Uncategorized – Page 86 – Michigan XC Speed Ratings

Started early with the simulations! Maybe I’ll pen another explanation this year, maybe I’ll just continually quote last year’s regional posts. I’m gonna do the latter for now and pray that some free time arises in the next few weeks.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time Tanner Rating Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev.
15:30 210
15:45 205
16:00 200
16:15 195
16:30 190 200 7.91
MIXCSR Time MIXCSR Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev.
16:09 197
16:12 196
16:15 195
16:18 194
16:21 193 195 1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race Tanner Avg. Tanner StDev Tanner Rating MIXCSR Avg. MIXCSR StDev MIXCSR Rating
1 200 7.9 202.1 195 1.6 195.6
2 200 7.9 196.2 195 1.6 194.1
3 200 7.9 190.0 195 1.6 199.2
4 200 7.9 193.4 195 1.6 192.5
5 200 7.9 206.8 195 1.6 195.7
6 200 7.9 201.8 195 1.6 196.1
7 200 7.9 171.6 195 1.6 194.9
8 200 7.9 189.2 195 1.6 195.9
9 200 7.9 205.5 195 1.6 197.0
10 200 7.9 203.8 195 1.6 192.6
11 200 7.9 192.3 195 1.6 196.5
12 200 7.9 196.9 195 1.6 196.4
13 200 7.9 198.5 195 1.6 195.6
14 200 7.9 203.2 195 1.6 194.1
15 200 7.9 193.9 195 1.6 192.6
16 200 7.9 199.3 195 1.6 193.2
17 200 7.9 208.7 195 1.6 194.2
18 200 7.9 213.7 195 1.6 194.6
19 200 7.9 212.6 195 1.6 197.1
20 200 7.9 206.3 195 1.6 193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

Since this is an election year and if you’re anything like me, following Nate Silver/538/Nate Cohn religiously, you’ll find that election models and speed ratings are very similar! For instance, here’s 538’s national polling average, which would equate to a runner’s average speed rating. Election models weigh polls based on their sample size, margin of error, past biases, and recency. I weigh races based on recency, sample size, and their competitiveness. Election models spit out a forecast, which runs simulations based on the polls, their weights, and other factors. These are essentially a forecast as well, simulations based on weighted average and variability. People get incensed at these statisticians on Twitter and I’m sure kids grumble about me at XC practice. 🙂

I know many of these meets have trophies that are split into divisions, but they’re all run as one single race. It’s a pain to separate, filter, and score those divisions and I’m just getting used to running simulations after 11 months away. So for now, these are scored as they’re run – one race.

OAKLAND COUNTY

Boys

Place	Team	Score
1	Clarkston	87
2	Oxford	118
3	Highland-Milford	149
4	Troy	206
5	Lake Orion	210
6	Rochester	220
7	Detroit Catholic Central	223
8	Novi	263
9	Walled Lake Northern	273
10	Troy Athens	322
11	Holly	337
12	Royal Oak	382
13	Royal Oak Shrine	411
14	Detroit Country Day	412
15	Rochester Adams	427
16	South Lyon	441
17	South Lyon East	524
18	Farmington	544
19	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	557
20	Bloomfield Hills	559
21	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	585
22	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	612
23	West Bloomfield	640
24	Beverly Hills Groves	641
25	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	649
26	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	749
27	Birmingham Seaholm	769
28	Berkley	785
29	Brother Rice	799
30	North Farmington	843
31	Waterford Kettering	907
32	Madison Heights Lamphere	935
33	Walled Lake Western	952
34	Novi Christian Academy	1013
35	Walled Lake Central	1044
36	Clawson	1051
37	Waterford Mott	1090
38	Oak Park	1119
39	Auburn Hills Avondale	1205

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford
2	12	Alexander McArthur	Oxford
3	12	Taye Levenson	Bloomfield Hills
4	11	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine
5	12	Kian Schneeweis	Troy
6	11	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston
7	12	James Cusick	Oxford
8	12	Cayden DeGrendel	Clarkston
9	12	Drew Abbott	Detroit Catholic Central
10	11	Max Houvener	Lake Orion
11	11	Nate Linden	Troy Athens
12	11	Dylan Pascoe	Rochester
13	12	Collin McLaughlin	Rochester
14	12	Maxton Myrand	Oxford
15	11	David Dubeck	Clarkston
16	11	Evan Owczarek	Rochester
17	9	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
18	11	Bastien Beaubien	Highland-Milford
19	12	Raymond Lucero II	Lake Orion
20	10	Musa Kay	West Bloomfield
21	12	Nolan Till	Royal Oak
22	12	Myles Linden	Troy Athens
23	12	Chase Griffith	Walled Lake Northern
24	10	Broden Ladd	Holly
25	10	Trevor Baptist	Novi
26	12	Joshua Ellingsworth	Clarkston
27	12	Blake Peardon	Lake Orion
28	12	Isaak Brook	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
29	9	Todd Tobin	Highland-Milford
30	12	Benjamin Peura	Farmington
31	12	Jaxson Nowik	Clarkston
32	12	Jacob Hopkins	Detroit Country Day
33	11	Finn Gammerath	Walled Lake Northern
34	10	Briggs Warren	Novi
35	11	Gavin Tisch	Detroit Catholic Central
36	12	Aiden Baugh	Waterford Kettering
37	11	Cole Wisniewski	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
38	11	Cayden Canham	Oxford
39	9	Cooper McNaughton	Clarkston
40	10	Trevor Murphy	Holly
41	12	Thomas Watson	Detroit Catholic Central
42	11	Soma Sato	Novi
43	11	Aiden LaVictor	Beverly Hills Groves
44	10	Nathan Bruss	Walled Lake Northern
45	11	Alex Hamilton	North Farmington
46	10	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day
47	12	Kent Wilson	Clarkston
48	11	Nolan Collins	Brother Rice
49	11	Isaac German	Novi
50	11	Isaac Clark	Troy

