Author: mixcspeedratings

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest average score to highest average score
Average Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Place Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top-Ten % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

GIRLS TEAM

Let’s give a shoutout to Romeo. It truly has been a magical few years over in the upper reaches of Macomb County. Back-to-back state titles, a great showing in Oregon, even a runner-up finish in 2022. This fall, the MAC Red title AGAIN, the Macomb County title AGAIN, and the Region 9 title AGAIN. Guaresimo, Clor, Goodsell, Hrabovsky, Rosbolt – these five have sure presided over some memorable years. One final run together in the red n’ white uniforms, that should be special.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	87	1st-2nd
2	Romeo	147	1st-4th
3	Brighton	201	2nd-8th
4	Holland West Ottawa	212	2nd-8th
5	Hudsonville	240	3rd-10th
6	Northville	246	3rd-11th
7	Jenison	277	3rd-13th
8	Traverse City West	284	4th-14th
9	Ann Arbor Skyline	304	4th-16th
10	Rockford	309	4th-15th
11	Hartland	327	6th-17th
12	Okemos	330	6th-18th
13	Rochester Adams	350	9th-18th
14	Portage Central	363	9th-19th
15	Saline	369	6th-21st
16	Traverse City Central	392	9th-22nd
17	Rochester	392	11th-21st
18	Novi	405	11th-22nd
19	Zeeland East	437	12th-24th
20	Woodhaven Brownstown	451	15th-24th
21	Utica	454	13th-25th
22	Macomb Dakota	500	17th-26th
23	White Lake Lakeland	526	20th-26th
24	Clarkston	533	19th-27th
25	Ann Arbor Huron	549	20th-27th
26	Livonia Churchill	565	21st-27th
27	Salem	673	25th-27th

In any other year, the Bulldogs would be the Division 1 favorite, except 2025. Ann Arbor Pioneer has assembled one of the better teams in the country. They’re led by one of the better runners in the country, Natasza Dudek. Her followers have ripped fast times, three other girls busting through into the 17’s. They’ve added 11^th graders, freshmen, each addition bringing forth more quickness. The Pioneers are so deep that you could likely assemble their JV squad and be a favorite to make it out of most regionals. Thus, they are the Division 1 favorite, but I still can’t discount the championship mettle of Romeo.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Ann Arbor Pioneer	95	95+	95+
2	Romeo	5	79	95+
3	Brighton		14	95+
4	Holland West Ottawa		5	95+
5	Hudsonville			95+
6	Northville			91
7	Jenison			77
8	Traverse City West			76
9	Ann Arbor Skyline			60
10	Rockford			53
11	Hartland			37
12	Okemos			39
13	Rochester Adams			17
14	Portage Central			12
15	Saline			21
16	Traverse City Central			10
17	Rochester
18	Novi
19	Zeeland East
20	Woodhaven Brownstown
21	Utica
22	Macomb Dakota
23	White Lake Lakeland
24	Clarkston
25	Ann Arbor Huron
26	Livonia Churchill
27	Salem

Two programs one also can’t discount are Holland West Ottawa and Brighton. The Panthers and Bulldogs are seemingly always present in the top-ten lists and as podium contenders. Each has the possibility of bringing home a trophy. West Ottawa is carried by their strength through four, that quad of quickness sprinting through the Otsego course with times under 18:30. Brighton is a tad weaker through four, but picks up places from their 5^th spot, such as DeWitt Regional where all five scorers were right near 19-flat or faster.

BOYS TEAM

Winning once is hard enough, three years in a row is a dynasty. In Michigan history, plenty of programs have a three-year streak. Only a few extend it beyond three. If my quick research is correct, only three boys’ teams have done so: Dexter from 2002-2006, Charlevoix from 1987-1991, and Dearborn from 1927-1930. For Northville, a chance at history awaits, but the competition is gonna make it tough.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Northville	156	1st-7th
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	173	1st-7th
3	Kalamazoo Central	204	1st-11th
4	Midland	225	2nd-10th
5	Lowell	231	1st-13th
6	Brighton	240	2nd-12th
7	Grand Ledge	263	2nd-15th
8	Highland-Milford	275	1st-15th
9	Clarkston	293	4th-16th
10	Ann Arbor Skyline	311	3rd-18th
11	Caledonia	320	3rd-19th
12	Traverse City West	322	4th-19th
13	Jenison	346	8th-19th
14	Romeo	351	7th-19th
15	Salem	354	7th-20th
16	Saline	355	6th-21st
17	Plymouth	393	8th-23rd
18	Woodhaven Brownstown	410	10th-23rd
19	Grand Haven	437	10th-26th
20	Rochester	463	15th-25th
21	Detroit Catholic Central	486	15th-26th
22	Livonia Churchill	506	17th-26th
23	Macomb Dakota	513	16th-27th
24	Hudsonville	519	18th-27th
25	White Lake Lakeland	519	17th-27th
26	Oxford	575	20th-27th
27	Utica Eisenhower	633	23rd-27th

Ann Arbor Pioneer will likely provide the stiffest test, but Kalamazoo Central and Lowell both have runners with the ability to make up a state title squad. At Portage, that stiffest test came to fruition, as the Pioneers dominated up front, only needing to score three. Then their depth held serve, which led to a runaway victory. The Mustangs were missing runners from their lineup, but there are no asterisks in cross country, you win or lose with the toes that touch the line. BothKC and Lowell hung with the top-two teams through their 3^rd-4^th runners, but didn’t have the depth needed in the oppressive conditions. Both squads have reason for optimism, as the Giants were without Colby Bartells, who just laid down a 16:24 personal best at Region 3. The Red Arrows didn’t get the greatest race from Cody Bromley, but Bromley has returned with strong efforts, three straight races in the mid-16’s.

The formulas for each of these teams are strikingly similar: a very strong top-2, then who has the best next three? Up front, Ann Arbor Pioneer will almost assuredly have the lowest score. Kamari Ronfeldt and Beckett Crooks are among the top-5, perhaps even the top-3 runners in the entire state. The projections then have Northville, Kalamazoo Central, followed by Lowell.

The depth will decide the fate of who hoists trophies. Lowell, Pioneer, and Northville all seem equal at their 5^th spot. Midland, who I haven’t mentioned, likely has the strongest depth in the field (and they’re consistent, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chemics slide onto the podium with their constant steady efforts). Northville has a bit more to work with, as Manny Coates and Colton Blackburn could each step up.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Northville	46	63	95+
2	Ann Arbor Pioneer	20	50	95+
3	Kalamazoo Central	14	28	94
4	Midland		9	95+
5	Lowell	10	17	83
6	Brighton		8	88
7	Grand Ledge		5	75
8	Highland-Milford		6	65
9	Clarkston			55
10	Ann Arbor Skyline			47
11	Caledonia			39
12	Traverse City West			41
13	Jenison			20
14	Romeo			23
15	Salem			23
16	Saline			28
17	Plymouth			14
18	Woodhaven Brownstown			5
19	Grand Haven			6
20	Rochester
21	Detroit Catholic Central
22	Livonia Churchill
23	Macomb Dakota
24	Hudsonville
25	White Lake Lakeland
26	Oxford
27	Utica Eisenhower

To make a long story short, if the teams are evenly matched later in the field, I’d expect Pioneer to prevail. In the case that the Northville/Lowell/KC depth has moved ahead of Pioneer’s, either of the three can win. Northville has more to work with than the latter two teams. And a bit of experience on their side.

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

Even her non-descript races are noteworthy. They’re all wins. But some are just 16:47 wins in the SEC Championship. Or 16:16 jaunts through Lake Erie. Nevermind, they’re all impressive and all indicative of one of the better runners we’ve seen roll through these Michigan courses. Natasza Dudek has continued her upward track through her descending times. She entered the season as the top returner from the 2024 race and from a track season where she earned top-4 spots in the D1 1600m & 3200m, to go along with a runner-up finish in the New Balance 5000m.

She’s started her sophomore year on another level, hovering around the 17’s early (a minute faster than comparable races from 2024), before unleashing a 16:29 at Jackson. Unsatisfied with a mid-16 effort, a week later she was contending with an improbable barrier, finally crossing the Otsego line in 16:11. She gapped the field in the Portage heat by over 35 seconds. Each test has brought forth results of time and major margins.

