The above infographs are from last season. I’ll make some new ones with updated stats for 2023.
With the early season ratings, a couple of notes:
Elite, more experienced runners will always be a bit overrated early. They tend to come into the season in better shape relative to the rest of the field, and thus are closer to their championship season fitness compared to someone newer to the sport.
With smaller meets, they’re not as accurate as they may be later in the year. Smaller samples and less ability to compare makes it hard to come up with an adjustment. Which explains why I’ll concentrate on the larger ones early, then work my way back toward the smaller ones.
Adversity tends to have a greater impact early. Whether that’s heat, hills, humidity, or even all three, those less fit will tend to struggle a bit more early, possibly overcooking the course adjustment.
The girls adjustment will typically be a bit more, as they’re spending more time on the course.
These will get weighed less and less as the season rolls on, meaning virtually nothing come October. As a coach, I’d stress not losing sleep over early season times. On here, I’m stressing the same thing.
Meet
Girls Adj.
Boys Adj.
Average
Leanna Wolf Geers
0
+2
+1
OCS Small School
-20
-22
-21
Hartford Teske
+20
+27
+24
Delton Kellogg
-19
-22
-21
GIRLS TEAM RATINGS
*** = within range of State title capability ** = within range of top-10 capability (both based on 2019-2021 data)
The above infographs are from last season. I’ll make some new ones with updated stats for 2023.
With the early season ratings, a couple of notes:
Elite, more experienced runners will always be a bit overrated early. They tend to come into the season in better shape relative to the rest of the field, and thus are closer to their championship season fitness compared to someone newer to the sport.
With smaller meets, they’re not as accurate as they may be later in the year. Smaller samples and less ability to compare makes it hard to come up with an adjustment. Which explains why I’ll concentrate on the larger ones early, then work my way back toward the smaller ones.
Adversity tends to have a greater impact early. Whether that’s heat, hills, humidity, or even all three, those less fit will tend to struggle a bit more early, possibly overcooking the course adjustment.
The girls adjustment will typically be a bit more, as they’re spending more time on the course.
These will get weighed less and less as the season rolls on, meaning virtually nothing come October. As a coach, I’d stress not losing sleep over early season times. On here, I’m stressing the same thing.
Girls Adjustment: -7 Boys Adjustment: -5
As always, these writeups below will shoutout someone or a team that stood out from the race. That may not be the best runner or the winning team. Perhaps a team that surprised, a runner breaking through, or a runner contributing to a team victory. Of course, if you come to me nicely and want to brag about a fellow team/competitor/teammate, let me know, and I’ll try to give them love further down the line.
BRUDER’S BEASTS
Kaya Vrable, Caro
Her 19:33 here was very close to many efforts from her successful sophomore year. But in the years’ time since last fall, there have been mountains and valleys. Summits including an All-State and top-5 finishes at Thumb Area and Region 25. Her low point was a necessary surgery in April due to a torn labrum. Being out for the spring taught her much about the sport, embracing her team, living through her teammate’s journeys, appreciating the entire experience. And those lessons have paid off, both in the patient summer build and the early season speediness. Even in last year’s podium effort, Kaya waited until late September to slip under 20. She’s already two weeks ahead of that pace.
Ezekiel Baltierra, Alma
Jazwinski, Ronfeldt, Hammond, Baker, Cahoon… I guess Zeke was tired of the other freshman getting the spotlight. After opening with a 16:55 last week at Yellowjacket, Baltierra dropped 50+ seconds, now barely on the high side of 16-flat. This rapid improvement and embrace of major competition resulted in an early season trophy for the Panthers. I trust Coach Lebron will have these boys grounded and ready to roll in October, but you can’t help and be impressed by the early success and accelerated timeline this youthful team has been on.
The above infographs are from last season. I’ll make some new ones with updated stats for 2023 (actually started working on this today!).
With the early season ratings, a couple of notes:
Elite, more experienced runners will always be a bit overrated early. They tend to come into the season in better shape relative to the rest of the field, and thus are closer to their championship season fitness compared to someone newer to the sport.
With smaller meets, they’re not as accurate as they may be later in the year. Smaller samples and less ability to compare makes it hard to come up with an adjustment. Which explains why I’ll concentrate on the larger ones early, then work my way back toward the smaller ones.
Adversity tends to have a greater impact early. Whether that’s heat, hills, humidity, or even all three, those less fit will tend to struggle a bit more early, possibly overcooking the course adjustment.
The girls adjustment will typically be a bit more, as they’re spending more time on the course.
These will get weighed less and less as the season rolls on, meaning virtually nothing come October. As a coach, I’d stress not losing sleep over early season times. On here, I’m stressing the same thing.
Girls Adjustment: +1 Boys Adjustment: NONE
As always, these writeups below will shoutout someone or a team that stood out from the race. That may not be the best runner or the winning team. Perhaps a team that surprised, a runner breaking through, or a runner contributing to a team victory. Of course, if you come to me nicely and want to brag about a fellow team/competitor/teammate, let me know, and I’ll try to give them love further down the line.
MIDNIGHT MARAUDERS
Hard to believe this classic came out 30 years ago.
Lauren Walker, Holt
She’s an unassuming junior that has finished each of the past two years running in the 18’s. Both of her best efforts in 2021 and 2022 were at Regionals, each placing in the top-10. At the beginning of her junior year, Lauren looks to be on the same trajectory, albeit faster. Her 19:10 here is the best early September mark she’s had and her second win in four races.
Jacob Essenmacher, Lapeer
Good to see that the tradition has continued since the Williams bros and Connor Martin. Jacob’s 7th place finish helped the Lightning secure the large division title and only continued his late season sophomore form. Those low-17 efforts late in his 10th grade year were a massive improvement from his freshman year, over 4 minutes quicker. Given that it’s early in the year and he hit 4:41/10:19 in track, don’t be shocked if the 16’s come soon.
Michigan XC Speed Ratings 