Girls

Place	Team	Score
1	Rochester	99
2	Rochester Adams	146
3	Clarkston	173
4	Farmington	228
5	Royal Oak	238
6	Oxford	242
7	Novi	248
8	Troy	259
9	Walled Lake Northern	276
10	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep	327
11	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	388
12	Birmingham Seaholm	389
13	Lake Orion	394
14	Walled Lake Central	411
15	Bloomfield Hills	415
16	Highland-Milford	428
17	Berkley	431
18	Detroit Country Day	447
19	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	486
20	South Lyon East	559
21	Farmington Hills Mercy	578
22	Holly	609
23	Troy Athens	614
24	Bloomfield Hills Marian	624
25	Royal Oak Shrine	624
26	South Lyon	684
27	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s	696
28	Beverly Hills Groves	735
29	Oak Park	748
30	North Farmington	807
31	Madison Heights Lamphere	969
32	West Bloomfield	997
33	Wixom St. Catherine	998
34	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	1020
35	Walled Lake Western	1042
36	Waterford Kettering	1093
37	Novi Christian Academy	1115
38	Southfield Christian	1178
39	Academy of the Sacred Heart	1187
40	Waterford Mott	1226

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Lucy Cook	Rochester
2	12	Mallory Bigelow	Oxford
3	11	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
4	12	Mea D’Agostino	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
5	10	Katelynn Egli	Novi
6	10	El McMahan	Rochester Adams
7	12	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian
8	9	Paige Rohda	Berkley
9	12	Catherine Steele	Farmington
10	11	Ella Abraham	Rochester
11	12	Taylor Brodeur	Oxford
12	11	Audrey Hamilton	Troy
13	9	Ava Thomas	Rochester Adams
14	10	Addison Brigham	Clarkston
15	11	Addison Herr	Bloomfield Hills
16	12	Kaitlyn Kauppila	Rochester Adams
17	12	Maria Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
18	11	Taylor Parsons	Rochester
19	9	Eliana Fredrick	Walled Lake Northern
20	11	Cecilia Kreiter	Rochester Adams
21	10	Emily Alt	Walled Lake Northern
22	10	Jillian Broyles	Highland-Milford
23	10	Avery DeGrendel	Clarkston
24	9	Charlotte Jones	Rochester
25	12	Madie Miller	Troy
26	10	Kendal Russette	Clarkston
27	10	Allie Gallagher	Walled Lake Northern
28	11	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy
29	10	Linda Lopez	Lake Orion
30	12	Cora Liu	North Farmington
31	9	Alexa Siegel	Walled Lake Central
32	10	Claire Porinsky	South Lyon East
33	12	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper
34	10	Anna Macdonald	Royal Oak
35	12	Molly Baracco	Farmington
36	11	Kierra Magner	Farmington
37	12	Stephanie Bulat	Rochester
38	12	Skylar Vanhecke	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
39	11	Mya Tass	Novi
40	12	Nell Stover	Detroit Country Day
41	10	Olivia Jenney	Bloomfield Hills
42	9	Olivia Peterson	Royal Oak
43	9	Alexa Siegal	Walled Lake Central
44	10	Jane Meinecke	Royal Oak
45	10	Paige Haller	Walled Lake Central
46	10	Paityn Sweet	Clarkston
47	12	Mia Snellgrove	Rochester
48	11	Kayla Ward	South Lyon
49	11	Annabelle Ellenbogen	Detroit Country Day
50	10	Maddie Lindley	Holly

GREATER FLINT

Boys

Place	Team	Score
1	Frankenmuth	82
2	Flint Powers Catholic	93
3	Davison	129
4	Corunna	158
5	Hartland	191
6	Grand Blanc	204
7	Fenton	210
8	Flint Kearsley	224
9	Goodrich	253
10	Flushing	254
11	Lapeer	294
12	Lake Fenton	360
13	Otisville LakeVille	399
14	Swartz Creek	400
15	Owosso	403
16	Dryden	411
17	Ovid-Elsie	461
18	Almont	491
19	Ortonville Brandon	513
20	Linden	518
21	Montrose	570
22	New Lothrop	570
23	Chesaning	594
24	Genesee Christian Academy	690
25	Burton-Bendle	753
26	Genesee	828
27	Mt Morris	864

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic
2	9	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic
3	11	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich
4	12	James Latstetter	Flushing
5	12	Jack Lillywhite	Flint Kearsley
6	12	Simon Erfourth	Owosso
7	9	Gavin Katic	Fenton
8	12	Jacob Essenmacher	Lapeer
9	10	Nicklas Parker	Frankenmuth
10	11	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille
11	11	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth
12	12	Ethan Sellers	Flint Kearsley
13	12	Bobby Donley	Corunna
14	11	Anthony Plana	Frankenmuth
15	12	Luke Meyer	Davison
16	12	Cougar Clark	Frankenmuth
17	11	Braden Shiposh	Hartland
18	11	Noah Linstrom	Davison
19	10	Ezra Nellis	Corunna
20	10	Levi Mayer	Davison
21	11	Payton Chandler	Corunna
22	11	Cole Pergram	Frankenmuth
23	12	Maxwell Merrill	Grand Blanc
24	11	Cole Fernandez	Flint Kearsley
25	11	Thomas Beiter	Flint Powers Catholic
26	12	Tanner Smith	Davison
27	11	Jonny Striler	Swartz Creek
28	9	Gerard Gilmour	Fenton
29	12	Cole Winter	Goodrich
30	10	Ben Bouchey	Flint Powers Catholic
31	11	Griffin Good	Flushing
32	11	Charlie Smith	Grand Blanc
33	12	Jaxon Strauch	Corunna
34	9	Wyatt Roberts	Otisville LakeVille
35	11	Brodie Licata	Lake Fenton
36	9	Ryan Rathsburg	Flint Powers Catholic
37	11	Caleb Carignan	Flint Powers Catholic
38	9	Gerard Gilmore	Fenton
39	10	Connor O’Reilly	Davison
40	12	Jaylen Wildman	Flushing
41	11	William Dean	Grand Blanc
42	12	Clay Powell	Ovid-Elsie
43	10	Ethan Hawkins	Hartland
44	12	Jack Costa	Hartland
45	11	Maximillian Bladzik	Grand Blanc
46	11	Wyatt Shaw	Hartland
47	10	Cooper Steckroth	Lake Fenton
48	10	Hayden Preister	Hartland
49	10	Lucas Keilen	Hartland
50	11	Cohen Paril	Lapeer

