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2026 Championship Projections: Greater Lansing, Macomb County, & More

With the coming of championship season comes race projections. And better than previous weeks, race simulations!

The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.

An explanation from previous years that still holds true:

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, larger meets, and faster meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner TimeTanner RatingTanner Avg.Tanner StDev.
15:30210  
15:45205  
16:00200  
16:15195  
16:301902007.91
MIXCSR TimeMIXCSR RatingMIXCSR Avg.MIXCSR StDev.
16:09197  
16:12196  
16:15195  
16:18194  
16:211931951.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

RaceTanner Avg.Tanner StDevTanner RatingMIXCSR Avg.MIXCSR StDevMIXCSR Rating
12007.9202.11951.6195.6
22007.9196.21951.6194.1
32007.9190.01951.6199.2
42007.9193.41951.6192.5
52007.9206.81951.6195.7
62007.9201.81951.6196.1
72007.9171.61951.6194.9
82007.9189.21951.6195.9
92007.9205.51951.6197.0
102007.9203.81951.6192.6
112007.9192.31951.6196.5
122007.9196.91951.6196.4
132007.9198.51951.6195.6
142007.9203.21951.6194.1
152007.9193.91951.6192.6
162007.9199.31951.6193.2
172007.9208.71951.6194.2
182007.9213.71951.6194.6
192007.9212.61951.6197.1
202007.9206.31951.6193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

With these calculated and simulated, without further ado:

Greater Lansing

Top-5 Teams earn honors
Top-30 Individuals medal

BOYS

Proj. PlaceTeamScoreWin %Top-5 %
1Grand Ledge7095+95+
2Alma11895+
3Lansing Catholic13295+
4East Lansing15379
5Howell15675
6DeWitt17447
7Owosso212
8Haslett245
9Williamston259
10Pewamo-Westphalia293
11Holt294
12Okemos312
13Mason380
14St. Johns439
15Leslie507
16Bath517
17Lansing Waverly533
18Corunna572
19Saranac592
20Laingsburg612
21Lake Odessa Lakewood620
22Portland636
23Fowler656
24Olivet722
25Stockbridge736
26Ionia752
27Lansing Everett757
28Carson City-Crystal782
29Fulton824
30Charlotte836
31Vermontville Maple Valley840
32Eaton Rapids888
33Lansing Eastern892
34Fowlerville948
35St. Louis1007

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Jack MacGregorHowell1.1
211Rylen RicheyGrand Ledge2.6
312Ezekiel BaltierraAlma3.3
412Caelan MarshGrand Ledge4.3
511Kilian Boulware-LopezEast Lansing5.9
611Rem PiperHolt7.4
711Owen PoppemaBath8.4
811Duncan PalmerWilliamston8.9
912Nolan LoundsGrand Ledge9.1
1011Liam DewittHaslett11.9
1112John KowatchPewamo-Westphalia13.1
1212William GancerStockbridge13.9
1312Everett BeachLansing Catholic14.4
1412Téo KrummLansing Catholic14.4
1510Nico LebronAlma17.1
1610Leonidas ErfourthOwosso20.0
1711Isaiah CatesHaslett21.3
1811Alex WellerHowell22.0
199Braysen KramerDeWitt22.1
2012Simon ShuttOkemos22.4
2111Donnie RichmondPortland22.5
2211Samuel JohnsonAlma23.0
2312Kevin TerpstraAlma23.0
2412Dayton VanderMoereGrand Ledge26.7
2512James TennesLansing Catholic27.1
269Spencer SobakOwosso27.5
2712Noah ThelenGrand Ledge27.8
2812Francis AustenPortland St. Patrick28.9
2911Brady RappuhnOwosso29.4
3011Grady RicheyLansing Catholic30.4
3111Teddy WeberWilliamston30.5
3211Grayson DiadiunHowell31.6
3311Toby RegulinskiEast Lansing31.9
3410Livio MuzzinDeWitt33.9
3512Will ChelottiDeWitt35.3
369Brayden KasmarMason37.9
379Colin BranchDeWitt38.4
3811Alejandro NagyEast Lansing38.7
3912Charlie GeorgePewamo-Westphalia39.7
4012Micah CouserGrand Ledge41.3
4111Alec HoySt. Johns45.5
4212Arthur Sawyer IIIEast Lansing45.5
4312Mychael JohnsonEast Lansing46.2
449Ian SchmidtGrand Ledge46.4
459Sterling BurnieDeWitt49.1
4611Langston WaiteEast Lansing49.2
4712Kenneth ManglesLeslie50.7
4812Grant LaphamOkemos51.0
4912Wyatt WernerPewamo-Westphalia51.1
5012Hayden SeleskyLansing Catholic51.8

