2026 Championship Projections: More October 24th Championships

The Upper Peninsula folks got their separate post that I wanted to get out a little early. This next one is the projections for three championships: Saginaw County, Shiawassee County, and Thumb Area.

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, larger meets, and faster meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

With these calculated and simulated, without further ado:

THUMB AREA

Trophies to the Top-3 Teams
Medals to the Top-27 Individuals

Boys

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %
1	Caro	43	95+	95+
2	Yale	78		95+
3	Croswell-Lexington	121		69
4	Pigeon-Laker	128		30
5	North Branch	161
6	Unionville-Sebewaing	164
7	Sandusky	223
8	Kingston	233
9	Harbor Beach	238
10	Ubly	247
11	Mayville	278
12	Millington	285
13	Vassar	296
14	Deckerville	320

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Luke Herron	Caro	1.0
2	12	Connor Pepin	Croswell-Lexington	2.0
3	12	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker	4.8
4	10	Jacob Daisy	Caro	5.8
5	12	Owen Wruble	Harbor Beach	6.0
6	10	Charlie Fields	North Branch	6.0
7	11	Brady VanConant	Yale	6.3
8	9	Noah Miller	Yale	8.2
9	11	Wyatt Blohm	Vassar	10.4
10	10	Gunnar Long	Sandusky	12.3
11	10	Jackson Ransford	Caro	12.5
12	12	Mayson McIntosh	Caro	13.9
13	10	Zeke Rickwalt	Caro	13.9
14	11	Logan Carrier	Yale	15.3
15	11	Maksim Kohl	Unionville-Sebewaing	16.4
16	12	Henry Haag	Pigeon-Laker	17.3
17	9	Elliott Daisy	Caro	17.5
18	12	Sebastian Seifferlein	Sandusky	17.7
19	10	Weston Guza	Ubly	18.2
20	12	Brennan Robinson	Kingston	21.7
21	12	Cooper Hoyt	North Branch	21.7
22	11	Alexander Repp	Croswell-Lexington	22.3
23	12	Thijs Van Rijn	Kingston	22.3
24	11	Thomas Schweihofer	Yale	24.8
25	11	Masen O’Neil	Millington	25.9
26	10	Colt Truscott	Croswell-Lexington	26.4
27	9	Riley Wolf	Unionville-Sebewaing	27.1
28	11	Steven Foltz	Yale	28.1
29	11	Joshua Walch	Caro	29.1
30	12	Noah Young	Pigeon-Laker	33.3
31	11	Gabe Verellen	North Branch	34.0
32	12	Carter Krause	Yale	34.8
33	11	Daren Hawker	Croswell-Lexington	36.2
34	11	Collin Merchant	Unionville-Sebewaing	36.9
35	9	Brian May	Yale	37.2
36	10	Parker Shopbell	Croswell-Lexington	37.5
37	12	Wesley Kosinski	North Huron	37.7
38	10	Walter Haag	Pigeon-Laker	38.0
39	10	Tucker Gascoyne	Memphis	39.4
40	9	Paul Oder	Harbor Beach	40.0

Girls

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %
1	Harbor Beach	65	64	95+
2	Yale	70	31	95+
3	Caro	86	5	89
4	Croswell-Lexington	109		12
5	Ubly	119
6	Pigeon-Laker	162
7	Kingston	168
8	North Huron	198
9	Sandusky	202
10	North Branch	254

