobby DonleyCorunna
1411Anthony PlanaFrankenmuth
1512Luke MeyerDavison
1612Cougar ClarkFrankenmuth
1711Braden ShiposhHartland
1811Noah LinstromDavison
1910Ezra NellisCorunna
2010Levi MayerDavison
2111Payton ChandlerCorunna
2211Cole PergramFrankenmuth
2312Maxwell MerrillGrand Blanc
2411Cole FernandezFlint Kearsley
2511Thomas BeiterFlint Powers Catholic
2612Tanner SmithDavison
2711Jonny StrilerSwartz Creek
289Gerard GilmourFenton
2912Cole WinterGoodrich
3010Ben BoucheyFlint Powers Catholic
3111Griffin GoodFlushing
3211Charlie SmithGrand Blanc
3312Jaxon StrauchCorunna
349Wyatt RobertsOtisville LakeVille
3511Brodie LicataLake Fenton
369Ryan RathsburgFlint Powers Catholic
3711Caleb CarignanFlint Powers Catholic
389Gerard GilmoreFenton
3910Connor O’ReillyDavison
4012Jaylen WildmanFlushing
4111William DeanGrand Blanc
4212Clay PowellOvid-Elsie
4310Ethan HawkinsHartland
4412Jack CostaHartland
4511Maximillian BladzikGrand Blanc
4611Wyatt ShawHartland
4710Cooper SteckrothLake Fenton
4810Hayden PreisterHartland
4910Lucas KeilenHartland
5011Cohen ParilLapeer

Girls

PlaceTeamScore
1Goodrich42
2Hartland77
3Linden121
4Frankenmuth137
5Davison160
6Grand Blanc179
7Owosso185
8Flint Powers Catholic236
9Lapeer253
10Lake Fenton306
11Corunna332
12Flint Kearsley368
13Fenton377
14Flushing404
15Almont414
16Genesee Christian Academy439
17Dryden444
18Ovid-Elsie447
19Chesaning460
20New Lothrop516
21Ortonville Brandon521
22Swartz Creek534
23Montrose687
24Mt Morris788

PlaceGradeNameTeam
111Natalie FoltzFrankenmuth
210Alivia OttingerGoodrich
312Grace EvanoffFlint Powers Catholic
412Grace TykockiGrand Blanc
510Ava GoodmanHartland
612Kamryn LauingerGoodrich
79Kayla ShellenbargerGoodrich
812Layla JordanGoodrich
910Addison JosephsonLinden
1011Sophia NunneryHartland
1111Elliana NeuerHartland
1211Nevaeh PolovinaDavison
1311Samantha BrownClio
1410Lucy ConzelmannFrankenmuth
1510Claire BrownGoodrich
1612Avery ByrneGoodrich
1710Melody MeckstrothLinden
1810Baylor LauingerGoodrich
1912Chloe JosephsonLinden
2010Brooklyn WiltseDavison
219Hannah DePestelHartland
2211Elise BardenFrankenmuth
2312Josie JenkinsonOwosso
2412Grace MurphyFlint Powers Catholic
2512Julionna WestOwosso
2610Sidney ShepardLinden
2712Olivia GartrellDavison
2812Zoe HowardHartland
2912Hayven ThielCorunna
3011Lilah WeberLapeer
3110Elliana HuftonLake Fenton
3211Ivy ForrestDavison
3312Natalie SummerlandOwosso
3412Brooke SonnenbergGenesee Christian Academy
3511Cara PrusakiewiczDryden
3610Jaidyn NickelsCorunna
379Mila VillarrealFlint Powers Catholic
3812Camden EssenmacherHartland
399Leah HumphreyGrand Blanc
409Abby CrandellOwosso
419Ana LovellLake Fenton
4210Olivia LinskiHartland
4311Nadia CordesLapeer
4410Molly GaudardFlint Kearsley
459Livia WillingGrand Blanc
4610Paige WillmanLake Fenton
479Molly RobertsLinden
489Averie SchonsLapeer
4910Micali TeepleGrand Blanc
5012Taryn CravenFenton

