2026 Championship Projections: Upper Peninsula Finals

With the coming of championship season comes race projections. And better than previous weeks, race simulations!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, larger meets, and faster meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

With these calculated and simulated, without further ado:

DIVISION ONE

Boys

Marquette is a fairly clear favorite. The Sentinels aren’t up to the elite level of previous squads, but can still score a perfect 15 in their recent GNC Championship win.

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-2 %
1	Marquette	23	95+	95+
2	Sault Ste. Marie	82		83
3	Houghton	98		9
4	Gladstone	98		8
5	Negaunee	167
6	Kingsford	178
7	Ishpeming Westwood	180
8	Menominee	202
9	Escanaba	228
10	Manistique	278
11	Powers North Central	296

Lucas Ballard is the class of the field. Ballard showed track prowess early in his career, dipping under 4:20 in the 1600m as a sophomore, winning the UP D1 800m championship as well. This past spring, he took those honors to two events, including the 1600m in his accolades. It’s taken a bit longer for his potential to shine through on the cross course, but this season, it truly has – running as fast as 15:17 at Bluejay.

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Lucas Ballard	Marquette	1.0
2	11	Lake Skytta	Marquette	4.0
3	11	William Lindsay	Marquette	5.5
4	12	Chase Aldridge	Sault Ste. Marie	5.7
5	11	Brandon Van Karsen	Houghton	5.8
6	10	Calvin Carlson	Ishpeming Westwood	8.2
7	12	Vasu Esplin	Marquette	8.2
8	12	Welly Fillmore	Marquette	8.9
9	11	Garrett Crimmins	Marquette	9.1
10	9	Bradley Klann	Menominee	10.5
11	12	Charles Cameron	Gladstone	11.0
12	9	Anthony Messina	Marquette	11.4
13	12	Cavan Mulligan	Kingsford	11.5
14	9	Tyler Rule	Houghton	12.1
15	10	Drew Burtt	Sault Ste. Marie	13.5
16	12	Chuck Cameron	Gladstone	16.6
17	12	David Marone	Sault Ste. Marie	18.8
18	10	Charlie Blair	Gladstone	19.3
19	10	Cole Ceane	Houghton	19.5
20	11	Ian Southwell	Sault Ste. Marie	20.0
21	11	Kingston Berube	Escanaba	20.4
22	10	Nicholas Moulds	Gladstone	20.9
23	10	Tyler Rautiola	Negaunee	23.3
24	12	Easton Hills	Sault Ste. Marie	25.1
25	10	Conor Smith	Kingsford	29.6
26	12	Kaden Malone	Powers North Central	29.9
27	12	Hayden Preston	Sault Ste. Marie	30.7
28	12	Cristian Hayen	Gladstone	31.0
29	12	Tristan Wolfe	Houghton	31.8
30	11	Anders Johnston	Negaunee	33.2

Girls

Unfortunately we haven’t seen any head-to-head matchups between Marquette and Sault Ste. Marie. Each of the teams have thrown down performances that could lead to a title – Marquette placing smack dab in the middle of the Bluejay elite field, placing four girls sub-21. Sault Ste. Marie competed in a similar manner at Holly, placing 4^th in the D3 field, their entire varsity squad sub-22:30 on that muddy day. Marquette’s best performances have come a bit more recently and thus, the Sentinels have landed as the favorite.

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-2 %
1	Marquette	48	82	95+
2	Sault Ste. Marie	59	17	91
3	Houghton	72		7
4	Negaunee	82
5	Kingsford	147
6	Calumet	168
7	Menominee	189
8	Escanaba	194

Just as the team race, the same holds true for the individuals. Asia Jones and Charlotte Jones have each had superb performances worthy of a D1 champion. Asia was sub-20 at Holly and Jackson, Charlotte the same at Bluejay. Charlotte holds the better season best. Asia has unlocked some serious improvement, dropping over 2.5 minutes from the 2025 season.

