Uncategorized

Sub 5/Sub 6 Challenge

This concept is borrowed and inspired from a similar contest on ILXCTF. Essentially, in the 1600m, I’m taking the amount of boys that are sub-5:00 and girls that are sub-6:00, then ranking the amount by school.

Track gives much more of a standard measurement, of course there are 200m/300m indoor facilities and a drastic difference between weather in May vs. March, but universally, one is going to find common goals based on time barriers.

That’s where this informal contest leads. These are pulled off the pdf results. Most names match with those in my XC database. There are a few misspellings that I tried to correct. There are also athletes that didn’t run XC, but are running track. And many speedy middle/elementary schoolers.

For now, I’m listing schools that have 3 or more sub-5/sub-6 athletes. If your school has three and it’s not listed or is missing someone, likely it’s one of those misspellings or database misses, just let me know.

***2020 SEASON ONLY***

GIRLS

East Grand Rapids
GradeNameTime
12Anna Petr4:58.0
10Ainsley Workman5:13.6
12Margaret Coney5:14.2
9Abigail Petr5:15.6
11Hannah Bodine5:21.0
9Camryn Bodine5:32.4
10Katie Edison5:43.5
11Brynn Edison5:53.5
Petoskey
GradeNameTime
11Emma Squires5:04.2
11Cambrie Smith5:16.5
10Noel VanderWall5:31.7
12Ahna VanderWall5:34.5
10Caroline Farley5:38.4
11Sarah Liederbach5:53.4
Hudsonville
GradeNameTime
10Kate Heidema5:50.2
12Jenna Kral5:52.1
10Emma Heidema5:56.6
12Sophia Lirio5:58.1
Ann Arbor Pioneer
GradeNameTime
10Sarah Forsyth5:02.1
10Cookie Baugh5:10.2
11Anna Dudek5:42.2
Hart
GradeNameTime
11Savannah Ackley5:20.6
10Audrianna Enns5:26.8
11Lynae Ackley5:42.9

BOYS

Ann Arbor Pioneer
GradeNameTime
10Owen Johnson4:33.0
10Matt Ruud4:37.8
10Fred Wallace4:50.5
11Ben Jakabcsin4:53.4
11Peter Bonasso4:56.7
10Levi Straszewski4:58.4
11Kevin Dancey4:59.0
Brighton
GradeNameTime
12Jack Spamer4:15.5
12Scott Spaanstra4:24.5
12Zacahry Stewart4:28.2
11Brendan Buckner4:52.7
12Ethan Lee4:54.1
10Quinn Cullen4:58.6
Benzie Central
GradeNameTime
9Hunter Jones4:35.9
12Dustin Finkhouse4:42.2
12Connor McLaren4:56.8
East Grand Rapids
GradeNameTime
12Evan Bishop4:19.0
12Elijah Becker4:32.7
11Enzo Metz4:37.7
  
Holland Christian
GradeNameTime
10Parker Lambers4:36.8
12Alex Mitchell4:41.9
12Jacob DeBoer4:46.1
Hudsonville
GradeNameTime
12Steven St. John4:25.8
12Nathan Conkel4:40.9
12Ryan Nibbelink4:45.4
Otsego
GradeNameTime
12Hunter Zartman4:20.1
11Colin Mulder4:28.6
11Andrew Bickel4:51.6
Pinckney
GradeNameTime
10Caleb Jarema4:37.5
11Tylor Morgan4:54.1
12Jack Sleeman4:56.2
Saugatuck
GradeNameTime
10Max Sharnas4:38.1
10Adam Martinson4:48.5
10Tristan Ashley4:50.4
Zeeland West
GradeNameTime
12Luke Munsey4:36.3
11Corban Hauch4:45.0
10Mateo Quintanilla4:51.9
Uncategorized

2020 Preseason Rankings: v2

This is the second installment in the preseason rankings. The first version included returning runners only. This version takes those returning runners and adds in their projected improvement.

Projected improvement was calculated in two ways. One, looking at the difference between groups of similar runners (let’s say freshman boys between 170-175), removing anomalies, and then seeing where they rated the next year. The other looked at those who improved their ratings from 2018 to 2019, then assumed they’ll continue on that same pattern for 2020.

These do not include incoming freshman. I’m working on that now and will release another set before track begins. Enjoy!

DIVISION 4

BoysRankGirls
Unionville-Sebewaing1Kalamazoo Christian
Carson City-Crystal2St Philip Catholic Central
Webberville3Bridgman
Mason County Eastern4Clarkston Everest Collegiate
Dansville5Hillsdale Academy
Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart6Johannesburg-Lewiston
Concord7Mt. Pleasant Sacred Heart
Deckerville8Muskegon Western Michigan Christian
Beal City9Allen Park Cabrini
Bridgman10Adrian Lenawee Christian
The Potter’s House11Plymouth Christian Academy
Breckenridge12Hudson
Morrice13Owendale-Gagetown
Kalamazoo Christian14Ellsworth
Mayville15Fowler
Mendon16Morenci
Allen Park Cabrini17Libertas Christian
Saranac18Leland
Lawrence19Grand Traverse Academy
Johannesburg-Lewiston20Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary
Bear Lake-Onekama21Lutheran HS Westland
Montabella22Gaylord St. Mary
Frankfort23Fruitport Calvary Christian
Cassopolis Ross Beatty24East Jordan
Maple City Glen Lake25Saranac