WAYNE COUNTY

Boys

PlaceTeamScore
1Canton56
2Livonia Churchill58
3Plymouth90
4Salem115
5New Boston Huron178
6Flat Rock210
7Dearborn Divine Child289
8Livonia Stevenson307
9Grosse Pointe North307
10Detroit U-D Jesuit351
11Dearborn354
12Allen Park368
13Redford Union368
14Detroit Renaissance447
15Lutheran Westland463
16Riverview Gabriel Richard463
17Wyandotte Roosevelt486
18Livonia Franklin533
19Wayne Memorial575
20Plymouth Christian Academy597
21Dearborn Fordson598
22Westland John Glenn630
23Allen Park Cabrini638
24Riverview692
25Belleville696
26Southgate Anderson705
27Trenton732
28Lincoln Park779
29Dearborn Heights Crestwood805
30Dearborn Henry Ford Academy878
31Garden City880
32Melvindale887
33Detroit East English910

PlaceGradeNameTeam
111Aiden PengellyCanton
212Colin MurrayDearborn Divine Child
312Joseph RohmfeldLivonia Churchill
412Chase WoltersLivonia Churchill
512Lucas KuhnNew Boston Huron
612Malcolm SpeigleLivonia Churchill
711Jacob StanislawskiFlat Rock
811Lucas LaPointePlymouth
912Jack ChadwickPlymouth
1012Clark MaddenCanton
1111Steven DusseauCanton
1211Luke DuleckiNew Boston Huron
1310Jack HannerSalem
1412Ben ClarkCanton
1512Ben MussenPlymouth
169Mourad AlgahmiDearborn Fordson
1712Nathan VargoFlat Rock
1811Hudson WojtkowiczLivonia Churchill
1912Cole TriffleCanton
2011Adrian ClarkePlymouth
2110Jacob FerdubinskiRiverview Gabriel Richard
2212Isaac DemetterSalem
2312Ethan MorcheLivonia Churchill
2410Austin MercadoSalem
2511Lucas TaraszkiewiczFlat Rock
2612Aaron MessingLivonia Stevenson
2712Adam DickenCanton
2812Teo CondevauxLivonia Churchill
2911Parker SzymczakSalem
3011John NiemenskiSalem
3112Max MartinSalem
3211Jaden DingSalem
3312Caleb KoselGrosse Pointe North
3410Tyler BjorklundLivonia Churchill
3511Daniel NiehausPlymouth
3611Tobin CollinsCanton
3711Emmanuel MehariPlymouth Christian Academy
3810Noah AmoriWyandotte Roosevelt
3911Jason AndersonDearborn
4012Kyle BillerNew Boston Huron
4111Jackson RabyAllen Park
4210Justin MkrtumianDetroit U-D Jesuit
439Simon ReedPlymouth Christian Academy
4410Cameron CraneNew Boston Huron
4511Max BrannanLutheran Westland
4612Diego Islas-MontantesPlymouth
4710William BalasiaDetroit U-D Jesuit
4811Marcel LakeDetroit Renaissance
4911Tommy BuckalewWestland John Glenn
509Landen MartellPlymouth

Girls

PlaceTeamScore
1Salem85
2Dearborn Divine Child118
3Livonia Franklin125
4Livonia Churchill146
5Plymouth178
6Canton180
7Livonia Stevenson217
8New Boston Huron225
9Trenton250
10Wyandotte Roosevelt288
11Grosse Pointe North290
12Dearborn331
13Plymouth Christian Academy386
14Dearborn Heights Crestwood404
15Allen Park428
16Belleville451
17Allen Park Cabrini464
18Southgate Anderson464
19Lutheran Westland470
20Garden City550
21Detroit Renaissance560
22Dearborn Fordson583
23Wayne Memorial619
24Detroit University Prep665
25Westland John Glenn736
26Dearborn Henry Ford Academy744
27Detroit International Academy862