Girls

Place	Team	Score
1	Goodrich	42
2	Hartland	77
3	Linden	121
4	Frankenmuth	137
5	Davison	160
6	Grand Blanc	179
7	Owosso	185
8	Flint Powers Catholic	236
9	Lapeer	253
10	Lake Fenton	306
11	Corunna	332
12	Flint Kearsley	368
13	Fenton	377
14	Flushing	404
15	Almont	414
16	Genesee Christian Academy	439
17	Dryden	444
18	Ovid-Elsie	447
19	Chesaning	460
20	New Lothrop	516
21	Ortonville Brandon	521
22	Swartz Creek	534
23	Montrose	687
24	Mt Morris	788

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth
2	10	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich
3	12	Grace Evanoff	Flint Powers Catholic
4	12	Grace Tykocki	Grand Blanc
5	10	Ava Goodman	Hartland
6	12	Kamryn Lauinger	Goodrich
7	9	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich
8	12	Layla Jordan	Goodrich
9	10	Addison Josephson	Linden
10	11	Sophia Nunnery	Hartland
11	11	Elliana Neuer	Hartland
12	11	Nevaeh Polovina	Davison
13	11	Samantha Brown	Clio
14	10	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth
15	10	Claire Brown	Goodrich
16	12	Avery Byrne	Goodrich
17	10	Melody Meckstroth	Linden
18	10	Baylor Lauinger	Goodrich
19	12	Chloe Josephson	Linden
20	10	Brooklyn Wiltse	Davison
21	9	Hannah DePestel	Hartland
22	11	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth
23	12	Josie Jenkinson	Owosso
24	12	Grace Murphy	Flint Powers Catholic
25	12	Julionna West	Owosso
26	10	Sidney Shepard	Linden
27	12	Olivia Gartrell	Davison
28	12	Zoe Howard	Hartland
29	12	Hayven Thiel	Corunna
30	11	Lilah Weber	Lapeer
31	10	Elliana Hufton	Lake Fenton
32	11	Ivy Forrest	Davison
33	12	Natalie Summerland	Owosso
34	12	Brooke Sonnenberg	Genesee Christian Academy
35	11	Cara Prusakiewicz	Dryden
36	10	Jaidyn Nickels	Corunna
37	9	Mila Villarreal	Flint Powers Catholic
38	12	Camden Essenmacher	Hartland
39	9	Leah Humphrey	Grand Blanc
40	9	Abby Crandell	Owosso
41	9	Ana Lovell	Lake Fenton
42	10	Olivia Linski	Hartland
43	11	Nadia Cordes	Lapeer
44	10	Molly Gaudard	Flint Kearsley
45	9	Livia Willing	Grand Blanc
46	10	Paige Willman	Lake Fenton
47	9	Molly Roberts	Linden
48	9	Averie Schons	Lapeer
49	10	Micali Teeple	Grand Blanc
50	12	Taryn Craven	Fenton

WAYNE COUNTY

Boys

Place	Team	Score
1	Canton	56
2	Livonia Churchill	58
3	Plymouth	90
4	Salem	115
5	New Boston Huron	178
6	Flat Rock	210
7	Dearborn Divine Child	289
8	Livonia Stevenson	307
9	Grosse Pointe North	307
10	Detroit U-D Jesuit	351
11	Dearborn	354
12	Allen Park	368
13	Redford Union	368
14	Detroit Renaissance	447
15	Lutheran Westland	463
16	Riverview Gabriel Richard	463
17	Wyandotte Roosevelt	486
18	Livonia Franklin	533
19	Wayne Memorial	575
20	Plymouth Christian Academy	597
21	Dearborn Fordson	598
22	Westland John Glenn	630
23	Allen Park Cabrini	638
24	Riverview	692
25	Belleville	696
26	Southgate Anderson	705
27	Trenton	732
28	Lincoln Park	779
29	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	805
30	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	878
31	Garden City	880
32	Melvindale	887
33	Detroit East English	910

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Aiden Pengelly	Canton
2	12	Colin Murray	Dearborn Divine Child
3	12	Joseph Rohmfeld	Livonia Churchill
4	12	Chase Wolters	Livonia Churchill
5	12	Lucas Kuhn	New Boston Huron
6	12	Malcolm Speigle	Livonia Churchill
7	11	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock
8	11	Lucas LaPointe	Plymouth
9	12	Jack Chadwick	Plymouth
10	12	Clark Madden	Canton
11	11	Steven Dusseau	Canton
12	11	Luke Dulecki	New Boston Huron
13	10	Jack Hanner	Salem
14	12	Ben Clark	Canton
15	12	Ben Mussen	Plymouth
16	9	Mourad Algahmi	Dearborn Fordson
17	12	Nathan Vargo	Flat Rock
18	11	Hudson Wojtkowicz	Livonia Churchill
19	12	Cole Triffle	Canton
20	11	Adrian Clarke	Plymouth
21	10	Jacob Ferdubinski	Riverview Gabriel Richard
22	12	Isaac Demetter	Salem
23	12	Ethan Morche	Livonia Churchill
24	10	Austin Mercado	Salem
25	11	Lucas Taraszkiewicz	Flat Rock
26	12	Aaron Messing	Livonia Stevenson
27	12	Adam Dicken	Canton
28	12	Teo Condevaux	Livonia Churchill
29	11	Parker Szymczak	Salem
30	11	John Niemenski	Salem
31	12	Max Martin	Salem
32	11	Jaden Ding	Salem
33	12	Caleb Kosel	Grosse Pointe North
34	10	Tyler Bjorklund	Livonia Churchill
35	11	Daniel Niehaus	Plymouth
36	11	Tobin Collins	Canton
37	11	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy
38	10	Noah Amori	Wyandotte Roosevelt
39	11	Jason Anderson	Dearborn
40	12	Kyle Biller	New Boston Huron
41	11	Jackson Raby	Allen Park
42	10	Justin Mkrtumian	Detroit U-D Jesuit
43	9	Simon Reed	Plymouth Christian Academy
44	10	Cameron Crane	New Boston Huron
45	11	Max Brannan	Lutheran Westland
46	12	Diego Islas-Montantes	Plymouth
47	10	William Balasia	Detroit U-D Jesuit
48	11	Marcel Lake	Detroit Renaissance
49	11	Tommy Buckalew	Westland John Glenn
50	9	Landen Martell	Plymouth

