Author: mixcspeedratings

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PROJECTIONS

How Right/Wrong Was I?

5/6 on the top-3 teams, with the Rochester girls spoiling the party. But I did get all the qualifiers, as Utica’s girls snuck four into the top-20.

CRUSHED CLINTONWOOD

I will highlight one kid from each race for a little writeup. With Regionals and their survive and advance attitude, I’ll try to shout out someone who extended their season another week when they weren’t expected to, or contributed to a team that came in with a clutch performance. Of course, that leaves out many athletes who gave a great effort, and all of the athletes that were winners for toeing the line this weekend. Congrats to all.

Stephanie Bulat, Rochester

In addition to calculating odds for teams to qualify or win, I also do the same for individuals (but don’t post them beforehand). Stephanie had a 5% chance of finding her way into the top-15 individuals (automatic qualifier). Not only did she find her way into the top-15, in doing so, she was the main driver of her Falcons making it as a team. Her teammates did their jobs, the other qualifying teams ran as expected, and she came through in a big way. Her 19:52 on slower Clintonwood than normal was her first sub-20 and a nearly 20 sec. PR.

Blake Peardon, Lake Orion

It was a rough day for Blake last year. After placing 8^th in the OAA Red, he was certainly in the discussion to make it as an individual. But it just didn’t go his way, as his season ended with a 17:46 and 38^th place finish. A year later, his fortunes 100% changed. He built on his All-County and top-10 OAA Red finishes, yesterday coming across the line in 14^th place.