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Charlotte Jones	Marquette	2.3
2	12	Asia Jones	Sault Ste. Marie	2.8
3	10	Emma Ziegler	Marquette	3.8
4	11	Maria Murvich	Kingsford	3.8
5	11	Holly Cooke	Houghton	4.4
6	9	Julia Plaxco	Negaunee	4.9
7	12	Keira Waterman	Negaunee	9.2
8	10	Brooke Hoppe	Houghton	10.1
9	10	Cora Goulet	Sault Ste. Marie	10.6
10	10	Ava Cantway	Marquette	11.0
11	9	Emma Jukuri	Houghton	11.8
12	12	Winley Brandt	Menominee	11.9
13	11	Evelyn Grant	Marquette	13.1
14	11	Isabeau Woodard	Sault Ste. Marie	14.5
15	12	Norah Woodruff	Houghton	15.5
16	11	Isabelle McCord	Sault Ste. Marie	17.2
17	12	Regan Sporte	Sault Ste. Marie	17.5
18	10	Brynn Wiecich	Negaunee	19.2
19	10	Amira Perrier	Marquette	19.3
20	10	Avah Akerley	Escanaba	20.4
21	10	Kelsey Daley	Sault Ste. Marie	20.7
22	12	Joselyn Mills	Gladstone	20.8
23	9	Clara Niebuhr	Sault Ste. Marie	23.0
24	12	Eryn Veverka	Marquette	23.6
25	11	Bethany McParlan	Calumet	24.7
26	11	Elli Harju	Calumet	25.4
27	10	Sophie Coxon	Marquette	26.1
28	11	Eliza Sicotte	Negaunee	29.1
29	9	Amelia Chouinard	Escanaba	30.9
30	10	Aline Norkoli	Powers North Central	32.1

DIVISION TWO

Boys

The closest projection of the day! Rudyard and Munising have hooked up on a few occasions, the most recent of which at Rudyard’s Autumn Classic. The two teams were separated by five points, the main difference coming through Munising’s depth in the final two scoring spots, where they outscored the Bulldogs by nearly 20 pts. I wouldn’t count out Painesdale-Jeffers, competing right down the street, the Jets coming off a WestPAC Final where they were able to put four boys at 19-flat(ish) or faster.

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-2 %
1	Munising	42	50	77
2	Rudyard	44	38	77
3	Painesdale-Jeffers	50	12	46
4	Brimley	108
5	Ironwood	143
6	Newberry	168

Eli Folkersma is a solid favorite, followed by Kemper Gearhart, Brandon Anderson, and Blake Lakosky. Folkersma has the highest ratings of any D2 folk, consistently in the 160’s or higher. He’s also won every matchup against either of the three. On this Houghton course, Anderson did come the closest to Folkersma, trailing by a 15-second gap. Gearhart has won some recent matchups against Anderson and shares Folkersma’s consistency, albeit a little slower. Lakosky has shown the capability of adjusting to tough conditions, running a 18:30 at Holly on less than an ideal day.

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Eli Folkersma	Rudyard	1.7
2	12	Blake Lakosky	Munising	4.4
3	12	Kemper Gearhart	Ishpeming	4.5
4	11	Branson Anderson	Painesdale-Jeffers	4.7
5	10	Jack LaLone	Rudyard	7.3
6	12	Darren Johnson	Brimley	7.7
7	9	Evan Kelto	Munising	8.3
8	10	Liam Kinnunen	Painesdale-Jeffers	9.0
9	12	Zaine Nichols	Rudyard	11.2
10	9	Orin Shalom	Munising	11.9
11	12	Noah Randell	Painesdale-Jeffers	11.9
12	12	Nolan Dolaskie	Munising	13.6
13	10	Dylan Krause	Munising	13.8
14	10	Liam Hoolsema	Rudyard	15.0
15	12	Tage Rajala	Painesdale-Jeffers	16.4
16	12	Oliver Dankert	Rudyard	16.6
17	10	Carson LEsperance	Painesdale-Jeffers	17.8
18	12	Ben Dryke	Munising	18.2
19	11	Evan Heltunen	Painesdale-Jeffers	19.2
20	11	Jason Parmelee	Hancock	19.5
21	11	Bryce Mitchell	Rudyard	23.1
22	10	Henry Johnson	Painesdale-Jeffers	24.3
23	10	John Green	Gwinn	24.8
24	9	Van Evans	Brimley	26.3
25	10	Kaden McGuire	Brimley	26.9
26	11	Bryce Kevern	Munising	27.1
27	9	Matthew Lupino	Ironwood	27.6
28	10	Axel Hollenbeck	Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer	27.8
29	10	Knox Pulkas	Ironwood	30.4
30	12	Brady Leblanc	Brimley	31.3

Girls

Munising is a good bet. The Mustangs were able to put four girls under 23:00 at the recent Rudyard Autumn Classic, a mini preview between the top-2 projected teams. Munising won that, placing six girls before Rudyard’s fourth.

