Last summer’s writeup took note of Kyah’s ability to surge in her championship season.
Her junior version ran at a high level all season long. Ecstatic how she performed at the end of her sophomore year, she opened her junior year even faster, running an 18:13 personal best at Saranac. A month later, her first jaunt into the 17’s at Shepherd. Two more personal bests would follow, one at Portage, then another at MITCA. Her race at State wasn’t her highest rated one of the season nor her best time ever, but it was her best mark at MIS (18:02 vs. 18:59) and best place at the State Finals (3rd vs. 9th/27th).
I know you already know, but she once again peaked at the right time in track. Her 11:09 at the State Finals was her 2nd best time ever, 24 sec. faster than her sophomore state self, and 4 places better than in 2023.
Last year’s ticket should have included that during his freshman year, Thomas set the Alma school record. Following a freshman state final race that maybe wasn’t his greatest, Larson came back with authority, etching his name in Panther history.
One might assume that a freshman record holder would hold a selfish attitude towards that accomplishment. By all accounts, Thomas has been the complete opposite, a teammate with a fiery racing attitude and support for others. On several occasions last fall, Baltierra and him have exchanged the record, with the mark currently held by Ezekiel.
What I’ve loved to watch is Larson’s ability to bounce back. Battling a cold, he once again didn’t have the XC State Finals race that he was capable of. How did he respond? Running significant PRs on the track and leading his Panthers to a medal in the 4×8.
What’s to come in the future? If nothing else, being a great influence on his Alma peers. But I see some D2 frontrunnin’ too.
*Quick estimate is that Dansville would’ve been 21st in D4 with their state times
I wanted to change things up a bit regarding the Top Ten Teams. Over the past two summers, this has been a solid feature in the hype department, giving highlight to many kids on superb teams. One aspect I’ve felt that I’ve lacked is explaining how each team relates in comparison to others. I’ll attempt to do that here!
Included features are:
Strengths – characteristics making that team a contender. Question Marks – any person or team that I write about here, I’m 100% confident you’ll shore up this “weaker” spot by year’s end. But this is a section that’ll look into why a team could be beat. Looking Ahead – how the team might fare in their championship meets (conference, county, regional, state)
#1 Hillsdale Academy
Strengths
The best 5th man in D4. Considering the Colts had all seven under 18:00 at MIS and five of those seven return, there’s a good bet that their 5th guy will be in the mid-17’s. After all, on top of the three All-Staters, this is the path they took to a title. Henry Lindley crossed the line in 56th (team scoring), the lowest 5th man in the field.
Question Marks
Calvary Christian could possibly have their 3rd and 4th boys in ahead of Hillsdale’s 3rd. That’s just one team, as I have HA’s 3 and 4 better than any other D4 team.
Looking Ahead
Should be smooth sailin’ on their path toward Brooklyn.
#2 Holland Calvary Christian
Strengths
Far and away, the best depth through four runners. Young depth too, mind you, plenty of chances to grow. The Crusaders put four under 17:15 and all of them in the top-40. Also, their 5th-7th boys are very close, increasing the odds that one of the three has a good day.
Question Marks
We’re splitting hairs here, but they lack a low figure. On the other hand, with the top kids running in close proximity, one or two could break out.
Looking Ahead
It doesn’t appear that Calvary is in a conference. They’re running at Kent Ottawa, which has an interesting format this year! Region 31 should be easy peasy. To make a short story long, the Crusaders should be able to work through their schedule fairly easily to peak at State.
#3 Harbor Springs
Strengths
Pure quality through five. Can easily envision a scenario (especially if MIS runs fast like last October) where the Rams put all of their scorers under 17:40.
Question Marks
In a weird way, not having a low stick? Harbor Springs will definitely save points in the back, but will likely have 15+ points from their 1st guy, other top teams will be in the single digits.
Looking Ahead
As the only D4 team in the new Northern Shores Conference, you’d expect the Rams to be near the bottom. I don’t know if they can hang with Charlevoix, but I expect the complete opposite, top-3 at least. As of now, they’re heavy favorites in Region 28, at season’s end with PSM and J-L always adding kids, we’ll see. On the Brooklyn scene, the Rams appear to be a clear #3 right now.
#4 Mason County Eastern
Strengths
Alex Tyndall up front is a sure low stick. Their 2nd-4th kids appear to be ahead of much of the division as well.
Question Marks
The question is who is on their team. A commenter over the summer let me know that with Manistee Catholic closing and MCE being a co-op team with them, the Cardinal roster could be depleted. Ol’ MIXCSR over here prefers simplicity and will act as if every possible returner will run for MCE.
Looking Ahead
The WMD, along with the NWC and MIAC, is one of Michigan’s great small conferences. 2023’s edition had some of the better individuals in D4, beyond those individuals, MCE swept up. Ain’t seeing much opportunity for a change. Class D will of course be predictive towards the State Finals. Hillsdale Academy is usually an attendant, so a win is probably out of the question. And Region 29 combines the strength of the NWC and WMD. The Cardinals have more leeway than others in the region, but less than other top teams in the state might have in their respective regions.