Beyond Dudek, this field is deep and full of youth. With optimal conditions, I can see scenarios where up to 20 girls are sub-18.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	10	Natasza Dudek	Ann Arbor Pioneer
2	10	Rachel Smith	Okemos
3	11	Annie Hrabovsky	Romeo
4	10	Sienna Klemmer	Ann Arbor Pioneer
5	10	Emilia Garces	Midland Dow
6	11	El McMahan	Rochester Adams
7	11	Maddie Lindley	Holly
8	11	Cassie Karasinski	Hudsonville
9	9	Keira Von Blon	Ann Arbor Pioneer
10	11	Tessa Mascari	Traverse City West
11	12	Natalia Guaresimo	Romeo
12	10	Adalyn Raab	Zeeland East
13	12	Lydia LaMarra	Brighton
14	12	Lilah Yoder	Forest Hills Central
15	12	Ella Goodsell	Romeo
16	9	Alexandra Scappaticci	Northville
17	10	Ainsley Kelm	Portage Northern
18	12	Ava Porras	Holland West Ottawa
19	12	Hana Boggess	Ann Arbor Pioneer
20	9	Grace Snyder	Hudsonville
21	11	Collette Wierks	Holland West Ottawa
22	11	Paige McMeans	Jenison
23	12	Ella Abraham	Rochester
24	12	October Harns	Okemos
25	10	Savannah Staton	Saline
26	12	Elliana Neuer	Hartland
27	12	Leah Corby	Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
28	12	Siene Muraszewski	Utica
29	9	Jessica Soldan	Rochester Adams
30	11	Daisy Cox	Rockford
31	9	Kaitlyn Berg	Midland
32	12	Aviana Skinner	Grand Ledge
33	10	Ella Lorenz	Brighton
34	11	Katelynn Egli	Novi
35	11	Lucia Lachapelle	Northville
36	12	Olivia Stacy	Portage Northern
37	10	Morgan Sanders	Rockford
38	9	Maribelle Kofahl	Ann Arbor Huron
39	10	Avery Scott	Portage Central
40	10	Mary Dolbow	Holland West Ottawa
41	12	Ava Lawrence	East Kentwood
42	10	Charlotte Jones	Rochester
43	12	Gracelin Martin	Greenville
44	10	Lucia Llanes	Ann Arbor Skyline
45	9	Giada Mills	Beverly Hills Groves
46	10	Gracie Carlisle	Portage Central
47	11	Chloe Purwin	Hudsonville
48	10	Madeline Aleisa	Jenison
49	12	Lilli Schlack	Saline
50	11	Ava Goodman	Hartland
51	9	Grace Meyers	Bay City Western
52	12	Juliet Lewis	Brighton
53	12	Emmie Clor	Romeo
54	9	Abigail Deering	Rochester Adams
55	11	Lyla Dowling	Holland West Ottawa
56	9	Lexie Snyder	Hudsonville
57	11	Lizzie Wernimont	Ann Arbor Pioneer
58	12	Abby Veit	Traverse City West
59	12	Leena Shelgikar	Ann Arbor Huron
60	10	Julia Bambach	Holly
61	9	Hailey Sieler	Forest Hills Central
62	11	Becca Van Lent	Ann Arbor Skyline
63	9	Cecelia Jacobson	Traverse City Central
64	12	Audrey Hamilton	Troy
65	9	Audrey Grosteffon	Temperance Bedford
66	10	Caralyn Elkins	Zeeland West
67	12	Courtney Lince	Brighton
68	12	Mackenzie Dicken	Plymouth
69	12	Payton Lamb	Traverse City West
70	11	Nina Moore	Ann Arbor Pioneer
71	10	Alexandra Green	Birmingham Seaholm
72	11	Isla Tharp	Ann Arbor Skyline
73	11	Madeleine Hengeveld	Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills
74	11	Maya Pletzer	White Lake Lakeland
75	10	Paige Rohda	Berkley
76	10	Jillian Lewakowski	Rockford
77	12	Cianah Budnik-Ramos	Grand Haven
78	10	Charley McKay	Woodhaven Brownstown
79	11	Reese Rosbolt	Romeo
80	12	Selena White	Brighton
81	10	Jaclyn Charbauski	Forest Hills Northern
82	12	Annabelle Beloiu	Northville
83	10	Lila Edison	Ann Arbor Skyline
84	11	Alice Foley	Fraser
85	10	Gabriella Mercier	Macomb Dakota
86	12	Willa Prinsen	Forest Hills Northern
87	10	Ruby Petee	Mason
88	12	Kierra Magner	Farmington
89	12	Samantha Langolf	Port Huron Northern
90	10	Adelynn Turck	Saline
91	12	Sophia Nunnery	Hartland
92	10	Jorga Wooledge	Mason
93	11	Katelyn Parrish	Farmington
94	10	Emily Truszkowski	Traverse City Central
95	9	Brynn Somers	Northville
96	9	Emma Storey	Jenison
97	12	Rianna Radulescu	Livonia Churchill
98	9	Laura Forsyth	Ann Arbor Pioneer
99	12	Lidia Clancy	Macomb Dakota
100	10	Kelly Comfort	Traverse City Central

The girls All-State race is a bit more tightly wound than others on the day, with 50 girls in legitimate running for a chance to get on stage.

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

The boys’ field is a little older, but not by much. The same prediction stands. Before 2023 (Thomas Westphal and Seth Norder) and 2024 (Jack Bidwell and TJ Hansen), it was rare for two boys to drop under 15:00 in the same State Final race. In 2025, that possibility exists again. Both Beckett Crooks and Kamari Ronfeldt have done so in multiple races this year. There are candidates to join the two from all across the D1 landscape – Andrew Wright, Kyle O’Rourke, Jack MacGregor, Aiden Pengelly, Caden Livermore, amongst a few others.

