Hard to fathom, but we’re a month out from Regionals. Championship Season is coming soon, starting this week with the Battle Creek City Meet, Berrien County, then next week with Oakland County and Wayne County, advancing further on with our many area and conference championships. The weather is beginning to turn, mornings becoming cooler, leaves transforming into their beautiful fall hues, and most important – times are quickening and competition is heating up.
Given this juncture, time for another look at the regional projections. These follow many of the same rules as the division rankings. Using an individual’s races from here, a total rating is created by taking the top 75% of a runner’s races and weighing them toward more recent meets. Those ratings are then ranked for each region/division, spitting out a score that is used for the rankings. One added factor this week – filtering out athletes that haven’t competed over the past month, which I sadly have to assume are injured or no longer competing.
These might be much different than the athletic.net hypothetical meet. Anet uses the best performance from the season. I take more races into account, as I feel the entire resume speaks a greater volume about someone. Anet uses jamborees and duals, for which I don’t have time to calculate. Anet doesn’t account for course differences. If you take the 160 boys that ran at both Holly and Jackson, on average the Jackson times were 30 seconds faster. We have great coaches in this state that promote week-to-week improvement, but clearly there are differences in courses (and there are short/questionable ones too)! I’m not saying one is better than the other, just that I prefer my own and my bet is that they’ll be more accurate when we do this again next month.
Major Movers
Those that have moved up a considerable amount or are unforeseen additions
Plymouth Christian Academy Girls
Birmingham Roeper Girls
Royal Oak Shrine Boys
Riverview Gabriel Richard Boys
Grace Kendziuk, Allen Park Cabrini
Josephine Malcolm, Royal Oak Shrine
Rose Losey, Royal Oak Shrine
Sarah Goodwin, Auburn Hills Oakland Christian
Madi Hare, Plymouth Christian Academy
Andrew Lopez, Royal Oak Shrine
Jacob Ferdubinski, Riverview Gabriel Richard
Evan Sumner, Plymouth Christian Academy
Rich Fanti, Riverview Gabriel Richard
Tiny Movers
Those that have moved up just a tiny bit, but have improved nonetheless.
Grace Ligon, Southfield Christian
Louisa Denks, Royal Oak Shrine
Eleanor Cole, Lutheran Westland
Jeffrey McGuire, Lutheran Westland
Luke Douglas, Auburn Hills Oakland Christian
Max Brannan, Lutheran Westland
Tom Shafer, Lutheran Westland
Emmanuel Mehari, Plymouth Christian Academy
Abenezer Cerone, Royal Oak Shrine
Steady At The Top
May be most impressive of all, teams or individuals that were projected to win or qualify and are still in those spots. Much tougher to be the hunted than the hunter.
Auburn Hills Oakland Christian Girls
Royal Oak Shrine Girls
Allen Park Cabrini Girls
Lutheran Westland Boys
Cardinal Mooney Boys
Ava Teed, Allen Park Cabrini
Tyler Lenn, Marine City Cardinal Mooney
| Place | Girls Team | Score | Division Rank |
| 1 | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian | 37 | 11 |
| 2 | Royal Oak Shrine | 56 | 19 |
| 3 | Allen Park Cabrini | 65 | 21 |
| 4 | Plymouth Christian Academy | 118 | |
| 5 | Birmingham Roeper | 143 | |
| 6 | Southfield Christian | 144 | |
| 7 | Academy of the Sacred Heart | 168 | |
| 8 | New Haven Merritt Academy | 224 | |
| 9 | Austin Catholic | 232 |
| Place | Grade | Name | Team |
| 1 | 12 | Ava Teed | Allen Park Cabrini |
| 2 | 11 | Eliza Keith | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian |
| 3 | 12 | Leah Zarrilli | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian |
| 4 | 10 | Eleanor Cole | Lutheran Westland |
| 5 | 11 | Natalie Gibbs | Birmingham Roeper |
| 6 | 10 | Madi Hare | Plymouth Christian Academy |
| 7 | 11 | Sarah Goodwin | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian |
| 8 | 9 | Louisa Denks | Royal Oak Shrine |
| 9 | 11 | Rose Losey | Royal Oak Shrine |
| 10 | 12 | Karis Keith | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian |
| 11 | 12 | Morgan McNally | Academy of the Sacred Heart |
| 12 | 9 | Josephine Malcolm | Royal Oak Shrine |
| 13 | 11 | Grace Kendziuk | Allen Park Cabrini |
| 14 | 10 | Maya Ferguson | Marine City Cardinal Mooney |
| 15 | 12 | Grace Ligon | Southfield Christian |
| Place | Boys Team | Score | Division Rank |
| 1 | Royal Oak Shrine | 57 | 8 |
| 2 | Lutheran Westland | 67 | 10 |
| 3 | Marine City Cardinal Mooney | 75 | 13 |
| 4 | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian | 97 | 22 |
| 5 | Riverview Gabriel Richard | 129 | |
| 6 | Plymouth Christian Academy | 138 | |
| 7 | Birmingham Roeper | 144 | |
| 8 | Austin Catholic | 199 | |
| 9 | New Haven Merritt Academy | 264 |
| Place | Grade | Name | Team |
| 1 | 12 | Tyler Lenn | Marine City Cardinal Mooney |
| 2 | 10 | Abenezer Cerone | Royal Oak Shrine |
| 3 | 10 | Emmanuel Mehari | Plymouth Christian Academy |
| 4 | 11 | Tom Shafer | Lutheran Westland |
| 5 | 12 | TJ Donnan | Southfield Christian |
| 6 | 10 | Rich Fanti | Riverview Gabriel Richard |
| 7 | 10 | Max Brannan | Lutheran Westland |
| 8 | 12 | Isaac Zammit | Marine City Cardinal Mooney |
| 9 | 10 | Michael Bowker | Royal Oak Shrine |
| 10 | 9 | Vern Clyne | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian |
| 11 | 12 | Luke Douglas | Auburn Hills Oakland Christian |
| 12 | 12 | Evan Sumner | Plymouth Christian Academy |
| 13 | 9 | Jacob Ferdubinski | Riverview Gabriel Richard |
| 14 | 10 | Andrew Lopez | Royal Oak Shrine |
| 15 | 12 | Jeffrey McGuire | Lutheran Westland |