Girls

Place	Team	Score
1	Salem	85
2	Dearborn Divine Child	118
3	Livonia Franklin	125
4	Livonia Churchill	146
5	Plymouth	178
6	Canton	180
7	Livonia Stevenson	217
8	New Boston Huron	225
9	Trenton	250
10	Wyandotte Roosevelt	288
11	Grosse Pointe North	290
12	Dearborn	331
13	Plymouth Christian Academy	386
14	Dearborn Heights Crestwood	404
15	Allen Park	428
16	Belleville	451
17	Allen Park Cabrini	464
18	Southgate Anderson	464
19	Lutheran Westland	470
20	Garden City	550
21	Detroit Renaissance	560
22	Dearborn Fordson	583
23	Wayne Memorial	619
24	Detroit University Prep	665
25	Westland John Glenn	736
26	Dearborn Henry Ford Academy	744
27	Detroit International Academy	862

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	10	Annabeth Hazlewood	Salem
2	12	Kaelin Hughes	Livonia Stevenson
3	12	Ava Peters	Livonia Franklin
4	11	Mackenzie Dicken	Plymouth
5	11	Rianna Radulescu	Livonia Churchill
6	11	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron
7	11	Becca Jud	Salem
8	11	Eleanor Grant	Wyandotte Roosevelt
9	11	Eleanor Cole	Lutheran Westland
10	10	Julie Schuessler	Livonia Churchill
11	12	Marisa Chuey	Trenton
12	12	Kathryn Kurtinaitis	Dearborn Divine Child
13	10	Samantha Bartell	Salem
14	12	Rosa Brody	Canton
15	12	Ilett Martinez	Wayne Memorial
16	12	Brooklyn Hannah	Livonia Franklin
17	12	Megan Woelkers	Flat Rock
18	11	Falyn Doss	New Boston Huron
19	11	Kinsey Nordbeck	Livonia Franklin
20	12	Tess Scicluna	Dearborn Divine Child
21	12	Kayla Slade	Dearborn Divine Child
22	11	Rachael Halkey	Livonia Churchill
23	11	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy
24	11	Margo Kaledas	Salem
25	11	Anna Kujansuu	Dearborn Divine Child
26	10	Kayla Christesen	New Boston Huron
27	11	Caroline LaPointe	Plymouth
28	9	Lucy Morrow	Livonia Franklin
29	9	Jamie Glatfelter	Trenton
30	10	Adrianna Zub	Allen Park
31	9	Deirdre O’Connell	Allen Park Cabrini
32	10	Leah Grezak	Livonia Stevenson
33	9	Joy Schuck	Southgate Anderson
34	12	Ashlei Anatalio	Grosse Pointe North
35	11	Natalie Workman	Livonia Churchill
36	11	Mia Fernandez	Canton
37	11	Sarah Wazne	Dearborn Heights Crestwood
38	12	Alaa Selman	Dearborn Heights Crestwood
39	11	Elizabeth Salinas	Dearborn Divine Child
40	11	Simona Horia	Dearborn
41	10	Addie Jones	Salem
42	9	Chloe Cratsenburg	Plymouth
43	10	Liv Brody	Canton
44	12	Yana Chamiso	Canton
45	12	Mercedes Dziendziel	Wyandotte Roosevelt
46	12	Devyn Dorey	Trenton
47	12	Katie Madigan	Grosse Pointe North
48	12	Isabel Farley-Gillay	Plymouth
49	12	Jillian Wygonik	Dearborn Divine Child
50	9	Joelle Saad	Dearborn

CALHOUN COUNTY

Boys

Place	Team	Score
1	Marshall	23
2	Battle Creek Harper Creek	37
3	Lake Odessa Lakewood	80
4	Colon	110

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Jack Bidwell	Marshall
2	12	Dominic Lowrie	Battle Creek Harper Creek
3	10	Abraham McHugh	Marshall
4	12	Reece Davis	Marshall
5	11	Cooper Gardner	Battle Creek Harper Creek
6	10	Christian Ayres	Battle Creek Harper Creek
7	11	Clark Erwin	Marshall
8	11	Ty Winchell	Marshall
9	11	Cameron Weers	Marshall
10	12	Riley Johnson	Lake Odessa Lakewood
11	12	Jordan Lindauer	Battle Creek Harper Creek
12	11	Chase Weers	Marshall
13	10	Max Barron	Tekonsha
14	10	Bryce Goodemoot	Lake Odessa Lakewood
15	12	Owen Hunter	Battle Creek Harper Creek

Girls

Place	Team	Score
1	Marshall	33
2	Battle Creek Harper Creek	37
3	Battle Creek Pennfield	74
4	Lake Odessa Lakewood	96

Place	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Julia Faber	Battle Creek Harper Creek
2	11	Leah McPartlin	Marshall
3	9	Rylee Zumer	Battle Creek Harper Creek
4	9	Alaina Dillon	Marshall
5	11	Peyton Rhoades	Battle Creek Pennfield
6	12	Savannah Richmond	Marshall
7	10	Layla Silkworth	Battle Creek Harper Creek
8	9	Raelin Schrock	Lake Odessa Lakewood
9	11	Adriana Domingo	Marshall
10	9	Ellie Bowen	Battle Creek Pennfield
11	11	Maura Young	Marshall
12	11	Alaina Hoffman	Marshall
13	11	Ellie Feneley	Battle Creek Harper Creek
14	11	Everlyn VanValkenburg	Battle Creek Harper Creek
15	10	Elizabeth Antes	Battle Creek Harper Creek

Uncategorized

2024 Rankings: UP, Homeschool, & Others – Championship Season

October 4, 2024 mixcspeedratings

Week 3

The above link contains the best explanation of the year.

Week 4

These rankings contain meets through Saturday (9/28). If a runner has had a rated race since September 1st, they’re included (sadly, I have to account for injured athletes). These are for fun and done for free. Enjoy!

Recap

Seeming like it’s all Marquette that I write about, but when you finish 4^th at Griak and win Bluejay, it’s all deserved. Vibes and numbers-based, I think they’re the 2^nd best team in Michigan right now. In any normal, non-Northville year, the best.

A new arrival to the top-10 is Ironwood, winners in the Baraga Invite. The Red Devils were able to place three seniors under 19. Leading the way has been Zach Smith, hitting the 17’s on each of his last two efforts, hoping to improve on his 9^th place D2 finish from 2023.

Looking Forward

Painesdale-Jeffers hoping to secure a Copper Mountain title. The Jets overwhelmed their foes at Ewen-Trout Creek, all varsity runners in the top-11, the kinda form that wins Division 2 titles.

