11/12 on the team projections with one exception – the Williamston girls. The pre-race projections had the Hornets in 5th place, 13 points out of 3rd, and with a 17% chance of qualifying. Projected two spots out, but still having a chance, the margins were expected to be tight. Williamston had season bests from six of their seven girls and a personal best from Reggie Cooke, Kate Duffy, and Madison Thomas. Sophia Schafer did not obtain a personal best, but her performance may have been the most crucial. The junior went sub-20 for the second time this season, a much faster performance than the 20:30+’s that defined her early season.
Beyond Williamston, a few others had great races on Friday:
Anna Halliday, Howell – came in projected 26th, placed 16th. Coming into Friday’s race, Halliday’s personal best had been 19:35. Before this fall, it was over 20:00! By improving nearly a minute from her sophomore best, Halliday gets to extend her season by another week.
Ariston Dallas, Owosso – what a journey for the Owosso junior. This was his first race at the regional level since his freshman year, a season that concluded with a 20:48 and 73rd place on this DeWitt course. Fast forward two years later, past the incomplete sophomore season, past the many 17-min. efforts of this fall, and you land on a masterful regional performance. 16:40, 20+ personal best, first sub-17 ever, and the last spot heading to MIS.
For the Division 1 Boys, all the teams and individuals qualified as projected. So I guess I gotta give it to the Brighton boys, who were a bit of an underdog at 37%. Two names jump out immediately as impactful: Roarke MacArthur and Evan Cummings. Both were within 10 sec. of their PR (both set at Gabriel Richard) and both finished about 10 spots ahead of where they were thought to be. Enough to make up the 18-point margin that they had in victory as the Bulldogs roll into State.
My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!
The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.
An explanation from previous years that still holds true:
Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
Tanner Time
Tanner Rating
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev.
15:30
210
15:45
205
16:00
200
16:15
195
16:30
190
200
7.91
MIXCSR Time
MIXCSR Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev.
16:09
197
16:12
196
16:15
195
16:18
194
16:21
193
195
1.58
Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
Race
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev
Tanner Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev
MIXCSR Rating
1
200
7.9
202.1
195
1.6
195.6
2
200
7.9
196.2
195
1.6
194.1
3
200
7.9
190.0
195
1.6
199.2
4
200
7.9
193.4
195
1.6
192.5
5
200
7.9
206.8
195
1.6
195.7
6
200
7.9
201.8
195
1.6
196.1
7
200
7.9
171.6
195
1.6
194.9
8
200
7.9
189.2
195
1.6
195.9
9
200
7.9
205.5
195
1.6
197.0
10
200
7.9
203.8
195
1.6
192.6
11
200
7.9
192.3
195
1.6
196.5
12
200
7.9
196.9
195
1.6
196.4
13
200
7.9
198.5
195
1.6
195.6
14
200
7.9
203.2
195
1.6
194.1
15
200
7.9
193.9
195
1.6
192.6
16
200
7.9
199.3
195
1.6
193.2
17
200
7.9
208.7
195
1.6
194.2
18
200
7.9
213.7
195
1.6
194.6
19
200
7.9
212.6
195
1.6
197.1
20
200
7.9
206.3
195
1.6
193.9
I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
At the regional level, the projections were pretty darn accurate. I gave qualifying odds for the top-3 spots and ended up thinking I’d be accurate on 198 of the teams, the final total ended up being 197. The State level was a different story, where a few wholly unexpected teams hit the podium.
With that in mind, these simulations are a bit different than last year. Last year’s sample filtered out a runner’s lesser performances, which was fine in the regional setting, but didn’t account for the otherworldly MIS efforts that the Saline/Saugatuck boys had. In an attempt to capture more of the variant State Final performances, the samples for 2025 contain all of the invites and championship meets, hopefully giving more of an idea of how one performs when going to the well.
I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race over the past 4 weeks. This will attempt to account for injuries.
Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.
I have to warn you. All of the writeups below concern the boys’ races. It’s not as if I don’t care about the girls, I think my volume of work over the years more than speaks for itself. But in many cases, the places appear to be set in stone. In others, the guys projections are more chaotic.
What this also means is that when an unexpected win or qualifier occurs, it’ll be the story of that region or even the division. Check back on Sunday to see who defied the math.
REGION 1
Any Big Battles?
Can a Hudsonville or a Forest Hills Northern pull the upset?
All year, both Grand Haven and Rockford have been a bit of a step above. Their team averages per meet are among the highest of the four teams. At Portage, the two squads finished ahead of Hudsonville and FHN.
But the gap is closing with Hudsonville, who in the OK Red Championship, were 15 points back of Rockford and a mere 6 away from Grand Haven. All of the Eagle scorers found a PR on the Riverside Park course, a definite boost heading into regional action.
Forest Hills Northern will hope for the same breakthrough, having all of their OK White Championship scorers at 17-flat or below.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Hudsonville
49
1.3
77
95+
2
Jenison
64
2.2
18
95+
3
Rockford
69
2.6
5
95+
4
Forest Hills Northern
96
3.9
7
5
Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills
138
5.3
6
Grand Haven
154
5.8
7
Grandville
205
7.1
8
Greenville
234
8.4
9
Muskegon Mona Shores
235
8.5
10
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
273
10.4
11
Grand Rapids Northview
276
10.5
12
Grand Rapids Union
393
12.0
13
Wyoming
424
13.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Jenison
60
1.0
95+
95+
2
Rockford
94
2.6
88
3
Grand Haven
98
3.0
75
4
Hudsonville
114
4.2
28
5
Grandville
123
5.0
6
Forest Hills Northern
128
5.3
6
7
Grand Rapids Northview
160
7.0
8
Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills
205
8.4
9
Greenville
211
8.6
10
Muskegon Mona Shores
259
10.0
11
Grand Rapids Union
326
11.0
12
Wyoming
371
12.2
13
Muskegon
402
13.4
14
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
406
13.5
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Cassie Karasinski
Hudsonville
1.5
2
9
Grace Snyder
Hudsonville
2.9
3
11
Paige McMeans
Jenison
3.1
4
11
Daisy Cox
Rockford
5.4
5
10
Morgan Sanders
Rockford
7.4
6
12
Gracelin Martin
Greenville
7.5
7
11
Chloe Purwin
Hudsonville
8.0
8
10
Madeline Aleisa
Jenison
8.9
9
9
Lexie Snyder
Hudsonville
11.2
10
11
Madeleine Hengeveld
Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills
11.6
11
10
Jillian Lewakowski
Rockford
12.1
12
10
Jaclyn Charbauski
Forest Hills Northern
13.9
13
12
Cianah Budnik-Ramos
Grand Haven
14.0
14
12
Willa Prinsen
Forest Hills Northern
14.2
15
9
Emma Storey
Jenison
16.7
16
11
Rae Defrang
Rockford
17.2
17
10
Cecelia Wojciakowski
Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills
17.3
18
12
Mackenzie Conner
Jenison
18.3
19
12
Jersi Bilek
Muskegon Reeths-Puffer
19.9
20
10
Mackenzie VanStensel
Grand Rapids Northview
20.4
21
9
Gwyn Faber
Forest Hills Northern
21.1
22
12
Andrea Schwartz
Jenison
23.1
23
12
Macy Guikema
Jenison
23.5
24
10
Amelia Danian
Forest Hills Northern
24.8
25
9
Ariana Elzinga
Grandville
25.3
26
11
Abigail Simpson
Forest Hills Northern
25.7
27
9
Sidney Eaton
Hudsonville
27.0
28
10
Claire Watson
Rockford
27.8
29
9
Camryn Gervais
Grand Haven
29.6
30
11
Reese Defrang
Rockford
30.7
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Caden Livermore
Grandville
1.3
2
11
Luka Hammond
Grand Haven
1.8
3
12
Aron Gal
Grand Haven
5.3
4
12
Kelton Hoover
Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills
6.5
5
11
Josiah Derksen
Rockford
7.2
6
11
Bradley Smies
Hudsonville
7.9
7
10
Chase Sherman
Jenison
9.6
8
12
Liam Bingman
Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills
10.1
9
12
Jacob McDaniel
Grandville
10.2
10
12
Nolan Wenglikowski
Jenison
11.0
11
10
Carter Cooke
Jenison
11.2
12
11
Ethan Burks
Jenison
12.1
13
12
Rhys Holmes
Grand Rapids Northview
16.3
14
10
Luke Bultman
Rockford
16.4
15
12
Hayden Lafferty
Rockford
16.6
16
12
Preston VanOeffelen
Greenville
16.6
17
12
Caleb TeBrake
Grand Rapids Northview
17.9
18
12
Austin Van Ek
Hudsonville
18.0
19
10
Caleb Conner
Jenison
18.3
20
12
Philip Chamberlain
Forest Hills Northern
19.2
21
9
Archer Verhage
Grand Haven
19.6
22
11
Noah Watson
Rockford
20.0
23
9
Sullivan Oberg
Jenison
21.3
24
12
Gabriel Williams
Forest Hills Northern
21.6
25
12
Myles Hendel
Jenison
25.1
26
12
John Truong
Forest Hills Northern
26.2
27
12
Simon Faber
Forest Hills Northern
26.8
28
12
Lucas Dykhouse
Hudsonville
29.4
29
12
Aidan Vermeulen
Hudsonville
30.8
30
11
Aaron Ebels
Grandville
30.9
REGION 2
Any Big Battles?
One of the more chaotic and top-heavy regions you’ll see.
Midland is probably safe. They’ve got seven guys that could score on any of the other teams. Milford is Milford, racing on occasion and being a constant bane of my existence with regard to ratings. Toeing the line on such few instances means that the LVC and Oakland County Championships weigh heavily. The Mavericks won the latter in a rout, beating the closest competition by nearly 40 points. Yet, there’s a world where they don’t advance out of this banger.