Ronfeldt and Crooks are probably the favorites, each with legitimate arguments. Crooks has the racing savvy and winning experience, conquering this spring’s 3200m with a stunning final lap. Ronfeldt owns the fastest time of the season and the most impressive performance, his 14:50, 27-second romp over the Portage field during the hottest time of the day.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Kamari Ronfeldt	Ann Arbor Pioneer
2	12	Beckett Crooks	Ann Arbor Pioneer
3	11	Caden Livermore	Grandville
4	11	Jack MacGregor	Howell
5	12	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford
6	12	Ian Morgan	Okemos
7	11	Brandon Cloud	Northville
8	11	Luka Hammond	Grand Haven
9	11	Justin Johnson	East Kentwood
10	12	Aiden Pengelly	Canton
11	12	Benjamin Hartigan	Northville
12	12	Jackson Lam	Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
13	11	Samuel Baker	Kalamazoo Central
14	11	Marshall Huhn	Lowell
15	12	Andrew Wright	Kalamazoo Central
16	11	Coen Hill	Dexter
17	12	David Dubeck	Clarkston
18	11	Austin Mercado	Salem
19	12	Lucas LaPointe	Plymouth
20	10	Todd Tobin	Highland-Milford
21	11	Matii Tarekegn	East Kentwood
22	12	Zach Wyderko	Brighton
23	9	Avi Elabed	Lowell
24	11	Jacob Szalay	Saline
25	9	Tommy McCormick	Grand Blanc
26	10	Mourad Algahmi	Dearborn Fordson
27	12	Caleb Keller	Traverse City Central
28	10	Xavier Solgot	Macomb L’Anse Creuse North
29	12	Owen Fisher	Mattawan
30	12	Noah Johnston	Caledonia
31	12	Ryan Barnes	Clarkston
32	12	Max Houvener	Lake Orion
33	12	Thomas DeJesus	Ann Arbor Pioneer
34	12	Ty Billings	Kalamazoo Central
35	10	Rylen Richey	Grand Ledge
36	12	Nathaniel Linden	Troy Athens
37	11	Blake Kulesza	Brighton
38	12	Ethan Hertza	Northville
39	10	Alexander Allen	Alpena
40	11	Cameron Cochran	Midland
41	11	Broden Ladd	Holly
42	10	Brady Glon	Detroit Catholic Central
43	12	Cooper Byrne	Lowell
44	11	Logan Gessford	Midland
45	10	Bennett Snapper	Caledonia
46	12	Marcel Stork	Mattawan
47	12	Jack Steen	Traverse City Central
48	12	Dylan Pascoe	Rochester
49	12	Benjamin Rottier	Grand Ledge
50	12	Evan Owczarek	Rochester
51	12	Pierce Scheffler	Woodhaven Brownstown
52	10	Karson Lewis	Battle Creek Lakeview
53	12	Liam Preisser	East Lansing
54	10	Nikhil Ball	South Lyon East
55	12	Aron Gal	Grand Haven
56	12	Hayden Murray	Traverse City West
57	12	Logan Bellinger	Midland
58	12	Hudson Wojtkowicz	Livonia Churchill
59	11	Trevor Baptist	Novi
60	12	Adrian Abbott-Wallace	Holt
61	12	Owen Perry	Romeo
62	12	Luke James	Midland
63	11	Liam Wierzba	Traverse City West
64	10	Rem Piper	Holt
65	12	Brennan Larusso	Saline
66	11	Josiah Derksen	Rockford
67	12	Harper Wesley	Utica
68	12	Ryan Stojov	Northville
69	11	Bradley Smies	Hudsonville
70	12	Theo Sacks Thomas	Ann Arbor Pioneer
71	12	Finn Gammerath	Walled Lake Northern
72	11	Caelan Marsh	Grand Ledge
73	12	Andrew Worsley	Midland
74	10	Chase Sherman	Jenison
75	12	Gannon Wheeler	Highland-Milford
76	12	Gavin Wilkins	Rochester Adams
77	12	Jacob McDaniel	Grandville
78	12	Luke Allen	Romeo
79	12	Gavin Johns	White Lake Lakeland
80	10	Elliot King	Midland
81	11	Nolan Lounds	Grand Ledge
82	12	Nolan Wenglikowski	Jenison
83	10	Carter Cooke	Jenison
84	11	Matthew Guikema	Ann Arbor Skyline
85	12	Alex McKennon	Grand Ledge
86	10	Finn-Frost Grayson	Traverse City West
87	12	Noah Linstrom	Davison
88	12	Bruno Cifaldi	Ann Arbor Skyline
89	10	Roman Stilwell	Ann Arbor Skyline
90	10	Elijah Demlow	Battle Creek Lakeview
91	10	Oscar Wordell	Rochester Adams
92	12	Evan Cummings	Brighton
93	12	Alex Vazquez	Woodhaven Brownstown
94	10	Lucas Brumo	Livonia Stevenson
95	11	Noah Amori	Wyandotte Roosevelt
96	11	Jack Hanner	Salem
97	10	Martin Gehrke	Ann Arbor Skyline
98	12	Adrian Clarke	Plymouth
99	11	Samuel Batt	Salem
100	12	Gavin Tisch	Detroit Catholic Central

This D1 field is almost as high in variance as the D2 one – approximately 70 boys who could earn a medal.

I’m exhausted. Many of these posts are chart-driven, so I think of it like a scientific textbook. But over 500,000 words have made their way onto the site this year (track, summer, XC), which would add up to about a 2000 page book. The stories have been well-written. Let’s just get out there and race. See you tomorrow!

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest average score to highest average score
Average Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Place Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top-Ten % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

GIRLS TEAM

Every few years, a new generation of girls comes to the forefront in Otsego, bringing forth the possibility of taking hardware home. In the mid-2010’s, the Bulldogs took home a pair of state titles. A few years later, their 2019 squad had a day at the Finals, placing 3^rd. Their frontrunner, Emma Hoffman, surely remembers her runner-up finish from her freshman year, one that led Otsego to another state title. Emma has now gone through the gauntlet and improved mightily, leading once again, this time with a pack of freshmen tailing.

The Bulldogs entered the season as the #1 projected team and they’ve not disappointed. The Bulldogs once again won in the Wolverine Conference, their streak now lasting from 2013-2025. Portage, Regionals, their home invite, and a trek to Minnesota – all wins.

Otsego is one of a strong west side tradition. Of the past 25 team champions, 21 hail from the west coast, Grand Rapids area and below. Present in contention for the podium and the win are a host of other area schools: Holland Christian, Grand Rapids Christian, and Grand Rapids South Christian.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Otsego	108	1st-3rd
2	Holland Christian	136	1st-4th
3	Grand Rapids Christian	158	1st-5th
4	Grand Rapids South Christian	190	2nd-6th
5	Cadillac	268	4th-12th
6	Goodrich	285	4th-13th
7	Coopersville	293	5th-13th
8	East Grand Rapids	298	5th-13th
9	Pinckney	299	5th-13th
10	Linden	340	5th-17th
11	Spring Lake	340	5th-16th
12	Holland	358	5th-19th
13	DeWitt	363	6th-18th
14	Frankenmuth	374	7th-19th
15	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	386	9th-19th
16	St. Joseph	390	10th-19th
17	Freeland	431	11th-24th
18	Shepherd	469	13th-26th
19	Fremont	474	14th-26th
20	Macomb Lutheran North	493	17th-27th
21	Bloomfield Hills Marian	495	16th-26th
22	Sturgis	506	16th-26th
23	Adrian	510	17th-25th
24	Charlotte	517	18th-27th
25	Marysville	547	26th-28th
26	New Boston Huron	553	17th-26th
27	Williamston	635	19th-27th
28	Yale	708	25th-28th

These squads in close proximity, you get many instances of common competitions. A few are fairly recent – Bulldog, Portage, and Region 12. The order of the first two meetups was the same – Otsego in front, Holland Christian, Grand Rapids Christian, then Grand Rapids South Christian. Gaps were found between the former two and the latter two. At Portage, Otsego had it all covered, bringing in the lowest stick and the best 5^th. Holland Christian trailed at nearly every spot, though the margins were as small as you could get. South Christian hung right behind GRC and then at Region 12, moved ahead.

The projections follow this pattern, although they take into account the rest of the season, especially what has occurred throughout the rest of October.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Otsego	73	93	95+
2	Holland Christian	18	68	95+
3	Grand Rapids Christian	8	33	95+
4	Grand Rapids South Christian		6	95+
5	Cadillac			92
6	Goodrich			82
7	Coopersville			79
8	East Grand Rapids			77
9	Pinckney			76
10	Linden			43
11	Spring Lake			39
12	Holland			32
13	DeWitt			26
14	Frankenmuth			19
15	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard			14
16	St. Joseph			10
17	Freeland			7
18	Shepherd
19	Fremont
20	Macomb Lutheran North
21	Bloomfield Hills Marian
22	Sturgis
23	Adrian
24	Charlotte
25	Marysville
26	New Boston Huron
27	Williamston
28	Yale

The three posed questions:

Who has the best fifth?

Most likely Otsego, with upperclasswomen leadership potentially owning those spots. From Portage, it was Rebekah Stachura owning the final scoring spot. Or it could be Skylar Mejeur. Each of the two girls has been in the mid-19’s a bunch this fall.

Who has the best depth?

Holland Christian, followed by Otsego and Grand Rapids Christian. Both the Maroons and Eagles have had seven girls find their way under 19:30. The Bulldogs trail closely behind, with a Taylee Fox firing off PR after PR of late.

Who steers clear of the bubble?

The projections think there will be a high concentration of girls with ratings between 110-120, which I believe will be 19:45-20:15. The projected top-three should have most of their girls ahead of this, with Grand Rapids South Christian perhaps having a few in the mix. Which leads to a bit more certainty from the top-three, but also a Sailor upset if their depth continues what they did at Region 12.

BOYS TEAM

At various points in the past three years, we’ve seen the main contenders make their rise. From East Grand Rapids and Alma, the signs were present a few years back. Continuing in the Pioneer tradition, yet starting off with a stunner, the ’22 East Grand Rapids squad winning the title as an underdog. That team featured a young Jonah Workman, new to the high school scene, but racing as if he’d been here for years. Alma was a bit less known and wasn’t even thought to bring a team to those State Finals. But a few impactful freshmen ensured a spot from a tough Region 15, allowing those 9^th grade Panthers to gain valuable experience that they’ve used over the past few seasons.

