Author: mixcspeedratings

Regional Previews

50 Tickets

Top Tens

Where: Hess Hathaway

Curiously ran a bit fast for OAA White, but for the other three meets last year, was a consistent -30. There’s a constant stream of hills, two major ones at 600m and halfway are eye-popping, but don’t ignore the gradual rise after the 2-mile mark. The first two are one called the Beautiful Lady, the last one doesn’t have a name, but will separate qualifiers from souls leaving their body. We have a course map and Jacob Tanner’s elevation maps (check them out):

2021 Boys: Pinckney (5^th), Linden (7^th), Cranbrook-Kingswood (28^th)

2021 Girls: Goodrich (10^th), Bloomfield Hills Marian (27^th), Pinckney (22^nd)

Taking a look back at last year’s Summer Preview through Regional Preview, you see a certain team moving up. Running through the beautiful Cranbrook community was a team that slowly worked their way up the ranks. Solomon Kwartowitz was the obvious example, subtracting minutes from his previous best impacts a little at the front. But a greater impact is found in the middle of the pack with kids such as Yija Shan and Bretton Fischer achieving sub-19 when they hadn’t been close to that mark in 2020. And I can’t forget Michael Atsuya coming in clutch, clinching the Cranes state meet bid.

They’ll likely be going up against Goodrich (Pinckney and Linden are just so great and deep) for that third spot. Goodrich is young, consistently bolstered by their great MS program. The Martians move up two 8^th graders that broke 12:00 in pretty much all of their races, tough courses such as Holly included. As with freshman, that could go two ways, a guy like me always hopes for the best and projects the middle. I think they’ll be in the mix for a state qualifying spot as individuals, which will set up one of the better team qualifying battles.

Goodrich’s girls are more than bolstered by their middle school squad. They’ve established one of the better programs in the state and they’re just young, filled to the brim with potential. We saw the beginnings of that in November, where a squad comprised of freshman and sophomores finished 10^th in Division 2. Now you add the Dunn sisters, integral members of a MS team that won titles at Holly, Zone 4, Flint Area (beating dominating Division 1 teams). I’m not saying it’ll happen, but this might be the most serious threat since Petoskey to put a halt into East Grand Rapids’ dominance.

Top 25 Boys: Pinckney (Top 5), Linden (8^th)

Top 25 Girls: Goodrich (Top 5)

Here, I’m writing at least a little anecdote about kids that are in the top-15 but aren’t freshman (Goodrich boys), in the 50 Tickets (Solomon and Kyle), or on Top 10 teams (wow, Pinckney, Goodrich, and Linden are loaded). Want to spread love but also not overwork myself. All in all, my estimation is through all these previews, I’ll be writing at least a sentence about 1000+ kids.

Nolan Pinion, Lake Fenton: October brought about a new person. Four of his final races were in the 16’s (and let’s be honest, his 18:06 here was equivalent to a sub-17). Nolan wasn’t stopped there, breaking 10:00 in track.

Wade Robinson, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep: Caught my eye in 2020 as a freshman when he ran with the Stoney boys for much of their dual. He’s accomplished so much since, twice top-30 in Oakland County, two top-10’s here in Region 16.

Cooper Grzeskowiak, Goodrich: Could be leading a young Goodrich squad to an appearance in November. With his great experience here, crossing the tape in 8^th after being projected 12^th, the young Martians will have great inspiration to follow.

Nik Shilling, Ortonville Brandon: Seriously established himself as an 800m this past spring, capturing 12^th place in Oakland County with a time of 2:01.

Zoe Hoke, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep: 5:18 in the 1600m as a freshman gave us wonder as to what Zoe could do on the grass. She more than proved herself this past fall, breaking 20:00 three times, the last of which, a personal best at State.

Cecelia Thorington, Pinckney: Didn’t capture the regional crown as she did in 2020, but grabbed an SEC White trophy instead. Furthered her progression in the 800m this past spring, lowering her best to 2:26.

Abby Walton, Bloomfield Hills Marian: Her 19:58 at State after a season in the high-20’s and 21’s gives a hint to her potential. Another season learning from Coach Pratt could bring out her full potential.

