2025 Championship Projections: Greater Lansing and Macomb County

With the coming of championship season comes race projections!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

At the regional level, the projections were pretty darn accurate. I gave qualifying odds for the top-3 spots and ended up thinking I’d be accurate on 198 of the teams, the final total ended up being 197. The State level was a different story, where a few wholly unexpected teams hit the podium. I’ve changed a few aspects to hopefully capture the latter and remain predictive on the former.

Anyhow, both Macomb County and Greater Lansing were kind enough to publish the entries for their meets, which makes my work a little easier. I know the world doesn’t revolve around making my life easier, but this is a side project on top working full-time and actually training for a race (Bigfoot 20 Mile in Ohio, working my way toward entering the world of ultras).

GREATER LANSING

Awards are given to the top-5 teams and top-30 individuals.

Proj. Place	Girls	Proj. Score	Win %	Top 5 %
1	Lansing Catholic	79	65	95+
2	Okemos	87	35	95+
3	Grand Ledge	166		83
4	Pewamo-Westphalia	176		83
5	DeWitt	183		71
6	Howell	207		33
7	Mason	210		18
8	East Lansing	222		12
9	Olivet	258
10	Charlotte	278
11	St. Johns	301
12	Haslett	313
13	Williamston	372
14	Leslie	398
15	Bath	449
16	Ionia	482
17	Fowlerville	492
18	Holt	518
19	Lansing Christian	554
20	Alma	555

Proj. Place	Grade	Girls	Team
1	10	Rachel Smith	Okemos
2	11	Ava Schafer	St. Johns
3	12	Hailey Creisher	Leslie
4	12	October Harns	Okemos
5	12	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge
6	11	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia
7	10	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids
8	11	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic
9	10	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet
10	12	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns
11	10	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic
12	10	Ruby Petee	Mason
13	9	Calista George	Pewamo-Westphalia
14	9	Anna Drauer	Lansing Catholic
15	9	Lily Britton	Olivet
16	10	Jorga Wooledge	Mason
17	10	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic
18	12	Fiona Whitmyer	Okemos
19	12	Lydia Jagger	Grand Ledge
20	12	Elizabeth Schafer	Okemos
21	9	Olive DiMassa	Howell
22	11	Avery Silvas	Charlotte
23	10	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic
24	11	Colette Charchut	Haslett
25	10	Abby Crandell	Owosso
26	10	Emily Barrie	East Lansing
27	9	Brooklyn Takagishi	DeWitt
28	9	Brooke Wallace	Howell
29	9	Ava Montero	Grand Ledge
30	11	Morgan Allen	Mason
31	12	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic
32	11	Anna Halliday	Howell
33	12	Anna Poppema	Bath
34	11	Jenna Keilen	Pewamo-Westphalia
35	10	Kaila Cravotta	East Lansing
36	9	Cecilia Kelly	Williamston
37	9	Scarlett Popielarski	East Lansing
38	10	Mya Bower	Okemos
39	10	Rory Doepker	DeWitt
40	12	Isabella Taber	DeWitt
41	11	Sophia Schafer	Williamston
42	10	Emma Cook	DeWitt
43	12	Emily Agnew	DeWitt
44	10	Grace Mingerink	DeWitt
45	12	Emily Peters	Olivet
46	9	Dakota Budd	Haslett
47	12	Maddy Takagishi	DeWitt
48	11	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic
49	10	Margaret Guerra-Harrison	Leslie
50	9	Jovie Overkamp	Ionia

Proj. Place	Boys	Proj. Score	Win %	Top 5 %
1	Grand Ledge	54	87	95+
2	Alma	75	13	95+
3	DeWitt	171		95+
4	East Lansing	172		94
5	Lansing Catholic	192		61
6	Howell	209		28
7	Okemos	216		19
8	Holt	241
9	Owosso	296
10	Haslett	304
11	Williamston	320
12	Pewamo-Westphalia	350
13	Corunna	399
14	Portland	422
15	Leslie	462
16	Mason	487
17	Portland St. Patrick	534
18	St. Johns	553
19	Fowler	567
20	Ionia	581