 Flint Powers Catholic has been a late comer, the Chargers only qualifying a full team once from 2022-2024. The 2023 squad did and the current contenders feature three of those boys. From last fall to now, the Chargers have improved the most out of any team in D2, perhaps any team in the state. Four boys were sub-4:40 and sub-10:05 in track. Their 4×8 threw down a 7:53, good for 5^th in D2. That spring was a major factor in their #4 pre-season ranking.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Flint Powers Catholic	128	1st-4th
2	East Grand Rapids	138	1st-4th
3	Alma	184	1st-7th
4	Parma Western	244	2nd-11th
5	Grand Rapids Christian	250	2nd-11th
6	Holland Christian	268	3rd-12th
7	Forest Hills Eastern	299	3rd-16th
8	Shepherd	309	4th-16th
9	Allendale	319	5th-15th
10	Fenton	331	5th-18th
11	Otsego	343	5th-19th
12	Pinckney	347	6th-20th
13	DeWitt	375	7th-21st
14	Chelsea	384	8th-21st
15	Adrian	391	8th-22nd
16	Cedar Springs	400	7th-24th
17	Three Rivers	405	7th-25th
18	Richland Gull Lake	412	9th-24th
19	Frankenmuth	413	8th-23rd
20	Petoskey	422	10th-24th
21	Spring Lake	435	10th-25th
22	Detroit Country Day	458	10th-26th
23	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard	477	15th-26th
24	Macomb Lutheran North	490	16th-26th
25	Yale	584	21st-27th
26	St. Clair	586	22nd-27th
27	Coopersville	629	23rd-27th

The three squads occupied a great chunk of the pre-season rankings. Powers continued on their path upward, Alma and East Grand Rapids each ran at a high level before a mid-season meeting at Portage Bluejay (not Portage, that’s rare!). Michigan’s favorite course hosted all three squads in a mini state preview. The Pioneers were missing Workman, although as a D2 contender, he’s easy to slot into the standings. Even in his absence, Flint Powers would’ve won the battle of the trio. The Charger depth was key, 16:15 and 16:24 from the final two scoring spots, around a 20 sec. gap on comparable spots from EGR and 35 sec. before the Panthers.

But one thing a performance like that does is set a mark and make you the hunted. In the past month, East Grand Rapids has won at Portage, the OK White, and Region 12. Alma has won the TVC, placed 2^nd at Greater Lansing, and overwhelmed the Region 14 competition.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Flint Powers Catholic	50	85	95+
2	East Grand Rapids	37	74	95+
3	Alma	9	27	95+
4	Parma Western		6	94
5	Grand Rapids Christian		5	89
6	Holland Christian			89
7	Forest Hills Eastern			66
8	Shepherd			62
9	Allendale			58
10	Fenton			48
11	Otsego			37
12	Pinckney			36
13	DeWitt			18
14	Chelsea			13
15	Adrian			13
16	Cedar Springs			19
17	Three Rivers			19
18	Richland Gull Lake			11
19	Frankenmuth			9
20	Petoskey			5
21	Spring Lake			7
22	Detroit Country Day			6
23	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
24	Macomb Lutheran North
25	Yale
26	St. Clair
27	Coopersville

The three posed questions:

Who has the best 5^th man?

At this point, I think it has to be Flint Powers, with Bluejay as the main piece of evidence.

Who has the best depth?

I’m going with East Grand Rapids. Both Sam Hillary and Thomas Fisher have capabilities of pushing toward the mid-16’s, hitting 16:22 and 16:42 at the OK White Championship.

Who steers clear of the bubble?

One main pack seems like it’ll exist between 16:45-17:10ish and another could be ahead of it between 16:20-16:35ish. These are two spots where athletes may coagulate. Seemingly most entrenched in either are Alma and Flint Powers. East Grand Rapids has athletes either ahead or between the two. Thus, you could see a little more variability with the Panthers and Chargers, a few seconds equaling many points. Every point matters.

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

First, I must mention Ava Schafer. The St. Johns Redwing is the defending champ. I’ve always praised her racing savvy and it appears that her junior has featured many of her same positive characteristics. She’s won five of her seven races, and again slipped into the 17’s with a 17:50 at John Bruder. Last year proved that her best material comes during championship season, PRs coming here and at MITCA. I wouldn’t be shocked if another late-season time descent occurs.

By the numbers and with the results, Emma Hoffman and Katie Berkshire have surged to the front of the D2 standings. Berkshire hasn’t even been ABOVE 18:00 this fall, racing and winning with her typical vigor. She’s unbeaten on the year, with wins coming at Holly (17:37), Bluejay (16:58), and at Region 10 (16:32).

That 16:32 ranks 2^nd in Division 2. In any year other 2023, that would’ve been the best time in Michigan. I know XC isn’t all about time, because with Emma Hoffman occupying the 2^nd fastest slot, winning is of importance too. The Bulldog senior has won a ton over the past two years. Back-to-back victories at home, conference, and regional action. A dominant Portage performance. An impressive D2 gold track double. When given the opportunity to rip it this fall, she has, lowering her Otsego record even further, all the way down to 16:20.

Watching these two compete will be a worthy post-Halloween treat.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Emma Hoffman	Otsego
2	12	Katie Berkshire	Gaylord
3	11	Jaelyn Ray	Pinckney
4	10	Avery Engbers	Holland Christian
5	11	Ava Schafer	St. Johns
6	12	Natalie Foltz	Frankenmuth
7	11	Mia May	Sparta
8	11	Johanna Mulder	Holland
9	11	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake
10	9	Eliza Schwass	Ludington
11	11	Caroline Randall	Hastings
12	11	Ayda Skeels	Adrian
13	12	Marie Gates	Hudsonville Unity Christian
14	12	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian
15	11	Clara Kaczor	Freeland
16	10	Oakley Osterhart	Coopersville
17	11	Annabelle Lowman	Ludington
18	10	Kayla Shellenbarger	Goodrich
19	10	Tiffany DeMaagd	Grand Rapids South Christian
20	12	Lilah Poel	Grand Rapids Christian
21	12	Julia Garcia	Pinckney
22	11	Olivia Weiss	Holland
23	10	Anneliese Passchier	East Grand Rapids
24	9	Alayna Verhage	Otsego
25	10	Mai Nguyen	Plainwell
26	11	Alivia Ottinger	Goodrich
27	12	Elise Barden	Frankenmuth
28	11	Addison Josephson	Linden
29	10	Ana Lovell	Lake Fenton
30	10	Remie Ellis	Eaton Rapids
31	11	Eliana Stob	Holland Christian
32	12	Brooklynn Brown	Cadillac
33	9	Addelyn Sabatke	Otsego
34	12	Alexis Kotkowicz	Spring Lake
35	11	Ella McInerney	Cadillac
36	9	Adelyn Verhage	Otsego
37	11	Zoe Hoekstra	Grand Rapids Christian
38	10	Madison Petty	Adrian
39	12	Ellie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian
40	11	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids
41	12	Miriam Kloha	St. Johns
42	10	Annika Stob	Holland Christian
43	11	Ellery Lampen	Holland Christian
44	12	Linnea Paige	Fremont
45	10	Addison Bixler	Coopersville
46	9	Vittoria Perucchetti	St. Joseph
47	12	Layla Geurink	Holland Christian
48	12	Beatrice Perucchetti	St. Joseph
49	11	Skylar Mejeur	Otsego
50	9	Hailey Kuhn	Cadillac
51	11	Monica Lynn	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
52	12	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern
53	11	Ahna Woltjer	Grand Rapids West Mich. Aviation
54	10	Audrey Kline	St. Joseph
55	9	Lily VanEyk	Grand Rapids South Christian
56	11	Samantha Whitlam	Macomb Lutheran North
57	10	Eva Lindstrom	Grand Rapids Christian
58	11	Lucy Waalkes	Grand Rapids Christian
59	9	Breslyn Klein	Coopersville
60	12	Annika TerBeek	Grand Rapids Christian
61	11	Mackenzie Huizenga	Holland Christian
62	11	Bridget Fidkowski	Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
63	12	Rebekah Stachura	Otsego
64	10	Abree VanDenBrink	Wayland Union
65	10	Danica Redes	Shepherd
66	12	Georgia Babcock	Edwardsburg
67	9	Lulu Park	Sturgis
68	10	Grace Leman	Edwardsburg
69	10	Abby Crandell	Owosso
70	10	Bridget Fullerton	Parma Western
71	11	Cora Parker	Spring Lake
72	11	Colette Charchut	Haslett
73	12	Avery Turk	New Boston Huron
74	11	Melody Meckstroth	Linden
75	11	Avery Silvas	Charlotte
76	10	Sophie Jones	Holland Christian
77	12	Samantha Brown	Clio
78	12	Tessa Hatt	Sturgis
79	10	Peyhton Beardsley	Fruitport
80	12	Nora Gerzema	Farmington Hills Mercy
81	9	Noelle Hulst	Grand Rapids South Christian
82	10	Chloe Mazza	Cadillac
83	10	Kaleigh Clark	Spring Lake
84	9	Taylee Fox	Otsego
85	9	Brooklyn Takagishi	DeWitt
86	11	Kylie Mausolf	Birch Run
87	10	Claire Miller	Monroe Jefferson
88	10	Aurora (Rory) Doepker	DeWitt
89	9	Jordane Falvey	Dearborn Divine Child
90	11	Sawyer Reagan	Allendale
91	10	Maggie Scholma	Grand Rapids Christian
92	10	Vivienne Conflitti	Forest Hills Eastern
93	10	Eastynn Charder	Pinckney
94	10	Lily Phillips	Forest Hills Eastern
95	12	Ava Pawlick	Petoskey
96	10	Addy Nesbitt	Cedar Springs
97	9	Isabelle Oostema	Grand Rapids South Christian
98	11	Lucy Conzelmann	Frankenmuth
99	10	Courtney Floeter	Linden
100	9	Claire Albrecht	Armada