Why? Because Traverse City West, Grand Blanc, and Traverse City Central all have teams with top-fives under 17-flat. Central may be a bit underrated, as the most recent major meet for the Trojans involved an upset win over West. The Titans might need to capture a bit of their early-season magic, such as a Pete Moss race where their 4th and 5th runners hit PRs. And Grand Blanc KNOWS they can find their best when traveling to mid-Michigan, as the Bobcats can point to a Bluejay race where they cleared TC Central by 45 points.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Traverse City West
68
1.2
86
95+
2
Hartland
90
2.0
12
95+
3
Traverse City Central
119
3.4
60
4
H.H. Dow
128
3.8
36
5
Bay City Western
155
5.1
6
6
Grand Blanc
177
6.4
7
Mt. Pleasant
198
7.4
8
Lapeer
199
7.6
9
Highland-Milford
225
8.8
10
Holly
245
9.9
11
Midland
267
11.0
12
Davison
276
11.4
13
Alpena
366
13.5
14
Flushing
371
13.6
15
Saginaw Heritage
420
15.0
16
Swartz Creek
500
16.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Midland
67
1.2
81
95+
2
Highland-Milford
95
2.9
9
69
3
Traverse City West
106
3.5
6
43
4
Grand Blanc
106
3.5
49
5
Traverse City Central
117
4.0
39
6
Saginaw Heritage
173
6.6
7
Davison
177
6.8
8
Holly
190
7.5
9
Alpena
260
9.9
10
Hartland
261
9.9
11
Midland Dow
271
10.3
12
Mt. Pleasant
345
12.6
13
Flushing
347
12.6
14
Lapeer
382
13.8
15
Swartz Creek
436
15.1
16
Bay City Western
479
15.9
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
10
Emilia Garces
H.H. Dow
1.4
2
11
Maddie Lindley
Holly
2.3
3
11
Tessa Mascari
Traverse City West
2.9
4
12
Elliana Neuer
Hartland
5.1
5
9
Kaitlyn Berg
Midland
5.5
6
11
Ava Goodman
Hartland
9.4
7
12
Abby Veit
Traverse City West
10.5
8
9
Cecelia Jacobson
Traverse City Central
12.5
9
11
Lydia Powers
Lapeer
13.2
10
12
Lilah Weber
Lapeer
13.3
11
12
Payton Lamb
Traverse City West
13.7
12
10
Julia Bambach
Holly
14.2
13
9
Grace Meyers
Bay City Western
14.9
14
11
Micali Teeple
Grand Blanc
19.0
15
12
Sophia Nunnery
Hartland
19.4
16
9
Lilly Pierce
Mt. Pleasant
20.0
17
12
Sienna Cobb
Traverse City Central
21.3
18
10
Emily Truszkowski
Traverse City Central
22.5
19
12
Peyton Tucker
Traverse City West
23.3
20
10
Jessa Skonieczny
Mt. Pleasant
23.5
21
9
Autumn Luick
H.H. Dow
23.6
22
12
Nevaeh Polovina
Davison
24.2
23
12
Reese Smith
Traverse City West
24.6
24
10
Leighton Basile
Traverse City West
25.1
25
9
Brielle Bastionell
Hartland
26.3
26
10
Kelly Comfort
Traverse City Central
27.0
27
11
Taylor Vogel
Highland-Milford
28.6
28
11
Jaclyn Suderman
Bay City Western
28.6
29
12
Mallory Wilcox
Bay City Western
29.9
30
10
Leah Humphrey
Grand Blanc
31.4
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Kyle O’Rourke
Highland-Milford
1.7
2
10
Todd Tobin
Highland-Milford
4.5
3
9
Tommy McCormick
Grand Blanc
5.2
4
12
Caleb Keller
Traverse City Central
5.9
5
10
Alexander Allen
Alpena
6.6
6
11
Broden Ladd
Holly
7.1
7
11
Cameron Cochran
Midland
9.4
8
11
Evan Fox
Traverse City Central
9.7
9
12
Hayden Murray
Traverse City West
12.0
10
11
Logan Gessford
Midland
12.0
11
12
Jack Steen
Traverse City Central
13.3
12
11
Liam Wierzba
Traverse City West
14.9
13
12
Andrew Worsley
Midland
15.2
14
12
Luke James
Midland
16.3
15
12
Logan Bellinger
Midland
16.6
16
10
Elliot King
Midland
20.2
17
12
William Dean
Grand Blanc
21.2
18
12
Gannon Wheeler
Highland-Milford
21.3
19
12
John Blaskowski
Saginaw Heritage
22.6
20
12
Noah Linstrom
Davison
22.7
21
10
Finn-Frost Grayson
Traverse City West
22.9
22
10
Cole Heikka
Holly
23.2
23
12
Griffin Good
Flushing
26.1
24
11
Levi Mayer
Davison
28.2
25
12
Maximillian Bladzik
Grand Blanc
29.2
26
11
Connor O’Reilly
Davison
30.5
27
9
Austin Hughes
Traverse City West
30.7
28
9
Aiden Doggett
Highland-Milford
30.8
29
11
Matthew Wortley
Saginaw Heritage
30.9
30
12
Charlie Smith
Grand Blanc
31.0
REGION 3
Any Big Battles?
This is the chaos region.
From the League Week Rankings, you have:
#3 Lowell – RCA Champions #4 Kalamazoo Central – SMAC Champions #10 Portage Central – home course advantage #14 Caledonia – OK Green Champions #15 Zeeland West – OK Black Champions #18 East Kentwood – OK Red Champions #21 Holland West Ottawa – winner of the first OK Red Jamboree
All championship squads or those who’ve shown they can race at a championship level.
There are always scenarios where the 4th team has 4 boys in the top-20, but when a field is so elite, that percentage is quite low. As a result, at least four deserving teams will have their season end.
At leeeeeast most of these squads were at Portage, which can give you a picture of how this chaos might play out:
Or it can point to a scenario where Portage Central, Caledonia, and East Kentwood use revenge as a factor in advancing through this utter gauntlet.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Holland West Ottawa
44
1.0
95+
95+
2
Portage Central
78
2.0
95+
3
Zeeland East
103
3.0
95+
4
Zeeland West
133
4.0
5
Byron Center
186
6.2
6
Portage Northern
190
6.2
7
Caledonia
192
6.4
8
Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
217
8.3
9
Forest Hills Central
220
8.8
10
Battle Creek Lakeview
241
9.9
11
East Kentwood
250
10.6
12
Lowell
306
12.1
13
Mattawan
331
12.7
14
Kalamazoo Central
402
14.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Kalamazoo Central
74
1.5
57
95+
2
Lowell
77
1.7
42
95+
3
Zeeland West
129
4.2
34
4
Caledonia
133
4.6
39
5
East Kentwood
136
4.7
12
6
Portage Central
141
5.2
16
7
Holland West Ottawa
156
6.4
8
Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
194
8.4
9
Battle Creek Lakeview
201
8.6
10
Mattawan
232
10.0
11
Forest Hills Central
273
11.0
12
Byron Center
320
12.2
13
Portage Northern
352
13.1
14
Zeeland East
375
13.6
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
10
Ainsley Kelm
Portage Northern
1.7
2
10
Adalyn Raab
Zeeland East
3.1
3
12
Lilah Yoder
Forest Hills Central
3.2
4
12
Ava Porras
Holland West Ottawa
3.7
5
11
Collette Wierks
Holland West Ottawa
5.0
6
10
Mary Dolbow
Holland West Ottawa
8.0
7
12
Olivia Stacy
Portage Northern
8.3
8
12
Ava Lawrence
East Kentwood
8.4
9
10
Avery Scott
Portage Central
9.4
10
10
Gracie Carlisle
Portage Central
10.2
11
11
Lyla Dowling
Holland West Ottawa
10.8
12
9
Hailey Sieler
Forest Hills Central
10.8
13
10
Caralyn Elkins
Zeeland West
12.0
14
10
Julia Welc
Portage Central
16.0
15
11
Ella Wierks
Holland West Ottawa
16.6
16
12
Kailey Mann
Byron Center
18.3
17
12
Taryn DiLaura
Zeeland East
18.4
18
11
Akaela Daman
Caledonia
18.5
19
12
Rhea Mouw
Portage Central
21.5
20
12
Megan Kuzma
Zeeland East
21.6
21
10
Claire Mouw
Portage Central
22.7
22
9
Tessa Albrecht
Zeeland West
23.5
23
10
Chloe Powers
Holland West Ottawa
24.2
24
11
Kaila Keeler
Zeeland West
25.7
25
11
Delilah Marquez
Holland West Ottawa
26.3
26
9
Londyn Schmidt
Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
27.6
27
9
Maddison Guy
Portage Central
28.9
28
12
Evie Kleinheksel
Zeeland West
29.7
29
12
Meredith Cook
Zeeland East
30.9
30
11
Olivia Storteboom
Portage Central
30.9
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Marshall Huhn
Lowell
3.0
2
11
Justin Johnson
East Kentwood
3.8
3
12
Jackson Lam
Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
4.5
4
11
Matii Tarekegn
East Kentwood
5.4
5
12
Andrew Wright
Kalamazoo Central
5.8
6
11
Samuel Baker
Kalamazoo Central
6.8
7
9
Avi Elabed
Lowell
8.6
8
12
Owen Fisher
Mattawan
9.1
9
12
Noah Johnston
Caledonia
10.1
10
12
Cooper Byrne
Lowell
11.7
11
12
Ty Billings
Kalamazoo Central
12.6
12
12
Keagan Smith
Zeeland West
14.3
13
10
Bennett Snapper
Caledonia
14.8
14
12
Marcel Stork
Mattawan
16.9
15
11
Tristan Zhang
Portage Central
18.1
16
10
Karson Lewis
Battle Creek Lakeview
18.7
17
12
Owen Gifford
Portage Central
19.1
18
9
Tanner Smith
Zeeland West
20.5
19
12
Elijah Thompson
Kalamazoo Central
20.8
20
12
Rob Dodd
Zeeland West
21.4
21
10
Marcus Essling
Portage Central
25.4
22
12
Gavin O’Meara
Forest Hills Central
25.7
23
12
Logan Westgate
Portage Central
26.1
24
12
Nicolas Morales – Sanchez
Kalamazoo Loy Norrix
26.3
25
12
Jake Follett
Holland West Ottawa
26.9
26
11
Cody Bromley
Lowell
27.5
27
10
Elijah Demlow
Battle Creek Lakeview
27.7
28
9
Tyler Bromley
Lowell
29.4
29
11
Boston Wilkinson
Holland West Ottawa
31.6
30
10
Sean Thompson
Caledonia
32.6
REGION 4
Any Big Battles?
Brighton is the traditional power throughout time. Team Champs in 2019 and 2021, typically always a top-ten team in D1. Ann Arbor Skyline is a program finding its footing. The ups and downs of the new school are generally trending up and you can see where the vision will lead in the near future. Grand Ledge is having the year, a band of upperclassmen making memories and winning championships.
Centering around Brighton, there are a few common competitions. One major one was in early September on the Averill hills, the Bulldogs having the upper hand over the Comets. The difference there was most evident at the fifth spot, Brighton holding a 10 sec. advantage over their GL counterparts.
Even though I think the Averill ratings are a bit undervalued, that wasn’t the best effort of the year from either team. For Grand Ledge, that might be from Bluejay, where all five scorers were sub-16:35 and for Brighton, that could be Gabriel Richard, where it was all orange under 16:15.
Neither of the squads have had the absolute high of Skyline, who at Holly were able to defeat a crowd of ranked teams. Climbing the Holly hills were a pack of Eagles, their first four ripping 16:30’s and below. It’s been awhile since they’ve reached that level, but it exists.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Brighton
38
1.0
95+
95+
2
Ann Arbor Skyline
65
2.3
95+
3
Okemos
74
2.7
95+
4
Grand Ledge
134
4.4
5
Howell
149
5.5
6
Mason
156
6.0
7
Dexter
169
6.9
8
East Lansing
175
7.3
9
South Lyon
246
9.3
10
South Lyon East
265
9.7
11
Holt
327
11.1
12
Jackson
346
11.9
13
Lansing Waverly
432
13.0
14
Lansing Everett
443
14.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Grand Ledge
67
1.7
49
95+
2
Brighton
67
1.8
37
95+
3
Ann Arbor Skyline
80
2.6
14
95+
4
Dexter
138
4.7
5
East Lansing
150
5.8
6
Howell
150
5.9
7
Okemos
151
5.9
8
Holt
176
7.8
9
South Lyon East
256
9.1
10
South Lyon
286
10.1
11
Mason
302
10.8
12
Lansing Waverly
364
12.1
13
Lansing Everett
400
13.3
14
Jackson
405
13.6
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
10
Rachel Smith
Okemos
1.1
2
12
Lydia LaMarra
Brighton
2.9
3
10
Ella Lorenz
Brighton
3.5
4
12
October Harns
Okemos
4.1
5
12
Aviana Skinner
Grand Ledge
6.8
6
10
Lucia Llanes
Ann Arbor Skyline
8.1
7
12
Juliet Lewis
Brighton
10.1
8
12
Courtney Lince
Brighton
10.6
9
11
Isla Tharp
Ann Arbor Skyline
10.6
10
12
Selena White
Brighton
12.9
11
10
Ruby Petee
Mason
13.0
12
11
Becca Van Lent
Ann Arbor Skyline
14.7
13
10
Lila Edison
Ann Arbor Skyline
15.2
14
10
Jorga Wooledge
Mason
15.6
15
12
Fiona Whitmyer
Okemos
18.0
16
12
Elizabeth Schafer
Okemos
18.1
17
11
Kodie Snyder
Dexter
19.0
18
9
Brooke Wallace
Howell
19.2
19
12
Lydia Jagger
Grand Ledge
19.7
20
11
Ashley Lubowicki
Brighton
19.8
21
12
Adrienne Stewart
Ann Arbor Skyline
20.2
22
9
Olive DiMassa
Howell
20.3
23
12
Annie Hamilton
Brighton
23.4
24
10
Emily Barrie
East Lansing
25.3
25
9
Ava Montero
Grand Ledge
25.7
26
11
Anna Halliday
Howell
26.6
27
11
Morgan Allen
Mason
26.7
28
10
Violet Olley
Ann Arbor Skyline
27.3
29
11
Gwen Stotts-Walshe
Ann Arbor Skyline
28.2
30
12
Amelia Cribbins
Dexter
30.6
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Jack MacGregor
Howell
1.4
2
12
Ian Morgan
Okemos
1.7
3
11
Coen Hill
Dexter
3.6
4
12
Zach Wyderko
Brighton
5.4
5
10
Rylen Richey
Grand Ledge
6.7
6
11
Blake Kulesza
Brighton
7.5
7
10
Nikhil Ball
South Lyon East
10.3
8
12
Liam Preisser
East Lansing
11.3
9
12
Benjamin Rottier
Grand Ledge
12.0
10
11
Caelan Marsh
Grand Ledge
12.6
11
10
Rem Piper
Holt
12.9
12
12
Adrian Abbott-Wallace
Holt
13.6
13
10
Martin Gehrke
Ann Arbor Skyline
14.1
14
9
Hudson Doll
Ann Arbor Skyline
14.6
15
11
Matthew Guikema
Ann Arbor Skyline
16.1
16
11
Nolan Lounds
Grand Ledge
17.5
17
12
Alex McKennon
Grand Ledge
18.0
18
10
Oskar MacArthur
Ann Arbor Skyline
19.7
19
12
Bruno Cifaldi
Ann Arbor Skyline
19.7
20
10
Brendan Williams
Brighton
19.7
21
12
Evan Cummings
Brighton
20.1
22
10
Roarke MacArthur
Brighton
21.1
23
11
Nick Martens
Dexter
22.0
24
9
Josh Keillor-Beale
Brighton
22.7
25
12
Malcolm Cesario
Okemos
24.5
26
11
Garrett Comer
Ann Arbor Skyline
25.0
27
10
Alex Weller
Howell
26.4
28
10
Kilian Boulware-Lopez
East Lansing
26.6
29
9
Grant Kulesza
Brighton
29.3
30
11
David DeLand
Howell
30.1
REGION 5
Any Big Battles?