Eastern UP battles between Rudyard and Engadine. Engadine claimed the first one at EUP #1, adjusting to the 4600m distance (due to logging – UP problems), 35-49 over Rudyard. You’ve got another EUP duel and the Rudyard Autumn Classic quick on the horizon.

All the Full Teams

Rank	Team	Score	Division	Top 5 Avg.	Last Week
1	Marquette	20	UP 1	198.8	1
2	Sault Ste. Marie	59	UP 1	178.1	2
3	Houghton	139	UP 1	152.2	3
4	Painesdale-Jeffers	152	UP 2	148.4	4
5	Gladstone	171	UP 1	140.0	5
6	Munising	229	UP 2	139.2	6
7	Rudyard	260	UP 2	127.9	7
8	Engadine	316	UP 3	117.7	8
9	Dollar Bay	355	UP 3	109.9	9
10	Ironwood	357	UP 2	112.3	12
11	Ishpeming Westwood	367	UP 1	110.1	10
12	Stephenson	367	UP 3	108.7	11
13	Menominee	393	UP 1	104.1	14
14	Gwinn	397	UP 2	95.1	13
15	Negaunee	407	UP 1	102.7	15
16	Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer	412	UP 2	101.4	16
17	Calumet	444	UP 1	66.7	17
18	Escanaba	460	UP 1	90.9	18
19	Manistique	488	UP 2	87.2	19
20	Eben Jct. Superior Central	533	UP 3	81.0	20
21	Newberry	580	UP 3	67.5	21
22	Hancock	593	UP 2	64.3	22
23	Kingsford	601	UP 1	52.1	23
24	Rock Mid-Peninsula	629	UP 3	49.2	NR
25	Powers North Central	635	UP 1	-15.8	24
26	Forest Area	677	UP 3	48.2	NR
27	Carney-Nadeau	757	UP 3	-41.5	25

Recap

Interesting week. At El Harger, Houghton rollllled over Marquette, 26-78. Four in the top seven, pure numbers up front on the way to a substantial victory. Then at Shepherd, the Sentinels’ 3^rd-5^th girls ran a solid two minutes faster, helping the team place 22^nd of 33 in the elite division. Perhaps they tempo’ed at Munising? Anyhow, both performances were indicative of teams capable of winning Division 1.

The largest move came from Chassell, their girls shifting from 14^th to 10^th. As the weather has turned, so too has Sylvia Aho, racing to two consecutive 21-min. efforts, a good 1-2 minute improvement from her freshman era.

Looking Forward

The big one seems to be the Houghton Invite, which will contain Houghton, Hancock, and Negaunee. Hancock and Negaunee seem to be running similarly, Hancock coming ahead at Mid-Peninsula Conference, Negaunee at Tracy Strom. The Bulldogs are appearing to be a shoe-in for the D2 crown, Negaunee is an underdog for a top-3 spot in D1, but still in contention.

All the Full Teams

Rank	Team	Score	Division	Top 5 Avg.	Last Week
1	Marquette	56	UP 1	95.0	2
2	Houghton	66	UP 1	95.4	1
3	Hancock	153	UP 2	64.9	3
4	Sault Ste. Marie	176	UP 1	58.3	4
5	Ewen-Trout Creek	219	UP 3	45.5	5
6	Negaunee	239	UP 1	44.4	6
7	Gladstone	289	UP 1	26.5	9
8	Newberry	327	UP 3	34.6	8
9	Munising	327	UP 2	21.4	7
10	Chassell	331	UP 3	19.8	14
11	Calumet	335	UP 1	19.7	10
12	Kingsford	355	UP 1	16.1	18
13	Pickford	355	UP 3	23.0	12
14	Baraga	360	UP 2	12.9	11
15	Escanaba	387	UP 1	8.7	15
16	Brimley	398	UP 3	2.5	13
17	Ironwood	399	UP 2	8.8	17
18	Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer	401	UP 2	6.1	16
19	Stephenson	453	UP 3		20
20	St. Ignace	502	UP 3		21
21	Ishpeming Westwood	505	UP 1		19
22	Powers North Central	556	UP 1		24
23	Manistique	566	UP 2		22
24	Rudyard	577	UP 2		23
25	Rapid River	586	UP 3		25
26	West Iron County	613	UP 2		26
27	Holy Name	706	UP 3		NR
28	Eben Jct. Superior Central	722	UP 3		27

Individual Rankings

Recap

Armelagos to Argeropoulos, I’ve gotta give a shout to my fellow Greek, Peter Argeropoulos. His 16:01 at Shepherd was by far the best performance of his life. Coming into Saturday’s race at Bluejay, his previous best was 16:33. Huge performance to lead his Marquette brethren to victory.

Perhaps the biggest mover was Painesdale-Jeffers’ Landon Larson. He’s recaptured his freshman and sophomore form, the kinda form that finished 2^nd in 2022 and won in 2023. Running much of the season in the 18’s, he unleashed a 17:11 to win at Ewen-Trout Creek.

Looking Forward

Finally. FINALLY. Luck has had it that when Gabe Litzner traveled downstate, he’s competed in sections without much elite competition. That changes Saturday in the D1 race at Portage.

Top 30

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Gabe Litzner	Sault Ste. Marie	212.2
2	12	Seppi Camilli	Marquette	210.3
3	11	Rorik Holmquist	Marquette	197.9
4	12	James Barch	Marquette	195.8
5	11	Peter Argeropoulos	Marquette	195.5
6	12	Evan Balko	Marquette	194.6
7	12	Chase Thomsen	Marquette	193.0
8	11	Shea Armstrong	Sault Ste. Marie	192.4
9	12	Danny Goss	Munising	189.8
10	12	Kalvin Kytta	Chassell	189.7
11	10	Lucas Ballard	Marquette	183.2
12	12	Birk Seagren	Houghton	180.6
13	11	Landon Larson	Painesdale-Jeffers	170.6
14	11	Cameron Anderson	Painesdale-Jeffers	168.6
15	12	Evan Huyck	Sault Ste. Marie	165.5
16	12	Trevor Nolan	Munising	164.3
17	12	Eli Hills	Sault Ste. Marie	164.1
18	11	Steven Kirschner	Rudyard	163.2
19	11	Benjamin Hemmer	Houghton	162.0
20	12	Zach Smith	Ironwood	161.7
21	11	Daniel Bowerman	Sault Ste. Marie	156.3
22	12	Dakota Taylor	Engadine	153.9
23	11	Canon Kuntze	Stephenson	153.9
24	11	Adam Brandt	Sault Ste. Marie	153.1
25	10	Andrew Junttila	Calumet	151.2
26	9	Brandon Van Karsen	Houghton	149.9
27	10	Chase Aldridge	Sault Ste. Marie	149.4
28	11	Max Beauchamp	Gladstone	147.2
29	12	Brayden Bourion	Menominee	147.0
30	12	Weston Knauf	Powers North Central	144.4

Recap

Took awhile, but now Talya Schreiber is contained within the rankings. Her early meets were either too small or mud runs. The waiting was worth it, she’s surely continued her winning form from 2023. In Upper Peninsula action, she’s won 11 consecutive races. Her main competition has been right in the area, Samantha Taylor finishing 12 sec. back at the first EUP Jamboree.