PlaceGradeNameTeam
110Annabeth HazlewoodSalem
212Kaelin HughesLivonia Stevenson
312Ava PetersLivonia Franklin
411Mackenzie DickenPlymouth
511Rianna RadulescuLivonia Churchill
611Avery TurkNew Boston Huron
711Becca JudSalem
811Eleanor GrantWyandotte Roosevelt
911Eleanor ColeLutheran Westland
1010Julie SchuesslerLivonia Churchill
1112Marisa ChueyTrenton
1212Kathryn KurtinaitisDearborn Divine Child
1310Samantha BartellSalem
1412Rosa BrodyCanton
1512Ilett MartinezWayne Memorial
1612Brooklyn HannahLivonia Franklin
1712Megan WoelkersFlat Rock
1811Falyn DossNew Boston Huron
1911Kinsey NordbeckLivonia Franklin
2012Tess SciclunaDearborn Divine Child
2112Kayla SladeDearborn Divine Child
2211Rachael HalkeyLivonia Churchill
2311Madi HarePlymouth Christian Academy
2411Margo KaledasSalem
2511Anna KujansuuDearborn Divine Child
2610Kayla ChristesenNew Boston Huron
2711Caroline LaPointePlymouth
289Lucy MorrowLivonia Franklin
299Jamie GlatfelterTrenton
3010Adrianna ZubAllen Park
319Deirdre O’ConnellAllen Park Cabrini
3210Leah GrezakLivonia Stevenson
339Joy SchuckSouthgate Anderson
3412Ashlei AnatalioGrosse Pointe North
3511Natalie WorkmanLivonia Churchill
3611Mia FernandezCanton
3711Sarah WazneDearborn Heights Crestwood
3812Alaa SelmanDearborn Heights Crestwood
3911Elizabeth SalinasDearborn Divine Child
4011Simona HoriaDearborn
4110Addie JonesSalem
429Chloe CratsenburgPlymouth
4310Liv BrodyCanton
4412Yana ChamisoCanton
4512Mercedes DziendzielWyandotte Roosevelt
4612Devyn DoreyTrenton
4712Katie MadiganGrosse Pointe North
4812Isabel Farley-GillayPlymouth
4912Jillian WygonikDearborn Divine Child
509Joelle SaadDearborn

CALHOUN COUNTY

Boys

PlaceTeamScore
1Marshall23
2Battle Creek Harper Creek37
3Lake Odessa Lakewood80
4Colon110

PlaceGradeNameTeam
112Jack BidwellMarshall
212Dominic LowrieBattle Creek Harper Creek
310Abraham McHughMarshall
412Reece DavisMarshall
511Cooper GardnerBattle Creek Harper Creek
610Christian AyresBattle Creek Harper Creek
711Clark ErwinMarshall
811Ty WinchellMarshall
911Cameron WeersMarshall
1012Riley JohnsonLake Odessa Lakewood
1112Jordan LindauerBattle Creek Harper Creek
1211Chase WeersMarshall
1310Max BarronTekonsha
1410Bryce GoodemootLake Odessa Lakewood
1512Owen HunterBattle Creek Harper Creek

Girls

PlaceTeamScore
1Marshall33
2Battle Creek Harper Creek37
3Battle Creek Pennfield74
4Lake Odessa Lakewood96

PlaceGradeNameTeam
111Julia FaberBattle Creek Harper Creek
211Leah McPartlinMarshall
39Rylee ZumerBattle Creek Harper Creek
49Alaina DillonMarshall
511Peyton RhoadesBattle Creek Pennfield
612Savannah RichmondMarshall
710Layla SilkworthBattle Creek Harper Creek
89Raelin SchrockLake Odessa Lakewood
911Adriana DomingoMarshall
109Ellie BowenBattle Creek Pennfield
1111Maura YoungMarshall
1211Alaina HoffmanMarshall
1311Ellie FeneleyBattle Creek Harper Creek
1411Everlyn VanValkenburgBattle Creek Harper Creek
1510Elizabeth AntesBattle Creek Harper Creek
Uncategorized

2024 Rankings: UP, Homeschool, & Others – Championship Season

Week 3

The above link contains the best explanation of the year.

Week 4

These rankings contain meets through Saturday (9/28). If a runner has had a rated race since September 1st, they’re included (sadly, I have to account for injured athletes). These are for fun and done for free. Enjoy!

Recap

Seeming like it’s all Marquette that I write about, but when you finish 4th at Griak and win Bluejay, it’s all deserved. Vibes and numbers-based, I think they’re the 2nd best team in Michigan right now. In any normal, non-Northville year, the best.

A new arrival to the top-10 is Ironwood, winners in the Baraga Invite. The Red Devils were able to place three seniors under 19. Leading the way has been Zach Smith, hitting the 17’s on each of his last two efforts, hoping to improve on his 9th place D2 finish from 2023.

Looking Forward

Painesdale-Jeffers hoping to secure a Copper Mountain title. The Jets overwhelmed their foes at Ewen-Trout Creek, all varsity runners in the top-11, the kinda form that wins Division 2 titles.

Eastern UP battles between Rudyard and Engadine. Engadine claimed the first one at EUP #1, adjusting to the 4600m distance (due to logging – UP problems), 35-49 over Rudyard. You’ve got another EUP duel and the Rudyard Autumn Classic quick on the horizon.