Woodhaven vs. history. If it comes to fruition, it would be the first ever state qualifier for the Warrior Boys. Individual runner-ups, many News-Herald champs, plenty of All-Staters, and those who went onto run in college. But no team. There’ve been a few occasions throughout the year where the purple crew has solidified their standing. Otsego is the most prominent, when the Warriors placed 3rd in the D1 field, six boys crossing the line in a sub-17.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Ann Arbor Pioneer
17
1.0
95+
95+
2
Saline
64
2.3
95+
3
Brownstown Woodhaven
70
2.7
95+
4
Gibraltar Carlson
131
4.1
5
Temperance Bedford
153
5.0
6
Wyandotte Roosevelt
190
6.1
7
Dearborn Fordson
213
6.9
8
Dearborn
266
8.3
9
Monroe
293
9.8
10
Allen Park
293
9.8
11
Belleville
307
10.9
12
Ypsilanti Lincoln
318
11.8
13
Ypsilanti Community
336
13.0
14
Southgate Anderson
344
13.3
15
Detroit Martin Luther King
469
15.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Ann Arbor Pioneer
32
1.0
95+
95+
2
Brownstown Woodhaven
63
2.4
95+
3
Saline
68
2.6
95+
4
Temperance Bedford
146
4.1
5
Wyandotte Roosevelt
172
5.1
6
Monroe
200
6.6
7
Dearborn Fordson
214
7.7
8
Allen Park
218
7.7
9
Dearborn
232
8.9
10
Gibraltar Carlson
235
9.1
11
Ypsilanti Community
299
11.0
12
Southgate Anderson
342
12.2
13
Dearborn Edsel Ford
374
13.4
14
Belleville
378
13.4
15
Ypsilanti Lincoln
447
15.2
16
Lincoln Park
466
15.8
17
Detroit Cass Tech
513
17.0
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
10
Natasza Dudek
Ann Arbor Pioneer
1.0
2
10
Sienna Klemmer
Ann Arbor Pioneer
2.2
3
9
Keira Von Blon
Ann Arbor Pioneer
3.4
4
12
Hana Boggess
Ann Arbor Pioneer
3.9
5
10
Savannah Staton
Saline
4.9
6
11
Lizzie Wernimont
Ann Arbor Pioneer
7.7
7
12
Lilli Schlack
Saline
8.2
8
11
Nina Moore
Ann Arbor Pioneer
9.0
9
9
Audrey Grosteffon
Temperance Bedford
10.2
10
10
Adelynn Turck
Saline
11.1
11
10
Charley McKay
Brownstown Woodhaven
11.2
12
9
Laura Forsyth
Ann Arbor Pioneer
11.4
13
11
Hope Noal
Brownstown Woodhaven
12.2
14
10
Annabelle Chan
Brownstown Woodhaven
13.4
15
12
Eleanor Grant
Wyandotte Roosevelt
13.5
16
10
Alexis Kmiecik
Brownstown Woodhaven
17.3
17
10
Jaelynn Greene
Brownstown Woodhaven
18.2
18
10
Giada Fioritto
Gibraltar Carlson
19.0
19
9
Caroline Cotner
Saline
19.4
20
9
Madison Slade
Gibraltar Carlson
20.4
21
12
Elliana Perugi
Brownstown Woodhaven
21.6
22
9
Lauren Tomaszewski
Saline
22.1
23
11
Sophie Roth
Saline
23.5
24
11
Sophia Johnson
Temperance Bedford
24.2
25
9
Serenity Clancy
Brownstown Woodhaven
25.0
26
12
Mahalia Staton
Saline
26.7
27
9
Ada Cain
Gibraltar Carlson
29.2
28
11
Maya Elachkar
Dearborn Fordson
29.6
29
10
Livia Boucher
Gibraltar Carlson
30.5
30
9
Emma Puscas
Wyandotte Roosevelt
30.9
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Kamari Ronfeldt
Ann Arbor Pioneer
1.3
2
12
Beckett Crooks
Ann Arbor Pioneer
1.9
3
10
Mourad Algahmi
Dearborn Fordson
3.7
4
11
Jacob Szalay
Saline
5.3
5
12
Thomas DeJesus
Ann Arbor Pioneer
6.4
6
12
Pierce Scheffler
Brownstown Woodhaven
7.2
7
12
Brennan Larusso
Saline
9.3
8
12
Theo Sacks Thomas
Ann Arbor Pioneer
9.3
9
12
Alex Vazquez
Brownstown Woodhaven
11.8
10
11
Noah Amori
Wyandotte Roosevelt
11.9
11
JR
Noah Amori
Brownstown Woodhaven
12.8
12
11
Cameron Varner
Temperance Bedford
13.0
13
11
Vincent Jones
Brownstown Woodhaven
13.5
14
11
Colin Courage
Ann Arbor Pioneer
13.7
15
12
Dane Hieronimus
Temperance Bedford
14.5
16
11
Jacob Cole
Saline
16.5
17
11
Rami Bazzi
Dearborn
18.0
18
11
Walker Ledbetter
Ann Arbor Pioneer
18.0
19
11
Calen Alexander
Brownstown Woodhaven
19.2
20
10
Asher Sikma
Ann Arbor Pioneer
19.3
21
10
Wes Rogan
Saline
20.3
22
11
Ryan Rummel
Saline
24.7
23
9
Gavin Bast
Saline
24.8
24
10
Zachary Greene
Wyandotte Roosevelt
25.5
25
11
Carter Mitton
Saline
27.0
26
12
Owen Putz
Brownstown Woodhaven
27.6
27
12
Abdu Eljahmi
Dearborn Edsel Ford
28.0
28
11
Maddi Duke
Temperance Bedford
28.4
29
9
Jaden Hill
Allen Park
28.6
30
11
Mohamed Aljahmi
Dearborn Fordson
29.0
REGION 6
Any Big Battles?
Don’t worry, all the schools are included. Aiden Pengelly, quietly on the comeback trail from track, will look to claim another individual championship for Canton. I wouldn’t sleep on Austin Mercado, the Salem junior who is progressing quite quickly.
It’s likely gonna be between Plymouth and Salem for the team title. Plymouth is on its traditional late season rise, hoping to spoil the Rocks, who’ve been at the forefront of Wayne County all season.
Back here in early October, Salem placed six boys under the 17 min. barrier, the white singlets packed up and displacing many fools. A 35+ point win over Churchill and Plymouth. But in a more competitive KLAA field, Plymouth was able to close that gap. 12 points separated the two teams, the lessened difference impacted greatly by Adrian Clarke and Dylan Kosik, running the rare PR on the Bennett Park course.
Whomever wins, it’ll be earned.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Livonia Churchill
43
1.1
92
95+
2
Ann Arbor Huron
62
2.2
7
95+
3
Salem
71
2.8
95+
4
Canton
109
4.5
5
Plymouth
110
4.6
6
Livonia Franklin
138
6.2
7
Livonia Stevenson
147
6.7
8
Dearborn Heights Crestwood
221
8.0
9
Wayne Memorial
304
9.5
10
Westland John Glenn
304
9.5
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Salem
42
1.2
84
95+
2
Plymouth
58
2.0
16
95+
3
Livonia Churchill
74
2.8
95+
4
Canton
115
4.2
5
Ann Arbor Huron
132
4.9
6
Detroit U-D Jesuit
164
6.1
7
Livonia Stevenson
194
7.1
8
Westland John Glenn
215
7.8
9
Livonia Franklin
275
9.1
10
Wayne Memorial
308
10.3
11
Detroit Renaissance
322
10.9
12
Dearborn Heights Crestwood
346
12.3
13
Ferndale
348
12.5
14
Detroit Mumford
447
14.0
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Leena Shelgikar
Ann Arbor Huron
1.0
2
9
Maribelle Kofahl
Ann Arbor Huron
2.1
3
12
Mackenzie Dicken
Plymouth
3.5
4
12
Rianna Radulescu
Livonia Churchill
4.8
5
12
Becca Jud
Salem
5.7
6
12
Rachael Halkey
Livonia Churchill
6.2
7
9
Ella Hanner
Salem
8.2
8
11
Julie Schuessler
Livonia Churchill
9.4
9
12
Natalie Workman
Livonia Churchill
10.0
10
11
Samantha Bartell
Salem
10.2
11
10
Maddie Vargo
Livonia Churchill
12.9
12
11
Addie Jones
Salem
13.0
13
10
Sadie Bohnsack
Ann Arbor Huron
13.5
14
So
Clare Davidson
Canton
13.8
15
12
Sarah Wazne
Dearborn Heights Crestwood
17.4
16
11
Kerrington Fields-McCurdy
Livonia Stevenson
18.3
17
10
Lucy Morrow
Livonia Franklin
18.4
18
12
Kinsey Nordbeck
Livonia Franklin
19.2
19
12
Mia Fernandez
Canton
20.1
20
11
Liv Brody
Canton
20.3
21
10
Mira Shelgikar
Ann Arbor Huron
20.7
22
11
Isabella Rushlow
Plymouth
21.5
23
9
Khaya Pierson
Livonia Stevenson
23.4
24
9
McKenzie Stearns
Canton
25.5
25
9
Olivia Kelly
Livonia Stevenson
25.7
26
11
Emma Slater
Livonia Franklin
26.9
27
11
Chelsea Lai
Plymouth
27.3
28
11
Jordan Pope
Livonia Franklin
30.3
29
12
Caroline LaPointe
Plymouth
30.6
30
11
Harper Pinto
Ann Arbor Huron
30.7
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Aiden Pengelly
Canton
1.3
2
11
Austin Mercado
Salem
2.7
3
12
Lucas LaPointe
Plymouth
2.7
4
12
Hudson Wojtkowicz
Livonia Churchill
5.2
5
11
Jack Hanner
Salem
6.4
6
11
Samuel Batt
Salem
7.0
7
10
Lucas Brumo
Livonia Stevenson
7.1
8
11
Tyler Bjorklund
Livonia Churchill
10.2
9
12
Adrian Clarke
Plymouth
11.0
10
12
Daniel Niehaus
Plymouth
12.3
11
12
Jaden Ding
Salem
14.5
12
11
Justin Mkrtumian
Detroit U-D Jesuit
16.2
13
11
Owen Dalebout
Salem
16.2
14
11
Kamden O’Donnell
Canton
16.4
15
10
Conrad Marra
Ann Arbor Huron
16.8
16
11
Dylan Kosik
Plymouth
18.0
17
12
Tony D’Orazio
Livonia Churchill
18.7
18
10
Landen Martell
Plymouth
20.0
19
12
Tommy Buckalew
Westland John Glenn
20.5
20
12
Parker Szymczak
Salem
20.6
21
12
Joey Brake
Livonia Churchill
21.8
22
11
Adam Burns
Salem
21.9
23
9
Jack Caveney
Plymouth
22.1
24
12
TJ Conley
Ann Arbor Huron
22.6
25
9
Troy Verhelle
Livonia Churchill
22.8
26
9
Matthew Keefer
Livonia Churchill
24.3
27
10
Aarav Kalantry
Ann Arbor Huron
24.7
28
11
William Balasia
Detroit U-D Jesuit
27.9
29
11
Leonardo Reyes
Plymouth
28.0
30
11
Elliot Condevaux
Livonia Churchill
29.7
REGION 7
Any Big Battles?