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Violet Tetil	Caro	1.9
2	10	Norah Kiley	Kingston	2.4
3	11	Saige Cole	Yale	3.9
4	9	Juliet Siemen	Harbor Beach	5.4
5	10	Sage Palmer	Sandusky	7.4
6	12	Cailin Spearman	Harbor Beach	7.9
7	11	Alyvia Janke	Unionville-Sebewaing	8.4
8	11	Madelyn Barkley	Croswell-Lexington	8.6
9	10	Jocelyn Tetil	Caro	11.1
10	9	Sophia Messing	Deckerville	11.4
11	9	Reagan Shadley	Cass City	12.2
12	10	Katelyn Schweihofer	Yale	12.3
13	10	Claire Burrows	Millington	13.3
14	12	Eliza Thompson	Croswell-Lexington	13.5
15	10	Isabella West	Mayville	14.2
16	11	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro	15.2
17	10	Brynn Burrows	Millington	15.8
18	11	Esther Bulgrien	Harbor Beach	17.1
19	11	Payton King	Kingston	17.5
20	12	Lillian Bender	Yale	21.8
21	11	Myah Peruski	Ubly	23.3
22	11	Abbygail Plester	Ubly	23.9
23	11	Noelle Marsh	Yale	25.0
24	11	Lydia Popp	Pigeon-Laker	25.2
25	10	Rachel Becker	Unionville-Sebewaing	25.7
26	11	Hailey Morrison	Croswell-Lexington	28.8
27	11	Alexa Robbins	Harbor Beach	30.3
28	10	Kayden Parker	Harbor Beach	31.9
29	12	Ava Childers	Yale	33.3
30	12	Lani Dimock	Harbor Beach	33.4
31	10	Breana Adame	Sandusky	33.4
32	10	Carolan Emmons	Millington	35.1
33	11	Brystal Klinkman	Cass City	35.8
34	11	Nele Boettner	Ubly	36.5
35	11	Kayle Talaski	North Huron	36.6
36	12	Adela Chocholova	Caseville	36.9
37	12	Penelope Persig	Croswell-Lexington	37.2
38	10	Fiona Phillips	North Huron	37.6
39	9	Summer Franzel	Ubly	38.0
40	10	Harlo Schenk	Millington	40.1

SAGINAW COUNTY

Trophies to the Top-3 Teams
Medals to the Top-21 Individuals, in increments of 7 for 1st Team, 2nd Team, and 3rd Team All-County

Boys

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %
1	Saginaw Heritage	26	95+	95+
2	Freeland	60		95+
3	Saginaw Swan Valley	97		61
4	Frankenmuth	98		39
5	Birch Run	134
6	Chesaning	171
7	Saginaw Arts and Sciences	210
8	Saginaw United	229
9	Carrollton	238
10	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	273

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Abram Fettig	Saginaw Nouvel	1.4
2	12	Nick Parker	Frankenmuth	3.0
3	11	Pascal Rasmussen	Saginaw Heritage	3.5
4	11	Abe Blaskowski	Saginaw Heritage	4.1
5	9	Connor Charboneau	Saginaw Swan Valley	4.9
6	11	Alec Brown	Saginaw Heritage	5.1
7	12	Brett Lewis	Saginaw Heritage	9.0
8	12	Jaxon Hemgesberg	Chesaning	9.6
9	12	Jackson Horn	Freeland	9.7
10	10	Ryan Brown	Freeland	10.0
11	11	Gabe Jaime	Saginaw Heritage	11.2
12	9	Carter Minnis	Freeland	11.3
13	12	Matthew Wortley	Saginaw Heritage	11.8
14	12	Braeden Conger	Frankenmuth	12.9
15	12	Spencer Dammann	Saginaw Swan Valley	15.5
16	9	Carter Mausolf	Birch Run	17.1
17	9	Ryan Ridley	Saginaw Heritage	17.3
18	12	Devlin Johnson	Freeland	17.4
19	11	Noah Dallas	Freeland	18.6
20	10	Everett Anaya	Freeland	19.2
21	11	Xavier Teneyuque	Carrollton	22.1
22	11	Emmett Worden	Birch Run	22.7
23	9	Colton Geiling	Freeland	23.2
24	11	Reid Barden	Frankenmuth	24.4
25	10	Vaughn Trombley	Saginaw Swan Valley	25.5
26	12	Nolan Selasky	Saginaw Swan Valley	28.8
27	12	Owen Hare	Saginaw Swan Valley	29.8
28	10	Tyler Licht	Birch Run	30.3
29	12	Jobriel Octubre	Chesaning	31.1
30	10	Dominic DeVellis	Frankenmuth	32.1

Girls

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-3 %
1	Freeland	67	72	95+
2	Frankenmuth	76	14	71
3	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	77	6	65
4	Chesaning	77	8	68
5	Birch Run	127
6	Saginaw Swan Valley	132
7	Saginaw Heritage	160
8	Saginaw Nouvel	201