All the Full Teams

RankTeamScoreDivisionTop 5 Avg.Last Week
1Marquette20UP 1198.81
2Sault Ste. Marie59UP 1178.12
3Houghton139UP 1152.23
4Painesdale-Jeffers152UP 2148.44
5Gladstone171UP 1140.05
6Munising229UP 2139.26
7Rudyard260UP 2127.97
8Engadine316UP 3117.78
9Dollar Bay355UP 3109.99
10Ironwood357UP 2112.312
11Ishpeming Westwood367UP 1110.110
12Stephenson367UP 3108.711
13Menominee393UP 1104.114
14Gwinn397UP 295.113
15Negaunee407UP 1102.715
16Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer412UP 2101.416
17Calumet444UP 166.717
18Escanaba460UP 190.918
19Manistique488UP 287.219
20Eben Jct. Superior Central533UP 381.020
21Newberry580UP 367.521
22Hancock593UP 264.322
23Kingsford601UP 152.123
24Rock Mid-Peninsula629UP 349.2NR
25Powers North Central635UP 1-15.824
26Forest Area677UP 348.2NR
27Carney-Nadeau757UP 3-41.525

Recap

Interesting week. At El Harger, Houghton rollllled over Marquette, 26-78. Four in the top seven, pure numbers up front on the way to a substantial victory. Then at Shepherd, the Sentinels’ 3rd-5th girls ran a solid two minutes faster, helping the team place 22nd of 33 in the elite division. Perhaps they tempo’ed at Munising? Anyhow, both performances were indicative of teams capable of winning Division 1.

The largest move came from Chassell, their girls shifting from 14th to 10th. As the weather has turned, so too has Sylvia Aho, racing to two consecutive 21-min. efforts, a good 1-2 minute improvement from her freshman era.

Looking Forward

The big one seems to be the Houghton Invite, which will contain Houghton, Hancock, and Negaunee. Hancock and Negaunee seem to be running similarly, Hancock coming ahead at Mid-Peninsula Conference, Negaunee at Tracy Strom. The Bulldogs are appearing to be a shoe-in for the D2 crown, Negaunee is an underdog for a top-3 spot in D1, but still in contention.

All the Full Teams

RankTeamScoreDivisionTop 5 Avg.Last Week
1Marquette56UP 195.02
2Houghton66UP 195.41
3Hancock153UP 264.93
4Sault Ste. Marie176UP 158.34
5Ewen-Trout Creek219UP 345.55
6Negaunee239UP 144.46
7Gladstone289UP 126.59
8Newberry327UP 334.68
9Munising327UP 221.47
10Chassell331UP 319.814
11Calumet335UP 119.710
12Kingsford355UP 116.118
13Pickford355UP 323.012
14Baraga360UP 212.911
15Escanaba387UP 18.715
16Brimley398UP 32.513
17Ironwood399UP 28.817
18Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer401UP 26.116
19Stephenson453UP 3 20
20St. Ignace502UP 3 21
21Ishpeming Westwood505UP 1 19
22Powers North Central556UP 1 24
23Manistique566UP 2 22
24Rudyard577UP 2 23
25Rapid River586UP 3 25
26West Iron County613UP 2 26
27Holy Name706UP 3 NR
28Eben Jct. Superior Central722UP 3 27

Individual Rankings

Recap

Armelagos to Argeropoulos, I’ve gotta give a shout to my fellow Greek, Peter Argeropoulos. His 16:01 at Shepherd was by far the best performance of his life. Coming into Saturday’s race at Bluejay, his previous best was 16:33. Huge performance to lead his Marquette brethren to victory.

Perhaps the biggest mover was Painesdale-Jeffers’ Landon Larson. He’s recaptured his freshman and sophomore form, the kinda form that finished 2nd in 2022 and won in 2023. Running much of the season in the 18’s, he unleashed a 17:11 to win at Ewen-Trout Creek.

Looking Forward

Finally. FINALLY. Luck has had it that when Gabe Litzner traveled downstate, he’s competed in sections without much elite competition. That changes Saturday in the D1 race at Portage.