GIRLS

Proj. PlaceTeamScoreWin %Top-5 %
1Howell987495+
2Lansing Catholic1111695+
3DeWitt124795+
4Mason13695+
5Grand Ledge15695+
6Pewamo-Westphalia19310
7East Lansing1995
8Okemos223
9Williamston242
10Olivet308
11Leslie322
12Haslett332
13Charlotte358
14Holt378
15Fowler474
16Owosso503
17Alma531
18Fowlerville545
19Saranac553
20St. Johns556
21Ionia559
22Bath593
23Laingsburg658
24St. Louis681
25Stockbridge689
26Portland695
27Lansing Christian721
28Fulton742
29Corunna801
30Lansing Waverly807
31Lake Odessa Lakewood896
32Lansing Eastern918
33Lansing Everett1050

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Rachel SmithOkemos1.0
212Ava SchaferSt. Johns2.3
39Clara CookDeWitt3.2
411Tiya FeldpauschOlivet4.1
511Remie EllisEaton Rapids6.2
611Josie BishopLansing Catholic6.5
712Alyssa KramerPewamo-Westphalia7.1
89Annabel BuggiaWilliamston7.4
910Anna DrauerLansing Catholic10.0
1010Lily BrittonOlivet10.0
1110Ava MonteroGrand Ledge12.1
1210Reagan MasonHowell12.7
1310Brooke WallaceHowell13.1
1411Natalie HayesDeWitt15.0
1510Calista GeorgePewamo-Westphalia15.3
1611Lindsey LudwigLansing Catholic16.2
1712Anna HallidayHowell18.1
1811Ruby PeteeMason20.0
1912Morgan AllenMason22.4
2010Olive DiMassaHowell23.0
219Addison FareroMason23.3
229Alaina ErnstHolt24.0
2311Mya BowerOkemos25.1
2411Abby CrandellOwosso26.7
259Ella BahleWilliamston28.2
2612Avery SilvasCharlotte28.5
2710Brooklyn TakagishiDeWitt30.0
2812Anna SoltisDeWitt30.7
2911Kaila CravottaEast Lansing30.8
3012Colette CharchutHaslett32.5
3110Madelynn PattersonOlivet32.9
3211Jorga WooledgeMason32.9
3310Kinsley LoundsGrand Ledge33.5
349Maddie FlynnGrand Ledge33.7
3510Katherine SchaferPewamo-Westphalia34.3
3610Paige ThelenGrand Ledge35.3
3711Emily BarrieEast Lansing36.4
3811Julia WhitePortland St. Patrick38.4
3910Chelsea HembreeHowell40.4
409Annie LloydLansing Catholic40.8
4112Isla McConnellEast Lansing41.4
4210Ellie GroenEast Lansing41.6
4311Isabelle CurrieLansing Catholic43.6
4411Alyssa McFallOkemos43.7
459Payton PackerMason44.5
469Violette GoodrichCharlotte50.5
4711Margaret Guerra-HarrisonLeslie51.0
489Abigail CreisherLeslie51.3
499Clara ThelenFowler51.3
5011Emma CookDeWitt51.9

Macomb County

Consider this my entry for the annual MACOMB COUNTY PREDICTION CONTEST.