DIVISION 3

BoysRankGirls
Traverse City St. Francis1Hart
Hart2Grandville Calvin Christian
Charlevoix3Shepherd
St. Louis4Benzie Central
Caro5Ithaca
Grandville Calvin Christian6Charlevoix
Saugatuck7Grand Rapids Covenant Christian
Bronson8Clare
Ithaca9St. Louis
Leslie10Traverse City St. Francis
Stockbridge11Reese
McBain12Pewamo-Westphalia
Harbor Springs13Harbor Springs
New Lothrop14Reed City
Shepherd15Kingsley
Hanover-Horton16McBain
Roscommon17Manton
Manistee18Roscommon
Clinton19Kent City
Manchester20Boyne City
Benzie Central21Jackson Lumen Christi
Parchment22Bloomingdale
Montague23Stockbridge
Quincy24Galesburg-Augusta
Manton25Leslie

DIVISION 2

BoysRankGirls
Fremont1Petoskey
Otsego2East Grand Rapids
St. Johns3Otsego
Sparta4Grand Rapids Christian
St. Clair5Frankenmuth
Yale6Cadillac
Battle Creek Harper Creek7Tecumseh
Linden8Warren Regina
Adrian9Forest Hills Eastern
Ionia10Grand Rapids South Christian
Chelsea11Mason
Flint Powers Catholic12Dearborn Divine Child
Lansing Catholic13Plainwell
Spring Lake14Sparta
Forest Hills Eastern15Parma Western
Grand Rapids Christian16Freeland
East Grand Rapids17Haslett
Fowlerville18Linden
Lake Fenton19Chelsea
Dearborn Divine Child20St. Johns
Holland Christian21Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg
Goodrich22Fremont
New Boston Huron23Flint Powers Catholic
Tecumseh24Bloomfield Hills Marian
Allegan25Marysville

DIVISION 1

BoysRankGirls
Romeo1Traverse City Central
Ann Arbor Pioneer2Brighton
Caledonia3Northville
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek4Salem
Salem5Ann Arbor Pioneer
Northville6Plymouth
Hartland7Romeo
Rockford8Troy
Highland-Milford9Saline
Macomb Dakota10Rockford
Traverse City Central11Canton
Farmington12Birmingham Seaholm
Portage Northern13Caledonia
Rochester Adams14Holland West Ottawa
Grand Haven15Temperance Bedford
Portage Central16Forest Hills Northern
Novi17Jenison
Pinckney18DeWitt
Lake Orion19Highland-Milford
Saline20Grand Blanc
Brighton21Royal Oak
East Kentwood22Bay City Western
Jenison23Portage Central
Livonia Franklin24Flushing
Zeeland West25Bloomfield Hills
Uncategorized

Meet Reviews: Macomb County Championship

Projections
Results

ADJUSTMENTS

Girls: 14 sec.
Boys: 14 sec.

I felt that given the day and conditions, these were a bit higher.  As the season played out, that seemed to be the case.  Romeo didn’t perform as highly as the numbers projected, which is odd given their success and ability to peak.  Metro Beach has commonly been about 10-15 seconds faster than this at the beginning of October.  In coming years, I’ll likely use the reference runner method more often, which will hopefully attain a bit higher accuracy. 

ACCURACY

Girls Top 10: 9 of 10
Boys Top 10: 9 of 10
Girls Medal Stand: 18 of 21
Boys Medal Stand: 19 of 21

GIRLS

For a few years now, Romeo has been the class of Macomb County.  They have a great setup over there, country roads, a strong feeder program, and steady leadership at the top.  Projections had them winning the meet, but they scored much lower than anticipated.  Maddie Malczewski’s return played a major role in lowering that score.  Her track season had been her best (2:16, 10:56) yet, but she suffered an early summer stress fracture.  High school injuries aren’t worth derailing a running career, and it appears sitting her out until October was the right call.  She ended the season returning to the medal stand at MIS. 

Ella Fulmer was a huge reason in Utica’s rise.  Her September results bring about an issue with projections.  Her 28:12 at Old Skool was a large factor in her 54th place projection.  These sort of results, are they part of a larger pattern or just an anomaly?  Given Ella’s career, we know it’s more of the latter.  Anyhow, at this point in the season, her 20:46 was a 45 second season record.  She ended up nabbing the last spot at a competitive Goodells Regional, matching her PR (19:50) in the process. 

BOYS

Look at that, Romeo again.  One of the great advantages of having depth is the added security in case of subpar, or even average races.  That added security can be a solid performance or even an outstanding one.  Jack Wilson rebounded from a subpar race at Spartan with a victory here.  Joey Tavalieri pulled off an upset last year (recovering from anemia during this season, watch out for him in the spring), Wilson was able to cruise to a win this time around.  He ran one of the more patient races at MIS, finishing 8th when he may not have even been top 30 entering the infield. 

Romeo may have a challenger next year.  As of now, I have Macomb Dakota as #10 in the 2020 Projections (the update will be released after Christmas).  The progression of Jacob Harberts is a major factor, his 16:35 here was a 19 second PR.  Even that improvement couldn’t have predicted his 9th place regional finish.  Many kids hit times that were out of their respective worlds, Harberts may have been the most incredulous.  We all know that 4th and 5th runners play an important role in scoring.  Both Cameron Stermer and Nathan Vohs ran season PRs, enabling Dakota to move ahead of a crowded pack.