Girls Adjustment: +10
Boys Adjustment: +6

GIRLS RATINGS

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
11	Lucy Cook	18:18.7	Rochester	150.4
11	Mallory Bigelow	18:36.2	Oxford	144.6
12	Hannah DeRoeck	18:58.3	Lake Orion	137.2
12	Braydee Elling	19:11.3	Oxford	132.9
12	Alexandra Brigham	19:17.2	Clarkston	130.9
10	Addison Herr	19:18.5	Bloomfield Hills	130.5
11	Taylor Brodeur	19:38.2	Oxford	123.9
10	Audrey Hamilton	19:40.9	Troy	123.0
12	Anna Reineck	19:41.0	Clarkston	123.0
10	Siene Muraszewski	19:43.3	Utica	122.2
10	Taylor Parsons	19:49.9	Rochester	120.0
9	Olivia Jenny	19:50.7	Bloomfield Hills	119.8
11	Stephanie Bulat	19:52.7	Rochester	119.1
9	El McMahan	19:54.9	Rochester Adams	118.4
11	Norah Lesner	19:56.4	Utica	117.9
9	Emma Brown	19:58.0	Utica	117.3
9	Avery DeGrendel	19:59.1	Clarkston	117.0
10	Brooke McFarland	19:59.3	Utica	116.9
9	Addison Brigham	20:01.9	Clarkston	116.0
10	Sydney Fischer	20:24.6	Clarkston	108.5
12	Aubrey Mery	20:27.6	Oxford	107.5
11	Jamie Patterson	20:34.1	Oxford	105.3
9	Linda Lopez	20:35.5	Lake Orion	104.8
12	Ana Lopez	20:38.9	Rochester Adams	103.7
11	Sophia Aquino	20:43.8	Utica	102.1
12	Baylie Tull	20:44.0	Troy Athens	102.0
11	Mia Snellgrove	20:44.4	Rochester	101.9
11	Irene Oh	20:46.2	Troy	101.3
9	Annie Roraff	20:46.9	Rochester	101.0
12	Maddie Feurig	20:50.0	Lake Orion	100.0
9	Mary Graves	20:51.9	Lake Orion	99.4
10	Camryn Quidort	20:54.4	Oxford	98.5
10	Laila Bodell	20:55.0	Oxford	98.3
10	Cecilia Kreiter	20:56.2	Rochester Adams	97.9
10	Lillian Brodoski	20:57.2	Lake Orion	97.6
12	Rachel Phillips	20:57.6	Utica Ford	97.5
10	Sabrina Gaul	20:58.5	Troy	97.2
10	Nadia Fedorinchik	20:59.5	Lake Orion	96.8
11	Madie Miller	20:59.7	Troy	96.8
12	Jordan Fraifogl	21:03.5	Waterford Mott	95.5
11	Kaitlyn Kauppila	21:10.7	Rochester Adams	93.1
10	Audrey Henckel	21:11.5	Rochester	92.8
9	Lauren Giroux	21:11.9	Troy	92.7
9	Skylar Seedman	21:14.0	Rochester	92.0
10	Gianna D’Angelo	21:14.6	Utica Ford	91.8
11	Stella Phillips	21:16.8	Rochester Adams	91.1
12	Maya Noren	21:24.9	Troy	88.4
12	Eleanor Kroetsch	21:25.9	Utica	88.0
9	Logan Robison	21:30.5	Clarkston	86.5
9	Liliana Anderson	21:32.7	Lake Orion	85.8
10	Daniella Levitt	21:34.1	Rochester Adams	85.3
12	Allison Giroux	21:34.4	Troy	85.2
10	Hailey Fisher	21:56.9	Auburn Hills Avondale	77.7
11	Alyssa Vietzke	22:01.0	Sterling Heights Stevenson	76.3
11	Regina Garcia Burciaga	22:03.1	Rochester Adams	75.6
12	Megan Luke	22:08.3	Sterling Heights Stevenson	73.9
10	Ava Danielson	22:12.9	Clarkston	72.4
12	Carley Richardson	22:15.3	Bloomfield Hills	71.6
9	Olivia Carlson	22:17.0	Bloomfield Hills	71.0
11	Makayla Perdue-Daniels	22:28.8	Warren Mott	67.1
10	Layla Kallivayalil	22:36.2	Bloomfield Hills	64.6
10	Mercy Brown	22:40.0	Warren Cousino	63.3
11	Valeria Miranda-Diaz	22:47.1	Troy Athens	61.0
12	Sofya Tomala	22:53.5	Utica Ford	58.8
9	Claire Pikal	23:04.4	Waterford Kettering	55.2
12	Marley McMahon	23:15.1	Warren Cousino	51.6
12	Caleigh Bovensiep	23:18.0	Auburn Hills Avondale	50.7
10	Emma Miller	23:27.3	Utica Ford	47.6
12	Marah Erkkinen	23:28.3	Sterling Heights Stevenson	47.2
9	Valentina Mansour	23:29.7	Troy Athens	46.8
10	Sonal Zachariah	23:33.1	Bloomfield Hills	45.6
11	Meredith Winn	23:34.3	Utica Ford	45.2
9	Aris Swan	23:35.9	Waterford Kettering	44.7
12	Gabriella Stachowski	23:43.9	Waterford Mott	42.0
11	Meher Deol	23:54.9	Troy Athens	38.4
9	Charlotte Cotta	24:17.5	Troy Athens	30.8
9	Lilly McNair	24:29.3	Utica	26.9
12	Gillian Johnson	24:33.3	Waterford Mott	25.6
11	Praharshita Dasararaju	24:37.3	Troy Athens	24.2
12	Annalise Griffin	24:38.5	Bloomfield Hills	23.8
12	Aria Sayajon	24:44.3	Warren Mott	21.9
11	Allison Phillips	25:03.5	Warren Mott	15.5
11	Brennan Lowman	25:12.5	Utica Ford	12.5
11	Adison Cooke	25:19.5	Sterling Heights Stevenson	10.2
11	Julia Ferro	25:43.3	Warren Cousino	2.2