Proj. Place	Grade	Boys	Team
1	11	Jack MacGregor	Howell
2	12	Ian Morgan	Okemos
3	11	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma
4	12	Thomas Larson	Alma
5	10	Rylen Richey	Grand Ledge
6	12	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge
7	12	Liam Preisser	East Lansing
8	11	Caelan Marsh	Grand Ledge
9	10	Rem Piper	Holt
10	10	Owen Poppema	Bath
11	12	Aiden Marple	DeWitt
12	12	Braylon Lenneman	DeWitt
13	11	Nolan Lounds	Grand Ledge
14	10	Duncan Palmer	Williamston
15	12	Alex McKennon	Grand Ledge
16	12	Adrian Abbott-Wallace	Holt
17	10	Liam Dewitt	Haslett
18	12	Luca Lebron	Alma
19	12	Jackson Gast	East Lansing
20	11	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia
21	12	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg
22	10	Samuel Johnson	Alma
23	11	William Gancer	Stockbridge
24	11	James Tennes	Lansing Catholic
25	12	Andrew Feldpausch	Portland
26	12	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic
27	10	Kilian Boulware-Lopez	East Lansing
28	12	Malcolm Cesario	Okemos
29	10	Alex Weller	Howell
30	9	Nico Lebron	Alma
31	9	Livio Muzzin	DeWitt
32	9	Leonidas Erfourth	Owosso
33	11	Kevin Terpstra	Alma
34	12	Raymond Herek	Williamston
35	11	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic
36	10	Teddy Weber	Williamston
37	11	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie
38	11	Trevon Johnson	Holt
39	11	David DeLand	Howell
40	11	Simon Shutt	Okemos
41	12	Elijah Baltierra	Alma
42	11	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia
43	10	Ben Myers	East Lansing
44	11	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic
45	11	Will Chelotti	DeWitt
46	10	Reece Grafius	Mason
47	12	Quentin Smith	Fowler
48	11	Lincoln Morden	Grand Ledge
49	11	Sawyer Zeman	Haslett
50	12	Reagan Ward	St. Johns

MACOMB COUNTY

These are my entries for the annual MACOMB COUNTY PREDICTION CONTEST

Awards are given to the top-3 teams and top-21 individuals.

Proj. Place	Girls	Proj. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Romeo	21	95+	95+
2	Utica	72		95+
3	Macomb Dakota	115		54
4	Fraser	120		46
5	Utica Eisenhower	154
6	Armada	190
7	Utica Ford	215
8	Macomb Lutheran North	223
9	New Baltimore Anchor Bay	265
10	Macomb L’Anse Creuse North	270

Proj. Place	Grade	Girls	Team
1	11	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo
2	12	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo
3	12	Ella Goodsell	Romeo
4	12	Siene Muraszewski	Utica
5	12	Emmie Clor	Romeo
6	10	Alannah Wessel	MACH Running
7	11	Reese Rosbolt	Romeo
8	11	Alice Foley	Fraser
9	11	Emma Brown	Utica
10	11	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North
11	12	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota
12	11	Maggie Baginski	Utica Eisenhower
13	12	Jacalyn Yakel	Utica Eisenhower
14	10	Gabriella Mercier	Macomb Dakota
15	10	Kylie Brown	Utica
16	12	Kate Molloy	Fraser
17	9	Claire Albrecht	Armada
18	9	Grace Mathers	Macomb Dakota
19	12	Brooke McFarland	Utica
20	10	Ava Knight	Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
21	12	Ava Tow	Utica
22	11	Faith Wessel	MACH Running
23	10	Cassidy Bowers	Austin Catholic
24	10	Codianne Palczewski	Utica
25	12	Abigail Denoyer	Armada
26	9	Audra Krause	New Baltimore Anchor Bay
27	12	Olivia Cereska	Fraser
28	9	Elizabeth Lennon	Unattached
29	12	Gianna D’Angelo	Utica Ford
30	12	Jewel Zschernig	Fraser

Proj. Place	Boys	Proj. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Romeo	41	95+	95+
2	Macomb Dakota	100		95+
3	Fraser	142		44
4	Macomb Lutheran North	149		33
5	Utica Eisenhower	157		10
6	Utica	158		11
7	Warren DeLaSalle	185
8	Utica Ford	209
9	New Baltimore Anchor Bay	244
10	Sterling Heights Stevenson	274

Proj. Place	Grade	Boys	Team
1	12	Owen Perry	Romeo
2	10	Xavier Solgot	Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
3	12	Harper Wesley	Utica
4	11	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North
5	12	Malcolm Richardson	Warren DeLaSalle
6	9	Rio Hrabovsky	Romeo
7	12	Luke Allen	Romeo
8	12	Joseph Kaleto	Macomb Dakota
9	12	James Brickel	Romeo
10	12	Anthony Frei	Utica Eisenhower
11	12	Xavier Roman	Macomb Lutheran North
12	11	Carson Hlavin	Romeo
13	12	Andrew Scheloske	Macomb Dakota
14	12	Drew Pietraszkiewicz	Utica Eisenhower
15	12	Aaron Osterman	New Baltimore Anchor Bay
16	9	Gavin Soviar	Fraser
17	12	Nathan Kafoury	Warren DeLaSalle
18	12	Maxwell Durham	New Haven
19	11	Tyler Williams	Fraser
20	12	Ian Potts	MACH Running
21	10	Federico Moreno-Padilla	Utica Eisenhower
22	10	Logan LaMilza	Macomb Dakota
23	11	Zach Shaffer	Utica Ford
24	10	Mason Pietrykowski	Richmond
25	12	Charlie Curtis	Utica
26	12	Lucas Gizoni	Romeo
27	10	Wesley LaFever	Macomb Dakota
28	10	Jacob Solomon	Utica
29	10	Cameron Martin	Fraser
30	12	Dean Gallucci	Utica Ford