Top 30

RankGradeNameTeamRating
111Gabe LitznerSault Ste. Marie212.2
212Seppi CamilliMarquette210.3
311Rorik HolmquistMarquette197.9
412James BarchMarquette195.8
511Peter ArgeropoulosMarquette195.5
612Evan BalkoMarquette194.6
712Chase ThomsenMarquette193.0
811Shea ArmstrongSault Ste. Marie192.4
912Danny GossMunising189.8
1012Kalvin KyttaChassell189.7
1110Lucas BallardMarquette183.2
1212Birk SeagrenHoughton180.6
1311Landon LarsonPainesdale-Jeffers170.6
1411Cameron AndersonPainesdale-Jeffers168.6
1512Evan HuyckSault Ste. Marie165.5
1612Trevor NolanMunising164.3
1712Eli HillsSault Ste. Marie164.1
1811Steven KirschnerRudyard163.2
1911Benjamin HemmerHoughton162.0
2012Zach SmithIronwood161.7
2111Daniel BowermanSault Ste. Marie156.3
2212Dakota TaylorEngadine153.9
2311Canon KuntzeStephenson153.9
2411Adam BrandtSault Ste. Marie153.1
2510Andrew JunttilaCalumet151.2
269Brandon Van KarsenHoughton149.9
2710Chase AldridgeSault Ste. Marie149.4
2811Max BeauchampGladstone147.2
2912Brayden BourionMenominee147.0
3012Weston KnaufPowers North Central144.4

Recap

Took awhile, but now Talya Schreiber is contained within the rankings. Her early meets were either too small or mud runs. The waiting was worth it, she’s surely continued her winning form from 2023. In Upper Peninsula action, she’s won 11 consecutive races. Her main competition has been right in the area, Samantha Taylor finishing 12 sec. back at the first EUP Jamboree.

Looking Forward

Pickford’s goin’ to Portage as well. The Panthers are placed in D3, a great spot that Schreiber won’t be overwhelmed and can compete near the front. Currently, I’d have her around 15th-20th in D3. But take in the caveat that she GREATLY outperformed the ratings at MITCA last year.

Top 30

RankGradeNameTeamRating
111Talya SchreiberPickford132.2
211Samantha TaylorNewberry131.7
311Tessa RautiolaHoughton122.4
410Abby TaylorNewberry111.6
512Alisha MabieEscanaba108.9
611Ella FureMarquette105.8
712Roman Trevino PeterlinHoughton104.5
88Molly McNamaraEngadine102.7
912Aubrey SmithIronwood101.9
109Sela NiskaHoughton101.1
1112Monet ArgeropoulosMarquette97.9
129Evelyn GrantMarquette95.7
1312Lily RossHoughton91.7
1412Ella KeranenHancock89.2
1512Chloe MillerMarquette88.0
1612Maija Maki-WarneMarquette87.8
1712Marlee PlaxcoNegaunee87.3
1810Winley BrandtMenominee87.0
1912Alyssa ShirkeyWakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer85.0
209Isabelle McCordSault Ste. Marie84.1
219Maria MurvichKingsford83.8
2210Regan SporteSault Ste. Marie81.6
239Alena PietilaHancock78.8
2411Faith CappaertStephenson78.1
2510Eryn VeverkaMarquette77.8
2612Rayna TowlesHancock74.5
2711Stephanie JonesSault Ste. Marie73.2
289Bree BesonenEwen-Trout Creek72.7
2911Maya CarlsonManistique71.3
3010Sylvia AhoChassell70.4

Homeschool & Other Teams

Homeschool, clubs, and teams not allowed to compete in MHSAA events. Perhaps that’s a little strong on wording, but I’m not sure why schools such as Kensington Woods, Christ the King, and Washtenaw Christian don’t compete at the MHSAA level. They’re clearly schools, they’ve been at it for awhile, and it’s not as if other charter-type or private schools can’t compete. Not stirring up controversy here, just curious on the reasoning!

Boys

RankTeamScoreTop 5 Avg.Last Week
1GRTC Peregrines36181.01
2Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports51177.12
3Capital Homeschool74172.83
4North Trails118158.04
5MACH155145.25
6Central Michigan Homeschool Athletics180135.57
7Butternut Homeschool209123.46
8Christ the King235116.58
9West Michigan Homeschool250104.89
10Washtenaw Christian30462.611
11Kensington Woods31760.612
12Monroe Milers32154.810