BOYS RATINGS

Grade	Name	Time	Team	Rating
12	Vishvaa Ravishankar	15:29.4	Troy	208.2
11	Taye Levenson	15:45.3	Bloomfield Hills	202.9
11	Kian Schneeweis	15:52.5	Troy	200.5
11	Alexander McArthur	15:59.0	Oxford	198.3
10	Harper Wesley	16:07.3	Utica	195.6
10	Nate Linden	16:11.6	Troy Athens	194.1
12	Louis D’Souza	16:15.1	Troy	193.0
11	Cayden DeGrendel	16:16.1	Clarkston	192.6
10	Ryan Barnes	16:20.2	Clarkston	191.3
12	Bryce Nowik	16:21.5	Clarkston	190.8
11	Napolean Lino	16:22.5	Rochester	190.5
11	Luke Morehouse	16:23.3	Utica	190.2
12	Aiden Janes	16:24.4	Rochester Adams	189.9
11	Blake Peardon	16:25.4	Lake Orion	189.5
12	Andrew Floros	16:27.8	Clarkston	188.7
11	James Cusick	16:28.6	Oxford	188.5
12	Jacob Esser	16:30.5	Troy Athens	187.8
12	Lucas Ames	16:33.5	Oxford	186.8
12	Cass Feeney	16:34.2	Oxford	186.6
12	Ethan Muraszewski	16:40.4	Utica	184.5
11	Collin McLaughlin	16:44.3	Rochester	183.2
12	Oliver House	16:44.7	Lake Orion	183.1
11	Max Myrand	16:45.2	Oxford	182.9
11	Myles Linden	16:46.9	Troy Athens	182.4
12	Dylan Esser	16:50.7	Troy Athens	181.1
12	Johnathan Mitchell	16:51.4	Utica Ford	180.9
10	Max Houvener	16:52.4	Lake Orion	180.5
11	Akshat Arora	16:53.0	Troy	180.3
12	Ferdinand Viereck	16:53.1	Rochester Adams	180.3
12	Silas Smith	16:54.7	Utica	179.8
12	Drew Lenard	16:57.7	Rochester	178.8
11	Quinn Kelly	16:58.6	Troy	178.5
11	Jaxson Nowik	16:59.6	Clarkston	178.1
12	Andrew Mercier	17:06.5	Waterford Kettering	175.8
11	Reynold Wei	17:08.3	Rochester Adams	175.2
11	Braden Cinato	17:12.4	Warren Cousino	173.9
11	Joshua Ellingsworth	17:12.9	Clarkston	173.7
10	Aaron Hemstreet	17:15.6	Warren Cousino	172.8
11	Raymond Lucero II	17:20.5	Lake Orion	171.2
11	Braden Waechter	17:21.9	Clarkston	170.7
11	Jacob Van Houten	17:26.1	Troy	169.3
11	Richard Qu	17:26.8	Troy	169.1
12	Paul Gopez	17:33.1	Warren Cousino	167.0
11	John Lonsway	17:33.5	Sterling Heights Stevenson	166.8
11	Anthony Oddo	17:33.9	Rochester Adams	166.7
12	Rhenier Weeks	17:34.0	Utica Ford	166.7
11	Evan Hunt	17:34.2	Waterford Mott	166.6
10	Charlie Curtis	17:35.5	Utica	166.2
10	Dean Gallucci	17:38.9	Utica Ford	165.0
12	Drake Demaris	17:39.0	Warren Cousino	165.0
11	Enrique Allor	17:40.7	Warren Cousino	164.4
12	Dean Pascoe	17:42.5	Rochester	163.8
12	Tanner Stewart	17:44.4	Lake Orion	163.2
10	Caleb Schwarz	17:46.9	Waterford Kettering	162.4
10	Carter Jacobsen	17:49.9	Oxford	161.4