Sophie Endrud, Detroit Country Day: Three-time runner up here. Is perennially underrated but always brings it at the end of the season. Especially in 2020, where she placed 12^th at D2 State.

Maria Nunning, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep: Once October rolled around, this freshman hit her stride. 20:15 at Gabriel Richard, 20:04 at Northern Michigan, 9^th place here.

Zaryah Griffin, Pinckney: Has qualified for State each of the past two years, and in each of those years, has narrowly missed sub-20. Is this the breakthrough year?

Brigit Foley, Wixom St. Catherine: Her late season ascent is where it’s at. After hovering above 21:00 for much of the season, she busted out a 20:06 at State.

Ava Fahrenkopf, Linden: Knocked almost 2:00 off her freshman best, but most important of all, got to compete on the Eagles team at MIS.

50 Tickets

Regional Previews

Top Tens

• Many on these lists achieved state-level success last fall, usually an All-State bid or top placing at Regionals, but not Clara
• Her season was on that path, full of mid-18’s, on the road to continuing the legacy she established as a freshman, but was unfortunately cut short due to injury
• That freshman year was among the best you’ll see: sub-18, Top-10 in Division 1 XC, 10:32 on the track, Regional XC victory
• The journey back has been gradual, but we’ve been able to see signs that she’s returning to her previous great form
  • Sub-11:00 in the 3200m came at three points throughout the season, showing those efforts were no fluke
  • By mid-May, she had run 5:02 in the 1600m, my guess is if she ran that fresh in June, she would have been sub-5
• And how could I forget? The TRIATHLONS
  • You’ll have to excuse me, I’m well-versed in finding running results, triathlon not so much
  • 6^th at Junior Americas, 6^th at Flatland, 2^nd at Tri Monroe
  • I don’t know much, but a 19:54 after swimming and cycling seems pretty dang good
• Anyhow, it’s been a journey back, sometimes the slower the better, the more appreciative we’ll be when Clara is back on stage in Brooklyn come fall

Grade	Name	Time	Rating	Meet	Course	Date
10	Clara James-Heer	18:59.7	146.4	Ottawa Hills	Riverside Park	17-Sep
10	Clara James-Heer	18:32.8	143.1	OK White 2	Riverside Park	22-Sep
10	Clara James-Heer	18:37.2	148.9	Cougar Falcon	Gainey Fields	25-Sep
10	Clara James-Heer	18:31.9	148.4	Bluejay	Shepherd HS	2-Oct
10	Clara James-Heer	19:21.2	136.9	Portage	Portage West MS	9-Oct

Grade	Name	Rating	Meet	Course	Date
9	Clara James-Heer	152.4	OK White (GF)	Gainey Fields	16-Sep
9	Clara James-Heer	154.6	Ottawa Hills	Riverside Park	18-Sep
9	Clara James-Heer	154.3	OK White 2	Lowell HS	23-Sep
9	Clara James-Heer	158.8	Cougar Falcon	Gainey Fields	26-Sep
9	Clara James-Heer	159.3	Allendale Falcon	Allendale HS	3-Oct
9	Clara James-Heer	154.9	Bengals	Riverside Park	9-Oct
9	Clara James-Heer	149.4	OK White Championship	Byron Center West MS	14-Oct
9	Clara James-Heer	149.0	PR 2	Cedar Springs ES	24-Oct
9	Clara James-Heer	152.2	D1 Reg 1	Buckley HS	31-Oct
9	Clara James-Heer	157.7	D1 State	MIS	6-Nov

• The one major exception
• Everyone knows (or should know) that these rankings are all numbers
  • XC ratings, projected improvements based on past runners, track times converted to future XC ratings – these lists are all formulas
• But Thomas throws a wrench into all those – where do you put a kid that couldn’t break 17:00 in the fall, but runs 4:12 as a sophomore (which would be a state record if not for Seth Norder and Brendan Herger)?
• I believe this is the best spot and I’m confident those below and above would agree
• If you followed Thomas’s meteoric rise, you know his past and story, his first block of consistent training was this winter and spring, the times just kept rolling
  • First it was a 4:39 indoors in January, then sub-10 in early February, then 4:24, all following a linear progression that kept going until he reached 4:12/9:19
• What I found astounding was looking at Thomas’s times as a freshman, a true show of how far he’s come, only breaking 20:00 once
• The atmosphere in Anchor Bay is tremendous, no doubt spurred by Tom’s jaw-dropping performances
  • But from afar, I can tell it’s drawn more from the camaraderie as a team – and in a few weeks we’ll see how much Tom and the Tars can throw a wrench into the Macomb County traditional standings