Um, really nothing? Of course I say that and a team that always defies the ranks might advance. That’s usually White Lake Lakeland. The Eagles will need their full lineup in action. One of the occasions that occurred was in a tri against Walled Lake Northern and Milford. Given the results there, one can extrapolate a world where Lakeland challenges for a top-three spot.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Northville
41
1.0
95+
95+
2
Novi
80
2.0
95+
3
White Lake Lakeland
111
3.0
95+
4
Royal Oak
151
4.6
5
Bloomfield Hills
156
5.1
6
Walled Lake Northern
175
6.2
7
Farmington
185
7.1
8
Berkley
198
8.0
9
Birmingham Seaholm
203
8.3
10
Beverly Hills Groves
233
9.7
11
Walled Lake Central
279
10.9
12
North Farmington
353
12.2
13
West Bloomfield
391
13.4
14
Walled Lake Western
397
13.4
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Northville
25
1.0
95+
95+
2
Detroit Catholic Central
99
2.3
95+
3
Novi
109
2.8
95+
4
Walled Lake Northern
142
4.5
5
White Lake Lakeland
145
4.7
6
Royal Oak
167
5.7
7
Beverly Hills Groves
232
7.8
8
West Bloomfield
242
8.6
9
Berkley
259
9.6
10
North Farmington
260
9.8
11
Farmington
277
11.0
12
Bloomfield Hills
277
10.9
13
Walled Lake Western
308
13.0
14
Brother Rice
341
13.5
15
Birmingham Seaholm
388
14.8
16
Walled Lake Central
510
16.0
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
9
Alexandra Scappaticci
Northville
1.2
2
11
Katelynn Egli
Novi
3.5
3
11
Lucia Lachapelle
Northville
4.0
4
9
Giada Mills
Beverly Hills Groves
7.5
5
11
Anna Macdonald
Royal Oak
9.5
6
11
Maya Pletzer
White Lake Lakeland
9.6
7
10
Paige Rohda
Berkley
9.8
8
10
Alexandra Green
Birmingham Seaholm
10.0
9
12
Kierra Magner
Farmington
11.2
10
11
Allie Gallagher
Walled Lake Northern
12.0
11
12
Annabelle Beloiu
Northville
12.0
12
10
Claire Galas
Novi
13.5
13
11
Katelyn Parrish
Farmington
14.0
14
9
Brynn Somers
Northville
14.4
15
12
Mya Tass
Novi
17.5
16
11
Colette Lozo
Northville
18.0
17
10
Maya Zakrzewski
Walled Lake Northern
18.1
18
9
Claire Lawrence
Bloomfield Hills
19.9
19
11
Morgan Scally
White Lake Lakeland
20.7
20
10
Tatum Mooradian
Northville
21.0
21
12
Addison Herr
Bloomfield Hills
22.5
22
9
Ella Corby
Northville
23.8
23
9
Ella German
Novi
23.8
24
11
Gabby Marino
White Lake Lakeland
26.1
25
9
Jessica Philip
Novi
27.0
26
11
Olivia Dixon
Birmingham Seaholm
27.9
27
12
Sarah Stein
North Farmington
28.4
28
11
Olivia Jenney
Bloomfield Hills
28.5
29
12
Laura Jonas
Novi
28.8
30
12
Lucy VanHaerents
Royal Oak
28.9
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Brandon Cloud
Northville
1.6
2
12
Benjamin Hartigan
Northville
2.1
3
12
Ethan Hertza
Northville
4.9
4
11
Trevor Baptist
Novi
5.1
5
10
Brady Glon
Detroit Catholic Central
6.1
6
12
Ryan Stojov
Northville
10.5
7
11
Devin Lau
Farmington
11.4
8
12
Colton Blackburn
Northville
11.5
9
12
Gavin Tisch
Detroit Catholic Central
11.7
10
12
Nikola Dahlgren
Walled Lake Northern
11.8
11
12
Finn Gammerath
Walled Lake Northern
11.8
12
10
Emmanuel Coates
Northville
12.7
13
9
Lucas Naspinsky
White Lake Lakeland
12.8
14
12
Alex Hamilton
North Farmington
13.0
15
12
Brenden Humitz
White Lake Lakeland
15.2
16
11
Musa Kay
West Bloomfield
15.5
17
11
Beckett Sipes
Royal Oak
17.6
18
9
Luke Kramer
Detroit Catholic Central
18.6
19
11
Keats Rosenbrock
Royal Oak
19.8
20
11
Jack Lewis
Northville
20.3
21
10
Aarush Vijay
Novi
21.7
22
10
John McCann
Novi
23.8
23
12
Liam Aiuto
Royal Oak
24.0
24
10
Owen Nelms
White Lake Lakeland
24.1
25
11
Tyler Hennessey
Berkley
27.7
26
10
Asher Lawson
Walled Lake Northern
28.3
27
10
Oliver Borek
Detroit Catholic Central
33.0
28
12
Isaac German
Novi
33.3
29
11
Coplin Serota
Brother Rice
33.7
30
10
Josh Hilliard
Berkley
33.9
REGION 8
Any Big Battles?
What do you base it on?
Is it the OAA Red Championship, where Rochester and Oxford were 2nd and 3rd, operating at a 10+ point gap over 4th through 6th.
Do you look back to the Oakland County Championship, where Troy and Rochester Adams split the spots between Oxford and Rochester.
One aspect you can seemingly count on is the Wildcat ability to pack up. At both the county and league level, Oxford was able to have, at the most, a 22 sec. difference between their 1st and 5th. Also, Oxford’s 5th runner was the best of both competitions.
By the numbers, neitherTroy or Rochester ran their best at either meet. For the Falcons, one of their better efforts on the year was at Jackson, with four boys sub-16:50, finishing just ahead of Troy. The Colts may have been behind there, but excel on the tougher courses such as Holly, where they actually beat Oxford, all scorers under 17:30 through those tight turns and steep hills.
Clintonwood is fast and it’ll be burning for those seeking another week of action.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Rochester
42
1.1
86
95+
2
Rochester Adams
53
1.9
14
95+
3
Clarkston
78
3.0
95+
4
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
106
4.0
5
Troy
158
6.0
6
Lake Orion
159
6.0
7
Oxford
174
7.1
8
Utica Ford
175
7.0
9
Troy Athens
256
9.0
10
Warren Mott
337
10.8
11
Sterling Heights Stevenson
345
11.2
12
Waterford Kettering
349
11.6
13
Warren Cousino
359
12.4
14
Waterford Mott
420
14.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Clarkston
53
1.0
95+
95+
2
Troy
98
3.0
66
3
Oxford
99
3.1
61
4
Rochester
99
3.1
68
5
Rochester Adams
120
4.9
5
6
Lake Orion
138
6.0
7
Troy Athens
166
7.0
8
Utica Ford
205
8.5
9
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
210
8.7
10
Sterling Heights Stevenson
243
9.8
11
Waterford Kettering
381
11.2
12
Warren Mott
399
13.1
13
Waterford Mott
405
12.8
14
Warren Cousino
407
13.0
15
Sterling Heights
425
14.9
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
El McMahan
Rochester Adams
1.1
2
12
Ella Abraham
Rochester
2.5
3
9
Jessica Soldan
Rochester Adams
3.5
4
12
Leah Corby
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
3.9
5
9
Abigail Deering
Rochester Adams
5.4
6
10
Charlotte Jones
Rochester
6.0
7
12
Audrey Hamilton
Troy
7.2
8
11
Avery DeGrendel
Clarkston
8.8
9
12
Taylor Parsons
Rochester
9.8
10
11
Adrienne Jones
Rochester
12.5
11
11
Linda Lopez
Lake Orion
13.0
12
12
Sydney Fischer
Clarkston
13.2
13
10
Sienna Chapin
Oxford
14.4
14
10
Maren Greve
Rochester
16.2
15
12
Cecilia Kreiter
Rochester Adams
16.9
16
10
Amelia Garvin
Clarkston
17.1
17
9
Annabelle Shaw
Clarkston
18.8
18
11
Tessa Kozlowski
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
20.3
19
11
Addison Brigham
Clarkston
21.2
20
10
Riah Guoin
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
22.1
21
11
Natalie Meldrum
Lake Orion
23.7
22
10
Hailey Lan
Troy
24.8
23
12
Gianna D’Angelo
Utica Ford
26.7
24
9
Clare O’Reilly
Troy Athens
27.1
25
11
Lexi Schwartz
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
27.6
26
12
Emma Miller
Utica Ford
27.9
27
11
Kendal Russette
Clarkston
28.4
28
9
Aryana Givans
Rochester
28.9
29
9
Maddie Deering
Rochester Adams
29.2
30
11
Annie Roraff
Rochester
30.6
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
David Dubeck
Clarkston
1.9
2
12
Max Houvener
Lake Orion
3.1
3
12
Nathaniel Linden
Troy Athens
3.8
4
12
Ryan Barnes
Clarkston
4.3
5
12
Dylan Pascoe
Rochester
5.1
6
12
Evan Owczarek
Rochester
6.0
7
12
Gavin Wilkins
Rochester Adams
9.8
8
10
Asa Konwinski
Troy
10.4
9
10
Oscar Wordell
Rochester Adams
10.4
10
9
Avery Clinton-Barnett
Oxford
13.6
11
11
Vern Clyne
Clarkston
13.7
12
10
Lucas Campbell
Rochester
13.8
13
12
Anthony Dubeck
Clarkston
16.3
14
10
Aidan Schwalbach
Rochester Hills Stoney Creek
17.0
15
12
Isaac Clark
Troy
17.9
16
10
Ricardo Guajardo
Lake Orion
19.4
17
12
Cayden Canham
Oxford
19.6
18
11
Ethan Christoff
Oxford
20.1
19
10
Cooper McNaughton
Clarkston
20.1
20
12
Matthew Buchanan
Oxford
20.3
21
11
Colin Blachford
Troy Athens
20.6
22
11
Jack Witt
Troy
21.0
23
11
Henry Witt
Troy
21.6
24
11
Jesse Reed
Rochester Adams
23.9
25
9
Luis Nava
Lake Orion
24.7
26
10
Brady Bigelow
Oxford
25.9
27
12
Joey Light
Troy
27.2
28
11
Luke Nagy
Rochester Adams
27.6
29
11
Miles Foster
Clarkston
28.1
30
11
Conner McLaughlin
Rochester
30.3
REGION 9
Any Big Battles?
The numbers show a single point separating the UCS schools. I wouldn’t count out Fraser, who in 2024 was a constant thorn in the projections’ side. The Ramblers have had the occasional meet where they’ve shown the ability to qualify. Otsego is an example, all five Fraser boys at 17:15 or below.
But in this Macomb County centric region (side note: is it weird that Utica Ford is over at Region 8?), we look to the Macomb County Championship. Five points separated Utica Eisenhower and Utica. The Chieftains gained an advantage early and held on through their 4th and 5th guys. Eisenhower gained 6 points from their final two scorers, not enough to overcome the 11 point difference between each top-three. But it’s so dang close, as the average gap between the two at each spot was 7 seconds. It might not even be the two above schools that determine their place, another random runner could slide in or out of those gaps and send a team into frenzy when the results come in.
My favorite and most controversial posts of the year!
The rankings and ratings from each race and each week are one aspect of the work that I do, this is another. These take those ratings and the variability from a runner’s resume, then apply that to a projection.
An explanation from previous years that still holds true:
Through a season’s worth of speed ratings, one can determine a runner’s average rating and the variability of those ratings. Both those factors are then weighed towards more recent meets, which are then simulated thousands of times using a Monte Carlo analysis (also described by TullyRunners here). Over those thousands of race simulations, one can determine a team’s average place and average score, a runner’s average place, odds on winning, and odds on qualifying.
These are useful in cross country scenarios, where you have consistent runners and those who are a bit more up and down. For example:
Tanner Time
Tanner Rating
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev.