12	Sean Stein	17:50.8	Lake Orion	161.1
11	Gavin Frandle	17:53.3	Utica	160.2
12	Brady Crake	17:54.7	Waterford Mott	159.8
11	Cole Maxwell	17:54.9	Rochester Adams	159.7
10	Anthony Frei	17:55.2	Rochester	159.6
10	Ryan Hunt	17:55.8	Bloomfield Hills	159.4
10	Cayden Canham	17:58.2	Oxford	158.6
9	Conner McLaughlin	17:59.6	Rochester	158.1
11	Levi Clair	18:02.1	Utica	157.3
11	Logan Ference	18:04.0	Troy Athens	156.7
12	Noah Miller	18:04.8	Troy Athens	156.4
12	John Price	18:07.7	Rochester Adams	155.4
9	Zach Shaffer	18:08.0	Utica Ford	155.3
11	Mitch Ngatio	18:09.4	Rochester Adams	154.9
11	Noah Murray	18:11.0	Bloomfield Hills	154.3
10	Luke Mulka	18:15.9	Utica Ford	152.7
12	Robert Gaines	18:20.3	Bloomfield Hills	151.2
12	Praneel Basu	18:22.1	Bloomfield Hills	150.6
11	Christian Frederick	18:29.5	Sterling Heights Stevenson	148.2
11	Liam Dempsey	18:33.0	Troy Athens	147.0
10	Kyle Massimilla	18:35.4	Utica Ford	146.2
12	Nick Truong	18:37.7	Waterford Kettering	145.4
11	Aiden Baugh	18:45.5	Waterford Kettering	142.8
10	David Mann	18:49.4	Sterling Heights Stevenson	141.5
11	Andre Buford	18:54.1	Sterling Heights Stevenson	140.0
12	Mateo Mele	18:55.5	Warren Cousino	139.5
12	Daniel Schruba	19:14.4	Waterford Mott	133.2
12	Robert Ogilvy	19:18.1	Utica Ford	132.0
11	John Cobb	19:26.0	Bloomfield Hills	129.3
9	Caleb Erkkinen	19:27.8	Sterling Heights Stevenson	128.7
11	Nate Bell	19:29.7	Bloomfield Hills	128.1
11	Jacob Bentley	19:40.2	Sterling Heights Stevenson	124.6
12	Michael Drakos	19:42.9	Lake Orion	123.7
11	Cayden Haupt	19:44.7	Warren Cousino	123.1
11	Cameron Berna	19:51.7	Sterling Heights Stevenson	120.8
9	Carson Pavloff	20:00.6	Auburn Hills Avondale	117.8
12	Kevin Lenz	20:17.7	Warren Cousino	112.1
10	Wes Karsen	20:20.5	Waterford Kettering	111.2
10	Brandon Chan	20:29.0	Auburn Hills Avondale	108.3
10	Joshua Schang	20:34.1	Warren Cousino	106.6
9	Wyatt Bovensiep	20:34.3	Auburn Hills Avondale	106.6
11	Sam Criner	20:38.9	Warren Mott	105.0
11	Jabbar Jabbar	21:23.3	Warren Mott	90.2
11	Anthony Badia	21:25.6	Warren Cousino	89.5
9	David Alsip	21:26.5	Warren Mott	89.2
10	Bailey McClain	22:12.8	Waterford Kettering	73.7
12	Bailey Mousseau	22:39.4	Warren Mott	64.9
11	Samer Alzuhairi	23:43.9	Warren Mott	43.4
12	Kiet Tran	23:45.5	Warren Mott	42.8
12	Anthony Le	23:51.4	Warren Mott	40.9
11	Cameron McMeekin	24:07.4	Auburn Hills Avondale	35.5