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-2 %
1	Munising	44	95+	95+
2	Rudyard	66		84
3	Painesdale-Jeffers	75		16
4	Hancock	106
5	Brimley	121
6	Newberry	126
7	Ironwood	195

It’s two teammates, Abby Taylor and Molly McNamara. Taylor has been at the forefront all year, sub-20 in her past five races. She’s also experienced success here, placing in the top-3 of the D3 Finals in each of the past three years. McNamara has been the closest competition, breaking 20:00 a few times, going as low as 19:29 (8 seconds behind Taylor) at Bluejay.

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Abby Taylor	Newberry	1.2
2	10	Molly McNamara	Newberry	2.1
3	9	Emma Conklin	Munising	2.9
4	11	Alena Pietila	Hancock	4.3
5	10	Ashlyn Mitchell	Rudyard	7.0
6	10	Melissa Kirschner	Rudyard	7.2
7	11	Addie Bowerman	Munising	7.7
8	9	Siri Jacobson	Wakefield-Marenisco/Bessemer	7.9
9	11	Remi Coponen	Painesdale-Jeffers	8.9
10	9	Colleen Rice	Rudyard	9.2
11	10	Sophie Mahoski	Ishpeming	9.9
12	9	Edon Kidd	Munising	13.2
13	9	Natalie Brock	Munising	14.7
14	11	Maya Weiss	Munising	15.1
15	11	Sophia Johnson	Painesdale-Jeffers	15.8
16	11	Zoey Kidd	Munising	16.0
17	12	Lillian Carrick	Brimley	16.2
18	11	Karissa Rautiola	Painesdale-Jeffers	16.3
19	11	Brynn Meyer	Munising	19.8
20	12	Kaylee Baldwin	Norway	21.0
21	10	Jenae Koski	Hancock	22.1
22	10	Evelyn Sturos	Painesdale-Jeffers	22.6
23	12	Audrey Whealy	Brimley	23.0
24	10	Vayda Kinnunen	Painesdale-Jeffers	27.2
25	11	Norah Smart	Brimley	27.3
26	11	Tenley Larson	Painesdale-Jeffers	28.4
27	10	Chloe Asiala	Painesdale-Jeffers	28.8
28	11	Emma DeYoung	Rudyard	29.5
29	11	Annabell Dankert	Rudyard	29.8
30	10	Emma Folkersma	Rudyard	29.9

DIVISION THREE

Boys

Cedarville has the advantage of only needing to score four, Ethan Snyder with a great chance of becoming the individual champion. Rapid River and Forest Park have come together twice in October, with Forest Park winning by single digits each time out. But the Rockets may have had their best performance of the year in a win at the Great Eskymos Chase, putting four boys at 19:20 or faster. St. Ignace, despite being projected 4^th, was only 8 pts. behind Cedarville at the EUP Final. Although there have been some patterns, the smaller field and small margins could lead to upset possibilities.

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-2 %
1	Cedarville	97	61	88
2	Rapid River	110	18	47
3	Forest Park	111	13	38
4	St. Ignace	120	5	16
5	Rock Mid-Peninsula	126		7
6	Stephenson	158
7	Engadine	159
8	L’Anse	168
9	Pickford	173
10	Copper Island Academy	190
11	Eben Jct. Superior Central	237
12	Baraga	306
13	Carney-Nadeau	316

Ethan Snyder has been on a tear all year. Whereas he stayed on the high side of 17:00 throughout his first two cross seasons, he’s been consistently under that mark throughout much of 2026, his senior season. His past five races have all been of the sub-17 variety, including the most recent, becoming an EUP Conference Champion.