#5 Harbor Beach
Strengths
Depth extending to their 4th man. By season’s end, Owen Wruble was hitting low-18’s, then he nearly got under 5:00 in track. Currently have him behind the above teams’ 4th men, but greatly ahead of every team ranked lower. Roggenbuck as a fifth runner ain’t bad either.
Question Marks
Anyone beyond their scorers. A premium will be placed upon the Pirate scorers to cross the line near their best.
Looking Ahead
For 2023, Harbor Beach won the GTC East by placing 5 in the top-13. Barring catastrophe, I don’t see that changing. Thumb Area looks to be interesting. I don’t recall many D4 teams challenging for the win. As it appears now, Yale will be their main competition. Region 35 is detailed here, the race could have four teams in the top-25, HB now seems as if they could put 5 in front of many 3’s. At MIS, they’re one of the few teams to return everyone from their top-5.
#6 Maple City Glen Lake
Strengths
Their top three. Sutherland has sub-16 in his blood, both McCaw and Feeney should be in the 16’s. In last year’s ultra-tough Region 29, the Lakers had the lowest score through 3.
Question Marks
Their region. With #16 Leland sitting at the projected 4th spot, they’ll have to be on top of their game. Of course, this applies to their competition too. Beyond Feeney, the depth appears a bit slower than the teams listed above. On the other hand, their coaches have experience in development and most of these kids are underclassmen.
Looking Ahead
The NWC, pound for pound, is a superb conference. Benzie Central is the competition, Frankfort and Leland lurking behind. Benzie’s depth helps them in comparison to the state. Depth matters less in a smaller race. Region 29 is among the toughest in the state. The Lakers will be tested prior if they’re able to advance to MIS.
#7 Royal Oak Shrine
Strengths
Abe, of course. The Knights are also solid through 3 boys. Bowker and Lopez were low-18/high-17 kids late. Experience, as well, all of the projected scorers are juniors and seniors.
Question Marks
Health. Joseph Kemp appears to be running a ton this summer, if he were able to complete last season on the trajectory he was on (18:40 at Holly), the Knights would’ve likely placed in D4’s Top-10.
Looking Ahead
Without Kemp or Soma, Shrine placed 19th in Oakland County. I can see top-15 happening, perhaps even higher. Always hard to tell which CHSL division is which, but I think they’re the best of the smaller Catholic schools in the immediate Detroit area, which also comprises much of Region 36. In terms of the State, Oakland County should be a great look into what the Knights can do in a large race.
#8 Kalamazoo Hackett
Strengths
The Irish’s top-two. They’re in a competition with Mesick for the lowest scoring thru two guys. Siems is the key here, his late season form last year resulted in a 4th place at Region 32 and 51st place at State.
Question Marks
Spots beyond the top two. Interesting mix of newcomers and experience. Kellen Siems is just a sophomore and Alexander Dumont had an outstanding track season. In need of one more guy.
Looking Ahead
The SAC is probably controlled by Saugatuck, but I can foresee Constantine, Black River, and Hackett battling for second. Region 32 will be another test, River Valley looking to avenge last year. And the Irish just have good vibes at the state level, both last year and the way those 4×8 boys performed a few months back.
#9 Dansville
Strengths
Theodore Davis. Guy has performed on the big stage all of his career, so that’s one spot that’s guaranteed. Their incoming class contains five freshmen that were under 13:00 at the middle school level.
Question Marks
The incoming freshmen could also be spun as a question mark. Not a known quantity, although the times certainly align with being a D4 contributor. Fifth spot is a little weaker, but appears to be around the 19-flat mark.
Looking Ahead
In the CMAC with D3 teams, especially great ones such as Bath and P-W, hurts their chances of conference glory. Region 33 is listed here, where the Aggies are decent favorites over Whitmore Lake. At the state stage, I feel they’re sort of polarizing. There are scenarios where the freshmen exceed expectation, where top-5 isn’t out of the question. There are also scenarios where they don’t pan out, but Dansville has been a solid culture for years now.
#10 Three Oaks River Valley
Strengths
Their top-3 guys. Rogers, Gibson, and Slavens were all sub-18 last year. All three were in the top-10 at Region 32 and top-100 at State.
Question Marks
The fifth spot. Currently looks to be in the 19:30’s, which shouldn’t be a huge hindrance at the local level, but could be an issue at the state scene.
Looking Ahead
BCS should be an easy sweep. The Mustangs aren’t shown to be at Berrien County on a.net, but should be top-4. There doesn’t appear to be one standout team in the SW corner. Region 32 is detailed here. Finally, at State, 10th seems appropriate, but when comparing against the 27 teams (instead of the entire division), the 5th runner issue is lessened.
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 