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#4 East Grand Rapids
#17 Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg
#21 Forest Hills Eastern
#24 Grand Rapids South Christian

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

15^th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	East Grand Rapids	42	1.0	95+	95+
2	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	92	2.2		95+
3	Forest Hills Eastern	106	3.3		63
4	Grand Rapids South Christian	108	3.5		41
5	GR West Michigan Aviation	136	4.9
6	Richland Gull Lake	195	6.6
7	Marshall	207	7.6
8	Hopkins	214	8.0
9	Battle Creek Harper Creek	218	8.2
10	Belding	239	9.6
11	Portland	272	11.0
12	Hastings	339	12.0
13	Wayland Union	397	13.2
14	Lake Odessa Lakewood	412	13.8

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Drew Muller	East Grand Rapids	1.0
2	11	Sadey Seyferth	East Grand Rapids	2.0
3	12	Addison Washler	Forest Hills Eastern	4.7
4	11	Ava Crews	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	5.1
5	12	Emma DeVries	GR West Michigan Aviation	5.3
6	12	Camille DeCola	Marshall	5.7
7	9	Caroline Randall	Hastings	6.4
8	9	Adeline Armstrong	East Grand Rapids	7.5
9	12	Ellia Agar	Grand Rapids South Christian	7.8
10	10	Jillian Clason	Forest Hills Eastern	11.5
11	9	Lane Isom	Richland Gull Lake	12.2
12	10	Madelyn Baar	East Grand Rapids	12.5
13	9	Ainsley Sullivan	Forest Hills Eastern	14.5
14	12	Jaeden Harshberger	Hopkins	16.1
15	9	Meghan-Jane Skidmore	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	19.3
16	12	Emma Monroe	Battle Creek Harper Creek	19.4
17	9	Ellie Harmon	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	19.7
18	10	Rory Workman	East Grand Rapids	20.5
19	11	Desiree Duque-Rico	GR West Michigan Aviation	20.9
20	11	Avery Wezensky	Portland	21.0
21	11	Rachel Berkenpas	Grand Rapids South Christian	23.2
22	10	Catherine Schellhammer	East Grand Rapids	23.6
23	10	Madison Kietzman	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	24.6
24	9	Peyton Hardy	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	25.5
25	10	Chloe Rinzema	Grand Rapids South Christian	25.5
26	11	Kambria Moored	Hopkins	26.8
27	11	Mackenzie Zahm	Belding	27.3
28	12	Riley VanderLaan	Grand Rapids South Christian	28.1
29	10	Leah McPartlin	Marshall	28.6
30	11	Quincy Stiffler	East Grand Rapids	30.0

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#1 Forest Hills Eastern
#4 East Grand Rapids
#8 Marshall

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

You throw three top-8 teams in a region and you get a potential 23^rd place qualifier.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Forest Hills Eastern	39	1.0	95+	95+
2	East Grand Rapids	51	2.0		95+
3	Marshall	84	3.0		95+
4	Battle Creek Harper Creek	158	4.1
5	Hastings	191	5.5
6	Grand Rapids South Christian	194	5.7
7	Wayland Union	221	8.0
8	Richland Gull Lake	223	8.1
9	GR West Michigan Aviation	226	8.4
10	Ionia	235	9.2
11	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	302	11.3
12	Belding	326	12.3
13	Portland	330	12.6
14	Hopkins	356	13.9
15	Lake Odessa Lakewood	421	15.2
16	Battle Creek Pennfield	437	15.9