15:30
210
15:45
205
16:00
200
16:15
195
16:30
190
200
7.91
MIXCSR Time
MIXCSR Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev.
16:09
197
16:12
196
16:15
195
16:18
194
16:21
193
195
1.58
Jacob at his best might be faster than I in four of the five races during the season. I’d almost never be All-State in Division 1, but he might contend for a top-5 spot or place 60th.
If we did 20 simulations, this is how it might turn out:
Race
Tanner Avg.
Tanner StDev
Tanner Rating
MIXCSR Avg.
MIXCSR StDev
MIXCSR Rating
1
200
7.9
202.1
195
1.6
195.6
2
200
7.9
196.2
195
1.6
194.1
3
200
7.9
190.0
195
1.6
199.2
4
200
7.9
193.4
195
1.6
192.5
5
200
7.9
206.8
195
1.6
195.7
6
200
7.9
201.8
195
1.6
196.1
7
200
7.9
171.6
195
1.6
194.9
8
200
7.9
189.2
195
1.6
195.9
9
200
7.9
205.5
195
1.6
197.0
10
200
7.9
203.8
195
1.6
192.6
11
200
7.9
192.3
195
1.6
196.5
12
200
7.9
196.9
195
1.6
196.4
13
200
7.9
198.5
195
1.6
195.6
14
200
7.9
203.2
195
1.6
194.1
15
200
7.9
193.9
195
1.6
192.6
16
200
7.9
199.3
195
1.6
193.2
17
200
7.9
208.7
195
1.6
194.2
18
200
7.9
213.7
195
1.6
194.6
19
200
7.9
212.6
195
1.6
197.1
20
200
7.9
206.3
195
1.6
193.9
I’d win four times, but I’d never have the ability to win a title like he had in Race 18. He’s usually All-State, but may cost his team a title through his effort in Race 7.
The simulations give the possibilities of those scenarios and all the various scoring scripts. A sixth girl that can pop off on any certain day, a reliable boy who always runs 17-flat, you name it. Hopefully, they better elucidate our contenders, qualifiers, and how these races play out over the weekend.
At the regional level, the projections were pretty darn accurate. I gave qualifying odds for the top-3 spots and ended up thinking I’d be accurate on 198 of the teams, the final total ended up being 197. The State level was a different story, where a few wholly unexpected teams hit the podium.
With that in mind, these simulations are a bit different than last year. Last year’s sample filtered out a runner’s lesser performances, which was fine in the regional setting, but didn’t account for the otherworldly MIS efforts that the Saline/Saugatuck boys had. In an attempt to capture more of the variant State Final performances, the samples for 2025 contain all of the invites and championship meets, hopefully giving more of an idea of how one performs when going to the well.
I should also mention that in order to be included, a runner had to take part in a rated race over the past 4 weeks. This will attempt to account for injuries.
Hopefully these can give an accurate portrayal of what’s to come, help with a little added motivation, or give a calming confidence. As accurate as they potentially could be, I live for the tales of the underdogs and look forward to hearing about (respectfully, of course) those unseen triumphs.
The boys’ side is a bit simpler, the girls’ a little more complex. All year, the Cedar Springs boys have been the class of the region. They’re deep, with a total of ten RedHawks busting through into the 17’s or below. At a tough day over at the BNC Championship, Petoskey showed it has the quality of runners capable of being a bit ahead of the groupings here. Whitehall and Spring Lake seem to be the ones chasing. Whitehall, led by Bobby Jazwinski and followed by Rex Pumford/Hunter Parsons, is exceptionally strong up front. Spring Lake is a bit more even across the board. We saw this play out at Portage, where the Lakers gained 100+ points on the Vikings with their 3rd through 5th man. With a huge caveat, of course, no Parsons for Whitehall (he’s been back).
A tad more complexity for the girls, three teams in the running for two spots. Clare takes the trek over from mid-Michigan and also Division 3. They’re the ones on a roll, snapping a decades long JPC streak held by Shepherd, six Pioneers sub-21 on the quick Shepherd course.
Despite 45 min. separating the two schools, Cedar Springs and Fremont have not faced one another. But that’s why we do these ratings – to give our best effort at these scenarios! This isn’t a perfect tool of comparison, but the two squads have the highest top-five averages at a single meet. For Fremont, it was early in the year at home in the WMC Mega, five Packers placing in the top-13. The RedHawks had similar success in a friendly environment, two girls sub-20 and all sub-22 at their home invite. Benzie will be the home for these two plus Clare, and the projections believe that Cedar Springs’ edge lies in the RedHawk top three, just enough of an advantage to be a slight favorite.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Cadillac
63
1.2
80
95+
2
Spring Lake
71
1.8
20
95+
3
Cedar Springs
114
3.7
45
4
Clare
119
4.1
33
5
Fremont
121
4.2
22
6
Fruitport
171
6.3
7
Gaylord
192
7.5
8
Ludington
193
7.5
9
Gladwin
228
9.4
10
Petoskey
229
9.6
11
Howard City Tri-County
254
10.7
12
Whitehall
346
12.2
13
Big Rapids
362
12.9
14
Muskegon Oakridge
397
13.9
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Cedar Springs
86
1.5
64
95+
2
Petoskey
97
2.0
31
95+
3
Whitehall
121
3.4
54
4
Spring Lake
123
3.5
49
5
Howard City Tri-County
152
5.2
6
Fremont
189
7.1
7
Gladwin
198
7.5
8
Clare
202
7.5
9
Ludington
227
9.2
10
Muskegon Oakridge
232
9.4
11
Cadillac
253
10.7
12
Gaylord
272
11.9
13
Big Rapids
281
12.4
14
Fruitport
329
13.9
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Katie Berkshire
Gaylord
1.0
2
9
Eliza Schwass
Ludington
2.8
3
11
Annabelle Lowman
Ludington
3.3
4
12
Brooklynn Brown
Cadillac
4.9
5
11
Ella McInerney
Cadillac
5.5
6
12
Alexis Kotkowicz
Spring Lake
5.5
7
12
Linnea Paige
Fremont
7.8
8
11
Emory Smith
Cedar Springs
8.7
9
9
Hailey Kuhn
Cadillac
10.1
10
11
Cora Parker
Spring Lake
10.9
11
10
Chloe Mazza
Cadillac
13.1
12
10
Kaleigh Clark
Spring Lake
14.4
13
11
Sophia Buzzelli
Clare
14.7
14
10
Peyhton Beardsley
Fruitport
15.0
15
10
Addy Nesbitt
Cedar Springs
15.1
16
12
Ava Pawlick
Petoskey
15.9
17
9
Myah Breuker
Fremont
16.6
18
11
Abby Noorman
Cedar Springs
18.8
19
9
Alison Villa-Bilton
Clare
19.2
20
9
Charly Braidwood
Spring Lake
21.6
21
9
Matia Battjes
Spring Lake
22.7
22
11
Zoe German
Fruitport
23.5
23
12
Joelle Patten
Fremont
23.8
24
12
Meghan Guczwa
Spring Lake
26.2
25
11
Elizabeth Letherer
Clare
27.4
26
10
Vivian O’Callaghan
Gladwin
28.0
27
11
Lauren Leis
Clare
30.8
28
9
Natalie Christoffersen
Fremont
31.0
29
9
Evelayna Szajner
Gaylord
31.1
30
12
Anna Pake
Howard City Tri-County
31.6
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Robert Jazwinski III
Whitehall
1.0
2
12
Ben Verellen
Gladwin
4.2
3
11
Owen Adams
Spring Lake
4.6
4
12
Zahar Rush
Petoskey
5.8
5
12
Aiden Weller
Cedar Springs
5.8
6
11
Gabe Grierson
Ludington
6.4
7
11
Reeve Oberman
Petoskey
9.5
8
10
Rex Pumford
Whitehall
9.9
9
12
Hunter Parsons
Whitehall
12.7
10
11
Lukas Albright
Big Rapids
14.4
11
11
Bryce Falbe
Muskegon Oakridge
14.7
12
12
Alex Culver
Howard City Tri-County
15.1
13
10
Christian Pavlige
Fruitport
15.1
14
11
Samuel Organ
Cedar Springs
15.7
15
11
Peyton Farrell
Cedar Springs
18.2
16
9
Colton Mulder
Cadillac
20.2
17
12
Lukus Mendoza
Spring Lake
20.8
18
11
Myles Robinson
Gladwin
22.2
19
11
Jack Frentz
Petoskey
22.7
20
12
Rocket Wilson
Howard City Tri-County
23.3
21
10
Tadhg Shoffner
Cedar Springs
23.4
22
11
Connor Schmidt
Clare
25.5
23
12
Caleb Lamblin
Gaylord
25.5
24
11
Mossen Green
Fremont
25.8
25
9
Dane Trask
Spring Lake
26.6
26
10
Tate Smith
Fremont
26.9
27
12
Simon Licata
Petoskey
28.5
28
10
Kelan Monreal
Howard City Tri-County
30.1
29
12
Clayton Peacock
Clare
30.4
30
10
Gabe Piach
Gladwin
33.0
REGION 11
Any Big Battles?
The third spot for both genders. Tiny gaps projected between the Sparta boys and their foes from Grand Rapids Catholic Central, an equal difference thought to be found in the sparring match of the Hudsonville Unity Christian and Holland girls.
For Holland, their final five races have all featured Unity Christian as a counterpart. The first four all ended in the same result – a loss, typically by a single spot in the standings. Smaller fields, bigger fields, conference, invitationals, it didn’t make a difference as the Crusaders were able to come in clutch down the stretch of scorers, their 4th/5th girls commonly coming in a minute before the Dutch. At the OK Black Championship, the results flipped, Holland coming in ahead of HUC. Holland was able to match the Crusaders at the four spot, lessening the advantage gained in earlier meets.
