I had a novel thought while running the other day. What if, instead of averaging the top 5, which overrates teams with a great 1st (or 2nd) runner, I just scored out a hypothetical meet with the teams in each division/the whole state. And used that to determine rankings. I had been playing around with weighing the latter runners more, finding out the average 5th runner, etc. But nothing was coming up as more predictive than a hypothetical meet. So here you go:
HYPOTHETICAL MEET – AKA THE ACTUAL RANKINGS
Rank | Team | Region | Score |
1 | Adrian Lenawee Christian | 34 | 121 |
2 | Bridgman | 31 | 202 |
3 | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 30 | 209 |
4 | Kalamazoo Christian | 32 | 271 |
5 | Hudson | 34 | 320 |
6 | St. Philip Catholic Central | 32 | 327 |
7 | Carson City-Crystal | 30 | 337 |
8 | Fowler | 33 | 355 |
9 | East Jordan | 28 | 410 |
10 | Muskegon Western Michigan Christian | 31 | 416 |
11 | Clarkston Everest Collegiate | 36 | 432 |
12 | Harbor Beach | 35 | 474 |
13 | Owendale-Gagetown | 35 | 503 |
14 | Johannesburg-Lewiston | 28 | 513 |
15 | Allen Park Cabrini | 36 | 526 |
16 | Ubly | 35 | 542 |
17 | Beal City | 30 | 584 |
18 | Breckenridge | 35 | 590 |
19 | Maple City Glen Lake | 29 | 626 |
20 | Frankfort | 29 | 654 |
21 | Plymouth Christian Academy | 36 | 673 |
22 | Libertas Christian | 31 | 680 |
23 | Lake Leelanau St. Mary | 29 | 694 |
24 | Saranac | 33 | 696 |
25 | Deckerville | 35 | 741 |
I’ll still include the stats I was posting in previous weeks.
TOP 5 AVERAGE
Rank | Team | Average |
1 | Adrian Lenawee Christian | 102.9 |
2 | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 93.7 |
3 | Bridgman | 91.8 |
4 | Muskegon Western Michigan Christian | 85.0 |
5 | Hudson | 77.8 |
6 | Kalamazoo Christian | 77.3 |
7 | St. Philip Catholic Central | 76.4 |
8 | Carson City-Crystal | 73.7 |
9 | East Jordan | 72.4 |
10 | Fowler | 72.4 |
11 | Clarkston Everest Collegiate | 66.0 |
12 | Harbor Beach | 64.1 |
13 | Ubly | 63.1 |
14 | Johannesburg-Lewiston | 60.6 |
15 | Owendale-Gagetown | 60.2 |
16 | Allen Park Cabrini | 58.7 |
17 | Maple City Glen Lake | 56.4 |
18 | Breckenridge | 53.7 |
19 | Beal City | 53.2 |
20 | Plymouth Christian Academy | 47.9 |
21 | Saranac | 46.4 |
22 | Frankfort | 46.1 |
23 | Lake Leelanau St. Mary | 45.7 |
24 | Libertas Christian | 44.6 |
25 | Rochester Hills Lutheran NW | 39.7 |
TOP 7 AVERAGE
Rank | Team | Average |
1 | Adrian Lenawee Christian | 92.3 |
2 | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 76.1 |
3 | Kalamazoo Christian | 71.8 |
4 | Bridgman | 71.1 |
5 | Muskegon Western Michigan Christian | 62.5 |
6 | Fowler | 61.6 |
7 | East Jordan | 56.5 |
8 | Carson City-Crystal | 53.4 |
9 | Clarkston Everest Collegiate | 52.7 |
10 | Ubly | 50.3 |
11 | Allen Park Cabrini | 49.2 |
12 | Johannesburg-Lewiston | 40.7 |
13 | Breckenridge | 37.9 |
14 | Maple City Glen Lake | 36.1 |
15 | Saranac | 33.8 |
16 | Grand Traverse Academy | 27.7 |
17 | Rochester Hills Lutheran NW | 25.6 |
18 | Plymouth Christian Academy | 25.4 |
19 | Lake Leelanau St. Mary | 20.8 |
20 | Sand Creek | 9.3 |
21 | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 2.0 |
22 | Lutheran HS Westland | -1.4 |
23 | Concord | -3.8 |
24 | Leland | -12.1 |
25 | Whitmore Lake | -12.5 |
TOP 5 SPREAD
Rank | Team | Spread |
1 | Kalamazoo Christian | 14.7 |
2 | Lake Leelanau St. Mary | 33.5 |
3 | Sand Creek | 34.1 |
4 | Carson City-Crystal | 35.7 |
5 | Grand Traverse Academy | 40.8 |
6 | Fowler | 41.3 |
7 | Allen Park Cabrini | 41.6 |
8 | Clarkston Everest Collegiate | 43.8 |
9 | St. Philip Catholic Central | 45.0 |
10 | Adrian Lenawee Christian | 50.5 |
11 | Hudson | 52.9 |
12 | Owendale-Gagetown | 53.8 |
13 | Breckenridge | 55.9 |
14 | Livingston Christian | 56.0 |
15 | Bridgman | 56.6 |
16 | East Jordan | 56.6 |
17 | Fulton | 58.5 |
18 | Rochester Hills Lutheran NW | 59.3 |
19 | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 64.6 |
20 | Lutheran HS Westland | 71.3 |
21 | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 71.7 |
22 | Libertas Christian | 78.5 |
23 | Saranac | 79.0 |
24 | Vestaburg | 79.6 |
25 | Harbor Beach | 82.3 |
TOP 7 SPREAD
Rank | Team | Spread |
1 | Kalamazoo Christian | 30.3 |
2 | Grand Traverse Academy | 52.1 |
3 | Adrian Lenawee Christian | 64.2 |
4 | Clarkston Everest Collegiate | 64.3 |
5 | Allen Park Cabrini | 64.4 |
6 | Fowler | 72.0 |
7 | Sand Creek | 78.4 |
8 | Breckenridge | 88.5 |
9 | East Jordan | 91.7 |
10 | Carson City-Crystal | 92.7 |
11 | Rochester Hills Lutheran NW | 95.9 |
12 | Saranac | 100.6 |
13 | Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary | 102.7 |
14 | Ubly | 107.7 |
15 | Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart | 108.2 |
16 | Lake Leelanau St. Mary | 112.3 |
17 | Johannesburg-Lewiston | 114.6 |
18 | Fulton | 124.0 |
19 | Bridgman | 130.0 |
20 | White Pigeon | 132.3 |
21 | Plymouth Christian Academy | 154.5 |
22 | Whitmore Lake | 162.8 |
23 | Maple City Glen Lake | 164.3 |
24 | Leland | 170.3 |
25 | Lutheran HS Westland | 179.7 |