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Alex Thole	East Grand Rapids	1.4
2	11	Jack Bidwell	Marshall	1.9
3	11	Henry Dixon	Forest Hills Eastern	3.7
4	12	Brendan Hoving	Forest Hills Eastern	4.9
5	10	Jonah Workman	East Grand Rapids	5.8
6	12	Liam Hinman	Forest Hills Eastern	6.0
7	12	Ryan Brinker	East Grand Rapids	6.4
8	11	Dominic Lowrie	Battle Creek Harper Creek	6.9
9	12	Cooper Jacobsen	Forest Hills Eastern	9.3
10	12	Connor Griffith	Marshall	9.5
11	12	Jacob Montgomery	Ionia	11.6
12	12	Lucas Van Meter	Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg	14.2
13	11	Reece Davis	Marshall	15.1
14	12	Tate Miller	Forest Hills Eastern	15.9
15	10	Jack Edison	East Grand Rapids	16.1
16	12	William O’Dell	Battle Creek Harper Creek	16.5
17	10	Gavin Markucki	Richland Gull Lake	17.6
18	9	Abraham McHugh	Marshall	18.7
19	11	Dylan Pallett	Wayland Union	18.7
20	12	Davis Christy	East Grand Rapids	21.9
21	12	Luke Ueland	Forest Hills Eastern	22.0
22	11	Tyler Endres	Forest Hills Eastern	22.7
23	12	Riley Shults	Hastings	22.9
24	11	Brandon Simmons	Hastings	23.1
25	10	Jeryn Frisbie	Belding	24.9
26	12	Isaac Dyer	Wayland Union	25.4
27	10	Thad VanderLaan	Grand Rapids South Christian	27.2
28	10	Jack Estelle	Hopkins	28.9
29	10	Cooper Gardner	Battle Creek Harper Creek	28.9
30	10	Finn Tauren	Richland Gull Lake	29.1

Finally, the start of the season we’ve all been waiting for. Throw out all the fast times from September, but apply all the lessons learned through the summer and fall. Regional week is here and with it comes the many projections and previews I’ll write.

Just as last year and throughout the season, I’m projecting these using race simulations. Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.

These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:

Tanner Time	Tanner Rating	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev.
15:30	210
15:45	205
16:00	200
16:15	195
16:30	190	200	7.91
MIXCSR Time	MIXCSR Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev.
16:09	197
16:12	196
16:15	195
16:18	194
16:21	193	195	1.58

Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60^th.

If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:

Race	Tanner Avg.	Tanner StDev	Tanner Rating	MIXCSR Avg.	MIXCSR StDev	MIXCSR Rating
1	200	7.9	202.1	195	1.6	195.6
2	200	7.9	196.2	195	1.6	194.1
3	200	7.9	190.0	195	1.6	199.2
4	200	7.9	193.4	195	1.6	192.5
5	200	7.9	206.8	195	1.6	195.7
6	200	7.9	201.8	195	1.6	196.1
7	200	7.9	171.6	195	1.6	194.9
8	200	7.9	189.2	195	1.6	195.9
9	200	7.9	205.5	195	1.6	197.0
10	200	7.9	203.8	195	1.6	192.6
11	200	7.9	192.3	195	1.6	196.5
12	200	7.9	196.9	195	1.6	196.4
13	200	7.9	198.5	195	1.6	195.6
14	200	7.9	203.2	195	1.6	194.1
15	200	7.9	193.9	195	1.6	192.6
16	200	7.9	199.3	195	1.6	193.2
17	200	7.9	208.7	195	1.6	194.2
18	200	7.9	213.7	195	1.6	194.6
19	200	7.9	212.6	195	1.6	197.1
20	200	7.9	206.3	195	1.6	193.9

I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.

The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.

But always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These projections are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW
MID-SEASON