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Ethan Snyder	Cedarville	1.0
2	10	Ashdeyn Gerow	Rock Mid-Peninsula	2.7
3	12	Jacob Mitchell	Pickford	3.0
4	11	Wyatt Huhn	St. Ignace	5.3
5	9	Liam Bohn	Cedarville	6.8
6	11	Nate Stielstra	Engadine	8.2
7	11	Eddie Franckowiak	Engadine	8.3
8	11	Hayden Smith	Forest Park	9.6
9	9	Niko Reed	Dollar Bay	9.9
10	10	Eli Stiglitz	Rock Mid-Peninsula	11.7
11	10	Owen Truitt	Rapid River	11.9
12	9	Jaxon Klyk	Eben Jct. Superior Central	14.2
13	12	Jae Poma	Rapid River	14.4
14	11	Jack Ruonavaara	Copper Island Academy	16.1
15	11	Rush Hinnen	Cedarville	17.1
16	10	Aiden Gould	St. Ignace	18.7
17	12	Jon Denkins	Rapid River	19.1
18	12	Dietrich Rasner	Forest Park	19.8
19	10	Reuben Rasner	Forest Park	21.3
20	10	Ezra Asher	St. Ignace	22.5
21	11	Kaydan Davidson	L’Anse	22.7
22	9	Brody Denkins	Rapid River	22.8
23	10	Landon Pivatto	Stephenson	23.6
24	9	Trenton Cairns	Stephenson	24.8
25	12	Landon Halkola	Dollar Bay	26.5
26	10	Dominick Williams	Watersmeet Township	29.3
27	9	Colin Geyer	Cedarville	29.6
28	9	Blake Heyboer	Pickford	30.6
29	11	Devin Connor	L’Anse	31.0
30	9	Charlie Johnson	Copper Island Academy	31.1

Girls

The L’Anse girls are about as deep as you’ll get in the UP D3 world. Their roster consists of 14 girls, impressive considering the school only has around 150 students. Anyhow, six of those girls have been sub-24 on the year, providing the numbers that could lead the Purple Hornets to dominate the D3 field.

Proj. Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top-2 %
1	L’Anse	51	95+	95+
2	Rapid River	86		48
3	Ewen-Trout Creek	87		42
4	Eben Jct. Superior Central	97		10
5	Forest Park	110
6	St. Ignace	124
7	Engadine	126

Edye Burdett has been the class of the division thus far, parlaying an excellent MS season last fall into high school success. She’s run the fastest time in UP D3, 19:32. Bree Besonen could be close competition, as Besonen was only 5 seconds back during their last matchup at Superior Central. Throughout much of September, Burdett held higher ratings, but on the latest race from the two, the ratings were almost identical.

Proj. Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Edye Burdett	Eben Jct. Superior Central	1.1
2	11	Bree Besonen	Ewen-Trout Creek	2.0
3	10	Evonna LaCosse	Rapid River	3.5
4	9	Ellie Zaupa	Forest Park	5.1
5	11	Kwynn Voskuhl	L’Anse	7.2
6	10	Autumn Broomfield	Watersmeet Township	8.2
7	9	Paget Hinnen	Cedarville	9.1
8	9	Lily Halkola	Dollar Bay	9.1
9	11	Lily Froese	L’Anse	10.8
10	11	Kendra Pederson	Eben Jct. Superior Central	12.0
11	10	Sarah Chapman	Engadine	12.1
12	10	Julia Poma	Rapid River	14.7
13	11	AJ Feleppa	St. Ignace	15.2
14	11	Princess Pierre	L’Anse	15.5
15	11	Annie Haataja	Copper Island Academy	15.9
16	12	Sylvia Aho	Chassell	17.1
17	9	Avryl VanOss	Forest Park	17.4
18	11	Vivian Norden	Rock Mid-Peninsula	19.0
19	10	Genevieve Hanna	Cedarville	19.0
20	11	Aaliyah Maki	L’Anse	19.5
21	8	Arianna Jahfetson	Baraga	21.0
22	10	Erika Tourangeau	Rock Mid-Peninsula	22.0
23	12	Tessa Thor	L’Anse	23.4
24	10	Alyssa DeCremer	Ewen-Trout Creek	23.6
25	12	Gabriella Putnam	Stephenson	24.1
26	11	Karly Grant	St. Ignace	25.5
27	10	Dalanna Connor	L’Anse	26.1
28	11	Ashlynn Thompson	Rapid River	27.9
29	10	Leona Schutz	Ewen-Trout Creek	29.8
30	11	Breyelle Bowers	L’Anse	32.3