Team Awards to the Top-3 Teams
All-County to the Top-21 Individuals

BOYS

Proj. PlaceTeamScoreWin %Top-3 %
1Romeo3495+95+
2Utica11495+
3Macomb Dakota12295+
4Fraser1693
5Utica Eisenhower190
6Anchor Bay194
7L’Anse Creuse North212
8MACH216
9Macomb Lutheran North254
10Warren DeLaSalle278
11Chippewa Valley285
12Sterling Heights Stevenson323
13Utica Ford339
14Armada390
15St. Clair Shores Lakeview391
16New Haven420
17Warren Woods Tower479
18Austin Catholic489
19St. Clair Shores Lake Shore562
20Warren Mott599
21Eastpointe647
22Roseville647
23Warren Lincoln676
24St. Clair Shores South Lake676
25Sterling Heights754

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Xavier SolgotL’Anse Creuse North1.1
211Wesley LaFeverMacomb Dakota2.2
312Joshua MacriMacomb Lutheran North3.1
410Ripley ClorRomeo4.9
510Brayden GoodsellRomeo6.9
610Finley ClorRomeo7.1
710Dax PurdyRomeo7.3
811Federico Moreno-PadillaUtica Eisenhower8.2
912Carson HlavinRomeo9.3
1011Elliot AlefMacomb Lutheran North10.8
1110Logan CichorackiRomeo13.0
1210Gavin SoviarFraser13.0
1311Jacob SolomonUtica15.0
1412Brandon ZiehmerAnchor Bay15.0
1512Chase MalloryMacomb Dakota15.1
1610Dallas RiceRomeo16.7
1711Sebastian AzarAnchor Bay16.7
1812Jaron OsanaiyeSterling Heights Stevenson16.9
1911Mason PietrykowskiRichmond18.0
2010Gavin BowersAustin Catholic19.9
2111Cameron MartinFraser22.0
2212Sebastian MorrisonWarren DeLaSalle22.4
2311Terry TankersleyUtica23.3
2411Hunter OrshallUtica23.7
2512Lucien LamotheWarren DeLaSalle24.6
2612Tyler WilliamsFraser25.5
2710Colin DwyerUtica27.5
2811Cameron OsterbeckL’Anse Creuse North29.6
2910Matteo PerainoUtica30.3
3011Garrett PottsMACH30.8
3111Jayden GeliosMacomb Dakota31.2
3210Lain AustinUtica32.0
3311Doug GrishkevichNew Haven33.9
3412Nathan PerezMACH35.5
3510Jacob RomanoMacomb Dakota36.9
3611Jeremiah JonesWarren Woods Tower38.8
3712Joseph NowickiUtica Eisenhower39.1
3812Grady FriedmannChippewa Valley39.4
3911Brody KochanskiMacomb Dakota40.6
409Brendan KingAnchor Bay40.9
4112Leo KondziolkaChippewa Valley41.3
429Nicholas LountUtica44.0
4311Connor TwardeskyUtica Ford45.8
4410Gavin ComerfordL’Anse Creuse North46.1
4510Carson ZiehmerAnchor Bay47.2
4612Andrew UrbenMACH48.1
4711John (Jack) FrabisUtica Eisenhower48.5
4811Sawyer RothUtica Eisenhower51.3
4911Bennett OgilvyUtica Ford52.6
5010Colin MaurerMACH53.1

GIRLS

Proj. PlaceTeamScoreWin %Top-3 %
1Romeo528695+
2Utica621095+
3Macomb Dakota69495+
4Macomb Lutheran North132
5Armada173
6Fraser193
7Utica Eisenhower199
8Anchor Bay209
9Sterling Heights Stevenson261
10L’Anse Creuse North289
11Chippewa Valley311
12Utica Ford328
13Warren Mott351
14Warren Regina352
15MACH397
16Warren Woods Tower475
17St. Clair Shores Lakeview543
18New Haven553
19Richmond576
20Warren Cousino589
21St. Clair Shores Lake Shore605
22Roseville627
23Sterling Heights717