RankGradeNameTeamRating
112Luke LongWest Michigan Homeschool208.8
212Ezekiel GrimmetCapital Homeschool192.8
312Trent TaratutaNorth Trails190.5
411Caleb WillardGRTC Peregrines186.3
512Keith SiekBerrien County Youth Track185.7
69Abenezer OlsonKalamazoo Homeschool Sports183.6
711Brendan O’DonohueGRTC Peregrines181.9
812Kaelan MillerGRTC Peregrines181.8
910Anthony SchmitzGRTC Peregrines181.5
1011Vince GarritanoKalamazoo Homeschool Sports181.2
119Leo GarritanoKalamazoo Homeschool Sports175.0
129Eli MillerGRTC Peregrines173.6
1312Trevor BaschCapital Homeschool173.1
1410Brian ArtmanKalamazoo Homeschool Sports172.9
1510Evan ArmstrongKalamazoo Homeschool Sports172.7
1612Jack RyanCapital Homeschool172.3
1711Ian PottsMACH171.2
1811Benaiah RobyKalamazoo Homeschool Sports169.0
199Jackson WillardGRTC Peregrines166.4
2012David ArtmanKalamazoo Homeschool Sports166.2
2110Jacob ZiolkowskiGRTC Peregrines166.1
229Garrett PottsMACH165.8
2311Isaac McAlveyCapital Homeschool163.0
2412Edward FountainCapital Homeschool162.9
2511Carter GrimmetCapital Homeschool162.2
2610Peter KampCapital Homeschool162.2
2712Axel KrantzNorth Trails158.3
2812Sebastian HornibrookNorth Trails153.7
2910Thor KrantzNorth Trails153.2
309Etienne RubleCentral Michigan Homeschool Athletics150.6

Girls

RankTeamScoreTop 5 Avg.Last Week
1GRTC Peregrines21128.41
2Capital Homeschool7868.34
3MACH8462.03
4Christ the King12033.85
5North Trails147 6
6Monroe Milers1522.67
7West Michigan Homeschool178 NR
8Interlochen Arts Academy194 NR
9Detroit International Academy270 NR

RankGradeNameTeamRating
110Stephanie DiPiazzaGRTC Peregrines165.9
212Sinead NoonanGRTC Peregrines145.2
39Alannah WesselMACH129.7
412Maya WillardGRTC Peregrines118.6
59Kate O’DonohueGRTC Peregrines114.8
610Faith WesselMACH106.0
712Olivia GustNorth Trails104.5
811Samantha HundtCapital Homeschool97.7
912Melia CullenGRTC Peregrines97.3
1011Evie HakesGRTC Peregrines92.6
1111Dorothy WagenmakerGRTC Peregrines92.0
129Ingrid ThomasWashtenaw Christian88.8
1311Esther HornibrookNorth Trails84.7
149Micaela CabelloChrist the King84.5
1510Kimberly SiekBerrien County Youth Track83.3
1610Eleri RaleighCapital Homeschool71.8
1710Taylor BaschCapital Homeschool70.7
1812Rebekah GramMonroe Milers61.7
1910Rosie StelwagenWest Michigan Homeschool58.3
2011Hana NishiInterlochen Arts Academy56.5
2111Maizy MinnaarCapital Homeschool55.1
2212Amber WattaMACH50.9
2310Alexis GrahamChrist the King50.6
2410Juliana PrewettCentral Michigan Homeschool Athletics48.7
259Matti VanderweyCapital Homeschool46.1
2610Lauren CarothersChrist the King39.3
2712Kennedy ChildressMonroe Milers34.2
2811Lucy SpencerCapital Homeschool32.4
2912Ava PattersonCapital Homeschool31.6
3012Livia KueckenBlue Water Christian Academy25.4

Uncategorized

2024 Rankings: Division 1, Championship Season

Week 3

The above link contains the best explanation of the year.

Week 4
Mid-Season Projections – Boys
Mid-Season Projections – Girls

These rankings contain meets through Saturday (9/28). If a runner has had a rated race since September 1st, they’re included (sadly, I have to account for injured athletes). These are for fun and done for free. Enjoy!

Recap

It was a rough smooth two week stretch for Northville. The Mustangs handled business on their usual trip out of Michigan. Chicago in 2022, Roy Griak in 2023, then on September 21st, a trip to the famed Blue River XC Course. For Michigan’s top-ranked team facing the best of Indiana, 24 total points and all five scorers under 16:10.

Meanwhile on that same date, many of the top-10 boys showed up to Jackson. Following a few weeks off, rested and ready to roll, Livonia Churchill was able to put three in the 15’s and have just enough from Wojtkowicz and Morche, claiming victory in a field as close to the D1 Finals as you’ll see in September.

Looking Forward

Whereas in previous weeks, the top teams went their separate ways, in early October, they’re now all entering the fray. Clarkston looks to be the Oakland County favorite, Canton and Livonia Churchill will duel at Willow (projections for both coming tomorrow), and Portage has:

#1 Northville
#2 Brighton
#3 Jenison
#6 Saline
#8 Kalamazoo Central
#9 Grand Haven
#10 Traverse City Central

Amongst many others.