The projections show a little less variability toward potential All-Staters, around 45 girls (not in the above order) with a fighter’s change.

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

A season on the sidelines, the fire must have burned deep. Although he raced unattached on many occasions, Robert Jazwinski never got the chance to make a return trip to MIS, never got a chance to prove his training during his sophomore season. During the 2025 fall, he’s more than verified his work. Undefeated on the year, yet he’s picked his spots for the supreme efforts. A 15:15 at Under the Lights announced his return. A 15:28 at Spartan was the fastest time of the day. And a 14:56 at Benzie was the fastest time of his life. The margin on Saturday will undoubtedly be smaller than previous meets, but there’s been nothing to prove that he’s not up for the challenge.

As stated prior, throughout his career, Jonah Workman has shown he’s up for the challenge. His freshman effort here was integral to the Pioneer title. Two years later, his 15:17 was a personal best and 5^th place finish. This spring, he was 3^rd in the D2 3200m. He’s demonstrated the wheels via a 14:58 at Sparta. A mid-season sickness prevented a true showdown at Portage, but gives motivation for revenge.

I should also mention a few seniors who have given much to the sport and will be present here:

Thomas Larson – hitting the mid-15’s in his past three races, including a Region 14 win.

Moises Salazar Jr. – 3x All-State and Lenawee County Champion.

Edison Lopeman – 8^th here a year ago. Has been battling this year, showing hope with his effort these past few weeks.

Bryce Gross – in tandem with Lennox Naswell, but nonetheless impactful. 20^th here last year with a personal best, one that he’s nearing towards in his past two races.

Ronnie Silveira – twice All-State here and holder of four consecutive sub-16’s.

And if you’re looking forward to 2027, a Gavin Katic/Lennox Naswell showdown. The two sophomores are closely-knit in residence, time, and age. Half a second separated the two at Greater Flint, one of many future battles from these exciting 10^th graders.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Robert Jazwinski III	Whitehall
2	12	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids
3	10	Lennox Naswell	Flint Powers Catholic
4	10	Gavin Katic	Fenton
5	12	Thomas Larson	Alma
6	11	Ezekiel Baltierra	Alma
7	11	Mason Hill	Allendale
8	11	Mitchell Dunlap	Grand Rapids Catholic Central
9	12	Edison Lopeman	Parma Western
10	10	Micah Becker	East Grand Rapids
11	12	Ronnie Silveira	Allendale
12	12	Moises Salazar Jr.	Adrian
13	12	Bryce Gross	Flint Powers Catholic
14	12	Shephard Bower	Forest Hills Eastern
15	11	Caiden Caswell	Vicksburg
16	11	Bryce Cahoon	Shepherd
17	12	Aden Ashworth	Allendale
18	11	Cole McCraw	Pinckney
19	12	Vincent Pattison	Goodrich
20	11	Abraham McHugh	Marshall
21	12	Sean Ryan	Grand Rapids Christian
22	12	Asher Jager	Grand Rapids West Mich. Aviation
23	12	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids
24	12	Jacob Stanislawski	Flat Rock
25	10	Ashton Fink	Grand Rapids Christian
26	10	Duncan Palmer	Williamston
27	12	Brett Magnus	Frankenmuth
28	12	Aiden Marple	DeWitt
29	12	Ben Verellen	Gladwin
30	11	Seth Randall	St. Joseph
31	9	Logan Cristian	Parma Western
32	12	Kenny Sheffer	Otsego
33	11	Owen Adams	Spring Lake
34	10	Ryan Rathsburg	Flint Powers Catholic
35	12	Charlie Brauer	Three Rivers
36	11	Seth Betzold	Essexville Garber
37	12	Henry Fredenberg	Chelsea
38	12	Caleb Carignan	Flint Powers Catholic
39	12	Cole Wisniewski	Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
40	12	Tommy Beiter	Flint Powers Catholic
41	10	Jack Hincks	Detroit Country Day
42	10	Aiden Lambers	Holland
43	12	George Scupham	Edwardsburg
44	12	Owen Metzger	Sparta
45	11	Joshua Macri	Macomb Lutheran North
46	11	Omar Elbashir	Detroit Country Day
47	9	Jackson Pant	Richland Gull Lake
48	11	Christian Ayres	Battle Creek Harper Creek
49	12	Brodie Licata	Lake Fenton
50	11	Gabe Grierson	Ludington
51	9	Grant Lampen	Holland Christian
52	11	Christopher Vogt	Paw Paw
53	11	Nick Parker	Frankenmuth
54	12	Landon Gerritsma	Holland Christian
55	11	Ryan Good	Parma Western
56	11	Steven Zawacki	Forest Hills Eastern
57	10	Liam Dewitt	Haslett
58	11	Lucas Aardema	East Grand Rapids
59	12	Luke Dulecki	New Boston Huron
60	11	Wyeth Angus	Chelsea
61	10	Gerard Gilmour	Fenton
62	12	Thad VanderLaan	Grand Rapids South Christian
63	12	Aiden Weller	Cedar Springs
64	11	Gunnar Djerf	Otsego
65	12	Jacob Hylton	Ortonville Brandon
66	12	Matthew Carbajo	Grosse Ile
67	12	Zahar Rush	Petoskey
68	11	Reeve Oberman	Petoskey
69	12	Murphy Wagner	Saginaw Swan Valley
70	10	Rex Pumford	Whitehall
71	10	Teddy Weber	Williamston
72	12	Tyler VanKuiken	East Grand Rapids
73	12	Carson Wood	Sparta
74	12	Braylon Lenneman	DeWitt
75	10	Carson Wiersbe	St. Joseph
76	12	Sam Hillary	East Grand Rapids
77	11	Hunter Smith	Vicksburg
78	12	Raymond Herek	Williamston
79	12	Benjamin Morales	Sturgis
80	12	Hiro Nguyen	Plainwell
81	12	Luca Lebron	Alma
82	12	Reagan Ward	St. Johns
83	9	Parker Smith	Adrian
84	9	John Rochowiak	Pinckney
85	12	Andrew Feldpausch	Portland
86	10	Kash Moored	Hopkins
87	10	Samuel Johnson	Alma
88	10	Macen White	Holland Christian
89	12	Hunter Parsons	Whitehall
90	10	Grayson Michels	Forest Hills Eastern
91	11	Ben Verlin	Grand Rapids South Christian
92	11	Cole Coffman	Holland Christian
93	12	Micah Small	Grand Rapids Christian
94	12	Jonah Zietlow	Three Rivers
95	12	Cooper Gardner	Battle Creek Harper Creek
96	12	Jack Estelle	Hopkins
97	10	Andrew Nunning	Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
98	10	Eli Morris	Tecumseh
99	10	Christian Pavlige	Fruitport
100	11	Jakin Whitney	Shepherd

This looks to be a wild one, with upwards of 75 boys (not in the above order – some boys are more consistent, others have had occasional bouts of greatness) in contention for the All-State spots.