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
111Gabriella MercierMacomb Dakota1.6
211Alannah WesselRomeo1.6
312Reese RosboltRomeo3.1
49Claire CubittUtica4.4
510Grace MathersMacomb Dakota6.1
69Molly SarrachRomeo6.1
711Kylie BrownUtica7.3
812Emma BrownUtica9.4
910Clare McCloskeyUtica Eisenhower9.5
1011Codianne PalczewskiUtica9.9
1112Samantha WhitlamMacomb Lutheran North10.9
1211Chloe BorightMacomb Lutheran North11.5
1312Alice FoleyFraser14.4
1410Evelyn ClancyMacomb Dakota15.5
1510Claire AlbrechtArmada16.8
1612Faith WesselRomeo17.0
1711Cassidy BowersAustin Catholic17.5
1812Kaitlyn RizzoMacomb Dakota19.0
199Aubrie SchuttL’Anse Creuse North19.4
2010Jelena OlechowskiUtica Eisenhower20.4
219Elena WasilevichUtica Eisenhower21.9
229Faith HammerFraser22.7
2312Emma ReimerNew Haven24.0
2412Maddie LeslieAnchor Bay25.7
2510Elizabeth MannSterling Heights Stevenson26.0
269Layla TedderArmada27.5
2711Madeline MarchwinskiRomeo28.1
2811Lucy GumpMacomb Lutheran North29.7
2912Lilianna PeaceChippewa Valley30.4
3012Lydia ScallyRomeo30.9
3112Aubrey RizzoMacomb Dakota31.0
3210Kamille FitzpatrickArmada31.1
3310Laela D’JohnUtica32.3
3411Ava KnightL’Anse Creuse North33.9
3511Layla GendernelleMacomb Dakota34.3
3611Natalie VertRomeo35.7
3712Caleigh FriedmannChippewa Valley36.6
3811Nicole LuckaAnchor Bay36.7
3912Lily OrtegaUtica Ford39.7
4012Evelyn BuckleyMacomb Lutheran North40.6
4112Mary WrightAnchor Bay41.5
4211Madison MannSterling Heights Stevenson42.3
4310Angela FrancoWarren Mott42.6
4411Kayla RopelewskiFraser42.6
4510Audra KrauseAnchor Bay46.4
4610Ariana MacriMacomb Lutheran North46.6
4712Helena ReiffArmada47.9
4810Chloe MuirheadMacomb Dakota48.1
4910Juliana NicodemiMACH50.4
5011Eva StuckeyWarren Mott51.1

GMAA

a.net page has no listing of who gets which award, so I just listed team win %’s

BOYS

Proj. PlaceTeamScoreWin %
1Muskegon Western Michigan Christian6067
2Whitehall6432
3Montague89
4Fruitport130
5Muskegon Oakridge138
6Muskegon Mona Shores159
7Holton178
8Muskegon Reeths-Puffer192
9North Muskegon213
10Muskegon250
11Ravenna280
12Muskegon Catholic Central298

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Robert Jazwinski IIIWhitehall1.0
212Bryce FalbeMuskegon Oakridge3.0
311Christian PavligeFruitport3.2
411Rex PumfordWhitehall4.4
510Wesley MairMontague5.3
611Nolan KesslerMontague6.1
712Owen SytsemaMuskegon Western Michigan Christian6.1
812Barrett NanceNorth Muskegon9.4
912Jayden MuellerMuskegon Oakridge10.2
1012Eli MorseMuskegon Western Michigan Christian10.3
1112Josiah ScholmaMuskegon Western Michigan Christian10.8
1211Sam HwangMuskegon Western Michigan Christian11.8
1311Dylan WinskasFruitport11.8
1410Ian DennisWhitehall14.6
1511Keannan MarrHolton15.2
1611Jackson AndersonMuskegon Catholic Central16.3
1710Scout FreiheitWhitehall18.1
1810Anthony LambersMuskegon18.9
1910Jonathan MuellerMontague24.2
2010Micah ScholmaMuskegon Western Michigan Christian24.8
219Ezra ScholmaMuskegon Western Michigan Christian25.2
2210Mason ShanafeltHolton25.8
2312Kole NicholsHolton25.8
2412Alex WinczewskiWhitehall26.3
2510Lucas CrozierMuskegon Mona Shores26.4

GIRLS

Proj. PlaceTeamScoreWin %
1Fruitport5081
2Muskegon Mona Shores595
3Whitehall6014
4Muskegon Western Michigan Christian83
5Muskegon Reeths-Puffer103
6Muskegon Oakridge196
7Montague198
8Ravenna236
9North Muskegon249