Whereas the two above are well familiar with one another, Sparta and Grand Rapids Catholic Central haven’t seen one another. They share similar features and different dynamics. Mitchell Dunlap has been a consistent low stick for the Cougars. Owen Metzger and Carson Wood bring an experienced two-headed force up front for the Spartans. Each squad has a bevy of kids in the mid-18 range. The projections show that the racing bubble could be concentrated in that mid-18 area, whichever depth combination has the better day has a great chance of advancing.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Holland Christian
38
1.0
95+
95+
2
Coopersville
66
2.0
95+
3
Hudsonville Unity Christian
88
3.3
67
4
Holland
95
3.6
33
5
Allendale
147
5.0
6
Sparta
213
6.9
7
Hamilton
219
7.2
8
Hopkins
223
7.3
9
Grand Rapids Catholic Central
251
9.0
10
Grand Rapids West Catholic
266
9.7
11
South Haven
313
11.2
12
Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills
330
12.2
13
Allegan
334
12.5
14
Wyoming Lee
425
14.4
15
Comstock Park
432
14.7
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Holland Christian
52
1.0
95+
95+
2
Allendale
66
2.0
95+
3
Sparta
116
3.5
65
4
Grand Rapids Catholic Central
122
4.0
26
5
Coopersville
145
5.5
6
Holland
147
5.8
7
7
Hudsonville Unity Christian
162
6.7
8
Hopkins
185
7.6
9
Allegan
246
9.0
10
Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills
300
10.4
11
South Haven
314
11.0
12
Grand Rapids West Catholic
331
11.7
13
Hamilton
361
12.8
14
Wyoming Lee
411
14.2
15
Comstock Park
422
14.8
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
10
Avery Engbers
Holland Christian
1.3
2
11
Johanna Mulder
Holland
3.1
3
10
Oakley Osterhart
Coopersville
3.4
4
11
Mia May
Sparta
3.7
5
12
Marie Gates
Hudsonville Unity Christian
4.6
6
11
Olivia Weiss
Holland
6.1
7
11
Eliana Stob
Holland Christian
7.1
8
10
Addison Bixler
Coopersville
9.1
9
11
Ellery Lampen
Holland Christian
10.2
10
12
Layla Geurink
Holland Christian
10.3
11
10
Annika Stob
Holland Christian
10.5
12
11
Olivia Hollebeek
Holland Christian
12.1
13
9
Breslyn Klein
Coopersville
12.4
14
11
Mackenzie Huizenga
Holland Christian
12.9
15
11
Sawyer Reagan
Allendale
15.0
16
12
Jayden VandenAkker
Allegan
19.5
17
12
Lauryn Byker
Hudsonville Unity Christian
20.3
18
12
Katelynn Boyd
Hudsonville Unity Christian
21.2
19
10
Quinn McWilliams
Coopersville
21.4
20
11
Carly Bruxvoort
Hudsonville Unity Christian
22.8
21
12
Sadie Schout
Hudsonville Unity Christian
22.8
22
12
Olivia Droski
Coopersville
23.2
23
9
Megyn Allers
Coopersville
24.5
24
11
Noelle Wielhouwer
Hudsonville Unity Christian
25.4
25
9
Tessa Nienhuis
Holland
25.5
26
9
Addisyn Wood
Sparta
26.8
27
10
Ellery Rietema
Hamilton
27.5
28
10
Lexi Gibson
Holland
28.4
29
11
Riley DenHartigh
Hudsonville Unity Christian
33.3
30
9
Mia Hill
Allendale
33.6
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Mason Hill
Allendale
1.6
2
11
Mitchell Dunlap
Grand Rapids Catholic Central
2.3
3
12
Ronnie Silveira
Allendale
2.7
4
12
Aden Ashworth
Allendale
3.8
5
10
Aiden Lambers
Holland
7.4
6
9
Grant Lampen
Holland Christian
7.7
7
12
Landon Gerritsma
Holland Christian
7.9
8
12
Owen Metzger
Sparta
8.5
9
12
Carson Wood
Sparta
10.1
10
11
Cole Coffman
Holland Christian
12.4
11
10
Macen White
Holland Christian
12.4
12
10
Kash Moored
Hopkins
12.5
13
10
Caelen Gray
Holland
12.7
14
12
Jack Estelle
Hopkins
14.0
15
9
Zander Stewart
Holland Christian
14.0
16
11
Alex Ten Haken
Hudsonville Unity Christian
14.2
17
9
Zach Diller
Holland Christian
15.8
18
12
Will Johnson
Holland Christian
17.0
19
11
Kellen Chalupa
Allegan
20.2
20
12
Grant Hillary
Grand Rapids Catholic Central
20.6
21
10
Cole Raymond
Coopersville
21.8
22
10
Anthony Rushmore
Grand Rapids Catholic Central
22.9
23
9
Reuben Riemersma
Hudsonville Unity Christian
23.2
24
11
Brandon Peterson
Coopersville
27.2
25
10
Braylon Bigorowski
Coopersville
27.6
26
11
Owen VanDyke
Allendale
28.1
27
11
Rian Powers
Holland
28.6
28
10
Hagan Biehl
Sparta
29.4
29
11
Joe Janesak
Sparta
29.9
30
12
Evan Keller
Coopersville
30.4
REGION 12
Any Big Battles?
Which one of the top-ranked girls’ teams will unfortunately have to stay home? Just like the Traverse City area D4 mecca, the Grand Rapids area is ripe with excellent D2 squads. They’re greatly concentrated here, the League Week Rankings listing:
#3 Grand Rapids Christian #4 Grand Rapids South Christian #9 East Grand Rapids #12 Forest Hills Eastern
As of now, it is appearing that FHE is on the outside looking in. However, not as if there’s zero hope. At Portage, if one filters for Region 12 teams, the Hawks were only three points behind East Grand Rapids, a great advantage coming at the 5th spot. That wasn’t even the Hawks’ best performance of the year. A week prior at Allendale, the entire FHE scoring lineup was sub-21. On the other hand, East Grand Rapids can look to the past for confidence, as the Pioneers ran up a good margin on the Hawks at the OK White Championship.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Grand Rapids Christian
38
1.0
95+
95+
2
Grand Rapids South Christian
54
2.0
95+
3
East Grand Rapids
87
3.2
81
4
Forest Hills Eastern
102
3.8
19
5
GR West Michigan Aviation
176
5.8
6
Ionia
185
6.5
7
Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg
187
6.5
8
Wayland Union
197
7.3
9
Hastings
256
9.3
10
Battle Creek Pennfield
269
9.9
11
Portland
292
10.9
12
Grand River Preparatory
363
12.0
13
Lake Odessa Lakewood
395
13.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
East Grand Rapids
32
1.0
95+
95+
2
Grand Rapids Christian
54
2.0
95+
3
Forest Hills Eastern
86
3.0
95+
4
Grand Rapids South Christian
115
4.0
5
GR West Michigan Aviation
155
5.1
6
Portland
183
6.0
7
Grand River Preparatory
214
7.3
8
Wayland Union
232
8.6
9
Ionia
237
8.9
10
Middleville Thornapple-Kellogg
240
9.2
11
Lake Odessa Lakewood
299
11.0
12
Hastings
335
12.0
13
Battle Creek Pennfield
368
12.9
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Caroline Randall
Hastings
2.1
2
12
Chloe Rinzema
Grand Rapids South Christian
3.6
3
12
Lilah Poel
Grand Rapids Christian
4.4
4
10
Tiffany DeMaagd
Grand Rapids South Christian
4.4
5
10
Anneliese Passchier
East Grand Rapids
5.0
6
12
Ellie Scholma
Grand Rapids Christian
6.7
7
11
Zoe Hoekstra
Grand Rapids Christian
7.5
8
11
Adeline Armstrong
East Grand Rapids
8.3
9
9
Lily VanEyk
Grand Rapids South Christian
10.8
10
12
Annika TerBeek
Grand Rapids Christian
11.1
11
12
Jillian Clason
Forest Hills Eastern
11.4
12
11
Ahna Woltjer
GR West Michigan Aviation
12.5
13
10
Eva Lindstrom
Grand Rapids Christian
13.0
14
11
Lucy Waalkes
Grand Rapids Christian
14.2
15
10
Abree VanDenBrink
Wayland Union
16.1
16
10
Maggie Scholma
Grand Rapids Christian
17.0
17
10
Vivienne Conflitti
Forest Hills Eastern
17.2
18
9
Noelle Hulst
Grand Rapids South Christian
17.5
19
10
Lily Phillips
Forest Hills Eastern
18.6
20
9
Isabelle Oostema
Grand Rapids South Christian
20.7
21
12
Lydia Huisman
Grand Rapids South Christian
21.3
22
9
Madison Bumhoffer
Wayland Union
23.4
23
9
Lucy Straveler
East Grand Rapids
23.9
24
11
Clare Assaf
East Grand Rapids
24.8
25
9
Annalise Wiltjer
Grand Rapids South Christian
25.6
26
11
Iris Zylstra
East Grand Rapids
26.1
27
11
Ainsley Sullivan
Forest Hills Eastern
26.1
28
9
Jovie Overkamp
Ionia
27.7
29
9
Faith Antonini
Forest Hills Eastern
28.5
30
10
Ava Benedict
Ionia
30.2
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Jonah Workman
East Grand Rapids
1.3
2
10
Micah Becker
East Grand Rapids
2.5
3
12
Shephard Bower
Forest Hills Eastern
4.5
4
12
Sean Ryan
Grand Rapids Christian
5.8
5
12
Jack Edison
East Grand Rapids
6.5
6
10
Ashton Fink
Grand Rapids Christian
7.1
7
11
Steven Zawacki
Forest Hills Eastern
7.3
8
12
Asher Jager
GR West Michigan Aviation
8.1
9
12
Thad VanderLaan
Grand Rapids South Christian
11.6
10
11
Lucas Aardema
East Grand Rapids
12.0
11
12
Sam Hillary
East Grand Rapids
12.8
12
10
James Scholten-Holcom
Grand Rapids Christian
13.9
13
12
Tyler VanKuiken
East Grand Rapids
14.4
14
12
Micah Small
Grand Rapids Christian
15.4
15
10
James Scholten-Holcomb
Grand Rapids Christian
16.9
16
12
Andrew Feldpausch
Portland
17.7
17
11
Thomas Fisher
East Grand Rapids
17.8
18
10
Grayson Michels
Forest Hills Eastern
17.9
19
11
Ben Verlin
Grand Rapids South Christian
18.3
20
11
Mason Fein
Wayland Union
20.6
21
10
Jacob Kornoely
GR West Michigan Aviation
20.7
22
11
Elias DeJong
Grand Rapids Christian
20.9
23
9
Seth Sytsma
Grand Rapids Christian
23.3
24
12
Elijah Lipscomb
Grand River Preparatory
24.5
25
9
Hudson Kemper
Grand Rapids South Christian
24.6
26
11
Josiah Rozema
Grand Rapids South Christian
25.5
27
12
Ethan Manning
Wayland Union
25.6
28
12
Cooper Donovan
Forest Hills Eastern
28.4
29
12
Owen Moore
Portland
28.8
30
12
Jaxxon Thelen
Ionia
28.9
REGION 13
Any Big Battles?
The many boys’ teams that can advance. Otsego is the biggest lock of them all, winning the Wolverine Conference over many of these squads. Three Rivers had a bit of early success, both at Big Hill and Under the Lights, rolling to some of the higher top-five averages of the chase pack. At the Wolverine Conference Final, the Wildcats still held a position ahead of Edwardsburg, with the Eddies right there through four runners. Over at the SMAC Championship, Richland Gull Lake packed up their 3rd thru 5th boys, 17:27 to 17:36 to finish 5th in the D1-centric field.
But one race may be the greatest preview – Portage. The conditions couldn’t be more drastic. Just look outside your window this week and compare against the overbearing heat of that afternoon. A majority of Region 13’s teams were present and the results defied the projections, St. Joseph and Vicksburg pulling ahead when filtering for this region’s competition. Perhaps all the math is wrong.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Otsego
25
1.0
95+
95+
2
St. Joseph
106
2.2
95+
3
Richland Gull Lake
132
3.4
68
4
Plainwell
153
4.7
13
5
Sturgis
153
4.9
17
6
Stevensville Lakeshore
156
4.9
5
7
Battle Creek Harper Creek
212
7.5
8
Edwardsburg
223
8.1
9
Marshall
247
9.4
10
Niles
264
10.3
11
Vicksburg
279
11.1
12
Paw Paw
290
11.9
13
Three Rivers
291
11.8
14
Berrien Springs
352
14.3
15
Coldwater
356
14.5
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Otsego
93
1.2
81
95+
2
Richland Gull Lake
120
2.9
10
68
3
Three Rivers
125
3.3
9
60
4
Edwardsburg
130
3.6
48
5
Plainwell
143
4.6
19
6
Vicksburg
164
6.4
7
St. Joseph
172
7.3
8
Paw Paw
172
7.3
9
Battle Creek Harper Creek
202
8.9
10
Sturgis
220
9.8
11
Marshall
248
10.8
12
Coldwater
289
12.1
13
Berrien Springs
326
13.2
14
Niles
341
13.6
15
Dowagiac Union
484
15.5
16
Stevensville Lakeshore
485
15.5
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Emma Hoffman
Otsego
1.0
2
11
Lane Isom
Richland Gull Lake
2.3
3
9
Alayna Verhage
Otsego
4.2
4
10
Mai Nguyen
Plainwell
5.2
5
9
Addelyn Sabatke
Otsego
5.6
6
9
Adelyn Verhage
Otsego
6.8
7
11
Skylar Mejeur
Otsego
8.7
8
9
Vittoria Perucchetti
St. Joseph
9.6
9
12
Beatrice Perucchetti
St. Joseph
9.8
10
10
Audrey Kline
St. Joseph
9.9
11
12
Georgia Babcock
Edwardsburg
11.0
12
12
Rebekah Stachura
Otsego
12.7
13
9
Lulu Park
Sturgis
14.1
14
10
Grace Leman
Edwardsburg
14.5
15
12
Tessa Hatt
Sturgis
15.1
16
9
Taylee Fox
Otsego
16.4
17
9
Lydia Dwyer
Stevensville Lakeshore
16.7
18
9
Fiona Ryan
Plainwell
18.9
19
9
Kalynn Young
Richland Gull Lake
21.2
20
10
Alaina Dillon
Marshall
21.9
21
12
Julia Faber
Battle Creek Harper Creek
22.9
22
11
Lillie Kerr
Three Rivers
23.9
23
10
Gwen Eby
Coldwater
26.1
24
10
Molly Bruggink
Plainwell
27.1
25
9
Lena Coulston
Niles
27.9
26
12
Kate Ort
Stevensville Lakeshore
28.0
27
10
Avery Huff
Paw Paw
28.1
28
11
Lily Cummings
St. Joseph
30.9
29
11
Abbie Luckman
Stevensville Lakeshore
32.4
30
11
Hayden Lemieux
Paw Paw
33.0
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Caiden Caswell
Vicksburg
2.8
2
11
Abraham McHugh
Marshall
3.5
3
12
Charlie Brauer
Three Rivers
6.2
4
12
Kenny Sheffer
Otsego
7.0
5
11
Seth Randall
St. Joseph
7.0
6
11
Christopher Vogt
Paw Paw
7.1
7
12
George Scupham
Edwardsburg
8.0
8
11
Christian Ayres
Battle Creek Harper Creek
9.5
9
9
Jackson Pant
Richland Gull Lake
9.5
10
11
Connor Beebe
Berrien Springs
12.8
11
11
Gunnar Djerf
Otsego
13.0
12
12
Benjamin Morales
Sturgis
15.5
13
12
Hiro Nguyen
Plainwell
15.6
14
10
Carson Wiersbe
St. Joseph
16.8
15
12
Trent Hansen
Plainwell
17.3
16
11
Hunter Smith
Vicksburg
17.5
17
10
Ethan Ferguson
Edwardsburg
17.7
18
10
Landon Lindsay
Paw Paw
17.9
19
12
Jonah Zietlow
Three Rivers
18.0
20
12
Donovan Ryan
Plainwell
19.1
21
12
Cooper Gardner
Battle Creek Harper Creek
21.1
22
12
Reece Howes
Three Rivers
22.0
23
12
Gavin Markucki
Richland Gull Lake
22.5
24
9
Ryan Long
Otsego
22.6
25
9
George Whitaker
Otsego
24.6
26
10
Kaleb Koestner
Otsego
26.1
27
12
Finn Tauren
Richland Gull Lake
27.7
28
9
John Brickley
Niles
28.1
29
10
Grant Krause
Paw Paw
29.0
30
11
Grayson Campbell
Vicksburg
30.2
REGION 14
Any Big Battles?