Looking Forward

Pickford’s goin’ to Portage as well. The Panthers are placed in D3, a great spot that Schreiber won’t be overwhelmed and can compete near the front. Currently, I’d have her around 15^th-20^th in D3. But take in the caveat that she GREATLY outperformed the ratings at MITCA last year.

Top 30

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Talya Schreiber	Pickford	132.2
2	11	Samantha Taylor	Newberry	131.7
3	11	Tessa Rautiola	Houghton	122.4
4	10	Abby Taylor	Newberry	111.6
5	12	Alisha Mabie	Escanaba	108.9
6	11	Ella Fure	Marquette	105.8
7	12	Roman Trevino Peterlin	Houghton	104.5
8	8	Molly McNamara	Engadine	102.7
9	12	Aubrey Smith	Ironwood	101.9
10	9	Sela Niska	Houghton	101.1
11	12	Monet Argeropoulos	Marquette	97.9
12	9	Evelyn Grant	Marquette	95.7
13	12	Lily Ross	Houghton	91.7
14	12	Ella Keranen	Hancock	89.2
15	12	Chloe Miller	Marquette	88.0
16	12	Maija Maki-Warne	Marquette	87.8
17	12	Marlee Plaxco	Negaunee	87.3
18	10	Winley Brandt	Menominee	87.0
19	12	Alyssa Shirkey	Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer	85.0
20	9	Isabelle McCord	Sault Ste. Marie	84.1
21	9	Maria Murvich	Kingsford	83.8
22	10	Regan Sporte	Sault Ste. Marie	81.6
23	9	Alena Pietila	Hancock	78.8
24	11	Faith Cappaert	Stephenson	78.1
25	10	Eryn Veverka	Marquette	77.8
26	12	Rayna Towles	Hancock	74.5
27	11	Stephanie Jones	Sault Ste. Marie	73.2
28	9	Bree Besonen	Ewen-Trout Creek	72.7
29	11	Maya Carlson	Manistique	71.3
30	10	Sylvia Aho	Chassell	70.4

Homeschool & Other Teams

Homeschool, clubs, and teams not allowed to compete in MHSAA events. Perhaps that’s a little strong on wording, but I’m not sure why schools such as Kensington Woods, Christ the King, and Washtenaw Christian don’t compete at the MHSAA level. They’re clearly schools, they’ve been at it for awhile, and it’s not as if other charter-type or private schools can’t compete. Not stirring up controversy here, just curious on the reasoning!

Boys

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Last Week
1	GRTC Peregrines	36	181.0	1
2	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	51	177.1	2
3	Capital Homeschool	74	172.8	3
4	North Trails	118	158.0	4
5	MACH	155	145.2	5
6	Central Michigan Homeschool Athletics	180	135.5	7
7	Butternut Homeschool	209	123.4	6
8	Christ the King	235	116.5	8
9	West Michigan Homeschool	250	104.8	9
10	Washtenaw Christian	304	62.6	11
11	Kensington Woods	317	60.6	12
12	Monroe Milers	321	54.8	10

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Luke Long	West Michigan Homeschool	208.8
2	12	Ezekiel Grimmet	Capital Homeschool	192.8
3	12	Trent Taratuta	North Trails	190.5
4	11	Caleb Willard	GRTC Peregrines	186.3
5	12	Keith Siek	Berrien County Youth Track	185.7
6	9	Abenezer Olson	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	183.6
7	11	Brendan O’Donohue	GRTC Peregrines	181.9
8	12	Kaelan Miller	GRTC Peregrines	181.8
9	10	Anthony Schmitz	GRTC Peregrines	181.5
10	11	Vince Garritano	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	181.2
11	9	Leo Garritano	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	175.0
12	9	Eli Miller	GRTC Peregrines	173.6
13	12	Trevor Basch	Capital Homeschool	173.1
14	10	Brian Artman	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	172.9
15	10	Evan Armstrong	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	172.7
16	12	Jack Ryan	Capital Homeschool	172.3
17	11	Ian Potts	MACH	171.2
18	11	Benaiah Roby	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	169.0
19	9	Jackson Willard	GRTC Peregrines	166.4
20	12	David Artman	Kalamazoo Homeschool Sports	166.2
21	10	Jacob Ziolkowski	GRTC Peregrines	166.1
22	9	Garrett Potts	MACH	165.8
23	11	Isaac McAlvey	Capital Homeschool	163.0
24	12	Edward Fountain	Capital Homeschool	162.9
25	11	Carter Grimmet	Capital Homeschool	162.2
26	10	Peter Kamp	Capital Homeschool	162.2
27	12	Axel Krantz	North Trails	158.3
28	12	Sebastian Hornibrook	North Trails	153.7
29	10	Thor Krantz	North Trails	153.2
30	9	Etienne Ruble	Central Michigan Homeschool Athletics	150.6

Girls

Rank	Team	Score	Top 5 Avg.	Last Week
1	GRTC Peregrines	21	128.4	1
2	Capital Homeschool	78	68.3	4
3	MACH	84	62.0	3
4	Christ the King	120	33.8	5
5	North Trails	147		6
6	Monroe Milers	152	2.6	7
7	West Michigan Homeschool	178		NR
8	Interlochen Arts Academy	194		NR
9	Detroit International Academy	270		NR

