Author: mixcspeedratings

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Detroit Catholic Central	77	90+	95+
2	White Lake Lakeland	94		89
3	Highland-Milford	99		63
4	Walled Lake Northern	106		41
5	Novi	131		7

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Jared Platt	White Lake Lakeland	1.61
2	11	Ty Parker	Walled Lake Northern	2.03
3	12	Griffin Conway	Novi	4.40
4	10	Logan Mullan	Detroit U-D Jesuit	4.41
5	12	Nathan Riddering	Novi	5.78
6	12	Matthew Short	Berkley	5.99
7	11	Pierce Grzymkowski	White Lake Lakeland	6.88
8	12	Matthew Atkinson	Detroit Catholic Central	9.15
9	9	Kyle O’Rourke	Highland-Milford	10.32
10	12	Eddie King	Farmington	11.25
11	12	Sebastian Cervelli	West Bloomfield	11.49
12	11	Evan Rice	Walled Lake Northern	11.92
13	12	Quaid Schimetz	Highland-Milford	15.25
14	11	Ryan Illikman	Detroit Catholic Central	15.60
15	12	Jack Kelly	Detroit Catholic Central	15.75
16	12	Gavin Steele	Farmington	16.73
17	12	Iggy Grynaviski	Farmington	19.04
18	10	Ryan Carrannanto	Highland-Milford	20.53
19	12	Josh Lassaline	Detroit Catholic Central	20.62
20	12	Miles Buckley	Detroit Catholic Central	20.68
21	11	Lucas Karbel	Walled Lake Northern	21.31
22	12	Michael Ehresman	Detroit Catholic Central	21.46
23	12	Thomas Kennedy	Highland-Milford	22.62
24	11	Oliver Moss	Berkley	24.25
25	12	Ben Gnatek	Novi	25.59
26	11	Noah Tiernan	White Lake Lakeland	27.16
27	11	Ryan Ward	White Lake Lakeland	27.71
28	11	Declan Foley	Detroit U-D Jesuit	28.96
29	12	Nicholas Negru	Walled Lake Central	29.60
30	9	Gavin Johns	White Lake Lakeland	30.43

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Walled Lake Northern	57	86	95+
2	Highland-Milford	79	12	91
3	Novi	94		66
4	Farmington	101		36
5	White Lake Lakeland	120		7

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	10	Molly Baracco	Farmington	2.40
2	12	Grace Harkenrider	Highland-Milford	4.72
3	12	Jacie Remtema	Highland-Milford	4.99
4	12	Genavieve Kushner-Lopez	Walled Lake Western	6.22
5	11	Ava Kurczewski	Walled Lake Northern	6.76
6	11	Kylee King	Oak Park	7.17
7	12	Anjali Kidambi	Novi	9.25
8	11	Alisia Olteanu	Walled Lake Western	10.09
9	12	Taylor Regester	Walled Lake Northern	10.18
10	11	Madelyn Gordon	Walled Lake Northern	10.38
11	10	Isabelle Krause	Walled Lake Northern	13.12
12	12	Abigail German	Novi	13.31
13	10	Catherine Steele	Farmington	13.46
14	10	Ava Alicandro	White Lake Lakeland	13.73
15	11	Emma Hoffmeyer	Walled Lake Western	15.08
16	11	Faylinn Wong	Farmington	15.66
17	12	Ava Walsh	White Lake Lakeland	16.43
18	12	Emily Wade	Walled Lake Central	16.82
19	12	Ava Porter	Walled Lake Northern	22.22
20	12	Olivia Lincourt	Farmington	24.16
21	11	Talia Sachs	Birmingham Seaholm	24.52
22	10	Joanna Philip	Novi	25.37
23	11	Saniya Reddy	Novi	25.82
24	11	Mia Czarnowski	Walled Lake Northern	25.91
25	9	Mya Tass	Novi	27.04
26	12	Leah Merriam	Highland-Milford	28.37
27	10	Macy Jenkins	Highland-Milford	29.24
28	10	Lauren Bickerdt	Detroit Renaissance	29.44
29	10	Natalie Joiner	White Lake Lakeland	30.50
30	12	Mia McDonald	White Lake Lakeland	30.81

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Whitmore Lake	42	95+	95+
2	Carson City-Crystal	81		95+
3	Novi Christian Academy	100		91
4	Webberville	118		9