Just as regionals and other championship meets throughout the year, these projections are done based on thousands of simulated races. How do the simulations work?

Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

Through the simulated races, you can equate all types of scenarios and groupings. Here are the ones listed:

Projected Place – sorted from lowest average score to highest average score
Average Score – the average score across all the simulated races
Place Range – 95% of the placings fall within this range
Win % – the chance that team has of winning the meet
Podium % – the chance that team has of placing top-2
Top-Ten % – the chance that team finishes within the top-10

GIRLS TEAM

The east side of Lansing is teeming with talent. Purely distance girls, mid-distance girls, hurdlers, a combination of which that is speedy on the track and title-worthy on the grass. That combination of ability led to a Lansing Catholic championship in 2024 and has positioned the Cougars as the favorite in 2025. Last year, the Cougars won on their strength from their 5^th girl (Avery Miller), who was the fastest 5^th in the field. Her 38^th place in the team race helped her Cougars come back and pass Pewamo-Westphalia in the team scoring.

The top six have returned from that 2024 MIS squad, enough quality that would have led the Cougars to the #1 spot. Extra insurance has been added in the form of Anna Drauer, a freshman that’s been a consistent presence in the 19’s this latter half of the season. The Cougars as a whole have not been complacent. They’ve captured the CAAC White yet again, keeping the 14-year streak alive. They achieved the lowest score ever in the history of the Michigan Catholic Invite. In the Portage pre-state setting, the team dominated the D3 field enroute to a 80+ point victory. The accomplishments abound in the regular season and can clearly be capped by another championship season title.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Lansing Catholic	81	1st-2nd
2	Pewamo-Westphalia	188	2nd-5th
3	Saugatuck	232	2nd-8th
4	Blissfield	244	2nd-8th
5	Jackson Lumen Christi	248	2nd-10th
6	Olivet	277	3rd-11th
7	Hart	284	2nd-13th
8	Grandville Calvin Christian	305	5th-13th
9	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian	306	4th-14th
10	Benzie Central	318	4th-15th
11	Traverse City St. Francis	340	5th-18th
12	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian	348	7th-17th
13	Remus Chippewa Hills	356	9th-17th
14	McBain	361	6th-20th
15	Kent City	369	7th-20th
16	Bronson	404	11th-22nd
17	Plymouth Christian Academy	405	13th-20th
18	Caro	428	13th-23rd
19	Saginaw Valley Lutheran	440	12th-24th
20	Stanton Central Montcalm	470	17th-24th
21	Leslie	481	16th-25th
22	Bath	489	17th-26th
23	Harbor Springs	490	17th-25th
24	Bridgman	549	21st-27th
25	Grass Lake	558	20th-28th
26	Boyne City	577	21st-28th
27	Monroe St. Mary CC	622	25th-28th
28	Fennville	637	24th-28th

Although the Cougars aren’t truly 100% favorites to win it (no one is!), the question is: who joins LC on the podium? Four teams have a distinct possibility:

Pewamo-Westphalia
Saugatuck
Jackson Lumen Christi
Blissfield

As these squads are based in different regions of Michigan, common matchups aren’t all that common. One did occur at Portage, where P-W placed 2^nd, ahead of Saugatuck and Lumen Christi. P-W and Saugatuck also faced off at the former’s home invite, with the Pirates once again holding serve.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Lansing Catholic	95+	95+	95+
2	Pewamo-Westphalia		64	95+
3	Saugatuck		12	95+
4	Blissfield		6	95+
5	Jackson Lumen Christi		13	95
6	Olivet			93
7	Hart			82
8	Grandville Calvin Christian			70
9	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian			69
10	Benzie Central			55
11	Traverse City St. Francis			35
12	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian			22
13	Remus Chippewa Hills			17
14	McBain			29
15	Kent City			19
16	Bronson			7
17	Plymouth Christian Academy
18	Caro
19	Saginaw Valley Lutheran			6
20	Stanton Central Montcalm
21	Leslie
22	Bath
23	Harbor Springs
24	Bridgman
25	Grass Lake
26	Boyne City
27	Monroe St. Mary CC
28	Fennville

I’ll refer back to the questions posed yesterday:

Who has the best 5^th girl? Likely either Saugatuck or Pewamo-Westphalia. At the two common invites, the Pirates held a slight edge at the 5^th spot, but Saugatuck still has had five girls sub-21 on the year.

Who holds the greatest depth through all varsity runners? Probably Pewamo-Westphalia, who appears interchangeable in their 4^th-6^th slots.

Who steers clear of the bubble? The numbers guess that the main pack of girls will be rated 80-95, or what I would anticipate to be 21:00-21:50. Saugatuck, Blissfield, and Pewamo-Westphalia will all likely have 3-4 girls clear of the pack, Jackson Lumen Christi will have many entrenched in the mix. So there are scenarios where the Titans punch above their projection with the possibility of a few seconds meaning multiple places.

BOYS TEAM

This D3 boys’ race could be the race of the day. Three teams in close proximity, the top trio projected within 8 points of one another. And a non-zero chance that a major upset occurs from the projected 4^th, 5^th, or even 6^th spot. Traverse City St. Francis, 2024’s Division 3 Champion and commonly found outfit up here in the standings left quite a void, returning only one athlete from their title squad. Thus, this championship was always up for grabs.

Saugatuck has always been thought of a contender, both from this season’s work and last fall’s impressive runner-up finish. The Trailblazers weren’t projected anywhere near the 2024 podium, yet were able to pack up and bring home a trophy. The team, fully comprised of underclassmen, set their top-five between 16:19 and 16:46, barreling their way into the 2^nd spot through their tremendous depth.

Jackson Lumen Christi perhaps didn’t have the best day last year, but you can imagine that has spurred their inclusion in this conversation. Especially when one peeks at the improvement of their varsity boys, many impactful time drops by multiple minutes.

Apparent in the spring was the progress of Charlevoix. Three underclassmen that were sub-10 in the 3200m. A State Title in the same event from Hunter Eaton. State qualifiers and a pair of 11^th place finishes from Ryder Hopkins and Matthew Solomon.

Projected	Team	Avg. Score	Place Range
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	175	1st-6th
2	Charlevoix	179	1st-7th
3	Saugatuck	187	1st-8th
4	Lansing Catholic	211	1st-8th
5	Ithaca	215	1st-9th
6	Hanover-Horton	266	1st-14th
7	Stanton Central Montcalm	274	4th-13th
8	Jonesville	282	4th-14th
9	Benzie Central	283	3rd-14th
10	The Potter’s House	313	5th-16th
11	Buchanan	332	4th-19th
12	Holland Black River	342	7th-18th
13	Hart	344	7th-18th
14	Ann Arbor Greenhills	352	7th-20th
15	Plymouth Christian Academy	375	9th-21st
16	Lake City	381	8th-21st
17	Pewamo-Westphalia	429	13th-24th
18	Erie Mason	441	12th-26th
19	Midland Bullock Creek	445	13th-26th
20	Caro	453	15th-26th
21	Blissfield	456	14th-25th
22	Montague	468	15th-27th
23	Traverse City St. Francis	509	18th-27th
24	Montrose	511	16th-27th
25	Schoolcraft	512	17th-27th
26	Harbor Springs	521	19th-27th
27	Monroe St. Mary CC	526	17th-27th

Unlike the first D3 race of the day, common matchups are easy to find. Plenty took place throughout mid-September. Two prominent ones occurred just before championship season: Portage and Bluejay. And Region 23 gives a little hope of what could be an incredible upset.