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	10	Stephanie DiPiazza	GRTC Peregrines	165.9
2	12	Sinead Noonan	GRTC Peregrines	145.2
3	9	Alannah Wessel	MACH	129.7
4	12	Maya Willard	GRTC Peregrines	118.6
5	9	Kate O’Donohue	GRTC Peregrines	114.8
6	10	Faith Wessel	MACH	106.0
7	12	Olivia Gust	North Trails	104.5
8	11	Samantha Hundt	Capital Homeschool	97.7
9	12	Melia Cullen	GRTC Peregrines	97.3
10	11	Evie Hakes	GRTC Peregrines	92.6
11	11	Dorothy Wagenmaker	GRTC Peregrines	92.0
12	9	Ingrid Thomas	Washtenaw Christian	88.8
13	11	Esther Hornibrook	North Trails	84.7
14	9	Micaela Cabello	Christ the King	84.5
15	10	Kimberly Siek	Berrien County Youth Track	83.3
16	10	Eleri Raleigh	Capital Homeschool	71.8
17	10	Taylor Basch	Capital Homeschool	70.7
18	12	Rebekah Gram	Monroe Milers	61.7
19	10	Rosie Stelwagen	West Michigan Homeschool	58.3
20	11	Hana Nishi	Interlochen Arts Academy	56.5
21	11	Maizy Minnaar	Capital Homeschool	55.1
22	12	Amber Watta	MACH	50.9
23	10	Alexis Graham	Christ the King	50.6
24	10	Juliana Prewett	Central Michigan Homeschool Athletics	48.7
25	9	Matti Vanderwey	Capital Homeschool	46.1
26	10	Lauren Carothers	Christ the King	39.3
27	12	Kennedy Childress	Monroe Milers	34.2
28	11	Lucy Spencer	Capital Homeschool	32.4
29	12	Ava Patterson	Capital Homeschool	31.6
30	12	Livia Kuecken	Blue Water Christian Academy	25.4

Uncategorized

2024 Rankings: Division 1, Championship Season

October 3, 2024October 3, 2024 mixcspeedratings

Week 3

The above link contains the best explanation of the year.

Week 4
Mid-Season Projections – Boys
Mid-Season Projections – Girls

Recap

It was a ~~rough~~ smooth two week stretch for Northville. The Mustangs handled business on their usual trip out of Michigan. Chicago in 2022, Roy Griak in 2023, then on September 21^st, a trip to the famed Blue River XC Course. For Michigan’s top-ranked team facing the best of Indiana, 24 total points and all five scorers under 16:10.

Meanwhile on that same date, many of the top-10 boys showed up to Jackson. Following a few weeks off, rested and ready to roll, Livonia Churchill was able to put three in the 15’s and have just enough from Wojtkowicz and Morche, claiming victory in a field as close to the D1 Finals as you’ll see in September.

Looking Forward

Whereas in previous weeks, the top teams went their separate ways, in early October, they’re now all entering the fray. Clarkston looks to be the Oakland County favorite, Canton and Livonia Churchill will duel at Willow (projections for both coming tomorrow), and Portage has:

#1 Northville
#2 Brighton
#3 Jenison
#6 Saline
#8 Kalamazoo Central
#9 Grand Haven
#10 Traverse City Central

Amongst many others.

Top 27

Rank	Team	Score	Region	Top 5 Avg.	Last Week
1	Northville	84	6	204.6	1
2	Brighton	254	4	197.4	3
3	Jenison	263	1	198.5	2
4	Canton	368	6	195.9	4
5	Livonia Churchill	391	6	194.6	7
6	Saline	412	5	192.7	6
7	Clarkston	429	8	192.9	5
8	Kalamazoo Central	456	3	192.4	21
9	Grand Haven	466	1	193.7	8
10	Traverse City Central	506	2	191.0	11
11	Ann Arbor Pioneer	541	5	193.6	NR
12	Portage Central	550	3	189.2	10
13	East Kentwood	556	3	190.8	9
14	Oxford	559	8	191.9	12
15	Forest Hills Central	609	3	189.9	17
16	Plymouth	633	6	188.9	13
17	Utica	679	9	188.3	18
18	Macomb Dakota	722	9	186.1	15
19	Rockford	742	1	185.0	14
20	Midland	775	2	185.1	16
21	Okemos	791	2	185.3	NR
22	Highland-Milford	806	7	187.9	19
23	White Lake Lakeland	811	7	183.7	20
24	Traverse City West	833	2	184.5	23
25	Caledonia	870	3	183.4	24
26	Salem	892	6	182.1	22
27	Dexter	973	4	183.5	25

Recap

It’s been all red and pink. I thought that Holland West Ottawa’s performance at FlashRock was the best of their year, the pink Panthers were able to outdo that at Otsego. Both were wins, the former against Indiana’s best, the latter containing seven WO girls under 19.

Setting the standard for the past 1.5 seasons has been Romeo, performing in this two week stretch in the same manner that the Bulldogs always have. A perfect score in the MAC Red Championship, preceded by placing six in the top-20 at Sharp Park.

Looking Forward

They’ve been flexing muscles separately all year long. Under the Lights, Holly, FlashRock, Jackson, Otsego, now a meeting. Romeo and Holland West Ottawa. This is as close to a State Final preview as you’ll find. The main question in comparing the two teams is Romeo’s 3^rdthrough 6^th vs. West Ottawa’s 2^nd through 6^th. The numbers thus far have shown that Romeo’s pack is slightly ahead of West Ottawa. The race isn’t run on numbers.

Yes, there are other teams in the state. With the addition of Ella Abraham, Rochester’s Falcons have asserted themselves as the favorite in Oakland County. Everyone else in the top-10 is Portage.

Top 27

Rank	Team	Score	Region	Top 5 Avg.	Last Week
1	Romeo	82	9	150.5	1
2	Holland West Ottawa	133	1	149.1	2
3	Saline	235	5	140.0	3
4	Ann Arbor Pioneer	272	5	143.4	5
5	Brighton	290	4	135.6	4
6	Rockford	334	1	133.7	6
7	Okemos	413	2	133.3	12
8	Traverse City West	439	2	129.2	7
9	Rochester	474	8	129.0	16
10	Grand Haven	493	1	128.0	8
11	Portage Central	524	3	125.0	10
12	Midland Dow	530	2	134.2	9
13	Northville	538	6	124.6	11
14	Jenison	584	1	122.7	15
15	Utica	592	9	123.1	13
16	White Lake Lakeland	623	7	121.4	14
17	Dexter	634	4	120.8	20
18	Hartland	652	4	120.9	17
19	Ann Arbor Skyline	669	4	120.2	19
20	Rochester Adams	688	8	119.8	18
21	Macomb Dakota	779	9	116.0	21
22	Hudsonville	791	1	115.6	22
23	Clarkston	813	8	114.5	24
24	Bay City Western	853	2	115.3	NR
25	Traverse City Central	880	2	112.7	25
26	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills	915	3	110.9	23
27	Ann Arbor Huron	927	6	112.3	NR

Individual Rankings

Recap

Two weeks ago, we were heavily anticipating a Jackson Invite. Cooler early morning temps, Kyle O’Rourke traversing an easier, Aidan Pengelly assuring an honest pace. Neither of the two disappointed, neither did any of the field. Sharp Park was home to five of the six fastest D1 times in the State. O’Rourke pulled away in the second mile, creating enough of a gap to ensure a 15:08 victory. Carter Livermore has quietly been racking up outstanding races, he was 2^nd. Pengelly crushed his previous PR.