Grade	Name	Time	Rating	Meet	Course	Date
10	Thomas Westphal	17:58.4	164.5	Anchor Bay EB	Anchor Bay HS	2-Sep
10	Thomas Westphal	17:26.7	173.8	Muskrat Classic	Algonac HS	11-Sep
10	Thomas Westphal	18:22.0	164.0	MAC White 1	Port Huron Central MS	14-Sep
10	Thomas Westphal	18:08.7	165.1	Spartan	Forest Akers	17-Sep
10	Thomas Westphal	18:05.5	169.8	Cleverley Friday Night	Anchor Bay HS	24-Sep
10	Thomas Westphal	17:50.0	165.7	MAC White 2	Warren Mott HS	28-Sep
10	Thomas Westphal	17:29.9	170.7	MAC Division	Metro Beach	5-Oct
10	Thomas Westphal	17:45.5	172.2	Macomb County	Freedom Hill	16-Oct
10	Thomas Westphal	18:47.3	172.6	9 Anchor Bay	Anchor Bay HS	29-Oct

Grade	Name	Rating	Meet	Course	Date
9	Thomas Westphal	112.7	MAC White	Port Huron MS	15-Sep
9	Thomas Westphal	98.5	Macomb County	Freedom Hill	9-Oct
9	Thomas Westphal	114.0	MAC White Division	Metro Beach	15-Oct

Regional Previews

50 Tickets

Top Tens

Where: Goodells County Park

I like this little course. You’ve got a tiny horseshoe-shaped hill that you’ll run up twice. A woodsy section. Plenty of different footing, along with many turns. Tends to run slightly fast come regional time.

2021 Boys: St. Clair (12^th), Yale (15^th), Armada (29^th)

2021 Girls: Warren Regina (9^th), Croswell-Lexington (25^th), Marysville (20^th)

Looking back to last year’s regional preview, I’m struck at how accurate it was. I’m kidding, I’m struck by how well the Cros-Lex girls moved up. Eva Thompson, at least to my knowledge, hadn’t run a lick of cross country before her breakout freshman year. Abagayle Barkley wasn’t even on my radar before the season, she only dropped a mere 2:00 from her freshman best. It’s those kind of awe-inspiring sophomore seasons we live for. Who will do it this year?

I know someone from St. Clair, Yale, or Warren Regina will undergo that transformation. The tradition breeds more tradition, and when you see a kid like Sam Vitale or Lukas Kriesch put in the work and see the pay off or even a Grace Zdankiewicz who continually plugs away, you can’t help but feel the need to wake up every morning and strive for success.

Top 25 Boys Teams: Yale (9^th), St. Clair (17^th)

Top 25 Girls Teams: Warren Regina (25^th)

Here, I’m writing at least a little anecdote about kids that are in the top-15 but aren’t freshman, in the 50 Tickets, or on Top 10 teams. The only athletes being eliminated here are the Yale boys, which is great, MORE SUPERB ATHLETES TO WRITE ABOUT. Want to spread love but also not overwork myself. All in all, my estimation is through all these previews, I’ll be writing at least a sentence about 1000+ kids.

Camden Khon, Armada: The defending regional champ. Had a solid track season, highlighted by a massive personal best in the 1600m (4:51 to 4:32) and a state qualifier in the 3200m.

Carter Boullard, St. Clair: This spring was Carter’s first foray into track and boy did he rock anything under a mile. The 800m seemed to be his prime event, where he finished 2^nd at Regionals in 2:00.

David Harris, St. Clair: Has gradually moved his way up the Saint ranks, growing into a role on their vaunted varsity outfit. What started as a career in the 19’s has turned into a kid that continually hits sub-17:00.