Bluejay was one of the few races that we saw Charlevoix in action against the other top teams. The Rayders were the top D3 team in the elite section, placing 9^th out of 35 teams. Ithaca and Central Montcalm also competed there, placing 21^st and 22^nd – the Rayders cleared either squad by approximately 200 points. That wasn’t Ithaca’s day, as some of the Yellowjackets’ better performances have come of late.

A week later, at the Portage bonanza, Hanover-Horton, Lansing Catholic, and Saugatuck all jumped out the gate, nearing the lead at the mile. In the middle mile, the Titans surged to the lead, one they wouldn’t relinquish. It’s that kind of strategy that gives confidence for state, pouncing as the adrenaline wears off from the excited and anxious field. But with only a 24-point gap to Saugatuck and 20 more to Lansing Catholic, it showed that there isn’t a huge gap at the top end of the contenders.

Region 23 furthered that point, three top-ten teams present at Sharp Park – Lumen Christi, Hanover-Horton, and Jonesville. The former Comets nearly pulled off the upset, a huge performance (35+ second SB) from Zach Hassenzahl pulling H-H to within a point of Lumen Christi.

Projected	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top-Ten %
1	Jackson Lumen Christi	29	52	95+
2	Charlevoix	24	47	95+
3	Saugatuck	28	44	95+
4	Lansing Catholic	7	19	95+
5	Ithaca	8	20	95+
6	Hanover-Horton		8	76
7	Stanton Central Montcalm			81
8	Jonesville			73
9	Benzie Central			73
10	The Potter’s House			50
11	Buchanan			38
12	Holland Black River			25
13	Hart			26
14	Ann Arbor Greenhills			28
15	Plymouth Christian Academy			13
16	Lake City			12
17	Pewamo-Westphalia
18	Erie Mason
19	Midland Bullock Creek
20	Caro
21	Blissfield
22	Montague
23	Traverse City St. Francis
24	Montrose
25	Schoolcraft
26	Harbor Springs
27	Monroe St. Mary CC

The three posed questions:

Who has the best 5^th runner?

Most likely Lumen Christi, with a lesser chance of Lansing Catholic. At Portage, Avery Morrow handled the heat better than any other D3 5^th kid and was the main driver behind the Titan win. Lansing Catholic had the 2^nd best 5^th performance there and all of their top-five has been sub-17.

Who has the best depth?

There isn’t really any exceptional team here, most have a considerable drop off between their scorers and their 6-7. Lansing Catholic has smallest gap between the two.

Who steers clear of the bubble?

I’d anticipate the main pack crossing the line between 17:00 and 17:40. Lansing Catholic, Saugatuck and Ithaca are the most avoidant of this area. Lumen Christi, Charlevoix, and Hanover-Horton will likely be sparring with others in this range of times. The former two will likely have three come in before it, Hanover-Horton could have many in the mix.

Where am I getting with this? Hanover-Horton could be most variant from their projected spot. Charlevoix, Lumen Christi, and Saugatuck will have many spots to gain (and points to lose) from their depth. Lansing Catholic and Ithaca appear the most stable and could move up on any potential subpar performance from the above teams.

GIRLS INDIVIDUAL

A few names have had excellent careers to date and have come to the forefront this season:

Hailey Creisher – defeated only twice this season, victorious on 14 occasions. At Greater Lansing, was able to slip under 18:00 for the 2^nd time in her career. Back-to-back winner of the Cascades Conference and Region 26.

Samantha Schroeder – has followed the same pattern that led to last year’s 8^th place finish. Has put forth her best material in recent weeks, winning the CHSL Bishop title and finishing first in the D3 race at Portage. Following those wins, the times have come, hitting a season’s best of 18:14 in her Region 23 win.

Hope Miller – following the departure of Emmry Ross, finally has come to claim SE side supremacy. Winner of the Lenawee County, LCAA, and Region 27 titles. Has ventured into the mid-18’s in her past three meets. If track is any indication, 2025 championship meets are her time to shine, as Miller was 2^nd in the 800m and 3^rd in the 1600m.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	12	Hailey Creisher	Leslie
2	11	Samantha Schroeder	Jackson Lumen Christi
3	12	Hope Miller	Blissfield
4	10	Tiya Feldpausch	Olivet
5	10	Elliana Max	Kent City
6	11	Alyssa Kramer	Pewamo-Westphalia
7	11	Grace Wonch	Lansing Catholic
8	10	Josie Bishop	Lansing Catholic
9	11	Violet Tetil	Caro
10	9	Calista George	Pewamo-Westphalia
11	11	Isabelle Sliter	Fennville
12	10	Caelyn Torry	McBain
13	12	Brynne Schulte	Elk Rapids
14	9	Anna Drauer	Lansing Catholic
15	10	Dory Simon	Remus Chippewa Hills
16	9	Lily Britton	Olivet
17	10	Avery Kelly	Benzie Central
18	12	Abigail Reis	Millington
19	12	Bella LaFountain	Monroe St. Mary CC
20	10	Isabelle Currie	Lansing Catholic
21	11	Kamryn Salladay	Lakeview
22	12	Ashlynn Harris	Bronson
23	12	Alina Martinson	Saugatuck
24	12	Anna Pray	Elk Rapids
25	9	Tala Carlin	Buchanan
26	12	Mattie Gagne	Midland Bullock Creek
27	12	Macy Fazekas	Jackson Lumen Christi
28	11	Makinna Foglesong	Ithaca
29	10	Lindsey Ludwig	Lansing Catholic
30	11	Kamryn Sixberry	Saugatuck
31	10	Madisyn Wanstead	LeRoy Pine River
32	12	Aletta Scholten	Grandville Calvin Christian
33	11	Shelby Kuiper	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
34	11	Natalie Rosema	Hart
35	12	Grace Coston	Stanton Central Montcalm
36	11	Marlowe Walcott	Reed City
37	9	Anamaria Brazdau	Plymouth Christian Academy
38	9	Jocelyn Tetil	Caro
39	12	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy
40	9	Kylie Zwiep	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
41	12	Ella Heffner	Charyl Stockwell Academy
42	11	Lyvia Curtis	Saugatuck
43	11	Betsy Gooden	Manton
44	10	Shelby Zimmer	Kent City
45	12	Hailey Sills	Blissfield
46	10	Lindsey Cmeyla	Saginaw Valley Lutheran
47	9	Avery Haynes	Brooklyn Columbia Central
48	9	Alaina Civinskas	Roscommon
49	9	Emma Miller	Hart
50	11	Jenna Keilen	Pewamo-Westphalia
51	12	Quinn Hatfield	Remus Chippewa Hills
52	11	Anna Hallett	Blissfield
53	12	Frances Melinn	Lansing Catholic
54	12	Anna Poppema	Bath
55	10	Emma Kerr	Traverse City St. Francis
56	11	Molly Kate Hollandsworth	Traverse City St. Francis
57	10	Maggie McClellan	Benzie Central
58	10	Alaina Schaner	Hart
59	10	Peyton Nellis	Remus Chippewa Hills
60	10	Aaliyah Hillier	Kalkaska
61	11	Avery Miller	Lansing Catholic
62	10	Faith Helsel	Lake City
63	12	Maryrose Halberg	Charlevoix
64	11	Emily Beethe	Saginaw Valley Lutheran
65	11	Lydia Minderhoud	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
66	11	Nico Triebold	Grayling
67	9	Sage Palmer	Sandusky
68	11	Faith Jenkins	Grandville Calvin Christian
69	9	Lily Sisson	LeRoy Pine River
70	12	Emily Peters	Olivet
71	11	Brynlee Swihart	Hanover-Horton
72	12	Kandin Shuler	Bridgman
73	11	Laura Castrejon	Newaygo
74	10	Lynnae Meengs	Grandville Calvin Christian
75	9	Madelynn Patterson	Olivet
76	11	Ellie Beach	Sanford-Meridian
77	10	Ellason Foster	Newaygo
78	10	Adalyn Jarchow	Grass Lake
79	12	Braelyn Bunting	Stanton Central Montcalm
80	10	Ingrid Molins Rallo	Benzie Central
81	10	Sarah Nothstine	Midland Bullock Creek
82	10	Olivia Brown	Bad Axe
83	9	Ellyse Heyser	Saugatuck
84	12	Georgia Haag	Manistee
85	9	Sydney Knieper	New Lothrop
86	11	Stefi Reskevics	Harbor Springs
87	9	Joselyn Vogel	Kent City
88	9	Allison Burns	Constantine
89	10	Esther Cahill	Saranac
90	9	Kate DeVries	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
91	9	Mya Bronkema	McBain
92	9	Jenny Woznick	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
93	11	Delaney Smith	Pewamo-Westphalia
94	11	Alonna Goodsell	Bronson
95	10	Taylor Stanczak	Almont
96	10	Averie Stefanovsky	Caro
97	12	Makenna Gwisdalla	Bad Axe
98	9	Katherine Schafer	Pewamo-Westphalia
99	9	Leah Elzinga	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
100	11	Kaleea Braun	Blissfield