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Logan Cooper	Potterville	1.15
2	12	Braylan Majesky	Whitmore Lake	2.02
3	12	Caleb Howard	Webberville	3.80
4	9	Landen Livingston	Whitmore Lake	5.08
5	11	Cameron Griffin	Whitmore Lake	5.35
6	12	Deegan Bodell	Carson City-Crystal	6.15
7	12	Jacob Skidmore	Novi Christian Academy	6.91
8	11	Jobe Skaff	Novi Christian Academy	10.68
9	11	Reily Henderson	Whitmore Lake	11.37
10	11	Trevor Feldpausch	Fowler	11.48
11	9	Timothy Chamberlain	Portland St. Patrick	12.45
12	9	Emmanuel Mehari	Plymouth Christian Academy	12.94
13	9	Quentin Smith	Fowler	13.98
14	9	Kristian Coon	Carson City-Crystal	14.64
15	12	Dennis Wilson	Novi Christian Academy	16.32
16	9	Carter Clark	Carson City-Crystal	16.47
17	12	Adam Moore	Plymouth Christian Academy	16.85
18	12	Drew Peckens	Webberville	18.87
19	10	Nate Dillon	Whitmore Lake	19.65
20	12	Brayden Clark	Carson City-Crystal	19.80
21	12	Vincenzo Lewan	Plymouth Christian Academy	20.00
22	12	Martin White	Portland St. Patrick	21.86
23	9	Tyler Langfeldt	Potterville	22.17
24	9	Gavin Howery	Webberville	22.43
25	10	Ronaldo Rivas	Whitmore Lake	24.81
26	9	Isaac FoxElster	Portland St. Patrick	25.94
27	11	Liam Wilder	Webberville	26.03
28	12	Oisin O’Grady	Carson City-Crystal	26.06
29	12	Jacob Stevens	Carson City-Crystal	27.61
30	11	Ryan Williams	Novi Christian Academy	30.75

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Whitmore Lake	26	95+	95+
2	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	89		95+
3	Novi Christian Academy	110		53
4	Portland St. Patrick	113		46

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	9	Carina Burchi	Whitmore Lake	1.01
2	12	Ashlyn Kephart	Lansing Christian	3.11
3	11	Natalie Meadows	Whitmore Lake	3.88
4	11	Ellayna Meredith	Portland St. Patrick	4.14
5	9	Elodie Weaver	Whitmore Lake	5.54
6	10	Kelcie Pung	Fowler	8.29
7	11	Josie Dubuc	Novi Christian Academy	8.50
8	9	Taylor Wiegand	Livingston Christian	8.55
9	12	Brooke Craven	Whitmore Lake	8.74
10	9	Madi Hare	Plymouth Christian Academy	8.86
11	9	Sofia Robertson	Whitmore Lake	9.51
12	10	Erica Walker	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	12.04
13	12	Cozette Brown	Portland St. Patrick	12.50
14	11	Mya Guillermo	Novi Christian Academy	14.48
15	11	Eve Herrgott	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	17.13
16	12	Grace Piggott	Fowler	18.00
17	–	Grace Bell	Novi Christian Academy	18.85
18	10	Isabella Nelson-Daniels	Whitmore Lake	19.19
19	12	Alyse Felix	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	19.55
20	9	Alaina Driver	Potterville	20.86
21	12	Stephanie Suran	Clarkston Everest Collegiate	22.15
22	12	Corinne Ritter	Lansing Christian	24.11
23	11	Ciara Parsons	Whitmore Lake	24.14
24	11	Grace O’Hare	Fowler	24.77
25	9	Clara Groen	Plymouth Christian Academy	24.95
26	8	Ezrielle Martin	Livingston Christian	27.02
27	9	Tabitha Norris	St. Charles	28.85
28	11	Isabelle Kissane	Portland St. Patrick	29.37
29	10	Audrey Johnson	Livingston Christian	31.25
30	10	Emily Mueller	St. Charles	31.69

Regional Week is here! All week, I’ll be posting these projections. I’ll start with the Friday regions, then work on the Saturday ones.

These are a bit different than they’ve been in the past. I’m trying to project as always, but changing it up a bit in terms of the methodology. In the past, I’ve just sorted out by the ratings, then scored as if they’re a cross country meet. Here, I’m doing the same thing, but running simulations. Essentially, given a runner’s ratings and the variance in their ratings throughout the season, I’m able to generate a large sample of “races” and not just one scenario. The thought is that this will give a better depiction of what may occur. If an athlete is consistent, that will be represented. If an athlete is polarizing, but has a chance at greatness, that will be represented. Both aren’t possible when just throwing out one race. The Macomb County projections were done in the same manner and TullyRunners explains it here.

By simulating many races, I can hand out odds and percentages as well. The team projections have odds of winning and odds of placing in the top three. The individual ones have an athlete’s average place. I do have odds on an athlete winning and getting top-15, but I’m not gonna post that ahead of time. Maybe after and we can see who came through in a huge way on the huge stage.