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Clara Kaczor	Freeland	1.6
2	9	Grace Jordan	Chesaning	2.2
3	12	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth	2.4
4	11	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	4.4
5	11	Sawyer Lynn	Saginaw Heritage	5.6
6	12	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run	6.3
7	9	Abigail Jordan	Chesaning	7.3
8	12	Emily Beethe	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	7.9
9	12	Aubrey Hare	Saginaw Swan Valley	8.3
10	9	Emma Parker	Frankenmuth	11.4
11	11	Bethany Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	12.9
12	10	Grace Kloha	Freeland	13.9
13	9	Journey Lynn	Saginaw Heritage	14.9
14	10	Sadie Mueller	St. Charles	15.0
15	12	Rachael Heikkinen	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	15.8
16	10	Katie Niederquell	Freeland	16.2
17	11	Kinsley Compau	Frankenmuth	17.1
18	12	Olivia Mielke	Freeland	19.3
19	10	Addison King	Frankenmuth	19.9
20	11	Ruby Gross	Chesaning	21.7
21	10	Sarah Diffin	Freeland	22.3
22	11	Leah Theile	Chesaning	23.0
23	12	Claire Long	Saginaw Nouvel	23.1
24	9	Kenley Townsend	Saginaw Swan Valley	25.6
25	11	Alonna Neumann	Chesaning	26.8
26	11	Gabriella Dallas	Freeland	28.7
27	9	Emiliya Medrano	Birch Run	29.5
28	12	Isabel Reinke	Freeland	30.5
29	10	Meredith Bauer	Frankenmuth	30.8
30	10	Kylee Smith	Birch Run	31.1

SHIAWASSEE COUNTY

Trophies to each Team Champion
Medals to the Top-14 Individuals, in increments of 7 for 1st and 2nd team All-County

Boys

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %
1	Owosso	17	95+
2	Corunna	58
3	Laingsburg	77
4	New Lothrop	108
5	Ovid-Elsie	127
6	Morrice	165

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Leonidas Erfourth	Owosso	1.4
2	9	Spencer Sobak	Owosso	2.4
3	11	Brady Rappuhn	Owosso	3.4
4	11	Christian LeConte	Owosso	4.6
5	12	Ariston Dallas	Owosso	6.3
6	12	McKinley Springer	Corunna	7.8
7	10	Graesyn Baley	Owosso	7.9
8	10	Lucas Heid	Corunna	8.0
9	12	Kai Miller	Owosso	8.1
10	9	Jace Devereaux	Laingsburg	8.7
11	9	Vincent Couzynse	Corunna	11.7
12	9	Lucas Demeter	New Lothrop	11.7
13	11	Parker Dennis	Durand	12.9
14	11	Austin Hodges	Laingsburg	14.1
15	10	Gabe Lockwood	Corunna	16.1
16	12	Travis Wright	Ovid-Elsie	17.8
17	10	Joel Rathka	Laingsburg	18.1
18	9	Hunter Woodworth	Laingsburg	18.6
19	12	Micah Yates	Corunna	20.4
20	12	Ty Sweers	New Lothrop	21.2

Girls

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %
1	Owosso	43	82
2	Laingsburg	51	17
3	New Lothrop	64
4	Perry	113
5	Corunna	120
6	Ovid-Elsie	130

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Abby Crandell	Owosso	1.1
2	10	Sydney Knieper	New Lothrop	2.0
3	9	Penny Ewald	Owosso	3.0
4	12	Jaidyn Nickels	Corunna	5.1
5	12	Payge Woodworth	Laingsburg	6.3
6	11	Ava Wenzlick	New Lothrop	7.5
7	12	Paige Woodworth	Laingsburg	8.1
8	12	Samantha Gutzman	Laingsburg	9.9
9	11	KiKi Rusz	Laingsburg	10.1
10	9	Bella Stewart	Ovid-Elsie	10.3
11	11	Ali Hunt	New Lothrop	12.5
12	10	Olivia Roseberry	Perry	13.0
13	11	Adi Doyle	Owosso	13.5
14	11	Miriam Skarich	Owosso	14.3
15	10	Ava Spencer	Owosso	14.9
16	10	Allyanna Hart	Perry	16.2
17	11	Summer Walker	Owosso	16.2
18	9	Molly McDougall Smith	Laingsburg	17.5
19	11	Gracie Ockerman	Owosso	19.9
20	11	Evelyn Lindberg	Corunna	20.0