The Capital Area teams do a wondrous job of making sure their competition stays close to home. St. Johns, Williamston, and Haslett all have gotten after one another multiple times in the CAAC Red. Charlotte has competed against them all at Greater Lansing, along with the multitudes of smaller meets across the area.
Both the area and league championships give a bit of a preview of what’s to come. For league action, Haslett was able to overwhelm both St. Johns and Williamston with its depth. The Vikings’ 5th girl, Izzy Brown, was able to slip ahead of Williamston’s 4th and had a nearly 2 min. gap on the Redwings’ 5th.
A few days earlier at Greater Lansing, St. Johns was able to derive an advantage on Ava Schafer being a low-stick, her 3 points driving a 20+ point wedge on the other three squads. Even in the large championship field, these four teams placed one after another in the standings. Friday, they’ll likely do the same, in any kind of order.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
DeWitt
56
1.0
95+
95+
2
Charlotte
109
2.9
75
3
Haslett
111
3.1
64
4
St. Johns
116
3.6
44
5
Williamston
124
4.6
17
6
Parma Western
155
6.3
7
Fowlerville
160
6.6
8
Alma
215
8.4
9
Owosso
217
8.6
10
Corunna
284
10.5
11
Eaton Rapids
288
10.6
12
Jackson Northwest
328
12.4
13
Michigan Center
333
12.6
14
Lansing Sexton
414
14.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Alma
37
1.0
95+
95+
2
Parma Western
61
2.0
95+
3
DeWitt
84
3.0
95+
4
Williamston
126
4.5
5
Owosso
131
4.9
6
Haslett
143
5.7
7
Corunna
180
7.2
8
St. Johns
202
8.0
9
Fowlerville
227
8.8
10
Jackson Northwest
307
10.2
11
Charlotte
325
10.8
12
Michigan Center
404
12.3
13
Lansing Eastern
414
13.1
14
Lansing Sexton
423
13.6
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Ava Schafer
St. Johns
1.2
2
10
Remie Ellis
Eaton Rapids
2.1
3
12
Miriam Kloha
St. Johns
3.7
4
11
Avery Silvas
Charlotte
7.4
5
10
Abby Crandell
Owosso
7.4
6
10
Bridget Fullerton
Parma Western
7.5
7
11
Colette Charchut
Haslett
7.7
8
9
Brooklyn Takagishi
DeWitt
8.2
9
10
Rory Doepker
DeWitt
9.7
10
11
Sophia Schafer
Williamston
11.2
11
9
Cecilia Kelly
Williamston
11.9
12
12
Isabella Taber
DeWitt
12.2
13
11
Natalie Kuhl
Parma Western
12.4
14
12
Maddy Takagishi
DeWitt
15.7
15
9
Dakota Budd
Haslett
15.9
16
12
Emily Agnew
DeWitt
16.3
17
10
Grace Mingerink
DeWitt
17.2
18
10
Emma Cook
DeWitt
18.9
19
12
Chloe Khon
Jackson Northwest
19.0
20
12
Andie Wildern
Charlotte
19.5
21
10
Clara Marschall
Fowlerville
19.5
22
11
Jaidyn Nickels
Corunna
22.2
23
12
Natalie Kramer
St. Johns
23.4
24
12
Abby Russell
Haslett
24.7
25
9
Kendall Dorey
Charlotte
25.1
26
12
Kate Church
Haslett
27.6
27
12
Anna Johnson
Alma
29.6
28
12
Avari Montgomery
Charlotte
29.7
29
10
Reggie Cooke
Williamston
30.1
30
11
Helena Goodrich
Charlotte
30.7
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Ezekiel Baltierra
Alma
1.7
2
12
Thomas Larson
Alma
1.8
3
12
Edison Lopeman
Parma Western
3.1
4
10
Duncan Palmer
Williamston
6.0
5
12
Aiden Marple
DeWitt
6.4
6
9
Logan Cristian
Parma Western
6.7
7
11
Ryan Good
Parma Western
9.8
8
12
Luca Lebron
Alma
10.3
9
12
Braylon Lenneman
DeWitt
10.4
10
10
Liam Dewitt
Haslett
10.9
11
10
Samuel Johnson
Alma
11.9
12
10
Teddy Weber
Williamston
12.5
13
12
Raymond Herek
Williamston
14.2
14
12
Reagan Ward
St. Johns
15.3
15
11
Kevin Terpstra
Alma
15.6
16
9
Leonidas Erfourth
Owosso
16.6
17
9
Nico Lebron
Alma
17.0
18
9
Livio Muzzin
DeWitt
18.7
19
12
Elijah Baltierra
Alma
20.1
20
11
Will Chelotti
DeWitt
20.6
21
9
Leland Sowle
Parma Western
20.9
22
11
Caleb Lynd
Parma Western
21.6
23
11
Sawyer Zeman
Haslett
25.1
24
10
Roan VanSumeren
Parma Western
27.3
25
11
Kai Miller
Owosso
27.4
26
10
Isaiah Cates
Haslett
27.9
27
12
Payton Chandler
Corunna
28.2
28
11
Ariston Dallas
Owosso
28.6
29
10
Brady Rappuhn
Owosso
29.2
30
10
Christian LeConte
Owosso
29.6
REGION 15
Any Big Battles?
Two spots for three girls teams.
Freeland and Frankenmuth, two league and county foes, alongside a rising Shepherd. The former two are right there with one another, the largest separation at county and league meets over the past month was a whopping five points. That Freeland five point victory was a month back at the 2nd TVC Jamboree, since then, Frankenmuth has claimed the two with a lesser margin.
Heck, even at the massive Bluejay Invite, the two squads were seven points apart, but that field isn’t all that comparable to the regional composition. What also isn’t comparable is how Shepherd ran at their home invite and at their final JPC Jamboree, also held in their friendly environs. An average of 33 seconds faster across their top seven, an indicator that the Bluejays are right at the level of the Falcons and Eagles.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Goodrich
48
1.0
95+
95+
2
Frankenmuth
67
2.5
86
3
Freeland
74
3.1
68
4
Shepherd
75
3.4
46
5
Imlay City
210
5.6
6
Birch Run
211
5.8
7
Saginaw Swan Valley
234
7.7
8
Flint Powers Catholic
248
8.9
9
Clio
249
9.1
10
Essexville-Garber
250
9.2
11
Flint Kearsley
257
9.8
12
North Branch
297
12.0
13
Bay City John Glenn
316
12.9
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Flint Powers Catholic
28
1.0
95+
95+
2
Shepherd
82
2.3
95+
3
Frankenmuth
90
3.3
90
4
Saginaw Swan Valley
129
4.1
7
5
Freeland
137
4.4
6
Bay City John Glenn
206
6.4
7
Flint Kearsley
212
6.7
8
Ortonville Brandon
237
8.4
9
North Branch
249
9.2
10
Goodrich
261
10.1
11
Birch Run
271
10.8
12
Imlay City
285
11.5
13
Bay City Central
314
12.9
14
Clio
337
13.9
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
12
Natalie Foltz
Frankenmuth
2.2
2
11
Clara Kaczor
Freeland
2.9
3
10
Kayla Shellenbarger
Goodrich
3.9
4
11
Alivia Ottinger
Goodrich
3.9
5
12
Elise Barden
Frankenmuth
4.2
6
10
Danica Redes
Shepherd
6.1
7
11
Kylie Mausolf
Birch Run
9.4
8
12
Samantha Brown
Clio
9.7
9
9
Katie Niederquell
Freeland
10.7
10
11
Lucy Conzelmann
Frankenmuth
11.4
11
11
Baylor Lauinger
Goodrich
11.8
12
11
Claire Arnold
Essexville-Garber
12.0
13
10
Mila Villarreal
Flint Powers Catholic
12.1
14
11
Claire Brown
Goodrich
12.5
15
10
Cailyn Baker
Shepherd
12.9
16
12
Megan Gimmey
Shepherd
15.8
17
10
Ava Clark
Goodrich
16.7
18
10
Gabriella Dallas
Freeland
17.4
19
12
Emilee Young
Shepherd
18.3
20
9
Grace Kloha
Freeland
20.9
21
10
Sarah Warner
Shepherd
22.8
22
12
Gabby Cleveland
Frankenmuth
24.2
23
11
Isabel Reinke
Freeland
25.0
24
11
Madison Moeggenborg
Shepherd
26.5
25
10
Ellie Thering
Freeland
27.4
26
11
Olivia Mielke
Freeland
27.8
27
11
Aubrey Hare
Saginaw Swan Valley
28.7
28
9
Addyson Campbell
Goodrich
29.0
29
11
Brynn Robinson
Shepherd
29.4
30
12
Madeline Dunn
Goodrich
30.6
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
10
Lennox Naswell
Flint Powers Catholic
2.1
2
12
Bryce Gross
Flint Powers Catholic
3.7
3
12
Vincent Pattison
Goodrich
4.1
4
12
Caleb Carignan
Flint Powers Catholic
6.9
5
12
Brett Magnus
Frankenmuth
7.2
6
10
Ryan Rathsburg
Flint Powers Catholic
7.7
7
11
Bryce Cahoon
Shepherd
8.5
8
12
Tommy Beiter
Flint Powers Catholic
10.7
9
11
Nick Parker
Frankenmuth
10.7
10
12
Murphy Wagner
Saginaw Swan Valley
11.2
11
12
Jacob Hylton
Ortonville Brandon
11.6
12
11
Seth Betzold
Essexville-Garber
12.6
13
11
Jakin Whitney
Shepherd
15.3
14
12
Cole Fernandez
Flint Kearsley
17.9
15
11
William McDonald
Shepherd
18.5
16
12
Henry Schanbeck
Bay City John Glenn
19.8
17
10
Griffin Solano
Flint Powers Catholic
20.2
18
12
Anthony Plana
Frankenmuth
20.9
19
11
Ben Bouchey
Flint Powers Catholic
21.2
20
9
Ryan Brown
Freeland
21.6
21
12
Ian McNeel
Shepherd
22.5
22
12
Jace Thomas
Birch Run
23.7
23
11
Spencer Dammann
Saginaw Swan Valley
25.2
24
10
Leif Briggs-Lind
Bay City John Glenn
25.8
25
12
Adam Howell
Flint Kearsley
27.3
26
11
Jaden Rodriguez
Saginaw Swan Valley
27.9
27
9
Everett Anaya
Freeland
28.9
28
12
Cole Pergram
Frankenmuth
29.0
29
11
Jackson Horn
Freeland
29.1
30
11
Braeden Conger
Frankenmuth
31.1
REGION 16
Any Big Battles?