What I’ve learned from the past is that I write way too much in the previews early in the week, then worry I’ll run out of time mid-week, running on fumes and puttering out by Thursday.  The writing is the time-consuming part, the maths are actually easy. I’ll save the writing chops for next week, where penning four previews is easier on the brain than thirty-six.

Always remember, races aren’t run on paper or on a computer. These are meant to better our sport, give more attention where little is given. Although I take pride in their accuracy, this endeavor would be quite boring if it were always perfect. I look forward to these being proven wrong and I expect to hear about it as well.

SUMMER PREVIEW

MID-SEASON

Boys

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	76	71	95+
2	Royal Oak Shrine	84	10	95+
3	Lutheran Westland	87	19	95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	12	Christopher Russelburg	Allen Park Cabrini	1.46
2	11	Tyler Lenn	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	1.58
3	12	Alex Meszaros	Riverview Gabriel Richard	3.62
4	12	Merrick Michaelson	West Bloomfield Frankel Jewish Academy	4.50
5	11	TJ Donnan	Southfield Christian	5.63
6	9	Abenezer Cerone	Royal Oak Shrine	6.03
7	12	Johnny Benko	Riverview Gabriel Richard	8.96
8	9	Michael Bowker	Royal Oak Shrine	9.53
9	10	Tom Shafer	Lutheran Westland	10.31
10	9	Max Brannan	Lutheran Westland	10.91
11	12	Arline Lile	Royal Oak Shrine	11.54
12	11	Isaac Zammit	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	11.67
13	12	Matthew Zammit Jr.	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	12.41
14	11	Luke Douglas	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	14.33
15	11	AJ Owen	Birmingham Roeper	14.55
16	12	Dean Moshier	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	18.38
17	12	Brayden McKay	Allen Park Cabrini	18.68
18	10	Seth Slater	Southfield Christian	19.27
19	12	Samuel Wenzel	Austin Catholic	19.98
20	11	Tommy Abazi	Southfield Christian	20.26
21	11	Max Procissi	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	22.35
22	12	Logan Eiden	Allen Park Cabrini	22.56
23	9	Justin Grissom	Lutheran Westland	25.21
24	11	Nathan Betke	Lutheran Westland	26.04
25	12	Mitchell Graveline	Royal Oak Shrine	26.98
26	12	Dominic Catallo	Lutheran Westland	27.85
27	11	Jeffrey McGuire	Lutheran Westland	27.96
28	12	Luke Witte	Lutheran Westland	28.01
29	11	Austin Ahler	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	29.29
30	10	Jack Luzynski	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	29.54

Girls

Place	Team	Avg. Score	Win %	Top 3 %
1	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	45	94	95+
2	Royal Oak Shrine	55	6	95+
3	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	60		95+

Place	Grade	Name	Team	Avg. Place
1	11	Ava Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	1.10
2	10	Eliza Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	2.41
3	12	Erika Van Loton	Huron Valley Lutheran	2.50
4	12	Helana Napiorkowski	Austin Catholic	4.81
5	12	Madeleine Barge	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	5.68
6	11	Leah Zarrilli	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	6.86
7	11	Abby Rice	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	7.96
8	10	Natalie Gibbs	Birmingham Roeper	8.08
9	12	Julia Troxel	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	9.50
10	12	Natalie Malczyk	Huron Valley Lutheran	9.61
11	11	Morgan McNally	Academy of the Sacred Heart	11.80
12	12	Michaela Kurth	Lutheran Westland	12.07
13	10	Tess Tillman	Royal Oak Shrine	12.70
14	10	Rose Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	15.87
15	12	Maura Gum	Royal Oak Shrine	17.11
16	11	Kendall Zaliwski	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	18.07
17	10	Isobel Malcolm	Royal Oak Shrine	18.29
18	10	Annaliese Losey	Royal Oak Shrine	18.54
19	11	Grace Ligon	Southfield Christian	19.24
20	11	Karis Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	19.29
21	11	Nicole Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	20.02
22	12	Emma Burrell	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	22.77
23	9	Raley Keith	Auburn Hills Oakland Christian	22.88
24	9	Madisyn Smith	Allen Park Cabrini	24.29
25	10	Chloe Surhigh	Royal Oak Shrine	24.56
26	9	Maya Ferguson	Marine City Cardinal Mooney	25.74
27	12	Elaine Teed	Allen Park Cabrini	27.08
28	10	Rita Luhring	Rochester Hills Lutheran NW	27.56
29	12	Meg Gleeson	Royal Oak Shrine	28.14
30	12	Lillian Paschke	Riverview Gabriel Richard	30.11