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Zoe GermanFruitport1.1
212Leah SnellerMuskegon Western Michigan Christian2.2
310Ryleigh AlderinkHolton2.8
412Gabrielle ChevezWhitehall4.8
511Peyhton BeardsleyFruitport5.0
611Ashlyn HornessMuskegon Mona Shores8.2
79Hope GordonMuskegon Reeths-Puffer9.2
89Madison HeuscheleWhitehall10.2
99Harper RobertsMuskegon Reeths-Puffer10.3
1012Tatum HemmerlyMuskegon Mona Shores10.4
119Madison (Madi) HeuscheleWhitehall10.7
1210Claire KohleyFruitport12.7
1312Hailey ParkerMuskegon Mona Shores14.1
1410Emilie GreeneMuskegon Mona Shores14.3
1510Kyla ZuidemaMuskegon Western Michigan Christian15.7
1612Rochelle LiuMuskegon Western Michigan Christian16.0
1712Reese HesseWhitehall16.3
1810Aynsley MerkinsFruitport17.4
1911Hailey HeistandFruitport17.5
2011Riley BordeauxMuskegon Reeths-Puffer18.9
219Madison DudleyMuskegon Mona Shores19.7
2212Lauren HallMuskegon Mona Shores20.6
2311Kassie SappWhitehall23.8
2411Kinley EikenberryMuskegon Mona Shores23.9
259Lena StuderMuskegon Western Michigan Christian26.1

Lenawee County

Awards to Top-3 Teams
Medals to Top-20 Individuals

BOYS

Proj. PlaceTeamScoreWin %Top-3 %
1Adrian3095+95+
2Blissfield5795+
3Tecumseh5895+
4Sand Creek136
5Hudson138
6Clinton141
7Adrian Madison206
8Onsted216
9Lenawee Homeschool252
10Addison272

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
110Parker SmithAdrian2.5
211Eli MorrisTecumseh3.1
312Carter FennerAdrian3.4
411Michael WeidmayerBlissfield3.6
511Noah SillsBlissfield4.2
611Easton CoscarelliAdrian5.7
712Landin FisherAdrian5.9
811Harrison StamperTecumseh9.3
910Haiden BennettClinton9.5
1011Dempsey BarrettTecumseh9.5
1111Carson ScholzTecumseh11.9
1211Lucas ZecknerAdrian12.3
1310Blake AubeHudson13.7
1410Blake RootSand Creek14.5
1510Bryson PooleyBlissfield15.8
1612Silas DanielsSand Creek16.5
1710Cameron JordanBlissfield16.7
1812Kadan CristAdrian18.0
1912Kaleb StutzmanBlissfield18.2
2011Jacob TatsakAdrian Lenawee Christian19.4
2111Brady BillsBlissfield21.2
2212Nicklas HolmesOnsted23.0
2310Haven KohlrussHudson23.9
2411John VerlindeAdrian Madison25.7
2512Edward HedrickAdrian25.7

GIRLS

Proj. PlaceTeamScoreWin %Top-3 %
1Adrian3195+95+
2Blissfield4695+
3Tecumseh7195+
4Clinton122
5Onsted156
6Adrian Madison183
7Hudson187
8Lenawee Homeschool190
9Sand Creek191

Proj. PlaceGradeNameTeamAvg. Place
112Ayda SkeelsAdrian1.1
211Madison PettyAdrian2.0
312Anna HallettBlissfield3.3
411Karina Mihai-GrammesAdrian4.2
59Ellie SillsBlissfield5.6
69Alexis RichardsAdrian6.5
711Virginia BarrettTecumseh7.8
811Ella ClausClinton8.5
912Kaleea BraunBlissfield8.6
109Maisen SchaedlerHudson10.2
119Stylar RossOnsted11.9
1210Opal EnglishTecumseh13.4
1310Mollie YeagerBlissfield14.4
1412Maya WhelanTecumseh14.5
159Rose MorenoBlissfield14.9
1612Haley RucinskiTecumseh16.1
1710Josslyn HandyClinton17.3
1811Revan RickerBlissfield17.9
1911Klair BakerAdrian17.9
2011Morgan McMichaelTecumseh21.6
2112Camryn NowakTecumseh22.1
229Isabelle StutzmanAdrian22.7
2312London LandiniTecumseh22.7
249Samarah HuffmanAdrian23.4
259Katelynn WelldayClinton24.5