As I stated in the D4 preview, I don’t anticipate the conditions will be *as* optimal as in 2023 or 2024, so I’d expect times to be a little slower. If I had to fathom a guess toward the All-State cutoff, I’d be antsy if I were above 19:30. The projections give around 55 girls (not in the above order) a fighter’s chance of stepping onto that podium.

BOYS INDIVIDUAL

That void does and doesn’t exist for the D3 boys. Although outgoing seniors took the top-two spots, underclassmen had their presence felt throughout the standings.

Gage Hoffman was the top non-senior, hitting a personal best in his 3^rd place finish.

Christian Craanen and Nole Lorenzen established themselves as youngsters to be reckoned with.

Landen Styka hit another sub-16 in a season full of ‘em.

Caleb Blonde was the fastest sophomore.

Hunter Eaton hit a season best and set the stage for his track heroics.

There doesn’t seem to be great differences or tiers between the top runners. Appearing to have the greatest chances of coming out on top are:

Hunter Eaton – who when faced with the opportunity, has brought his best material. The greatest example of that being his 15:22 from Bluejay.

Gage Hoffman – winner of Portage and Region 24 for the 2^nd year in a row.

Nole Lorenzen – two straight Region 26 titles but also ripping some fast times, such as his 15:24 from Larry Steeb.

Christian Craanen – entered MIS last year with a personal best of 16:20. Enters it this year having already run 15:42. Given his performance at the speedway last November, that gives great hope for another breakout.

Luke Herron – had a dramatic jump toward the end of last year (16:01 and 20^th here) and has continued it further, dipping into the 15’s at John Bruder and Brooks Mid-Season.

Caleb Blonde – battle-tested down in the Jackson area. Winner of the Cascades Conference for the second year in a row and captured Region 23 for the first time ever. Sub-16 for the past four races.

Projected	Grade	Name	Team
1	11	Hunter Eaton	Charlevoix
2	12	Gage Hoffman	Stanton Central Montcalm
3	10	Nole Lorenzen	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
4	10	Christian Craanen	Monroe St. Mary CC
5	11	Caleb Blonde	Jonesville
6	11	Logan Youngman	Hillsdale
7	11	Luke Herron	Caro
8	11	Ryder Hopkins	Charlevoix
9	11	Jonas Ballard	Holland Black River
10	11	Chad Tyson	Hanover-Horton
11	12	Landen Styka	Ithaca
12	10	Owen Poppema	Bath
13	12	Edward Mugisha	The Potter’s House
14	12	Tyler Leach	Otisville LakeVille
15	10	Will Hulin	Centreville
16	11	Marcus Silva	Saugatuck
17	11	Rocky Bolton	Jackson Lumen Christi
18	12	Matthew Solomon	Charlevoix
19	10	Eli VanPoortfliet	Benzie Central
20	10	Clint Couchman	Brooklyn Columbia Central
21	12	Gibson Shore	Jackson Lumen Christi
22	11	Grant Rehkopf	Saugatuck
23	11	John Keser	Buchanan
24	12	Qwynn Darnell	Elk Rapids
25	11	Evan Olson	Pigeon-Laker
26	12	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy
27	12	Jayden Fox	Saginaw Valley Lutheran
28	12	Jeryn Frisbie	Belding
29	11	Isaac Dionne	Boyne City
30	11	Evan MacLaren	Ithaca
31	11	James Tennes	Lansing Catholic
32	10	Soren Crosthwaite	Jackson Lumen Christi
33	12	Lucas Gates	Lansing Catholic
34	12	Jacob Mankey	Ithaca
35	10	Michael Weidmayer	Blissfield
36	11	John Kowatch	Pewamo-Westphalia
37	9	Isaac Cox	Plymouth Christian Academy
38	11	William Gancer	Stockbridge
39	12	John Edler	Homer
40	10	Jackson Bowman	Saugatuck
41	11	Naveen Kulkarni	Ann Arbor Greenhills
42	12	Maxwell Durham	New Haven
43	12	Trenton Fetter	Adrian Madison
44	12	Kyler Fertig	Stanton Central Montcalm
45	12	Jackson Schaub	Benzie Central
46	11	Everett Beach	Lansing Catholic
47	10	Tristan Hernandez	Kingsley
48	12	Sylus Wilson	Stanton Central Montcalm
49	11	Levi Schimmel	Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
50	11	Marshall Brandt	Midland Bullock Creek
51	11	Cooper Flick	Hanover-Horton
52	12	Noah Devereaux	Laingsburg
53	11	Collin Fucile	Jonesville
54	12	Ben Gautsche	Union City
55	12	Peter Soltis	Jackson Lumen Christi
56	10	Noah Sills	Blissfield
57	9	Asher Putman	Reese
58	10	Jack Songer	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW
59	11	Evan Civinskas	Roscommon
60	9	Reese Devisser	Schoolcraft
61	10	Edison Huizinga	Manistee
62	11	Sawyer Monroe	Saugatuck
63	12	Caiden Helsel	Lake City
64	12	Connor Helsel	Lake City
65	12	Alessandro Avila	Constantine
66	12	Nicholas Fowler	Jonesville
67	12	Paul Saladin	Reed City
68	10	Ashton Potwin	Jonesville
69	12	Liam McBeth	Buchanan
70	12	Owen Beindit	Algonac
71	11	Cooper Tiffany	Lakeview
72	11	David Castrejon	Newaygo
73	10	Nolan Kessler	Montague
74	12	Nico Aagesen	Ann Arbor Greenhills
75	11	Avery Morrow	Jackson Lumen Christi
76	11	Téo Krumm	Lansing Catholic
77	12	Jack Sherwood	Buchanan
78	11	Logan Young	Harrison
79	10	Simon Reed	Plymouth Christian Academy
80	11	Easton McCloy	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
81	12	Isaac Johnson	Holland Black River
82	11	Owen Sytsema	Muskegon Western Mich. Christian
83	10	Grant Corlew	Harbor Springs
84	11	Charlie George	Pewamo-Westphalia
85	11	Kenneth Mangles	Leslie
86	9	Sam Casiano	Watervliet
87	11	Gibson Smith	Montague
88	10	Christopher Shemes	Ithaca
89	10	Eli Hobson	Montrose
90	11	Ethan Huff	Homer
91	11	Joseph Colaluca	Erie Mason
92	11	Sebastian Zylstra	Holland Black River
93	10	Tyler Harris	Hanover-Horton
94	10	Grady Richey	Lansing Catholic
95	10	Timothy Wolff	Hart
96	12	Isaac Norcross	Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian
97	12	Henry Beck	Ann Arbor Greenhills
98	11	Maxwell Drenth	Charlevoix
99	10	Remyngton Clish	Sanford-Meridian
100	12	Isaac Struck-VanderHaak	The Potter’s House

I’d guesstimate 16:30 being the slowest time required for an All-State finish. This is a highly variant mix of kids, around 75 boys having a good shot of earning a medal.