Top 27

RankTeamScoreRegionTop 5 Avg.Last Week
1Northville846204.61
2Brighton2544197.43
3Jenison2631198.52
4Canton3686195.94
5Livonia Churchill3916194.67
6Saline4125192.76
7Clarkston4298192.95
8Kalamazoo Central4563192.421
9Grand Haven4661193.78
10Traverse City Central5062191.011
11Ann Arbor Pioneer5415193.6NR
12Portage Central5503189.210
13East Kentwood5563190.89
14Oxford5598191.912
15Forest Hills Central6093189.917
16Plymouth6336188.913
17Utica6799188.318
18Macomb Dakota7229186.115
19Rockford7421185.014
20Midland7752185.116
21Okemos7912185.3NR
22Highland-Milford8067187.919
23White Lake Lakeland8117183.720
24Traverse City West8332184.523
25Caledonia8703183.424
26Salem8926182.122
27Dexter9734183.525

Recap

It’s been all red and pink. I thought that Holland West Ottawa’s performance at FlashRock was the best of their year, the pink Panthers were able to outdo that at Otsego. Both were wins, the former against Indiana’s best, the latter containing seven WO girls under 19.

Setting the standard for the past 1.5 seasons has been Romeo, performing in this two week stretch in the same manner that the Bulldogs always have. A perfect score in the MAC Red Championship, preceded by placing six in the top-20 at Sharp Park.

Looking Forward

They’ve been flexing muscles separately all year long. Under the Lights, Holly, FlashRock, Jackson, Otsego, now a meeting. Romeo and Holland West Ottawa. This is as close to a State Final preview as you’ll find. The main question in comparing the two teams is Romeo’s 3rd through 6th vs. West Ottawa’s 2nd through 6th.  The numbers thus far have shown that Romeo’s pack is slightly ahead of West Ottawa. The race isn’t run on numbers.

Yes, there are other teams in the state. With the addition of Ella Abraham, Rochester’s Falcons have asserted themselves as the favorite in Oakland County. Everyone else in the top-10 is Portage.

Top 27

RankTeamScoreRegionTop 5 Avg.Last Week
1Romeo829150.51
2Holland West Ottawa1331149.12
3Saline2355140.03
4Ann Arbor Pioneer2725143.45
5Brighton2904135.64
6Rockford3341133.76
7Okemos4132133.312
8Traverse City West4392129.27
9Rochester4748129.016
10Grand Haven4931128.08
11Portage Central5243125.010
12Midland Dow5302134.29
13Northville5386124.611
14Jenison5841122.715
15Utica5929123.113
16White Lake Lakeland6237121.414
17Dexter6344120.820
18Hartland6524120.917
19Ann Arbor Skyline6694120.219
20Rochester Adams6888119.818
21Macomb Dakota7799116.021
22Hudsonville7911115.622
23Clarkston8138114.524
24Bay City Western8532115.3NR
25Traverse City Central8802112.725
26Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills9153110.923
27Ann Arbor Huron9276112.3NR

Individual Rankings

Recap

Two weeks ago, we were heavily anticipating a Jackson Invite. Cooler early morning temps, Kyle O’Rourke traversing an easier, Aidan Pengelly assuring an honest pace. Neither of the two disappointed, neither did any of the field. Sharp Park was home to five of the six fastest D1 times in the State. O’Rourke pulled away in the second mile, creating enough of a gap to ensure a 15:08 victory. Carter Livermore has quietly been racking up outstanding races, he was 2nd. Pengelly crushed his previous PR.

The lone man that didn’t run at Jackson and was able to break into that top-six was Seth Conner, whose 15:16 at Otsego showed that he’s a few weeks ahead of last year’s schedule.

Thankfully, we received a debut. Kamari Ronfeldt on the way back, taking no time in finding a win in the second SEC Jamboree. The Pioneer course isn’t the easiest ever, he was still able to cruise to victory in 15:46.

Looking Forward

Three separate spots for matchups: Oakland County, Wayne County, and Portage.

Kyle O’Rourke going for his first Oakland crown, hoping to use course knowledge to earn a victory.

Just as the teams will vie for points in the pack, Joey Rohmfeld and Aidan Pengelly will face off near the front. Of course, they’ll be joined by a Colin Murray. We saw Murray come back on the two at Rambling Rock, we’ll see if the D1 kids will alter their approach to attain a win.