The lone man that didn’t run at Jackson and was able to break into that top-six was Seth Conner, whose 15:16 at Otsego showed that he’s a few weeks ahead of last year’s schedule.

Thankfully, we received a debut. Kamari Ronfeldt on the way back, taking no time in finding a win in the second SEC Jamboree. The Pioneer course isn’t the easiest ever, he was still able to cruise to victory in 15:46.

Looking Forward

Three separate spots for matchups: Oakland County, Wayne County, and Portage.

Kyle O’Rourke going for his first Oakland crown, hoping to use course knowledge to earn a victory.

Just as the teams will vie for points in the pack, Joey Rohmfeld and Aidan Pengelly will face off near the front. Of course, they’ll be joined by a Colin Murray. We saw Murray come back on the two at Rambling Rock, we’ll see if the D1 kids will alter their approach to attain a win.

And of course – Portage. Seth Conner riding the high of last week, perhaps Kamari Ronfeldt in the purple, Carter Livermore, Ethan Powell, and a gang of others.

Top 30

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	11	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	216.5
2	10	Jack MacGregor	Howell	212.6
3	11	Aiden Pengelly	Canton	212.4
4	10	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer	211.4
5	12	Carter Livermore	Grandville	210.6
6	12	Ethan Powell	Northville	210.5
7	12	Seth Conner	Jenison	210.3
8	12	Alexander McArthur	Oxford	207.8
9	12	Joseph Rohmfeld	Livonia Churchill	207.3
10	12	Taye Levenson	Bloomfield Hills	207.3
11	11	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix	206.1
12	11	Ben Hartigan	Northville	206.0
13	12	Kian Schneeweis	Troy	205.6
14	11	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer	205.0
15	10	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven	205.0
16	12	Nick Barretto	Northville	204.0
17	12	Tyler Brock	Brighton	203.2
18	12	Julian Linebaugh	Dexter	203.0
19	10	Ben Romero	Forest Hills Central	202.7
20	11	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston	202.5
21	11	Ian Morgan	Okemos	201.8
22	12	Ishaan Kundapur	Northville	201.7
23	12	James Cusick	Oxford	201.5
24	12	Ben Eisnor	Grand Haven	201.4
25	12	Lucas LaMilza	Macomb Dakota	201.1
26	12	Sawyer McCarthy	Forest Hills Central	200.9
27	11	Aron Gal	Grand Haven	200.8
28	10	Brandon Cloud	Northville	200.7
29	12	Parker Strelecki	Jenison	200.5
30	12	Evan Nickoles	East Kentwood	200.1

Recap

Winning wings were indeed spread, both in Indiana and Michigan. Sub-17’s at each, both contributions to a national top-10 ranking for Helen Sachs (it’s on MileSplit and you have to pay, such a racket. Just trust me).

Taking a careful approach and likely shooting for a November/December peak, Victoria Garces opened with a 17:17 at Cadillac, then followed with a 17:26 at Shepherd. Both were wins, both solidifying her status as one of Michigan’s top runners.

Always saving her best for the State Finals, Lucy Cook gave us a preview of her condition. Facing great competition from Natasza Dudek, Cook was able to summon just enough in Jackson’s finishing stretch to claim a win, 17:26.2 to 17:27.5.

Looking Forward

Going for four straight Oakland County crowns will be Lucy Cook. Finn, DaDamio, Belf, Goethals, Osika – none of those girls have won four County titles. Only one, Katie Boyles can make that claim. Lucy has always displayed patience while racing, a necessity to conquer the infamous double hill and emerge victorious. We’ll see if she can pull it off.

At Portage, Helen Sachs will be up to her usual shenanigans, laying waste to the field up front, hoping to set an example for her fellow Panthers looking to hit an upset. Freshmen that have already proved they can handle the sublime experience, Rachel Smith, McKinley Jones, and Natasza Dudek will gain even more of it on the star-studded Portage West MS grounds.

Top 30

Rank	Grade	Name	Team	Rating
1	12	Helen Sachs	Holland West Ottawa	176.7
2	12	Victoria Garces	Midland Dow	170.5
3	9	Natasza Dudek	Ann Arbor Pioneer	167.2
4	9	Rachel Smith	Okemos	162.3
5	11	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo	160.0
6	9	Emilia Garces	Midland Dow	159.0
7	11	Hana Boggess	Ann Arbor Pioneer	154.9
8	9	Sienna Klemmer	Ann Arbor Pioneer	154.5
9	9	McKinley Jones	Saline	154.0
10	12	Lucy Cook	Rochester	153.6
11	10	Daisy Cox	Rockford	152.9
12	12	Mallory Bigelow	Oxford	152.5
13	11	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton	152.1
14	10	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo	151.7
15	12	Valerie Beeck	Grand Haven	151.4
16	12	Kaelin Hughes	Livonia Stevenson	150.5
17	10	Annabeth Hazlewood	Salem	149.9
18	12	Annie Alkema	Kalamazoo Central	148.9
19	9	Savannah Staton	Saline	148.8
20	12	Lillian Deskins	Romeo	148.2
21	12	Violet Hrabovsky	Romeo	146.8
22	12	Olivia Purdy	Romeo	145.8
23	10	Collette Wierks	Holland West Ottawa	144.9
24	11	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek	144.9
25	12	Emma Gunnett	Holland West Ottawa	144.8
26	11	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa	144.7
27	11	Emmerson Clor	Romeo	144.5
28	10	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West	144.4
29	12	Isabelle Becker	Bay City Western	143.5
30	12	Corynn Gady	Saline	142.7