GIRLS

Ranked Teams

#9 Buckley
#12 Grand Traverse Academy
#13 Mason County Eastern
#26 Leland

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

18th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Buckley	43	1.3	71	95+
2	Grand Traverse Academy	52	1.8	29	95+
3	Mason County Eastern	70	2.9		95+
4	Leland	105	4.1
5	Frankfort	120	5.1
6	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	130	5.8
7	Pentwater	171	7.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Aiden Harrand	Buckley	1.0
2	11	Ella Knudsen	Leland	2.2
3	9	Addy Zeller	Bear Lake-Onekama	3.9
4	10	Kinsey Peer	Buckley	7.5
5	9	Addison Patrzik	Grand Traverse Academy	7.6
6	10	Lauren Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	8.6
7	10	Brooklynn Frazee	Buckley	8.8
8	12	Paige Bell	Grand Traverse Academy	10.1
9	10	Shenoah Collier	Grand Traverse Academy	10.7
10	11	Lucy Shoup	Mason County Eastern	10.8
11	9	Mikayla Kulawiak	Buckley	11.3
12	10	Addison Chownyk	Frankfort	12.4
13	9	Natalie Burpee	Leland	12.5
14	8	Claire Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	13.4
15	9	Bailey Stephen	Grand Traverse Academy	15.3
16	10	Jennifer Kmiecik	Bear Lake-Onekama	15.9
17	9	Brailyn Johnson	Mason County Eastern	16.7
18	12	Abby Kissling	Brethren	20.3
19	9	Addison Malburg	Mason County Eastern	21.9
20	10	Natalie Brown	Bear Lake-Onekama	22.8
21	9	Kaylee Swanson	Buckley	23.0
22	12	Olivia Wing	Mason County Eastern	23.1
23	9	Ellen Schwaiger	Leland	23.1
24	10	Sofia Alaimo	Frankfort	23.5
25	9	Madison Smith	Grand Traverse Academy	24.8
26	12	Ava Butera	Grand Traverse Academy	24.8
27	9	Bailey Case	Pentwater	25.4
28	9	Tess Hoedel	Grand Traverse Academy	25.7
29	12	Kendra Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	26.9
30	11	Emily Alaimo	Maple City Glen Lake	28.2

BOYS

Ranked Teams

#5 Mason County Eastern
#11 Maple City Glen Lake
#19 Frankfort
#27 Pentwater

Projected Individual Qualifier Cutoff

17th place.

Projected Place	Team	Avg. Score	Avg. Place	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Mason County Eastern	60	1.0	95+	95+
2	Maple City Glen Lake	86	2.1		95+
3	Frankfort	103	2.9		95+
4	Pentwater	129	4.4
5	Leland	136	5.0
6	Bear Lake-Onekama	149	6.0
7	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	170	7.7
8	Mesick	171	7.8
9	Grand Traverse Academy	178	8.2
10	Walkerville	250	10.0

Projected Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Mason Sinke	Bear Lake-Onekama	1.8
2	12	Abe VanDuinen	Pentwater	2.6
3	9	Kyle Redman	Mesick	3.3
4	11	Colebrook Sutherland	Maple City Glen Lake	4.2
5	11	Alex Tyndall	Mason County Eastern	4.6
6	9	Ty Redman	Mesick	5.4
7	12	Kaden Forward	Bear Lake-Onekama	6.4
8	12	Mitchel Daniels	Pentwater	8.7
9	9	Sebastian Dunaway	Frankfort	9.8
10	11	Carroll Robotham	Frankfort	10.6
11	12	Luke Niedzielski	Mason County Eastern	11.5
12	9	Abraham Feeney	Maple City Glen Lake	12.9
13	11	Henry Malburg	Mason County Eastern	14.0
14	9	Milo Shoup	Mason County Eastern	15.0
15	12	Peter Hybza	Mason County Eastern	15.5
16	10	Keith Crompton	Frankfort	15.7
17	12	Agustin Creamer	Leland	16.0
18	10	Liam McCaw	Maple City Glen Lake	17.0
19	11	Greyson Hoeflinger	Mason County Eastern	19.6
20	11	Parker Rubin	Grand Traverse Academy	20.1
21	10	Cody Couturier	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	21.5
22	10	Matthew Bentley	Buckley	22.4
23	9	Evan Keen	Leland	24.4
24	10	Oliver Mitchell	Lake Leelanau St. Mary	24.9
25	9	Joel Martin	Maple City Glen Lake	27.2
26	9	Aron Mascorro	Walkerville	30.0
27	11	Ron Hasenbank	Mason County Eastern	30.2
28	10	Wyatt Roberts	Pentwater	30.2
29	10	Easton Nowak	Bear Lake-Onekama	31.5
30	10	Jacob Plamondon	Maple City Glen Lake	32.2