Dylan Distelrath, St. Clair: His track season was cut short early, but was on pace to be miles better than his freshman year. 5:11 at the Barnyard was a 30 second improvement from the spring of ’21.

Riley Andrews, Armada: Showed considerable progress in both the 1600m and 3200m. Knocked more than 20 seconds off each personal best.

Jamison Snay, Macomb Lutheran North: Big moves up the standings in his championship races. Jamison moved up 38(!) spots in Macomb County, from 61^st to 23^rd and moved from 35^th into 14^th at Regionals, good enough to continue his season one more week.

Brewer Snay, Macomb Lutheran North: Gotta run your 18:0x’s before you smash that wall. Brewer ran three races between 18:00 and 18:10. His 3200m from this spring is a great indicator that 18:00 will be an afterthought. His final six races were all sub-11.

Joe Edgemon, St. Clair: Turned over a new leaf come championship season. The new level started at the MAC Division Meet, where Joe ran 18:10. Three more sub-18:30s followed, setting up a senior year to remember.

Eva Thompson, Croswell-Lexington: Numerous high places at important races. 2^nd at Thumb Area, 3^rd in this Region. Paid off those high places with a personal best at State, a 19:52.

Kennedy Roskopp, Warren Regina: Just call her Miss Consistency. Final seven races were all of the sub-21 variety. But she’ll enter a new dimension this fall, evidenced by her 11:59 on the track.

Morgan Newton, Croswell-Lexington: In 2020, she broke 22:00 once. In 2021, she didn’t run a race OVER 22:00. That sort of jump is a major reason the Pioneers solidly made State last fall.

Ava Pergitone, St. Clair: Has been sub-20 EVERY single year for the Saints. Her 6^th place here in 2021 was her best placing at a Regional yet.

Brooklyn Khon, Armada: Just as Joe Edgemon did, Brooklyn entered a new stratosphere come October. A 20:38 at Macomb County paved the way to three efforts around the 20:00 mark and a regional championship.

Elizabeth Ambroggio, Warren Regina: A major factor in Regina’s surprise 9^th place State finish. Placed 25 spots ahead of expectation, enough for the Saddlelites to leapfrog at least three teams.

Olivia Ebel, Macomb Lutheran North: You never see this double too often. Olivia completed the rare 1600m/300h double at many points throughout the season. At the Macomb County meet, she placed top-8 in both. But the 5:34 in the 1600m is the best predictor of cross country success, which she’s had plenty.

Anne May, Macomb Lutheran North: Anne hit the jackpot at the State Meet. After running 20:35 as a freshman, her personal best hovered around that mark for nearly two years. But in one race, she lowered her best to 20:11 and set the stage to lower it once again this fall.

Brianna Albers, Richmond: I’ll have to go back and look at my full projections for D2 State. Brianna wasn’t projected top-50 and I seriously doubt she was top-100. But throw those out the window, Brianna sped to a 31^st place, hitting the line in 19:22. If that’s any indication, she will outperform these rankings. nvm, found them. I had her 114^th.

Casidhe Flesher, Marine City: Quite an impressive array of events and times for Casidhe on the oval. She finished 2^nd in the MAC Blue 200m, 4^th in the 1600m as well.

Grace Clemens, North Branch: Always love the sprinters that come out for cross country. Grace gives a ton to the sport and if she keeps piling on the strength work, sub-26 and sub-60 are in the cards. For now, enjoy a girl who can run under 21:00 that you don’t want around you during the final 100m.

Jenna Denver, Imlay City: Followin’ in her sister’s footsteps, closed her junior year on a tear with four straight races between 20:55 and 21:05.

Natalie Lentine, Warren Regina: We love the gradual drops throughout the year. Started the year on a long course at Lamplighter and a tough one at Michigan Catholic. Great prep for the muddy slog here where she placed 19^th.

Lillian Rutallie, Marysville: Brought along slowly during her freshman year, eventually ending up the 3^rd girl on a Viking squad that finished 20^th at State.

I also want to give a shoutout to Karlie Schlaud. It was an honor to meet you the other day. The mere fact that you came into a running store miles away from home means you care. And that caring definitely led to a track season where you set personal bests in the 800m and 1600m, setting yourself up for a senior year where your goals are 100% within reach.