Fenton vs. Pinckney in the boys’ race. Linden vs. Pinckney in the girls’ race. Each tight knit battle features a race against one another. The first one we’ll see includes the home team, with their course knowledge vs. Pinckney, no stranger to hills in their every day life. The Pirates did take the trek up here for the Linden Classic, defeated by 13 points, though missing Julia Garcia. On the other hand, the Linden of the last few weeks is drastically different than the one from September.
More recently, the boys of Fenton and Pinckney faced off at Gabriel Richard. This is an interesting one, perhaps entirely dependent on where the packs of points lie (side note: this is one aspect of XC I love – how scoring can change in the context of what the rest of the field is doing). Both the Pirate and Tiger frontrunners and 4th/5th guys were almost identical. Fenton’s 2nd man was at 16:08, 14 sec. and 10 places ahead of Pinckney’s #2. Pinckney’s 3rd was at 16:33, 20 sec. and 13 places ahead of Fenton’s #3. The result of the meet was a 8-point win in favor of Pinckney. The projections think that the latter gap could be greater than the former, not in terms of time, but just how this field is composed. So a bit of a margin at Hudson Mills is lessened to what is essentially a coin flip.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Pinckney
63
1.4
62
95+
2
Linden
64
1.6
38
95+
3
Bloomfield Hills Marian
108
3.1
92
4
Farmington Hills Mercy
146
4.5
6
5
Dearborn Divine Child
175
5.8
6
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
176
6.0
7
Lake Fenton
183
6.3
8
Oak Park
207
7.7
9
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
236
9.5
10
Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood
247
10.1
11
Fenton
265
11.3
12
Detroit Country Day
269
11.6
13
Madison Heights Lamphere
275
12.1
14
Garden City
437
14.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Fenton
53
1.5
51
95+
2
Pinckney
54
1.6
49
95+
3
Detroit Country Day
93
3.0
95+
4
Dearborn Divine Child
143
4.4
5
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
156
5.3
6
Linden
156
5.3
7
Oak Park
188
7.1
8
Lake Fenton
203
7.8
9
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
236
9.0
10
Madison Heights Lamphere
266
10.2
11
Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood
291
11.5
12
Garden City
293
11.4
13
Pontiac
403
13.0
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Jaelyn Ray
Pinckney
1.0
2
10
Ana Lovell
Lake Fenton
3.1
3
12
Julia Garcia
Pinckney
3.2
4
11
Addison Josephson
Linden
3.4
5
12
Nora Gerzema
Farmington Hills Mercy
7.1
6
11
Melody Meckstroth
Linden
8.6
7
9
Jordane Falvey
Dearborn Divine Child
10.0
8
10
Molly Roberts
Linden
10.3
9
10
Eastynn Charder
Pinckney
12.2
10
10
Lucy Bott
Fenton
12.6
11
11
Hannah Haines
Madison Heights Lamphere
13.6
12
12
Annabelle Ellenbogen
Detroit Country Day
14.0
13
10
Courtney Floeter
Linden
14.4
14
11
Lucille Clark
Bloomfield Hills Marian
17.4
15
10
Jade Siy
Madison Heights Lamphere
18.9
16
12
Roisin Whelan
Bloomfield Hills Marian
19.2
17
10
Gabby Schuff
Bloomfield Hills Marian
19.7
18
11
Elliana Hufton
Lake Fenton
22.1
19
10
Valyntina Garcia
Pinckney
23.1
20
9
Julia Geisz
Bloomfield Hills Marian
24.8
21
12
Brooklyn Reason
Pinckney
25.5
22
12
Elizabeth Salinas
Dearborn Divine Child
26.2
23
11
Isabella Kaminskas
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
26.7
24
10
Zahiya Khan
Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood
26.7
25
11
Diya Goyal
Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood
26.8
26
11
Leah Thomas
Oak Park
27.0
27
10
Elizabeth Gerzema
Farmington Hills Mercy
27.0
28
11
Paige Willman
Lake Fenton
28.7
29
11
Sidney Shepard
Linden
29.7
30
10
Morgan Hamilton
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
30.2
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
10
Gavin Katic
Fenton
1.6
2
11
Cole McCraw
Pinckney
2.2
3
12
Cole Wisniewski
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
4.1
4
10
Jack Hincks
Detroit Country Day
5.0
5
11
Omar Elbashir
Detroit Country Day
6.2
6
12
Brodie Licata
Lake Fenton
6.7
7
10
Gerard Gilmour
Fenton
7.1
8
9
John Rochowiak
Pinckney
8.9
9
10
Andrew Nunning
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep
10.6
10
10
Jackson Butts
Lake Fenton
11.1
11
11
Lincoln Reed
Pinckney
12.6
12
11
Ben Panter
Fenton
13.5
13
9
Alex Hagerty
Pinckney
17.0
14
11
Jackson Defina
Fenton
17.1
15
11
Caleb Maciag
Pinckney
17.4
16
12
Nate Sandula
Pinckney
19.6
17
11
Joseph Arriola
Dearborn Divine Child
20.0
18
11
Jackson Martin
Fenton
20.0
19
11
Grant Goodwin
Dearborn Divine Child
20.1
20
10
Bo Cooke
Pinckney
20.4
21
10
Landen Bermudez
Dearborn Divine Child
20.5
22
10
Abram Larsen
Fenton
20.8
23
12
Shondell Warren
Oak Park
20.9
24
11
Grant Hunault
Fenton
21.7
25
9
Hari Varma
Detroit Country Day
24.3
26
10
Ethan Bray
Detroit Country Day
26.7
27
9
Ben Socia
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s
28.4
28
10
Ben Sushynski
Linden
28.9
29
9
Kipton Smyth
Linden
32.1
30
12
Carter Johnston
Linden
33.2
REGION 17
Any Big Battles?
Wow, these teams are close. Each gender, too! A projected six points separate 2nd through 4th on the boys’ side, 14 are between 1st and 4th for the girls. St. Clair and Yale are in the mix of it for both, Macomb Lutheran North and Armada will feel the pressure in the girls’ race, and the Grosse Pointe North boys have a chance of advancing for another week.
Common competitions can give you a semblance of a clue. For instance, Yale’s girls were able to best Armada in the past two BWAC Jamborees. Or they could confuse you, as St. Clair used their depth to beat Yale at the Marysville Invite. But then if you look at a deep Holly field, St. Clair and Armada were neck and neck.
On the boys’ side, similar confusion abounds. During MAC Red meets and at Gabriel Richard, St. Clair held a significant margin over Grosse Pointe North. The most recent event for the two, Haunted Harvest, featured a GPN win, their pack tightly-wound with four boys between 17:50 and 18:10. Where St. Clair has gone, Yale has followed, extremely close in margin. Less than 5 points separated the squads at Brooks and Muskrat, the gap was 3 places at Portage. Extrapolating from that, you gotta assume that Yale > GPN, but not if it’s last week’s GPN.
Team
Girls
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Armada
64
1.7
53
95+
2
Macomb Lutheran North
72
2.6
26
69
3
St. Clair
75
2.7
14
73
4
Yale
78
3.1
7
60
5
Marysville
107
4.9
6
Croswell-Lexington
154
6.0
7
Warren Regina
194
7.3
8
Grosse Pointe North
203
7.7
9
Detroit University Prep
257
9.0
10
Harper Woods
309
10.0
Boys
Projected
Team
Avg. Score
Avg. Place
Win %
Qualify %
1
Macomb Lutheran North
45
1.1
94
95+
2
St. Clair
71
2.9
74
3
Yale
72
2.9
77
4
Grosse Pointe North
77
3.2
49
5
Marysville
106
4.9
6
Croswell-Lexington
151
6.0
7
Armada
179
7.0
8
Eastpointe
262
8.2
9
Harper Woods
272
8.8
Individual
Girls
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Samantha Whitlam
Macomb Lutheran North
1.2
2
9
Claire Albrecht
Armada
2.8
3
10
Saige Cole
Yale
3.3
4
10
Madelyn Barkley
Croswell-Lexington
5.4
5
12
Abigail Denoyer
Armada
5.9
6
12
Molly McNabb
St. Clair
8.4
7
9
Katelyn Schweihofer
Yale
8.5
8
11
Lillian Bender
Yale
9.6
9
10
Lucy Gump
Macomb Lutheran North
10.5
10
12
Joselyn Chapman
Marysville
11.1
11
9
Kamille Fitzpatrick
Armada
12.7
12
11
Ella Thornton
St. Clair
13.0
13
10
Malani May
Detroit University Prep
16.7
14
11
Avery Stallmann
Macomb Lutheran North
16.8
15
11
Abbey Morabito
St. Clair
18.2
16
11
Kenzie LeVey
Marysville
20.1
17
9
Josie Komarowski
St. Clair
20.6
18
11
Evelyn Buckley
Macomb Lutheran North
20.6
19
11
Gabriella Komarowski
St. Clair
21.1
20
11
Helena Reiff
Armada
21.8
21
11
Ava Childers
Yale
22.1
22
10
Hailey Morrison
Croswell-Lexington
22.2
23
10
Peyton Simmons
Marysville
22.4
24
9
Stella Bishop
St. Clair
23.0
25
12
Lydia McBride
Marysville
25.3
26
11
Addison Noteboom
Armada
25.5
27
10
Maylin Parish
Grosse Pointe North
25.6
28
12
Pauline Chapman
Richmond
26.5
29
10
Rachel McDonell
St. Clair
26.9
30
9
Ariana Macri
Macomb Lutheran North
27.7
Boys
Projected
Grade
Name
Team
Avg. Place
1
11
Joshua Macri
Macomb Lutheran North
1.3
2
12
Xavier Roman
Macomb Lutheran North
3.7
3
11
Ethan Kreger
St. Clair
4.6
4
12
Nolan Korolden
Yale
5.0
5
12
Brayden Prieskorn
St. Clair
6.3
6
10
Brady VanConant
Yale
8.7
7
11
Connor Pepin
Croswell-Lexington
9.8
8
12
Neil Orlowski
Grosse Pointe North
11.3
9
10
Mason Pietrykowski
Richmond
11.8
10
11
Brendan Koza
Marysville
11.8
11
11
Antonino Biondo
Macomb Lutheran North
11.8
12
12
Sam Parish
Grosse Pointe North
12.6
13
11
Logan Rhodes
Yale
12.8
14
10
Elliot Alef
Macomb Lutheran North
13.5
15
9
Caleb McBride
Marysville
14.5
16
12
Paul Stephens
Grosse Pointe North
15.0
17
11
Jeremy Johnson
Marysville
17.7
18
9
David Matthews
St. Clair
18.2
19
10
Dylan Phillips
Grosse Pointe North
18.4
20
12
Samuel Kochensparger
Macomb Lutheran North
19.1
21
12
William Haskins
Macomb Lutheran North
19.4
22
10
Griffin Kreger
St. Clair
23.4
23
12
Luke McDonell
St. Clair
23.5
24
12
Leo Bearss
Yale
23.7
25
12
Robert Carrigan
Armada
25.1
26
12
Jack Kerrigan
Croswell-Lexington
27.2
27
10
Logan Carrier
Yale
27.7
28
10
Cole Carless
Yale
27.9
29
10
William Henze
Grosse Pointe North
29.0
30
11
Korey LeVey
Marysville
29.5
REGION 18
Any Big Battles?
Chelsea vs. Adrian boys, with a hint of Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard. Luckily, we’ve got plenty of SEC White runs between the first two and Jackson/Portage between all three.
Between the Maples and Bulldogs, Adrian was able to carry the SEC White action. Barely, scraping by with small margins over Chelsea. The common theme of separation was in the middle of the pack, with kids such as Easton Coscarelli and Landin Fisher driving enough of a gap to gain enough of a point advantage.
Outside of SEC play, the Jackson Invite appears to be the closest comparison to a regional field. And there, Chelsea’s depth stepped up and closed the gap on Adrian, allowing the Bulldogs to place 2nd, just ahead of both Adrian and Gabriel Richard. And then there’s the Gabriel Richard Invite, where AAGR’s depth was ahead of Chelsea’s, enough to open up a 10-point gap in the Medium Schools division.
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 