Alright, time to get started on these State Previews. Everyone should be familiar with my cross country work, but to summarize, the main philosophy I have there is twofold:
Different courses and conditions alter times
One race isn’t enough to analyze, one must look to the whole picture, with more weight toward recent performances
I’m bringing a bit of that same flavor to these previews. For most events, I’ll chart an athlete’s top-five marks and their performances in May. Those two stats should give a picture what an athlete can do when they truly bring it and should give a glimpse into their current condition. I’ll also look to common competitions, head-to-head matchups, which should control for various weather conditions that impact performance and show how athletes compare against one another when toeing the same line.
The difference between track and the cross country predictions is that for cross, I have formulae that take those factors and spit out projections. For these previews, I’ll have my own predictions that are based on my own eye test. Those will be edited in on Wednesday or Thursday next week, mainly to reduce any sort of pressure, but also to gather any last second info. I’ve been told that last year’s predictions both motivated and gave confidence and those are my intentions once again. I wish that everyone has the day of their life at the State Finals. It’d be quite boring if I was correct on everything. Please prove these wrong, unless I have you first.
Also in need of note – keeping on top and staying up to date of track stats is impossible, especially with my lack of programming knowledge and athletic.net’s password protection against web crawling. These pole vault stats were compiled as of Sunday. I know there are results past that date and I know that’ll be the case for other events over these next 10 days. But we’re all armed with the same tools, we can all gravitate to the same site and dive deep into results.
No doubt they’ll pick up points for their Rocks squad, but in which order will the Stewarts finish? To win the KLAA, it was Emma. To win Region 6, it was Katie. On a quiet Livonia night yesterday, the two tied. They’re both peaking at the right time, throwing up high 11’s and above throughout the past few weeks. Who hung with them last night and is progressing rapidly? Dexter’s Raiden Kipfmiller, who along with Rockford’s Maiya Corrigan, are the two best freshman vaulters in the State and among the best in the country. And while all this back and forth is occurring in metro Detroit, Brooke Bowers is busy on her undefeated, state-leading (12’6”) season. She was third here last year, only bested by two seniors.
It’s championship time and it’s defending champ time. At this point in 2022, Jordyn Wright’s best was 11’4. She’s already soared above that mark three times, two of those in recent wins at Region 16 and the SEC White Championship. She’ll have adversaries right there though. Looking to reach one spot higher is Claire Agnew, who’s had her three best vaults in her last three meets. The Shiawasee senior only has one loss on her resume, to Allison Shelton, who on that same day where Wright captured the conference crown, grabbed one of her own in the FML meet, matching Wright’s state lead.
Learning with each other, achieving with each other, and going head-to-head has no doubt helped West Catholic’s Ally Olszewski and Heidi Schulten. The two have combined for no worse than top-4 in any of their meets thus far this spring. The burning question is – can anyone split the two apart? Addison Trierwiler might be a candidate, having reached 9’9” in wins at Region 30 and Alma Panther. Emma Wildt is another great candidate, with big ups in her resume, three 10’+ vaults while competing on the south side of the State.
For much of the year, Payton Haynes had been the class of the division, through Regionals the only girl to clear 10’. She’s been mega consistent too, each of her finals being above 9’. In the time between my compiling of these stats and writing this post, Rebecca Moeller has vaulted 10’3 to grab the state lead. She’s come on strong in the past two weeks, climbing over 9’6 on four separate occasions.
He just began his season recently, but Dolan Gonzales has been quick to reach awe-inspiring heights. His 16’1” to win Region 5 is the state lead, and that follows his 15’7” to win the SEC Red, which at the time was the state lead. Clark Sheldon won the previous meet on the Saline track, Golden Triangle, over a bunch of qualifiers, including Liam Kinney, another one who’s held the state lead. And over on the West Side, Joey Bonacci just got done demolishing the competition in Region 2, finishing over a foot ahead of a ton of state qualifiers.
Sandwiched between Dolan Gonzales’s state leads were a few days when David Conrad held the distinction, his 15’9 still one of the better marks across the entire state. He’s looking to improve from his 4th place finish a year ago. Sam Vesperman is also looking to move up, the sophomore continuing his undefeated season with a personal best and win in Region 16. We’ve had a multitude of battles between athletes clearing 13’, a mark that will put you in the mix for All-State. Robby Slaughter over Lucas Inosencio in Region 15, David Dana over Slaughter and Nico Lopez at Alma Panther.
At the outset, it appears to be a three-horse race. After placing 3rd indoor at SVSU, Chase Battani has been on a roll, winning everything in sight and clearing 14’ twice. The only person to best his 14’6” has been Tryce Tokar, who shot up to 14’8.25” in a Region 30 win, the sophomore rounding into form as he looks to defend his title. Jack Borgman is about as consistent as you’ll see, hitting at least 13’ in his last 9 competitions.
Steven Martin and Isaac Bowden enter on a roll. Martin has been undefeated for the past six weeks and vaulted 14’ to win Region 35. Bowden has been over 13’6 in three of his past five competitions. Logan Malloy is a newcomer, adding a foot and entering the 13’s. And the MSAC is vaulting paradise with Cooper Bolton, Isaiah Biers, and Brayden Clark going head to head in their jamborees. Bolton has won one, so has Biers, and Clark beat Biers in Region 37. But don’t count Isaiah out, that defending championship experience could come in handy.
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 