And of course – Portage. Seth Conner riding the high of last week, perhaps Kamari Ronfeldt in the purple, Carter Livermore, Ethan Powell, and a gang of others.

Top 30

RankGradeNameTeamRating
111Kyle O’RourkeHighland-Milford216.5
210Jack MacGregorHowell212.6
311Aiden PengellyCanton212.4
410Kamari RonfeldtAnn Arbor Pioneer211.4
512Carter LivermoreGrandville210.6
612Ethan PowellNorthville210.5
712Seth ConnerJenison210.3
812Alexander McArthurOxford207.8
912Joseph RohmfeldLivonia Churchill207.3
1012Taye LevensonBloomfield Hills207.3
1111Jackson LamKalamazoo Loy Norrix206.1
1211Ben HartiganNorthville206.0
1312Kian SchneeweisTroy205.6
1411Beckett CrooksAnn Arbor Pioneer205.0
1510Luka HammondGrand Haven205.0
1612Nick BarrettoNorthville204.0
1712Tyler BrockBrighton203.2
1812Julian LinebaughDexter203.0
1910Ben RomeroForest Hills Central202.7
2011Ryan BarnesClarkston202.5
2111Ian MorganOkemos201.8
2212Ishaan KundapurNorthville201.7
2312James CusickOxford201.5
2412Ben EisnorGrand Haven201.4
2512Lucas LaMilzaMacomb Dakota201.1
2612Sawyer McCarthyForest Hills Central200.9
2711Aron GalGrand Haven200.8
2810Brandon CloudNorthville200.7
2912Parker StreleckiJenison200.5
3012Evan NickolesEast Kentwood200.1

Recap

Winning wings were indeed spread, both in Indiana and Michigan. Sub-17’s at each, both contributions to a national top-10 ranking for Helen Sachs (it’s on MileSplit and you have to pay, such a racket. Just trust me).

Taking a careful approach and likely shooting for a November/December peak, Victoria Garces opened with a 17:17 at Cadillac, then followed with a 17:26 at Shepherd. Both were wins, both solidifying her status as one of Michigan’s top runners.

Always saving her best for the State Finals, Lucy Cook gave us a preview of her condition. Facing great competition from Natasza Dudek, Cook was able to summon just enough in Jackson’s finishing stretch to claim a win, 17:26.2 to 17:27.5.

Looking Forward

Going for four straight Oakland County crowns will be Lucy Cook. Finn, DaDamio, Belf, Goethals, Osika – none of those girls have won four County titles. Only one, Katie Boyles can make that claim. Lucy has always displayed patience while racing, a necessity to conquer the infamous double hill and emerge victorious. We’ll see if she can pull it off.

At Portage, Helen Sachs will be up to her usual shenanigans, laying waste to the field up front, hoping to set an example for her fellow Panthers looking to hit an upset. Freshmen that have already proved they can handle the sublime experience, Rachel Smith, McKinley Jones, and Natasza Dudek will gain even more of it on the star-studded Portage West MS grounds.

Top 30

RankGradeNameTeamRating
112Helen SachsHolland West Ottawa176.7
212Victoria GarcesMidland Dow170.5
39Natasza DudekAnn Arbor Pioneer167.2
49Rachel SmithOkemos162.3
511Natalia GuaresimoRomeo160.0
69Emilia GarcesMidland Dow159.0
711Hana BoggessAnn Arbor Pioneer154.9
89Sienna KlemmerAnn Arbor Pioneer154.5
99McKinley JonesSaline154.0
1012Lucy CookRochester153.6
1110Daisy CoxRockford152.9
1212Mallory BigelowOxford152.5
1311Lydia LaMarraBrighton152.1
1410Annie HrabovskyRomeo151.7
1512Valerie BeeckGrand Haven151.4
1612Kaelin HughesLivonia Stevenson150.5
1710Annabeth HazlewoodSalem149.9
1812Annie AlkemaKalamazoo Central148.9
199Savannah StatonSaline148.8
2012Lillian DeskinsRomeo148.2
2112Violet HrabovskyRomeo146.8
2212Olivia PurdyRomeo145.8
2310Collette WierksHolland West Ottawa144.9
2411Leah CorbyRochester Hills Stoney Creek144.9
2512Emma GunnettHolland West Ottawa144.8
2611Ava PorrasHolland West Ottawa144.7
2711Emmerson ClorRomeo144.5
2810Tessa MascariTraverse City West144.4
2912Isabelle BeckerBay City Western143.5
3012Corynn GadySaline142.7